Impact assessment of land cover changes on the runoff changes on the extreme flood events in the Kelantan River basin

In the current years, changing the land cover/land use had serious hydrological impacts affecting the flood events in the Kelantan River basin. The flood events at the east coast of the peninsular Malaysia got highly affected in the recent decades due to several factors like urbanisation, rapid changes in the utilisation of land and lack of meteorological (i.e. change in climate) and developmental monitoring and planning. The Kelantan River basin has been highly influenced due to a rapid change in land use during 1984 to 2013, which occurred in the form of transformation of agricultural area and deforestation (logging activities). In order to evaluate the influence of the modifications in land cover on the flood events, two hydrological regional models of rainfall-induced runoff event, the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC)-Hydrologic Modeling System (HMS) model and improved transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional model (Improved TRIGRS), were employed in this study. The responses of land cover changes on the peak flow and runoff volume were investigated using 10 days of hourly rainfall events from 20 December to the end of December 2014 at the study area. The usage of two hydrological models defined that the changes in land use/land cover caused momentous changes in hydrological response towards water flow. The outcomes also revealed that the increase of severe water flow at the study area is a function of urbanisation and deforestation, particularly in the conversion of the forest area to the less canopy coverage, for example, oil palm, mixed agriculture and rubber. The monsoon season floods and runoff escalate in the cleared land or low-density vegetation area, while the normal flow gets the contribution from interflow generated from secondary jungle and forested areas.     

Agriculture versus tourism in rural areas of the Polish Carpathians

The Polish Carpathians is one of the regions with the best rural demographic and economic situation in Poland, as indicated by the growth of population, the very advantageous sex and age structure, the low unemployment rate and good housing standards. However, the situation in agriculture is complicated due to the unfavourable natural conditions of the mountainous terrain, the fragmentation of holdings and the low level of efficiency. On the other hand, tourism is a positive factor in the socio-economic transformation of the Carpathian countryside. Tourism was a significant activity even before the Second World War when lodgings were sought in private houses in many villages of the Sub-Tatra, Podhale Basin and the Silesian and Sacz Beskides. The villages currently active as tourist centres show the most dynamic development and the highest level of the socio-economic infrastructure.     

Tectonics of the western part of the Polish Outer Carpathians

The western part of the Polish Outer Carpathians is built up from the thrust, imbricated Upper Jurassic-Neogene flysch deposits. The following Outer Carpathian nappes have been distinguished: Magura Nappe, Fore-Magura group of nappes, Silesian, Subsilesian and Skole nappes. Interpretation of seismic and magnetotelluric survey from the region South of Wadowice, allows observation of relationship between basement and flysch nappes in the Outer Carpathians. It also allows identification of dislocation cutting both flysch nappes and their basement. All the Outer Carpathian nappes are thrust over the southern part of the North European Platform. The platform basement is composed of older Precambrian metamorphic rocks belonging to the Bruno-Vistulicum terrane. Sedimentary cover consists of Paleozoic, Mesozoic and Neogene sequences. The characteristic features of this boundary are horsts and troughs of general direction NW-SE, turning W-E. Faults cutting only the consolidated basement and the Paleozoic cover were formed during the Hercynian Orogeny in the Carboniferous and the Early Permian. Most of the older normal faults were covered by allochtonous flysch nappes forming thus the blind faults. During the last stage of the geodynamic development the Carpathians thrust sheets moved towards their present position. Displacement of the Carpathians northwards is related to development of dextral strike-slip faults of N—S direction. The orientation of this strike-slip fault zones zone more or less coincides with the surface position of the major faults perpendicular to the strike of the Outer Carpathian thrustsheets. The huge fault cuts formations from the Paleozoic basement through the flysch allochton between the boreholes in Sucha Beskidzka area. The displacement of nappes of the Carpathian overthrust and diapiric extrusion of plastic formations of the lower flysch units occurred along this fault.     

