Ionospheric measurements during the CRISTA/MAHRSI campaign: their implications and comparison with previous campaigns

The CRISTA/MAHRSI experiment on board a space shuttle was accompanied by a broad campaign of rocket, balloon and ground-based measurements. Supporting lower ionospheric ground-based measurements were run in Europe and Eastern Asia between 1 October–30 November, 1994. Results of comparisons with long ionospheric data series together with short-term comparisons inside the interval October-November, 1994, showed that the upper middle atmosphere (h =80–100 km) at middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in the interval of the CRISTA/MAHRSI experiment (4–12 November, 1994) was very close to its expected climatological state. In other words, the average results of the experiment can be used as climatological data, at least for the given area/altitudes. The role of solar/geomagnetic and “meteorological” control of the lower ionosphere is investigated and compared with the results of MAP/WINE, MAC/SINE and DYANA campaigns. The effects of both solar/geomagnetic and global meteorological factors on the lower ionosphere are found to be weak during autumn 1994 compared to those in MAP/WINE and DYANA winters, and they are even slightly weaker than those in MAP/SINE summer. The comparison of the four campaigns suggests the following overall pattern: in winter the lower ionosphere at northern middle latitudes appears to be fairly well “meteorologically” controlled with a very weak solar influence. In summer, solar influence is somewhat stronger and dominates the weak “meteorological” influence, but the overall solar/meteorological control is weaker than in winter. In autumn we find the weakest overall solar/meteorological control, local effects evidently dominate.     

Evidence of nonlinear site response in HVSR from SMART1 (Taiwan) data

Deamplification of strong motion and the increase of the effective period of soil deposits are typical nonlinear effects; we seek them in SMART1-array data by applying the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) technique. The recordings, from four soil and one rock stations, represent 23 earthquakes (M_L 4.9–7.0); PGA varies between 20–260 cm/s². For each station, mean HVSR curves are calculated for two PGA ranges: <75 cm/s² and >100 cm/s² (weak and strong motion). At the soil stations, the “weak” (linear) and “strong” (nonlinear) responses are significantly different. Below 1–1.8 Hz, the nonlinear response exceeds the linear one. Above 2 Hz, the nonlinear response drops below the linear one and above 4–6 Hz below unity (deamplification). From 10 to 16 Hz, the two responses converge. One soil site shows significant negative correlation between resonance frequency and ground acceleration. Such behaviour agrees with other empirical studies and theoretical predictions. Our results imply that the HVSR technique is sensitive to ground-motion intensity and can be used to detect and study nonlinear site response.     

The Polar Cap (PC) indices: Relations to solar wind parameters and global magnetic activity

The polar geomagnetic activity resulting from solar wind–magnetosphere interactions can be characterized the Polar Cap (PC) indices, PCN and PCS. PC index values are derived from polar magnetic variations calibrated on a statistical basis such that the index approximate values in units of mV/m of the interplanetary “geo-effective” (or “merging”) electric field (E_M) conveyed by the solar wind. The timing and amplitude relations of the PC index to solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters are reported. The solar wind effects are parameterized in terms of the geo-effective electric field (E_M) and the dynamical pressure (P_DYN). The PC index has a delayed and damped response to E_M variations and display saturation-like effects for E_M values exceeding 10 mV/m. Steady or slowly varying levels of solar wind dynamical pressure have little or no impact on the PC index above the effects related to E_M for which the solar wind velocity is also a factor. Sharp increases in the dynamical pressure generate impulsive variations in the PC index comprising a initial negative impulse of 5–10 min duration followed by a positive impulse lasting 10–20 min. Typical amplitudes of both the negative and the positive impulses are 0.2–0.5 units. A sharp decrease in the pressure produces the inverse sequence of pulses in the PC index. Auroral substorm activity represented by the AL index level has a marked influence on the average PC/E_M level at the transition from very quiet (AL0 nT) to disturbed conditions while more or less disturbed conditions (AL<−100 nT) have no systematic effect on the average PC/E_M values. At distinct substorm events the PC/E_M ratio has a minimum (0.8) in the pre-onset phase at around 20 min before substorm onset. The average ratio gradually increases in the expansion phase to reach a maximum value (1.1) at around 40 min after substorm onset (or 20 min after the largest (negative) peak in AL). At substorm recovery during the next 2 h the PC/E_M ratio decreases. Finally, we report on the application of polar magnetic variations to model the disturbance storm time (Dst) index development during magnetic storms by using the PC index as a source function to quantify the energy input to the ring current representing accumulated storm energy and characterized by the Dst index.     

