Forecasting hurricane-induced power outage durations

Accurate estimates of the duration of power outages caused by hurricanes prior to landfall are valuable for utility companies and government agencies that wish to plan and optimize their restoration efforts. Accurate pre-storm estimates are also important information for customers and operators of other infrastructures systems, who rely heavily on electricity. Traditionally, utilities make restoration plans based on managerial judgment and experience. However, skillful outage forecast models are conducive to improved decision-making practices by utilities and can greatly enhance storm preparation and restoration management procedures of power companies and emergency managers. This paper presents a novel statistical approach for estimating power outage durations that is 87 % more accurate than existing models in the literature. The power outage duration models are developed and carefully validated for outages caused by Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, and Ivan in a central Gulf Coast state. This paper identifies the key variables in predicting hurricane-induced outage durations and their degree of influence on predicting outage restoration for the utility company service area used as our case study.     

Importance of soil and elevation characteristics for modeling hurricane-induced power outages

Hurricanes can severely damage the electric power system, and therefore, predicting the potential impact of an approaching hurricane is of importance for facilitating planning and storm-response activities. A data mining approach, classification and regression trees (CART), was employed to evaluate whether the inclusion of soil and topographic variables improved the predictive accuracy of the power outage models. A total of 37 soil variables and 20 topographic variables were evaluated in addition to hurricane, power system, and environmental variables. Hurricane variables, specifically the maximum wind gust and duration of strong winds, were the most important variables for predicting power outages in all models. Although the inclusion of soil and topographic variables did not significantly improve the overall accuracy of outage predictions, soil type and soil texture are useful predictors of hurricane-related power outages. Both of these variables provide information about the soil stability which, in turn, influences the likelihood of poles remaining upright and trees being uprooted. CART was also used to evaluate whether environmental variables can be used instead of power system variables. Our results demonstrated that certain land cover variables (e.g., LC21, LC22, and LC23) are reasonable proxies for the power system and can be used in a CART model, with only a minor decrease in predictive accuracy, when detailed information about the power system is not available. Therefore, CART-based power outage models can be developed in regions where detailed information on the power system is not available.     

Assessment of the hurricane-induced power outages from a demographic,socioeconomic, and transportation perspective

Natural disasters have devastating effects on the infrastructure and disrupt every aspect of daily life in the regions they hit. To alleviate problems caused by these disasters, first an impact assessment is needed. As such, this paper focuses on a two-step methodology to identify the impact of Hurricane Hermine on the City of Tallahassee, the capital of Florida. The regional and socioeconomic variations in the Hermine’s impact were studied via spatially and statistically analyzing power outages. First step includes a spatial analysis to illustrate the magnitude of customers affected by power outages together with a clustering analysis. This step aims to determine whether the customers affected from outages are clustered or not. Second step involves a Bayesian spatial autoregressive model in order to identify the effects of several demographic-, socioeconomic-, and transportation-related variables on the magnitude of customers affected by power outages. Results showed that customers affected by outages are spatially clustered at particular regions rather than being dispersed. This indicates the need to pinpoint such vulnerable locations and develop strategies to reduce hurricane-induced disruptions. Furthermore, the increase in the magnitude of affected customers was found to be associated with several variables such as the power network and total generated trips as well as the demographic factors. The information gained from the findings of this study can assist emergency officials in identifying critical and/or less resilient regions, and determining those demographic and socioeconomic groups which were relatively more affected by the consequences of hurricanes than others.     

