A new viewpoint of hazard assessment and management for Taiwan��s insurance issues

High rates of urbanization, environmental degradation, and industrial development in disaster-prone areas have all served to increase the extent of damage following catastrophes. Recently, losses from environmental hazards have escalated, which has resulted in a noticeable change in policy, with more emphasis on loss reduction through mitigation, preparedness, and recovery programs. This study focuses on natural disaster management in which the direct risks are posed by the natural disasters themselves. This paper presents a review of issues surrounding natural disaster risk control and insurance in Taiwan. It proposes the use of background information concerning risk control strategies as well as earthquake, typhoon, and flood insurance in Taiwan. Finally, an insurance case study is utilized to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology.     

Reduction of future disaster damages by learning from disaster experiences

This paper examines the effect of a country’s own past disaster experiences and nearby countries’ past experiences on subsequent disaster damage. We use global disaster data from 1990 to 2010, which include disaster-related death tolls for both natural and technological disasters that are further divided into sub-categories. Overall, we find evidence of a reduction effect of past disaster damage on future disaster damage. More detailed analyses show that an adaptation effect seems to be present for certain combinations of disaster types and levels of economic development. The results show that a country’s own experiences reduce future damage for natural disasters but that the marginal effect is larger for lower-income countries. On the other hand, for technological disasters, a robust impact of experiences was found only in higher-income countries. In terms of the disaster experiences of nearby countries, the adaptation effect was found only for natural disasters, and the marginal impact was relatively higher for higher-income countries.     

Characterizing the spatial distribution of typical natural disaster vulnerability in China from 2010 to 2017

Natural disaster vulnerability can intuitively reflect the susceptibility of an area to environmental changes. Better understanding the spatial distribution of natural disaster vulnerability is a critical process for taking effective adaptation and management. Although significant achievements have been made in disaster vulnerability, few studies are known about natural disaster vulnerability at the national scale, especially from the typical natural disaster events in China. In this study, with normalizing selected indicators and calculating vulnerability index, we analyzed the spatial distribution of natural disasters vulnerability during 2010–2017 using the geospatial techniques. The results showed that natural disaster vulnerability has certain spatial differences, but different natural disaster can occur in the same area during the study period. Drought disaster can occur in all regions of China, especially in Inner Mongolia. Flood disaster is mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River Basin. The wind and storm disaster is chiefly in the northern regions in China. The freezing disaster is widely distributed in China. Furthermore, the regions with low vulnerability were primarily distributed in the eastern coastal region, indicating that the rapid development of economy and technology can resist or mitigate natural disaster to a certain extent. This study offers a solution to study natural disasters and provides scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation actions.

     

Regional disaster risk evaluation of China based on the universal risk model

A comprehensive understanding and scientific evaluation of natural disasters risk is not only the basis of disaster prevention and mitigation, but also the urgent needs of the economic and social sustainable development. Disaster risk evaluation index system in accordance with Chinese reality was constructed, which contains 5 second-class indicators and 28 third-class indicators; moreover, the universal risk evaluation model was designed combined with nonlinear damage evaluation method; then, the disaster risk of China’s 31 provinces was evaluated, as well as the urban risk ranking and risk map of 31 provinces were presented. The evaluation results can make us see the urban risk situation clearly and intuitively, which helps the related department to clearly focus on their work, as well as provides theoretical guidance for the national and local disaster prevention and mitigation planning.     

极端地质灾害与风险

极端地质灾害与风险是本文提出的一个概念.在地球演进过程中,极端地质灾害被认为是小概率事件.但这并不意味这种小概率的自然灾害只发生在遥远的未来,也不能排除这种事件发生在我们现在或者未来不久几代人中间.2008年汶川8.0级强震,吞噬了数万人的生命,大量的建筑被损毁,就是这种极端自然灾害的典型实例.它再一次向人类发出警告,...     

