Risk assessment of snow disaster for trunk highway transportation in Shaanxi,China

Natural Hazards - Highway transportation was seriously affected by the rare 2008 snow disaster which occurred in China. Shaanxi Province (China) was one of the most affected areas. Research on risk...     

白兰高速公路沿线黄土场地震陷区判定与评价

采用DSD-160型电磁式振动三轴试验系统,通过对甘肃白银-兰州高速公路(国道109线)沿线黄土的震陷试验,探讨了该场地黄土在动荷载作用下的震陷特性.利用黄土震陷灾害预测方法和该地区黄土场地地震危险性分析结果,对该公路沿线黄土场地的震陷区进行了判定和评价.这些研究结果可作为该高速公路工程进行抗震设计和地震变形分析的基本依据,对黄土地区其它工程也有一定的参考价值.     

基于可拓层次分析法的泥石流危险性评价研究

本文从系统理论出发,基于可拓层次分析法(EAHP),利用可拓工程方法,在物元模型理论的基础上建立了泥石流危险性评价的物元模型,并采用层次分析法计算物元模型中各评价指标的权系数。然后对美姑河流域牛牛坝公路泥石流沟进行了评价,得到牛牛坝公路泥石流的危险性为中度危险。结果表明该方法为泥石流危险性研究提供了一条新的思路和手段。     

Quantitative assessment of landslide hazard along transportation lines using historical records

In this paper, a quantitative landslide hazard model is presented for transportation lines, with an example for a road and railroad alignment, in parts of Nilgiri hills in southern India. The data required for the hazard assessment were obtained from historical records available for a 21-year period from 1987 to 2007. A total of 901 landslides from cut slopes along the railroad and road alignment were included in the inventory. The landslides were grouped into three magnitude classes based on the landslide type, volume, scar depth, and run-out distance. To calculate landslide hazard, we estimated the total number of individual landslides per kilometer of the (rail) road for different return periods, based on the relationship between past landslides (recorded in our database) and triggering events. These were multiplied by the probability that the landslides belong to a given magnitude class. This gives the hazard for a given return period expressed as the number of landslides of a given magnitude class per kilometer of (rail) road. The relationship between the total number of landslides and the return period was established using a Gumbel distribution model, and the probability of landslide magnitude was obtained from frequency–volume statistics. The results of the analysis indicate that the total number of landslides, from 1- to 50-year return period, varies from 56 to 197 along the railroad and from 14 to 82 along the road. In total, 18 hazard scenarios were generated using the three magnitude classes and six return periods (1, 3, 5, 15, 25, and 50 years). The hazard scenarios derived from the model form the basis for future direct and indirect landslide risk analysis along the transportation lines. The model was validated with landslides that occurred in the year 2009.     

Risk assessment at Puerto Vallarta due to a local tsunami

Natural Hazards - The Jalisco region in western Mexico is one of the most seismically active in the country. The city of Puerto Vallarta is located at Bahía de Banderas on the northern coast...     

A classification system for the assessment of slope stability of terrains along highway routes in Jordan

 The establishment of comprehensive development plans, in general, and the proper selection of highway routes, in particular, require an assessment of landslides or instability hazards in the project sites. The frequent landslides that occurred along the routes of major highways in Jordan, and particularly along the Amman-Na'ur-Dead Sea highway and Irbid-Jerash-Amman highway, have substantially increased the cost of construction and caused a considerable delay in the completion of work. The study of many landslides that occurred in the last 25 years along the highway routes and in the sites of some major civil engineering projects in Jordan has led to the recognition of major factors that affect the stability of slopes, and thus the safety and economics of these projects. The geological formation, structural features, topographic characteristics, geometry, and climatic conditions were adopted as the basis for the classification of terrains in terms of their stability. Each factor has been assigned a rating to indicate its relative contribution to the overall stability according to engineering judgment and past experience. The areas have been classified into 5 groups according to their total stability rate. The simplicity, comprehensiveness, and accuracy are the main characteristics of the proposed classification. Its significance stems from its helpfulness as a guide to the geotechnical and highway engineers in assessing the overall stability of the alternative routes of proposed highway projects. Received: 3 December 1996 · Accepted: 29 April 1997     

