大气气溶胶研究的前沿问题

从4个方面对大气气溶胶研究的前沿问题作了总结和分析：气溶胶的基本特征、气溶胶的气候效应、沙尘气溶胶以及气溶胶对健康环境的影响。介绍了当前国际上有关的大气气溶胶研究计划,讨论了未来大气气溶胶研究的主要领域及研究方向。     

中国气溶胶研究近况

近年来，中国科学家对气溶胶进行了广泛的研究，取得了一系列的研究成果。本文从气溶胶的基本特性、气溶胶的气候效应和沙尘气溶胶等方面对上述气溶胶研究近况进行了总结。介绍了当前国际上有关的大气气溶胶研究计划，讨论了未来大气气溶胶研究的主要领域及研究方向。     

大气气溶胶吸湿性质国内外研究进展

大气气溶胶的吸湿性质是联系气溶胶微物理、化学参数的桥梁和纽带之一,更是气溶胶基本光学性质的决定性参数之一,因此研究气溶胶吸湿性质在整个大气气溶胶科学研究中处于基础地位。对气溶胶吸湿性质的研究意义、研究方法与技术、主要研究结论做了系统回顾,并指出该研究领域存在的不足并对未来的研究方向做出展望。众多研究者从实验室分析、外场实验、数值模拟3个方面来研究颗粒物的吸湿性质,研究表明大气气溶胶的吸湿性质对研究大气能见度、大气辐射强迫具有重要影响。国内对大气气溶胶吸湿性质的研究数量偏少,研究方法单一,在国内广泛开展气溶胶吸湿性质的研究非常必要。     

青藏高原大气气溶胶研究进展

文中综述了近30年来青藏高原大气气溶胶的研究现状,包括青藏高原大气气溶胶光学厚度、气溶胶面密度等的时空变化特征,大气气溶胶化学成分分析及气候效应的研究等。大多利用卫星、激光雷达及地面采样等资料分析研究气溶胶。青藏高原大气气溶胶研究已经取得了显著进展。文中主要综述了该领域的研究成果,并对其今后的研究进行了展望。     

大气气溶胶散射吸湿增长特性研究进展

大气气溶胶的散射吸湿增长特性反映了相对湿度对气溶胶散射能力的影响。研究气溶胶散射吸湿增长对于评估气溶胶辐射强迫、了解气溶胶对大气能见度的影响具有重要意义。文中对气溶胶散射吸湿增长特性的研究意义、监测方法、中外研究进展、参数化拟合和模型模拟等方面进行了系统回顾和总结,并对未来发展方向做出展望。中国在该领域开展的研究数量偏少,广泛开展气溶胶散射吸湿增长特性研究十分必要。     

不同吸湿性的气溶胶对云和降水影响研究进展

气溶胶、云、降水相互关系是现今大气科学的前沿领域。本文总体概括了气溶胶作为云凝结核和冰核,对云宏微观物理特性及降水的影响原理研究的主要成果。并根据气溶胶自身化学性质的吸湿性,从吸湿性气溶胶和非吸湿性气溶胶两方面,重点探讨了模拟研究中,硫酸盐、海盐、沙尘、黑碳气溶胶对于云和降水的影响,以及各类气溶胶与其它类型气溶胶相比,作用于云降水的不同方式。提出之前研究工作的不足,以期为今后该方向的研究提供一些思路。      

青藏高原地区气溶胶及其对降水影响的研究进展

青藏高原（简称高原）气溶胶主要来自周边地区的输送,近年来,随着人为污染加剧和气候条件变化,高原及周边地区气溶胶的特性和气候效应越来越受关注。而高原降水一直是高原气象与气候学的重点,气溶胶对高原降水的影响正逐渐成为研究热点。本文总结了高原气溶胶及其对降水影响的相关研究成果,从气溶胶特性观测（站点和卫星观测）研究、“气溶胶-辐射相互作用”、“气溶胶-云相互作用” 影响降水研究以及气溶胶影响降水中化学组分研究等方面进行了综述,并对未来研究方向进行了展望。     

华南气溶胶研究的回顾与展望

大气气溶胶的气候效应研究和环境效应研究都是当今国际科技界的热门研究话题,而研究大气气溶胶的气候效应和环境效应都必须充分细致地了解气溶胶的粒子谱分布、化学组成和辐射(光学)特性,其中大气气溶胶的辐射(光学)性质的直接观测研究是目前甚为紧迫的研究内容,其结果能直接为气溶胶强迫对气候变化的估计和预测的模式研究及其环境效应的研究提供必须的参数.     

