Risk assessment of flood disaster in Shanghai based on spatial–temporal characteristics analysis from 251 to 2000

As one of the top 20 cities exposed to flood disasters, Shanghai is particularly vulnerable because it is exposed to powerful floods and poorly prepared. However, it is unclear to understand the evolution process of floods and the variation of flood risk in Shanghai during the past 1,000 years. This paper analyzed the spatial–temporal characteristics of flood disaster and evaluated the integrated risk of flood disaster in Shanghai based on the historical flood data from 251 to 2000. The results show that flood disaster in Shanghai was divided into storm surge-induced flood, rainstorm-induced flood and overbank flood. Flood disaster in Shanghai presents rising trend with time and mainly occurs in summer and autumn. Moreover, the flood disaster is dominated by rainstorm-induced flood, especially after the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. Additionally, flood risk in different areas of Shanghai between the years 251–1949 and 1950–2000 changed significantly. Shanghai urban area, Jinshan District and Chongming County belong to increased flood risk area; Baoshan, Jiading, Qingpu, Songjiang, Fengxian, Pudong and Minhang District belong to decreased flood risk area. The integrated risk of flood disaster in Shanghai has presented spatial disparities evidently at present. Shanghai urban area is most likely to suffer flood disaster; Baoshan, Jiading and Minhang District have medium flood risk rank; and Jinshan, Songjiang, Fengxian, Pudong, Qingpu and Chongming County show low flood risk at present. The combined effect of urbanization, sea-level rise, land subsidence and the poor capacity of flood prevention facilities will give rise to the risk of flood in the next several decades. These results provide very important information for the local government to improve flood risk management.     

Landscape features and potential heat hazard threat: a spatial–temporal analysis of two urban universities

Urban universities are a microcosm of urban built-up areas, such as cities, but with a much smaller scale of spatial resolution. Within universities, there are many types of landscape features exhibiting different heat absorption and transmission capacities. These landscape features generate spatial–temporal heat signatures, and the knowledge about landscape features and urban heat hazard on university campuses is limited. The objective of this research is an assessment of landscape features and the potential heat hazard threats of two urban universities in ASEAN, located in the centre of the equatorial region. The focus of this research is on urban heat hazards in two urban universities in ASEAN, the University of Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur and the University of Indonesia in Jakarta, within the context of the spatial–temporal behaviour of urban heat and the urban heat effects on the environment and human well-being on campuses. The spatial and temporal analysis used to answer the objective of this research via data-gathering methods from image satellite, ground trough, and human perception study. The UM campus and UI campus, both urban campuses, had similar landscape features but had different total percentage areas of these features. The UM campus was 59.1% covered by the densely vegetated surface landscape feature, a percentage lower than that of the UI campus, which was 65.3% vegetation covered. The temporal results for the UHS of the UM campus in 2013–2016 show a maximum temperature of 39 °C. Therefore, the UHS of the UI campus demonstrated temporal behaviour in 2013–2016, with a maximum temperature of 38 °C. The UHS behaviour of the UM campus and UI campus had an air surface temperature with a maximum average temperature of 33 °C. The air surface temperatures exceeding 32 °C at the UM campus (12 pm until 6 pm?=?5 h) lasted for a longer time than those at the UI campus (12 pm until 3 pm?=?3 h). This study showed that, based on the perceptions on both campuses, if temperatures exceeded 30 °C, respondents were very hot and very uncomfortable, which will impact health and decrease work or academic achievements, as perceptions of heat intensity impact human well-being. Students perceived that heat intensity impacted their health and they reported becoming tired and lethargic under maximum temperatures and were very hot and very uncomfortable, and this condition impacted their work activity. These results indicated that, at both the UM and UI campuses, heat intensity impacts human well-being, with risks associated with hot temperatures. These two urban campuses are significant for ASEAN university awareness of the urban heat hazard of the equatorial area.     

