Water discharge variability of Changjiang （Yangtze） and Huanghe （Yellow） Rivers and its response to climatic changes

Influences of large-scale climatic phenomena, such as the E1Nifio/La Nifia-Southem Oscillation （ENSO） and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）, on the temporal variations of the annual water discharge at the Lijin station in the Huanghe （Yellow） River and at the Datong station in the Changjiang （Yangtze） River were examined. Using the empirical mode decomposition-maximum entropy spectral analysis （EMD- MESA） method, the 2- to 3-year, 8- to 14-year, and 23-year cyclical variations of the annual water discharge at the two stations were discovered. Based on the analysis results, the hydrological time series on the inter- annual to interdecadal scales were constructed. The results indicate that from 1950 to 2011, a significant downward trend occurred in the natural annual water discharge in Huanghe River. However, the changes in water discharge in Changjiang River basin exhibited a slightly upward trend. It indicated that the changes in the river discharge in the Huanghe basin were driven primarily by precipitation. Other factors, such as the precipitation over the Changjiang River tributaries, ice melt and evaporation contributed much more to the increase in the Changjiang River basin. Especially, the impacts of the inter-annual and inter-decadal climate oscillations such as ENSO and PDO could change the long-term patterns of precipitation over the basins of the two major rivers. Generally, low amounts of basin-wide precipitation on interannual to interdecadal scales over the two rivers corresponded to most of the warm ENSO events and the warm phases of the PDO, and vice versa. The positive phases of the PDO and ENSO could lead to reduced precipitation and consequently affect the long-term scale water discharges at the two rivers.     

Change of annual extreme water levels and correlation with river discharges in the middle-lower Yangtze River: Characteristics and possible affecting factors

As one of the fastest developing regions in China, the middle-lower Yangtze River(MLYR) is vulnerable to floods and droughts. With obtained time series of annual highest water level(HWL), annual lowest water level(LWL) and the corresponding river discharges from three gauging stations in MLYR that covering the period 1987–2011, the current study evaluated the change characteristics of annual extreme water levels and the correlation with river discharges by using the methods of trend test, Mann-Whitney-Pettitt(MWP) test and double mass analysis. Major result indicated a decreasing/increasing trend for annual HWL/LWL of all stations in MLYR during the study period. A change point in 1999 was identified for annual HWL at the Hankou and Datong stations. The year 2006 was found to be the critical year that the relationship between annual extreme water levels and river discharges changed in the MLYR. With contrast to annual LWL in MLYR, further investigation revealed that the change characteristics of annual HWL were highly consistent with regional precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin, while the linkage with Three Gorges Dam(TGD) operation is not strong. Our observation also pointed out that the effect of serious down cutting of the riverbed and the enlargement of the cross-section area during the initial period of TGD operation caused the downward trend of the relationship between annual LWL and river discharge. Whereas, the relatively raised river water level before the flood season due to TGD regulation since 2006 explained for the changing upward trend of the relationship between annual HWL and river discharge.     

Wavelet analysis and nonparametric test for climate change in Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang during 1959–2006

Using wavelet analysis, regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test, this paper analyzed time-series (1959–2006) weather data from 23 meteorological stations in an attempt to characterize the climate change in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China. Major findings are as follows: 1) In the 48-year study period, average annual temperature, annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity all presented nonlinear trends. 2) At the 16-year time scale, all three climate indices unanimously showed a rather flat before 1964 and a detectable pickup thereafter. At the 8-year time scale, an S-shaped nonlinear and uprising trend was revealed with slight fluctuations in the entire process for all three indices. Incidentally, they all showed similar pattern of a slight increase before 1980 and a noticeable up-swing afterwards. The 4-year time scale provided a highly fluctuating pattern of periodical oscillations and spiral increases. 3) Average annual relative humidity presented a negative correlation with average annual temperature and a positive correlation with annual precipitation at each time scale, which revealed a close dynamic relationship among them at the confidence level of 0.001. 4) The Mann-Kendall test at the 0.05 confidence level demonstrated that the climate warming trend, as represented by the rising average annual temperature, was remarkable, but the climate wetting trend, as indicated by the rising annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity, was not obvious.     

