Present-day seismicity of the south-eastern Elbe Fault System (NE Bohemian Massif)

The Variscan Bohemian Massif is disrupted by the NW-SE striking Elbe Fault System in its northern part. The increased tectonic activity associated with this structure is manifested by increased seismicity in the eastern part of the Sudetes. With the use of a temporary local seismic network, the total number of micro-earthquakes located in this region increased to 153 for the period 1996–2003. The local magnitudes vary between −0.6 and 1.8 and the seismic energy was often released in swarm-like sequences. Five seismic events with well-defined P-onset polarities at five or six stations enabled the estimation of focal mechanisms. The present-day activity of the WNW-ESE to NNW-SSE fault systems is discussed on the basis of source mechanisms, the alignment of the epicentres, as well as morphological and geological evidence. The majority of the recent seismic activity is concentrated in a 40–60 km wide zone of a generally NW-SE trend. This structure represents a regional zone of weakness within the SE termination of the Elbe Fault System, defined by a mesh of interconnected faults, of which many are deep-seated and highly permeable and some are associated with light to moderate historical earthquakes. Both in the areas due south and due north of this zone the present-day seismic activity is very low. The increased tectonic activity can be interpreted as a result of the abundance of suitably oriented faults and their interconnection into major fault systems, the proximity of the Outer Carpathian indentor and the Cainozoic volcanic and associated recent post-volcanic activity. The similar character of swarms and their coincidence with the post-volcanic activity in the southeastern part of the Elbe Fault System and in some focal zones of the western Bohemian seismically active area suggests that overpressurized fluids may represent a potential swarm-triggering mechanism.     

Seismological Evidence of Active Faulting in the Tendaho Rift (Afar Triangle, Ethiopia)

—A temporary network has been used to study the seismic activity in the central-northern part of the Tendaho Rift (Afar Triangle, Ethiopia). Small size earthquakes (M < 2.5) characterize the seismicity during the time interval 1993–1994 when the seismic array was operating. Shocks are mainly located in the central part of the Tendaho rift and their epicentral distribution highlights a remarkable coincidence with NW-SE trending tectonically active structures. Focal depths are confined in the range of 3–8?km. ? The few acceptable fault plane solutions suggest the occurrence of both strike-slip and dip-slip rupture mechanisms, which are often characterized by a nodal plane oriented approximately NW-SE. ?A detailed study of earthquake waveforms using polarization analysis showed the occurrence of splitting phenomena for the S waves. Despite the differences in focal mechanisms, the similarity of the faster S-wave directions (NW-SE to NNW-SSE) suggests that the direction of geological structures and/or the systems of fractures adjacent to the faults could bias shear-wave propagation. The splitting time between fast and slow shear waves shows no systematic relationship with either hypocentral distance or focal depth, suggesting that the anisotropic volume is constrained to depths shallower than 3?km.     

Detailed seismicity analysis revealing the dynamics of the southern Dead Sea area

Within the framework of the international DESIRE (DEad Sea Integrated REsearch) project, a dense temporary local seismological network was operated in the southern Dead Sea area. During 18 recording months, 648 events were detected. Based on an already published tomography study clustering, focal mechanisms, statistics and the distribution of the microseismicity in relation to the velocity models from the tomography are analysed. The determined b value of 0.74 leads to a relatively high risk of large earthquakes compared to the moderate microseismic activity. The distribution of the seismicity indicates an asymmetric basin with a vertical strike-slip fault forming the eastern boundary of the basin, and an inclined western boundary, made up of strike-slip and normal faults. Furthermore, significant differences between the area north and south of the Bokek fault were observed. South of the Bokek fault, the western boundary is inactive while the entire seismicity occurs on the eastern boundary and below the basin-fill sediments. The largest events occurred here, and their focal mechanisms represent the northwards transform motion of the Arabian plate along the Dead Sea Transform. The vertical extension of the spatial and temporal cluster from February 2007 is interpreted as being related to the locking of the region around the Bokek fault. North of the Bokek fault similar seismic activity occurs on both boundaries most notably within the basin-fill sediments, displaying mainly small events with strike-slip mechanism and normal faulting in EW direction. Therefore, we suggest that the Bokek fault forms the border between the single transform fault and the pull-apart basin with two active border faults.     

