Database of geo-hydrological disasters for civil protection purposes

This paper presents the results of a research concerning available historical information about natural hazards (landslides and floods) and consequent disasters in the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano, in Northern Italy. A geo-referenced database, collecting information till 2008, was designed with the aim of using available data of historical events for hazard estimation and the definition of risk scenarios as a basis for Civil Protection planning and emergency management purposes. This database and related statistics about landslides and floods are shown, and a brief overview of historical disasters caused by natural hazards in the study area is presented. A case study showing how useful the database can be to define a simple but realistic scenario is described. Information availability and reliability is discussed and possible uncertainties are underlined. The study shows that collecting and making use of historical information for the definition of hypothetical scenarios and the evaluation of territorial threats is a fundamental source of knowledge to deal with future emergencies.     

The relationship between fire behaviour measures and community loss: an exploratory analysis for developing a bushfire severity scale

Current fire danger scales do not adequately reflect the potential destructive force of a bushfire in Australia and, therefore, do not provide fire prone communities with an adequate warning for the potential loss of human life and property. To determine options for developing a bushfire severity scale based on community impact and whether a link exists between the energy release rate (power) of a fire and community loss, this paper reviewed observations of 79 wildfires (from 1939 to 2009) across Victoria and other southern states of Australia. A methodology for estimating fire power based on fuel loading, fire size and progression rate is presented. McArthur??s existing fire danger indices (FDIs) as well as fuel- and slope-adjusted FDIs were calculated using fire weather data. Analysis of possible relationships between fire power, FDIs, rate of spread and Byram??s fireline intensity and community loss was performed using exposure as a covariate. Preliminary results showed that a stronger relationship exists between community loss and the power of the fire than between loss and FDI, although fuel-adjusted FDI was also a good predictor of loss. The database developed for this study and the relationships established are essential for undertaking future studies that require observations of past fire behaviour and losses and also to form the basis of developing a new severity scale.     

地质灾害预警预报模型设计与应用

基于地质灾害的多样性及其变化的随机性和非稳定性特点,本文综合利用数学算法和GIS技术,设计了地质灾害预警模型,分析了诱发地质灾害的地形、地貌、气象、水文等几方面的因素,并根据这些因素的特点,选取不同的样本对其进行量化处理,运用主成分分析法,计算了各个因素导致地质灾害发生的权重指数及各监测站点的易发级别。在此基础上,基于GIS技术、采用泰森多边形法等将站点的易发级别转换成面的易发级别,运用日降雨量、降雨强度等指标计算出地质灾害发生的概率,通过区域化易发等级图与降雨图的叠加分析,采用地质气象偶合方法,实现了地质灾害预测。在某省案例区的研究表明,本研究设计的地质灾害预警模型具有较高的预警精度(预警结果80%符合实际情况)。     

Subsurface tectonic pattern and basement topography as interpreted from aeromagnetic data to the south of El-Dakhla Oasis,western desert,Egypt

The study area lies to the south of El-Dakhla Oasis in the central part of the western desert, Egypt. It is limited by the latitudes 24–25°?N and the longitudes 28–30°?E. The main purpose of this work is the investigation of the subsurface structure and the delineation of the main structural elements at different subsurface levels. This study aims also to estimate the basement depth, the basement relief, and consequently, the thickness of the sedimentary cover. The study is based on acquired aeromagnetic data prepared by "La Compagnie General De Géophysique" for the Egyptian General Petroleum Company and Conoco (1977), geological information and results of previous studies in the region. The study involves the analysis for the aeromagnetic data and generating of reduced to pole magnetic map from which different magnetic maps are calculated. The calculated maps are first vertical derivative map and downward continuation map at depth level 400 m. Trend analysis technique is used to define the fault pattern affecting the studied area at different subsurface levels. It is applied to the reduced to pole magnetic map, the first vertical derivative map, and the downward continuation map at depth level 400 m of the study area. All results obtained from the interpretation process were combined together to draw the general view of the subsurface structures of the area. The NE–SW, E–W, and N–S trends are important surface and subsurface (basement) structural trends. This is attributed to the rejuvenation of movements on these old (basement) tectonic trends after the deposition of the sedimentary cover. Basement depth calculation from the aeromagnetic data is achieved using different techniques. The applied techniques included natural spectral analysis and Euler deconvolution. The depth values obtained vary from 400 to 1,700 m.     

