Seismic damage accumulation in multiple mainshock–aftershock sequences

Earthquakes are generally clustered, both in time and space. Conventionally, each cluster is made of foreshocks, the mainshock, and aftershocks. Seismic damage can possibly accumulate because of the effects of multiple earthquakes in one cluster and/or because the structure is unrepaired between different clusters. Typically, the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework neglects seismic damage accumulation. This is because (i) probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) only refers to mainshocks and (ii) classical fragility curves represent the failure probability in one event, of given intensity, only. However, for life cycle assessment, it can be necessary to account for the build-up of seismic losses because of damage in multiple events. It has been already demonstrated that a Markovian model (i.e., a Markov chain), accounting for damage accumulation in multiple mainshocks, can be calibrated by maintaining PSHA from the classical PBEE framework and replacing structural fragility with a set of state-dependent fragility curves. In fact, the Markov chain also works when damage accumulates in multiple aftershocks from a single mainshock of known magnitude and location, if aftershock PSHA replaces classical PSHA. Herein, this model is extended further, developing a Markovian model that accounts, at the same time, for damage accumulation: (i) within any mainshock–aftershock seismic sequence and (ii) among multiple sequences. The model is illustrated through applications to a series of six-story reinforced concrete moment-resisting frame buildings designed for three sites with different seismic hazard levels in Italy. The time-variant reliability assessment results are compared with the classical PBEE approach and the accumulation model that only considers mainshocks, so as to address the relevance of aftershocks for life cycle assessment.     

Spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of M9.0 megathrust earthquake sequences of wood‐frame houses in Victoria,British Columbia,Canada

Megathrust earthquake sequences, comprising mainshocks and triggered aftershocks along the subduction interface and in the overriding crust, can impact multiple buildings and infrastructure in a city. The time between the mainshocks and aftershocks usually is too short to retrofit the structures; therefore, moderate‐size aftershocks can cause additional damage. To have a better understanding of the impact of aftershocks on city‐wide seismic risk assessment, a new simulation framework of spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of future M9.0 sequences in the Cascadia subduction zone is developed. The simulation framework consists of an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, ground‐motion model, and state‐dependent seismic fragility model. The spatiotemporal ETAS model is modified to characterise aftershocks of large and anisotropic M9.0 mainshock ruptures. To account for damage accumulation of wood‐frame houses due to aftershocks in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, state‐dependent fragility curves are implemented. The new simulation framework can be used for quasi‐real‐time aftershock hazard and risk assessments and city‐wide post‐event risk management.     

Empirical seismic vulnerability assessment of Icelandic buildings affected by the 2000 sequence of earthquakes

In June 2000, two Mw6.5 earthquakes occurred within a 4-day interval in the largest agricultural region of Iceland causing substantial damage and no loss of life. The distance between the earthquake epicentres and the fault rupture was approximately 15 km. Nearly 5000 low-rise residential buildings were affected, some of which were located between the faults and exposed to strong ground motion from both events. The post-earthquakes damage and repair costs for every residential building in the epicentral region were assessed for insurance purposes. The database is detailed and complete for the whole region and represents one of the best quality post-earthquake vulnerability datasets used for seismic loss estimation. Nonetheless, the construction of vulnerability curves from this database is hampered by the fact that the loss values represent the cumulative damage from two sequential earthquakes in some areas, and single earthquakes in others. A novel methodology based on beta regression is proposed here in order to define the geographical limits on areas where buildings sustained cumulative damage and predict the seismic losses for future sequence of events in each area. The results show that the average building loss in areas affected by a single event is below 10% of the building replacement value, whilst this increases to an average of 25% in areas affected by the two earthquakes. The proposed methodology can be used to empirically assess the vulnerability in other areas which experienced sequence of events such as Emilia-Romagna (Italy) in 2012.     