Spatial organization of seismicity and fracture pattern in NE Italy and W Slovenia

The study focuses on the spatial organization of seismicity and the relation between fracture pattern and earthquakes in the Friuli (north-eastern Italy) and western Slovenia seismic regions. The structural setting is characterized by a complex structure resulting from the superposition of several tectonic phases that generated NW-SE trending Dinaric faults and about E-W trending Alpine faults. The upper crust is characterized by lithological and mechanical heterogeneities. The fractal analysis shows that, in general, the seismicity only partially fills a plane. Only in a few cases, the earthquakes distribute on planar structures. The orientation of planes that fit through the hypocentres shows a different disposition at the two depth intervals analysed. The shallower interval (0–10 km) is characterized by planes with highly variable orientations. The spatial seismicity is investigated in the context of a general damage model, represented by the crack density distribution. The results evidence that the seismicity appears mostly located along sharp transition areas from low crack density to higher crack density, i.e., from zones of low damage to zones of intermediate damage. These zones are characterized by high heterogeneity due to the superposition of different tectonic phases and by the maximum interference between Dinaric and Alpine domains. The orientation of the planes fitting the seismicity at 10–20-km depth appears less dispersed, coinciding with the trend of Dinaric sub-vertical faults in the northern and eastern parts of the study area, and with Alpine low-angle faults in the western and southern parts.     

Seismicity around the Hekla and Torfajökull volcanoes, Iceland, during a volcanically quiet period, 1991–1995

The volcano Hekla in south Iceland had its latest eruption in January–March 1991. The eruption was accompanied and followed by considerable seismic activity. This study examines the seismicity in the Hekla region (63°42′–64°18′N, 18°30′–20°12′W) during a period when the high activity related to the eruption had ceased, from July 1991 to October 1995. The aim is to define the level of the normal background seismicity of the area that can be compared to the eruption-related activity. The Hekla Volcano proper was generally aseismic during the study period. The most prominent earthquake cluster is in the neighbouring Torfajökull Volcano. The epicentres are concentrated in the western part of the caldera and west of it. The hypocentres are located at all depths from the surface down to 14?km, with highest activity at 5–12?km. Inside this cluster, in the northwest part of the caldera, is a spherical volume void of earthquakes, approximately 4?km in diameter and centred at 8?km depth. This is interpreted as a cooling magma body. Small, low-frequency events of volcanic origin were occasionally recorded at Torfajökull. This activity has mainly occurred in swarms and was most abundant during the first year of the study period, presumably reflecting some kind of connection to the 1991 Hekla eruption. Our study area also includes the easternmost section of the South Iceland seismic zone, a transform zone characterized by bookshelf faulting on transverse faults. Two lineaments of epicentres were identified, roughly corresponding to mapped faults of the South Iceland seismic zone. The hypocentres are relatively deep, mainly at 6–12?km, matching the general trend of hypocentral depth increasing toward the east. The seismicity is highest in the area of the mapped faults. However, the epicentres extend beyond them and indicate greater width of the South Iceland seismic zone, or 20–30?km rather than approximately 10?km as indicated by the length of the surface faults. The seismicity in the volcanic systems of Hekla and Vatnafjöll shows some characteristics of the South Iceland seismic zone. Epicentres are concentrated into two N–S lineaments, one of which coincides with the location of the 1987 Vatnafjöll earthquake (M_w=5.9), a strike-slip event on a N- to S-trending fault. The hypocentres of the Hekla–Vatnafjöll events are mainly at 8–13?km depth, which indicates a continuation of the depth trend of the earthquakes of the South Iceland seismic zone. The events located at Hekla proper and immediately north of it are all of low-frequency character, which can be held as an indication of volcanic origin. On the other hand, they show clear S arrivals at observing stations like normal high-frequency tectonic earthquakes.     