大回线源瞬变电磁一维自适应反演方法及应用

提出了一种适用于大回线源瞬变电磁法框内任意测点垂直Z分量的一维反演方法。该算法采用CMD正则化因子优化方案、光滑度函数和自然边界条件对反演过程进行了约束,减小了初值的依赖度,保证了反演过程的自主性和反演结果的稳定性;在反演过程中,在保证模型残差沿梯度下降的同时,对模型修正量的最大值进行了限制,使反演模型不易陷入局部极小,保证了反演结果全局的收敛性;同时反演的灵敏度矩阵采用牛顿法进行更新,减少了整个反演计算的工作量。最后通过五层的双低阻层模型、双高阻层模型和实测资料证明了该算法可靠。     

Kapati Island,a natural area in demand: Assessing social impacts

Kapiti Island Nature Reserve is an example of a fully protected natural area that is under pressure for increasing visitor access. Present restrictions on visitor numbers to this bird sanctuary provided for a controlled setting which was used as a case study in social impact assessment. The aim was to develop methods of monitoring visitors' perceptions of social impacts, and to establish an appropriate carrying capacity. Visitor experiences were first explored by using qualitative methods. Second, items based on these qualitative data were then used to define quantitative data and validate measures and procedures. The wider application of this research is the development of methods of assessment relevant to other natural areas which are also coming under pressure from growing domestic and international visitation.     

可持续生计的研究现状及未来重点趋向

Under the background of fast urbanization and urban-rural dual structure in China, the research about sustainable livelihoods has important theoretical and practical meaning for solving the problem of poverty in rural areas and promoting the transformation of semi-urbanized farmers who live in city to urban residents. First, this paper reviewed the emergence and development history of sustainable livelihoods, and introduced current frameworks of sustainable livelihoods analysis. Second, this paper summarized the international research status quo from the aspects of both theory and practice, concluded the domestic research progress from four aspects including vulnerability context, livelihoods assets, policy and institution influencing process, livelihoods strategy and outcome. This study believed that the problems of current sustainable livelihoods research included: The theoretical system is incomplete and needs to be improved; research methods and technological means are not complete, which could obstruct research results; most researches focus on rather static assessment than dynamic forecast; researchers focus mainly on case study in rural areas, lacking in the semi-urbanized farmers in the urbanization process and macro level study. Finally, this paper suggested five key issues of future sustainable livelihoods research including the sustainable livelihoods research of a large number of semi-urbanized farmers in the urbanization process, sustainable livelihoods research at macro level, integrated study of both humanities and natural sciences, dynamic study based on new technological means, and sustainable livelihoods research in typical case areas.     

Compilation of hydrogeological map of China

Hydrogeological map is one of the important carriers of groundwater related information. It directly reflects the hydrogeological conditions and previous investigation and research results of a mapping area. The hydrogeological map of China is a map reflecting the characteristics of hydrogeology and groundwater dynamics on a national scale. On the basis of the hydrogeological map of China (1: 4 000 000) compiled in 1988, this map compilation attempted to update and enhance the existing map, with the latest survey results from the project of National Investigation and Evaluation of Groundwater Resources and Environmental Problems led by China Geological Survey. Task of the mapping program included redefining groundwater types, quantifying the classification standard of the groundwater and adding the pore-fissure water in laterite layer of hilly basin. The multilayer structures for porous, karst and porous-fractured groundwater and their water-rich grades are reflected on the map. Based on the comprehensive summary of the latest hydrogeological data of China, this research conducts an in-depth analysis of the regional distribution characteristics of groundwater in China, utilizes a digital mapping process and establishes a cartographic database for the purpose of further use. With the enrichment of the content and the continuous improvement of cognitive level, mapping content can be updated quickly, which has practical significance for the concept of surveying and mapping and scientific popularization.     