Seismic assessment of damaged piloti‐type RC building subjected to successive earthquakes

Building structures damaged by a seismic event may be exposed to the risk of aftershocks or another event within a certain period. In this paper, the seismic assessment of damaged piloti‐type RC buildings was carried out to evaluate probabilistic retrofitting effects under successive earthquakes. First, a framework to evaluate the effectiveness of retrofitting was proposed, and then the proposed methodology was demonstrated with a structure retrofitted with buckling‐restrained braces (BRBs). For consideration of realistic successive earthquakes, past records measured at the same station were combined. Within the framework, a series of nonlinear time history analyses were performed for an as‐is model subjected to single earthquake, a damaged model subjected to successive earthquakes, and a damaged model retrofitted with BRBs subjected to successive earthquakes. In addition, fragility analysis was systematically applied in the framework for evaluation of effectiveness of the retrofitting strategy. The proposed framework was capable of quantifying the influence of successive earthquakes and evaluating the effectiveness of BRB retrofitting by considering the severity of the first earthquake damage and the hysteresis behavior of the retrofit element. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Building service life economic loss assessment under sequential seismic events

Aftershocks have been shown to exacerbate earthquake‐induced financial losses by causing further damage to structural and nonstructural components in buildings that have already been affected by a mainshock event and increasing the duration of disrupted functionality. Whereas seismic loss assessment under isolated events has been addressed thoroughly in previous studies, comparatively less has been accomplished in the area of loss assessment under sequences of mainshock‐aftershock ground motions. The main objective of the current study is to formulate a comprehensive framework for quantifying financial losses under sequential seismic events. The proposed framework is capable of accounting for the uncertainties in the state of structure due to accumulation of earthquake‐induced damage, the time‐dependent nature of seismic hazard in the post‐mainshock environment, and the uncertainties in the occurrence of mainshock and aftershock events. Application of the proposed framework to a 4‐story reinforced concrete moment frame shows that consideration of aftershocks could increase lifecycle earthquake‐induced losses by up to 30% compared with mainshock‐only assessments.     

Incremental dynamic analysis of woodframe buildings

The collapse of wood buildings was one of the main contributors to the heavy death toll and economic losses during the 1995 Hyogo‐ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake in Japan. In California, half of the property loss from the 1994 Northridge earthquake was attributed to wood construction. Based on damage observed in recent earthquakes, the seismic vulnerability of existing wood buildings under maximum credible seismic events is uncertain. The main objective of this study is to quantify the seismic collapse fragilities and collapse mechanisms of a two‐story townhouse and three‐story woodframe apartment building through numerical analyses. Three construction quality variants (poor, typical and superior) were considered for each building in order to assess the effects of construction qualities on seismic collapse fragilities. The buildings were also re‐designed according to the 2006 edition of the International Building Code to quantify the seismic fragilities of modern woodframe construction. The results obtained suggest that the construction quality, excitation direction and wall finish materials can influence significantly the collapse fragilities of woodframe buildings. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic fragility reduction of an unreinforced masonry school building through retrofit using ferrocement overlay

The Himalayan region is one of the major seismic areas in the world. However, similar to many other seismically active locations, there are substantial numbers of unreinforced masonry(URM) buildings; the majority of which have not been designed for seismic loads. Past seismic events have shown that such buildings are highly vulnerable to earthquakes. Retrofitting of these URM buildings is an important concern in earthquake mitigation programs. Most government school buildings in rural areas of northern India are constructed of unreinforced masonry. These school buildings are socially important structures and serve as a crucial resource for rehabilitation during any disaster. The effectiveness of ferrocement(FC) to create a URM-FC composite is described in this study by estimating the performance and fragility of a URM school building before and after a retrofit. Analytical models, based on the equivalent frame method, are developed and used for nonlinear static analysis to estimate the enhancement in capacity. The capacity enhancement due to retrofitting is presented in terms of the maximum PGA sustained and damage probabilities at the expected level of earthquake hazard.     