豫北地区地震活动性及其与区域地壳运动的关系

本根据地震地质和地震分布条带,把豫北地区从西至东分为弱,中,强三个区段。由于区域地壳深部主断裂和大震活动的牵动作用,是造成本地震活动的重要原因,因而从区域地壳块体活动背景上探讨了本区及邻近地区地震活动趋势,中还指出,豫北西部太行山区的林县－薄壁地震带,虽不具有强震构造背景,但小震年月频率多寡和震群活动,却能反映了大区域地壳应力场强弱,亦可作为判断区域性地震活动的指标。     

龙泉山断裂带地震活动性浅析

通过对龙泉山断裂带东坡断裂和西坡断裂的地震活动性研究,表明该带是一条活断层。历史地震记载和现今地震活动均呈现沿断裂带分布,地震活动呈现周期性和南北跳迁的特点,近10年来地震监测资料表明该带地震活动在增强。     

An Application of Induced Seismicity Data Analysis for Detection of Spatial Structures and Temporal Regimes of Deformation Processes in Hydrocarbon Fields

—?An application of induced seismicity data to detection of deformation processes is considered. Methodology of the data interpretation is based on the conception of rock mass as a block medium adopting energy from internal and external sources and forming dissipative structures. The ideas from the stability theory of nonlinear systems are used. A spatial and temporal distribution of seismicity is analyzed to discover a regular, predictable component of seismic regime. Various methods were used for the analysis of seismic events listed in the seismic catalog in the region of Romashkino oil-field (Russia). Quasi-harmonious oscillations of seismic activity were found. They were synchronized in time with change of injection effectiveness. Spatial structures of seismicity were detected, and it was shown that these structures are in good agreement with tectonic faults. Data analysis shows correlation between seismic activity and imbalance of injected and extracted fluids. The obtained results show that water-injection effectiveness decreases during periods of increased seismic activity and increases during periods of low seismic activity.     

Seismicity of the Indian Peninsular Shield from Regional Earthquake Data

--In this comprehensive study of seismicity and seismotectonics of the peninsular Indian shield region, seismic data of regional earthquakes spanning two decades (1978-1997), obtained at Gauribidanur seismic array (India) and integrated where necessary with data from other seismological stations in the region, have been analyzed in detail. With a slow rate of stress accumulation, the shield is found to have low to moderate seismicity that takes into account a couple of earthquakes of magnitude slightly larger than 6. The frequency-magnitude analysis of the data set gives a b value of 1.18. The spatio-temporal pattern of occurrences of the earthquakes combined with their magnitude and seismic energy distribution is consistent with the view that the peninsular seismicity is low to moderate and episodic in nature. Regions of moderate seismicity and its low-grade counterpart constituted by microearthquakes (magnitude less than 3), appear correlated to the areas traversed by known geologic faults and subfaults, shear zones, and other such tectonic features. Microearthquakes represent about two-thirds of the total regional seismic events during the past two decades.     

Seismicity gap near Oaxaca,southern Mexico as a probable precursor to a large earthquake

Summary An area of significant seismic quiescence is found near Oaxaca, southern Mexico. The anomalous area may be the site of a future large earthquake as many cases so far reported were. This conjecture is justified by study of past seismicity changes in the Oaxaca region. An interval of reduced seismicity, followed by a renewal of activity, preceded both the recent large events of 1965 and 1968. Those past earthquakes have ruptured the eastern and western portions of the present seismicity gap, respectively, so that the central part remaining is considered to be of the highest risk of the pending earthquake.The most probable estimates are: 7 1/2±1/4 for the magnitude and =16.5°±0.5°N, =96.5°±0.5W for the epicenter location. A firm prediction of the occurrence time is not attempted. However, a resumption of seismic activity in the Oaxaca region may precede a main shock.On leave from the Marine Science Institute, University of Texas, USA.     

