Latin hypercube approach to estimate uncertainty in ground water vulnerability

A methodology is proposed to quantify prediction uncertainty associated with ground water vulnerability models that were developed through an approach that coupled multivariate logistic regression with a geographic information system (GIS). This method uses Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) to illustrate the propagation of input error and estimate uncertainty associated with the logistic regression predictions of ground water vulnerability. Central to the proposed method is the assumption that prediction uncertainty in ground water vulnerability models is a function of input error propagation from uncertainty in the estimated logistic regression model coefficients (model error) and the values of explanatory variables represented in the GIS (data error). Input probability distributions that represent both model and data error sources of uncertainty were simultaneously sampled using a Latin hypercube approach with logistic regression calculations of probability of elevated nonpoint source contaminants in ground water. The resulting probability distribution represents the prediction intervals and associated uncertainty of the ground water vulnerability predictions. The method is illustrated through a ground water vulnerability assessment of the High Plains regional aquifer. Results of the LHS simulations reveal significant prediction uncertainties that vary spatially across the regional aquifer. Additionally, the proposed method enables a spatial deconstruction of the prediction uncertainty that can lead to improved prediction of ground water vulnerability.     

The synergistic powers of AEM and GIS geodatabase models in water resources studies

Comprehensive studies of water resources systems require integration of modeling tools and data associated with individual processes. An object-oriented approach is presented here that associates ground water models based upon the analytic element method (AEM) with geographic information system (GIS) geodatabase features using an AEM Model Interface. Each aquifer object contains a prescribed geometry, a mathematical representation in the AEM, and GIS hydrogeologic data. The synergistic understanding inherent in such an approach is illustrated by a study linking local AEM model predictions of water elevation with ground water geodatabase objects. This AEM Model Interface provides a key component in establishing a common object-oriented geodatabase modeling approach linking ground water to a variety of natural and social processes.     

Rigorous landslide hazard zonation using Newmark's method and stochastic ground motion simulation

Researchers and practitioners in earthquake engineering have recognized geographic information systems (GIS) to be a significant tool in modeling spatial phenomenon related to hazard and risk. GIS, as an engineering tool, has been primarily used for its spatial data storing and presentation features. Models are often simplified to be more compatible with the light computational capabilities of many GIS. If not simplified, heavy computations are generally performed external to the GIS. A prototype vector-based GIS was developed that employs a rigorous approach to Newmark's displacement method for assessing earthquake triggered landslide hazards. The rigorous Newmark's analysis provides desirable flexibility by allowing input of actual ground motions. The prototype hazard GIS incorporates a popular shot filtered noise technique for generating artificial ground motions. The rigorous approach was compared to a popular simplified approach for computing Newmark displacements. Distribution of regional displacements was found to be similar with the simplified approach giving more and larger extreme displacements. The rigorous approach is suitable for large scales to model various seismic scenarios and their effect on seismically induced landslide potential.     

Estimating ground water recharge from topography, hydrogeology, and land cover

Proper management of ground water resources requires knowledge of the rates and spatial distribution of recharge to aquifers. This information is needed at scales ranging from that of individual communities to regional. This paper presents a methodology to calculate recharge from readily available ground surface information without long-term monitoring. The method is viewed as providing a reasonable, but conservative, first approximation of recharge, which can then be fine-tuned with other methods as time permits. Stream baseflow was measured as a surrogate for recharge in small watersheds in southeastern Wisconsin. It is equated to recharge (R) and then normalized to observed annual precipitation (P). Regression analysis was constrained by requiring that the independent and dependent variables be dimensionally consistent. It shows that R/P is controlled by three dimensionless ratios: (1) infiltrating to overland water flux, (2) vertical to lateral distance water must travel, and (3) percentage of land cover in the natural state. The individual watershed properties that comprise these ratios are now commonly available in GIS data bases. The empirical relationship for predicting R/P developed for the study watersheds is shown to be statistically viable and is then tested outside the study area and against other methods of calculating recharge. The method produces values that agree with baseflow separation from streamflow hydrographs (to within 15% to 20%), ground water budget analysis (4%), well hydrograph analysis (12%), and a distributed-parameter watershed model calibrated to total streamflow (18%). It has also reproduced the temporal variation over 5 yr observed at a well site with an average error < 12%.     