Environmental disasters in social context: toward a preventive and precautionary approach

The paper examines relations between natural hazards and social conditions in disaster, and problems of their integration in disaster management. This must be done against a background of ever-increasing numbers of disasters. The initiating roles and impacts of environmental hazards are acknowledged. However, expanding losses are not explained by increased geophysical risks. To the extent that scientific knowledge or engineering and planning skills are involved, the problems seem more one of (in)effective deployment than major deficiencies. Social analyses suggest the scope of today’s disasters follows primarily from greater concentrations of vulnerable people, exposed in dangerous situations, and lacking adequate protections. Firstly, the question of disaster causality is revisited as a problem of damage diagnostics. A basis is developed from the findings of formal disaster inquiries. Despite their limitations, well-conducted inquiries offer unusually comprehensive anatomies of the social and physical conditions of disasters. They demonstrate and trace out the interplay of environmental, societal, technological, and institutional components of emergencies. In the examples described, environmental hazards are investigated in great detail. Nevertheless, societal preconditions are shown to be more critical. Inadequacies in emergency preparedness, performance, and post-disaster response are highlighted, and for those most at risk. The conclusions present major challenges for the agent-specific view of disasters, and for disaster management preoccupied with natural forces, uncertainty, and emergency responses. Rather, a view of disaster causality emerges emphasizing avoidable failures of preventive, protective, and intervention measures. Evidence is cited to show this is increasingly relevant in so-called natural disasters lacking such inquiries. The discussion considers the relevance of a preventive and precautionary approach in this context. The histories of accident, disease, fire, and crime prevention support arguments for greater attention to context-specific environmental and societal aspects of risk. Aligning disaster management more closely with preventive priorities depends upon a much greater focus on people, places, and livelihoods most at risk, reversing the social processes that put them at risk. It requires listening to their voices and concerns, recognizing and bolstering their resilience. Much more can and should be done to disseminate the protections, from building regulations to insurance, that actually do save so many others in the disasters that happen. As such, the case for greater attention to issues of governance and social justice is strengthened.     

Social and Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters

Economic and social development throughout the world is frequently interrupted by extreme events. The Pacific Rim is particularly vulnerable to natural disasters, thus to social and economic losses. Although disaster events impact both developed and developing countries, in the latter, they can cause a sharp increase in poverty. As disasters pose an important challenge to the development of the Pacific Rim, it is important to assess their global, regional, economic, and social impacts. Most economic assessments of the impacts of disasters have concentrated on direct losses—that is, the financial cost of physical damage. Equally important are indirect and secondary impacts of disasters, including the destruction of communities and their negative impacts on families. The challenges posed by potential disasters in the Pacific Rim countries require rapid action, and also an energetic risk-management strategy. To help reduce those negative impacts, countries need an overall evaluation of their risks, including: (i) risk identification, (ii) risk reduction, and (iii) risk transfer. It is expected that concerted action on risk management will help create an increased awareness of the economy—wide significance of natural disasters and the problems they pose for long—term development. Accordingly, this growing awareness will lead to an increased resilience in the countries of the Pacific Rim.     

保定西部矿山泥石流特征与防治措施

地质灾害的形成原因有自然的也有人为的,矿山泥石流就是由人为因素为主导,在矿山一带沟谷内形成的。由于物源堆存量和地域短时降水量大小的不同,使灾害发生的规模和对附近居民带来的影响也各不相同。该文以保定西部矿山泥石流特征为例,弄清地质灾害的发生机制和发展规律,对防灾减灾、环境保护及灾害治理工作有着极其重要而深远的意义。     

Reducing hazard vulnerability through local government engagement and action

The concept of a natural hazard is a human construct. It is the interaction with human communities and settlements that defines a natural phenomenon as a natural hazard. Thus the end point of hazard mitigation and hazard vulnerability assessment must involve an attempt to reduce, or mitigate, the impact of the natural hazard on human communities. The responsibility to mitigate hazard impact falls primarily upon governments and closely connected non-government and private institutional agencies. In particular, it is most often local government that takes the responsibility for safeguarding its own communities, infrastructure and people. Hazard vulnerability of specific local communities is best assessed by the local government or council, which then faces the responsibility to translate that assessment into community education and infrastructural safeguards for hazard mitigation. This paper illustrates the process of local government engagement in hazard mitigation in Australia, through the Natural Disaster Risk Management Studies, as a first step towards natural disaster reduction.     