Empirical seismic fragility for the precast RC industrial buildings damaged by the 2012 Emilia (Italy) earthquakes

The paper analyses the seismic fragility of precast reinforced concrete buildings using observational damage data gathered after the 2012 Emilia earthquakes that struck Northern Italy. The damage level in 1890 buildings was collected, classified and examined. Damage matrices were then evaluated, and finally, empirical fragility curves were fitted using Bayesian regression. Building damage was classified using a six‐level scale derived from EMS‐98. The completeness of the database and the spatial distribution of the buildings investigated were analysed using cadastral data as a reference. The intensity of the ground motion was quantified by the maximum horizontal peak ground acceleration, which was obtained from ShakeMaps. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of seismic fragility curves for low-rise masonry infilled reinforced concrete buildings by a coefficient-based method

This study presents a seismic fragility analysis and ultimate spectral displacement assessment of regular low-rise masonry infilled (MI) reinforced concrete (RC) buildings using a coefficient-based method. The coefficient-based method does not require a complicated finite element analysis; instead, it is a simplified procedure for assessing the spectral acceleration and displacement of buildings subjected to earthquakes. A regression analysis was first performed to obtain the best-fitting equations for the inter-story drift ratio (IDR) and period shift factor of low-rise MI RC buildings in response to the peak ground acceleration of earthquakes using published results obtained from shaking table tests. Both spectral acceleration-and spectral displacement-based fragility curves under various damage states (in terms of IDR) were then constructed using the coefficient-based method. Finally, the spectral displacements of low-rise MI RC buildings at the ultimate (or near-collapse) state obtained from this paper and the literature were compared. The simulation results indicate that the fragility curves obtained from this study and other previous work correspond well. Furthermore, most of the spectral displacements of low-rise MI RC buildings at the ultimate state from the literature fall within the bounded spectral displacements predicted by the coefficient-based method.     

损失分布和非结构损失对房屋建筑地易损性的影响

房屋建筑的地震易损性是地震损失评估和地震巨灾风险模型的基础。作为房屋建筑的重要组成部分,各类非结构构件的损失在现有的易损性模型中并未得到足够重视。本文以一栋典型钢筋混凝土框架结构教学楼为对象,通过将房屋建筑中的各类构件划分为具有不同地震损伤特性和损失后果的易损性组,考察建筑内的损失分布和非结构损失对房屋建筑地震易损性的影响。分析结果表明:由于许多非结构构件在中小地震作用下即可能发生较严重的破坏,房屋建筑在中小地震下的易损性主要受非结构损失控制;随着地震动强度等级的不断提高,结构损伤渐趋严重,结构损失对整体建筑易损性的影响不断增大;在结构进入震后不可修状态之前,建筑不同楼层的损失分布是评估建筑地震损失时不可忽略的因素。     

Combining USGS ShakeMaps and the OpenQuake-engine for damage and loss assessment

The evaluation of the potential impact of strong seismic events shortly after their occurrence is a critical step to organise emergency response and consequently minimise the adverse effects of earthquakes. The estimation of the impact from earthquakes considering the observed ground shaking from past events can be useful for the calibration of existing exposure and/or fragility and vulnerability models. This study describes a methodology to combine the publicly available information from the USGS ShakeMap system and the open-source software OpenQuake engine for the assessment of damage and losses. This approach is employed to estimate the number of structural collapses considering the 2012 Magnitude 5.9 Emilia-Romagna (Italy) earthquake and the aggregated economic loss because of the 2010 Magnitude 7.1 Darfield (New Zealand) event. Several techniques to calculate the ground shaking in the affected region considering the spatial and interperiod correlations in the intra-event ground motion residuals are investigated and their influence in the resulting damage or loss estimates are evaluated.     

Performance-based seismic design of nonstructural building components:The next frontier of earthquake engineering

