A three-dimensional wind and behaviorally driven population dynamics model for Karenia brevis

The time-dependent three-dimensional distribution of a population of Karenia brevis is explored through the use of an Eulerian model. The model combines a previously developed physiologically based behavioral model of these dinoflagellates with a simple model for a three-dimensional wind driven flow field over a variable-depth continental shelf. The behavioral model is simplified from that used in previous applications and sigma coordinates are utilized in the model. Model results indicate that even for the relatively weak wind driven currents used in our simulation a non-quantized population can develop into two spatially distinct quantized populations in a period as short as 1 day where, for present purposes, a quantized population is one in which all cells are at the same stage of the cell cycle.     

Patterns of shrub species richness and abundance in relation to environmental factors on the Alxa Plateau: Prerequisites for conserving shrub diversity in extreme arid desert regions

Shrub species are considered the dominant plants in arid desert ecosystems, unlike in semiarid steppe zones or in grassland ecosystems. On the Alxa Plateau, northern China, sparse vegetation with cover ranging from 15% to 30% is characterized mainly by multifarious shrubs because herbaceous species are strongly restricted by the extreme drought climate, wind erosion, overgrazing and sand burial. Patterns in shrub species richness and species abundance in relation to environmental conditions were examined by DCA (detrended correspondence analysis) and interpreted by a biplot. The relationships between species diversity and environmental factors were examined using regression analyses. Our results show that the distributions of the shrub species in response to environmental conditions can be grouped into four ecological types, corresponding with the biological traits of the shrubs and their responses to the gradients of soil texture and soil water content. Patterns in species richness and species abundance were mainly determined by the deeper soil water content, instead of the soil texture as hypothesized by numerous studies in semiarid grasslands. With exception of the deeper soil water content, soil organic matter and total N content were positively correlated with species abundance, while pH was negatively correlated with it. These findings imply that it is vital for current shrub diversity conservation to reduce agricultural water use in the middle reaches of the Heihe River, which supplies water for the lower reaches in the western parts of the plateau, and to reduce the amount of groundwater exploitation and urban and oasis water use, to increase the water supply from Helan Mountain to the eastern desert of the Alxa Plateau. Supported by National Key Technology R & D Program (Grant Nos. 2007BAD46B03, 2006BAD26B0201) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (Gant No. 40825001)     

A probabilistic model for sediment entrainment:The role of bed irregularity

A generalized probabilistic model is developed in this study to predict sediment entrainment under the incipient motion, rolling, and pickup modes. A novelty of the proposed model is that it incorporates in its formulation the probability density function of the bed shear stress, instead of the near-bed velocity fluctuations, to account for the effects of both flow turbulence and bed surface irregularity on sediment entrainment. The proposed model incorporates in its formulation the collective effects of three para-meters describing bed surface irregularity, namely the relative roughness, the volumetric fraction and relative position of sediment particles within the active layer. Another key feature of the model is that it provides a criterion for estimating the lift and drag coefficients jointly based on the recognition that lift and drag forces acting on sediment particles are interdependent and vary with particle protrusion and packing density. The model was validated using laboratory data of both fine and coarse sediment and was compared with previously published models. The study results show that all the examined models perform adequately for the fine sediment data, where the sediment particles have more uniform gra-dation and relative roughness is not a factor. The proposed model was particularly suited for the coarse sediment data, where the increased bed irregularity was captured by the new parameters introduced in the model formulation. As a result, the proposed model yielded smaller prediction errors and physically acceptable values for the lift coefficient compared to the other models in case of the coarse sediment data.     

A numerical model for the dynamics of pyroclastic flows at Galeras Volcano,Colombia

This paper presents a two-dimensional model for dilute pyroclastic flow dynamics that uses the compressible Navier–Stokes equation coupled with the Diffusion–Convection equation to take into account sedimentation. The model is applied to one of the slopes of Galeras Volcano to show: (1) the temperature evolution with the time; (2) dynamic pressure change; and (3) particle concentration along the computer domain from the eruption to the impact with a topographic barrier located more than 16 km from the source. Two initial solid volumetric fractions are modeled. For both cases, some of the structures located more distant than 10 km could survive, but in all cases the flow remains deadly. This paper shows that a dynamical model of pyroclastic flows can be implemented using personal computers.     

