Rock damage and regolith transport by frost: an example of climate modulation of the geomorphology of the critical zone

In this article we craft process‐specific algorithms that capture climate control of hillslope evolution in order to elucidate the legacy of past climate on present critical zone architecture and topography. Models of hillslope evolution traditionally comprise rock detachment into the mobile layer, mobile regolith transport, and a channel incision or aggradation boundary condition. We extend this system into the deep critical zone by considering a weathering damage zone below the mobile regolith in which rock strength is diminished; the degree of damage conditions the rate of mobile regolith production. We first discuss generic damage profiles in which appropriate length and damage scales govern profile shapes, and examine their dependence upon exhumation rate. We then introduce climate control through the example of rock damage by frost‐generated crack growth. We augment existing frost cracking models by incorporating damage rate limitations for long transport distances for water to the freezing front. Finally we link the frost cracking damage model, a mobile regolith production rule in which rock entrainment is conditioned by the damage state of the rock, and a frost creep transport model, to examine the evolution of an interfluve under oscillating climate. Aspect‐related differences in mean annual surface temperatures result in differences in bedrock damage rate and mobile regolith transport efficiency, which in turn lead to asymmetries in critical zone architecture and hillslope form (divide migration). In a quasi‐steady state hillslope, the lowering rate is uniform, and the damage profile is better developed on north‐facing slopes where the frost damage process is most intense. Because the residence times of mobile regolith and weathered bedrock in such landscapes are on the order of 10 to 100 ka, climate cycles over similar timescales result in modulation of transport and damage efficiencies. These lead to temporal variation in mobile regolith thickness, and to corresponding changes in sediment delivery to bounding streams. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Linking landslides,hillslope erosion,and landscape evolution

This Virtual Issue highlights 10 recent innovative, unconventional, or otherwise significant contributions to Earth Surface Processes and Landforms that help advance the state‐of‐the‐art in research on linkages between landslides, hillslope erosion, and landscape evolution. The selected studies address this feedback within a temporal spectrum that ranges from the event to the millennial scale, thus underscoring the importance of detailed field observations, high‐resolution digital topographic data, and geochronological methods for increasing our capability of quantifying landslide processes and hillslope erosion. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological response to future land-use change and climate change in a tropical catchment

Hydrological response to expected future changes in land use and climate in the Samin catchment (278 km²) in Java, Indonesia, was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. We analysed changes between the baseline period 1983–2005 and the future period 2030–2050 under both land-use change and climate change. We used the outputs of a bias-corrected regional climate model and six global climate models to include climate model uncertainty. The results show that land-use change and climate change individually will cause changes in the water balance components, but that more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, in particular for changes in annual streamflow and surface runoff. The findings of this study will be useful for water resource managers to mitigate future risks associated with land-use and climate changes in the study catchment.     

Growing new generations of critical zone scientists

Critical zone (CZ) science is entering its second decade. A new generation of scientists is emerging trained specifically in CZ science and are contributing to advances in environmental science across disciplines. Concurrently, the global scope of CZ science is being elevated as new countries invest in CZ observatories. Global CZ science has great potential to address a diverse array of questions beyond any single discipline. In this commentary we discuss a series of CZ science grand challenges that should be targeted by early‐career researchers: understanding water availability in the CZ; expanding CZ science into new environments; communicating the societal relevance of CZ science including earthcasting to the public; seamlessly integrating biological sciences within the CZ framework; and scaling CZ processes over large spatial and temporal gradients. Targeting these grand challenges will push CZ science well into the future. We also highlight mechanisms for increased leadership within the CZ community. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Soil production and hillslope transport in mid‐latitudes during the last glacial–interglacial cycle: a combined data and modelling approach in northern Ardennes