With the development and implementation of performance-based earthquake engineering,harmonization of performance levels between structural and nonstructural components becomes vital. Even if the structural components of a building achieve a continuous or immediate occupancy performance level after a seismic event,failure of architectural,mechanical or electrical components can lower the performance level of the entire building system. This reduction in performance caused by the vulnerability of nonstructural components has been observed during recent earthquakes worldwide. Moreover,nonstructural damage has limited the functionality of critical facilities,such as hospitals,following major seismic events. The investment in nonstructural components and building contents is far greater than that of structural components and framing. Therefore,it is not surprising that in many past earthquakes,losses from damage to nonstructural components have exceeded losses from structural damage. Furthermore,the failure of nonstructural components can become a safety hazard or can hamper the safe movement of occupants evacuating buildings,or of rescue workers entering buildings. In comparison to structural components and systems,there is relatively limited information on the seismic design of nonstructural components. Basic research work in this area has been sparse,and the available codes and guidelines are usually,for the most part,based on past experiences,engineering judgment and intuition,rather than on objective experimental and analytical results. Often,design engineers are forced to start almost from square one after each earthquake event: to observe what went wrong and to try to prevent repetitions. This is a consequence of the empirical nature of current seismic regulations and guidelines for nonstructural components. This review paper summarizes current knowledge on the seismic design and analysis of nonstructural building components,identifying major knowledge gaps that will need to be filled by future research. Furthermore,considering recent trends in earthquake engineering,the paper explores how performance-based seismic design might be conceived for nonstructural components,drawing on recent developments made in the field of seismic design and hinting at the specific considerations required for nonstructural components.     

Performance-based seismic design of nonstructural building components: The next frontier of earthquake engineering

With the development and implementation of performance-based earthquake engineering, harmonization of performance levels between structural and nonstructural components becomes vital. Even if the structural components of a building achieve a continuous or immediate occupancy performance level after a seismic event, failure of architectural, mechanical or electrical components can lower the performance level of the entire building system. This reduction in performance caused by the vulnerability of nonstructural components has been observed during recent earthquakes worldwide. Moreover, nonstructural damage has limited the functionality of critical facilities, such as hospitals, following major seismic events. The investment in nonstructural components and building contents is far greater than that of structural components and framing. Therefore, it is not surprising that in many past earthquakes, losses from damage to nonstructural components have exceeded losses from structural damage. Furthermore, the failure of nonstructural components can become a safety hazard or can hamper the safe movement of occupants evacuating buildings, or of rescue workers entering buildings. In comparison to structural components and systems, there is relatively limited information on the seismic design of nonstructural components. Basic research work in this area has been sparse, and the available codes and guidelines are usually, for the most part, based on past experiences, engineering judgment and intuition, rather than on objective experimental and analytical results. Often, design engineers are forced to start almost from square one after each earthquake event: to observe what went wrong and to try to prevent repetitions. This is a consequence of the empirical nature of current seismic regulations and guidelines for nonstructural components. This review paper summarizes current knowledge on the seismic design and analysis of nonstructural building components, identifying major knowledge gaps that will need to be filled by future research. Furthermore, considering recent trends in earthquake engineering, the paper explores how performance-based seismic design might be conceived for nonstructural components, drawing on recent developments made in the field of seismic design and hinting at the specific considerations required for nonstructural components.     

Observational fragility functions for residential stone masonry buildings in Nepal

This paper outlines the seismic vulnerability of rural stone masonry buildings affected by the 2015 Gorkha earthquake sequence. Summary of field observation is presented first and empirical fragility curves are developed from the detailed damage assessment data from 603 villages in central, eastern and western Nepal. Fragility curves are developed on the basis of 665,515 building damage cases collected during the post-earthquake detailed damage assessment campaign conducted by Government of Nepal. Two sets of fragility functions are derived using peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 0.3 s as the intensity measures. The sum of the results highlights that stone masonry buildings in Nepal are highly vulnerable even in the case of low to moderate ground shaking. The results further indicate that in the case of strong to major earthquakes, most of the stone masonry buildings in Nepal would sustain severe damage or collapse.     

Site effect on vulnerability of high-rise shear wall buildings under near and far field earthquakes

Worldwide experience repeatedly shows that damages in structures caused by earthquakes are highly dependent on site condition and epicentral distance. In this paper, a 21-storey shear wall-structure built in the 1960s in Hong Kong is selected as an example to investigate these two effects. Under various design earthquake intensities and for various site conditions, the fragility curves or damage probability matrix of such building is quantified in terms of the ductility factor, which is estimated from the ratio of storey yield shear to the inter-storey seismic shear. For high-rise buildings, a higher probability of damage is obtained for a softer site condition, and damage is more severe for far field earthquakes than for near field earthquakes. For earthquake intensity of VIII, the probability of complete collapse (P) increases from 1 to 24% for near field earthquakes and from 1 to 41% for far field earthquakes if the building is moved form a rock site to a site consisting a 80 m thick soft clay. For intensity IX, P increases from 6 to 69% for near field earthquake and from 14 to 79% for far field earthquake if the building is again moved form rock site to soft soil site. Therefore, site effect is very important and not to be neglected. Similar site and epicentral effects should also be expected for other types of high-rise structures.     

