Disaster prevention,disaster preparedness and local community resilience within the context of disaster risk management in Cameroon

This paper presents a simulation of three components of near-field ground shaking recorded during the main shock at three stations of the September 16, 1978, Tabas (M _w = 7.4), Iran, earthquake, close to the causative fault. A hybrid method composed of a discrete wavenumber method developed by Bouchon (Bouchon in Bull Seismol Soc Am 71:959–971, 1981; Cotton and Coutant in Geophys J Int 128:676–688, 1997) and a stochastic finite-fault modeling based on a dynamic corner frequency proposed by Motazedian and Atkinson (Bull Seismol Soc Am 95:995–1010, 2005), modified by Assatourians and Atkinson (Bull Seismol Soc Am 97:935–1949, 2007), is used for generating the seismograms at low (0.1–1.0 Hz) and high frequencies (1.0–20.0 Hz), respectively. The results are validated by comparing the simulated peak acceleration, peak velocity, peak displacement, Arias intensity, the integral of velocity squared, Fourier spectrum and acceleration response spectrum on a frequency-by-frequency basis, the shape of the normalized integrals of acceleration and velocity squared, and the cross-correlation with the observed time-series data. Each characteristic is compared on a scale from 0 to 10, with 10 being perfect agreement. Also, the results are validated by comparing the simulated ground motions with the modified Mercalli intensity observations reported by reconnaissance teams and showed reasonable agreement. The results of the present study imply that the damage distribution pattern of the 1978 Tabas earthquake can be explained by the source directivity effect.     

Social and environmental regulation in rural China: bringing the changing role of local government into focus

China’s rapid economic growth following the 1978 reforms has resulted in significant economic, social and environmental change. These reforms and their outcomes have been subjected to considerable scrutiny. However, relatively little research has been directed towards the relationship between the changing role of local government, which has itself been subject to substantial restructuring, and the local mediation of the social and environmental impacts of rapid economic growth. This paper investigates the local manifestation of social and environmental change in Zhejiang Province. In particular, it considers the changing role of local government in the regulatory process, and features a case study of Huzhou Municipality. A synthesis of the factual knowledge and perceptions of 48 key-informants from government and public institutions and rural industries is used as the platform for an analysis of the changing nature of local regulation with respect to the provision of key public services (health care and education) and environmental protection (water pollution control). The results reveal the ability of local government to selectively implement national and provincial policies in light of local priorities, which is taken as indicative of the emergence of local agency within local development processes. The case study suggests a need to re-evaluate conventional wisdom on the absence of autonomy at local levels of government in China, particularly as it relates to the continued devolution of administrative responsibility and the emergence of increasingly powerful economic interests.     

The spaces of modernisation: Outcomes, indicators and the local government modernisation agenda

The modernisation of local government has attempted to reinvent central-local government relations by offering freedoms and flexibilities to facilitate the governance of local issues. At the same time, a shift to outcome focussed targets as a new form of governmental rationality allows central government to delimit these opportunities. Drawing on aspects of governmentality and actor-network theory, the paper explores the tensions between these modes of government. It argues that outcome focussed targets circumscribe the limits of local governance by offering a despatialised technology of government. Using a case study of Local Public Service Agreements, the paper highlights the problems 10 English rural local authorities have experienced in their attempts to construct and negotiate a series of local policy targets with central government. The paper shows how the spatial limitations of statistical governance conspire against the construction of targets which reflect local policy priorities. In conclusion we consider the extent to which these limitations are a deliberate act of control and consider the implications for agency within networks of governmentality.     

Natural hazards,disaster management and simulation: a bibliometric analysis of keyword searches

Natural Hazards - Disasters affect millions of people annually, causing large numbers of fatalities, detrimental economic impact and the displacement of communities. Policy-makers, researchers and...     

重庆市自然灾害管理综合信息系统研究

从重庆市自然灾害情况及其信息管理现状分析入手,构建了重庆市自然灾害管理信息系统目标、整体设计和界面开发。重庆市自然灾害管理信息系统主要由4个模块组成：自然灾害数据库模块、远程通信管理模块、应用分析模型库模块及决策支持模块,它们通过一定的数据接口连结,在GIS平台上成为一体化系统,对重庆市自然灾害进行有效地管理和监测,从而减少自然灾害带来的经济损失。     

Great earthquakes,seismicity gaps and potential for earthquake disaster along the Himalaya plate boundary

Analysis of the space-time patterns of seismicity in the Himalaya plate boundary has established the existence of three seismic gaps:

• 1.(1) The “Kashmir gap” lying west of the 1905 Kangra earthquake;
• 2.(2) the “Central gap”, situated between the 1905 Kangra and the 1934 Bihar earthquakes;
• 3.(3) the “Assam gap” between the 1897 and 1950 Assam earthquakes.