A shrub bending model to calculate the albedo of shrub‐tundra

At high latitudes, the albedo and energy budget of shrub‐tundra landscapes is determined by the relationship between the fractional snow cover and the fraction of vegetation protruding above the snowpack. The exposed vegetation fraction is affected by the bending and/or burial of shrubs in winter and their spring‐up during melt. Little is known about the meteorological conditions and snowpack and shrub properties required to cause bending, and few quantitative measurements of bending processes exist. Here, a model combining the few, mostly qualitative, observations available with a biomechanical model representing branches as cantilevers is proposed to provide a first approximation of bending mechanisms. The exposed vegetation fraction is then calculated using structural parameters of shrubs measured at two sites in Canada: the Granger Basin in the Yukon Territory and Trail Valley Creek in the Northwest Territories. The exposed vegetation fraction is in turn used to calculate albedo, which is evaluated against measurements at the two sites. The model considerably improves modelled albedo compared to a model which only buries but does not bend shrubs at TVC, where shrubs become completely buried. However, the model overestimates albedo at GB where only a few shrubs get buried. The bending model is then used to calculate a compression factor for use in a simple parameterization of the exposed vegetation fraction proposed by previous investigators. The parameterization, which is simpler and computationally less expensive than the full model, is evaluated and found to perform well. Despite the need for further developments, the model provides a first approximation of bending processes and contributes to the identification of measurements that are needed in order to improve the model and our understanding of the bending of shrubs. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A three-dimensional model for the simulation of shelf sea dynamics

Ocean Dynamics - A three-dimensional baroclinic primitive equation model based upon a semi-implicit numerical scheme is developed. The scheme is essentially independent of the stringent stability...     

A computationally efficient method for uncertainty analysis of SWAT model simulations

The physically based distributed hydrological models are ideal for hydrological simulations; however most of such models do not use the basic equations pertaining to mass, energy and momentum conservation, to represent the physics of the process. This is plausibly due to the lack of complete understanding of the hydrological process. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) is one such widely accepted semi-distributed, conceptual hydrological model used for water resources planning. However, the over-parameterization, difficulty in its calibration process and the uncertainty associated with predictions make its applications skeptical. This study considers assessing the predictive uncertainty associated with distributed hydrological models. The existing methods for uncertainty estimation demand high computational time and therefore make them challenging to apply on complex hydrological models. The proposed approach employs the concepts of generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) in an iterative procedure by starting with an assumed prior probability distribution of parameters, and by using mutual information (MI) index for sampling the behavioral parameter set. The distributions are conditioned on the observed information through successive cycles of simulations. During each cycle of simulation, MI is used in conjunction with Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure to sample the parameter sets so as to increase the number of behavioral sets, which in turn helps reduce the number of cycles/simulations for the analysis. The method is demonstrated through a case study of SWAT model in Illinois River basin in the USA. A comparison of the proposed method with GLUE indicates that the computational requirement of uncertainty analysis is considerably reduced in the proposed approach. It is also noted that the model prediction band, derived using the proposed method, is more effective compared to that derived using the other methods considered in this study.     

A two degree of freedom model for the dynamics of offshore structures

As a means towards an understanding of the structural dynamics of deepwater gravity platforms, the dynamic response of a linear two degree of freedom spring-mass-damper system is studied herein. The mathematical model represents dynamic interaction between structure and foundation. Particular attention is paid to the influence of wave force distribution. Transfer functions are obtained for the response to sinusoidal waves, and resonant magnification factors are plotted for a range of structural and loading parameters. It is concluded that the response even of this simple idealization is far from straightforward.     

A methodology for the probabilistic assessment of behaviour factors

Given the importance that traditional force-based seismic design still currently exhibits, studies addressing issues related to the definition of the behaviour factor values are considered to be of most interest. A probabilistic methodology is proposed for the calibration of the q-factor relating its value with two fundamental parameters, the displacement ductility capacity measured at a relevant location of the structure and the failure probability P _f . The general foundation of this procedure is based on the probabilistic quantification of the seismic action and, by applying a transformation procedure, of the structural seismic demand in terms of displacement ductility. By recalling well established structural reliability procedures and by making use of nonlinear analysis methods, both static and dynamic, a general probabilistic framework, which is able to relate the ductility capacity, the failure probability P _f and the behaviour factor, is defined. In order to illustrate some of the potentialities of the methodology, an application example is presented, addressing the q-factor assessment for a set of regular and irregular reinforced concrete frame structures, enforcing a given P _f and two different ductility levels.     

A probabilistic model for the evaluation of strong column-weak beam provision for flexible-base buildings subjected to pulse-like ground motions

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - The main objective of this study is to employ a probabilistic approach to determine the appropriate value of the strong column-weak beam ratio (SCWBR) for three...     

