Simulation of tornado over Orissa (India) on March 31, 2009, using WRF–NMM model

A severe thunderstorm produced a tornado (F3 on the Fujita-Pearson scale), which affected Rajkanika block of Kendrapara district of Orissa in the afternoon of March 31, 2009. The devastation caused by the tornado consumed 15 lives and left several injured with huge loss of property. The meteorological conditions that led to this tornado have been analyzed. An attempt is also made to simulate this rare event using Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) core of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system with a spatial resolution of 4 km for a period of 24 h, starting at 0000 UTC of March 31, 2009. The atmospheric settings resulted from synoptic, surface, upper air, satellite and radar echo studies were favorable for the occurrence of a severe thunderstorm activity over Rajkanika. The model-simulated meteorological parameters are consistent with each other, and all are in good agreement with the observation in terms of the region of occurrence of the intense convective activity. The model has well captured the vertical motion. The core of the strongest winds is shown to be very close to the site of actual occurrence of the event. The wind speed is not in good agreement with the observation as it has shown the strongest wind of only 20 ms⁻¹, against the estimated wind speed of 70 ms⁻¹. The spatial distributions as well as intensity of rainfall rates are in good agreement with the observation as model simulated 35.4 mm against the observed rainfall of 41 mm over Chandbali. The results of these analyses demonstrated the capability of high-resolution WRF–NMM model in simulation of severe thunderstorm events.     

青海省气象灾害的若干气候特征分析

利用1984-2007年气象灾害资料, 分析了青海省各类气象灾害的发生机率及时空分布特征.冰雹、 暴雨洪涝、 雪灾、 干旱和雷电及霜冻是青海省主要气象灾害, 连阴雨、 大风、 沙尘暴、 冻害、 渍涝、 高温、 龙卷风、 大雾为青海次要气象灾害.在地域分布上, 海南州和海东地区是青海气象灾害多发和危害严重地区; 玉树州和果洛州属于气象灾害发生较少和危害较轻地区.就行政县域而言, 西宁市湟中县、 海南州兴海县、 贵德县为青海气象灾害多发县, 果洛州班玛县、 久治县、 玉树州治多县则是青海省气象灾害较少和危害较轻县份.年内5-6月出现的气象灾害种类最多, 4-9月份是气象灾害高发期.在1984-2007年间, 暴雨洪涝、 冰雹、 雷电灾害发生次数呈增多趋势, 其他灾害发生次数增多趋势不甚明显.     

Weather hazards in Calabar — Nigeria

The major weather hazards in Calabar, a coastal town in Nigeria during both winter and summer hemispheres are discussed using meteorological data for 32 years (1951–1982). Results show that during the winter months of November to March, which are usually referred to as the dry season in Nigeria, frequency of occurrence of fog and harmattan dust haze is low. Summer patterns of precipitation are typical of the equatorial zone.Since 1980, poor visibility associated with fog and harmattan haze have become serious while high rates of erosion and flooding due to heavy rain are aggravated by human activities.     

Magnification of Flood Disasters and its Relation to Regional Precipitation and Local Human Activities since the 1980s in Xinjiang,Northwestern China

Analyses of flood disasters were conducted using 1950–2001 data on the flood-damaged areas of cropland, the annual number of flood disasters and the direct economic losses in Xinjiang. There is an increasing trend in flood disasters in Xinjiang during the second half of the 20th century, especially since the mid-1980s. Results of a non-parametric Mann–Kendall test on the cropland-flooded index time series revealed an abrupt change in the mid-1980s. The reasons are discussed with respect to changes in annual precipitation and regional human activities, by correlating cropland-flooded area to annual precipitation and three socio-economic parameters (population, cropland area and GDP). The correlation coefficients between the flood-damaged area and the annual precipitation during the periods 1961–1998 and 1987–1998 were substantially higher than during the period of 1961–1986. The correlation coefficients between the flood-damaged area and the three human activity parameters, however, were relatively high for the whole period of 1961–1998, but generally not significant for the 1961–1986 and 1987–1998 periods, separately. These suggest that the occurrence of flood disasters could be mainly induced by local human activities before the mid-1980s, and thereafter mainly by abnormal precipitation in Xinjiang. Meteorological and hydrological records showed that the number of heavy rainfall events and the frequency of rainstorm flood disasters increased since the 1980s. In addition, siltation of reservoirs and loss of flood control structures are partly responsible for the increase of flood-damaged area. These results suggest that the increasing trend in flood disasters in Xinjiang since the middle 1980s could be attributed, at least in part, to an increasing trend in annual precipitation.     