Diagenetic and other highly mineralized waters in the Polish Carpathians

Highly mineralized waters of different chemical types and origin occur in the flysch formations and their bedrocks in the western part of the Polish Carpathians. The marine sedimentation water of the flysch formations is not preserved, as the most mineralized and the heaviest isotopic values of flysch waters are characterized by δ¹⁸O and δ²H values in the ranges of 5–7‰ and −(20–30)‰, respectively. Their origin is related to the dehydration of clay minerals during burial diagenesis, with molecules of marine water completely removed by molecules of released bound water. They are relatively enriched in Na⁺ in respect to the marine water, supposedly due to the release of Na⁺ during the illitization of smectites and preferable incorporation of other cations from the primary brine into newly formed minerals. In some parts of younger formations, i.e. in the Badenian sediments, brines occur with isotopic composition close to SMOW and Cl⁻ contents greatly exceeding the typical marine value of about 19.6 g/L, supposedly due to ultrafiltration. Most probably, the marine water of the flysch formations was similarly enriched chemically in its initial burial stages. Final Cl⁻ contents in diagenetic waters depend on different Cl⁻ contents in the primary brines and on relationships between diagenetic and further ultrafiltration processes. In some areas, diagenetic waters migrate to the surface along fault zones and mix with young local meteoric waters becoming diluted, with the isotope composition scattering along typical mixing lines. In areas with independent CO₂ flow from great depths, they form chloride CO₂-rich waters. Common CO₂-rich waters are formed in areas without near-surface occurrences of diagenetic waters. They change from the HCO₃–Ca type for modern waters to HCO₃–Mg–Ca, HCO₃–Na–Ca and other types with elevated TDS, Mg²⁺ and/or Na⁻ contents for old waters reaching even those of glacial age. Bedrocks of the flysch are represented by Mesozoic and Paleozoic mudstones, sandstones and carbonates, and in some areas by Badenian sediments. Brines of the Mesozoic and Paleozoic bedrocks are usually significantly enriched in Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ in comparison with the Badenian brines. By analogy to the deepest brines in the adjacent Upper Silesian Coal Basin, they are supposed to originate from paleometeoric waters of a hot climate.     

Use of documentary sources on past flood events for flood risk management and land planning

The knowledge of past catastrophic events can improve flood risk mitigation policy, with a better awareness against risk. As such historical information is usually available in Europe for the past five centuries, historians are able to understand how past society dealt with flood risk, and hydrologists can include information on past floods into an adapted probabilistic framework. In France, Flood Risk Mitigation Maps are based either on the largest historical known flood event or on the 100-year flood event if it is greater. Two actions can be suggested in terms of promoting the use of historical information for flood risk management: (1) the development of a regional flood data base, with both historical and current data, in order to get a good feedback on recent events and to improve the flood risk education and awareness; (2) the commitment to keep a persistent/perennial management of a reference network of hydrometeorological observations for climate change studies.     

不同洪水重现期下橡胶坝调控对洪水风险的影响

现有针对河湖水系连通伴生风险分析的方法或不具备物理过程模拟,或缺乏对风险随机性的探讨。以沂沭河水系连通工程为例,在水力学模型的基础上,考虑连通河网不同河流洪峰相关性,创建随机水情条件下河湖水系连通伴生风险分析模型。通过1 200组水情条件,对沂沭河水系上游进行洪水过程模拟,针对橡胶坝可能造成的洪峰叠加问题,提出不同洪水重现期下橡胶坝运行调度风险管控建议。结果表明:① 50年一遇与100年一遇洪水重现期条件下,均呈现出橡胶坝坝址处水位风险极高（概率P>0.8）,流速风险较低（P < 0.3）的规律,且每当橡胶坝高度升高25%的设计坝高时,沂河与沭河坝前水位风险皆提高约70%,沭河坝址处流速风险降低约50%。②若在汛前塌坝下泄蓄水,人为洪峰的叠加会使沭河中下游河段产生极高风险。③通过划分水位、流速综合洪水风险安全域,洪水重现期50年一遇时,建议沂沭河橡胶坝在汛前调节至低于50%设计坝高,且控制沭河水深和流速分别在12 m和2.23 m/s以内,可以降低水位和流速风险至低风险（P < 0.4）;洪水重现期100年一遇时,需将橡胶坝调至25%设计坝高以下,或者汛前尽早缓慢塌坝下泄蓄水,才能有效降低沂沭河水系防洪压力。     

土地利用和覆被变化对岩溶区土壤CO2浓度的影响

通过选择3个具有不同地质背景、气候条件等环境特征的山西汾阳马跑-郭庄岩溶泉域、湖南湘西大龙洞地下河流域、广西桂江流域,对流域内具有代表性的不同土地利用方式和覆被类型下垫面土壤20~50cm深处CO2浓度进行检测。结果显示,土地利用方式和覆被变化对3个流域岩溶土壤中20cm、30cm、40cm和50cm深处CO2浓度具有明显的影响作用:湖南湘西大龙洞地下河流域多数样地土壤CO2表现为随土层的加深先增加后降低的双向梯度;山西马跑-郭庄泉域玉米地的土壤CO2浓度比种植马铃薯的高,且随着覆被条件由草地→灌丛→林地的改善,土壤的扰动性变小,CO2浓度差趋于减少,变幅趋于稳定。各个流域相同覆被类型,群落结构和优势种变化越小,土壤CO2浓度变幅越小。      

