澳大利亚气象研究中心的轨迹计算及其应用

从天气分析和预报提供的后向轨迹信息可以加强预报指导。澳大利亚气象研究中心（ＢＭＲＣ）开发了一个计算三维后向和前向轨迹的软件，使用的资料是澳大利亚气象局有限区域３６小时３个风速分量的业务预报。它们有三种可用的输出形式；后向轨迹、前向轨迹及３６小时气块垂直位移等值线场。这个软件已用于分析诊断研究。     

海面空气阻力系数CD计算方法的研究

本文根据边界层气象学的最新成果提出两个由常规海上气象观测资料求阻力系数C_D的方法,一个由海气温差及10米高处的风速,另一由地转风速及边界层上下界之间的位温差△θ,此二法可直接应用于实际计算及模式中求C_D。     

质点轨迹的一种计算方法

本文介绍一种空气质点空间轨迹的计算方法,并利用十层有限区模式的数值预报结果作为原始资料输入来进行质点三维轨迹的计算。对影响暴雨的水汽源地进行了分析。文章还对原始数据的时间分辨率对轨迹计算的精度影响进行分析,得出时间分辨率越高,轨迹越准确,当时间分辨率达12小时间隔,则只能计算12小时的轨迹,12小时之后的轨迹偏差太大。文中介绍的方法还可用于污染扩散。     

气候变化对江西省主要室外空气计算参数的影响

利用江西83个地面气象站1963—2022年逐日平均气温和14时气温数据,计算每10 a滑动平均采暖室外计算温度、夏季空气调节室外计算日平均温度、冬季通风室外计算温度和夏季通风室外计算温度,分析江西省气候变化及其对室外空气计算参数的影响。结果表明：江西省年平均气温呈明显上升趋势,其中赣北地区上升幅度大于赣南、赣中南部,冬季平均气温增加趋势（0.31℃/（10 a））大于夏季（0.14 ℃/（10 a））,冬季平均气温在1997年发生显著突变,之后冬季平均气温较多年平均值高0.6℃。气候变化背景下,室外空气计算参数变化明显,采暖室外计算温度、夏季空气调节计算温度和冬季通风室外计算温度呈升高趋势,夏季通风室外计算温度的变化趋势不明显。其中,冬季室外计算温度的上升幅度高于夏季,赣北地区的东部和中南部升高趋势较大。采暖室外计算温度升高,建筑的传热负荷设计值减小;夏季空气调节室外计算温度的升高使新风负荷增加,增加室内空气冷却能耗;冬季通风室外计算温度的升高有利于减小冬季通风负荷。     

三维超声风速仪观测中风向角计算方法

在对三维超声风速仪观测资料处理中,风向角的计算具有一定的技巧性。根据三维超声风速仪自身观测坐标系统与地理坐标系之间的差异,推导出计算地理坐标系下风向角的一种方法,为超声风观测资料的处理和应用提供借鉴。同时利用锡林浩特国家气候观象台2008年全年通量观测资料对风向角进行了计算,并与台站统计资料进行了对比,结果表明两组数据无论从风向角分布趋势还是从相关性来看,均非常吻合（相关系数为0.97）,从而证明了该方法的正确性及可应用性。     

HYSPLIT模式轨迹计算误差分析

基于NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料GDAS和NCEP2.5°×2.5°再分析资料GBL,利用美国NOAA 空气资源实验室ARL研发的一种用于计算和分析大气污染物输送、扩散轨迹的混合单粒子拉格朗日综合轨迹模式HYSPLIT,对2010年3月12日12时和田站距地100 m高度空气质点的3 d前向轨迹进行了模拟,分析了轨迹计算中的积分误差和分辨率误差.此次轨迹模拟试验中,积分误差对轨迹计算误差的贡献很小.随着积分时间的延长,积分误差略有增大.积分误差并未随着驱动数据分辨率的提高而减小.分辨率误差在积分的各个时刻并不相同,它与地形高度与天气系统有关.在轨迹模式中,轨迹计算基于风速在时间和空间上的线性插值,轨迹模拟的不确定性也与插值有关.使用不同分辨率的驱动数据对轨迹计算结果影响显著,分辨率误差对轨迹计算误差的贡献远大于积分过程中截断近似等带来的积分误差.     

第四讲 三维天气图形制作原理与方法

在第一讲《现代天气图形学概念及技术发展》中,我们强调了三维天气图形学的意义,给出了立体卫星云场的分析例子(见本刊1992年第9期)。本文将给出这类三维图形的制作原理和方法。1 三维坐标变换 制作三维天气图形的第一步,是把原有的二维天气图形坐标(x,y)向三维作概念     

双多普勒天气雷达反演大气三维风场的个例研究

根据笛卡尔坐标系下双多普勒天气雷达反演大气三维风场的理论，以2003年7月5日发生在安徽省的一次强降水过程为例，反演大气三维风场。结果表明：利用双多普勒天气雷达反演大气风场能够更加详细地反映出大气风场的三维结构。     