Machine learning-based automatic construction of earthquake catalog for reservoir areas in multiple river basins of Guizhou province,China

Large reservoirs have the risk of reservoir induced seismicity. Accurately detecting and locating microseismic events are crucial when studying reservoir earthquakes. Automatic earthquake monitoring in reservoir areas is one of the effective measures for earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, we first applied the automatic location workflow (named LOC-FLOW) to process 14-day continuous waveform data from several reservoir areas in different river basins of Guizhou province. Compared with the manual seismic catalog, the recall rate of seismic event detection using the workflow was 83.9%. Of the detected earthquakes, 88.9% had an onset time difference below 1 s, 81.8% has a deviation in epicenter location within 5 km, and 77.8% had a focal depth difference of less than 5 km, indicating that the workflow has good generalization capacity in reservoir areas. We further applied the workflow to retrospectively process continuous waveform data recorded from 2020 to the first half of 2021 in reservoir areas in multiple river basins of western Guizhou province and identified five times the number of seismic events obtained through manual processing. Compared with manual processing of seismic catalog, the completeness magnitude had decreased from 1.3 to 0.8, and a b-value of 1.25 was calculated for seismicity in western Guizhou province, consistent with the b-values obtained for the reservoir area in previous studies. Our results show that seismicity levels were relatively low around large reservoirs that were impounded over 15 years ago, and there is no significant correlation between the seismicity in these areas and reservoir impoundment. Seismicity patterns were notably different around two large reservoirs that were only impounded about 12 years ago, which may be explained by differences in reservoir storage capacity, the geologic and tectonic settings, hydrogeological characteristics, and active fault the reservoir areas. Prominent seismicity persisted around two large reservoirs that have been impounded for less than 10 years. These events were clustered and had relatively shallow focal depths. The impoundment of the Jiayan Reservoir had not officially begun during this study period, but earthquake location results suggested a high seismicity level in this reservoir area. Therefore, any seismicity in this reservoir area after the official impoundment deserves special attention.     

Active intracontinental transpressional mountain building in the Mongolian Altai: Defining a new class of orogen

Mountain ranges that are actively forming around the western and northern perimeter of the Indo-Eurasia collisional deformational field, such as the Mongolian Altai, comprise a unique class of intracontinental intraplate transpressional orogen with structural and basinal elements that are distinct from contractional and extensional orogens. Late Cenozoic uplift and mountain building in the Mongolian Altai is dominated by regional-scale dextral strike-slip faults that link with thrust and oblique-slip faults within a 300-km-wide deforming belt sandwiched between the more rigid Junggar Basin block and Hangay Precambrian craton. Dominant orogenic elements in the Mongolian Altai include double restraining bends, terminal restraining bends, partial restraining bends, single thrust ridges, thrust ridges linked by strike-slip faults, and triangular block uplifts in areas of conjugate strike-slip faults. The overall pattern is similar to a regional strike-slip duplex array; however, the significant amount of contractional and oblique-slip displacement within the range and large number of historical oblique-slip seismic events renders the term “transpressional duplex” more accurate. Intramontane and range flanking basins can be classified as ramp basins, half-ramp basins, open-sided thrust basins, pull-apart basins, and strike-slip basins. Neither a classic fold-and-thrust orogenic wedge geometry nor a bounding foredeep exists. The manner in which upper crustal transpressional deformation is balanced in the lower crust is unknown; however, crustal thickening by lower crustal inflation and northward outflow of lower crustal material are consistent with existing geological and geodetic data and could account for late Cenozoic regional epeirogenic uplift in the Russian Altai and Sayan regions.     