Dissolved oxygen dynamics in Charlotte Harbor and its contributing watershed, in response to hurricanes Charley, Frances, and Jeanne—Impacts and recovery

On August 13, 2004, Hurricane Charley came ashore in the Charlotte Harbor watershed. Surface winds at the time of landfall were estimated at 130 knots. The track of the hurricane roughly followed the floodplain of the Peace River, causing massive defoliation and mortality of native vegetation and planted citrus groves, as well as substantial damage to human habitation and various infrastructure elements. Eight days after landfall, a water quality monitoring effort documented hypoxic (<2 mg I⁻¹) to nearly anaerobic (<0.5 mg I⁻¹) dissolved oxygen (DO) values throughout the vast majority of the Peace River's c. 6,000 km² watershed. Low DO values appeared to be related to high values of both dissolved organic matter and suspended materials. Hypoxic conditions in Charlotte Harbor itself, occurred within 2 wk of landfall. Approximately 3 wk after the landfall of Hurricane Charley, Hurricane Frances struck the east coast of Florida, causing further wind damage and bringing substantial amounts of rain to the Charlotte Harbor watershed. Three weeks later still, Hurricane Jeanne caused similar damage to the same area. In response to the combined effects of these three hurricanes, DO values in the Peace River did not recover to pre-hurricane levels until approximately 2–3 mo later. The spatial and temporal pattern of DO fluctuations appeared to be related to the proximity of sampling locations to the path of the eyewall of the first of the three hurricanes. Within the Harbor itself, the duration of hypoxic conditions was less than that recorded within the Peace River, perhaps reflecting greater dilution of oxygen-poor waters from the watershed with less-affected water from the Gulf of Mexico.     

Hurricanes 2004: An overview of their characteristics and coastal change

Four hurricanes battered the state of Florida during 2004, the most affecting any state since Texas endured four in 1884. Each of the storms changed the coast differently. Average shoreline change within the right front quadrant of hurricane force winds varied from 1 m of shoreline advance to 20 m of retreat, whereas average sand volume change varied from 11 to 66 m³ m⁻¹ of net loss (erosion). These changes did not scale simply with hurricane intensity as described by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. The strongest storm of the season, category 4 Hurricane Charley, had the least shoreline retreat. This was likely because of other factors like the storm's rapid forward speed and small size that generated a lower storm surge than expected. Two of the storms, Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne, affected nearly the same area on the Florida east coast just 3 wk apart. The first storm, Frances, although weaker than the second, caused greater shoreline retreat and sand volume erosion. As a consequence, Hurricane Frances may have stripped away protective beach and exposed dunes to direct wave attack during Jeanne, although there was significant dune erosion during both storms. The maximum shoreline change for all four hurricanes occurred during Ivan on the coasts of eastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. The net volume change across a barrier island within the Ivan impact zone approached zero because of massive overwash that approximately balanced erosion of the beach. These data from the 2004 hurricane season will prove useful in developing new ways to scale and predict coastal-change effects during hurricanes.     

The effects of transportation network failure on people’s accessibility to hurricane disaster relief goods: a modeling approach and application to a Florida case study

Following the catastrophic and devastating Atlantic Hurricane seasons in 2004 and 2005, there has been increased interest in formulating planning directives and policy aimed at minimizing the societal impacts of future storms. Not all populations will evacuate an area forecast to be affected by a hurricane, so emergency managers must plan for these people who remain behind. Such planning includes making food, water, ice, and other provisions available at strategic locations throughout an affected area. Recent research has tackled problems related to humanitarian and relief goods distribution with respect to hurricanes. Experience shows that the torrential rains and heavy winds associated with hurricanes can severely damage transportation network infrastructure rendering it unusable. Scanning the literature on hurricane disaster relief provision, there are no studies that expressly consider the potential damage that may be caused to a transportation network by strong storms. This paper examines the impacts of simulated network failures on hurricane disaster relief planning strategies, using a smaller Florida City as an example. A relief distribution protocol is assumed where goods distribution points are set up in pre-determined locations following the passage of a storm. Simulation results reveal that modest disruptions to the transportation network produce marked changes in the number and spatial configuration of relief facilities. At the same time, the transportation network appears to be robust and is able to support relief service provision even at elevated levels of hypothesized disruption.     