基于三维GIS的内蒙古人工影响天气电子沙盘系统设计及应用

基于国内自主知识产权的EV-Globe三维GIS平台,结合高分辨率遥感影像和数字高程模型,设计研发了内蒙古人工影响天气电子沙盘系统,实现了内蒙古人影作业装备和观测站的布局展示,卫星云图、雷达回波及降水量等天气监测信息的三维可视化分析展示,实际人影作业过程及作业方案的三维仿真模拟等功能,体现了人影空地立体作业模式,为用户提供形象直观的地理场景、飞机穿云及催化播撒效果,对提升人影指挥决策能力和作业能力起到积极作用。     

空气湿度及其测量方法

空气湿度是表示空气中水汽含量的多少或表示空气干湿度的一种物理量。它对大气的变化有极重要的影响。空气中含有的水汽是形成云、雾、降水的水分来源。大气中水汽的物态变化，如汽态、液态、固态的转换也是能量的重要传递方式，所以，湿度的变化往往是天气变化的前奏。低层大气中的水汽还直接影响工农业生产，因此，湿度被定为气象观测中的基本要素。     

An Ensemble-Based Three-Dimensional Variational Assimilation Method for Land Data Assimilation

Land surface models are often highly nonlinear with model physics that contain parameterized discontinuities. These model attributes severely limit the application of advanced variational data assimilation methods into land data assimilation. The ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） has been widely employed for land data assimilation because of its simple conceptual formulation and relative ease of implementation. An updated ensemble-based three-dimensional variational assimilation （En3-DVar） method is proposed for land data assimilation This new method incorporates Monte Carlo sampling strategies into the 3-D variational data assimilation framework. The proper orthogonal decomposition （POD） technique is used to efficiently approximate a forecast ensemble produced by the Monte Carlo method in a 3-D space that uses a set of base vectors that span the ensemble. The data assimilation process is thus significantly simplified. Our assimilation experiments indicate that this new En3-DVar method considerably outperforms the EnKF method by increasing assimilation precision. Furthermore, computational costs for the new En3-DVar method are much lower than for the EnKF method.     

An Improved Three-Dimensional Simulation of the Diurnally Varying Street-Canyon Flow

The impact of diurnal variations of the heat fluxes from building and ground surfaces on the fluid flow and air temperature distribution in street canyons is numerically investigated using the PArallelized Large-eddy Simulation Model (PALM). Simulations are performed for a 3 by 5 array of buildings with canyon aspect ratio of one for two clear summer days that differ in atmospheric instability. A detailed building energy model with a three-dimensional raster-type geometry—Temperature of Urban Facets Indoor-Outdoor Building Energy Simulator (TUF-IOBES)—provides urban surface heat fluxes as thermal boundary conditions for PALM. In vertical cross-sections at the centre of the spanwise canyon the mechanical forcing and the horizontal streamwise thermal forcing at roof level outweigh the thermal forces from the heated surfaces inside the canyon in defining the general flow pattern throughout the day. This results in a dominant canyon vortex with a persistent speed, centered at a constant height. Compared to neutral simulations, non-uniform heating of the urban canyon surfaces significantly modifies the pressure field and turbulence statistics in street canyons. Strong horizontal pressure gradients were detected in streamwise and spanwise canyons throughout the day, and which motivate larger turbulent velocity fluctuations in the horizontal directions rather than in the vertical direction. Canyon-averaged turbulent kinetic energy in all non-neutral simulations exhibits a diurnal cycle following the insolation on the ground in both spanwise and streamwise canyons, and it is larger when the canopy bottom surface is paved with darker materials and the ground surface temperature is higher as a result. Compared to uniformly distributed thermal forcing on urban surfaces, the present analysis shows that realistic non-uniform thermal forcing can result in complex local airflow patterns, as evident, for example, from the location of the vortices in horizontal planes in the spanwise canyon. This study shows the importance of three-dimensional simulations with detailed thermal boundary conditions to explore the heat and mass transport in an urban area.     

一种基于历史样本投影的三维变分同化方法

对于中尺度数值天气预报来说,初始条件的准确与否已成为影响预报技巧的主要因素之一。现有的大气观测资料在时空分布上的不均匀,以及存在的观测误差,使得我们必须引进资料同化方法,为中尺度数值模式提供最优的初始场。由于传统的三维变分同化(3DVar)方法缺乏模式约束以及背景误差协方差矩阵(B矩阵)不具有流依赖性,因此本文提出一种基于历史样本投影的3DVar(HSP-3DVar)方法,它不仅具有流依赖的B矩阵,而且比传统的3DVar简单易行。为了评价HSP-3DVar的同化性能,我们基于区域暴雨预报模式AREM(Advanced Regional Eta Model)对其进行了观测系统模拟试验(OSSE),结果表明:HSP-3DVar能够有效融合观测信息,模式初值在各层的均方根误差都显著地降低。     