青藏高原多灾种自然灾害综合风险管理

青藏高原是中国自然灾害多发、频发重点区域,区内地震、滑坡泥石流、冰湖溃决、雪灾等灾种广泛发育,其灾害分布较广,灾损及其影响巨大,已成为高原经济社会可持续、健康发展的一个重要制约因素。高原自然灾害风险等级具有明显的空间异质性。整体上,地震、滑坡泥石流、冰湖溃决灾害高危区位于高原南部和东部边缘大片区域,该区域也是高原多灾种频发地带,许多路网和管网均处于该频发地段,其潜在危害巨大。青藏高原地形地貌复杂、气候变化空间异质性较强、冰冻圈发育,交通等基础设施广布,经济条件较差,这些因素形成了多灾种自然灾害发育的主要致灾因子和孕灾环境。高原受多致灾因子共同影响,各灾种承灾体多有重叠之处,亟须加强多灾种自然灾害综合管控研究。综合风险管控主导思路是决策者利用多灾种成灾机理研究结果,通过工程和非工程措施,以及各部门联防联控理念,全过程防范、减缓或规避自然灾害综合风险。具体综合风险管控策略如实时监测/观测、信息共享、部委会商、群测群防、防灾教育培训、保险承担、灾前规划。     

The role of groundwater governance in emergencies during different phases of natural disasters

The establishment of water governance in emergency situations supports timely and effective reaction with regard to the risk and impact of natural disasters on drinking-water supplies and populations. Under such governance, emergency activities of governmental authorities, rescue and aid teams, water stakeholders, local communities and individuals are coordinated with the objective to prevent and/or mitigate disaster impact on water supplies, to reduce human suffering due to drinking-water failure during and in the post-disaster period, and to manage drinking-water services in emergency situations in an equitable manner. The availability of low-vulnerability groundwater resources that have been proven safe and protected by geological features, and with long residence time, can make water-related relief and rehabilitation activities during and after an emergency more rapid and effective. Such groundwater resources have to be included in water governance and their exploration must be coordinated with overall management of drinking-water services in emergencies. This paper discusses institutional and technical capacities needed for building effective groundwater governance policy and drinking-water risk and demand management in emergencies. Disaster-risk mitigation plans are described, along with relief measures and post-disaster rehabilitation and reconstruction activities, which support gradual renewal of drinking-water services on the level prior to the disaster. The role of groundwater governance in emergencies differs in individual phases of disaster (preparedness, warning, impact/relief, rehabilitation). Suggested activities and actions associated with these phases are summarized and analysed, and a mode of their implementation is proposed.     

基于“3S”技术的地质灾害监测预警系统在我国应用现状

中国具有地质构造复杂,地貌类型多样,山区面积比例高等特点。近年来,在全球气候变化背景下,大量重大工程建设、不合理的资源开发和人类活动,导致各类地质灾害频发,严重影响了民生改善和小康社会建设进程,为地质灾害风险管控带来了挑战。开展地质灾害监测预警研究,能够为灾害风险管控、监测预警、防治减灾工作提供重要的科学依据。本文由中国地质灾害监测预警研究入手,着重分析讨论了我国地质灾害发育概况、监测预警既有成果和研究现状。然后从地质灾害监测预警的主要内容、主要技术方法和主要监测预警模型的发展和现状三个方面,讨论了"3S"技术在地质灾害监测预警中的研究现状和实践应用;最后详细讨论了目前基于"3S"技术的地质灾害监测预警平台在三峡库区和国家防灾减灾工作中的应用情况。本文最终结论认为,"3S"技术的地质灾害监测预警系统在各行业防灾减灾工作中的应用已日趋成熟,未来的地质灾害监测预警系统将以"3S"技术为基础,集观测、研究、风险评估、预报预警、预防治理为一体,有机结合各相关学科和大数据、人工智能、互联网+技术,通过对地质灾害的过程进行仿真模拟,分析诱发灾害的因素和发生强度,提高地质灾害预报的时间、地点、发生强度的准确性。     

