阿拉善左旗5.8级地震前地脉动信号特征分析

本文针对2015年4月15日发生在南北地震带北端的阿拉善左旗5.8级地震,利用乌海台、东升庙台、石嘴山台的连续数字地震波形资料,采用快速傅里叶变换对三个台站的2015年4月1日00时—4月15日23时波形数据进行分析,并持续跟踪0~0.25 Hz包络幅值极大值的变化形态。结果显示:(1)在5.8级地震前,震中附近的乌海地震台、东升庙地震台、石嘴山地震台记录的地震波形均出现频谱向低频偏移的现象;(2)三个台站出现低频异常的包络幅值极大值跟踪形态不一致,其中只有乌海台在震前出现明显的持续不稳定异常,异常持续时间约120h;(3)三个台站距离震中由近及远包络幅值极大值的跟踪形态差异明显。     

A Study on the Seismic Velocity Changes before and after the 2016 MS6.4 Menyuan Earthquake Using the Active Source Data in the Qilian Mountain

The Qilian Mountain active source network data was processed using the methods of stacking, cross-correlation and interpolation, and the airgun travel time variation characteristics of P and S waves around the January 21, 2016 M_S6.4 Menyua, Qinghai earthquake. The results show that about 6 months before the earthquake, the relative travel time of three stations near the epicenter showed a declined change (travel time decrease), and such a change of low value anomaly was recovered about 3 months before the earthquake. The travel time decrease then appeared again, and the earthquake occurred during the recovery process. The maximum decrease of the S-wave travel time was 18ms, and the change in travel time returned to normal after the earthquake. The variation trend of the 3 stations is consistent, including the S-wave travel time change of station ZDY38, which is nearest to the epicenter and changed obviously, and the variation range of the travel time is smaller at the stations afar. This variation pattern is related to the position of the seismic source. The shorter travel time means the velocity increase, which may be related to the regional stress accumulation.     

2012年金塔5.4级地震前兆异常时空演化特征研究

利用甘肃前兆台网观测资料进行时空扫描,发现地下流体参量、地倾斜等在甘肃酒泉金塔5.4级地震前10天内出现了一系列异常变化,鼎新—德令哈基线在两年半的时间内缩短5 mm;短临异常主要出现在距震中200km范围的台站,时间是3月中旬和4月下旬;临震异常集中出现的时间是4月28日至5月1日。距离震中较近的高台倾斜完整记录下酒泉金塔MS5.4地震发生过程中岩土石受力变化的全部过程,提供了地震孕育和发生的完整演化资料,对完善地震理论模型和地震预测有积极的研究价值。     

河北应变固体潮汐参数及震例研究

选取河北省5个形变台站的观测资料,利用Venedikov调和分析法计算河北省境内M_S4.0以上的潮汐因子、相位等参数,发现应变潮汐因子对地震都有多则半年,少则几周的异常期。宽城台对河北省境内发生M_S4.0以上的地震中,震中距较其他台站最近(震中距最远为350km、最近为100km),资料较好,故在综合分析河北应变台站的基础上,重点选取宽城台的应变潮汐因子对河北2005—2015年地震案例进行简要分析,发现该台对地震的对应率达到60%,虚报率40%,漏报率极低只有14%,前兆异常可信度较高,可作为前兆异常的参考。     

Model calculations of the total electron content for the system of GPS satellites

The numerical global self-consistent model of the Earth’s thermosphere, ionosphere and protonosphere (GSM TIP), which makes it possible to calculate all the main parameters of the near-Earth plasma, is used to calculate the total electron content (TEC). Calculations have been performed along the radiosignal propagation trajectory between a surface receiving point and a GPS satellite. The TEC value calculated from the satellite data have been compared with such a “true model” TEC value for magnetically quiet conditions of the spring equinox and moderate solar activity. The relative errors in determining the satellite data-based TEC for two European (Troms have been calculated. It has been indicated that an increase in the number of satellites not always results in an increase in accuracy of the TEC value measured on satellites.     