Spatio-temporal dynamics in the flood exposure due to land use changes in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria)

Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions of the world in the next decades with rising flood losses as a consequence. First and foremost, it can be attributed to the expansion of settlement and industrial areas into flood plains and the resulting accumulation of assets. For a future-oriented and a more robust flood risk management, it is therefore of importance not only to estimate potential impacts of climate change on the flood hazard, but also to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of flood exposure due to land use changes. In this study, carried out in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria), various land use scenarios until 2030 were developed by means of a spatially explicit land use model, national spatial planning scenarios and current spatial policies. The combination of the simulated land use patterns with different inundation scenarios enabled us to derive statements about possible future changes in flood-exposed built-up areas. The results indicate that the potential assets at risk depend very much on the selected socioeconomic scenario. The important conditions affecting the potential assets at risk that differ between the scenarios are the demand for new built-up areas as well as on the types of conversions allowed to provide the necessary areas at certain locations. The range of potential changes in flood-exposed residential areas varies from no further change in the most moderate scenario ‘Overall Risk’ to 119 % increase in the most extreme scenario ‘Overall Growth’ (under current spatial policy) and 159 % increase when disregarding current building restrictions.     

Population changes of urban land birds in the three years following the hurricane Katrina flood

There are few studies of wildlife population dynamics in the wake of natural disasters, and little is known about “normal” rates and trajectories of their recovery. I document the population trajectories of ten urban resident land bird species in New Orleans, USA, over a 30 km network of survey transects in the 3.4 years following the Hurricane Katrina flood of September 2005 and compare them to transects surveyed before the storm in 1994–2000. The avian community in January 2009 differed from that before the storm, chiefly in the increased dominance of European Starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) and the near disappearance of the formerly common Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis), Common Grackle (Quiscalis quiscula), and Bronzed Cowbird (Molothrus aeneus; at least through August 2007). In total, resident populations after 3.4 years were at less than half the levels recorded before the storm, having increased only weakly from their post-storm lows. Individual species varied widely in their population changes over the 3 years that followed their initial declines, some declining farther and others increasing by more than threefold. Starlings regained the highest proportion of their pre-storm numbers. The first and probably the second nesting seasons after the storm both saw resident bird populations increase substantially, but then decline again markedly by mid-winter.     

Albian and Cenomanian palaeobathymetry in the Pieniny Klippen Belt Basin, Polish Carpathians

During the Albian and Cenomanian, the Pieniny Klippen Belt Basin, a part of the Carpathian geosynclinal domain, showed a clear differentiation into an axial deepest part represented by the Pieniny and Branisko successions and two marginal zones, a southern (Nizna and Haligovce successions, in Slovakia) and a northern zone (in Poland and Slovakia) represented by the Niedzica, Czertezik and Czorsztyn successions, becoming progressively more shallow towards the north. Five palaeobathymetric foraminiferal associations have been distinguished in the axial and northern marginal zone sediments of the Klippen Basin, corresponding to: ‘A’ shelf and upper slope: relatively large proportion of nodosariids and miliolids (Czorsztyn succession); ‘B1’ middle part of slope; oligotaxic planktonic assemblage dominant (Niedzica through Branisko successions and northern part of the Pieniny succession); ‘B2’ middle part of slope: larger proportion of agglutinated foraminifers, association characteristic of sediments influenced by turbidites (submarine flyschoid channels in the Branisko succession); ‘Cl’ middle and lower parts of slope: scarce microfauna, Hedbergella and textularids dominant (Pieniny succession, middle part); ‘C2’ slope/abyssal plain transition, close to foraminiferal lysocline (probably about 3500m below sea level): scarce specimens corroded and slightly dissolved (Pieniny succession, southern part).     

Impact of land use and land cover changes on landscape structure in the dry lands of Southern Africa: a case of the Zambezi Region,Namibia

GeoJournal - The study evaluated patterns of land use and land cover (LULC) change in the Zambezi Region, Namibia between 1984 and 2010 using geospatial tools. Spatio-temporal dynamics of LULC...     

Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India

The occurrence of exceptionally heavy rainfall events and associated flash floods in many areas during recent years motivate us to study long-term changes in extreme rainfall over India. The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts of central and north India while they are increasing in peninsular, east and north east India. The study tries to bring out some of the interesting findings which are very useful for hydrological planning and disaster managements. Extreme rainfall and flood risk are increasing significantly in the country except some parts of central India.     

The impact of land use and land cover changes on soil erosion in western Iran

Natural Hazards - Analysis of long-term land use and land cover (LULC) changes requires up-to-date remotely sensed data to assess their effects on erosion. This is a particularly important...     

气候与土地利用变化对涟水流域径流的影响

以涟水流域为研究对象,选用1990年、2000年、2010年三期土地利用数据资料,将1985-2014年30 a气象条件相应划分为1985-1994年、1995-2004年、2005-2014年三段气象背景时期,并组合细分为7种模拟情景,应用SWAT分布式水文模型模拟不同情景下的径流量,探讨气候和土地利用变化对流域径流的影响。利用PSO粒子群优化算法,以克林效率系数KGE为目标函数,通过湘乡站实测径流数据校准模型参数。运用p-factor、r-factor评价模拟的不确定性,采用相关系数R²、纳什效率系数NS和偏差百分比PBIAS评价模型模拟效果,评价结果表明不同土地利用情景下,校准期和验证期的模拟效果均达到可信程度,模拟的不确定性较小。组合情景间模拟分析结果表明,1985-2014年30 a间,气候变化使涟水流域径流不断减少,土地利用变化使径流有所增加,年径流深总体呈现下降趋势。气候变化对涟水流域径流变化的影响贡献率在逐渐上升,从71.4%上升到了86.3%。土地利用变化对径流变化的影响贡献率则相应下降,从28.6%降低至13.7%。因此,在气候变化背景下,科学管理流域水资源还需要充分考虑流域土地资源空间配置结构和利用方式。     

Flow characteristics of Metresa: an Oligocene seismoturbidite in the Dukla Unit, Polish Carpathians

Metresa is a thick, distinctive turburdite within the Menilite Shales in the Carpathians of south-east Poland. It was deposited by a SE-flowing turbidity current derived from the Silesian cordillera and can be traced for 55 km downcurrent; it has a width of at least 15 km. The current contained roughly 3 km³ of sediment and conforms to the definition of a seismoturbidite. Grain-size analyses of samples from the nine localities where Metresa is exposed indicate average velocities decreasing from 2 m s^?1 to less than 1 m s^?1 over the 55 km. Massive divisions are poorly developed; instead, the turbidite, although graded, tends to be laminated throughout. Flat lamination predominates with intercalated cross-lamination and erosion structures at various levels. Small-scale cross-lamination, presumably associated with ripples, occurs at some upper levels. An exceptional feature is a large-scale wave-like structure somewhat resembling hummocky cross-stratification. The structures are not consistent with the inferred velocities. It is suggested that the stability fields relating structures to stream power (herein called the ‘Allen fields’) are displaced in respect to deposition from waning turbidity currents.     

Calcite from the Quaternary spring waters at Tylicz, Krynica, Polish Carpathians

At Tylicz, near Krynica Spa (Polish Carpathians), spelean deposits fill fissures and caverns in Eocene flysch rocks. They occur as: (1) clastic cave sediments transformed into hard crusts due to cementation by finely crystalline low-Mg calcite, (2) drusy calcite that covers crust surfaces and fills voids in the crust and (3) colloform calcite. Two varieties of drusy calcite are distinguished: acicular and columnar. The acicular calcite is built up of crystallites forming spherulitic fans or cones. In places it is syntaxially covered with colloform calcite. The drusy calcite is low-Mg ferroan calcite with non-ferroan subzones, whereas the colloform calcite is a low-Mg non-ferroan variety. The columnar calcite crystals form fan-like bundles. Cross-sections cut perpendicular to the c-axes of columnar crystals are equilateral triangular in shape, although some have slightly curved edges. The columnar crystals have steep rhombic terminations and most have curved triangular faces, i.e. gothic-arch calcite. Saddle crystals have also been observed. The columnar crystals are composed of radially orientated crystallites whose long dimension is parallel to the c-axis. The curved crystal faces of such polycrystals are interpreted as a result of differential growth rates of the crystallites. The spelean calcites precipitated from CO₂-saturated water. The high rate of CaCO₃ precipitation is thought to be responsible for the formation of radial structures. Finely crystalline calcite formed within pore spaces of clastic sediments close to the water-air interface, drusy calcite crystallized beneath the water-air interface, and colloform calcite precipitated from thin films of water.     