An Investigation of Higher-Order Closure Models for a Forested Canopy

Simultaneous triaxial sonic anemometer velocity measurements vertically arrayed at six levels within and above a uniform pine forest were used to examine two parameterization schemes for the triple-velocity correlation tensor employed in higher-order closure models. These parameterizations are the gradient-diffusion approximation typically used in second-order closure models, and the full budget for the triple-velocity correlation tensor typically employed in third-order closure models. Both second- and third-order closure models failed to reproduce the measured profiles of the triple-velocity correlation within and above the canopy. However, the Reynolds stress tensor profiles (including velocity variances) deviated greatly from the measurements only within the lower levels of the canopy. It is shown that the Reynolds stresses are most sensitive to the parameterization of the triple-velocity correlation in these lower canopy regions where local turbulent production is negligible and turbulence is mainly sustained by the flux transport term. The failure of the third-order closure model to reproduce the measured third moments in the upper layers of the canopy-top contradicts conclusions from a previous study over shorter vegetation but agrees with another study for a deciduous forest. Whether the third-order closure model failure is due to the zero-fourth-cumulant closure approximation is therefore considered. Comparisons between measured and predicted quadruple velocity correlations suggest that the zero-fourth-cumulant approximation is valid close to the canopy-atmosphere in agreement with recent experiments.     

Study of Methods for Three-Dimensional Multiple-Radar Reflectivity Mosaics

This paper investigated several approaches to remapping and combining multiple-radar reflectivity fields onto a unified 3D Cartesian grid with high spatial and temporal resolutions,and analyzed systematic ob servation differences among multiple radars.The remapping approaches were evaluated by inspecting the spatial consistency of the reflectivity fields on vertical and horizontal cross sections on the equidistant line of radars,and the intensity change of 1-h accumulated precipitation before and after interpolation.The com bining approaches were evaluated by continuity examination.The results show that for remapping schemes,the vertical interpolation with nearest neighbor on the range-azimuth plane is the most reasonable scheme that provides consecutive reflectivity fields and retains the high-resolution structure comparable to that of the raw data;for multiple-radar data mosaics,the distance-exponential-weighted mean scheme provides spatially consistent reflectivity mosaics.The mosaics call mitigate various problems caused by the radar beam geometry such as the cone of silence.     

面雨量空间扩展估算法

以温州地区1991～2001年90个观测站的月平均降雨为例,在GIS支持下,对样条函数法、克立格内插法及距离平方反比法这3种插值方法进行了对比研究;并在90个观测站中筛选出最少量的、能达到稳定结果的站点数;还考虑了插值的空间分辨率对结果的影响。对上述3点进行大量的计算、统计分析的结果表明:①在选择距离平方反比法及样条函数法对月平均降雨量插值效果均较好;②利用这两种插值方法对不同站点密度选取不同空间分辨率插值后得出,选取50站误差趋于稳定,利用距离平方反比法插值结果误差较小,而空间分辨率对结果几乎没有影响。利用距离平方反比法,选择50个站得到了温州地区1km×1km面雨量空间扩展结果,为水文预报工作提供一种较精确的面雨量估算和输入方法。     

Study of Methods for Three-Dimensional Multiple-Radar Re ectivity Mosaics

This paper investigated several approaches to remapping and combining multiple-radar reflectivity fields onto a unified 3D Cartesian grid with high spatial and temporal resolutions,and analyzed systematic observation differences among multiple radars. The remapping approaches were evaluated by inspecting the spatial consistency of the reflectivity fields on vertical and horizontal cross sections on the equidistant line of radars, and the intensity change of 1-h accumulated precipitation before and after interpolation. The combining approaches were evaluated by continuity examination. The results show that for remapping schemes,the vertical interpolation with nearest neighbor on the range-azimuth plane is the most reasonable scheme that provides consecutive reflectivity fields and retains the high-resolution structure comparable to that of the raw data; for multiple-radar data mosaics, the distance-exponential-weighted mean scheme provides spatially consistent reflectivity mosaics. The mosaics can mitigate various problems caused by the radar beam geometry such as the cone of silence.     

多普勒雷达数据三维格点化的方法研究

天气雷达数据三维格点化是天气雷达组网拼图的基础,本文研究了几种把球坐标系下的分辨率不均匀的雷达反射率资料（dBZ）插值到统一的分辨率均匀的笛卡尔坐标系下的方法,并采用模拟的天气雷达回波数据对这几种方法进行了比较分析,主要对空间反射率强度值的连续性及是否保留了雷达资料中原始的反射率结构特征进行对比分析。     

利用多模传输理论求解块状云的辐射特征

实际云层在水平与垂直方向都是不均匀的,但为了便于计算,绝大多数关于云辐射的理论模式,都采用平面平行模式.到目前为止,解决三维空间辐射传输问题的方法仍然不多.一般采用统计方法和二流近似法,但这两种方法分别在计算机时和计算精度上受到限制.作者在三维多模传输理论与辐射传输计算程序软件包--DISORT的基础上,发展出计算三维孤立云块多次散射过程的一套程序(MM-DISORT),并由此初步探讨了云块的三维立体结构对云的短波吸收的影响.