Spatial transport and spectral transfer of solar wind turbulence composed of Alfvén waves and convective structures II: numerical results

This work follows the paper titled “Spatial transport and spectral transfer of solar wind turbulence composed of Alfvén waves and convective structures I: The theoretical model”, and deals with the detailed physics and numerical solution of a two-component solar wind model, consisting of small-scale Alfvén waves and convected structures. In particular, we present numerical results which qualitatively reflect many of the observed features of the radial and spectral evolution of the turbulent energies, the residual energy, the cross-helicity and Alfvén-ratio in high-speed solar wind streams. These features are the following: the formation of a characteristic “inclined eye”, which evolves between the energy spectra displayed over the frequency axis and tends to close in the radial development of the spectra, a steepening of all spectra towards Kolmogorov-like f^-5/3 spectra, the development of the normalized cross-helicity towards a constant not much less than one and the formation of a “trough” form of the Alfvén ratio with a z-shaped left boundary, By weighting special terms in the equations differently, we can also cast light on the physical role of parametric conversion model terms, wave-structure scattering model terms, nonlinear terms, spherical expansion terms and their effects on the radial evolution of turbulent energies in high-speed solar wind streams.     

Global force balance of region 1 current system

At times of strong solar wind forcing such as those that produce major magnetic storms, the region 1 current system dominates over the Chapman–Ferraro current system in mediating the transfer of force between the solar wind and the terrestrial system. The global force balance can be broken into two components, one involving the high-altitude part of the region 1 current system that is in contact with the solar wind (labeled here the HRS) and the other involving the low-altitude part of the region 1 current system that lies in the ionosphere (the LRS). Both communicate their J×B force to the geomagnetic dipole via a gradient in the magnetic field that they generate. In the HRS case the force acts to push the dipole away from the sun. This is the region 1 analog of the Chapman–Ferraro mechanism for transmitting the solar wind's force to the Earth. However, in the LRS case, the force (which is much stronger than in the HRS case) acts to push the dipole toward the sun, seemingly paradoxically. The LRS balances the ‘paradoxical’ sunward force on the dipole with an opposite force on the atmosphere. This paper uses MHD simulations to demonstrate the presence of both the normal force-transmitting gradient generated by the Chapman–Ferraro and the counter-Chapman–Ferraro gradient in the magnetic field generated by the region 1 current system.     

Spectrum of geomagnetic activity in the period range 5–60 days: possible lunar influences

The series of daily Ap-indices has been subdivided into pentades (1932–1936 etc.) and spectra with fine-frequency resolution have been calculated for the indices in each of these intervals. Daily sunspot numbers have been processed in the same way. The average spectrum from all spectra in the pentades, as well as the spectrum from the whole interval have been calculated, and significant peaks have been determined. There is a significant difference between the spectra in the pentades containing the solar activity minimum (1932–1936, 1942–1946 etc.) and those containing the solar activity maximum (1937–1941, 1947–1951 etc.). Most peaks can be interpreted as a response to solar rotation and to the structure of solar wind speed (two high-speed streams per solar rotation), both modulated by the 11-year, annual and semi-annual waves. No significant peak corresponding to the period of the synodic month, or its half has been found. This result suggests that the influence of lunar cycles on some natural phenomena (if any) is not mediated by geomagnetic activity.     

