On the theoretical model for vertical ozone density distributions in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere

Diurnal variations in the vertical ozone density distribution have been calculated for the height range 40–150 km by extending our existing computer programs. The steady-state profiles were first calculated for fifteen constituents in the original program and three additional constituents (CH₄, CO and CO₂); the result was used as the initial condition for the time-dependent solution. The profile of the eddy diffusion coefficient used in this study was determined by comparing the model profile with the observations for CH₄, whose density distribution is verysenstive to the eddy diffusion coefficient The effects of hydrogen and nitrogen compounds on the ozone density are discussed somewhat quantitatively; they reduce the ozone density mainly in the mesosphere and stratosphere, respectively. Special attention is given to the large depression of the ozone density at around 70–85 km, which has been obtained in many theoretical models but has neither been explained nor definitely confirmed by observations. Our time-dependent model indicates that the depression develops at night by the effect of hydrogen-oxygen and nitrogen-oxygen reactions and of eddy diffusion transports. The latter effect also produces an increase of the ozone density after midnight at some heights in the depression region.     

Impact of the numbers of observations and calibration parameters on equifinality,model performance,and output and parameter uncertainty

The level of model complexity that can be effectively supported by available information has long been a subject of many studies in hydrologic modelling. In particular, distributed parameter models tend to be regarded as overparameterized because of numerous parameters used to describe spatially heterogeneous hydrologic processes. However, it is not clear how parameters and observations influence the degree of overparameterization, equifinality of parameter values, and uncertainty. This study investigated the impact of the numbers of observations and parameters on calibration quality including equifinality among calibrated parameter values, model performance, and output/parameter uncertainty using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. In the experiments, the number of observations was increased by expanding the calibration period or by including measurements made at inner points of a watershed. Similarly, additional calibration parameters were included in the order of their sensitivity. Then, unique sets of parameters were calibrated with the same objective function, optimization algorithm, and stopping criteria but different numbers of observations. The calibration quality was quantified with statistics calculated based on the ‘behavioural’ parameter sets, identified using 1% and 5% cut‐off thresholds in a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation framework. The study demonstrated that equifinality, model performance, and output/parameter uncertainty were responsive to the numbers of observations and calibration parameters; however, the relationship between the numbers, equifinality, and uncertainty was not always conclusive. Model performance improved with increased numbers of calibration parameters and observations, and substantial equifinality did neither necessarily mean bad model performance nor large uncertainty in the model outputs and parameters. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integration of the life of field seismic data with the reservoir model at the Valhall Field‡

The frequent time‐lapse observations from the life of field seismic system across the Valhall field provide a wealth of information. The responses from the production and injection wells can be observed through time‐shift and amplitude changes. These observations can be compared to modelled synthetic seismic responses from a reservoir simulation model of the Valhall Field. The observed differences between the observations and the modelling are used to update and improve the history match of the reservoir model. The uncertainty of the resulting model is reduced and a more confident prediction of future reservoir performance is provided. A workflow is presented to convert the reservoir model to a synthetic seismic response and compare the results to the observed time‐lapse responses for any time range and area of interest. Correlation based match quality factors are calculated to quantify the visual differences. This match quality factor allows us to quantitatively compare alternative reservoir models to help identify the parameters that best match the seismic observations. Three different case studies are shown where this workflow has helped to reduce the uncertainty range associated with specific reservoir parameters. By updating various reservoir model parameters we have been able to improve the match to the observations and thereby improve the overall reservoir model predictability. The examples show positive results in a range of different reservoir modelling issues, which indicates the flexibility of this workflow and the ability to have an impact in most reservoir modelling challenges.     

SMLTM simulations of the diurnal tide: comparison with UARS observations

Wind and temperature observations in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) reveal strong seasonal variations of tides, a dominant component of the MLT dynamics. Simulations with the Spectral mesosphere/lower thermosphere model (SMLTM) for equinox and solstice conditions are presented and compared with the observations. The diurnal tide is generated by forcing specified at the model lower boundary and by in situ absorption of solar radiation. The model incorporates realistic parameter-izations of physical processes including various dissipation processes important for propagation of tidal waves in the MLT. A discrete multi-component gravity-wave parameterization has been modified to account for seasonal variations of the background temperature. Eddy diffusion is calculated depending on the gravitywave energy deposition rate and stability of the background flow. It is shown that seasonal variations of the diurnal-tide amplitudes are consistent with observed variations of gravity-wave sources in the lower atmosphere.     