This study has shown that the above great earthquakes were preceded as well as followed by long periods (⩾ 19 years) of decreased levels of seismic activity in the epicentral regions. Remarkable decrease in the seismicity following the year 1970 has been observed in the western half of the Central gap as well as in the Assam gap. Local seismic investigation in the Assam gap confirms this feature and the seismicity suggests the existence there of an asperity.The local seismic investigations in Garhwal Himalaya have shown that the small earthquakes are confined to the upper 6–8 km of the crust and may have strike-slip motions. These earthquakes occur in a region where teleseismically recorded events were few.     

Formal education and disaster response of children: evidence from coastal villages in Indonesia

Natural Hazards - Although children are exposed to a high mortality risk during disasters, what determines their disaster response, especially during earthquakes, remains largely unexplored. The...     

Large-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study of Wenzhou City, China

Based on the analysis and calculation of the hazard intensity of typhoon rainstorms and floods as well as the vulnerability of flood receptors and the possibility of great losses, risk scenarios are proposed and presented in Wenzhou City, Zhejiang Province, China, using the Pearson-III model and ArcGIS spatial analyst tools. Results indicate that the elements of risk scenarios include time–space scenarios, disaster scenarios, and man-made scenarios. Ten-year and 100-year typhoon rainstorms and flood hazard areas are mainly concentrated in the coastal areas of Wenzhou City. The average rainfall across a 100-year frequency is 450 mm. The extreme water depth of a 100-year flood is 600 mm. High-vulnerability areas are located in Yueqing, Pingyang, Cangnan, and Wencheng counties. The average loss rate of a 100-year flood is more than 50%. The greatest possible loss of floods shows an obvious concentration-diffusion situation. There is an area of about 20–25% flood loss of 6–24 million Yuan RMB/km² in the Lucheng, Longwan and Ouhai districts. The average loss of a 100-year flood is 12 million Yuan RMB/km², and extreme loss reaches 49.33 million Yuan RMB/km². The classification of risk scenario may be used for the choice of risk response priorities. For the next 50 years, the 10-year typhoon rainstorm-flood disaster is the biggest risk scenario faced by most regions of Wenzhou City. For the Yueqing, Ruian, and Ouhai districts, it is best to cope with a 100-year disaster risk scenario and the accompanying losses.     

Medium-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study of Pingyang County, Wenzhou, China

A series of empirical studies involving typhoon rainstorm and flood risk scenario analysis were carried out on a medium spatial scale, covering Pingyang County. Considering a rainstorm/water-logging conversion process, active flooding submergence and per unit area values (million yuan/km²), two typical risk scenarios (50- and 100-year frequency) were simulated and analyzed. The study revealed that high-risk areas distributed across the towns of Aojiang, Qiancang and Xiaojiang, with a maximum submerged depth of 4.61 m for a 100-year flood hazard. In the case of a disaster loss rate >65 %, the potential maximum loss could be more than 10 million yuan/km². For medium-scale disaster risk, more attention must be paid to catastrophic events, which have a low probability of occurrence but would induce great losses. An amended risk formula could determine the degree of priority for responses to hazards of equal risk value better. In Pingyang County, the 50-year flood risk for Kunyang, Aojiang, Qiancang and Xiaojiang is greater than that of 100-year events for the next 50 years. However, these areas should give priority to their responses to 100-year disaster events during the next 100 years. In addition, the attention of disaster risk should vary in different spatial regions.     

Local government, local economic development and quality of life in Poland

The establishment of local self-government was a key part of the post-1989 transformation in East and Central Europe. Local government in both Western and East and Central Europe has increasingly been expected to play a role in local economic development (LED). Local government is one important agent in the complex processes of building 'institutional thickness' to ensure the development of local economies and the quality of life of inhabitants. This paper presents the results of a national postal questionnaire survey of the LED role of the lowest level of local self-government in Poland, the gmina or commune. The paper establishes a baseline of knowledge regarding: the local economic problems faced by communes; their attitudinal, strategic and organisational responses; and the main factors which are hindering the communes' LED role. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Modeling the integrated roles of insurance and retrofit in managing natural disaster risk: a multi-stakeholder perspective