The relative efficiency of various hillslope processes through Quaternary glacial–interglacial cycles in the mid‐latitudes is not yet well constrained. Based on a unique set of topographic and soil thickness data in the Ardennes (Belgium), we combine the new CLICHE model of climate‐dependent hillslope evolution with an inversion algorithm in order to get deeper insight into the ways and timing of hillslope dynamics under one such climatic cycle. We simulate the evolution of a synthetic hill reproducing the slope, curvature, and contributing area distributions of the hillslopes of a ~ 2500 km² real area under a simple two‐stage 120‐kyr‐long climatic scenario with linear transitions between cold and warm stages. The inversion method samples a misfit function in the model parameter space, based on estimates of the fit of topographic derivative distributions in classes of soil thickness and of the relative frequencies of the predicted soil thickness classes. Though the inversion results show remarkable convergence patterns for most parameters, no unique solution emerges. We obtain five clusters of good fits, whose centroids are taken as acceptable model solutions. Based on the predicted time series of average denudation rate and soil thickness, plus snapshots of the soil distribution at characteristic times, we discuss these solutions and, comparing them with independent data not involved in the misfit function, we identify the most realistic scenario. Beyond providing first‐order estimates of several parameters that compare well with published data, our results show that denudation rates increase dramatically for a short time at both warm–cold and cold–warm transitions, when the mean annual temperature passes through the [0, ?5 °C] range. We also point to the overwhelming importance of solifluction in shaping hillslopes and transporting soil, and the role of depth‐dependent creep (including frost creep) throughout the climatic cycle, whereas the contributions of simple creep and overland flow are minor. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hillslopes in humid-tropical climates aren't always wet: Implications for hydrologic response and landslide initiation in Puerto Rico

The devastating impacts of the widespread flooding and landsliding in Puerto Rico following the September 2017 landfall of Hurricane Maria highlight the increasingly extreme atmospheric disturbances and enhanced hazard potential in mountainous humid-tropical climate zones. Long-standing conceptual models for hydrologically driven hazards in Puerto Rico posit that hillslope soils remain wet throughout the year, and therefore, that antecedent soil wetness imposes a negligible effect on hazard potential. Our post-Maria in situ hillslope hydrologic observations, however, indicate that while some slopes remain wet throughout the year, others exhibit appreciable seasonal and intra-storm subsurface drainage. Therefore, we evaluated the performance of hydro-meteorological (soil wetness and rainfall) versus intensity-duration (rainfall only) hillslope hydrologic response thresholds that identify the onset of positive pore-water pressure, a predisposing factor for widespread slope instability in this region. Our analyses also consider the role of soil-water storage and infiltration rates on runoff generation, which are relevant factors for flooding hazards. We found that the hydro-meteorological thresholds outperformed intensity-duration thresholds for a seasonally wet, coarse-grained soil, although they did not outperform intensity-duration thresholds for a perennially wet, fine-grained soil. These end-member soils types may also produce radically different stormflow responses, with subsurface flow being more common for the coarse-grained soils underlain by intrusive rocks versus infiltration excess and/or saturation excess for the fine-grained soils underlain by volcaniclastic rocks. We conclude that variability in soil-hydraulic properties, as opposed to climate zone, is the dominant factor that controls runoff generation mechanisms and modulates the relative importance of antecedent soil wetness for our hillslope hydrologic response thresholds.     

Potential wind erosion rate response to climate and land‐use changes in the watershed of the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River,China, 1986–2013

Climate and land‐use changes could strongly affect wind erosion and in turn cause a series of environmental problems. Thus, the objective of this study was to assess potential wind erosion rate (PWER) response to climate and land‐use changes in the watershed of the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River (NIMRYR), China. The watershed of NIMRYR suffers from serious wind erosion hazards, and over recent decades, wind erosion intensity and distribution has changed, following climate and land‐use changes. To understand these processes in the NIMRYR watershed, the Integrated Wind Erosion Modelling System (IWEMS) and the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) were used to calculate the PWER under different climate conditions and land‐use scenarios, and to assess the influences of climate and land‐use changes on the PWER. The results show the PWER in the whole watershed had a significant declining trend from 1986 to 2013. The results of the relationship among PWER, climate change, and land‐use changes showed that climate change was the dominant control on the PWER change in this watershed. Compared to the period 1986–1995, the average PWER decreased 23.32% and 64.98% as a result of climate change in the periods 1996–2005 and 2006–2013, respectively. In contrast with climate change, the effects of land‐use changes on the average PWER were much lower, and represented a change in PWER of less than 3.3% across the whole watershed. The study method we used could provide some valuable reference for wind erosion modelling, and the research results should help climate and land‐use researchers to develop strategies to reduce wind erosion. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characteristics of climate change in the “significant impact zone” affected by aerosols over eastern China in warm seasons