Winter fog over the Indo-Gangetic Plains: mapping and modelling using remote sensing and GIS

Almost every year in the winter months (December–February), the vast Indo-Gangetic Plain south of the Himalaya is affected by dense fog. This fog is considered as radiational fog, and sometime it becomes smog (when it mixes with smoke). The typical meteorological, topographic and increasing pollution conditions over the Indo-Gangetic Plain are perhaps the common contributing factors for fog formation. In the present study, the North Indian fog has been successfully mapped and analysed using NOAA-AVHRR satellite data. In the winter seasons of 2005–06, 2006–07 and 2007–08, the fog-affected area has been found to cover about 575,800 km², 594,100 km² and 478,000 km², respectively. Less fog in 2007–08 may be the consequence of high fluctuations in the meteorological parameters like temperature, relative humidity and wind speed as related to the prevailing synoptic regime for that season. The dissipation and migration pattern of fog in the study area has also been interpreted on the basis of the analysis of both meteorological and satellite data. Further analysis of the fog-affected area allowed identifying more fog-prone regions. Analysis of past fog-affected days and corresponding meteorological conditions enabled us to identify favourable conditions for fog formation viz. air temperature 3–13°C, relative humidity >87%, wind speed <2 m/s and elevation <300 m. Based on the observations of past fog formation and corresponding governing parameters, fog for few selected days could be predicted in hind-sight and later verified with NOAA images.     

Thunderstorm Hazard vulnerability for the Atlanta,Georgia metropolitan region

Most U.S. metropolitan regions have experienced urban “sprawl,” or the outward spreading of urban development from city centers. For cities lying in areas prone to severe weather, the sprawl phenomenon exposes greater numbers of developed areas and inhabitants to a variety of thunderstorm hazards. This study’s principal goal is to determine how urbanization growth patterns affect a region’s vulnerability to severe weather events. To assess how sprawl may impact vulnerability to tornadoes, hail, and convective wind events, an analysis examining potential loss may be utilized. This study employs two distinct approaches to examine how the Atlanta area’s rapid and extensive development during the latter half of the twentieth Century has affected its overall potential exposure to thunderstorm hazards. First, archived census data are used to estimate overall impacts from hypothetical significant tornado, nontornadic convective wind, and hail events occurring at different time periods throughout several locations in the Atlanta metropolitan region. Second, economic factors are integrated into the analysis, which assists in determining how these hypothetical severe event scenarios may have changed from a cost standpoint if they were to occur in 2006 as opposed to 1960.     

The assessment of drought relief by typhoon Saomai based on MODIS remote sensing data in Shanghai,China

Typhoons are one of the major natural hazards occurring frequently in Shanghai. The comprehensive assessment of drought relief by typhoon has become a major concern of scientists and government agencies in Shanghai, China. In this article, with the support of remote sensing data and the available data from local meteorological stations, the regional drought relief was investigated and the change of drought intensity was quantified by the typhoon “Saomai” between 5 and 8 August 2005. The precipitation anomaly calculated on the basis of recorded rainfall was adopted to analyze drought condition changes before and after the typhoon. Then, vegetation supply water index (VSWI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were used to monitor the drought relief due to the consecutive shortage of summer rainfall. Impact of typhoon on drought was compared by VSWI before and after typhoon Saomei. The results showed that the typhoon alleviated the drought of the vegetation by more than 70 %, based on the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, the ground temperature, relative humidity, high temperature, NDVI from Shanghai area. The result shows that MODIS remote sensing data are a useful quantitative monitoring tool in drought relief by local typhoons. More strategies are necessary to be adopted for prevention and mitigation of meteorological disaster in Shanghai in recent years.     

