The historical and palaeoflood record of Katherine river,northern Australia: evaluating the likelihood of extreme discharge events in the context of the 1998 flood

The discharge regimes of the large rivers of northern Australia are characterized by the occurrence of extreme flood events with far‐reaching environmental and societal impacts. In January 1998 the largest flood ever recorded on the Katherine River, northern Australia, resulted in widespread inundation and resultant damage to the town of Katherine. The occurrence of the flood emphasized the unreliability of the then available flood probability estimates and prompted a palaeoflood approach to estimate the recurrence interval of the event. The location of Katherine is ideal for such a study, as the town is located immediately downstream from Katherine Gorge, which provides the necessary bedrock‐confined channel required for such an approach. In addition, previous work in Katherine Gorge had demonstrated that the gorge sections hold suitable deposits for palaeoflood stage reconstruction. The results of the present study show that at least two flow events with discharges similar to the 1998 flood have occurred within the last 600 years, and that high‐magnitude floods are a general feature of the discharge record of the Katherine River over the last c. 2000 years. Furthermore, because the study was undertaken within a few months of the occurrence of the 1998 flood, it provided the opportunity to evaluate the previously obtained flood discharge estimates and draw attention to the general uncertainties associated with palaeoflood studies. Our results emphasize that palaeoflood stage estimates based on slackwater deposits need to be treated as conservative estimates only. More specifically, with respect to the 1998 event, our study demonstrates that the controls of flood peak were more complex than simply flood routing through the gorge sections. It is clear that the areas downstream from Katherine Gorge made an important contribution to the flood peak of the 1998 event. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1840年以来长江大洪水演变与气候变化关系初探

长江洪水灾害是我国频率高、为患严重的自然灾害之一.本文依据可靠资料,选择1840年至2000年间32次大洪水记录,探讨其演变与气候变化的关系.认知1910s前的19世纪冷期出现大洪水13次(包括1870年的极值大洪水事件)频率为1.9次／10a.1921-2000年间出现了大洪水19次,频率为2.4次／10a.20世纪暖期又分出两个变暖时段,前一变暖时段的峰值期1920s-1940s出现大洪水9次,包含1931年全流域大洪水.后一变暖时段,即1980s与1990s出现大洪水8次.实测记录到的最大洪水1954年位于前一变暖时段结束阶段.1990s是全球,也是我国近百年中最暖年代,受东南季风影响大的中下游地区夏季降水量是近百年最多的,大暴雨频率也是有较多记录的40年来最高的.以此出现了10年5次大洪水高频率现象,包含1998年全流域型大洪水,表明了全球变暖的显著影响.也指示30-40年问周期性振荡中多雨年代.如此可预期21世纪初期降水会有小幅度下降与大洪水频率在短期内降低的可能性.长江上游受西南季风影响较大,19世纪下半期与20世纪上半期为多降水期,大洪水频率较高.20世纪下半期为少降水期,大洪水频率较低.关于气候变化研究有待深入,前景不易预估.     

Assessing the influence of the Merzbacher Lake outburst floods on discharge using the hydrological model SWIM in the Aksu headwaters,Kyrgyzstan/NW China

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) often have a significant impact on downstream users. Including their effects in hydrological models, identifying past occurrences and assessing their potential impacts are challenges for hydrologists working in mountainous catchments. The regularly outbursting Merzbacher Lake is located in the headwaters of the Aksu River, the most important source of water discharge to the Tarim River, northwest China. Modelling its water resources and the evaluation of potential climate change impacts on river discharge are indispensable for projecting future water availability for the intensively cultivated river oases downstream of the Merzbacher Lake and along the Tarim River. The semi‐distributed hydrological model SWIM was calibrated to the outlet station Xiehela on the Kumarik River, by discharge the largest tributary to the Aksu River. The glacial lake outburst floods add to the difficulties of modelling this high‐mountain, heavily glaciated catchment with poor data coverage and quality. The aims of the study are to investigate the glacier lake outburst floods using a modelling tool. Results include a two‐step model calibration of the Kumarik catchment, an approach for the identification of the outburst floods using the measured gauge data and the modelling results and estimations of the outburst flood volumes. Results show that a catchment model can inform GLOF investigations by providing ‘normal’ (i.e. without the outburst floods) catchment discharge. The comparison of the simulated and observed discharge proves the occurrence of GLOFs and highlights the influences of the GLOFs on the downstream water balance. © 2013 The Authors. Hydrological Processes Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Spatial and temporal variability of flood seasonality in Wales