利用FG5绝对重力仪观测数据确定重力垂直梯度

本文建立了利用FG5实测数据求解重力垂直梯度的数据处理模型与算法.通过对多次自由落体实验的下落距离拟合残差叠加求均值,发现下落距离观测量中存在明显的有色噪声.通过对有色噪声的建模,并以剩余残差为依据选取可靠的下落时段,解算测站点的重力垂直梯度.利用本文所提出的数据处理方法分别对FG5-214绝对重力仪在两个测站上的观测数据进行处理,以相对重力仪测量的重力垂直梯度结果为参考值,本文处理得到的重力垂直梯度结果相比于未考虑有色噪声并依据经验选取下落时段的解算方法得到了显著改善.     

江宁地电台的电性结构及关于地电阻率观测值的解释

为了探究地表和井下观测的地电阻率值存在的明显差异,本文首先对江宁地电台电性结构进行了探测,并建立了水平层状电性结构模型;然后基于该模型计算了地表和井下观测装置的理论视电阻率值;最后对比分析计算值与观测值。结果表明,地表大供电极距观测装置和井下观测装置的观测值均可以由地下电性结构进行合理解释,即地表与井下观测值的差异是合理的,是由地下电性结构所决定的。      

基础隔震结构的非线性动力分析

新的建筑抗震设计规范将隔震结构列入其中，探讨分析了结构基础隔震应用中应注意的问题，提出了非线性动力时程分析计算模型并编制了程序。借助该程序，分析了基础隔震结构在地震作用下的层间位移、加速度和剪力等地震反应并与未隔震相同结构建筑的地震反应进行了对比。     

盾构过富水砂层对地表建筑物影响的研究

结合深圳地铁2号线盾构过富水砂层施工实际,考虑流-固藕合水土本构关系,用FLAC3D软件建立了盾构施工数值分析模型。计算结果与工程实测数据对比验证了数值模型的合理性。进一步研究了盾构过富水砂层对地表不同位置建筑的影响:建筑物基础在隧道正上方时产生沉降最大且较均匀,水平位移最小;盾构机开挖下穿时建筑物差异沉降最大,建筑物倾向盾构开挖方向;建筑物基础横向上离隧道中心一倍隧道埋深时,建筑物水平移动最大,易受剪切破坏,倾向垂直盾构开挖方向,周边地表沉降差最大;建筑物离隧道中心横向距离超过两倍隧道埋深时,盾构开挖对建筑物基础沉降的影响较小,建筑物沉降与其周边地表沉降较均匀。     

基于Weimer模型的高纬地磁扰动预测

地磁扰动是空间天气中的重要现象,对地基技术系统具有重要的影响.准确预报地磁扰动可以有效避免重大灾害发生.本文基于Weimer电势和磁势模型发展了高纬地区地磁扰动的模拟方法,并与地面台站观测数据进行了比较.地表磁场扰动主要受电离层电流系统的影响,利用Weimer模式计算出电离层等效电流分布后,基于毕奥-萨伐尔定律推导了地磁扰动三分量与电流的关系,最终计算出地磁扰动量.模型的输入参数为太阳风速度、太阳风密度、行星际磁场和磁偶极倾角.模型计算结果与不同纬度和经度的地磁台站观测结果对比表明本文的计算方法能有效地模拟地磁暴期间地磁扰动特征.本文结果对今后发展高纬地区地磁场预报模型奠定了重要基础.     

城市轨道交通U型梁动力性能研究与实验验证

为探讨城市轨道交通U型梁车桥系统的动力响应,采用线性化轮轨模型建立了31个自由度的轮轨式车辆动力学模型.模型考虑了新型算法的横竖向轨道不平顺,以重庆市轨道交通一号线工程中梁山以西高架区间所采用标准跨径为30m的单线小U结构为对象,采用自编程序对机车车辆过桥时的车桥耦合振动进行了分析,并通过计算与实测结果的对比分析对所建...     

Soil-structure interaction analysis of the Hualien containment model

This paper presents results from forced vibration tests, microtremor observations and earthquake response analysis of a nuclear reactor containment model constructed on stiff soil in Hualien, Taiwan. The dynamic behavior of the soil-structure system is simulated successfully with two numerical models: a sway-rocking model, whose soil parameters are evaluated on the basis of the continuum formulation method, and a finite element model, using the program SASSI with the flexible volume substructuring approach. The dependences of the soil parameters of both models on the amplitudes of the different dynamic excitations are investigated in detail. An original numerical simulation of microtremor is performed. Comparison with results of a previous study involving a rigid tower on a soft soil site in Chiba, Japan is offered.     

