Highway flood disaster risk evaluation and management in China

Flood disaster has become one of the most damaging natural disasters for the highway transportation all around the world, especially its destructive effects on highway infrastructures. In order to better understand the ruinous influence of flood disaster on highway transportation in China, this paper proposes an alternative evaluation index of highway flood disaster risk from three aspects, namely the disaster-causing factors, disaster-inducing environment, and disaster-bearing subjects. This paper also puts forward some targeted suggestions for the risk management, including two aspects: physical protection measurement and organization and management measurement. Moreover, this paper develops a highway flood disaster risk management system by using the ArcGIS technology.     

Highway flood disaster risk evaluation and management in China

Flood disaster has become one of the most damaging natural disasters for the highway transportation all around the world, especially its destructive effects on highway infrastructures. In order to better understand the ruinous influence of flood disaster on highway transportation in China, this paper proposes an alternative evaluation index of highway flood disaster risk from three aspects, namely the disaster-causing factors, disaster-inducing environment, and disaster-bearing subjects. This paper also puts forward some targeted suggestions for the risk management, including two aspects: physical protection measurement and organization and management measurement. Moreover, this paper develops a highway flood disaster risk management system by using the ArcGIS technology.

     

与水文气象、地质因素有关的几种自然灾害概念的辨析

阐述了地质灾害、山地灾害、山洪灾害等与水文气象和地质因素相关的自然灾害的概念及分类,比较三者内涵与外延的差异,对三种灾害防治工作中的一些共性问题作了初步探讨。研究表明：地质灾害、山地灾害和山洪灾害三者在概念、内涵及研究对象等方面有所不同,但主要内容是相同的。在三种灾害的研究与防治上,由各个部门管理模式不利于此类灾害的跨行业、跨部门协同研究及防灾救灾。     

Assessment of potential sediment disasters and resilience management of mountain roads using environmental indicators

In recent years, extreme rainfall events occur frequently, causing serious watershed sediment disasters, destroying mountain roads, and endangering the safety of residents' lives and property. This study aims to deal with the spatial change of potential sediment movement on the road slope pre-disaster and to screen disaster hot spots for early warning and control system. The conceptual model is used to simulate the distribution of primary and/or derived disasters on a watershed scale to assess the impact of sediment disasters caused by heavy rain event. Correlation analysis shows that the models in assessment of primary disaster and derived disaster are significantly correlated with the collapse ratio and disaster ratio, respectively. Since the primary disaster has been considered when calculating the derived disaster risk, the terrain subdivision along Provincial Highway 21 (Tai-21) is extracted to understand the derived sediment disaster on the road slope. The model can effectively evaluate the road sections prone to disasters. According to the risk level, the hot spot of road slope disasters and the management of disaster resilience are determined and can be the reference for disaster prevention and control.

     

自然灾害应急救灾的若干经验和建议

自然灾害应急救灾是社会危机管理的重要内容, 也是对一个国家综合国力、政府危机管理水平和社会精神文明建设成果的直接检验. 近几十年来, 我国应急救灾管理体制在应对数次大规模突发性自然灾害的实践中得到不断完善与发展. 通过多年参与应急救灾一线工作实践, 总结归纳了几点有助于救灾管理体制向着法制化、科学化、规范化和有序性方向发展的体会和建议, 以期能对灾害危机管理人员和受灾群众的自救互救工作有所启示.     

崩塌滑坡地质灾害风险排序方法研究

我国地质灾害具有点多面广的分布特点,而地质灾害风险管控人力和能力有限,因此需要开展地质灾害风险排序工作,筛选出优先管控的地质灾害隐患点,确保地质灾害风险管控对策实施的针对性和高效性。地质灾害风险排序的实质是运用定量化风险评价计算出每处隐患点的风险值,然后根据风险值开展排序工作。目前定量化风险评价模型多用于单个地质灾害点风险评价,并未应用于大范围地质灾害风险排序工作,且模型较为复杂,推广应用较难。在分析崩塌、滑坡地质灾害与其环境因素间的响应关系及规律的基础上,提取崩塌、滑坡地质灾害的主控环境因子与诱发因子,联合人口、物质、资源等易损性因子建立地质灾害风险评价指标体系;基于岩石工程系统相互作用矩阵与专家打分法确定各级地质灾害风险评价指标因子权重,构建地质灾害风险评分体系;并根据风险评价定义,提出了能够快速定量化的简易地质灾害风险计算模型。以贵州省98处地质灾害隐患点为例,开展模型应用验证,风险排序结果与灾害管理机构主观认识的实际风险一致,验证了本模型的合理性与有效性,提高了地质灾害风险管控能力与效率。     