Deep-seated faults and lineaments, and the location of earthquake epicenters in the Russian northeast on land

This paper summarizes the available geological and geophysical material for faults as regards their role in the seismic process. The entirety of the geological and geophysical evidence is used to reveal hidden faults, which are important in influencing the spatial distribution of earthquakes, and to produce a map of the major earthquake-generating faults and lineaments in the Russian northeast. As well as the occurrence of earthquakes at known faults that have surface expression, we find that seismicity tends to occur at the hidden faults and lineaments we have identified, as well as at intersections of faults. We made a quantitative assessment of the relationship of seismicity to tectonic fragmentation of the crust, correlating the density and discordance measure for faults to indicators of seismic activity (rate and energy release of earthquakes per unit area) for the southeast flank of the Okhotsk-Lena seismic region. The results obtained in this study revealed some features in the spatial distribution of earthquakes occurring on land in the Okhotsk-Lena seismic region: the maximum level of seismic activity occurs in areas with moderate values of the discordance measure for faults (12 < ‖D‖ ≤ 18) as identified from gravity data and in zones of increased horizontal gradients of the lines of equal discordance. At these locations, the greatest probability of earthquake occurrence for events of energy class K ≥ 12 corresponds to moderate values of the density of faults visible at the surface (0.12 < τ ≤ 0.16 km^?1).     

Long-term seismicity in regions of present day low seismic activity: the example of western Europe

In western Europe, the knowledge of long-term seismicity is based on reliable historical seismicity and covers a time period of less than 700 years. Despite the fact that the seismic activity is considered as low in the region extending from the Lower Rhine Embayment to England, historical information collected recently suggests the occurrence of three earthquakes with magnitude around 6.0 or greater. These events are a source of information for the engineer or the scientist involved in mitigation against large earthquakes. We provide information relevant to this aspect for the Belgian earthquake of September 18, 1692. The severity of the damage described in original sources indicates that its epicentral intensity could be IX (EMS-98 scale) and that the area with intensity VII and greater than VII has at least a mean radius of 45 km. Following relationships between average macroseismic radii and magnitude for earthquakes in stable continental regions, its magnitude M_s is estimated as between 6.0 and 6.5. To extend in time our knowledge of the seismic activity, we conducted paleoseismic investigations in the Roer Graben to address the question of the possible occurrence of large earthquakes with coseismic surface ruptures. Our study along the Feldbiss fault (the western border of the graben) demonstrates its recent activity and provides numerous lines of evidence of Holocene and Late Pleistocene large earthquakes. It suggests that along the 10 km long Bree fault scarp, the return period for earthquakes with magnitude from 6.2 to 6.7 ranges from 10,000 to 20,000 years during the last 50,000 years. Considering as possible the occurrence of similar earthquakes along all the Quaternary faults in the Lower Rhine Embayment, a large earthquake could occur there each 500–1000 years. These results are important in two ways. (i) The evidence that large earthquakes occur in western Europe in the very recent past which is not only attested by historical sources, but also suggested by paleoseismic investigations in the Roer Graben. (ii) The existence of a scientific basis to better evaluate the long-term seismicity in this part of Europe (maximal magnitude and return period) in the framework of seismic hazard assessment.     

The Al Hoceima Mw 6.4 earthquake of 24 February 2004 and its aftershocks sequence