Event tree analysis for rockfall risk assessment along a strategic mountainous transportation route

A quantitative risk analysis has been performed in a tourist area of Sicily (Italy) with the aim of assessing the rockfall risk along an important transportation corridor, crossing a geologically complex area and poor rock masses. The procedure followed herein is based on an event tree analysis, which was properly customized to take into account the peculiarity of the area and of the road path. Rock mass surveys, trajectory simulations and probabilistic models are proposed with the aim of calculating the probability related to possible scenarios in case of rockfalls. Achieved outcomes demonstrate that such procedure, resulting from a multifaceted study, is a reliable tool, which can be taken as reference to calibrate further risk models in comparable contexts of the world, where rockfall threaten communication routes. This would represent a helpful instrument to the scientific community and to local authorities dealing with one of the most troublesome natural phenomena affecting the public safety.     

基于证据权法的公路路基岩溶塌陷危险性评价

将证据权模型应用在公路路基岩溶发育强度分区中,在工程作用下岩溶强发育区易发生岩溶塌陷。介绍了证据权模型的方法。在丹霞枢纽互通区域,应用Arc GIS将研究区划分为5 m×5 m的栅格,考虑地层岩性、地下水距地面距离、顶板厚度、距断层距离4个证据因子,然后进行证据因子优选,通过叠加分析,得出岩溶发育强度的后验概率,并进行条件独立性检验,利用CAPP曲线确定阈值将后验概率分区。应用ROC曲线进行预测的精度评价,预测正确概率为66. 2%。最后结果表明,证据权模型应用在公路路基岩溶方面可行。     

同三国道（上海段）地质灾害危险性评价与防治对策

同三国道上海段按高速公路标准建设，全长75.5km，占地近450万m     

青海省东部农业区雷电灾害风险评估

利用2005-2013年青海省东部农业区14个县的雷电、雷电灾害、人口数量和生产总值等资料,采用《雷电灾害风险评估技术规范》（DB 50/214-2006）中的雷电灾害易损性风险评估指标,分析了该地的雷电灾害风险及区划,该风险区划对青海省东北农业区防御雷电灾害规划具有很好的参考价值,也是制定科学合理的雷电防护技术路线的重要依据：青海省东部农业区9年间共出现雷电3 801 d,最早出现在3月下旬,最晚结束在11月上旬,雷电出现最多地区为大通县;雷电灾害共出现47次,最早出现在4月,10月份结束,发生最多在6月份,盛夏7月雷电灾害却少,西宁市和湟源县雷电灾害出现最多,湟中县雷电造成的人员伤亡最多,共伤亡11人,大部分在山间劳作的村民和牧民,与青海省东部农业区发生的其它气象灾害相比,雷电灾害最容易造成人员和牲畜伤亡。雷电灾害风险以西宁市为中心,向四周扩散逐渐降低,北部地区相对高于南部地区,西宁市、大通县遭受雷电灾害的可能性程度最大,乐都县虽然近9年没有上报的雷电灾情,但它的雷电灾害风险并不低。     

基于地貌信息熵的天山公路冰川泥石流危险性评价

冰川泥石流广泛分布于我国西部地区,特殊的地貌条件对泥石流的发育有着重要影响。地貌信息熵理论是量化地貌发育阶段的指标,针对冰川地貌条件,探讨了地貌信息熵理论在冰川地貌条件下的应用,并提出了相应的修正系数。选取天山公路沿线13条泥石流沟,基于ArcGIS平台,进行了危险性评价。结果表明,修正后的地貌信息熵值能较好地判断冰川泥石流的危险程度。     

Application of matrix analysis in delineating sinkhole risk areas along highway (I-70 near Frederick,Maryland)