遗传算法在边坡地震稳定性分析中的应用

基于遗传算法和拟静力简化毕肖普法提出搜索地震作用下最危险滑动面及相应的最小安全系数的方法。阐述了应用遗传算法搜索最危险滑动面的计算过程和原理。开发了基于遗传算法的拟静力简化毕肖普数值法的计算和数据处理程序。在固定一个出逸点的情况下,分别绘制了有地震作用及没有地震作用下的安全系数分布图。数值算例表明,所建立的基于遗传算法的岩土边坡地震稳定性分析方法,是一种全局优化搜索算法,能够有效克服经典搜索方法易陷入局部极小值的缺点。从安全系数分布图可以看出,地震对安全系数分布情况影响很小,但扩大了安全系数低值区。     

Community-based disaster risk and vulnerability models of a coastal municipality in Bangladesh

Bangladesh is one of the most natural hazard-prone countries in the world with the greatest negative consequences being associated with cyclones, devastating floods, riverbank erosion, drought, earthquake, and arsenic contamination, etc. One way or other, these natural hazards engulfed every corner of Bangladesh. The main aim of this research paper is to carry out a multi-hazards risk and vulnerability assessment for the coastal Matlab municipality in Bangladesh and to recommend possible mitigation measures. To this aim, hazards are prioritized by integrating SMUG and FEMA models, and a participation process is implemented so as to involve community both in the risk assessment and in the identification of adaptation strategies. The Matlab municipality is highly vulnerable to several natural hazards such as cyclones, floods, and riverbank erosion. The SMUG is a qualitative assessment, while FEMA is a quantitative assessment of hazards. The FEMA model suggests a threshold of highest 100 points. All hazards that total more than 100 points may receive higher priority in emergency preparedness and mitigation measures. The FEMA model, because it judges each hazard individually in a numerical manner, may provide more satisfying results than the SMUG system. The spatial distributions of hazard, risk, social institutions, land use, and other resources indicate that the flood disaster is the top environmental problem of Matlab municipality. Hazard-specific probable mitigation measures are recommended with the discussion of local community. Finally, this study tries to provide insights into the way field research combining scientific assessments tools such as SMUG and FEMA could feed evidence-based decision-making processes for mitigation in vulnerable communities.     

土地利用变化对水文系统的影响研究

以秦淮河流域为研究区域，利用现代遥感、地理信息系统等多种数字技术，获取流域空间分布的下垫面信息和中间状态信息，细致地刻画了流域内的水文过程，建立了研究区域数字水文模型。利用所建立的数字水文模型，对定义的土地利用变化情景进行了模拟。模拟结果表明，模型可以定性和定量地反映各种土地利用变化对水资源系统尤其是对水量平衡和防洪情势的影响程度。     

Mapping susceptibility of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides using a probabilistic approach

To prepare a landslide susceptibility map is essential to identify hazardous regions, construct appropriate mitigation facilities, and plan emergency measures for a region prone to landslides triggered by rainfall. The conventional mapping methods require much information about past landslides records and contributing terrace and rainfall. They also rely heavily on the quantity and quality of accessible information and subjectively of the map builder. This paper contributes to a systematic and quantitative assessment of mapping landslide hazards over a region. Geographical Information System is implemented to retrieve relevant parameters from data layers, including the spatial distribution of transient fluid pressures, which is estimated using the TRIGRS program. The factor of safety of each pixel in the study region is calculated analytically. Monte Carlo simulation of random variables is conducted to process the estimation of fluid pressure and factor of safety for multiple times. The failure probability of each pixel is thus estimated. These procedures of mapping landslide potential are demonstrated in a case history. The analysis results reveal a positive correlation between landslide probability and accumulated rainfall. This approach gives simulation results compared to field records. The location and size of actual landslide are well predicted. An explanation for some of the inconsistencies is also provided to emphasize the importance of site information on the accuracy of mapping results.     

基于GIS的岩溶区土地利用的地形梯度分布研究——以酉阳县板溪乡为例

基于 RS 和 GIS 技术,采用地形位指数、分布指数和土地利用程度综合指数,探讨了2002、2011两年重庆市酉阳县板溪乡不同地形梯度土地利用结构的变化特征和定量分析了土地利用程度。结果显示：建设用地、耕地和水域对地形条件的选择性较强;建设用地主要聚集在海拔〈850 m、坡度〈15°176;的区域,耕地主要聚集在海拔〈1050 m 和坡度〈25°176;的区域,5和7级地形位为制约水域分布的地形条件;2011年,灌木林地在海拔650-1250 m、坡度〉15°176;的区域集中增加。总体上,该研究区的土地利用程度较高,但仍然存在耕地分布不合理的现象。     