Through analysis of the distribution pattern and changing characteristics of atmospheric aerosols over the East Asia region during warm seasons in recent 20 a and beyond as well as their possible interac- tive relationship with a variety of meteorological elements, it is found that the high-value zone of aerosol optical depth derived from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), its significant negative correlation zones in terms of sunshine duration (SD) and surface air temperature (SAT) and its significant positive correlation zones with low-level cloud amount (LCC) are co-located in the South China region during warm periods. Based on this finding, the region is referred to as a "significant impact zone" (SI zone) affected by aerosols. Then, a comparative analysis is made on variation differ- ences of observed SAT, SD and LCC, etc. in different regions. It is also found that the LCC is increased and the SD is decreased within the "SI zone" over eastern China during the warm season. These characteristics are more evident than those beyond the zone, while the warming trend within the zone is evidently weaker than that outside it. Studies show that since recent 20 a, under the influence of aerosols, the LCC tend to increase substantially with a clear decrease of SD and an unnoticeable warming trend within the "SI zone". Comparing with the climate change beyond the zone, the difference is significant. Therefore, the effects of atmospheric aerosols on climate is possibly one of the contri- butions to the difference of climate change existed between the southern and northern parts of the Eastern China during a warm season.     

Assessing groundwater sustainability under changing climate using isotopic tracers and climate modelling,southwest Ohio,USA

Groundwater, an essential resource, is likely to change with global warming because of changes in the CO₂ levels, temperature and precipitation. Here, we combine water isotope geochemistry with climate modelling to examine future groundwater recharge in southwest Ohio, USA. We first establish the stable isotope profiles of oxygen and deuterium in precipitation and groundwater. We then use an isotope mass balance model to determine seasonal groundwater recharge from precipitation. Climate model output is used to project future changes in precipitation and its seasonal distribution under medium and high climate change scenarios. Finally, these results are combined to examine future changes in groundwater recharge. We find that 76% of the groundwater recharge occurs in the cool season. Climate models project precipitation increase in the cool season and decrease in the warm season. The total groundwater recharge is expected to increase by 3.2% (8.8%) under the medium (high) climate change scenarios.     

Hydrogeological response to climate change in alpine hillslopes

Climate change threatens water resources in snowmelt‐dependent regions by altering the fraction of snow and rain and spurring an earlier snowmelt season. The bulk of hydrological research has focused on forecasting response in streamflow volumes and timing to a shrinking snowpack; however, the degree to which subsurface storage offsets the loss of snow storage in various alpine geologic settings, i.e. the hydrogeologic buffering capacity, is still largely unknown. We address this research need by assessing the affects of climate change on storage and runoff generation for two distinct hydrogeologic settings present in alpine systems: a low storage granitic and a greater storage volcanic hillslope. We use a physically based integrated hydrologic model fully coupled to a land surface model to run a base scenario and then three progressive warming scenarios, and account for the shifts in each component of the water budget. For hillslopes with greater water retention, the larger storage volcanic hillslope buffered streamflow volumes and timing, but at the cost of greater reductions in groundwater storage relative to the low storage granite hillslope. We found that the results were highly sensitive to the unsaturated zone retention parameters, which in the case of alpine systems can be a mix of matrix or fracture flow. The presence of fractures and thus less retention in the unsaturated zone significantly decreased the reduction in recharge and runoff for the volcanic hillslope in climate warming scenarios. This approach highlights the importance of incorporating physically based subsurface flow in to alpine hydrology models, and our findings provide ways forward to arrive at a conceptual model that is both consistent with geology and hydrologic principles. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The critical role of climate and saprolite weathering in landscape evolution