Sinkhole collapse in the area of Maryland Interstate 70 (I-70) and nearby roadways south of Frederick, Maryland, has been posing a threat to the safety of the highway operation as well as other structures. The occurrence of sinkholes is associated with intensive land development. However, the geological conditions that have been developing over the past 200 million years in the Frederick Valley control the locations of the sinkholes. Within an area of approximately 8 km², 138 sinkholes are recorded and their spatial distribution is irregular, but clustered. The clustering indicates the existence of an interaction between the sinkholes. The point pattern of sinkholes is considered to be a sample of a Gibbsian point process from which the hard-core Strauss Model is developed. The radius of influence is calculated for the recorded sinkholes which are most likely to occur within 30 m of an existing sinkhole. The stochastic analysis of the existing sinkholes is biased toward the areas with intensive land use. This bias is adjusted by considering (1) topography, (2) proximity to topographic depressions, (3) interpreted rock formation, (4) soil type, (5) geophysical anomalies, (6) proximity to geologic structures, and (7) thickness of overburden. Based on the properties of each factor, a scoring system is developed and the average relative risk score for individual 30-m segments of the study area is calculated. The areas designated by higher risk levels would have greater risk of a sinkhole collapse than the areas designated by lower risk levels. This risk assessment approach can be updated as more information becomes available.     

A very low frequency-electromagnetic study of the geo-environmental hazardous areas in Taiwan

This study utilized the very low frequency-electromagnetic (VLF-EM) technique, a passive electromagnetic prospecting method working in the very low frequency range (15–30 KHz) to investigate the geo-environmental problems of shallow, low conductivity sedimentary layers in Taiwan. Field examples successfully demonstrate the advantages of using this method in locating non-mineralized shallow fault zones. The zero-crossings of in-phase and quadrature measurements in 2-D contour maps clearly locate the position of subsurface anomalous source bodies. Further analysis of the measured VLF single profile peaks reveals that this method is useful in determining subsurface structures and conductivity. The advantages of nondestructive, noninvasive, and low consumption of power make this method extremely friendly to the environment. The authors anticipate this method will have more profound impacts on the interactions between prospecting technology and the earth.     

Support capacity of wedges along tunnels of Egnatia highway

Four tunnels along the under construction Egnatia highway, were studied in N. Greece (Polymylos and Vassilikos areas). The concept was to investigate the changes of the safety factors and the support ability of the wedges, regarding to their dimensions, taking also into account the spacing of the discontinuities. The safety factors of the wedges, as well as their ration before and after support, were correlated significantly with the weights and the volumes of the wedges, using powered regressions. According to these results the efficiency of the support ability of the shotcrete is very high in cases where the rock mass is cracked. There is no difference in safety factor between using only shotcrete and using shotcrete and rockbolts for supporting relatively small wedges. This ability decreases dramatically for bigger wedge volumes, over 20m³ and of weights in cases where these are over about 40tns. In these cases, the shotcrete presents low efficiency and bolting is the main support measure performed.     

Risk assessment of heavy metals in topsoil along the banks of theYangtze River in Huangshi,China

High concentrations of heavy metal in farmland threatens food production and human health. Our study assesses soil quality and the distribution of Cd, Cr, Cu, Zn, Pb and Ni, to identify possible sources of heavy metals along the banks of the Yangtze River in Huangshi. Heavy metal concentrations of 22 topsoil samples were measured using the inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry instrument and data was analyzed by multivariate statistic approaches. Heavy metal contamination risk assessment was performed using a combination of the Nemerow multi-factor index method, the Hakanson potential ecological risk index method and the Muller index of geo-accumulation method. These methods determined similar results indicating that cadmium (Cd) poses a health risk to residents at the study site while Cr, Cu, Zn, Pb and Ni do not. The Nemerow multi-factor index method demonstrated that 18 samples were heavily polluted, three moderately polluted and one lightly polluted. The Muller index of geo-accumulation method found ten samples were moderately to strongly polluted by Cd, five were moderately polluted, six were lightly to moderately polluted and one was lightly polluted. The Hakanson potential ecological risk index method proved six samples were strongly polluted, seven were moderately polluted and nine were lightly polluted. Since our sampling sites were all in agricultural lands, we recommend the potential ecological risk index method as the most effective given it not only considers the range of pollutants contributing to soil pollution but factors in heavy metals toxicity. We are apt that the source of the high concentrations of Cd found in topsoil is derived from alluvial sediments upstream of the Yangtze River with a high percentage of residual speciation and a low percentage of exchangeable speciation distribution of Cd. This in turns indicates that a high concentration of Cd in soil had little impact on the natural environment. However, 31.9% of the iron-manganese oxides bound speciation indicating that such levels of Cd in soil would be potentially hazardous to the crops, particularly if exposed to a reductive condition.     