Flexible–inflexible: socio-demographic,spatial and temporal dimensions of flat sharing in Leipzig (Germany)

Flat sharers are one of the most distinct representatives of the ‘new’ household types, but have received only very limited attention from researchers. Back in the 1960s shared flats were usually founded with a strong ideological impetus, whereas flat sharing nowadays is just one household type among many others. Typically, this housing arrangement consists of at least two young adult individuals without children. Sharing the flat and the housing costs is the basis of their relationship but living with others is an additional motive. As a rule, flat sharing bridges two distinct events in the course of one’s life: the leaving of the parental home and the foundation of the first independent household. Thus for a restricted period in time, it is a flexible household type adapted to the situational needs of its members. Germany has one of the strongest and longest traditions of flat sharing in Europe, especially among university students. An explorative study was conducted in Leipzig to come to a deeper understanding of what flat sharing means in its ambivalence of being both an economic unit and a social arrangement. Based on qualitative and quantitative evidence from group discussions and Internet adverts, we shed light on the highly under-researched social practice of flat sharing. We will show that despite the structural flexibility of this household type, there is also evidence for its socio-demographic selectivity, spatial concentration and temporal limitation over the individual life courses.     

Understanding regional development mechanisms in Greater Beijing Area,China, 1995–2001, from a spatial–temporal perspective

Due to its rapid economic gains in recent decades, studies of China’s regional development have recently attracted scholarly attentions. Multi-scalar and multi-mechanism are proposed as crucial approaches in China’s regional studies. More advanced methodological development in GIS and spatial analysis also lends power to in-depth understanding of China’s regional development. This study examines the development mechanisms from a spatial–temporal perspective in Greater Beijing Area (GBA), China. In particular, with panel data of GBA from 1995 to 2001 at county level, the study intends to apply a spatial panel regression analysis to study the well identified regional development mechanisms, namely, institutional factors, globalization and urbanization. Based on the panel data analysis, a tentative geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) is also proposed to explore the potentially varying relationships between economic development and its mechanisms from a space–time standpoint. Results from the analyses are quite interesting. First, when urbanization seems to hinder regional development in GBA with cross-sectional analysis, the spatial panel analysis indicates that urbanization contributes to GBA’s development in the 7 years span. Second, per capita foreign investment, which was usually deemed one of the major factors of globalization and a financial engine for regional development in the reform China, turns out to be a negligible mechanism in GBA’s development. Third, among all the development mechanisms, the government’s financial capability seems to dominate the regional development in GBA. GTWR analysis further revealed potential non-stationary relationships among the modeled variables, indicating that the functions of regional development mechanisms are inherently heterogeneous both spatially and temporally in GBA.     

Spatio‐temporal trend analysis of drought in the GAP Region,Turkey

Natural Hazards - Drought is considered to be one of the most devastating natural disasters. In recent years, determination of historical droughts has gained more importance. This can be attributed...     

A spatial investigation of venture capital investment in the US biotechnology industry, 1995–2008

The objective of this research is to investigate the role of geography in the venture capital investment in the US biotechnology industry. Data include 4,409 quarterly investment deals from the MoneyTree Survey during 1995 and 2008. Strong spatial concentration patterns are identified. Using both ordinary squares regressions and geographically weighted regressions, we find that as the geographic distance between biotechnology firms and their investors decreases, deal size increases. Location in established biotechnology clusters, such as New England and California, helps to bring a larger deal into individual firms as well. Also, the impact of distance decay in these two clusters is more significant than that in other regions. In addition, we find that a global venture capital investing syndication network brings large deals. Furthermore, firms in later stages of development, and/or with few financing rounds, tend to receive more capital per deal.     