Landscapes evolve in response to external forces, such as tectonics and climate, that influence surface processes of erosion and weathering. Internal feedbacks between erosion and weathering also play an integral role in regulating the landscapes response. Our understanding of these internal and external feedbacks is limited to a handful of field‐based studies, only a few of which have explicitly examined saprolite weathering. Here, we report rates of erosion and weathering in saprolite and soil to quantify how climate influences denudation, by focusing on an elevation transect in the western Sierra Nevada Mountains, California. We use an adapted mass balance approach and couple soil‐production rates from the cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) ¹⁰Be with zirconium concentrations in rock, saprolite and soil. Our approach includes deep saprolite weathering and suggests that previous studies may have underestimated denudation rates across similar landscapes. Along the studied climate gradient, chemical weathering rates peak at middle elevations (1200–2000 m), averaging 112·3 ± 9·7 t km^–2 y^–1 compared to high and low elevation sites (46·8 ± 5·2 t km^?2 y^?1). Measured weathering rates follow similar patterns with climate as those of predicted silica fluxes, modeled using an Arrhenius temperature relationship and a linear relationship between flux and precipitation. Furthermore, chemical weathering and erosion are tightly correlated across our sites, and physical erosion rates increase with both saprolite weathering rates and intensity. Unexpectedly, saprolite and soil weathering intensities are inversely related, such that more weathered saprolites are overlain by weakly weathered soils. These data quantify exciting links between climate, weathering and erosion, and together suggest that climate controls chemical weathering via temperature and moisture control on chemical reaction rates. Our results also suggest that saprolite weathering reduces bedrock coherence, leading to faster rates of soil transport that, in turn, decrease material residence times in the soil column and limit soil weathering. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The sensitivity of hillslope bedrock erosion to precipitation

Decoupling the impacts of climate and tectonics on hillslope erosion rates is a challenging problem. Hillslope erosion rates are well known to respond to changes in hillslope boundary conditions (e.g. channel incision rates) through their dependence on soil thickness, and precipitation is an important control on soil formation. Surprisingly though, compilations of hillslope denudation rates suggest little precipitation sensitivity. To isolate the effects of precipitation and boundary condition, we measured rates of soil production from bedrock and described soils on hillslopes along a semi‐arid to hyperarid precipitation gradient in northern Chile. In each climate zone, hillslopes with contrasting boundary conditions (actively incising channels versus non‐eroding landforms) were studied. Channel incision rates, which ultimately drive hillslope erosion, varied with precipitation rather than tectonic setting throughout the study area. These precipitation‐dependent incision rates are mirrored on the hillslopes, where erosion shifts from relatively fast and biologically‐driven to extremely slow and salt‐driven as precipitation decreases. Contrary to studies in humid regions, bedrock erosion rates increase with precipitation following a power law, from ～1 m Ma^?1 in the hyperarid region to ～40 m Ma^?1 in the semi‐arid region. The effect of boundary condition on soil thickness was observed in all climate zones (thicker soils on hillslopes with stable boundaries compared to hillslopes bounded by active channels), but the difference in bedrock erosion rates between the hillslopes within a climate region (slower erosion rates on hillslopes with stable boundaries) decreased as precipitation decreased. The biotic‐abiotic threshold also marks the precipitation rate below which bedrock erosion rates are no longer a function of soil thickness. Our work shows that hillslope processes become sensitive to precipitation as life disappears and the ability of the landscape to respond to tectonics decreases. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of land-use and climate changes on ecosystem productivity and carbon cycle in the cropping-grazing transitional zone in China

Terrestrial ecosystems are both a carbon source and sink, therefore play an important role in the global carbon cycle that act as a link of interactions between human activities and climate changes[1,2]. Climate change impacts ecosystem carbon cycle through af- fecting biological processes, e.g. plant photosynthesis, respiration, and soil carbon decomposition. Land-use change directly modifies the distribution and structure of terrestrial ecosystems and hence the carbon storage and fluxes. Usi…     