公元1644—1949年长江三角洲地区历史台风频次序列重建*

使用历史方志资料,根据台风发生时风雨潮洪的特点和文献记录中对它们的文字描述,建立了台风天气灾害现象筛选词语表,提取了台风相关信息,建立了长江三角洲地区公元1644—1949年历史台风灾害数据库。通过对现代台风过程中天气现象和可能造成灾害特征的分析,从历史台风描述词语、风雨潮现象发生的时间和空间特征、台风灾害链、风雨持续时间、台风风向、地形等方面制定了辨识历史台风的4条直接判别准则和6条辅助辨识依据,逐年辨识台风事件。与器测资料相对比,检验了历史台风事件重建的结果,公元1884—1949年间共重建出65次台风事件,相当于器测数的87.8％,两者相差1次以下的年数为55 a,占83.3％,说明利用方志资料重建台风频次序列的可靠性,为重建历史台风频次序列提供了方法支持,对研究长时间台风活动与气候变化的关系具有科学意义。     

Human fatalities from wind-related tree failures in the United States, 1995–2007

There were 407 deaths from wind-related tree failures in the United States, 1995–2007. The most common cause of the deadly fallen tree was a thunderstorm (41%), followed by nonconvective high winds (35%), tropical cyclones (14%), tornadoes (7%), and snow and ice (3%). Most (62%) of the deaths were males while the median age was 44 years. The most common location of the fatality was in a vehicle struck by the tree or a vehicle that crashed into a downed tree on the road (44%), followed by persons outdoors (38%), in mobile homes (9%), and in frame houses (9%). Persons killed by wind-related tree failures during tropical cyclones and tornadoes were more commonly at home (40%) when struck than those killed at home by thunderstorm and nonconvective high winds (13%). Seasonality of the deaths varied by weather type with deaths in thunderstorms clustered during May–August, nonconvective high winds October–April, tropical cyclones August–October, tornadoes in April and November, and snow and ice December–April. Regional patterns result from frequency of the wind events, population density, and tree cover. Suggestions are made for hazard reductions.     

气候变化背景下淮河流域场次暴雨事件时空演变分析

全球气候变化对暴雨洪涝等极端天气事件的发生产生了显著影响,识别气候变化背景下暴雨事件的时空变化特征是暴雨洪涝灾害综合应对的关键.以淮河流域为研究区,基于流域内229个气象站点1950-2012年的实测逐小时降水数据,遵循淮河流域实际情况对暴雨事件进行场次划分,并以此作为基础统计单元,借助地理信息系统平台,运用统计学方法并结合气象学理论,以场次暴雨事件开始时间、达到雨强峰值历时、场次平均暴雨历时及暴雨事件发生频次4个指标分析不同年代背景下淮河流域场次暴雨事件发生的过程变化及时空演变特征.结果表明：在气候变化的背景下,场次暴雨发生时间呈现宽幅化和极值化的变化趋势,暴雨发生时间出现了后移和双峰化的特征;暴雨历时及到达雨强峰值历时均呈现增加趋势,整个流域场次暴雨事件在1990s-2000s进入一个增加时期;全球性的气候变化使流域内暴雨事件发生的频次不断增加,历时不断增大,长历时高频次特征明显,尤其是近20 a来,淮河流域暴雨事件高发区域呈现出从流域部分地区向全流域扩张的趋势.     

Tornado hazards on June 23 in Jiangsu Province,China: preliminary investigation and analysis

This paper reported a tornado hazard happened on June 23, 2016, in Yancheng city, Jiangsu Province. The moving footprint of this huge tornado was from west to east. Shuoji, Chenliang, Goudun, Banhu, Xingou, Wutan towns in Funing district and Sheyang town in Sheyang district were severely hit by this tornado. This tornado along with rainstorm and hailstorm had claimed 99 lives and caused more than 3800 flats to collapse as well as damaged 48 high-voltage circuits. As the cold air from northwest met the subtropical high pressure system that forms over relatively cool water bodies (i.e., Indian and Pacific Oceans), such a powerful meteorological phenomenon was initiated. The strong connective airflow intensified the development of this tornado. Based on the preliminary investigation and analysis of this tornado, cost-effective timber structures with adequate anchorage of the framing to foundations and adequate connection between walls and roofs may be recommended to ensure occupants safety and reduce potential damage in these extreme wind events. Additionally, it is suggested to utilize early warning system along with geographical information system (GIS), Global Positioning System (GPS), and remote sensing (RS) (3S) to monitor and precast the occurrence of rainfall, hailstorm, and tornado hazards in future.