Modeling business interruption impacts due to disrupted highway network of Shifang by the Wenchuan earthquake

Natural Hazards - A highway network plays an important role in sustaining business operations in a regional economy. However, in the event of catastrophic earthquakes, a highway network is very...     

四川金川-小金公路沿线滑坡、崩塌影响因素分析

高原山区地质灾害是交通线路最大的危害,而有效避险的关键是掌握沿途地质灾害发生的工程地质条件内因及诱导因素。本文以川西阿坝州高原山区金小公路沿线带状区域内的滑坡、崩塌为研究对象,以地理、地质、气象、遥感资料和实地调查为基础,运用空间分析和数理统计方法,对其形成的影响因素进行了系统研究。结果表明：（1）金汤弧形褶皱形成的同时,区内软硬互层的炭质泥岩、粉砂质泥岩、粉砂岩的地层发生劈理化,喜山期构造运动及频繁的地震活动,加剧了岩石的破碎程度,为区内滑坡、崩塌提供了物源,并为高山峡谷地形地貌的塑造创造了有利条件;（2）区内6–9月份的集中降雨是诱发滑坡、崩塌的主要因素;（3）高山、峡谷、高角度斜坡等地形地貌以及公路建设中坡脚开挖为崩塌、滑坡等埋下了隐患;（4）季节性冻融作用加速了基岩风化破坏,对滑坡、崩塌的形成具有促进作用。     

山区公路高切坡岩土安全分区研究

将统一强度理论和Lode应力参数进行耦合,建立计算山区公路高切坡局部安全稳定的数学模型。基于ArcGIS9.3对高切坡数据进行前期处理和分析,采用有限元分析软件对高切坡研究断面进行数值模拟,得到断面各节点的相关参数,利用ArcGIS9.3对数值模拟结果进行后期分析与可视化,最终得到研究断面岩土安全分区图。以重庆市两巫（巫山－巫溪）路高切坡K88＋680为实例,模拟得到K88＋660、K88＋680和K88＋700三个断面的安全分区图,并在此基础上通过空间插值方法得出该路段坡面的安全分区图。研究结果与实际相吻合,可用于指导该高切坡的开挖及防治,同时研究方法对于高切坡的局部安全研究具有重要的参考价值。     

震后映卧路沿线泥石流发育分布特征及防治措施

震后映卧路沿线泥石流发育分布呈面积广、发生频率高等特点。调查结果公路沿线主要发育泥石流两类57条,其中沟谷型泥石流28处,坡面型泥石流29处,沟谷型泥石流以大型—特大型为主,坡面型泥石流以小型为主;针对该区泥石流的发育特征,提出了生物防治和工程治理相结合的防治措施,对映卧路的防灾减灾工程有积极的意义。     

青藏公路工程活动对沿线植被覆盖的影响

利用2000-2012年的MODIS 增强植被指数（Enhanced Vegetation Index,EVI）数据,结合研究区3个气象台站长期的气象数据,分析了青藏公路沿线植被变化总体趋势,以及不同整修措施对周边植被覆盖带来的不同影响.通过实地考察,选取了16个受工程活动影响的典型路边样方,3个铁路边样方和8个远离公路铁路的自然样方,对比路边和自然样方,分析植被的自我恢复能力以及4个主要影响因子.结果表明：青藏公路沿线植被覆盖变化是在整个气候变化的背景下,叠加了工程活动的影响.植被的恢复能力与其所在路段的地形、植被覆盖度、气候条件、以及工程活动的强度均有关系,抑制植被生长的因素越多,植被恢复越慢.