Runoff response to multiple land-use changes and climate perturbations

Runoff response to multiple land-use changes and climate perturbations is distinct, and the main influencing factors vary significantly in different regions. However, few have simultaneously considered the effects of multiple land use changes (vegetation cover changes, terraces and check-dams construction, and urban expansion) and climatic perturbations (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and temperature) on runoff and constructed separate expressions for distinct study areas. This article attempted to determine the main influencing factors of runoff according to the fitting function in the eight subregions of the middle Yellow River (MYR), construct the expressions between the controlling parameter in the Budyko framework and the main factors, and quantify the contribution of climate factors and land use changes to runoff by combining the elasticity coefficient in each subregion. The results indicated that climate factors and land use changes could significantly impact controlling parameters, and there were differences between regions. Climate change promoted an increase in runoff, while land use change promoted its reduction, and the reduction value outweighed its increase. In terms of land use changes, increasing vegetation coverage could suppress runoff reduction, while constructing terraces and check-dams could promote its reduction. The urban expansion benefited runoff collection and, therefore, could suppress runoff reduction. Its absolute contribution rate exceeded 200% in apparent urban expansion areas. In addition, the contribution rates of land use to runoff changes in the northern arid and semi-arid regions were significantly higher than those in the southern, and they were more sensitive to land use changes. The research results can provide a reference for analysing the runoff response to different land-use changes and can further advance people's understanding of the water cycle.     

Assess hydrological responses to a warming climate at the Lysina Critical Zone Observatory in Central Europe

Climate warming is having profound effects on the hydrological cycle by increasing atmospheric demand, changing water availability, and snow seasonality. Europe suffered three distinct heat waves in 2019, and 11 of the 12 hottest years ever recorded took place in the past two decades, which will potentially change seasonal streamflow patterns and long-term trends. Central Europe exhibited six dry years in a row since 2014. This study uses data from a well-documented headwater catchment in Central Europe (Lysina) to explore hydrological responses to a warming climate. We applied a lumped parameter hydrologic model Brook90 and a distributed model Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) to simulate long-term hydrological change under future climate scenarios. Both models performed well on historic streamflow and in agreement with each other according to the catchment water budget. In addition, PIHM was able to simulate lateral groundwater redistribution within the catchment validated by the groundwater table dynamics. The long-term trends in runoff and low flow were captured by PIHM only. We applied different EURO-CORDEX models with two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 4.5, 8.5) and found significant impacts on runoff and evapotranspiration (ET) for the period of 2071–2100. Results from both models suggested reduced runoff and increased ET, while the monthly distribution of runoff was different. We used this catchment study to understand the importance of subsurface processes in projection of hydrologic response to a warming climate.     

Vulnerability of water resources,vegetation productivity and soil erosion to climate change in Mediterranean watersheds

Climate change is expected to increase temperatures and lower rainfall in Mediterranean regions; however, there is a great degree of uncertainty as to the amount of change. This limits the prediction capacity of models to quantify impacts on water resources, vegetation productivity and erosion. This work circumvents this problem by analysing the sensitivity of these variables to varying degrees of temperature change (increased by up to 6·4 °C), rainfall (reduced by up to 40%) and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (increased by up to 100%). The SWAT watershed model was applied to 18 large watersheds in two contrasting regions of Portugal, one humid and one semi‐arid; incremental changes to climate variables were simulated using a stochastic weather generator. The main results indicate that water runoff, particularly subsurface runoff, is highly sensitive to these climate change trends (down by 80%). The biomass growth of most species showed a declining trend (wheat down by 40%), due to the negative impacts of increasing temperatures, dampened by higher CO₂ concentrations. Mediterranean species, however, showed a positive response to milder degrees of climate change. Changes to erosion depended on the interactions between the decline in surface runoff (driving erosion rates downward) and biomass growth (driving erosion rates upward). For the milder rainfall changes, soil erosion showed a significant increasing trend in wheat fields (up to 150% in the humid watersheds), well above the recovery capacity of the soil. Overall, the results indicate a shift of the humid watersheds to acquire semi‐arid characteristics, such as more irregular river flows and increasingly marginal conditions for agricultural production. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ERORUN-STAFOR: A collaborative observatory for the multidisciplinary study of the critical zone processes in a tropical volcanic watershed including a Tropical Montane Cloud Forest