Influence of environmental factors on the phytoplankton spring bloom in Lake Zürich

The development of the phytoplankton spring bloom in Lake Zürich in 1983 was investigated using frequent sampling with short sampling intervals, which allowed the influence of short-term meteorological events on the bloom to be studied. The bloom can be divided into four distinct growth periods (March 1–April 28) and a period of collapse (April 29–May 16). During the four growth periods, growth pulses were found to be associated with high solar radiation, little wind and a shallow mixed layer, whereas stagnation or loss was associated with strong winds and a consequent deepening of the mixed layer, resulting in an unfavourable effective light climate. The population collapse was brought about by zooplankton grazing, possibly coupled with nutrient limitation and other factors.     

On the onset and meridional propagation of the ionospheric F2-region response to geomagnetic storms

The meridional propagation velocities of the ionospheric F2-region response to 268 geomagnetic storms are calculated. Ionospheric vertical sounding data of 1 h time resolution from several stations located in a longitude sector approximately centred along the great circle that contains both the geomagnetic poles and the geographic poles are used.Most meridional propagation velocities from high to low latitudes are less than 600 m/s. The smaller velocities are typical of global neutral meridional wind circulation and the larger are representative of traveling atmospheric disturbances.Simultaneous disturbances at several locations are more frequent during positive phases than during negative phases. Negative phase meridional propagation velocities associated with meridional neutral winds are less frequent in the southern hemisphere when compared with corresponding velocities observed in the northern hemisphere. This may be related to the fact that the distance between the geomagnetic pole and the equator is smaller in the northern hemisphere.Most negative phase onsets are within the 06–10 LT interval. For middle geomagnetic latitudes a “forbidden time interval” between 11 and 14 LT is present. The positive phase onsets show the “dusk effect”.     

The sunspot cycle, the QBO, and the total ozone over Northeastern Europe: a connection through the dynamics of stratospheric circulation

The interaction between the factors of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the 11-year solar cycle is considered as an separate factor influencing the interannual January–March variations of total ozone over Northeastern Europe. Linear correlation analysis and the running correlation method are used to examine possible connections between ozone and solar activity at simultaneous moment the QBO phase. Statistically significant correlations between the variations of total ozone in February and, partially, in March, and the sunspot numbers during the different phases of QBO are found. The running correlation method between the ozone and the equatorial zonal wind demonstrates a clear modulation of 11-y solar signal for February and March. Modulation is clearer if the QBO phases are defined at the level of 50 hPa rather than at 30 hPa. The same statistical analyses are conducted also for possible connections between the index of stratospheric circulation C₁ and sunspot numbers considering the QBO phase. Statistically significant connections are found for February. The running correlations between the index C₁ and the equatorial zonal wind show the clear modulation of 11-y solar signal for February and March. Based on the obtained correlations between the interannual variations of ozone and index C₁, it may be concluded that a connection between solar cycle – QBO – ozone occurs through the dynamics of stratospheric circulation.     