Resilience: a capacity and a myth: findings from an in-depth case study in disaster management research

Hurricane Andrew, which made landfall on August 24, 1992, was one of the most destructive hurricanes in American history, causing atypically high levels of psychological and physical health impairment among the resident population and especially among vulnerable groups. This article investigates whether maternal exposure to Hurricane Andrew during pregnancy increased the risk of dystocia (or dysfunctional labor) and infant delivery by cesarean section, the standard medical response to abnormal labor progression. We analyze 297,996 birth events in Miami-Dade and Broward counties in Florida from 1992 to 1993 using propensity score methodology with stratification and nearest-neighbor matching algorithms. Results show that hurricane-exposed pregnant women were significantly more likely to experience stress-induced abnormal labor and cesarean delivery outcomes as compared to statistically matched comparison groups. The conclusion details the policy implications of our results, with particular attention to the importance of maternal prenatal care in the aftermath of disasters.     

Time to leave: an analysis of travel times during the approach and landfall of Hurricane Irma

Hurricane Irma caused widespread evacuation activity across Florida and some of its neighboring states in September of 2017. The researchers gathered estimated travel times from the Google Distance Matrix API over about a month to identify and analyze evacuation periods on roads in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina during this time. Travel time data were mathematically adjusted to show more realistic estimations. Both sets of travel times were then graphed, with the assumption that elevated travel times prior to and during hurricane landfall were indicative of evacuation activity. The study generally corroborated the well-established daytime evacuation preference. However, not all evacuation periods followed the daytime travel preference, and at least one nighttime evacuation may have been caused by flooding. In another case, later elevated travel coincided with significant power loss. Finally, the Florida data suggest that most of the evacuation traffic departed before local jurisdictions’ recommended evacuation start times.

     

Risk perception and evacuation decisions of Florida tourists under hurricane threats: a stated preference analysis

Though most hurricane evacuation studies have focused on residents, tourists are also a vulnerable population. To assess their perceptions of risk and evacuation likelihood under different hurricane conditions, we surveyed 448 tourists visiting central Florida. Respondents viewed four maps emulating track forecast cones produced by the National Hurricane Center and text information featuring variations of storm intensity, coast of landfall, centerline position relative to the survey site, time until landfall, and event duration. We performed chi-square tests to determine which hurricane conditions, and aspects of tourists such as their demographics and previous hurricane experience, most likely influenced their ratings of risk and evacuation likelihood for respondents located on Pinellas County beaches or inland near Orlando, FL. Highly rated scenarios featured a Category 4 hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast with the centerline passing over the sampling site. Overall, tourists that indicated the highest risk and evacuation ratings were not previously affected by a hurricane, had a trip duration of less than 6 days, and had checked for the possibility of a hurricane strike before departure. However, results for other tourist attributes differed between tourists in coastal and inland locations. We found that although somewhat knowledgeable about hurricanes, tourists misinterpreted the track forecast cone and hurricane conditions, which led to a lower perception of risk and subsequent likelihood to evacuate. Tourists, particularly those from outside of Florida, need to be better educated about the risks they face from hurricanes that make landfall.     

Infrastructure failure interdependencies in extreme events: power outage consequences in the 1998 Ice Storm

This paper addresses the problem of interdependent failures of critical infrastructures in disasters. Disruptions to critical infrastructure systems such as electric power or transportation frequently cause major social and economic loss in disasters, both directly and through failures in one system leading to or compounding disruptions in another. Strategic approaches regarding infrastructure failures are needed to guide community mitigation and preparedness efforts. This paper defines and provides a conceptual framework for investigating infrastructure failure interdependencies (IFIs) from the standpoint of societal impacts. In order to identify empirical patterns, a unique database has been developed of IFIs observed in major electric power outage events. This paper presents analysis of this data for a major Canadian disaster, the 1998 Ice Storm that affected the northeastern region of the country. The analysis identifies IFIs due to power outage caused by the storm that are of greatest societal concern. These represent potential foci for effective, targeted pre-disaster mitigation and preparedness efforts. The framework and approach are broadly applicable across a range of natural and human-induced hazards.     