重庆市自然灾害管理综合信息系统研究

从重庆市自然灾害情况及其信息管理现状分析入手,构建了重庆市自然灾害管理信息系统目标、整体设计和界面开发。重庆市自然灾害管理信息系统主要由4个模块组成：自然灾害数据库模块、远程通信管理模块、应用分析模型库模块及决策支持模块,它们通过一定的数据接口连结,在GIS平台上成为一体化系统,对重庆市自然灾害进行有效地管理和监测,从而减少自然灾害带来的经济损失。     

基于“3S”技术的地质灾害监测预警系统在我国应用现状

中国具有地质构造复杂,地貌类型多样,山区面积比例高等特点。近年来,在全球气候变化背景下,大量重大工程建设、不合理的资源开发和人类活动,导致各类地质灾害频发,严重影响了民生改善和小康社会建设进程,为地质灾害风险管控带来了挑战。开展地质灾害监测预警研究,能够为灾害风险管控、监测预警、防治减灾工作提供重要的科学依据。本文由中国地质灾害监测预警研究入手,着重分析讨论了我国地质灾害发育概况、监测预警既有成果和研究现状。然后从地质灾害监测预警的主要内容、主要技术方法和主要监测预警模型的发展和现状三个方面,讨论了"3S"技术在地质灾害监测预警中的研究现状和实践应用;最后详细讨论了目前基于"3S"技术的地质灾害监测预警平台在三峡库区和国家防灾减灾工作中的应用情况。本文最终结论认为,"3S"技术的地质灾害监测预警系统在各行业防灾减灾工作中的应用已日趋成熟,未来的地质灾害监测预警系统将以"3S"技术为基础,集观测、研究、风险评估、预报预警、预防治理为一体,有机结合各相关学科和大数据、人工智能、互联网+技术,通过对地质灾害的过程进行仿真模拟,分析诱发灾害的因素和发生强度,提高地质灾害预报的时间、地点、发生强...     

中国的巨灾风险与巨灾防范

巨灾是指对人民生命财产造成特别巨大损失,对社会经济发展产生严重影响的自然灾害事件。我国巨灾主要为特大洪水、大地震以及特大风暴潮、持续性大面积干旱。新中国建立以来,共有18个年份发生巨灾。巨灾频发的根本原因是,自然条件复杂多变,多种异常动力活动强烈;减灾基础薄弱,巨灾防范能力不足。未来时期,巨灾对国家安全和社会经济威胁依然严重,预测有11个高风险区,分布在东部沿海和部分中部地区。巨灾防范对策包括:提高认识、加强研究、建立管理系统及预警系统、制定应急预案、加强国际合作交流等。      

甘肃地质灾害风险管理思考

本文从5个方面分析了甘肃省地质灾害风险管控面临的形势,在此基础上提出了重构包括生命至上、天人合一、主动而为、依法防灾等地质灾害风险管理科学理念,提出了地质灾害风险管理应遵循资源整合与系统设计、预防优先与抗救结合、分级防治与风险共担、工程治理与避险并重、政府主导与社会参与、应急处置与长效防范6项原则,提出了今后甘肃地质灾害风险管控应从发挥制度在地质灾害风险管控引领作用、打造积极的防灾减灾文化、推进地质灾害防治全民能力提高、强化地质灾害风险管控科技支撑、构建地质灾害隐患动态风险评估体系、加强空天地一体化专群结合监测预警网络建设、加大地质灾害综合治理力度、扩大避险搬迁覆盖面和实施力度、地质灾害防治纳入国土风险管控体系等8个方面的着力点。     

Landslide susceptibility assessment along the southern coast of the Caspian Sea,Iran