地壳中流体动力学模型研究

较全面介绍了近年国内外地壳地下流体动力学研究的最新成果。综合分析前人研究成果并将其系统化为地完尺度上地下流体动力学系统的概念模型和数学模型。模型根据影响地下流体动力特性的主要因素和介质渗透特征,把地壳渗流场分为深度小于6km的饯部带、6～17km的过渡带和大于17km的深部带。数学处理上把驱动流体运动的各种地质作用归一化为“地质力”,以地下流体运动方程中的源汇项表示。分析了不同地质环境各种地质作用对地下流体系统的作用特征。对地壳中普遍存在的异常孔隙压力现象,从流体动力学的角度进行了解释,并认为周期性地震活动是形成异常高孔隙压力的主导因素。     

The geomorphic dynamics and environmental history of an upper deltaic floodplain tract in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta,California, USA

A multi‐proxy approach was used to examine the geomorphic dynamics and environmental history of an upper deltaic ?oodplain tract in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California. Three long cores were collected from the McCormack–Williamson Tract (MWT) and these cores were analyzed for bulk density, loss‐on‐ignition, ?ne (clay and silt) content, Al concentration, magnetic susceptibility, pollen, and charcoal. Radiocarbon dates obtained for the cores were converted into calendar years and an age–depth model was constructed. Long‐term vertical accretion and sedimentation rates were estimated from the age–depth model. Cross‐core relations show that coarse sediment generally accumulates more rapidly and has greater magnetic susceptibility compared to ?ne sediment. Percentage ?ne and LOI data show a strong linear relationship that indicates ?ooding is the primary mechanism for the deposition of particular organic matter on the ?oodplain and that landscape wash load has contributed a highly consistent fraction of persistent organic matter averaging 5·5 per cent to the site. Down‐core grain size pro?les show two hydrological domains in the cores, namely millennial ?ne–coarse ?uctuations superimposed on general up‐core ?ning. Coarse sediment is viewed as channel or near‐channel overbank deposits, whereas ?ne deposits are considered to be distal overbank ?ood deposits. The coarse–?ne ?uctuations are indicative of changing depositional settings as channels migrated laterally across MWT, whereas the upward ?ning trend re?ects a combination of self‐limiting overbank deposition as ?oodplain elevation increased and decreasing competence as sea‐level rise reduced ?ood‐pulse energy slopes. MWT has been cross‐cut and incised numerous times in the past, only to have the channels abandoned and subsequently ?lled by ?ne sediment. The channels around MWT attained their modern con?guration about 4000 years ago. MWT likely came under tidal in?uence at about 2500 cal BP. Wetlands have recently developed on MWT, but they are inorganic sediment dominated. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A probabilistic approach for the prediction of seismic resilience of bridges

This paper proposes a probabilistic approach for the pre‐event assessment of seismic resilience of bridges, including uncertainties associated with expected damage, restoration process, and rebuilding/rehabilitation costs. A fragility analysis performs the probabilistic evaluation of the level of damage (none, slight, moderate, extensive, and complete) induced on bridges by a seismic event. Then, a probabilistic six‐parameter sinusoidal‐based function describes the bridge functionality over time. Depending on the level of regional seismic hazard, the level of performance that decision makers plan to achieve, the allowable economic impact, and the available budget for post‐event rehabilitation activities, a wide spectrum of scenarios are provided. Possible restoration strategies accounting for the desired level of resilience and direct and indirect costs are investigated by performing a Monte Carlo simulation based on Latin hypercube sampling. Sensitivity analyses show how the recovery parameters affect the resilience assessment and seismic impact. Finally, the proposed approach is applied to an existing highway bridge located along a segment of I‐15, between the cities of Corona and Murrieta, in California. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A 3-d model of quaternary terrace development,simulations of terrace stratigraphy and valley asymmetry: A case study for the allier terraces (limagne,France)

The combined effects of climate and tectonism on general terrace stratigraphy and valley asymmetry during the last half million years in the Allier system (France) are simulated by a 3-D conceptual model (LIMTER). This model allows the formulation and evaluation of long term terrace formation scenarios for the Allier system. Simulation results suggest that terrace stratigraphy in the study area is mainly the result of internal dynamics and climatic change. Local tectonism contributed to the development of unpaired terraces while the general regional uplift played a dominant role in determining terrace formation and preservation in general.     

A probabilistic/deterministic approach for the prediction of the sediment transport rate

In this paper we present a probabilistic/deterministic model for the evaluation of the sediment transport rate in a stream. Starting from Einstein’s theory, the approach was obtained by trying to overcome some of the intrinsic limitations. The approach is based on two distinct probability functions, one relevant to the detachment of grains and the second relevant to the length of particle jumps. The sediment transport rate is obtained by integrating the distribution of the ranges of the particle jumps multiplied by the average particle velocity. The relationship for the average ranges of particle jumps is an opportune combination of the Einstein and Yalin expressions. The final formulation was calibrated by means of a large number of experimental data and also by comparison with some of the most widely-used empirical formulas. The results show a better agreement between theory and experiments than do the other theories analyzed.     