High‐magnitude floods across Europe within the last decade have resulted in the widespread reassessment of flood risk; this coupled with the introduction of the Water Framework Directive (2000) has increased the need for a detailed understanding of seasonal variability in flood magnitude and frequency. Mean day of flood (MDF) and flood seasonality were calculated for Wales using 30 years of gauged river‐flow records (1973–2002). Noticeable regional variations in timing and length of flood season are evident, with flooding occurring earlier in small catchments draining higher elevations in north and mid‐west Wales. Low‐altitude regions in West Wales exposed to westerly winds experience flooding during October–January, while large eastern draining catchments experience later flooding (January–February). In the northeast and mid‐east regions December–January months experience the greatest number of floods, while the southeast has a slightly longer flood season (December–February), with a noticeable increase in January floods. Patterns obtained from MDF data demonstrate their effectiveness and use in analysing regional patterns in flood seasonality, but catchment‐specific determinants, e.g. catchment wetness, size and precipitation regime are important factors in flood seasonality. Relatively strong correlations between precipitation and flood activity are evident in Wales, with a poorer relationship between flooding and weather types and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

太湖1889洪水年的流域水文模拟

由于受到水文观测资料时间短的限制,目前难以认识百年遇机率的极端洪水.为此,本文根据19世纪末历史文献的洪水灾害记录,利用流域水文模型,对太湖1889洪水年的流域产流、入湖汇流等水文特征和过程进行模拟.本研究设计了三套模拟实验:首先在现代气候控制实验基础上对1988-2002年时间系列和特大洪水年进行水文模拟和模型率定校验;其次,采用长江下游19世纪末的气候观测资料驱动,对极端年份1889年逐日洪水过程模拟;最后,为减少1 a洪水年模拟的不确定性,还采用蒙特卡罗Bootstrap法模拟了15 a的流域气候场,在5475 d样本下进行特征年份的水文模拟.模拟结果表明,1889年洪水期间产流在当年6月底达到最大,1%频率的径流深达8.6 mm/d,95%CI的误差在-2.94～3.26 mm/d之间.汇入太湖径流同期达到最大,1%频率的洪水流量达到1286.9 m3/s,95%CI的误差在-128.3～165.7 m3/s之间.根据洪水Log-Normal概率分布,计算1889洪水年的重现期为149 a.经Bootstrap法对误差置信区的模拟,95%CI检验在70～175 a间的重现期可信.该研究为延长20世纪洪水序列、拓展对百年时间尺度的特大洪水的认识提供了动力学模拟方面的科学依据.     

The palaeoflood record of a hyperarid catchment,Nahal Zin,Negev Desert,Israel

The palaeohydrology of Nahal Zin, a 1400 km² catchment in the hyperarid Negev Desert, is inferred from slackwater deposits and palaeostage indicators in a canyon near its lower end. The palaeoflood record, augmented by the instrumental and historical records of the last decade, includes 28 floods ranging from 200 to 1500 m³s⁻¹ over the last 2000 years. This helps to reanalyse the frequency of floods in this drainage system. The clusters of floods around 1000 years BP and again during the last 60 years are characterized by high flow magnitudes. Periods with many floods correspond well to periods with high Dead Sea levels and are probably relatively wet periods, while periods with few floods correspond well to low Dead Sea levels indicating a drier climate. Fluctuations in the frequency of floods are typical of periods of transition from one climate regime to another. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fluvial suspended sediment transfer and lacustrine sedimentation of recent flood turbidites in proglacial Eklutna Lake,western Chugach Mountains,Alaska