A Mid–Late Quaternary loess–paleosol record in Simmons Farm in southern Illinois,USA

In unglaciated areas of the Mississippi Valley region, the typical full loess–paleosol succession contains the Modern Soil developed in Peoria Silt, weakly developed Farmdale Geosol developed in Roxana Silt, Sangamon Geosol developed in Loveland Silt, and Yarmouth Geosol developed in Crowley's Ridge Silt. Although a fifth loess called the Marianna Silt is reported at one area, the paleosol that separates the Crowley Ridge and Marianna Silts is not well defined. Previous thermoluminescence (TL) and optical stimulated luminescence (OSL) age chronology has suggested multiple phases of Sangamon Geosol developed in Loveland Silt, but clear morphological evidence of polygenetic Sangamon Geosol profiles have not been found. Recently, a thick loess–paleosol sequence has been studied in the middle Mississippi Valley in unglaciated southern Illinois, USA. Soil morphology and analytical results revealed five loesses and associated paleosol units. Two Sangamon Bt horizons were found separated by a thick ACtk horizon, interpreted to indicate two phases of Sangamon Geosol development. This well-preserved loess–paleosol succession provides one of the most complete mid–late Quaternary loess records in the middle Mississippi Valley to date, and is important for studying the stratigraphic framework and paleoclimate and environment changes.     

Characteristics analysis of spatial and temporal variation on extreme weather events in Anhui Province for recent 50 years

To mitigate the impact of natural or man-made hazards on the services of an infrastructure facility, it is important to quantitatively assess its available capacity. For example, in a post-disaster scenario, critical infrastructure is likely to experience (i) excessive demand for the service of an infrastructure and/or (ii) compromised capacity because of damage to the infrastructure and the failure of infrastructure interdependencies. As the demand grows and nears the capacity limit of an infrastructure facility, a shortage of services required for the community’s recovery will occur. The development of mitigation strategies and an assessment of their effectiveness require a systematic approach. In this paper, a functional stress–strain principle for infrastructure facilities is proposed to quantitatively assess their serviceability in post-disaster scenarios. Functional stress in infrastructure management represents a service-related demand on an infrastructure facility, while strain indicates its coping capacity. The dynamic nature of infrastructure services will be considered depending on the relationship between demand and available capacity. The allowable range of functional stress is then defined, considering plastic and elastic patterns of responses of a facility during recovery to explore strain capacity variations. The proposed principle facilitates a systematic understanding of how infrastructure facilities can adapt themselves to growing stress and the maximum level of stress they can handle. The application of the proposed functional stress–strain principle is demonstrated through case studies of two infrastructure facilities in a post-earthquake scenario: a medical facility and a power facility.     

Rank-size distribution and primate city characteristics in India — A temporal analysis

This paper is an analysis of the historical change in city size distribution in India from the perspectives provided by Zipf and Jefferson. Rank-size distribution at national level and primate city-size distribution at regional levels are examined. India's national urban system is gradually evolving towards Zipf's rank-size distribution. But primate cities have persisted in three of the four macro-regions in India. The paper also examines, in the Indian context, the relation between rank-size distribution and an integrated urban system, and the normative nature of the latter as a spatial organization of human society. Finally, we have made a modest attempt to locate the research on city-size distribution, especially Berry's system-theoretic interpretation of rank-size distribution, on the realm of the political economy of urbanization.     

A Before–After–Control–Impact Analysis of the Effects of a Mississippi River Freshwater Diversion on Estuarine Nekton in Louisiana, USA

Since 1991, the Caernarvon Freshwater Diversion has been reintroducing Mississippi River water into a previously hydrologically isolated estuary in an effort to restore wetlands. To determine the effect of freshwater inflow on estuarine nekton community structure, a Before?CAfter?CControl?CImpact study design was applied. As a result of the opening, salinities in the impact area decreased, and the nekton community structure in the estuary changed significantly. Species of economical or ecological importance either increased in biomass or exhibited no response to the opening of the diversion. Higher abundances of small fish were observed in the area receiving freshwater flow, which is an indication that the area serves as a refuge from large marine predators. Because a salinity gradient was established, as opposed to a uniform but lower salinity regime, aquatic habitat was available to nekton species from a wide spectrum of salinity tolerances.     