The use of press data in the development of a database for rainfall-induced landslides in Tegucigalpa,Honduras, 1980–2005

The capital city of Honduras, Tegucigalpa, suffers from the occurrence of destructive landslides on a yearly basis. During the rainy season, damages to infrastructure as well as injuries, casualties and homeless individuals resulting from landslides are reported in the press. This paper presents the development of a database for rainfall-induced landslides for the period 1980–2005, based on the news reported by two local newspapers. The editions comprehended during the study period have been scrutinized, and articles focusing on landslides, tropical storms, hurricanes, floods and vulnerability of the city have been collected. The interpretation of these archives has allowed the compilation of valuable data of approximately 400 landslides. The analyses of monthly and annual precipitation during the study period show how extreme rainfall events like Hurricane Mitch in October of 1998 have significantly contributed to the initiation of landslides. In addition, the assessment of the slums and neighborhoods affected by landslides during the study period reveals an evident link between the social and physical vulnerability of Tegucigalpa. In order to estimate the reliability of this press-based database, the set of landslides that have been reported as a result of Hurricane Mitch in the press archives has been compared with two inventories based on the interpretation of aerial photographs taken in 1999 and 2001. It is shown that the analysis of the landslide damage left after the hurricane can be enriched with the detailed temporal data provided in the archives and the precise location of these events determined by the aerial photographs. Despite the difficulties faced in the compilation of this database, a good comprehension of the temporal and spatial distribution of landslides in Tegucigalpa has been achieved.     

Hurricane wind risk in Louisiana

A statistical procedure for estimating the risk of strong winds from hurricanes, known as the Hurricane Risk Calculator, is demonstrated and applied to several major cities in Louisiana. The procedure provides an estimate of wind risk over different length periods and can be applied to any location experiencing this hazard. Results show that an area 100 km around the city of New Orleans can expect to see hurricane winds blowing at 49 ms^?1 (44.3–53.7) [90 % confidence interval (CI)] or stronger, on average, once every 20 years. In comparison, for the same time period, the capital city of Baton Rouge and the surrounding area can expect to see hurricane winds of 43 ms^?1 (38.2–47.8) (90 % CI) or stronger. Hurricane track direction is also analyzed at the cities of interest. For Morgan City, Lafayette, Lake Charles, and Alexandria, tropical cyclones with winds at least 18 ms^?1 travel from the southeast to northwest. New Orleans and Baton Rouge tropical cyclones have a greater tendency to turn toward the east while within 100 km of the city, historically giving them a southwesterly approach. Tropical cyclones within 350 km off the south-central Louisiana coast occur most often in September, and the most extreme of these events are becoming stronger through time as shown with quantile regression.     

The influence of context on lifeline behavior: Local policies under wind storm and earthquake scenarios

Local policies can play an important role in establishing a context that shapes vulnerability and influences subsequent recovery of lifelines under the natural hazards of extreme wind and seismic events. External factors, such as access availability, have long been known to influence the rate of restoration of utility systems following blackouts. Thus, since system performance takes place within a socio-technical-political context, it can be anticipated that selected local policies may also influence either the geographic extent of damage or the rate of restoration or both. This project empirically validates the assumption that selected local non-design policies establish a context that significantly (measurably) influences system functionality in terms of spatial extent and duration of outage.     

Social vulnerability index for coastal communities at risk to hurricane hazard and a changing climate

This paper presents the development of the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) in order to quantify the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone areas under various scenarios of climate change. The 2004–2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons is estimated to have caused 150 billion dollars in damages, and in recent years, the annual hurricane damage in the United States is estimated at around150 billion dollars in damages, and in recent years, the annual hurricane damage in the United States is estimated at around 6 billion. Hurricane intensity or/and frequency may change due to the increase in sea surface temperature as a result of climate change. Climate change is also predicted to cause a rise in sea levels, potentially resulting in higher storm surges. The CCSVI combines the intensity of hurricanes and hurricane-induced surge to create a comprehensive index that considers the effects of a changing climate. The main contributing factors of social vulnerability (such as race, age, gender, and socioeconomic status) in hurricane-prone areas are identified through a principal components analysis. The impact of social characteristics on the potential hurricane damage under various scenarios of climate change are evaluated using Miami-Dade County, Florida, as a case study location. This study finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the CCSVI.     

Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne remove blooms of the invasive green algaCaulerpa brachypus formaparvifolia (Harvey) cribb from coral reefs off Northern Palm Beach County, Florida

Coral reefs worldwide are under stress from a variety of anthropogenic activities that can alter or inhibit recovery from catastrophic physical disturbances such as hurricanes. On coral reefs off southeast Florida, land-based nutrient pollution contributed to a successful invasion ofCaulerpa brachypus fornaparvifolia that dominated (up to 90% cover) reefs between January 2003 and August 2004. In September 2004, physical effects from Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne removed virtually all of theC. brachypus from the affected reefs. In July 2005, small patches ofC. brachypus began to re-emerge and the area was affected again by Hurricane Wilma in October 2005. Although these hurricanes provided temporary relief from theC. brachypus invasion, the future of these reefs is uncertain because of competition with other opportunistic macroalgae and biota that may respond to the combination of newly created space and continued nutrient stress.     

Hydrodynamic Response of Northeastern Gulf of Mexico to Hurricanes

The northeastern Gulf of Mexico in the USA is extremely susceptible to the impacts of tropical cyclones because of its unique geometric and topographic features. Focusing on Hurricanes Ivan (2004) and Katrina (2005), this paper has addressed four scientific questions on this area’s response to hurricanes: (1) How does the shallow, abandoned Mississippi delta contribute to the storm surge? (2) What was the controlling factor that caused the record-high storm surge of Hurricane Katrina? (3) Why are the responses of an estuary to Hurricanes Ivan and Katrina so different from the corresponding surges on the open coast? (4) How would the storm surge differ if Hurricane Katrina had taken a different course? Guided by field observations of winds, waves, water levels, and currents, two state-of-the-art numerical models for storm surges and wind waves have been coupled to hindcast the relevant hydrodynamic conditions, including storm surges, surface waves, and depth-averaged currents. Fairly good agreement between the modeled and measured surge hydrographs was found. The quantitative numerical simulations and simple qualitative analysis have revealed that the record-high storm surge of Hurricane Katrina was caused by the interaction of the surge with the extremely shallow, ancient deltaic lobe of Mississippi River. A hypothetical scenario formed by shifting the path of Hurricane Katrina to the observed path of Hurricane Frederic (1979) resulted in a much smaller surge than that observed in coastal Mississippi and Louisiana. However, this scenario did still result in a high surge near the head of Mobile Bay. One of the important lessons learned from Hurricane Katrina is that the Saffir–Simpson scale should be systematically revised to reflect the topographic and geometric features of a complex, heterogeneous coast, including the possible surge amplification in an estuary or a submerged river delta.     

An index of relative displacement risk to hurricanes

Indicator and index-building activities have become commonplace for assessing and estimating social, environmental, and economic strengths and vulnerabilities of communities, regions and even countries. In the context of disasters, much of the empirical research has focused on identifying places and populations that are vulnerable to catastrophic hurricane and flood disasters. However, there have not been parallel efforts to capture measures for displacement risk. This article seeks to fill this gap by focusing on (1) a preliminary conceptualization of displacement risk; (2) a set of related indicators and measures at various scales, including indicators tapping policy capacity and commitment; and (3) development of an operational displacement risk index (DRI) and results for a snapshot year of 2007. The study area, 158 counties in the United States, was the coastal portion (an area two counties “deep”) of eight states. Findings suggest that the mean levels of DRI scores were much higher for coastal counties. Clusters of the highest DRI scores are particularly evident for coastal counties of Florida, especially the South Florida counties of Miami Dade, Monroe, Palm Beach, and Broward. Florida also scores high in terms of the top ten most vulnerable counties (i.e., 7 of the top 10) as well as exposure to hurricanes (i.e., 6 of the top 10 counties with the highest probability of hurricane strikes). Despite the limitations explained in the paper, we hope that the creation of the DRI has helped to fill a gap in knowledge and will lead to higher level theoretical and research discussions on the population displacement phenomenon, its determinants and planning and policy interventions.     