2021年青海玛多Mw7.3地震地壳变形及区域孕震环境

北京时间2021年5月22日02时04分,在青海省果洛藏族自治州玛多县发生Mw7.3地震.本文利用震中及邻区2009-2021年GNSS观测资料,研究了此次地震的区域孕震环境、同震和震后初期的变形特征.首先,给出了较高空间分辨率的GNSS速度场,表明震中及其邻区的构造活动以左旋剪切为主,巴颜喀拉块体南北两侧的相对运动是...     

Improvements in mining induced microseismic source locations at the Lucky Friday mine using an automated whole-waveform analysis system

For years, severe rockburst problems at the Lucky Friday mine in northern Idaho have been a persistent safety hazard and an impediment to production. An MP250 based microseismic monitoring system, which uses simple voltage threshold picking of first arrivals, has been used in this mine since 1973 to provide source locations and energy estimates of seismic events. Recently, interest has been expressed in developing a whole waveform microseismic monitoring system for the mine to provide more accurate source locations and information about source characteristics. For this study, we have developed a prototype whole-waveform microseismic monitoring system based on a 80386 computer equipped with a 50 kHz analog-digital convertor board. The software developed includes a data collection program, a data analysis program, and an event detection program. Whole-waveform data collected and analyzed using this system during a three-day test have been employed to investigate sources of error in the hypocenter location process and to develop an automatic phase picker appropriate for microseismic events.Comparison of hypocenter estimates produced by the MP250 system to those produced by the whole-waveform system shows that significant timing errors are common in the MP250 system and that these errors caused a large part of the scatter evident in the daily activity plots produced at the mine. Simulations and analysis of blast data show that analytical control over the solutions is strongly influenced by the array geometry. Within the geophone array, large errors in the velocity model or moderate timing errors may result in small changes in the solution, but outside the array, the solution is very sensitive to small changes in the data.Our whole-waveform detection program picks event onset times and determines event durations by analysis of a segmented envelope function (SEF) derived from the microseismic signal. The detection program has been tested by comparing its arrival time picks to those generated by human analysis of the data set. The program picked 87% of the channels that were picked by hand with a standard error of 0.75 milliseconds. Source locations calculated using times provided by our entire waveform detection program were similar to those calculated using hand-picked arrival times. In particular, they show far less scatter than source locations calculated using arrival times based on simple voltage threshold picking of first arrivals.     

Source mechanism of volcanic tremor: fluid-driven crack models and their application to the 1963 kilauea eruption

We propose a model for the mechanism of magma transport based on a fluid-filled tensile crack driven by the excess pressure of fluid. Such a transport mechanism can generate seismic waves by a succession of jerky crack extensions, if the fracture strength of rock varies in space, or if there is a difference between the dynamic and static values of the critical stress intensity factor. We also find that the opening and closing of a narrow channel connecting two fluid-filled cracks may be a source of seismic waves. Using the finite-difference method, we calculated the vibration of dry and fluid-filled cracks generated by: (1) a jerky extension at one end or at both ends and (2) a jerky opening of a narrow channel connecting two cracks. We then calculated the far-field and near-field radiation from these vibrating cracks. The spectra show peaked structures, but interestingly, most high-frequency peaks are only present in the near-field and cannot be transmitted to the far-field. The spectral features described above are often observed for volcanic tremors and in some cases for seismic signals associated with hydraulic fracturing experiments.We first consider as a model of volcanic tremor randomly occurring jerky crack extensions, and derive a formula relating the tremor amplitude to the excess pressure in the magma, the incremental area in each extension, and the frequency of extensions. These parameters are also constrained by other observations, such as the rate of magma flow.Our model was tested quantitatively against observations made in one of the best-described case histories of volcanic tremor: the October 5–6, 1963 Kilauea flank eruption. We found that a single, long crack extending from the summit to the eruptive site cannot explain the observations. The model of a steadily expanding crack ran into difficulties when quantitative comparisons were made with observations. The extension of crack area needed to explain the amplitude of volcanic tremor should accompany a large increase in tremor period which was not observed.Our second model is a chain of cracks connected by narrow channels which open and close. The length of each crack is around 1 km, the channel area connecting neighboring cracks is about 10³m², and the channel opens jerkily with the magmatic excess pressure of about 20 bars. The frequency of jerky opening of each channel is about once in 15 seconds. The channel is closed after each jerky opening, as soon as magma is moved through the channel.     