Scales and uncertainties in using models and GIS for volcano hazard prediction

Practical decision-making in civil protection based on predicting volcano hazards often involves using process models linked with Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Optimum use of these techniques for such decision-support requires careful and coordinated consideration of process, data and model scales and their related uncertainties. To avoid wasting resources and time on inappropriate data collection, improper model use, and resultant poor decision-making, there is a pressing need for a scientific and functional framework within which to examine implementation and use of geo-spatial assessment tools. To be useful for researchers and decision-makers, volcano hazard simulation approaches must consider the spatial and temporal variability in volcano processes and the data collected representing those. The successful application and implementation of a geo-spatial distributed volcano hazard model at variable scales requires explicit or implicit use of some form of scaling theory applied to the tasks of selection and transformation of appropriate data, and use of results. In general, there are five consecutive scaling steps that demonstrate how data and model scale, as well as the methods for information transformation between these, play key roles in controlling whether prediction results have been produced efficiently and are appropriate at the scale of interest for a civil protection manager's decision-making process. This new scaling theory can be used as a framework to construct practical procedures for applying GIS-Model-based volcano models that allow effective model application based on realistic data availability and environmental settings.     

Embedding isochronous cells overland flow module into MODFLOW

This study integrates a simple overland flow module (isochronous cells model) with the river module of MODFLOW such that temporal and spatial interactions between stream flow and groundwater can be simulated using net rainfall data of a watershed. The isochronous cells model is an efficient travel time runoff approach based on geographic information system (GIS) that considers both spatial and temporal variations of net rainfall through hill slope of the watershed. This overland module is easily coupled with MODFLOW river routing module. Specifically, the stream flow from the isochronous cells model is directly assigned to both sides of river cells of the MODFLOW model. Such an integration of MODFLOW and isochronous cells model is especially useful in watersheds where river flow data are limited. The feasibility of this integrated model was demonstrated using a case study in the middle and downstream regions of the Yitong River watershed, China. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Delineation of regional arid karstic aquifers: an integrative data approach

This research integrates data procedures for the delineation of regional ground water flow systems in arid karstic basins with sparse hydrogeologic data using surface topography data, geologic mapping, permeability data, chloride concentrations of ground water and precipitation, and measured discharge data. This integrative data analysis framework can be applied to evaluate arid karstic aquifer systems globally. The accurate delineation of ground water recharge areas in developing aquifer systems with sparse hydrogeologic data is essential for their effective long-term development and management. We illustrate the use of this approach in the Cuatrociénegas Basin (CCB) of Mexico. Aquifers are characterized using geographic information systems for ground water catchment delineation, an analytical model for interbasin flow evaluation, a chloride balance approach for recharge estimation, and a water budget for mapping contributing catchments over a large region. The test study area includes the CCB of Coahuila, Mexico, a UNESCO World Biosphere Reserve containing more than 500 springs that support ground water-dependent ecosystems with more than 70 endemic organisms and irrigated agriculture. We define recharge areas that contribute local and regional ground water discharge to springs and the regional flow system. Results show that the regional aquifer system follows a topographic gradient that during past pluvial periods may have linked the Río Nazas and the Río Aguanaval of the Sierra Madre Occidental to the Río Grande via the CCB and other large, currently dry, upgradient lakes.     

Spatial zonations for regional assessment of seismic site effects in the Seoul metropolitan area

Earthquake-induced hazards are profoundly affected by site effects related to the amplification of ground motions, which are strongly influenced by local geologic conditions such as soil thickness or bedrock depth and soil stiffness. In this study, an integrated geographic information system (GIS)-based system for geotechnical data, called the geotechnical information system (GTIS), was developed to establish a regional counterplan against earthquake ground motions in the Seoul metropolitan area. In particular, to reliably predict spatial geotechnical information, a procedural methodology for building the GTIS within a GIS framework was developed and applied to the Seoul area in Korea. To build the GTIS, pre-existing geotechnical data were collected in and around the study area, and then a walk-over site survey was conducted to acquire surface geo-knowledge data. In addition, the representative shear wave velocities for geotechnical layers were derived by statistically analyzing many seismic test data in Korea. The GTIS was used in a practical application to estimate site effects in the study area; seismic zoning maps of geotechnical earthquake parameters, such as the depth to bedrock and the site period, were created and presented as a regional synthetic strategy for earthquake risk assessment. Furthermore, seismic zonation of site classification was also performed to determine the site amplification coefficients for seismic design and seismic performance evaluation at any site and administrative sub-unit in the study area. The methodology and results of the case study of seismic zonations in the Seoul area verified that the GIS-based GTIS can be very useful for the regional estimation of seismic risk and also to support decisions regarding seismic hazard mitigation, particularly in the metropolitan area.     