中国大气气溶胶辐射特性参数的观测与研究进展

长期系统的气溶胶辐射特性观测资料是定量研究气溶胶辐射和气候效应的重要基础.本文综合介绍中国大气气溶胶辐射特性观测与研究现状和成果,重点包括以下内容:地面太阳光度计联网观测气溶胶光学厚度、单次散射反照率、尺度谱;从全波段太阳辐射反演气溶胶光学厚度、单次散射反照率;浊度计和黑碳仪测量地面气溶胶散射系数和吸收系数;地基/星载激光雷达观测气溶胶(后向散射系数)垂直分布;极轨/静止卫星遥感反演气溶胶光学特性.     

近年来大气气溶胶模式研究综述

该文对当前大气气溶胶模式的发展和应用作了简单的回顾和评述, 介绍了较流行的几个气溶胶热力学平衡模式和适用于城市-区域空气质量研究的气溶胶模式的特点, 并对发展一个完全的气溶胶动力-化学模式的复杂性进行了探讨, 指出未来气溶胶模式发展和改进还需要在有机气溶胶的形成和转化机制, 云、雾等条件下气溶胶的形成和转化, 以及复杂的气溶胶物理、化学过程与区域、全球模式的耦合等几个方面进行研究。     

Correlation between climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing and its implication for the “climate trap”

Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing are dominant uncertain properties of the global climate system. Their estimates based on the inverse approach are interdependent as historical temperature records constrain possible combinations. Nevertheless, many literature projections of future climate are based on the probability density of climate sensitivity and an independent aerosol forcing without considering the interdependency of such estimates. Here we investigate how large such parameter interdependency affects the range of future warming in two distinct settings: one following the A1B emission scenario till the year 2100 and the other assuming a shutdown of all greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions in the year 2020. We demonstrate that the range of projected warming decreases in the former case, but considerably broadens in the latter case, if the correlation between climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing is taken into account. Our conceptual study suggests that, unless the interdependency between the climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing estimates is properly considered, one could underestimate a risk involving the “climate trap”, an unpalatable situation with a high climate sensitivity in which a very drastic mitigation may counter-intuitively accelerate the warming by unmasking the hidden warming due to aerosols.     

大气气溶胶变化对农业影响的研究进展

随着工业化和城市化的迅速发展,大气气溶胶含量和种类明显增加,它们通过直接吸收和反射太阳辐射以及改变其它辐射强迫因子(云、臭氧)的大小间接影响地气系统的能量收支,从而影响气候。气溶胶变化对气候的影响已有较多的研究,而对植被(农业)的影响是一个相对较新的研究领域,文章简要概述了大气气溶胶辐射强迫效应和大气气溶胶对农业的影响研究现状及国内外主要研究成果,并对气溶胶监测方法及模式评估方面可能存在的问题作了简单的分析。     

Review and Development on the Studies of Chinese Meteorological Satellite and Satellite Meteorology

Meteorological satellite and satellite meteorology are the fastest developing new branches in the atmospheric sciences. Today the meteorological satellite has become a key element in the global atmospheric sounding system while the satellite meteorology is covering the main components of earth's system science. This article describes the major achievements that China has made in these fields in the past 30 years. The following contents are involved: (1) History and present status of China's meteorological satellites. It covers the development, launch, operation, technical parameters of China's polar and geostationary meteorological satellites. (2) Major achievements on remote sensing principle and method. It describes the retrieval of atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles, cloud character retrieval, aerosol character retrieval, precipitation retrieval as well as the generation of cloud wind. (3) Achievement on the studies of meteorological satellite data application. This part covers the applications of meteorological satellite data to weather analysis and forecast, numerical forecast, climate monitoring, and prediction of short-term climate change. Besides, the new results on data assimilation, climate monitoring, and forecast are also included.     