Seismic Hazard Matrix of Buildings in Yunnan

Seismologists have begun to investigate the earthquake damage and assess the economic losses on the spot in the Yunnan area since the earthquakes with Ms6.7 and Ms6.9 that occurred on the boundary between China and Myanmar west of Menglian county, Yunnan Province, on April 23, 1992. From 1992 to 2003, 50 destructive earthquakes occurred in Yunnan, and large amounts of data on seismic hazard have been accumulated. With focus on the major building structures, the paper makes statistical analysis on the earthquake damage ratio, loss ratio and seismic hazard index in the areas with different seismic intensity of the 50 events, and presents the seismic hazard matrix of buildings for the Yunnan area.     

结合天然地震推导水库地震的建筑物易损性

通过类比的方法,选择有现场调查资料并有建筑物破坏比结果的天然地震,基于地震中建筑物震害表现的一致性,以震级、震源深度和极震区烈度为标准,聚类得到与水库地震震害相似的天然地震震例。考虑到宏观经济水平与地震经济损失已有的统计模型,采用了人口密度、人均GDP和三产比例等3个宏观经济指标来反映不同地区的建筑物总体抗震水平,以加权海明(Hamming)距离来定义已知矩阵与目标矩阵的近似度,最终的加权结果即为待求地区的易损性矩阵。通过实际检验,所得的建筑物易损性关系能够反映水库地震的破坏特点,较中强天然地震的易损性要高。这种工作思路也可以用于水库地震其它方面的研究中     

Response-based damage assessment of structures

The structure's ability to survive an earthquake may be measured in terms of the expected state of damage of the structure after the earthquake. Damage may be quantified by using any of several damage indices defined as functions whose values can be related to particular structural damage states. A number of available response-based damage indices are discussed and critically evaluated for their applicability in seismic damage evaluation. A new rational approach for damage assessment is presented which provides a measure of the physical response characteristics of the structure and is better suited for non-linear structural analysis. A practical method based on the static pushover analysis is proposed to estimate the expected damage to structures when subjected to earthquakes of different intensities. Results of the analysis of ductile and non-ductile reinforced concrete buildings show that the proposed procedure for damage assessment gives a simple, consistent and rational damage indicator for structures. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Building vulnerability and seismic risk analysis in the urban area of Mt. Etna volcano (Italy)

The tectonic system of the eastern flank of Mt. Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy) is the source of most of the strongest earthquakes occurring in the area over the last 205 years. A total of 12 events with epicentre intensities ≥VIII EMS have occurred at Mt. Etna, 10 of which were located on the eastern flank. This indicates a mean recurrence time of about 20 years. This area is highly urbanised, with many villages around the volcano at altitudes up to 700 m a.s.l. The southern and eastern flanks are particularly highly populated areas, with numerous villages very close to each other. The probabilistic seismic hazard due to local faults for Mt. Etna was calculated by adopting a site approach to seismic hazard assessment. Only the site histories of local volcano-tectonic earthquakes were considered, leaving out the effects due to strong regional earthquakes that occurred in north-eastern and south-eastern Sicily. The inventory used in this application refers to residential buildings. These data were extracted from the 1991 census of the Italian National Institute of Statistics, and are grouped according to the census sections. The seismic vulnerability of the elements at risk belonging to a given building typology is described by a vulnerability index, in accordance with a damage model based on macroseismic intensities. For the estimation of economic losses due to physical damage to buildings, an integrated impact indicator was used, which is equivalent to the lost building volume. The expected annualised economic earthquake losses were evaluated both in absolute and in relative terms, and were compared with the geographical distribution of seismic hazard and with similar evaluations of losses for other regions.