Suspended sediment delivery and deposition in proglacial lakes is generally sensitive to a wide range of hydrometeorologic and geomorphic controls. High discharge conditions are of particular importance in many glaciolacustrine records, with individual floods potentially recorded as distinctive turbidites. We used an extensive network of surface sediment cores and hydroclimatic monitoring data to analyse recent flood turbidites and associated sediment transfer controls over instrumental periods at Eklutna Lake, western Chugach Mountains, Alaska. Close to a decade of fluvial data from primary catchment tributaries show a dominating influence of discharge on sediment delivery, with various interconnections with other related hydroclimatic controls. Multivariate fluvial models highlight and help quantify some complexities in sediment transfer, including intra-annual variations, meteorological controls, and the influence of subcatchment glacierization. Sediments deposited in Eklutna Lake during the last half century are discontinuously varved and contain multiple distinctive turbidites. Over a 30-year period of stratigraphic calibration, we correlate the four thickest flood turbidites (1989, 1995, 2006, and 2012) to specific regional storms. The studied turbidites correlate with late-summer and early-autumn rainstorms with a magnitude of relatively instantaneous sedimentation 3–15 times greater than annual background accumulation. Our network of sediment core data captured the broad extent and sediment variability among the study turbidites and background sediment yield. Within-lake spatial modelling of deposition quantifies variable rates of downlake thinning and sediment focusing effects, and highlights especially large differences between the thickest flood turbidites and background sedimentation. This we primarily relate to strongly contrasting dispersion processes controlled by inflow current strength and turbidity. Sediment delivery is of interest for this catchment because of reservoir and water supply operations. Furthermore, although smaller floods may not be consistently represented, the lake likely contains a valuable proxy record of regional flooding proximal to major population centers of south-central Alaska including Anchorage.     

洞庭湖退田还湖及其生态恢复过程分析

洞庭湖曾是我国第一大淡水湖泊,盛期面积达6000km2以上,具有调蓄长江中游洪水的巨大生态服务功能.但经过近百年来的沧桑变迁,湖泊发生了巨大变化,由于泥沙的严重淤积和围湖垦殖活动,湖泊面积已萎缩至2625km2,为我国第二大淡水湖泊.湖泊萎缩削弱了其生态服务功能,并由此引发了江湖洪水愈演愈烈的形势.1998年长江流域洪涝灾害之后,中国政府及时提出了"退田还湖"等洪水治理的32字指导原则,湖区各地随即积极开展了"退田还湖、平垸行洪和移民建镇"等工程.本文针对湖区退田还湖双退堤垸的生态恢复过程,选择湖南省汉寿县的青山垸进行了跟踪研究.结果显示了湖泊湿地恢复的阶段性特征,并为我国日益严重的湖泊富营养化问题的治理,提供了新的途径和可供参考的科学依据.     

Channel and floodplain response to recent abrupt climate change: The tyne basin,Northern England

This paper examines the timing, nature and magnitude of river response in upland, piedmont and lowland reaches of the Tyne basin, northern England, to high-frequency (20–30 year) changes in climate and flood regime since 1700 AD. Over this period fluvial activity has been characterized by alternating phases of river-bed incision and stability coinciding with non-random, decadal-scale fluctuations in flood frequency and hydroclimate that appear to be linked to changes in large-scale upper atmospheric circulation patterns. Episodes of widespread channel bed incision (1760–1799, 1875–1894, 1955–1969) result from a higher frequency of large floods (> 20 year return period) and cool, wet climate under meridional circulation regimes. Phases of more moderate floods (5–20 year return period), corresponding to zonal circulation types (1820–1874, 1920–1954), are characterized by enhanced lateral reworking and sediment transfer in upper reaches of the catchment, and channel narrowing and infilling downstream. Rates of fluvial activity are reduced in intermediate periods (1800–1819, 1895–1919) with no dominant circulation regime associated with lower flood frequency and magnitude. The results of this study provide a valuable guide for forecasting probable drainage basin and channel response to future climate change.     

Late Pleistocene outburst floods from Issyk Kul,Kyrgyzstan?