The Al Hoceima Mw 6.4 earthquake of 24 February 2004 that occurred in the eastern Rif region of Morocco already hit by a large event in May 1994 (Mw 5.9) has been followed by numerous aftershocks in the months following the event. The aftershock sequence has been monitored by a temporary network of 17 autonomous seismic stations during 15 days (28 March–10 April) in addition to 5 permanent stations of the Moroccan seismic network (CNRST, SPG, Rabat). This network allowed locating accurately about 650 aftershocks that are aligned in two directions, about N10-20E and N110-120E, in rough agreement with the two nodal planes of the focal mechanism (Harvard). The aftershock alignments are long enough, about 20 km or more, to correspond both to the main rupture plane. To further constrain the source of the earthquake main shock and aftershocks (mb > 3.5) have been relocated thanks to regional seismic data from Morocco and Spain. While the main shock is located at the intersection of the aftershock clouds, most of the aftershocks are aligned along the N10-20E direction. This direction together with normal sinistral slip implied by the focal mechanism is similar with the direction and mechanisms of active faults in the region, particularly the N10E Trougout oblique normal fault. Indeed, the Al Hoceima region is dominated by an approximate ENE-SSW direction of extension, with oblique normal faults. Three major 10–30 km-long faults, oriented NNE-SSW to NW-SE are particularly clear in the morphology, the Ajdir and Trougout faults, west and east of the Al Hoceima basin, respectively, and the NS Rouadi fault 20 km to the west. These faults show clear evidence of recent vertical displacements during the late Quaternary such as uplifted alluvial terraces along Oued Rihs, offset fan surfaces by the Rouadi fault and also uplifted and tilted abandoned marine terraces on both sides of the Al Hoceima bay.However, the N20E direction is in contrast with seismic sources identified from geodetic inversions, which favour but not exclusively the N110-120E rupture directions, suggesting that the 1994 and 2004 events occurred on conjugate faults. In any event, the recent seismicity is thus concentrated on sinistral N10-20E or N110-120E dextral strike-slip faults, which surface expressions remain hidden below the 3–5 km-thick Rif nappes, as shown by the tomographic images build from the aftershock sequence and the concentration of the seismicity below 3 km. These observations may suggest that strain decoupling between the thrusted cover and the underlying bedrock and highlights the difficulty to determine the source properties of moderate events with blind faults even in the case of good quality recorded data.     

The genesis of seismic activity on faults in Central Asia in real time and its variations

We used the Digital Faults geoinformation system that we developed to propose an algorithm for quantitative estimation of seismic activity on faults. The resulting technique was used to study the spatiotemporal patterns in the present-day activity of faults in Central Asia. Fault activity was found to vary at frequencies of a few years and cannot be explained by changes in the regional stress fields. We studied the tendency of seismic events to be localized to areas of dynamic influence due to faults. The active faults were grouped by the criteria of seismicity organization in the influence areas of these faults. It was shown that fault activity and its comparatively high frequency on real time scales are caused by strain waves, which may be generated by interplate and interblock movements in the brittle lithosphere. Judging by the speed of strain waves, the active faults are classified into groups that differ in their geological and geophysical parameters. They can be used to estimate the directions of strain wave fronts and to identify areas of dominant fault activation over intervals of real (geologically speaking) time. We give a map showing active faults in Central Asia, plots of a quantitative index of their seismic activity, and the directivity vectors of strain waves that excite fault activity. The methods we developed for classifying active faults by the quantitative index of seismic activity and for determining the vectors of strain waves that excite fault activity are all tools that significantly expand our possibilities when developing tectonophysical models of the seismic process in earthquake-generating zones of the lithosphere and open new methods for attacking problems in intermediate-term earthquake prediction.     

基于密集台阵研究龙门山断裂带南段地震空段的地震活动性

2016年12月—2018年4月间布设于汶川、芦山地震之间地震空段的密集监测台阵(LmsSGA)提供了密集的观测数据.通过拾取地震走时、初始定位,计算地方震级,得到了完备性震级为0级的地震目录.更加完备的地震目录为地震空段及周围地震活动的时空分布特征和孕震风险性评估提供了丰富的信息.重定位结果显示地震主要集中于龙门山断裂带深度为5～20km的孕震层内.地震活动频繁的汶川、芦山主震区,震源的空间分布模式与其早期余震相似,说明两次大地震的区域仍处于缓慢的应力调整阶段.青藏高原物质东向挤出受宝兴、彭灌杂岩阻挡,在两个杂岩体西北侧地震活动频繁.地震活动性分布显示汶川—茂县、映秀—北川断裂上存在一个清晰的长约30km,宽约20km的地震活动"空白"区域,与其下方因部分熔融而产生的低速体分布一致,我们推测熔融体的加温作用是导致空段内极低的地震活动性的主要原因.监测时段内仍观测到降雨变化率和地震数量呈反相关关系,再次证实了汶川—芦山地震间地震空段及邻区内季节性降雨对地震活动性存在一定调节作用.综合分析S波速度模型、历史强震活动及b值,我们推断地震空段东部的彭灌断裂中段及周围部分隐伏断层存在发生强震的风险.     