This paper introduces a new modeling framework to understand and improve regional natural disaster risk management in the USA, including the interactions among key stakeholders and between the two important risk management mechanisms of insurance and retrofit. The framework includes a stochastic programming optimization to represent insurer decisions, which interacts with a utility-based model of individual homeowners’ decisions to insure and/or retrofit. Reinsurer and government roles are represented as inputs, and the decision models are integrated with a detailed regional catastrophe loss estimation model. This modeling framework is applied to a full-scale, realistic case study for hurricane risk to residential buildings in Eastern North Carolina. Several alternative system configurations are considered that affect the incentives for adoption of alternative risk management methods. They include providing a government subsidy for insured homeowners to encourage retrofit, providing both a government subsidy and insurance rebate to reduce retrofit costs, and mandating insurance purchase with a cap on insurance premiums. For each configuration, outcomes are presented from the perspectives of all key stakeholders—primary insurer, homeowners (insured and uninsured, in high- and low-risk areas), reinsurers, and the government. Results suggest that it is possible to design policies in which all stakeholders can be better off simultaneously. Retrofit incentives for insured homeowners can be effective in linking and strengthening the benefits of retrofit and insurance. Mandatory insurance coupled with capped profit loading factors and possibly retrofit rebates from the insurer to the homeowner can also reduce overall system risk.     

自然灾害风险防控和应急救援平台构建与实践

为了适应当前常态减灾与非常态救灾情景下信息化管理的深度应用,提出一种面向自然灾害突发事件应对过程的业务平台的设计方案。采用数据交换方法,实现多部门之间的信息共享;建立自然灾害综合数据库,实现统一数据源管理和实时更新;采用智能移动终端推送自然灾害信息,实现政府-社会-公众多元协同;基于网络地理信息系统实时显示自然灾害风险状况,实现自然灾害风险监测预警、综合研判和应急指挥应用。该平台有效提升了自然灾害风险防控的管理水平和应急管理的工作效率,真正实现了跨领域、多灾种、全流程的自然灾害风险闭环管理和精准管控的目标。     

A novel strategy to determine the insurance and risk control plan for natural disaster risk management

This study presents an extended framework for the analysis of economic effects of natural disaster risk management. It also attempts to define and evaluate the optimal insurance arrangements. A model, the economic utility constrained-maximization model, is proposed. The purpose of this study is to establish a strategy for determining an insurance and risk control plan in which consideration is given to balancing the economic effects (e.g., decrease in costs due to damage) by disaster mitigation. Furthermore, these values are compared with risk control actions for purposes of prioritization, to provide data to help evaluate the benefit of each risk control action. Disaster insurance policy premiums in contrast are based on actuarial data taken from situations in which risk control measures are not employed. This can make such contracts unfair to responsible enterprise managers who must take risk control measures. This represents an unfair aspect of insurance policies. Enterprise managers should be able to determine the optimum arrangement between natural disaster risk control and insurance given their budget limitations. The optimal strategies aim at the best applicability and balance between risk control and insurance capability for the enterprise manager. Risk control measures can generate several risk control options for enterprise managers. Premium discounts by insurers are given in this model.     

The role of emergency medical teams in disaster response: a summary of the literature

Natural Hazards - In the aftermath of natural disasters, emergency medical teams (EMTs) are dispatched to help local rescue efforts. While some impact evaluations of EMTs are available, few...     

The cost of social vulnerability: an integrative conceptual framework and model for assessing financial risks in natural disaster management

Natural Hazards - Groups that are unable to prepare for disasters, or to recover from damage on their own, have a high dependency on government services, which inevitably leads to more government...     

Post-disaster cross-nation mutual aid in natural hazards: case analysis from sociology of disaster and disaster politics perspectives

Owing to natural climate change, disaster has become a frequent challenge for every nation. To restore social order quickly after disasters strike, cross-nation mutual aid, as an international reciprocal gesture of goodwill, should be able to cross borders and achieve its mission. Unfortunately, practice does not follow theory. Dilemmas that make it difficult for cross-nation mutual aid to accomplish its goals may transform into severe challenges. This study aims to identify possible solutions to difficulties mainly through thematic analysis of eight major disaster events, informed by perspectives from emergency management, sociology of disaster, and disaster politics. Moreover, this study explores these issues via the “one core, three operations” framework constructed by assistance provider, assistance receiver, and victims to provide possible strategies regarding mechanisms, politics, forms, and times, respectively.