第23太阳活动周期太阳风参数及地磁指数的统计分析

日冕物质抛射(Coronal Mass Ejection,简称CME)和共转相互作用区(Corotating Interaction Region,简称CIR)是造成日地空间行星际扰动和地磁扰动的两个主要原因,提供了地球磁暴的主要驱动力,进而显著影响地球空间环境.为深入研究太阳风活动及受其主导影响的地磁活动的时间分布特征,本文对大量太阳风参数及地磁活动指数的数据进行了详细分析.首先,采用由NASA OMNIWeb提供的太阳风参数及地磁活动指数的公开数据,通过自主编写matlab程序对第23太阳活动周期(1996-01-01—2008-12-31)的数据包括行星际磁场Bz分量、太阳风速度、太阳风质子密度、太阳风动压等重要太阳风参数及Dst指数、AE指数、Kp指数等主要的地磁指数进行统计分析,建立了包括269个CME事件和456个CIR事件列表的数据库.采用事例分析法和时间序列叠加法分别对两类太阳活动的四个重要太阳风参数(IMF Bz、太阳风速度、太阳风质子密度、太阳风动压)和三个主要地磁指数(Dst、AE、Kp)进行统计分析,并研究了其统计特征.其次,根据Dst指数最小值确定了第23太阳活动周期内的355个孤立地磁暴事件,并以Dst指数最小值为标准将这些磁暴进一步分类为145个弱磁暴、123个中等磁暴、70个强磁暴、12个剧烈磁暴和5个巨大磁暴.最后,采用时间序列叠加法对不同强度磁暴的太阳风参数和地磁指数进行统计分析.统计分析表明,对于CME事件,Nsw/Pdyn(Nsw表示太阳风质子密度,Pdyn表示太阳风动压)线性拟合斜率一般为正;对于CIR事件,Nsw/Pdyn线性拟合斜率一般为负,这可作为辨别CME和CIR事件的一种有效方法.从平均意义上讲,相较于CIR事件,CME事件有更大的南向IMF Bz分量、太阳风动压Pdyn、AE指数、Kp指数以及更小的Dstmin.一般情况下,CME事件有更大的可能性驱动极强地磁暴.总体而言,对于不同强度的地磁暴,Dst指数的变化呈现出一定的相似性,但随着地磁暴强度的增强,Dst指数衰减的速度变快.CME和CIR事件以及其各自驱动的地磁暴事件有着很多不同,因此,需要将CME事件驱动的磁暴及CIR事件驱动的磁暴分开研究.建立CME、CIR事件及地磁暴的数据库以及获取的统计分析结果,将为深入研究地球磁层等离子体片、辐射带及环电流对太阳活动的响应特征提供有利的帮助.     

A gigantic Bezymianny-type event at the beginning of modern volcan Popocatepetl

The history of volcan Popocatepetl can be divided into two main periods: the formation of a large primitive volcano — approximatively 30 km wide — on which is superimposed a modern cone (6–8 km in diameter and 1700m high). A major event of Bezymianny type marks the transition between these two dissimilar periods.The activity of the primitive volcano was essentially effusive and lasted several hundred thousands of years. The total volume of products ejected by the volcano is of the order of 500–600 km³. Its last differentiated magmas are dacitic.A gigantic debris flow (D.F.) spread on the southern side is related to the Bezymianny-type event which destroyed the summit area of the ancient edifice. An elliptical caldera ( 6.5 × 11 km wide) was formed by the landslide. Its deposits, with a typical hummocky surface, cover 300 km² for a volume of 28–30 km³. Numerous outcrops belonging to this debris flow show “slabs” of more or less fractured and dislocated rocks that come from the primitive volcano. These deposits are compared to two studied debris flows of similar extent and volume: the Mount Shasta and Colima's D.F.This eruption takes a major place in the volcanologic and magmatic history of Popocatepetl: pyroclastic products of surge-type with “laminites” and crude layers, ashflows, and pumiceous airfall layers are directly related to this event and begin the history of the modern volcano probably less than 50,000 years ago. In addition, a second andesitic and dacitic phase rose both from the central vent — forming the basis of modern Popo — and from lateral vents.The terminal cone is characterized by long periods of construction by lava flows alternating with phases of destruction, the duration of these episodes being 1000 to 2000 years. The cone is composed of two edifices: the first, volcan El Fraile, began with effusive activity and was partly destroyed by three periods of intense explosive activity. The first period occurred prior to 10.000 years B.P., the second from 10.000 to 8000 years B.P. and the third from 5000 to 3800 years B.P. Each period of destruction shows cycles producing collapsing pyroclastic flows or nuées of the St Vincent-type related to the opening of large craters, plinian air-fall deposits and minor lava flows. The second edifice, the summit Popo, produced lava flows until 1200 years B.P. and since that time, entered into an explosive period. Two cataclysmic episodes, each including major pyroclastic eruptions, occurred 1200 and 900–1000 years ago. During the Pre-Hispanic and historic times effusive activity was restricted entirely to the summit area alternating with plinian eruptions. Nevertheless, despite the quiet appearance of the volcano, the last period of pyroclastic activity which started 1200 years ago may not have ended and can be very dangerous for the nearby populations.     