玛多7.4级地震前临震微波动现象研究

强震临震微波动是强震临震阶段优势频率集中在11～16 Hz、频谱形态较为整齐的临震异常脉动记录。利用"兰州临震微波动实时监控与跟踪系统"的数据资料,对2021年5月22日玛多7.4级地震震中200 km半径的范围内台站的临震微波动事件进行分析。认为震前距离震中67 km的巴颜喀拉台EW通道存在显著异常,达到杨立明提出的异常跟踪指标;10个测震台站中的8个在本次地震前记录到了临震微波动事件,震中南侧台站记录到的事件多于北侧。     

Response of the ionosphere to the Baltic Sea earthquake of 21 September 2004

GPS observations of the European permanent network were used to identify seismo-ionospheric precursors of Baltic Sea earthquake of 21 September 2004. It is a very rare event for this region of Europe (magnitude of about 5.0). This value is the threshold for the occurrence of seismic effects in the ionosphere. In total electron content (TEC) data over the region of the earthquake, a specific ionospheric anomaly appeared one day before the earthquake was detected. The ionospheric variability had a positive sign with an enhancement of about 4–5 TECU (1 TECU = 10¹⁶ electrons/m²) relative to the non-disturbed state of the ionosphere. The anomaly had a duration of 4–5 hours in the day time. The special size of this anomaly was about 1000 km. The characteristic parameters of the anomaly show that it can be associated with ionospheric precursors of an earthquake.     

九寨沟MS7.0地震前地磁异常

分析距离九寨沟M_S7.0地震震中分别为65 km、254 km和238 km的松潘地磁台、成都地磁台和天水地磁台2017年连续观测结果,发现九寨沟地震前,松潘地磁台出现异常变化,主要表现为2017年5月开始,松潘地磁台长时间垂直分量累积变化量达40 nT。短时间内也存在地磁场突变,最高可达10 nT,而成都地磁台和天水地磁台地磁场无明显异常。通过对观测数据的详细检查发现松潘地磁台很多观测日的最后一个观测值与后一观测日的第一个观测值相差超过1 nT,因此认为九寨沟地震前观测数据的异常是由观测系统异常导致。对三个台站地磁场垂直分量日变化的统计分析发现垂直分量在不同时段相关性保持一致,说明地震前短时间内不存在地磁垂直分量的明显异常变化,三个台站地磁场日变化的差异是由地下介质性质不同导致。岩石圈磁场在震中西侧区域出现正负异常交替现象,这可能与九寨沟地震的孕育有关。     

2020年7月12日唐山MS5.1地震预警处理能力分析

2020年7月12日,河北唐山发生M_S5.1地震,河北省地震预警系统成功地处理并产出了这次地震预警各种结果数据,本文借助此次地震对河北地震预警网内震中距200km范围内台站产出质量以及地震预警前5次处理结果进行详细分析。此次地震发生在河北地震预警网内,平均台间距为10km,首台触发后3s、震后6s发布首次处理结果,与编目结果相比,震级偏差为-1.3,震中位置偏差为2.6km,盲区半径为18km。随着参与定位台站数量增多,震级与位置偏差越来越小,但震级仍整体偏小。河北地震预警网台站产出质量整体较高,其中烈度台作为地震预警最重要的组成部分,是决定预警效果的关键因素。本次地震震中距200km范围内,烈度台平均信噪比为48,震中距50km范围内平均信噪比为112,符合预警系统对信噪比的要求。本次地震预警结果表明,河北地震预警网内台站布局基本合理,波形质量较高,地震预警系统处理软件在本次地震中预警产出效果较好,已经具备了一定的地震预警能力。     

2017年九寨沟7级地震前电磁扰动异常分析

地震前的电磁扰动现象曾被多次观测到, 但需进一步研究。 在中国地震局的支持下, 可以监测电磁扰动数据的多分量地震监测系统AETA在中国境内已经布设了200余套。 2017年8月8日, 四川省九寨沟县发生7级地震。 震中周边500 km范围内当时已经布设22套AETA设备。 基于滑动四分位距法(时间窗为27 d)分析了这些台站震前30 d的数据。 11个台站出现了异常, 其中震中周边200 km内的6个台站有4个发生异常。 同时, 正异常明显多于负异常。 另外, 大部分异常发生在夜间(20时~6时)。     

2017年11月23日重庆武隆5.0级地震前地磁谐波振幅比异常研究

近年来,地磁谐波振幅比方法在国内得到较广泛的应用,并成为一种较为有效的地震预测方法。本文利用谐波振幅比方法,对2017年11月23日重庆武隆5.0级地震震中附近台站的地磁三分量数据进行计算,并分析了各台站10~60min周期谐波振幅比值异常特征。研究发现,异常台站几乎均位于震源机制解的拉张区(P波向下的区域),具有象限分布特征;异常台站NS向谐波振幅比值变化存在分层现象,短周期(浅部)的变化与长周期(深部)变化成相反相位,从电磁学机理看,浅部与深部之间存在EW向的面电流;近震中台站的异常低点时间存在由长周期(深部)向短周期(浅部)迁移的现象。     