Elevated shorelines and lake sediments surrounding Issyk Kul, the world's second largest mountain lake, record fluctuating lake levels during Quaternary times. Together with bathymetric and geochemical data, these markers document alternating phases of lake closure and external drainage. The uppermost level of lake sediments requires a former damming of the lake's western outlet through the Boam gorge. We test previous hypothesised ice or landslide dam failures by exploring possible links between late Quaternary lake levels and outbursts. We review and recompile the chronology of reported changes in lake site, and offer new ages of abandoned shorelines using ¹⁴C in bivalve and gastropod shells, and plant detritus, as well as sand lenses in delta and river sediments using Infrared Stimulated Luminescence. Our dates are consistent with elevated lake levels between ~45 ka and 22 ka. Cosmogenic ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al exposure ages of fan terraces containing erratic boulders (>3 m) downstream of the gorge constrain the timing of floods to 20.5–18.5 ka, postdating a highstand of Issyk Kul. A flow‐competence analysis gives a peak discharge of >10⁴ m³ s^–1 for entraining and transporting these boulders. Palaeoflood modelling, however, shows that naturally dammed lakes unconnected to Issyk Kul could have produced such high discharges upon sudden emptying. Hence, although our data are consistent with hypotheses of catastrophic outburst floods, average lake‐level changes of up to 90 mm yr^–1 in the past 150 years were highly variable without any outbursts, so that linking lake‐level drops to catastrophic dam breaks remains ambiguous using sedimentary archives alone. This constraint may readily apply to other Quaternary lakes of that size elsewhere. Nonetheless, our reconstructed Pleistocene floods are among the largest reported worldwide, and motivate further research into the palaeoflood hydrology of Central Asia. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A high magnitude storm and flood in a hyperarid catchment,Nahal Zin,Negev Desert,Israel

In October 1991 a high magnitude rainstorm flood, estimated return period 40 years, occurred in Nahal Zin, a 1400 km² catchment in the hyperarid Negev Desert. The meso-scale structure of the storm was a curved squall line that developed from a thunderstorm in accordance with the topography of the catchment divide, by which it was strongly affected. Tropical moisture reached the area via the subtropical jet stream, in conjunction with a lower level northward intrusion of the Red Sea trough (RST-N) into the Mediterranean Sea. Rainfall, as measured at the few and sparse gauging stations, was much too small to account for the resulting large flood. Peak flow and other hydraulic characteristics of the flood were indirectly reconstructed. The techniques of palaeoflood hydrology used were based on sedimentological evidence of fine-grained flood sediments deposited in back-flooded tributaries, as well as on other stage indicators. The HEC-2 procedure was employed to determine water surface profiles. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the event were studied through a combination of rainstorm analysis, remote sensing, hydrological and sedimentological data; they jointly explain the magnitude and timing of tributary contributions producing the integrated flood in the main channel. The flood as reconstructed reveals a three-peak hydrograph: two peaks were generated by the same storm but had different floodwave arrival times in the main channel; the third resulted from a local rainstorm which occurred on the following day and covered only one tributary. The curved structure of the storm and its dynamics in relation to catchment orientation resulted in storm move- ment in tandem with the floodwave. The synchronous contribution from all main tributaries preserved evidence of the floodwave both in stage and volume by replacing the transmission losses in the sections with thick alluvium. Other high magnitude floods on record for the large Negev Desert catchments are caused by a cold upper air incursion associated with the RST-N. Most of them occur in the autumn and are caused by storms with high-intensity rainfall. This is in stark contrast with the flooding behaviour of the semi-arid zone further north, which is linked primarily to the core of the Mediterranean winter. The complexities involved in the generation of a large desert flood, as revealed by this study, illustrate the fallacy of applying routine hydrological modelling to such events, and underline the need to study the processes involved in adequate detail. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Extreme hydrological events,palaeo-information and climate change

