Quantifying threats to groundwater resources in the Republic of Maldives Part I: Future rainfall patterns and sea‐level rise

Reserves of fresh groundwater on atoll islands are extremely fragile due to climatic and anthropogenic stresses. Of major concern is the quantity of water to be available in the coming decades under the influence of variable rainfall patterns, rising sea level, environmental conditions, and expected population growth that depends on groundwater resources. In this study, a 3‐dimensional numerical modelling approach using the SEAWAT modelling code is used to estimate freshwater lens volume fluctuation for 4 representative islands in the Republic of Maldives in response to long‐term changes in rainfall, sea‐level rise (SLR), and anthropogenic stresses such as groundwater pumping and short‐term impacts from tsunami‐induced marine overwash events. This work is divided into 2 papers. This first paper presents numerical model set‐up and calibration, and the effect of future rainfall patterns and SLR on fresh groundwater reserves. The second paper focuses on marine overwash events. The results of simulated future freshwater lens volume presented in the first study contribute to efficient groundwater resources planning and management for the Maldives in the upcoming decades. Freshwater lenses in small atoll islands (area < 0.6 km²) are shown to have a strong variability trends in the upcoming decades with expected reduction in lens volume between 11% and 36% due to SLR. In contrast, freshwater lenses in larger atoll islands (area > 1.0 km²) are shown to have less variability to changing patterns with expected reduction in lens volume between 8% and 26% due to SLR. Study results can provide water resource managers with valuable findings for consideration in water security measures.     

Future evolution of a tidal inlet due to changes in wave climate, Sea level and lagoon morphology (Óbidos lagoon, Portugal)

Tidal inlets are extremely dynamic, as a result of an often delicate balance between the effects of tides, waves and other forcings. Since the morphology of these inlets can affect navigation, water quality and ecosystem dynamics, there is a clear need to anticipate their evolution in order to promote adequate management decisions. Over decadal time scales, the position and size of tidal inlets are expected to evolve with the conditions that affect them, for instance as a result of climate change. A process-based morphodynamic modeling system is validated and used to analyze the effects of sea level rise, an expected shift in the wave direction and the reduction of the upper lagoon surface area by sedimentation on a small tidal inlet (Óbidos lagoon, Portugal). A new approach to define yearly wave regimes is first developed, which includes a seasonal behavior, random inter-annual variability and the possibility to extrapolate trends. Once validated, this approach is used to produce yearly time series of wave spectra for the present and for the end of the 21st century, considering the local rotation trends computed using hindcast results for the past 57 years. Predictions of the mean sea level for 2100 are based on previous studies, while the bathymetry of the upper lagoon for the same year is obtained by extrapolation of past trends. Results show, and data confirm, that the Óbidos lagoon inlet has three stable configurations, largely determined by the inter-annual variations in the wave characteristics. Both sea level rise and the reduction of the lagoon surface area will promote the accretion of the inlet. In contrast, the predicted rotation of the wave regime, within foreseeable limits, will have a negligible impact on the inlet morphology.     

Towards an improved understanding of erosion rates and tidal notch development on limestone coasts in the Tropics: 10 years of micro‐erosion meter measurements,Phang Nga Bay,Thailand

Knowledge and understanding of shore platform erosion and tidal notch development in the tropics and subtropics relies mainly on short‐term studies conducted on recently deposited carbonate rocks, predominantly Holocene and Quaternary reef limestones and aeolianites. This paper presents erosion rates, measured over a 10 year period on notches and platforms developed on the Permian, Ratburi limestone at Phang Nga Bay, Thailand. In so doing it contributes to informing a particular knowledge gap in our understanding of the erosion dynamics of shore platform and tidal notch development in the tropics and subtropics – notch erosion rates on relatively hard, ancient limestones measured directly on the rock surface using a micro‐erosion meter (MEM) over time periods of a decade or more. The average intertidal erosion rate of 0.231 mm/yr is lower than erosion rates measured over 2–3 years on recent, weaker carbonate rocks. Average erosion rates at Phang Nga vary according to location and site and are, in rank order from highest to lowest: Mid‐platform (0.324 mm/yr) > Notch floor (0.289 mm/yr) > Rear notch wall (0.228 mm/yr) > Lower platform (0.140 mm/yr) > Notch roof (0.107 mm/yr) and Supratidal (0.095 mm/yr). The micro‐relief of the eroding rock surfaces in each of these positions exhibits marked differences that are seemingly associated with differences in dominant physical and bio‐erosion processes. The results begin to help inform knowledge of longer term shore platform erosion dynamics, models of marine notch development and have implications for the use of marine notches as indicators of changes in sea level and the duration of past sea levels. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.