Application of Ground Penetrating Radar Surveys and GPS Surveys for Monitoring the Condition of Levees and Dykes

This paper analyses the possibility of using integrated GPS (Global Positioning System) surveys and ground penetrating radar surveys to precisely locate damages to levees, particularly due to the activity of small fossorial mammals. The technology of intercommunication between ground penetrating radar (GPR) and an RTK (Real-Time Kinematic) survey unit, and the method of data combination, are presented. The errors which may appear during the survey work are also characterized. The procedure for processing the data so that the final results have a spatial character and are ready to be implemented in digital maps and geographic information systems (GIS) is also described.     

Regional estimation of total recharge to ground water in Nebraska

Naturally occurring long-term mean annual recharge to ground water in Nebraska was estimated by a novel water-balance approach. This approach uses geographic information systems (GIS) layers of land cover, elevation of land and ground water surfaces, base recharge, and the recharge potential in combination with monthly climatic data. Long-term mean recharge > 140 mm per year was estimated in eastern Nebraska, having the highest annual precipitation rates within the state, along the Elkhorn, Platte, Missouri, and Big Nemaha River valleys where ground water is very close to the surface. Similarly high recharge values were obtained for the Sand Hills sections of the North and Middle Loup, as well as Cedar River and Beaver Creek valleys due to high infiltration rates of the sandy soil in the area. The westernmost and southwesternmost parts of the state were estimated to typically receive < 30 mm of recharge a year.     

Two‐dimensional continuous simulation of spatiotemporally varied hydrological processes using the time‐area method

Distributed, continuous hydrologic models promote better understanding of hydrology and enable integrated hydrologic analyses by providing a more detailed picture of water transport processes across the varying landscape. However, such models are not widely used in routine modelling practices, due in part to the extensive data input requirements, computational demands, and complexity of routing algorithms. We developed a two‐dimensional continuous hydrologic model, HYSTAR, using a time‐area method within a grid‐based spatial data model with the goal of providing an alternative way to simulate spatiotemporally varied watershed‐scale hydrologic processes. The model calculates the direct runoff hydrograph by coupling a time‐area routing scheme with a dynamic rainfall excess sub‐model implemented here using a modified curve number method with an hourly time step, explicitly considering downstream ‘reinfiltration’ of routed surface runoff. Soil moisture content is determined at each time interval based on a water balance equation, and overland and channel runoff is routed on time‐area maps, representing spatial variation in hydraulic characteristics for each time interval in a storm event. Simulating runoff hydrographs does not depend on unit hydrograph theory or on solution of the Saint Venant equation, yet retains the simplicity of a unit hydrograph approach and the capability of explicitly simulating two‐dimensional flow routing. The model provided acceptable performance in predicting daily and monthly runoff for a 6‐year period for a watershed in Virginia (USA) using readily available geographic information about the watershed landscape. Spatial and temporal variability in simulated effective runoff depth and time area maps dynamically show the areas of the watershed contributing to the direct runoff hydrograph at the outlet over time, consistent with the variable source area overland flow generation mechanism. The model offers a way to simulate watershed processes and runoff hydrographs using the time‐area method, providing a simple, efficient, and sound framework that explicitly represents mechanisms of spatially and temporally varied hydrologic processes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of hydropower potential using spatial technology and SWAT modelling in the Mat River,southern Mizoram,India

Abstract

In this study, a hydrological model and spatial technologies have been employed to assess water availability in the Mat River basin, southern Mizoram, India. Furthermore, the results obtained from the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model, satellite data and GIS tools were utilized to identify the hydropower potential in the basin. Thirty three sites with hydropower potential were identified within 147 km² of the Mat River basin. A total of 3039, 1127 and 805 kW can be harnessed with 50, 75 and 90% dependability, respectively. The study revealed that the hydropower potential of a river basin can be correctly assessed by employing a digital elevation model, stream network data and a hydrological model, such as the SWAT model, within a GIS framework.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