     

Energy production,economic growth and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emission: evidence from Pakistan

Extreme weather events present environmental and social challenges across the Eurasian steppe. In Mongolia much attention is given to drought and dzud (severe winter conditions) impact on rural livelihoods, landscapes and governance. A link between the two events, fostered by international and state agencies, speculates that drought leads to dzud; this has become the widely accepted doctrine. However, the relationship between the two events is assumed rather than analysed. Whilst there may be natural links between climate events, causality is more difficult to establish yet often claimed post-event. This paper stresses Mongolia’s destructive dzuds of 1999–2001 and 2009–2010 in examining drought frequency before dzud events. Findings question the hazard connection as just 3 of 32 examined dzud events were preceded by drought. Investigation did not document a relationship between the disasters; linkages between extreme events were implied rather than established. The human role in disaster also needs to be assessed as preparation, and response are key factors for mitigation. Study results identified a lack of causality between the disasters, suggesting more assiduous investigation of hazards is needed in Mongolia. This can clarify causal factors, identify risk and improve disaster mitigation strategies in Mongolia.     

Atlanta’s urban heat island under extreme heat conditions and potential mitigation strategies

The urban heat island (UHI), together with summertime heat waves, foster’s biophysical hazards such as heat stress, air pollution, and associated public health problems. Mitigation strategies such as increased vegetative cover and higher albedo surface materials have been proposed. Atlanta, Georgia, is often affected by extreme heat, and has recently been investigated to better understand its heat island and related weather modifications. The objectives of this research were to (1) characterize temporal variations in the magnitude of UHI around Metro Atlanta area, (2) identify climatological attributes of the UHI under extremely high temperature conditions during Atlanta’s summer (June, July, and August) period, and (3) conduct theoretical numerical simulations to quantify the first-order effects of proposed mitigation strategies. Over the period 1984–2007, the climatological mean UHI magnitude for Atlanta-Athens and Athens-Monticello was 1.31 and 1.71°C, respectively. There were statistically significant minimum temperature trends of 0.70°C per decade at Athens and −1.79°C per decade at Monticello while Atlanta’s minimum temperature remained unchanged. The largest (smallest) UHI magnitudes were in spring (summer) and may be coupled to cloud-radiative cycles. Heat waves in Atlanta occurred during 50% of the years spanning 1984–2007 and were exclusively summertime phenomena. The mean number of heat wave events in Atlanta during a given heat wave year was 1.83. On average, Atlanta heat waves lasted 14.18 days, although there was quite a bit of variability (standard deviation of 9.89). The mean maximum temperature during Atlanta’s heat waves was 35.85°C. The Atlanta-Athens UHI was not statistically larger during a heat wave although the Atlanta-Monticello UHI was. Model simulations captured daytime and nocturnal UHIs under heat wave conditions. Sensitivity results suggested that a 100% increase in Atlanta’s surface vegetation or a tripling of its albedo effectively reduced UHI surface temperature. However, from a mitigation and technological standpoint, there is low feasibility of tripling albedo in the foreseeable future. Increased vegetation seems to be a more likely choice for mitigating surface temperature.     

Large-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study of Wenzhou City, China

Based on the analysis and calculation of the hazard intensity of typhoon rainstorms and floods as well as the vulnerability of flood receptors and the possibility of great losses, risk scenarios are proposed and presented in Wenzhou City, Zhejiang Province, China, using the Pearson-III model and ArcGIS spatial analyst tools. Results indicate that the elements of risk scenarios include time–space scenarios, disaster scenarios, and man-made scenarios. Ten-year and 100-year typhoon rainstorms and flood hazard areas are mainly concentrated in the coastal areas of Wenzhou City. The average rainfall across a 100-year frequency is 450 mm. The extreme water depth of a 100-year flood is 600 mm. High-vulnerability areas are located in Yueqing, Pingyang, Cangnan, and Wencheng counties. The average loss rate of a 100-year flood is more than 50%. The greatest possible loss of floods shows an obvious concentration-diffusion situation. There is an area of about 20–25% flood loss of 6–24 million Yuan RMB/km² in the Lucheng, Longwan and Ouhai districts. The average loss of a 100-year flood is 12 million Yuan RMB/km², and extreme loss reaches 49.33 million Yuan RMB/km². The classification of risk scenario may be used for the choice of risk response priorities. For the next 50 years, the 10-year typhoon rainstorm-flood disaster is the biggest risk scenario faced by most regions of Wenzhou City. For the Yueqing, Ruian, and Ouhai districts, it is best to cope with a 100-year disaster risk scenario and the accompanying losses.     