Tropical volcanic islands are biodiversity hotspots where the Critical Zone (CZ) still remains poorly studied. In such steep topographic environments associated with extreme climatic events (cyclones), deployment and maintenance of monitoring equipment is highly challenging. While a few Critical Zone Observatories (CZOS) are located in tropical volcanic regions, none of them includes a Tropical Montane Cloud Forest (TMCF) at the watershed scale. We present here the dataset of the first observatory from the French network of critical zone observatories (OZCAR) located in an insular tropical and volcanic context, integrating a ‘Tropical Montane Cloud Forest’: The ERORUN-STAFOR observatory. This collaborative observatory is located in the northern part of La Réunion island (Indian Ocean) within the 45.0 km² watershed of Rivière des Pluies (i.e., Rainfall river) which hosts the TMCF of Plaines des Fougères, one of the best preserved natural habitats in La Réunion Island. Since 2014, the ERORUN-STAFOR monitoring in collaboration with local partners collected a multidisciplinary dataset with a constant improvement of the instrumentation over time. At the watershed scale and in its vicinity, the ERORUN-STAFOR observatory includes 10 measurement stations covering the upstream, midstream and downstream part of the watershed. The stations record a total of 48 different variables through continuous (sensors) or periodic (sampling) monitoring. The dataset consists of continuous time series variables related to (i) meteorology, including precipitation, air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, net radiation, atmospheric pressure, cloud water flux, irradiance, leaf wetness and soil temperature, (ii) hydrology, including water level and temperature, discharge and electrical conductivity (EC) of stream, (iii) hydrogeology, including (ground)water level, water temperature and EC in two piezometers and one horizontally drilled groundwater gallery completed by soil moisture measurements under the canopy. The dataset is completed by periodic time series variables related to (iv) hydrogeochemistry, including field parameters and water analysis results. The periodic sampling survey provides chemical and isotopic compositions of rainfall, groundwater, and stream water at different locations of this watershed. The ERORUN-STAFOR monitoring dataset extends from 2014 to 2022 with an acquisition frequency from 10 min to hourly for the sensor variables and from weekly to monthly frequency for the sampling. Despite the frequent maintenance of the monitoring sites, several data gaps exist due to the remote location of some sites and instrument destruction by cyclones. Preliminary results show that the Rivière des Pluies watershed is characterized by high annual precipitation (>3000 mm y⁻¹) and a fast hydrologic response to precipitation (≈2 h basin lag time). The long-term evolution of the deep groundwater recharge is mainly driven by the occurrence of cyclone events with a seasonal groundwater response. The water chemical results support existing hydrogeological conceptual models suggesting a deep infiltration of the upstream infiltrated rainfall. The TMCF of Plaine des Fougères shows a high water storage capacity (>2000% for the Bryophytes) that makes this one a significant input of water to groundwater recharge which still needs to be quantified. This observatory is a unique research site in an insular volcanic tropical environment offering three windows of observation for the study of critical zone processes through upstream-midstream-downstream measurements sites. This high-resolution dataset is valuable to assess the response of volcanic tropical watersheds and aquifers at both event and long-term scales (i.e., global change). It will also provide insights in the hydrogeological conceptual model of volcanic islands, including the significant role of the TMCFs in the recharge processes as well as the watershed hydrosedimentary responses to extreme climatic events and their respective evolution under changing climatic conditions. All data sets are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7983138 .     