Abstract

Extreme flood events have been and continue to be one of the most important natural hazards responsible for deaths and economic losses. Extreme floods result in direct destructive effects during the time of the event, and they also may be followed by a related chain of indirect calamities such as famines and epidemics that produce additional damages and suffering. Extreme hydrological events that have occurred in the historical past may also occur in the future. Knowledge about magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of past extreme hydrological events in most regions are too short to adequately evaluate potential magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of extreme hydrological events. Stationary climate in which the mean and variance do not change over time is a basic underlying assumption of standard methodological procedures for estimating recurrence probabilities of extreme hydrological events. Palaeo-archives contained in river and lake sediments, fossil plant and animal matter, ice layers, and other natural archives show that the assumption of stationary climate is not valid when the time scale is extended beyond centuries and millennia. Records of past extreme floods that occurred long before the period of instrumentation can be reconstructed from the distribution of slackwater flood deposits or from derivation of water depths competent to transport the largest rocks found in flood deposited sediment. Palaeoflood records reconstructed from the Upper Mississippi and Lower Colorado River systems in the United States confirm nonstationary behaviour of the mean and variance in hydrological time series. These stratigraphic records have shown that even very modest climatic changes have resulted in very important changes in the magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of extreme floods. A close relationship was found between the palaeo-flood record of extreme floods in the Upper Mississippi River system and a palaeo-record of stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon preserved in speleothem calcite from a local cave. The relationship suggests that isotopic records elsewhere might be calibrated to provide insight about how future potential climate changes might impact extreme flood magnitudes and recurrence frequencies there. Atmospheric global circulation models (GCMs) mainly simulate average climatic conditions and are presently inadequate sources of information about how future climate changes might be represented at the extreme event scale. Palaeo-flood archives, however, provide basic information about how magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of extreme hydrological events responded to past climate changes and they also provide a reference base against which GCM simulations can be calibrated regionally and be better interpreted to decipher hydrological information at the extreme event scale.     

全球大陆末次盛冰期气候和植被研究进展

略述了鄱阳湖围垦的简要历史和现状,分析了近５０年来洪水水位的演变趋势,指出围垦使鄱阳湖面积和容积缩小,调蓄功能衰退,以致水情不断恶化,洪峰水位逐渐上升,高水位的出现频率明显加大,致灾洪水越来越频繁,在此基础上,将围垦对洪水位的影响进行了分析计算,得出了各典型年洪水在不同围垦背景下的围垦效应值。     

A hydrogeomorphic assessment of twenty‐first century floods in the UK

The occurrence of devastating floods in the British uplands during the first two decades of the twenty‐first century poses two key questions: (1) are recent events unprecedented in terms of their frequency and magnitude; and (2) is climate and/or land‐use change driving the apparent upturn in flooding? Conventional methods of analysing instrumental flow records cannot answer these questions because upland catchments are usually ungauged, and where records do exist they rarely provide more than 30–40 years of data. In this paper we analyse all lichen‐dated upland flood records in the United Kingdom (UK) to establish the longer‐term context and causes of recent severe flooding. Our new analysis of torrential sedimentary deposits shows that twenty‐first century floods are not unprecedented in terms of both their frequency (they were more frequent before 1960) and magnitude (the biggest events occurred during the seventeenth–nineteenth centuries). However, in some areas recent floods have either equalled or exceeded the largest historical events. The majority of recent floods have been triggered by torrential summer downpours related to a marked negative phase of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) between 2007 and 2012. It is of concern that historical data suggests there is far more capacity in the North Atlantic climate system to produce wetter and more prolonged flood‐rich periods than hitherto experienced in the twenty‐first century. Looking forwards, an increased likelihood of weather extremes due to climate change means that geomorphological based flood series extensions must be placed at the centre of flood risk assessment in the UK uplands and in similar areas worldwide. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Palaeoflood hydrology of the Salt river,Arizona

Geomorphic evidence along bedrock-confined reaches of the Salt River in east-central Arizona provides a record of the river's largest flood events. Fine-grained flood slackwater deposits accumulated at channel margin irregularities several metres above the low-flow channel. Discharges associated with flow events responsible for the deposits were estimated by computer flow modelling. These estimates document flood magnitudes in excess of gauged historic streamflows. Relative and radiocarbon dating suggest that a flood record in excess of 600 y is preserved in the slackwater sequences. A prominent flood scar cut into grussy hillslope soils allows the extension of the prehistoric flood record to several thousand years. A maximum discharge estimate of 4600 m³s^?1 affixed to the flood scar represents the largest flood event in the record, and is given a minimum recurrence interval of 1000–2000 y. The 1952 flood is the largest historic flow event experienced along the study reach and is estimated at 2900 m³s^?1. Two palaeoflood events preserved in the slackwater stratigraphy exceed the 1952 event, and are given recurrence intervals of 300 and 600 y. The latter flood event had an estimated discharge of 3200 m³s^?1. It is apparent that discharge estimates affixed to these infrequent, large-magnitude flood events approach a maximum with decreased probabilities (large recurrence intervals). This suggests that a physical limit on discharge may exist within the Salt River drainage basin and is perhaps directly related to drainage basin size.     