Statistics of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle (1844–1993)

A previous application of extreme-value statistics to the first, second and third largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle for nine solar cycles is extended to fourteen solar cycles (1844–1993). The intensity of a geomagnetic storm is measured by the magnitude of the daily aa index, rather than the half-daily aa index used previously. Values of the conventional aa index (1868– 1993), supplemented by the Helsinki Ak index (1844–1880), provide an almost continuous, and largely homogeneous, daily measure of geomagnetic activity over an interval of 150 years. As in the earlier investigation, analytic expressions giving the probabilities of the three greatest storms (extreme values) per solar cycle, as continuous functions of storm magnitude (ad), are obtained by least-squares fitting of the observations to the appropriate theoretical extreme-value probability functions. These expressions are used to obtain the statistical characteristics of the extreme values; namely, the mode, median, mean, standard deviation and relative dispersion. Since the Ak index may not provide an entirely homogeneous extension of the aa index, the statistical analysis is performed separately for twelve solar cycles (1868–1993), as well as nine solar cycles (1868–1967). The results are utilized to determine the expected ranges of the extreme values as a function of the number of solar cycles. For fourteen solar cycles, the expected ranges of the daily aa index for the first, second and third largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle decrease monotonically in magnitude, contrary to the situation for the half-daily aa index over nine solar cycles. The observed range of the first extreme daily aa index for fourteen solar cycles is 159–352 nT and for twelve solar cycles is 215–352 nT. In a group of 100 solar cycles the expected ranges are expanded to 137–539 and 177–511 nT, which represent increases of 108% and 144% in the respective ranges. Thus there is at least a 99% probability that the daily aa index willAlso Visiting Reader in Physics, University of Sussex, Palmer, Brighton, BN1 9QH, UK     

Statistical analysis of seismic data from north-western and western Argentina

Due to the process of subduction of the Nazca Plate, high seismic activity is observed near the Argentine Andean range between 21°S and 36°S. The new version of the Argentine Seismic Catalogue, which includes well-defined events during the period 1964–1989, allows us to perform an analysis of seismic risk.Earthquakes with epicenters in the provinces included in the north-western and western regions were studied using Gumbel III extreme value distribution. Modal extreme magnitudes and return periods were calculated for both regions and the results were compard with the ones obtained through the entire process techniques (both analytical and graphical).As a first study, we analyzed each province separately, after which mean values for each region were obtained. Modal values around 5–5.5 have been found and times of recurrence for events withm _b >6 of approximately 25 years were obtained.Also at CONICET (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Técnicas).     

Heliospheric current sheet inclinations at Venus and Earth

We investigate the inclinations of heliospheric current sheet at two sites in interplanetary space, which are generated from the same solar source. From the data of solar wind magnetic fields observed at Venus (0.72 AU) and Earth (1 AU) during December 1978–May 1982 including the solar maximum of 1981, 54 pairs of candidate sector boundary crossings are picked out, of which 16 pairs are identified as sector boundaries. Of the remainder, 12 pairs are transient structures both at Venus and Earth, and 14 pairs are sector boundaries at one site and have transient structures at the other site. It implies that transient structures were often ejected from the coronal streamer belt around the solar maximum. For the 16 pairs of selected sector boundaries, we determine their normals by using minimum variance analysis. It is found that most of the normal azimuthal angles are distributed between the radial direction and the direction perpendicular to the spiral direction both at Venus and Earth. The normal elevations tend to be smaller than ≈45° with respect to the solar equatorial plane, indicating high inclinations of the heliospheric current sheet, in particular at Earth. The larger scatter in the azimuth and elevation of normals at Venus than at Earth suggests stronger effects of the small-scale structures on the current sheet at 0.72 AU than at 1 AU. When the longitude difference between Venus and Earth is small (<40° longitudinally), similar or the same inclinations are generally observed, especially for the sector boundaries without small-scale structures. This implies that the heliospheric current sheet inclination tends to be maintained during propagation of the solar wind from 0.72 AU to 1 AU. Detailed case studies reveal that the dynamic nature of helmet streamers causes variations of the sector boundary structure.     