Analysis of the seismic vulnerability and the structural characteristics of houses in Chinese rural areas

Disastrous earthquakes brought extensive damage to rural houses not designed to resist seismic movements in China. So far, the paucity of nation-wide data on rural houses, especially on their structural features, has prevented a comprehensive national assessment of the earthquake vulnerability of rural areas. This paper estimates the proportion of rural houses in each of five different structural groups in county-level administration units in China with downscaling methods and assesses the seismic vulnerability of counties paying attention to the seismic intensity and social–economic characteristics of different areas. A housing damage index is constructed with the expected amount and ratio of damaged houses in earthquakes, based on which four vulnerability levels are specified for each county-level unit. The results show that highly vulnerable and vulnerable counties account for 7.9 % and 10.7 % of all, respectively. Based on the distribution of these counties, the critical factors of weakness in different regions, such as seismic intensity, housing quality and population density, are analyzed, and risk reduction strategies are discussed.     

Storms of tropical origin: a climatology for New York State,USA (1851–2005)

The tropical storm database used in this study was obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Coastal Service Center, using the Historical Hurricane Tracks tool. Queries were used to determine the number of storms of tropical origin that have impacted the State and each of its counties. A total of 76 storms of tropical origin passed over New York State between 1851 and 2005. Of these storms, 14 were classified as hurricanes. The remaining hurricanes passed over New York State as weaker or modified systems—27 tropical storms, 7 tropical depressions, and 28 extratropical storms (ET). Long Island experiences a disproportionate number of hurricanes and tropical storms. The average frequency of hurricanes and storms of tropical origin (all types) is one in every 11 years and one in every 2 years, respectively. September is the month of greatest frequency for storms of tropical origin, although the storms of greatest intensity tend to arrive later in the hurricane season and follow different poleward tracks. While El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles appear to show some influence, the frequency and intensity of storms of tropical origin appear to follow a multidecadal cycle. Storm activity was greatest in both the late 19th and 20th centuries. During periods of increased storm frequency and intensity storms reached New York State at progressively later dates. While the number and timing of storms of tropical origin is likely to increase, this increase appears to be attributed to a multidecadal cycle, as opposed to a trend in global warming.     

Phytoplankton forcing by a record freshwater discharge event into a large lagoonal estuary

We report here the response of the water column and phytoplankton biomass of a large lagoonal estuary to a record freshwater discharge event which followed from extraordinary hurricane activity. In the fall of 1999, three hurricanes passed over eastern North Carolina coast in a 7-wk period: Hurricane Dennis (August 24–September 5), Hurricane Floyd (September 14–17), and Hurricane Irene (October 13–16). The hurricanes delivered record rainfall to the watersheds of the Pamlico Sound, North Carolina, the second largest estuary in North America. Hurricane Floyd was followed by a 500-yr flood that displaced 80% of the volume of the Sound and delivered half the annual nitrogen (N)-nutrient load to this N-limited system.After Hurricane Floyd, buoyancy stratification restricted the mixed layer depth, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) in surface waters increased, and surface chlorophyll biomass increased up to 4-fold. Chlorophyll biomass did not increase to the potential indicated by residual DIN because of light-limitation attributable to suspended particulates, phytoplankton pigments, and colored dissolved organic material (CDOM).The discharge waters created hydrological conditions and supplied materials that we interpret to have both stimulated and restricted phytoplankton blooms. The effects of the discharge event on the hydrology and phytoplankton of the Pamlico Sound persisted about 6 months, after which it returned to its pre-event condition, attesting to the resilience of the system.