Success factors of enhanced disaster resilience in urban community

Due to its unique geographic environment, Taiwan is prone to natural disasters such as earthquakes and typhoons that can cause heavy casualties and huge property losses. The effects of global warming have also increased extreme climate events and the frequency and severity of natural disasters. Therefore, disaster prevention/mitigation and response is not only an important government policy issue, but also an important daily life issue. To increase the awareness of natural disasters and the importance of community safety, the Taiwan government actively promotes a community disaster prevention system. However, to avoid over-reliance on the government taskforce, the spontaneous participation and cooperation within communities can complete specific disaster preparedness and reinforce local resources for disaster prevention and response. Although the concept of disaster-resilient community (DRC) has been shaped for a long period of time, community residents cannot keep pace with the government, which may decrease the effectiveness of DRC development. Therefore, theoretical and practical studies of urban DRC become imperative. This qualitative case study used the participant observation method to collect relevant empirical data by performing action research with self-reflection. Particularly, this article is supplemented by service work experience of the researchers in DRC promotion. A qualitative analysis of case communities during training in disaster preparedness revealed the critical success factors (CSFs) affecting the level of community-based disaster prevention and protection works. Based on the literature and empirical data, the CSFs are discussed through three spindle constructs: coping strategy, operations management, and organizational behavior. Finally, the conclusions and suggestions are given for promoting sustainable DRC.     

中国的巨灾风险与巨灾防范

巨灾是指对人民生命财产造成特别巨大损失,对社会经济发展产生严重影响的自然灾害事件。我国巨灾主要为特大洪水、大地震以及特大风暴潮、持续性大面积干旱。新中国建立以来,共有18个年份发生巨灾。巨灾频发的根本原因是,自然条件复杂多变,多种异常动力活动强烈;减灾基础薄弱,巨灾防范能力不足。未来时期,巨灾对国家安全和社会经济威胁依然严重,预测有11个高风险区,分布在东部沿海和部分中部地区。巨灾防范对策包括:提高认识、加强研究、建立管理系统及预警系统、制定应急预案、加强国际合作交流等。      

Risk and uncertainty analysis in the planning stages of a risk decision-making process

Natural disaster risk, a long-time concern in the insurance industry, is increasingly recognized as a present danger in the business strategies of risk control and enterprise management agencies. Floods and earthquakes can cause massive loss of life and infrastructure, resulting in business interruption and heavy casualties. Many of the short-term developmental strategies employed throughout the world have only served to exacerbate the impact of natural disasters. Therefore, this study presents a review of formal methods that are commonly used in risk and uncertainty analysis in planning and concludes with a critical assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of the different priority setting methods. Our focus is a preliminary proposal for developing an efficient probabilistic approach to facilitate design optimization that involves probabilistic constraints.     

世界环境问题和中国减灾工作研究进展

环境和灾害是威胁人类生存的两大挑战性问题。由人类活动导致的自然环境破坏和恶化是一个长期累积的过程,类似于人体所患的慢性疾病,对其认识和解决不仅依靠多种条件,也需要很长时间的持久努力。自然灾害的发生一般是短时间内的突然事件,类似人体的急性疾病。为最大限度地减轻自然灾害给人类社会造成的损失,需要实施事先预防、灾前预警、灾时应急和灾后重建的系统工程,其中地球科学家的责任之一是找出有效的宣传演练,使社会各界充分认识灾害的危险性,做好必要的防灾准备。最近20 a来中国的减灾实践经验还说明,为进一步提高减灾的效益,要用科学观念指导各领域的减灾工作,在国家一级层次上要实行多部门协调、多学科合作的综合管理,并注重对灾害发生的规律性研究。例如对群发性灾害链过程及其潜在影响的估计,这对制定区域性可持续发展规划具有重要意义。     

Perspectives of Natural Disasters in East and South Asia,and the Pacific Island States: Socio-economic Correlates and Needs Assessment