Seismic Location Calibration of the European Arctic

—?A crustal velocity model has been developed for Fennoscandia, the Baltic shield and adjacent areas. This model represents a simplified average of various models developed for parts of this region. We show that P-wave travel times calculated with this model provide an excellent fit to observations at the Fennoscandian, KRSC and IRIS station networks for a set of seismic events with known or very well-constrained locations. The station-event paths cover large parts of Western Russia and the Barents Sea, thus indicating that this model, which we denote the Barents model, is appropriate for this entire region. We show by examples that significant improvements in event location precision can be achieved compared to using the IASPEI model. We finally use the Barents model to calculate locations of recent small seismic events in the Novaya Zemlya region of interest in a CTBT monitoring context.     

An iterative scheme for use in MT 2D forward modelling — to speed up production of the Jacobian and to improve accuracy of the inverse matrix

An important stage in two-dimensional magnetotelluric modelling is the calculation of the Earth's response functions for an assumed conductivity model and the calculation of the associated Jacobian relating those response functions to the model parameters. The efficiency of the calculation of the Jacobian will affect the efficiency of the inversion modelling. Rodi (1976) produced all the Jacobian elements by inverting a single matrix and using an approximate first-order algorithm. Since only one inverse matrix required calculation the procedure speeded up the inversion. An iterative scheme to improve the approximation to the Jacobian information is presented in this paper. While this scheme takes a little longer than Rodi's algorithm, it enables a more accurate determination of the Jacobian information. It is found that the Jacobian elements can be produced in 10% of the time required to calculate an inverse matrix or to calculate a 2D starting model. A modification of the algorithm can further be used to improve the accuracy of the original inverse matrix calculated in a 2D finite difference program and hence the solution this program produces. The convergence of the iteration scheme is found to be related both to the originally calculated inverse matrix and to the change in the newly formed matrix arising from perturbation of the model parameter. A ridge regression inverse algorithm is used in conjunction with the iterative scheme for forward modelling described in this paper to produce a 2D conductivity section from field data.     

Fitting a stochastic partial differential equation to aquifer data

The steady state two dimensional groundwater flow equation with constant transmissivities was studied by Whittle in 1954 as a stochastic Laplace equation. He showed that the correlation function consisted of a modified Bessel function of the second kind, order 1, multiplied by its argument. This paper uses this pioneering work of Whittle to fit an aquifer head field to unequally spaced observations by maximum likelihood. Observational error is also included in the model. Both the isotropic and anisotropic cases are considered. The fitted field is then calculated on a two dimensional grid together with its standard deviation. The method is closely related to the use of two-dimensional splines for fitting surfaces to irregularly spaced observations.     

郑州大学体育馆钢屋盖动力特性分析

以郑州大学新校区体育馆钢屋盖为研究对象,采用ANSYS分析程序,建立了钢屋盖空间结构计算模型,利用子空间迭代法计算自振周期和振型,从而得到钢屋盖动力特性,为进一步研究该结构的动力响应打下基础。     

地球磁层里磁泡的跨尾尺度研究

爆发流(Busty Bulk Flows)事件是发生在地球磁层里的等离子体输运现象,磁泡模型能很好地解释这一过程.现有的理论和观测事实已给出了对磁泡在跨尾方向上的尺度以及其他重要的物理参数的估计,但由于观测手段的限制这些参数并不十分精确,而只是个数值域.本文从最新的Tsyganenko磁层模型出发,利用磁泡在极光区根部的位置参数和自编的磁力线跟踪程序,通过映射给出了对应的磁泡在磁赤道面跨尾方向上的尺度.计算结果与理论预计和观测事实相符.     

Seismomagnetic response of a fault zone

Based on the results of instrumental observations of geomagnetic variations caused by the propagation of seismic waves through a fault zone, the dependences between the amplitudes of the induced seismomagnetic effect and seismic signal as a function of distance r to the midline of the fault are obtained. For the first time, it is shown that the amplitude of the seismomagnetic effect is maximal in the fault damage zone. The phenomenological model describing the generation of magnetic signals by seismic waves propagating through the crushed rock in the tectonic fault zone is suggested. It is assumed that geomagnetic variations are generated by the changes in the electrical conductivity of the fragmented rocks as a result of the deformation of the rock pieces contacts. The amplitudes of the geomagnetic variations calculated from the model agree with the instrumental observations.