Producing landslide-susceptibility maps for regional planning in data-scarce regions

In many of the lesser developed areas of the world, regional development planning is increasingly important for meeting the needs of current and future inhabitants. Expansion of economic capability, infrastructure, and residential capacity requires significant investment, and so efforts to limit the negative effect of landslides and other natural hazards on these investments are crucial. Many of the newer approaches to identifying and mapping relative landslide susceptibility within a developing area are hindered by insufficient data in the places where it is most needed. An approach called matrix assessment was specifically designed for regional development planning where data may be limited. Its application produces a landslide-susceptibility map suitable for use with other planning data in a Geographical Information System (GIS) environment. Its development also encourages collecting basic landslide inventory data suitable for site-specific studies and for refining landslide hazard assessments in the future. This paper illustrates how matrix assessment methodology was applied to produce a landslide-susceptibility map for the Commonwealth of Dominica, an island nation in the eastern Caribbean, and how with a follow up study the relative landslide-susceptibility mapping was validated. A second Caribbean application on Jamaica demonstrates how this methodology can be applied in a more geologically complex setting. A validated approach to mapping landslide susceptibility which does not require extensive input data offers a significant benefit to planning in lesser developed parts of the world.     

广州东濠涌流域城市洪涝灾害情景模拟与风险评估

绘制直观与可靠的城市洪涝灾害风险区划图,为城市防洪排涝相关部门决策提供参考依据。以广州市东濠涌流域为研究区域,综合考虑城市降雨、径流、地形和排水系统特性,构建基于InfoWorks ICM的一维-二维耦合城市洪涝仿真模型,模拟暴雨重现期为1年、5年、50年情景下的洪涝过程并获取致灾因子数据。调研分析区域的孕灾环境、承灾体和防灾减灾能力概况,结合层次分析法、评价等级和阈值划分等进行洪涝灾害风险评估。结果表明:城市洪涝仿真模型在一维排水系统和二维地面淹没模拟上均有较好的精度和可靠性,保证了致灾因子数据的可靠性;风险区划图能较好地反映流域的风险分布;随着重现期增大,较高、高风险区的面积显著增加,为防洪排涝重点关注区域。     

基于指标信度测度赋权的岩溶隧道水害危险性集对云评价研究

隧道水害危险性评价是一个非线性复杂的不确定系统问题。首先,针对其评价指标参数具有不确定性、模糊性和随机性等特点,在充分考虑岩溶隧道水害危险性评价指标关联性的基础上,提出了基于Jousselme距离的指标信度测度动态赋权理论,实现不同的实例、不同的指标实测值对整个系统的动态赋权,降低实际工作中由于指标实测值误差或错误导致评价结果偏差的风险;其次,运用云理论优化集对联系度,与所得权重加权得出系统综合云联系度,并与等级评价区间期望加权平均得到危险值,同时生成对应的等级云图判定隧道水害危险性等级,进而判定岩溶隧道水害危险状态,实现水害危险等级判定的可视化;再次,基于大气降水为岩溶隧道水害主要来源的视角,选取年均降水量、入渗系数、汇水面积、渗透系数和单位涌水量5项指标作为集对云评价指标,并以6条典型岩溶隧道为样本数据进行模型检验,发现评价结果与其他方法的评价结果相吻合,证明了该模型的可靠性和有效性。最后,将模型应用于京珠高速公路媲双坳岩溶隧道水害事故中,评价结果与实际情况相符,采取与评价等级相对应的处治措施,取得了良好的水害治理效果,表明该模型具有工程实用价值,评价流程可操作性强,为岩溶隧道水害的预测和防治提供参考。      

Enhancement of hydrothermal alteration zones using the spectral feature fitting method in Rabor area, Kerman, Iran

Rabor exploration area is in southeast of Kerman province, south of Urumieh-Dokhtar volcanic belt. Since there are many evidences of porphyry copper mineralization in this belt, prospecting and exploration of the intact and undiscovered places, especially the southern part of this belt, seems necessary. In this paper, use has been made of the “spectral feature fitting” (SFF) method to process ASTER satellite data (in Rabor exploratory area as a case study) for the identification and enhancement of hydrothermal alteration zones related to probable porphyry copper mineralization. The method is based on the comparison of absorption features in the image and the reference spectra. The distribution map of the indicator clay minerals, such as kaolinite, muscovite, illite, montmorillonite, alunite, pyrophyllite, dickite, chlorite, and epidote in Rabor exploratory area has been prepared with the help of this method. Identification and enhancement of alteration zones and overlaying Pay-Negin ore index on every individual zone reveal the capability and high efficiency of the SFF method in processing ASTER satellite data and preparing the distribution map of alteration minerals. Field and laboratory studies have shown that main alterations in this area are phyllic and argillic. These studies confirm the results obtained from remote sensing in the area.     