Research on the Relationship between Active Faults and Earthquakes in the Junction Area of the China North-South Seismic Belt and Central Orogenic Belt Based on GIS

Research on the relationship between faults and seismicity in the junction area of China's north-south seismic belt and central orogenic belt based on the Geography Information System (GIS) has been done.For each of the 16 faults in this area,we build a 25km buffer zone and use overlay analysis to investigate the seismicity and its characteristics on each fault.The results unveil the main seismic faults as follows:the western segment of the northern-edge of the west Qinling fault,the southwestern segment of the Lixian-Luojiabao fault,the southeastern segment of the Lintan-Dangchang fault,the southwestern segment of the Wenxian fault,the Huya fault,and the Xueshan fault.The most active faults are the Huya and Xueshan faults,then the Tazang fault,the Lixian-Luojiabao fault and the northern piedmont of the Guanggaishan-Dieshan fault.The research zone can be divided into four areas according to focal depth,which gets deeper from north to south.The profile of focal depth indicates the geometry and mechanical property of faults,and further reveals the movement model of eastward extrusion of the Tibetan plateau and southeastward escape of masses,thus providing basis for the protection against earthquakes and hazard mitigation in this area.     

基于特大地震发生率的川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型

川滇地区是我国地震危险性较高的地区之一.本文基于对特大强震的风险性考虑,使用全球地震模型OpenQuake软件,建立了川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型.首先根据构造特征划分多个震源分区,并整理出这些震源分区内断层活动特征与滑动速率;基于震源分区和断层模型,使用GPS应变率转换成的锥形古登堡-里克特关系作为整个区域的地震积累率,并允许超过历史最大震级的特大地震的出现,结合活动断层滑动速率所积累的地震发生率,给出震源分区内断层地震源和背景地震源的地震发生率的比率分配关系;在活动断层分段上,保留了大型断裂或其主要部分,没有根据小的阶区来对断层进行详细分段,以便分配特大地震发生率;并使用地震率平滑方法分配背景地震发生率.最后在OpenQuake中加入地震动预测方程,计算出了川滇地区的PGA分布图,为区域地震危险性提供科学依据.     

北天山中段微震活动检测及其活动性和孕震构造分析

北天山地震带地处中国大陆强震高发区, 孕震构造复杂, 近年来陆续发生了2016年呼图壁M_S6.2地震和2017年精河M_S6.6地震。 由于测震台网相对比较稀疏, 该区域微震监测能力较弱。 本文主要采用波形模板扫描法对北天山中段(43.5°N~44.5°N; 85°E~87.5°E)进行微震事件检测, 并反演精细的一维速度结构, 重新定位地震; 深入分析该区域的地震活动性和孕震构造特征。 经过微震检测, 得到该地区2014年1月至2018年9月期间57902个地震事件, 是原地震目录的10倍, 完备震级从1.2降至0.5。 结果显示, 北天山中段地震十分活跃, 主要分布在北天山山前霍尔果斯—玛纳斯—吐谷鲁背斜带南翼的浅部和南玛纳斯—齐古背斜带深部, 呼图壁地震震后地震活动性有增强的趋势。 研究期间沿背斜构造带走向地震分布不均, 霍尔果斯—玛纳斯—吐谷鲁背斜带西段地震活动多于东段, 南玛纳斯—齐古背斜带东段地震活动显著强于西段。 经过重定位, 发现研究区的地震事件主要发生在褶皱内部的“盲断层”上, 这些隐伏断裂与区域活动断裂和背斜构造共同组成的断层系孕育了北天山山前活跃的地震活动, 并可能成为未来强震的发震构造。