EISCAT measurements of the solar wind

EISCAT observations of interplanetary scintillation have been used to measure the velocity of the solar wind at distances between 15 and 130R (solar radii) from the Sun. The results show that the solar wind consists of two distinct components, a fast stream with a velocity of 800 km s^–1 and a slow stream at 400 kms^–1. The fast stream appears to reach its final velocity much closer to the Sun than expected. The results presented here suggest that this is also true for the slow solar wind. Away from interaction regions the flow vector of the solar wind is purely radial to the Sun. Observations have been made of fast wind/slow wind interactions which show enhanced levels of scintillation in compression regions.     

The convection electrojet and the substorm electrojet

Enhancements in the auroral electrojets associated with magnetospheric substorms result from those in either the electric field or the ionospheric conductivities, or both. Their relative importance varies significantly, even during a single substorm, depending on the location as well as on the substorm phases. It is predicted that different parts of the electrojets tend to respond in different ways to substorm activity. The unprecedented, unique opportunity for CLUSTER spacecraft observations of electric/magnetic fields and precipitating particles, combined with radar measurements of ionospheric quantities and with ground magnetometers, will provide us with crucial information regarding the physical nature of the separation between the “electric field-dominant” and “conductivity-dominant” auroral electrojets. This study also discusses the implications of these two auroral-electrojet components in terms of solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere interactions.     

Spatial and temporal variability of Canadian seasonal precipitation (1900–2000)

Wavelet and cross-wavelet analysis are used to identify and describe spatial and temporal variability in Canadian seasonal precipitation, and to gain further insights into the dynamical relationship between the seasonal precipitation and the dominant modes of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Results from applying continuous wavelet transform to seasonal precipitation series from 201 stations selected from Environment Canada Meteorological Network reveal striking climate-related features before and after the 1940s. The span of available observations, 1900–2000, allows for depicting variance and covariance for periods up to 12 years. Scale-averaged wavelet power spectra are used to simultaneously assess the temporal and spatial variability in each set of 201 seasonal precipitation time series. The most striking feature, in the 2–3-year period and in the 3–6-year period—the 6–12-year period is dominated by white noise and is not considered further—is a net distinction between the timing and intensity of the temporal variability in autumn, winter and spring–summer precipitation. It is found that the autumn season exhibits the most intense activity (or variance) in both the 2–3 year and the 3–6 year periods. The winter season corresponds to the least intense activity for the 2–3 year period, but it exhibits more activity than the spring–summer for the 3–6 year period.Cross-wavelet analysis is provided between the seasonal precipitation and four selected climatic indices: the Pacific North America (PNA), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM) originally called the Arctic Oscillation, and the sea surface temperature series over the Niño-3 region (ENSO). The wavelet cross-spectra revealed coherent space–time variability of the climate–precipitation relationship throughout Canada. It is shown that strong climate/precipitation activity (or covariance) in the 2–6 year period starts after 1940 whatever the climatic index and the season. Prior to year 1940, only local and weaker 2–6 year activity is revealed in western Canada essentially in winter and autumn, but overall a non-significant precipitation/climate relationship is observed prior to 1940. Correlation analysis in the 2–6 year band between the seasonal precipitation and the selected climatic indices revealed strong positive correlations with the ENSO, the NAO, and the NAM in eastern and western Canada for the post-1940 period. For the period prior to 1940, the correlation tend be negative for all the indices whatever the region. A particular feature in the correlation analysis results is the consistently stronger and positive NAM–precipitation correlations in all the regions since 1940. The cross-wavelet spectra and the correlation analysis in the 2–6 year band suggest the presence of a change point around 1940 in Canadian seasonal precipitation—that is found to be more likely related to NAM dynamics.     