Trends in the timing and magnitude of floods in Canada

This study investigates trends in the timing and magnitude of seasonal maximum flood events across Canada. A new methodology for analyzing trends in the timing of flood events is developed that takes into account the directional character and multi-modality of flood occurrences. The methodology transforms the directional series of flood occurrences into new series by defining a new location of the origin. A test of flood seasonality (multi-modality) is then applied to identify dominant flood seasons. Floods from the dominant seasons are analyzed separately by a seasonal trend analysis. The Mann–Kendall test in conjunction with the method of pre-whitening is used in the trend analysis. Over 160 streamflow records from one common observation period are analyzed in watersheds with relatively pristine and stable land-use conditions. The results show weak signals of climate variability and/or change present in the timing of floods in Canada during the last three decades. Most of the significant trends in the timing of spring snowmelt floods are negative trends (earlier flood occurrence) found in the southern part of Canada. There are no significant trends identified in the timing of fall rainfall floods. However, the significance of the fall, rainfall-dominated flood season has been increasing in several analyzed watersheds. This may indicate increasing intensity of rainfall events during the recent years. Trends in the magnitude of floods are more pronounced than the trends in the timing of floods. Almost one fifth of all the analyzed stations show significant trends in the magnitude of snowmelt floods. Most of the significant trends are negative trends, suggesting decreasing magnitudes of snowmelt floods in Canada over the last three decades. Significant negative trends are found particularly in southern Ontario, northern Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia. There are no significant trends in the magnitude of rainfall floods found in the analyzed streamflow records. The results support the outcomes of previous streamflow trend studies conducted in Canada.     

Late Holocene flood magnitudes in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta resolved by a two-dimensional hydraulic modelling approach

Palaeoflood hydraulic modelling is essential for quantifying ‘millennial flood’ events not covered in the instrumental record. Palaeoflood modelling research has largely focused on one-dimensional analysis for geomorphologically stable fluvial settings because two-dimensional analysis for dynamic alluvial settings is time consuming and requires a detailed representation of the past landscape. In this study, we make the step to spatially continuous palaeoflood modelling for a large and dynamic lowland area. We applied advanced hydraulic model simulations (1D–2D coupled set-up in HEC-RAS with 950 channel sections and 108 × 10³ floodplain grid cells) to quantify the extent and magnitude of past floods in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta. As input, we used a high-resolution terrain reconstruction (palaeo-DEM) of the area in early mediaeval times, complemented with hydraulic roughness values. After conducting a series of model runs with increasing discharge magnitudes at the upstream boundary, we compared the simulated flood water levels with an inventory of exceeded and non-exceeded elevations extracted from various geological, archaeological and historical sources. This comparison demonstrated a Lower Rhine millennial flood magnitude of approximately 14,000 m³/s for the Late Holocene period before late mediaeval times. This value exceeds the largest measured discharges in the instrumental record, but not the design discharges currently accounted for in flood risk management.     

Flooding and geomorphic impacts in a mountain torrent: Raise Beck,central Lake District,England