China is a disaster-prone country, and these disasters have diverse characteristics, a wide scope of distribution, high frequency, and large losses. China has advanced community-based disaster management (CBDM) capacity. Community is the bottom unit of the society, and CBDM is the foundation of the entire society’s disaster management system. A series of domestic major emergency incidents and disasters and international disaster reduction activities have promoted the formation of the CBDM concept, the implementation of capacity building activities, and the improvement of policy and laws. Thus far, the CBDM system has been preliminarily formed in China, and relevant rules and regulations have been promulgated and implemented. Furthermore, disaster reduction activities, such as the construction of the national comprehensive disaster reduction community and national safe community, have been promoted nationwide. As a result, China’s disaster-resistance capacity has largely improved. However, it is only in the initial phase of CBDM implementation, which remains plagued by several challenges and problems, such as the deficiency of community resident participation, management organizations, disaster risk assessment methods, NGO development, and safety culture cultivation.     

近年来我国泥石流灾害时空分布规律及成因分析

中国是世界上遭受泥石流灾害最为严重的国家之一,灾害发生数量大,造成的人员伤亡和财产损失较高,同时监测和防治难度极大。本文收集了2005-2015年间发生的全部泥石流灾害共计10 927起,对灾害发生时间、地点、灾害规模、灾害损失以及灾害成因进行了统计,发现泥石流灾害具有近年来发生数量明显下降、集中分布在西部和东南沿海省份、特大型和大型灾害损失最为惨重等时空分布特点及成灾特点。通过对具体案例剖析后发现,预警技术有待提高、山区城镇建设场地选址不当、多年来泥石流灾害防治标准偏低、震区灾害防治形势严峻、灾害防治意识淡薄为我国泥石流灾害危害严重的主要原因。同时,我国正在积极应对泥石流灾害的威胁,如：主动提高震区泥石流灾害防治标准,研发新型的拦挡技术;研发具备实时可视化等功能的监测预警系统,提高监测预警效率;提高群众防灾意识,大力发展群测群防监测预警体系;转变观念,将泥石流灾害防治与城镇化发展规划有机结合。     

Research on the gully forming in the gully region of Yanhe River Basin and process of geological disasters

In recent years, the frequency of geological disasters gradually increases in the gully region of the Loess Plateaus centred with Yanhe River Basin. The research on the forming of the geological disasters in gully region and the disaster process will help us further understand the development of geological disasters and the disaster process. According to the detailed survey of geological disasters in Yan’an City, the river and gully erosion is the main natural predisposing factor that caused the geological disasters in the river gully region. In the forming of ditches and gullies, the surface water system changes the stress form of the original slope and reduces the strength combination of the slope in ways of water erosion and gravity erosion. Gully’s forming stage and stratigraphic contact form have some influence on the geological disasters and disaster process.     

海洋地质灾害灾情评估进展与方法

对海洋地质灾害进行评估意义重大,但目前对海洋地质灾害灾情评估的研究有待加强。已有研究方法通过建立评估指标体系,运用系统工程理论和层次分析方法,确定灾情等级,为减灾防灾提供依据。灾情评估模型有助于快速地进行灾情评估。本文认为,应该加强对海洋地质灾害的基础性研究工作,包括灾害的成因机制、分布规律、发展趋势、致灾因素、危害程度、预防措施等方面。     

学习谷德振先生学术思想,促进工程地质学科发展

谷德振先生是我国著名的工程地质学家,也是中国工程地质的奠基人。他德高望重、学术精深,且谦逊、诚挚和富有担当精神;他对后辈关怀备至,注重培养和身教言教,是青年人学习的榜样。谷德振先生是中国地质学会工程地质专业委员会的首届主任,在他的带领下,使我国工程地质学科得到迅速发展。特别是他创立的岩体结构控制论极大地推动了20世纪我国工程地质学科的发展,为我国工程地质学科发展和重大工程建设做出了重要贡献。岩体结构控制论已成长为一巨树,形成许多分支,如岩体结构分类、岩体结构力学、工程地质力学、反分析法等。南京大学优势面研究组学习他的结构控制论,找到自己的学科研究方向,以结构面为研究对象,通过30余年努力,形成一种新的研究模式和方法优势面理论。我们将优势面理论视为结构控制论生长的一个分支。21世纪,以结构控制论的学术思想为指导,引入纳米地质与纳米技术,探索宏观工程地质的自然规律和更微观规律的内在关系;在地质灾害防治与预测研究中,应注意灾害链问题,加强灾害类型、形成机理研究,给出治理对策措施。同时,应注重灾害防治决策管理信息系统研究。今年正值谷德振先生诞辰100周年,我们想起往事,记忆犹新。我们满怀敬佩和感激,撰写此文以表怀念之情。     