Who are the resident stakeholders in a flood project? A spatial analysis of resident stakeholders

The importance of public participation has been discussed and well understood for some time, and many people have moved beyond the development of ideas to putting them into practice. During the past few years, stakeholder theory, one of the most popular theories originating from the field of business management, has been attracting immense attention due to its utility in raising representativeness in government. For instance, Hemmati (Multi-stakeholder process for governance and sustainability: beyond deadlock and conflict. Earthscan, London, 2002) argued that multi-stakeholder processes (MSPs) might be effective methods toward generating better policy options under the current democratic paradigm. In real life, however, stakeholder theory often has not been appropriately adopted in the field of environmental management. Sometimes, planners, prompted by the difficulty of identifying stakes, have used the term “stakeholders” as roughly synonymous with “participants”, thus impairing the content of stakeholder theory. Different from previous work in the field of flood management, we propose an original approach, the spatial analysis of a flood project for resident stakeholders (SAFPRS), to identify resident stakeholders in a flood project, rather than merely improving the weakness of stakeholder identification. Hopefully, this approach might ameliorate the current situation in Taiwan, where some important stakeholders have been too easily excluded in the execution of flood projects.     

Spatial–temporal characteristics of surface water quality in the Taihu Basin,China

Taihu Basin is one of the most developed and industrialized regions in China. In the last two decades, rapid development of economy as well as an increase in population has resulted in an increase of pollutants produced and discharged into rivers and lakes. Much more attention has been paid on the serious water pollution problems due to high frequency of algal blooming. The dataset, obtained during the period 2001–2002 from the Water Resources Protection Bureau of the Taihu Basin, consisted of eight physicochemical variables surveyed monthly at 22 sampling sites in the Taihu Basin, China. Principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) were used to identify the characteristics of the surface water quality in the studied area. The temporal and spatial variations of water quality were also evaluated by using the fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE) method. PCA extracted the first two principal components (PCs), explaining 86.18% of the total variance of the raw data. Especially, PC1 (73.72%) had strong positive correlation with DO, and was negatively associated with COD_Mn, COD, BOD, NH₄ ⁺–N, TP and TN. PC2 (12.46%) was characterized by pH. CA showed that most sites were highly polluted by industrial and domestic wastewater which contributed significantly to PC1. The sites located in the west of Lake Taihu were influenced by farmland runoff which may contribute to nitrogen pollution of Lake Taihu, whereas the monitoring sites in the eastern of Lake Taihu demonstrated that urban residential subsistence and domestic wastewater are the major contaminants. FSE indicates that there is no obvious variance between 2001 and 2002 among most sites. Only several sites free from point-source pollution appear to exhibit good water quality through the studied period.     

Assessment of regional change in nitrate concentrations in groundwater in the Central Valley, California, USA, 1950s–2000s

A regional assessment of multi-decadal changes in nitrate concentrations was done using historical data and a spatially stratified non-biased approach. Data were stratified into physiographic subregions on the basis of geomorphology and soils data to represent zones of historical recharge and discharge patterns in the basin. Data were also stratified by depth to represent a shallow zone generally representing domestic drinking-water supplies and a deep zone generally representing public drinking-water supplies. These stratifications were designed to characterize the regional extent of groundwater with common redox and age characteristics, two factors expected to influence changes in nitrate concentrations over time. Overall, increasing trends in nitrate concentrations and the proportion of nitrate concentrations above 5 mg/L were observed in the east fans subregion of the Central Valley. Whereas the west fans subregion has elevated nitrate concentrations, temporal trends were not detected, likely due to the heterogeneous nature of the water quality in this area and geologic sources of nitrate, combined with sparse and uneven data coverage. Generally low nitrate concentrations in the basin subregion are consistent with reduced geochemical conditions resulting from low permeability soils and higher organic content, reflecting the distal portions of alluvial fans and historical groundwater discharge areas. Very small increases in the shallow aquifer in the basin subregion may reflect downgradient movement of high nitrate groundwater from adjacent areas or overlying intensive agricultural inputs. Because of the general lack of regionally extensive long-term monitoring networks, the results from this study highlight the importance of placing studies of trends in water quality into regional context. Earlier work concluded that nitrate concentrations were steadily increasing over time in the eastern San Joaquin Valley, but clearly those trends do not apply to other physiographic subregions within the Central Valley, even where land use and climate are similar.     