The regions of East and South Asia, and the Pacific Islands are among the most-hazardprone areas in the world. Because of this, during the last century, most of the humancasualties of `natural-triggered' disasters have taken place in this region. This circumstance therefore has become a major global humanitarian concern. Another major concern, specifically for the donor agencies, is the damage sustained by infrastructure resulting from environmental disasters. These recurrent loses take away a significant proportion of the cumulative economic gains accrued from development investments over many years.Stepwise multiple regression results substantiated the fact that many of the socio-economic and demographic variables significantly influence disaster-related deaths and injuries in this part of the world. A comparative temporal analysis has shown that, over the past two decades, demographic variables have become prominent predictors of disaster-loss in South, Southeast and East Asian and the Pacific states.Many countries of the region are lagging behind in understanding and recognizing thebroader scope of disaster mitigation and management. Emerging needs and awarenessamong the decision-makers and the general public, however, have prompted institutionsin many countries to initiate a critical review of the prevailing approaches. Thecountry-specific disaster-management capacities and needs in the region vary widely.There are many differences in historical courses, institutional and administrative settings, sociocultural characteristics, as well as political and economic systems. Development of a common institutional framework for the region, therefore, seems unfeasible. Based upon a regional review, it has become clear that the research calls for improving the understanding of the significance of disaster mitigation and management in light of sustainable development and the emerging global issues. In addition, aspects of human resource development to enhance institutional mitigation and response capacities are emphasized.     

自然变异与灾害过程的社会学研究

论述了自然变异及自然灾害与人类社会的互馈关系 ,探讨了社会条件控制下自然灾害的阶段性特点 ,提出了开展灾害社会学研究的使命。认为自然变异及自然灾害破坏人类社会的健康发展 ,但人类社会并不是完全被动的应付自然变异和自然灾害 ,而是对自然变异及自然灾害作出双向反响。一方面 ,采取科学的社会行为 ,积极抑制灾害活动 ,减轻自然灾害破坏损失 ;另一方面因政治腐败 ,纲纪松弛 ,经济衰退 ,社会混乱 ,或违背自然规律 ,盲目的社会经济活动 ,导致天灾与人祸并行 ,不仅加剧自然灾害 ,甚至导致许多全球性重大环境问题 ,对人类社会造成广泛而深远的影响。自然灾害不仅受自然条件控制 ,而且受人类社会的强烈影响 ,因此自然灾害除伴随自然条件发生复杂的周期性变化外 ,还伴随社会条件发生阶段性变化。自然灾害是一种自然社会现象 ,而且随着人类社会的持续发展 ,自然灾害的社会性越来越强烈。因此 ,在进一步加强灾害的自然科学研究的同时 ,开展社会学研究 ,对于发展灾害理论以及促进减灾事业的发展是十分必要的。     

Debris flow hazard assessment with numerical simulation

Debris flow disasters are usually accompanied by serious loss of lives and properties. However, debris flows are also part of earth’s natural phenomenon, and so what is the reasonable budget to be spent on mitigation measures becomes an important issue for the budget allocation processes. This article utilizes economic concepts to propose a reasonable estimation of the hazard damage and the cost of proposed mitigation measures. The proposed method is composed of four steps, namely, delineating the area of the disaster with different return periods, itemizing the land use within those areas, calculating the hazard loss using official values, and computing the expected probable maximum loss with a probability distribution. The comparison between the assessment of hazard and the economic gains of any proposed mitigation measures can be used as a reference for future decision-making process.     

Risk evaluation of ice-jam disasters using gray systems theory: the case of Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River

Risk evaluation for natural disasters is an important part of the emergency management, disaster prevention and mitigation. Because of the complexity and uncertainty of practical evaluation problems, the evaluation information available generally needs depiction of interval gray numbers instead of real numbers. This paper presents an evaluation method with three-parameter interval gray numbers which can deal with dynamic multiple indicators in order to evaluate efficiently the ice-jam disaster risk of Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River in China. The gray range transformation is introduced into the process of model building to eliminate the incomparability of different dimensions. Moreover, model GM(1,1) is used to simulate and predict the development trend of risk vector. As the results show, while the ice-jam disaster risk of Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River reveals certain wave characteristics, the overall trend remains smooth. The risk degree of ice-jam disaster with Bayangol and Toudaoguai is expected to decrease in the years between 2013 and 2015, while that with Sanhu River tends to increase.