Cluster Observes the High-Altitude CUSP Region

This paper gives an overview of Cluster observations in the high-altitude cusp region of the magnetosphere. The low and mid-altitude cusps have been extensively studied previously with a number of low-altitude satellites, but only little is known about the distant part of the magnetospheric cusps. During the spring-time, the trajectory of the Cluster fleet is well placed for dayside, high-altitude magnetosphere investigations due to its highly eccentric polar orbit. Wide coverage of the region has resulted and, depending on the magnetic dipole tilt and the solar wind conditions, the spacecraft are susceptible to encounter: the plasma mantle, the high-altitude cusp, the dayside magnetosphere (i.e. dayside plasma sheet) and the distant exterior cusp diamagnetic cavity. The spacecraft either exit into the magnetosheath through the dayside magnetopause or through the exterior cusp–magnetosheath interface. This paper is based on Cluster observations made during three high-altitude passes. These were chosen because they occurred during different solar wind conditions and different inter-spacecraft separations. In addition, the dynamic nature of the cusp allowed all the aforementioned regions to be sampled with different order, duration and characteristics. The analysis deals with observations of: (1) both spatial and temporal structures at high-altitudes in the cusp and plasma mantle, (2) signatures of possible steady reconnection, flux transfer events (FTE) and plasma transfer events (PTE), (3) intermittent cold (<100 eV) plasma acceleration associated with both plasma penetration and boundary motions, (4) energetic ions (5–40 keV) in the exterior cusp diamagnetic cavity and (5) the global structure of the exterior cusp and its direct interface with the magnetosheath. The analysis is primarily focused on ion and magnetic field measurements. By use of these recent multi-spacecraft Cluster observations we illustrate the current topics under debate pertaining to the solar wind–magnetosphere interaction, for which this region is known to be of major importance.     

PAI-OFF: A new proposal for online flood forecasting in flash flood prone catchments

The Process Modelling and Artificial Intelligence for Online Flood Forecasting (PAI-OFF) methodology combines the reliability of physically based, hydrologic/hydraulic modelling with the operational advantages of artificial intelligence. These operational advantages are extremely low computation times and straightforward operation. The basic principle of the methodology is to portray process models by means of ANN. We propose to train ANN flood forecasting models with synthetic data that reflects the possible range of storm events. To this end, establishing PAI-OFF requires first setting up a physically based hydrologic model of the considered catchment and – optionally, if backwater effects have a significant impact on the flow regime – a hydrodynamic flood routing model of the river reach in question. Both models are subsequently used for simulating all meaningful and flood relevant storm scenarios which are obtained from a catchment specific meteorological data analysis. This provides a database of corresponding input/output vectors which is then completed by generally available hydrological and meteorological data for characterizing the catchment state prior to each storm event. This database subsequently serves for training both a polynomial neural network (PoNN) – portraying the rainfall–runoff process – and a multilayer neural network (MLFN), which mirrors the hydrodynamic flood wave propagation in the river. These two ANN models replace the hydrological and hydrodynamic model in the operational mode. After presenting the theory, we apply PAI-OFF – essentially consisting of the coupled “hydrologic” PoNN and “hydrodynamic” MLFN – to the Freiberger Mulde catchment in the Erzgebirge (Ore-mountains) in East Germany (3000 km²). Both the demonstrated computational efficiency and the prediction reliability underline the potential of the new PAI-OFF methodology for online flood forecasting.     

A note on the statistics of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle

This note points out a problem with the way in which extreme value distributions have been fit to the intensities of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle. An alternative method is described. This method is applied to observations of the three largest geomagnetic storms in solar cycles 11–22.