Greenhouse-gas versus aerosol forcing and African climate response

There are many indicators that human activity may change climate conditions all around the globe through emissions of greenhouse gases. In addition, aerosol particles are emitted from various natural and anthropogenic sources. One important source of aerosols arises from biomass burning, particularly in low latitudes where shifting cultivation and land degradation lead to enhanced aerosol burden. In this study the counteracting effects of greenhouse gases and aerosols on African climate are compared using climate model experiments with fully interactive aerosols from different sources. The consideration of aerosol emissions induces a remarkable decrease in short-wave solar irradiation near the surface, especially in winter and autumn in tropical West Africa and the Congo Basin where biomass burning is mainly prevailing. This directly leads to a modification of the surface energy budget with reduced sensible heat fluxes. As a consequence, temperature decreases, compensating the strong warming signal due to enhanced trace gas concentrations. While precipitation in tropical Africa is less sensitive to the greenhouse warming, it tends to decrease, if the effect of aerosols from biomass burning is taken into account. This is partly due to the local impact of enhanced aerosol burden and partly to modifications of the large-scale monsoon circulation in the lower troposphere, usually lagging behind the season with maximum aerosol emissions. In the model equilibrium experiments, the greenhouse gas impact on temperature stands out from internal variability at various time scales from daily to decadaland the same holds for precipitation under the additional aerosol forcing. Greenhouse gases and aerosols exhibit an opposite effect on daily temperature extremes, resulting in an compensation of the individual responses under the combined forcing. In terms of precipitation, daily extreme events tend to be reduced under aerosol forcing, particularly over the tropical Atlantic and the Congo basin. These results suggest that the simulation of the multiple aerosol effects from anthropogenic sources represents an important factor in tropical climate change, hence, requiring more attention in climate modelling attempts.     

The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth’s climate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for a different approach: to geoengineer climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) the potential for a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing and (ii) the negative impacts associated with the aerosol forcing. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geoengineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcing. The simplicity of the model provides the advantages of parsimony and transparency, but it also imposes severe caveats on the interpretation of the results. For example, the analysis is based on a globally aggregated model and is hence silent on intragenerational distribution of costs and benefits. In addition, the analysis neglects the effects of learning and has a very simplistic representation of climate change impacts. Our analysis suggests three main conclusions. First, substituting aerosol geoengineering for CO₂ abatement can be an economically ineffective strategy. One key to this finding is that a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing can lead to sizeable and abrupt climatic changes. The monetary damages due to such a discontinuous aerosol geoengineering can dominate the cost-benefit analysis because the monetary damages of climate change are expected to increase with the rate of change. Second, the relative contribution of aerosol geoengineering to an economically optimal portfolio hinges critically on, thus far, deeply uncertain estimates of the damages due to aerosol forcing. Even if we assume that aerosol forcing could be deployed continuously, the aerosol geoengineering does not considerably displace CO₂ abatement in the simple economic optimal growth model until the damages due to the aerosol forcing are rather low. Third, substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emission abatement can fail an ethical test regarding intergenerational justice. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emissions abatements constitutes a conscious risk transfer to future generations, in violation of principles of intergenerational justice which demands that present generations should not create benefits for themselves in exchange for burdens on future generations.     

国内外气溶胶观测网络发展进展及相关科学计划

气溶胶是气候变化研究中的一个极大的不确定性因素,国内外在此方面开展了大量的观测和科学研究。本文首先对当前全球两大气溶胶观测网络,世界气象组织(WMO)的全球大气观测计划(GAW)和气溶胶自动观测网(AERONET)的组织、规模、设备、数据和气溶胶网络的规范作了介绍,并对近年来国际上的重大气溶胶科学计划的目标、实验方法、步骤作了介绍,说明观测网络的重要性。在此基础上对中国气溶胶观测网络的地位做了分析,并指出其在正在开展的中国气溶胶科学研究中的重要性。     

黄土高原南部末次冰期以来沙尘气溶胶的气候效应

沙尘气溶胶是地球上分布最广的自然气溶胶类型之一,也是气候系统中的重要成分。沙尘天气严重影响人类生产、生活和居住环境,对气候变化也存在显著作用。近年来,沙尘气溶胶的气候效应得到越来越多的关注和研究,但人们的工作主要集中在对现代沙尘气溶胶的研究,而对过去沙尘气溶胶气候效应的研究不多。本研究利用黄土粒度及沉积特征,根据现代沙尘暴的沉降特点,研究了60 kaB.P以来中国黄土高原南部地区沙尘气溶胶的辐射效应,结果表明：1）沙尘气溶胶产生的辐射效应主要表现在造成行星系统太阳辐射反射量的普遍增加,即沙尘过程具有明显的降温效应。2）气候效应上主要表现为对气候的负反馈。由沙尘粒度引起的行星反照率在全新世适宜期达最大值,而在冰期有最小值出现;在气候降温事件中,沙尘气溶胶造成行星反照率降低;每一次降温事件发生时气溶胶的降温效应会相应减弱。约60 kaB.P以来沙尘气溶胶给年均温度带来的影响是使其平均降幅在－0.8 K左右。3）利用黄土的粒度分布,结合现代气溶胶的观测可以估算地质时期沙尘气溶胶的气候效应。