九寨沟M_s7.0地震前地应变LURR异常演化特征

从岩石应力-应变的本构关系出发,以能够反映岩石应变变化的地应变观测数据作为"响应量",通过库伦应力触发模型的加卸载响应比计算方法,计算2017年8月8日九寨沟M_S7.0地震前震中及周边500km范围内应变观测的加卸载响应比结果。结果显示,基于应变观测的加卸载响应比方法能够较好地从潮汐频段提取地震前LURR异常,九寨沟地震前,300km范围内的多个应变观测台站出现LURR异常,其中相距96km的两水台EW分量Y值最大达到3.27;LURR空间演化特征显示,在震前约9个月内震中及周边地区陆续出现异常"集中—增强—减弱"过程,证明该地区在长期应力累积的背景下,应力的不断累积增强导致震中及附近区域的岩石出现不断损伤或弱化,最终位于树正断裂上的应变能积累超过了介质强度而引发了此次地震。     

Analysis of observations backing up the existence of VLF and ionospheric TEC anomalies before the Mw6.1 earthquake in Greece,January 26, 2014

The present work integrates ground-based ionosphere measurements using very-low-frequency radio transmissions with satellite measurements of the total electron content to draw common conclusions about the possible impact that the Mw6.1 earthquake that took place in Greece on January 26, 2014, had on the ionosphere.Very-low-frequency radio signals reveal the existence of an ∼4-day anomaly in the wavelet spectra of the signals received inside the earthquake preparation zone and a significant increase in the normalized variance of the signals prior to the earthquake (approximately 1 day before).Through total electron content analysis, it was possible to identify a clear anomaly from 15:00 until 20:00 UT on the day before the earthquake that appears again on the day of the earthquake between 07:00 UT and 08:00 UT. The anomalous values reach TEC1Sigma ∼4.36 and 3.11, respectively. Their spatial and temporal distributions give grounds to assume a possible link with the earthquake preparation. The geomagnetic, solar and weather conditions during the considered period are presented and taken into account.This work is an initial and original step towards a multi-parameter approach to the problem of the possible earthquake-related effects on the ionosphere joining observations made from both ground stations and satellites. A well-founded knowledge of these phenomena is clearly necessary before dealing with their application to earthquake prediction purposes.     

Time variations in teleseismic reisduals prior to the magnitude 5.1 Bear Valley earthquake of February 24, 1972

Summary Teleseismic arrivals for large earthquakes occurring in the Circum-Pacific seismic source regions have been analysed forP-velocity variations prior to the February 24, 1972, Bear Valley earthquake at several stations in the vicinity of Bear Valley, California. The teleseismic arrivals have been analysed by the method of two-station residuals and corrected for observed azimuthal variations. The data covers the time period of July, 1971, through April, 1972, and suggests that during part of January, 1972, aP-velocity anomaly occurred beneath station BVL 2 km from the epicenter of the magnitude 5.1 Bear Valley event. A maximum vertical travel time delay of 0.15 seconds is observed. No other anomalous behavior associated with this event is suggested by the data for the other stations ranging from 7 to 19 km from the event's epicenter. These results support an anomalous zone of limited size with a maximum horizontal extent of less than 5 km perpendicular and about 10 km parallel to the San Andreas fault relative to the epicenter and confined within a 5 to 10 km portion of the uppermost crust. Also aP-velocity delay for waves travelling essentially along the intermediate stress axis would imply in this case that theP-velocity anomaly is caused by a bulk modulus mechanism such as that proposed by the dilatancy-fluid flow theory.     

地电场日变幅各向异性度异常提取方法初步研究

首先建立地电场日变幅各向异性度(S值)方法:对不同测向的地电场日变幅换算成各向异性系数,进而提取异常信号的方法。通过对不同台站的映震结果的对比分析表明:(1)该方法能够较好地识别地震前兆信息异常,对于5级左右地震,在震前4个月之内,震中距200 km范围内各台能够记录到地震的短期异常,异常出现的早晚与各台震中距的远近有关;对于4级地震,震中距越近异常越明显;(2)在正常情况下,S值曲线一般在均值的2倍均方差以内波动;当出现异常时,异常判据为S值2日以上超过各台均值的2倍均方差、曲线形态发生畸变;(3)各台映震结果存在较大的差异性,这可能与地下介质电性结构、发震构造与各台构造关联性存在一定关系。     