A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States

This simulation research was conducted in order to develop a large-fire risk assessment system for the contiguous land area of the United States. The modeling system was applied to each of 134 Fire Planning Units (FPUs) to estimate burn probabilities and fire size distributions. To obtain stable estimates of these quantities, fire ignition and growth was simulated for 10,000 to 50,000 “years” of artificial weather. The fire growth simulations, when run repeatedly with different weather and ignition locations, produce burn probabilities and fire behavior distributions at each landscape location (e.g., number of times a “cell” burns at a given intensity divided by the total years). The artificial weather was generated for each land unit using (1) a fire danger rating index known as the Energy Release Component (ERC) which is a proxy for fuel moisture contents, (2) a time-series analysis of ERC to represent daily and seasonal variability, and (3) distributions of wind speed and direction from weather records. Large fire occurrence was stochastically modeled based on historical relationships to ERC. The simulations also required spatial data on fuel structure and topography which were acquired from the LANDFIRE project (). Fire suppression effects were represented by a statistical model that yields a probability of fire containment based on independent predictors of fire growth rates and fuel type. The simulated burn probabilities were comparable to observed patterns across the U.S. over the range of four orders of magnitude, generally falling within a factor of 3 or 4 of historical estimates. Close agreement between simulated and historical fire size distributions suggest that fire sizes are determined by the joint distributions of spatial opportunities for fire growth (dependent on fuels and ignition location) and the temporal opportunities produced by conducive weather sequences. The research demonstrates a practical approach to using fire simulations at very broad scales for purposes of operational planning and perhaps ecological research.     

Coupling the WRF model with a temperature index model based on remote sensing for snowmelt simulations in a river basin in the Altay Mountains,north‐west China

Snowmelt water is an important freshwater resource in the Altay Mountains in north‐west China; however, warming climate and rapid spring snowmelt can cause floods that endanger both public and personal property and safety. This study simulates snowmelt in the Kayiertesi River catchment using a temperature index model based on remote sensing coupled with high‐resolution meteorological data obtained from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis fields that were downscaled using the Weather Research Forecasting model and then bias corrected using a statistical downscaled model. Validation of the forcing data revealed that the high‐resolution meteorological fields derived from the downscaled NCEP reanalysis were reliable for driving the snowmelt model. Parameters of the temperature index model based on remote sensing were calibrated for spring 2014, and model performance was validated using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer snow cover and snow observations from spring 2012. The results show that the temperature index model based on remote sensing performed well, with a simulation mean relative error of 6.7% and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.98 in spring 2012 in the river of Altay Mountains. Based on the reliable distributed snow water equivalent simulation, daily snowmelt run‐off was calculated for spring 2012 in the basin. In the study catchment, spring snowmelt run‐off accounts for 72% of spring run‐off and 21% of annual run‐off. Snowmelt is the main source of run‐off for the catchment and should be managed and utilized effectively. The results provide a basis for snowmelt run‐off predictions, so as to prevent snowmelt‐induced floods, and also provide a generalizable approach that can be applied to other remote locations where high‐density, long‐term observational data are lacking. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Restoring earth surface processes through landform design. A 13‐year monitoring of a geomorphic reclamation model for quarries on slopes

The application of geomorphic principles to land reclamation after surface mining has been reported in the literature since the mid‐1990s, mostly from Australia, Canada and the USA. This paper discusses the reclamation problems of contour mining and quarries on slopes, where steep gradients are prone to both mass movement and water erosion. To address these problems simultaneously, a geomorphic model for reclaiming surface mined slopes is described. Called the ‘highwall–trench–concave slope’ model, it was first applied in the 1995 reclamation of a quarry on a slope (La Revilla) in Central Spain. The geomorphic model does not reproduce the original topography, but has two very different sectors and objectives: (i) the highwall–trench sector allows the former quarry face to evolve naturally by erosion, accommodating fallen debris by means of a trench constructed at the toe of the highwall; (ii) the concave‐slope base sector, mimicking the landforms of the surrounding undisturbed landscape, promotes soil formation and the establishment of self‐sustaining, functional ecosystems in the area protected from sedimentation by the trench. The model improves upon simple topographic reconstruction, because it rebuilds the surficial geology architecture and facilitates re‐establishment of equilibrium slopes through the management and control of geomorphic processes. Thirteen years of monitoring of the geomorphic and edaphic evolution of La Revilla reclaimed quarry confirms that the area is functioning as intended: the highwall is backwasting and material is accumulating at the trench, permitting the recovery of soils and vegetation on the concave slope. However, the trench is filling faster than planned, which may lead to run‐off and sedimentation on the concave slope once the trench is full. The lesson learned for other scenarios is that the model works well in a two‐dimensional scheme, but requires a three‐dimensional drainage management, breaking the reclaimed area into several watersheds with stream channels. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.