Progress in Researches on Ensemble Forecasting of Extreme Weather Based on Numerical Models

Under the background of climate change, extreme weather events (e.g., heavy rainfall, heat wave, and cold damage) in China have been occurring more frequently with an increasing trend of induced meteorological disasters. Therefore, it is of great importance to carry out research on forecasting of extreme weather. This paper systematically reviewed the primary methodology of extreme weather forecast, current status in development of ensemble weather forecasting based on numerical models and their applications to forecast of extreme weather, as well as progress in approaches for correcting ensemble probabilistic forecast. Nowadays, the forecasting of extreme weather has been generally dominated by methodology using dynamical models. That is to say, the dynamical forecasting methods based on ensemble probabilistic forecast information have become prevailing in current operational extreme weather forecast worldwide. It can be clearly found that the current major directions of research and development in this field are the application of ensemble forecasts based on numerical models to forecasting of extreme weather, and its improvement through bias correction of ensemble probabilistic forecast. Based on a relatively comprehensive review in this paper, some suggestions with respect to development of extreme weather forecast in future were further given in terms of the issues of how to propose effective approaches on improving level of identification and forecasting of extreme events.     

Enhancing the capacities of natural hazard mitigation: a study on a typhoon curriculum module in high school earth science

This study is part of the hazards mitigation education program “research on teaching resources development and curriculum promotion on natural hazards mitigation at high school level.” This study demonstrated the implementation of a newly developed earth science curriculum module of typhoon hazards mitigation in a 10th grade high school classroom in Taiwan. The curriculum module design is a response to the calls for better natural hazards mitigation education in the school systems in Taiwan. Findings show that the curriculum module has resulted in the positive learning outcomes in both students’ learning achievement and attitude toward typhoon hazards mitigation. Findings also suggest that group discussion activities could enhance students’ thinking and experience sharing on the perceptions about typhoon hazards preparedness and mitigation. This study suggests that the hazards mitigation curriculum module to be added as a topic in the national high school curriculum guidelines.     

Interannual variability of Pacific summer waters in the Arctic Ocean

This work is devoted to study of interannual variability of characteristics of Pacific summer waters (PSWs) supplied into the AO in summer. The distribution area, volume, and heat content of PSWs have been calculated for the first time for the entire Arctic Basin in the periods of 1950–1989 and 2008–2009 demonstrating the presence of substantial interannual variability. From 1953 until 1983 a negative trend and since 1984 a positive trend have been observed; the latter lasted until 2009, when the heat content, volume, and distribution area of PSWs reached their maximal values for the entire period considered. It has been shown that PSW quantity in the Arctic Basin, identified by temperature, rather depends on the intensity of heat flux through the Bering Strait, and the calculated value for PSW life in the Arctic Basin is seven years.     

A fuzzy social vulnerability evaluation from the perception of disaster bearers against meteorological disasters

Natural Hazards - Because of climatic hazards and extreme weather events, meteorological disasters attract more and more attention of government, national, and international agencies. Every event...     

Tornado warning dissemination and response at a university campus

An online survey was completed by 2,921 students and employees at a large university following a tornado near-miss that required taking shelter. During this event, the university’s emergency alert messaging system was tested. The first alert message was received by over 66% of the sample within 15 min, and cell phones were the most common means of receiving this message—especially for students. Employees relied more on computer instant messaging than did students. Interpersonal communication was also important. The majority could correctly define tornado watch, tornado warning and shelter in place. Age and frequency of use of weather information were of mixed significance as predictors. Finally, over three quarters of respondents reported taking shelter during the event. Being female and being an employee made a respondent more likely to take shelter.     

东北暴雨的研究

系统性研究东北暴雨将提高对东北灾害性天气的认识,有利于加深对中国暴雨的全面研究。对我国气象工作者在东北暴雨研究方面的工作进行了综述,并回顾了影响东北暴雨的几类主要天气系统,分别为气旋、台风、冷涡,着重回顾了在过去几十年中东北冷涡暴雨方面研究的进展。指出目前待解决的问题是：影响东北地区台风暴雨强度、分布及转向问题;东北冷涡的内部结构特征及其发生发展的物理机制、东北冷涡下中尺度对流系统的结构特征与暴雨的关系;引发东北地区强暴雨过程的水汽源地等问题。这些问题需要通过今后深入和细致的加密观测分析研究,以及利用长时间卫星遥感观测资料和雷达资料的论证才能逐渐认识清楚。