Raise Beck is a mountain torrent located in the central Lake District fells, northern England (drainage area of 1·27 km²). The torrent shows evidence of several major flood events, the most recent of which was in January 1995. This event caused a major channel avulsion at the fan apex diverting the main flood flow to the south, blocking the A591 trunk road and causing local flooding. The meteorological conditions associated with this event are described using local rainfall records and climatic data. Records show 164 mm of rainfall in the 24 hours preceding the flood. The peak flood discharge is reconstructed using palaeohydrological and rainfall–runoff methods, which provide discharge values of 27–74 m³ s^?1, and 4–6 m³ s^?1, respectively. The flood transported boulders with b‐axes up to 1400 mm. These results raise some important general questions about flood estimation in steep mountain catchments. The geomorphological impact of the event is evaluated by comparing aerial photographs from before and after the flood, along with direct field observations. Over the historical timescale the impact and occurrence of flooding is investigated using lichenometry, long‐term rainfall data, and documentary records. Two major historical floods events are identified in the middle of the nineteenth century. The deposits of the recent and historical flood events dominate the sedimentological evidence of flooding at Raise Beck, therefore the catchment is sensitive to high magnitude, low frequency events. Following the 1995 flood much of the lower catchment was channelized using rip‐rap bank protection, re‐establishing flow north towards Thirlmere. The likely success of this management strategy in containing future floods is considered, based on an analysis of channel capacities. It is concluded that the channelization scheme is only a short‐term solution, which would fail to contain the discharge of an event equivalent to the January 1995 flood. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

River flood seasonality in the Northeast United States: Characterization and trends

The New England and Mid‐Atlantic regions of the Northeast United States have experienced climate‐induced increases in both the magnitude and frequency of floods. However, a detailed understanding of flood seasonality across these regions, and how flood seasonality may have changed over the instrumental record, has not been established. The annual timing of river floods reflects the flood‐generating mechanisms operating in a basin, and many aquatic and riparian organisms are adapted to flood seasonality, as are human uses of river channels and flood plains. Changes in flood seasonality may indicate changes in flood‐generating mechanisms, and their interactions, with important implications for habitats, flood plain infrastructure, and human communities. I applied a probabilistic method for identifying flood seasons at a monthly resolution for 90 Northeast U.S. watersheds with natural, or near‐natural, flood‐generating conditions. Historical trends in flood seasonality were also investigated. Analyses were based on peaks‐over‐threshold flood records that have, on average, 85 years of data and three peaks per year—thus providing more information about flood seasonality than annual maximums. The results show rich detail about annual flood timing across the region with each site having a unique pattern of monthly flood occurrence. However, a much smaller number of dominant seasonal patterns emerged when contiguous flood‐rich months were classified into commonly recognized seasons (e.g., Mar–May, spring). The dominant seasonal patterns identified by manual classification were corroborated by unsupervised classification methods (i.e., cluster analyses). Trend analyses indicated that the annual timing of flood‐rich seasons has generally not shifted over the period of record, but 65 sites with data from 1941 to 2013 revealed increased numbers of June–October floods—a trend driving previously documented increases in Northeast U.S. flood counts per year. These months have been historically flood‐poor at the sites examined, so warm‐season flood potential has increased with possible implications for aquatic and riparian organisms.     

Modelling wetland connectivity during overbank flooding in a tropical floodplain in north Queensland,Australia

Hydrological connectivity between floodplain wetlands and rivers is one of the principal driving mechanisms for the diversity, productivity and interactions of the major biota in river–floodplain systems. This article describes a method of quantifying flood‐induced overbank connectivity using a hydrodynamic model (MIKE 21) to calculate the timing, the duration and the spatial extent of the connections between several floodplain wetlands and rivers in the Tully–Murray catchment, north Queensland, Australia. Areal photogrammetry and field surveyed stream cross data were used to reproduce floodplain topography and rivers in the model. Laser altimetry (LiDAR)–derived fine resolution elevation data, for the central floodplain, were added to the topography model to improve the resolution of key features including wetlands, flow pathways and natural and artificial flow barriers. The hydrodynamic model was calibrated using a combination of in‐stream and floodplain gauge records. A range of off‐stream wetlands including natural and artificial, small and large were investigated for their connectivity with two main rivers (Tully and Murray) flowing over the floodplain for flood events of 1‐, 20‐ and 50‐year recurrence intervals. The duration of the connection of individual wetlands varied from 1 to 12 days, depending on flood magnitude and location in the floodplain, with some wetlands only connected during large floods. All of the wetlands studied were connected to the Tully River for shorter periods than they were to the Murray River because of the higher bank heights and levees on the Tully River and wetland proximity to the Murray River. Other than hydrology, land relief, riverbank elevation and levee banks along the river were found key factors controlling the degree of connectivity. These variations in wetland connectivity could have important implications for aquatic biota that move between rivers and off‐stream habitats during floods. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.