PRO-GRADE: GIS toolkits for ground water recharge and discharge estimation

PRO-GRADE is an ESRI ArcGIS 9.2 plug-in package that consists of two separate toolkits: (1) the p attern r ecognition o rganizer for g eographic i nformation s ystem (PRO-GIS) and (2) the g round water r echarge a nd d ischarge e stimator for GIS (GRADE-GIS). PRO-GIS is a collection of several existing image-processing algorithms into one user interface to offer the flexibility to extract spatial patterns according to the user's needs. GRADE-GIS is a ground water recharge and discharge estimation interface using a mass balance method that requires only hydraulic conductivity, water table, and bedrock elevation data for simulating two-dimensional steady-state unconfined aquifers. PRO-GRADE was developed to assist ongoing assessments of the water resources in Illinois and Wisconsin, and is being used to assist several ground water resource studies in several locations in the United States. The advantage of using PRO-GRADE is to enable fast production of initial recharge and discharge maps that can be further enhanced by using a follow-up ground water flow model with parameter estimation codes. PRO-GRADE leverages ArcGIS to provide a computer-assisted framework to support expert judgment in order to efficiently select alternative recharge and discharge maps that can be used as (1) guidelines for field study planning and decision making; (2) initial conditions for numerical simulation; and (3) screening for alternative model selection and prediction/parameter uncertainty evaluation. In addition, PRO-GRADE allows for more easy and rapid correlation of those maps with other hydrologically relevant geospatial data.     

Seismotectonic database of Turkey

Turkey is located in one of the most seismically active regions in the world. Characterizing seismic source zones in this region requires evaluation and integration of geological, geophysical, seismological and geodetical data. This first seismotectonic database for Turkey presented herein was prepared, under the framework of the National Earthquake Strategy and Action Plan—2023. The geographic information system (GIS)-based database includes maps of active faults, catalogues of instrumental and historical earthquakes, moment tensor solutions and data on crustal thickness. On the basis of these data, 18 major seismotectonic zones were delineated for Turkey and the surrounding region. The compilation and storage of the seismotectonic data sets in a digital GIS will allow analyses and systematic updates as new data accrete over time.     

A method of urban ecological risk assessment: combining the multimedia fugacity model and GIS

Industrial pollution has caused serious human health risk because the pollutants can be accumulated in human body via multi routes in a long term, especially in areas of rapid industrialization. It is of great importance to obtain the pollutants’ information, including the transport routes and spatial distribution in the various environmental media of different sub-regions, to facilitate more accurate risk assessment and more effective risk management in urban ecosystems. In this article, we proposed a research framework of urban ecological risk assessment method, which combines the multimedia fugacity model, the multi-route exposure model, exposure-risk relationships and geographic information system (GIS). An urban ecological risk assessment of a hypothetical region indicates that it is possible and feasible to introduce GIS into the previous method to satisfy the requirements of risk management. The assessment results can be further utilized for industrial pollution emission control.     

Assessing spatial likelihood of flooding hazard using naïve Bayes and GIS: a case study in Bowen Basin,Australia

Flooding hazard evaluation is the basis of flooding risk assessment which has significances to natural environment, human life and social economy. This study develops a spatial framework integrating naïve Bayes (NB) and geographic information system (GIS) to assess flooding hazard at regional scale. The methodology was demonstrated in the Bowen Basin in Australia as a case study. The inputs into the framework are five indices: elevation, slope, soil water retention, drainage proximity and density. They were derived from spatial data processed in ArcGIS. NB as a simplified and efficient type of Bayesian methods was used, with the assistance of remotely sensed flood inundation extent in the sampling process, to infer flooding probability on a cell-by-cell basis over the study area. A likelihood-based flooding hazard map was output from the GIS-based framework. The results reveal elevation and slope have more significant impacts on evaluation than other input indices. Area of high likelihood of flooding hazard is mainly located in the west and the southwest where there is a high water channel density, and along the water channels in the east of the study area. High likelihood of flooding hazard covers 45 % of the total area, medium likelihood accounts for about 12 %, low and very low likelihood represents 19 and 24 %, respectively. The results provide baseline information to identify and assess flooding hazard when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in the study offer an integrated approach in evaluation of flooding hazard with spatial distributions and indicative uncertainties. It can also be applied to other hazard assessments.     