黄土丘陵小流域生态用水试验研究——气候和土地利用变化的影响

为探讨黄土高原地区的生态恢复,以半干旱黄土丘陵区安家沟小流域的气象、土壤水分、地形图和土地利用图(1982年和2002年)为源信息,分析了不同植被类型的蒸散量和生态用水量、流域生态用水量及其与气候和土地利用变化的关系。研究结果表明:(1)流域土地利用结构从1982-2002年间变化较大,农地(特别是梯田)增加较快,乔木林地急剧减少,主要表现为毁林、开荒和造田;(2)研究区内各种植被/土地利用类型的蒸散量和生态用水都极大地受控于气候(特别是降雨量)的影响,其年际差异较大;(3)不同植被/土地利用类型间的蒸散量和生态用水差异明显,在各个年份乔灌林的生态用水量均大于农作物和自然草地的蒸散量和生态用水量,但生态用水的差异程度小于蒸散量的差异程度;(4)以自然草地(即荒草地)为标准,农作物的蒸散量和自然草地接近,但乔灌林地的蒸散量和生态用水量均远高于自然草地,难于实现土壤水分平衡;(5)流域土地利用结构的变化(主要是强耗水植被的减少)减小了流域生态用水量,增强了流域的水分平衡能力。     

Morphological, bathymetric and sedimentological surveys used to assess the coastline defensive measures

This paper outlines the results of a study recently carried out on the western coast of the Sestri Levante peninsula (Eastern Liguria-Italy), aiming to assess the effects of newly accomplished defensive measures against coastal erosion: the accretion of the beach with natural sand and its protection with artificial structures orthogonal and parallel to the shoreline. Through conventional and more innovative methodologies (respectively single beam echo sounders and global positioning system) the research work has resulted in a new evaluation of the morphological, bathymetric and sedimentological features that make up this shoreline and its volumetrical change over the century. The survey and the research carried out on the studied area have enabled us to give a more detailed picture of the evolution of the littoral, to assess the possible use of “non-traditional” techniques of beach development monitoring, to evaluate the volumetric variations of the emerged and submerged beaches, to establish the sedimentological activity of the beach after the latest nourishment measures, and finally, to verify the effectiveness of the protection measures implemented on this coastline. The acquired data have been stored in the database and a geographic information system has been used to process, analyze, and evaluate the results. The main findings show that the latest intervention has brought about a new phase in the evolution of the coastline, giving rise to a new pseudo-balanced condition. The re-distribution of materials used for the beach nourishment, leads us to believe that the defence underwater barrier has only partially worked. The main conclusion for a correct coastal zone management underline the necessity to plan local and more wide monitoring during at least 8–10 consecutive years.     

区域化探样品元素测定几个问题的探讨

化探样品元素测定的要求,因任务的不同而异。区测与普查相比其要求不同。在普查(及详查)阶段,工作限定在较小的范围内,可能发现的矿种有限或可以预测,测定元素的数目也相应较少(约20种元素)．普查的测网较密,主要是圈出含量和衬度较高的异常内带,对灵敏度和准确度要求可以低些。区域化探主要是发现强度低、衬度低而范围大的区域地球化学异常,而且做为地球化学基础资料,是按分幅扫面,最后要拼缩成全国性的地球化学图。由于图幅间的对比拼接,要求较高的灵敏度和准确度。在区测中凡是能形成独立矿产的元素(包括稀有分散元素)以及有指示意义的伴生元素都要测定。区测化探不但用于找矿,目前日益为区域地质、自然区划、环境保护和农林畜牧的研究,提供重要的地球化学资料。目前测定的元素包括成岩特征元素在内已达39种。文中还探讨了在我国目前化验水平和能力的情况下,完成区测化探样品测定的方法和工作步骤。