Effects of land use change on flood characteristics in mountainous area of Daqinghe watershed, China

Land use has changed in the Daqinghe watershed during 1956–2005, and it has influenced the flood peak and volume. In order to reveal the effects of land use change on flood characteristics in Daqinghe watershed, we selected 2 sub-watersheds and used remote-sensed land use data of 1980 and 1996 to analyze changes in land use and also selected several combinations of similar rainfall events and the corresponding flood events to show how changes in land use affect floods. The forest and urban area increased and other types decreased, and flood peaks and volumes tended to decrease under similar rainfall events. To quantify the extent of change in land use affecting floods, a hydrological model incorporating the land use was established. The model combines infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff generation mechanism in each type of land use, and the simulation results agreed well with the measured flood processes in the two selected watersheds. Several floods of different return intervals were selected to be modeled under the 1980 and 1996 land use conditions. The results show that both flood peak and volume decreased under the 1996 land use condition in comparison with the 1980 land use condition in the two watersheds. Most of the flood peaks decreased <5 %, but the volume decreased to a greater extent. This result can be helpful in modifying design flood.     

Effect of uncertainty in land use, damage models and inundation depth on flood damage estimates

With the recent transition to a more risk-based approach in flood management, flood risk models—being a key component in flood risk management—are becoming increasingly important. Such models combine information from four components: (1) the flood hazard (mostly inundation depth), (2) the exposure (e.g. land use), (3) the value of elements at risk and (4) the susceptibility of the elements at risk to hydrologic conditions (e.g. depth–damage curves). All these components contain, however, a certain degree of uncertainty which propagates through the calculation and accumulates in the final damage estimate. In this study, an effort has been made to assess the influence of uncertainty in these four components on the final damage estimate. Different land-use data sets and damage models have been used to represent the uncertainties in the exposure, value and susceptibility components. For the flood hazard component, inundation depth has been varied systematically to estimate the sensitivity of flood damage estimations to this component. The results indicate that, assuming the uncertainty in inundation depth is about 25 cm (about 15% of the mean inundation depth), the total uncertainty surrounding the final damage estimate in the case study area can amount to a factor 5–6. The value of elements at risk and depth–damage curves are the most important sources of uncertainty in flood damage estimates and can both introduce about a factor 2 of uncertainty in the final damage estimates. Very large uncertainties in inundation depth would be necessary to have a similar effect on the uncertainty of the final damage estimate, which seem highly unrealistic. Hence, in order to reduce the uncertainties surrounding potential flood damage estimates, these components deserve prioritisation in future flood damage research. While absolute estimates of flood damage exhibit considerable uncertainty (the above-mentioned factor 5–6), estimates for proportional changes in flood damages (defined as the change in flood damages as a percentage of a base situation) are much more robust.     

Land use change increases flood hazard: a multi-modelling approach to assess change in flood characteristics driven by socio-economic land use change scenarios

Natural Hazards - We analysed in the work how change in land use/land cover influences on flood characteristics (frequency and magnitude) using a model inter-comparison approach, statistical...     

Stages in the Magura Basin: a case study of the Polish sector (Western Carpathians)

The Magura Basin domain developed in its initial stage as a Jurassic-Early Cretaceous rifted passive margin that faced the eastern parts of the oceanic Alpine Tethys. In the pre- and syn-orogenic evolution of the Magura Basin the following prominent periods can be distinguished: Middle Jurassic-Early Cretaceous syn-rift opening of basins (1) followed by Early Cretaceous post-rift thermal subsidence (2), latest Cretaceous–Paleocene syn-collisional inversion (3), Late Paleocene to Middle Eocene flexural subsidence (4) and Late Eocene - Early Miocene synorogenic closing of the basin (5). The driving forces of tectonic subsidence of the basin were syn-rift and thermal post-rift processes, as well as tectonic loads related to the emplacement of accretionary wedge. This process was initiated at the end of the Paleocene at the Pieniny Klippen Belt (PKB)/Magura Basin boundary and was completed during Late Oligocene in the northern part of the Magura Basin. During Early Miocene the Magura Basin was finally folded, thrusted and uplifted as the Magura Nappe.