漾濞县MS6.4、玛多县MS7.4地震前地电场变化分析

2021年5月21日云南漾濞县发生M_S6.4地震、5月22日青海玛多县发生M_S7.4地震,分别分析漾濞震中500 km内12个地电场台数据、玛多震中500 km内8个地电场台数据,获知:(1)漾濞地震周围罗茨等8台优势方位角在震前出现了异常变化,弥渡等4台看不出明显异常变化;盐源等7台相关系数在震前2～6个月出现了大幅度下降,元谋、苴林等5台相关系数看不出明显异常变化。(2)玛多地震周围门源等4台方位角在震前出现了异常变化,都兰等4台方位角看不出明显异常变化;门源等5台在玛多地震前2～6个月相关系数出现了大幅下降、变化范围明显变窄等现象,都兰、白水河、金银滩等3台优势方位角和相关系数都看不出明显异常变化。(3)两次地震分析中地电场优势方位角和相关系数异常变化在时间上皆具有同步或准同步性。     

利用地基GPS观测数据研究与地震有关的电离层异常

利用中国大陆GPS连续站观测数据, 根据电离层单层模型, 计算得到中国大陆上空电离层电子总含量TEC(Total Electron Content)值的时间序列。 选取2001—2008年发生在中国大陆地区的11个M_S≥6.0地震, 分析了这11个地震前后TEC值时间序列的变化特征。 分析结果显示, 地震活动期间距离震中700 km以外的GPS连续观测站上空TEC值的异常现象不明显, TEC值变化基本在0.5 TECU之内。 11个震例中有6个震例TEC值出现了负异常现象, 主要表现在震前1～5 d, 并且观测站距离震中越近, TEC值变化越明显, 少数震例在地震发生期间TEC值明显增加。 研究认为, 利用GPS连续观测数据研究与地震有关的电离层前兆是可能的。     

利用祁连山主动源资料研究2016年门源6.4级地震前后波速变化

采用叠加、互相关、插值拟合等方法对祁连山气枪主动源台网数据进行处理,针对2016年1月21日青海门源6.4级地震前后气枪激发地震P波、S波震相的走时变化特征进行了分析,结果表明,地震前约6个月时,震中附近3个台站的相对走时出现下降变化（走时减少）,至震前约3个月时低值异常恢复正常,之后再次出现走时下降变化,地震即发生于走时变化恢复过程中。S波走时变化最大下降幅度达18ms,震后走时变化逐渐恢复正常,且3个台站变化趋势较为一致,其中,距震中最近的台站的S波走时变化最明显（ZDY38台）,较远台站的走时变化幅度较小,其变化特征与震源区位置有关。走时缩短意味着速度增加,可能与区域应力积累间存在一定的关系。     

Ionospheric precursor of a destructive earthquake that occurred on April 6, 2009 at L’Aquila (Italy)

On the basis of the 15-min data from a series of ground-based vertical ionospheric sounding stations, a study of variations of the foF2 critical frequency before the strong earthquake (M = 6.3) that occurred on April 6, 2009 at L’Aquila (Italy) was carried out. The earthquake epicenter was located 85 km north-eastward from Rome. Approximately 20 h prior to the earthquake, a well-pronounced statistically significant effect of foF2 increase relative to the average background for magnetically quiet days was observed for almost 1.5 h at the Rome ionospheric station. In this case, at control stations distanced from the earthquake epicenter, no statistically significant deviations of foF2 from the background values were detected during the same observations period. This fact provides grounds for consideration of the foF2 increase observed at Rome station as a possible ionospheric precursor of this earthquake.     

Precursory phenomena observed in the total electron content measurements before great Hokkaido earthquake of September 25, 2003 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> = 8.3)

In this paper the analysis of the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) variations obtained with using GPS measurements before the Hokkaido earthquake (M = 8.3) is presented. Anomalous behavior of TEC was detected within several days before the main event. Anomaly appeared as the local TEC enhancement situated in the vicinity of the forthcoming earthquake epicenter. These structures occurred during 5 days prior to the shock at the same interval of local time. At the process of the earthquake approach the amplitude of modification was increased, and it has reached the 85–90% level relative to the non-disturbed conditions 18 hours before the earthquake. The area of strong positive disturbance has extended over 1500 km in latitudes and 4000 km in longitudes. The analysis have shown that according to the series of characteristics (its locality, affinity with the epicenter, dome-shaped zone of manifestation, characteristic time of existence) the detected ionospheric anomaly may be associated to the precursors of seismic activity.