Combining forms of heavy metal elements in Dianshan Lake sediments and their spatial and temporal variations

Dianshan Lake is one of the important water supply sources for Shanghai City. The contents of heavy metals in the sediments are obviously higher than those in the overlying water body. The contents of Pb in the sediments vary seasonally; with increasing depth, the contents of Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr and Fe show no variation generally, but Mn varies in the peak pattern. Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr and Fe in the sediments are present predominantly in sludge phase, but iron and manganese oxide form of Pb and organic matter-sulfide form of Cu are their respective preferential combining forms. Manganese is present largely in exchangeable form, iron-manganese oxide combined form and sludge form. The contents of the various forms of Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr and Fe tend to vary with changing season and depth. The contents of exchangeable forms of Fe and Mn vary with depth in the peak-like pattern.     

Numerical analysis of seepage–deformation in unsaturated soils

A coupled elastic–plastic finite element analysis based on simplified consolidation theory for unsaturated soils is used to investigate the coupling processes of water infiltration and deformation. By introducing a reduced suction and an elastic–plastic constitutive equation for the soil skeleton, the simplified consolidation theory for unsaturated soils is incorporated into an in-house finite element code. Using the proposed numerical method, the generation of pore water pressure and development of deformation can be simulated under evaporation or rainfall infiltration conditions. Through a parametric study and comparison with the test results, the proposed method is found to describe well the characteristics during water evaporation/infiltration into unsaturated soils. Finally, an unsaturated soil slope with water infiltration is analyzed in detail to investigate the development of the displacement and generation of pore water pressure.     

Triassic volcanism along the eastern margin of the Xing'an Massif,NE China: Constraints on the spatial–temporal extent of the Mongol–Okhotsk tectonic regime

We present new zircon U–Pb–Hf and whole-rock geochemical data for volcanic rocks along the eastern margin of the Xing'an Massif of NE China in order to further our understanding of the history of subduction towards the SE and the spatial extent of the Mongol–Okhotsk tectonic regime. Zircon U–Pb dating indicates that the Triassic volcanism in the Xing'an Massif occurred in two stages during the Middle (ca. 242 Ma) and Late (ca. 223–228 Ma) Triassic. Middle Triassic basaltic andesites in the Heihe area have an affinity to arc-type volcanic rocks. The zircon ε_Hf(t) values (+ 8.5 to + 12.7) suggest that the primary magma was generated by the partial melting of a relatively depleted mantle wedge that had been metasomatized by subduction-related fluids. The Late Triassic andesites in the Handaqi area exhibit geochemical affinities to high-Mg adakitic andesites. Their zircon ε_Hf(t) values (+ 11.5 to + 14.5) and T_DM2 ages (313–484 Ma) indicate that their primary magma was derived from the partial melting of a young subducted oceanic crust, followed by interaction with melts derived from mantle peridotite. The Late Triassic basaltic andesites, andesites, and dacites in the Zhalantun–Moguqi area have features similar to those of igneous rocks formed in subduction zones. Their zircon ε_Hf(t) values (+ 8.4 to + 15.4) and T_DM1 ages (260–542 Ma) indicate that their primary magma was derived from the partial melting of a depleted mantle wedge that had been metasomatized by subduction-related fluids. These data suggest that the Triassic volcanic rocks of the Xing'an Massif formed in an active continental margin setting associated with the southward subduction of the Mongol–Okhotsk oceanic plate towards the SE. We conclude that the Mongol–Okhotsk tectonic regime extended at least as far as the eastern margin of the Xing'an Massif, and that the tectonism spanned the period from the late Permian to early Early-Cretaceous.