The effects of possible future climate change on evaporation losses from four contrasting UK water catchment areas

Evaporation losses from four water catchment areas under different land uses and climatic conditions were calculated using formulations developed from small plot studies. These formulations, dependent on rainfall inputs, potential evaporation and air temperature, were extrapolated to the catchment scale using land classifications based on analysing remotely sensed imagery. The approach adopted was verified by comparing the estimated annual evaporation losses with catchment water use, given by the difference between rainfall inputs and stream flow outputs, allowing for changes in soil moisture. This procedure was repeated using modified values of rainfall, potential evaporation and air temperature, as given by a climate change scenario. The computed evaporation losses were used in annual water balances to calculate stream flow losses under the climate change scenario. It was found that, in general, stream flow from areas receiving high rainfall would increase as a result of climate change. For low rainfall areas, a decrease in stream flow was predicted. The largest actual changes in stream flow were predicted to occur during the winter months, although the largest percentage changes will occur during the summer months. The implications of these changes on potable water supply are discussed. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A low‐dimensional model of bedrock weathering and lateral flow coevolution in hillslopes: 2. Controls on weathering and permeability profiles,drainage hydraulics,and solute export pathways

The advance of a chemical weathering front into the bedrock of a hillslope is often limited by the rate weathering products that can be carried away, maintaining chemical disequilibrium. If the weathering front is within the saturated zone, groundwater flow downslope may affect the rate of transport and weathering—however, weathering also modifies the rock permeability and the subsurface potential gradient that drives lateral groundwater flow. This feedback may help explain why there tends to be neither “runaway weathering” to great depth nor exposed bedrock covering much of the earth and may provide a mechanism for weathering front advance to keep pace with incision of adjacent streams into bedrock. This is the second of a two‐part paper exploring the coevolution of bedrock weathering and lateral flow in hillslopes using a simple low‐dimensional model based on hydraulic groundwater theory. Here, we show how a simplified kinetic model of 1‐D rock weathering can be extended to consider lateral flow in a 2‐D hillslope. Exact and approximate analytical solutions for the location and thickness of weathering within the hillslope are obtained for a number of cases. A location for the weathering front can be found such that lateral flow is able to export weathering products at the rate required to keep pace with stream incision at steady state. Three pathways of solute export are identified: “diffusing up,” where solutes diffuse up and away from the weathering front into the laterally flowing aquifer; “draining down,” where solutes are advected primarily downward into the unweathered bedrock; and “draining along,” where solutes travel laterally within the weathering zone. For each pathway, a different subsurface topography and overall relief of unweathered bedrock within the hillslope is needed to remove solutes at steady state. The relief each pathway requires depends on the rate of stream incision raised to a different power, such that at a given incision rate, one pathway requires minimal relief and, therefore, likely determines the steady‐state hillslope profile.     

The implications of bias correction methods and climate model ensembles on soil erosion projections under climate change

Climate change will most likely cause an increase in extreme precipitation and consequently an increase in soil erosion in many locations worldwide. In most cases, climate model output is used to assess the impact of climate change on soil erosion; however, there is little knowledge of the implications of bias correction methods and climate model ensembles on projected soil erosion rates. Using a soil erosion model, we evaluated the implications of three bias correction methods (delta change, quantile mapping and scaled distribution mapping) and climate model selection on regional soil erosion projections in two contrasting Mediterranean catchments. Depending on the bias correction method, soil erosion is projected to decrease or increase. Scaled distribution mapping best projects the changes in extreme precipitation. While an increase in extreme precipitation does not always result in increased soil loss, it is an important soil erosion indicator. We suggest first establishing the deviation of the bias-corrected climate signal with respect to the raw climate signal, in particular for extreme precipitation. Furthermore, individual climate models may project opposite changes with respect to the ensemble average; hence climate model ensembles are essential in soil erosion impact assessments to account for climate model uncertainty. We conclude that the impact of climate change on soil erosion can only accurately be assessed with a bias correction method that best reproduces the projected climate change signal, in combination with a representative ensemble of climate models. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.