辽宁省东南部地区地质灾害风险性评价

辽宁省东南部地区幅员辽阔,自然环境优越,交通方便。但随着近年来人类工程和经济活动的加剧,自然生态环境遭到严重破坏,地质灾害呈现严重态势,给人民生命财产和经济建设带来极大危害和巨大损失。本文围绕地质灾害灾情构成,逐层递进、相互联系,构成多层次的地质灾害灾情评估系统。通过地质灾害风险性评价,全面认识该区地质灾害灾情程度,为制定区域减灾规划、部署防灾工程以及进行区域国土整治与资源开发等提供基础数据。     

镇江地质灾害治理工程项目管理中的问题与对策探讨

地质灾害治理工程项目管理是地质灾害管理的具体体现和实施过程,其基本任务是根据地质灾害管理目标和管理方法,组织实施防治工程,保障取得预期的减灾成果。就镇江市地质灾害治理工程项目管理目前现状,从规范文件、招标机构、管理工具、管理经验、干扰因素、风险评价、人员素质等方面进行粗浅分析,并针对存在的问题提出相应的对策,借以提高镇江市地质灾害治理工程项目管理的能力和水平,以便今后地质灾害治理项目管理更好地完善和发展。     

Relationships between typhoon types and debris flow disasters in Taiwan

Frequent debris flow disasters caused by heavy precipitation during the annual typhoon season are some of the most serious disasters in Taiwan. This study is on the debris flow disasters associated with the typhoons that hit Taiwan between 1986 and 2004. Typhoon data and records of debris flow disasters available for Nantou and Hualien counties in Taiwan were analyzed. The paths and rainfall characteristics of typhoons were found to have a great effect on the debris flows at these locations. Accordingly, the typhoons were grouped into four major types based on their paths and related disasters. The relationships between rainfall intensity and accumulation and debris flow are discussed for the four major typhoon types. The information may form the basis for providing useful indicators for disaster management.     

基于信息量-逻辑回归耦合模型的玛纳斯河流域地质灾害易发性评价

新疆地质环境复杂多样、生态环境脆弱敏感,在极端天气及重大工程的扰动诱发下,地质灾害呈现频发、多发、高发态势,重大地质灾害风险的形势严峻复杂。新疆地质灾害以崩滑流为主,根据易发性划分为高、中、低3个等级。本文从地质灾害调查评价、监测预警、综合防治、应急响应、社会参与、学术研究等方面系统地总结了近年来新疆在地质灾害早期识别、预警防控、临灾避险等方面取得的显著成效。针对目前新疆地质灾害防控中存在的隐患早期识别能力不足、预警基础薄弱、理论创新不足、治理体系不够健全等问题,提出构建新疆地区地质灾害防控新机制的设想;基于重大工程扰动对新疆地质灾害进行了重点防治分区;提出构建以制度组织体系、源头管控体系、综合治理体系、科技创新体系为主要内容的新疆地质灾害防控体系,为积极防范和科学应对新疆地质灾害提供了新思路。     

Emergency countermeasures against marine disasters in Qingdao City on the basis of scenario analysis

Storm surge, sea wave, sea ice, red tide and harmful marine creature bloom are main marine disasters occurring in the coast and offshore areas of Qingdao City, Shandong Province, China. Marine disasters mentioned above can be divided into five categories, namely, marine meteorological disasters, marine hydrological disasters, marine geological disasters, marine ecological disasters and man-made marine disasters. Over the past century, the marine disasters in the coast and offshore areas of Qingdao City have caused great economic losses and casualties. In recent years, some problems still exist in emergency management against marine disasters in Qingdao City, such as inaccurate predictions of disasters, untimely early warning and lack of social participation in the emergency management. On the basis of scenario analysis, the authors try to predict different possible scenarios of marine disasters at different early warning levels and propose some optimized emergency countermeasures against marine disaster in Qingdao City. Results of our research can provide a theoretical basis for the revision and improvement of emergency plans and thus guarantee timely and effective emergency management actions against marine disasters in Qingdao City.