Geospatial-temporal analysis of land-use changes in the Yellow River Delta during the last 40 years

Research on land use/land cover changes (LUCC)has been the core project of the Global EnvironmentalChanges since the 1990s[1—6]. Scientists at home andabroad have been laying emphasis on integrationstudies on land-use change by “space and process”features[7—10] as researches on LUCC are in a greatdeal. It is of paramount important for us to studyLUCC at various spatial-temporal scales and build aquantitative assessment of land-use conversion by in-tegrated spatial-temporal features. …     

A ubiquitous knowledgeable data representation model (UKRM) for three-dimensional geographic information systems (3D GIS)

In the face of complicated, diversified three-dimensional world, the existing 3D GIS data models suffer from certain issues such as data incompatibility, insufficiency in data representation and representation types, among others. It is often hard to meet the requirements of multiple application purposes (users) related to GIS spatial data management and data query and analysis, especially in the case of massive spatial objects. In this study, according to the habits of human thinking and recognition, discrete expressions (such as discrete curved surface (DCS), and discrete body (DB)) were integrated and two novel representation types (including function structure and mapping structure) were put forward. A flexible and extensible ubiquitous knowledgeable data representation model (UKRM) was then constructed, in which structurally heterogeneous multiple expressions (including boundary representation (B-rep), constructive solid geometry (CSG), functional/parameter representation, etc.) were normalized. GIS’s ability in representing the massive, complicated and diversified 3D world was thus greatly enhanced. In addition, data reuse was realized, and the bridge linking static GIS to dynamic GIS was built up. Primary experimental results illustrated that UKRM was overwhelmingly superior to the current data models (e.g. IFC, CityGML) in describing both regular and irregular spatial objects.     

ESTIMATION OF SOIL PARAMETERS FOR ASSESSING POTENTIAL WETNESS: COMPARISON OF MODEL RESPONSES THROUGH GIS

A geographic information system (GIS) is utilized to model wetness potential for a portion of Uwharrie National Forest, North Carolina. The wetness index is derived from TOPMODEL, a hillslope-scale runoff simulation model. The wetness index is a distributed-parameter model, with the input parameters obtained from a digital elevation model (DEM) and Soil Conservation Service (SCS) soils data. The primary objectives of the research are to: (1) compare methods of estimating soil parameters for input into the wetness potential model; and (2) determine how the model outputs vary spatially as a consequence of different methods of estimating soil parameters. Three methods of estimating soil parameters are used: (a) assuming uniform soil properties; (b) using SCS data presented as ranges; and (c) using alternative literature-based estimates of soil parameters. Results indicate that the wetness model responds similarly regardless of how the soil parameters are estimated, but differences in the spatial variability of the wetness potentials occur as a result of estimating soil parameters through alternative approaches. Correlation, pair-wise regression and analysis of regression residuals are used to compare model responses within a GIS environment.     

Estimation of potential evapotranspiration in the mountainous Panama Canal watershed

Spatially distributed hydrometeorological and plant information within the mountainous tropical Panama Canal watershed is used to estimate parameters of the Penman–Monteith evapotranspiration formulation. Hydrometeorological data from a few surface climate stations located at low elevations in the watershed are complemented by (a) typical wet‐ and dry‐season fields of temperature, wind, water vapour and pressure produced by a mesoscale atmospheric model with a 3 × 3 km² spatial and hourly temporal resolution, and (b) leaf area index fields estimated over the watershed during a few years using satellite data with two different spatial and temporal resolutions. The mesoscale model estimates of spatially distributed surface hydrometeorological variables provide the basis for the extrapolation of the surface climate station data to produce input for the Penman–Monteith equation. The satellite information and existing digital spatial databases of land use and land cover form the basis for the estimation of Penman–Monteith spatially distributed parameter values. Spatially distributed 3 × 3 km² potential evapotranspiration estimates are obtained for the 3300 km² Panama Canal watershed. Estimates for Gatun Lake within the watershed are found to reproduce well the monthly and annual lake evaporation obtained from submerged pans. Sensitivity analysis results of potential evapotranspiration estimates with respect to cloud cover, dew formation, leaf area index distribution and mesoscale model estimates of surface climate are presented and discussed. The main conclusion is that even the limited spatially distributed hydrometeorological and plant information used in this study contributes significantly toward explaining the substantial spatial variability of potential evapotranspiration in the watershed. These results also allow the determination of key locations within the watershed where additional surface stations may be profitably placed. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.