近55年来澜沧江流域降水时空变化特征分析

本文利用澜沧江流域及周边共30个气象站点1960-2014年的逐月降水数据,采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Morlet小波分析、Co-Kriging插值以及重心模型等方法,分析了澜沧江流域降水的时空变化特征。结果表明：① 分析时段内全区、北部和中部年降水量呈现增加趋势,南部年降水量出现减少趋势。春季全区、北部、中部和南部降水均呈增加趋势;夏季均呈减少趋势;秋季全区和南部降水呈现减少趋势,北部和中部呈增加趋势;冬季全区、中部和南部呈下降趋势,只有北部呈增加趋势。② 近55年来,全区包括北部、中部和南部年降水都存在近29年、近22年和5-10年左右的周期,这3个周期在分析时段内表现很稳定,具有全域性。全区、北部和南部还存在明显的13年左右的周期,中部1975年前和1995年后也存在13年左右的周期,北部1975年前存在明显的7-10年的周期,1995年后,7-10年的周期表现也比较稳定。降水量变化的第一主周期是近29年,第二主周期是近22年。③ 澜沧江流域多年平均降水量由南部向北部减少,流域南部降水最多,多年平均降水量在1200 mm以上,中部多年平均降水量处于800~1100 mm,北部多年平均降水量多小于800 mm,大部分在400~800 mm;澜沧江流域年降水重心和月降水重心都集中在中部,其中11月的降水重心迁移距离最大,向东南方向迁移了131.82 km。从季节来看,春季、夏季和秋季降水重心向东南迁移,冬季的向西北方向迁移,雨季降水重心相对比较集中,旱季降水重心相对 比较分散。     

Runoff characteristics of the Nen River Basin and its cause

Based on annual runoff data collected from several hydrological stations in the Nen River Basin from 1956 to 2004,the cumulative filter method,Mann-Kendall method and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze variations in the characteristics and factors influencing runoff.Specifically,the general characteristics list as：The distribution of runoff was found to be uneven within a year,and the annual variation showed an overall decreasing trend.The abrupt change points of runoff were found to be in the early 1960s,middle 1980s and late 1990s.Multiple time scales analysis revealed three time-scale cycles,a long-term cycle of about 20-35 years with a scale center of 25 years,another cycle of about 8-15 years with a scale center of 11 years and a short-term cycle of about 5 years.Based on the Morlet wavelet transform coefficients figure of the 25-year time scale,it is preliminarily estimated that the Nen River Basin will enter a high flow period in 2013.The results obtained using various methods were consistent with each other.The physical causes of the results were also analyzed to confirm their accuracy.     

Runoff change of Naoli River in Northeast China in 1955–2009 and its influencing factors

Runoff change and trend of the Naoli River Basin were studied through the time series analysis using the data from the hydrological and meteorological stations. Time series of hydrological data were from 1957 to 2009 for Bao′an station, from 1955 to 2009 for Baoqing station, from 1956 to 2009 for Caizuizi station and from 1978 to 2009 for Hongqiling station. The influences of climate change and human activities on runoff change were investigated, and the causes of hydrological regime change were revealed. The seasonal runoff distribution of the Naoli River was extremely uneven, and the annual change was great. Overall, the annual runoff showed a significant decreasing trend. The annual runoff of Bao′an, Baoqing, and Caizuizi stations in 2009 decreased by 64.1%, 76.3%, and 84.3%, respectively, compared with their beginning data recorded. The wet and dry years of the Naoli River have changed in the study period. The frequency of wet year occurrence decreased and lasted longer, whereas that of dry year occurrence increased. The frequency of dry year occurrence increased from 25.0%-27.8% to 83.9%-87.5%. The years before the 1970s were mostly wet, whereas those after the 1970s were mostly dry. Precipitation reduction and land use changes contributed to the decrease in annual runoff. Rising temperature and water project construction have also contributed important effects on the runoff change of the Naoli River.     

Changes in Huanghe （Yellow） River estuary since artificial re-routing in 1996

With the combination of historical data, field observations and satellite remotely sensed images(Landsat TM/ETM and CBERS), changes in Huanghe (Yellow) River estuary since 1996 when artificial Chahe distributary was built up were studied, mainly including water and sediment discharge from the river, tides, tidal currents, suspended sediment diffusion, coastline changes and seabed development. During following six and half years (up to the end of 2002), runoff and sediment loads into the river mouth declined dramatically. At the beginning of the re-routing, abundant sediment loads from the river filled up nearshore shallow water areas so that the newborn delta prograded quickly. With rapid decrease of sediment loads transported to the estuary, the delta retrograded. In 1997, subaerial tip of the abandoned delta receded 1.5km; its annual mean recession rate was about 150 m in following years. In addition, marine dynamic condition near the artificial outlet had also changed. Under the interaction of ocean and river flow, most of incoming sediment loads deposited in the vicinity of the outlet. Seabed erosion occurred at the subaqueous delta front. Between 1999 and 2002, erosion thickness averaged at 0.3 m in the subaqueous delta of 585.5 km2.     

Modelling the Effects of Land-use Change on Runoff and Sediment Yield in the Weicheng River Watershed,Southwest China

As a major sediment area in the upper Yangtze River, Jialing River basin experienced substantial land-use changes, many water conservancy projects were constructed from the 1980 s onward to promote water and soil conservation. The water and sediment yield at the watershed outlet was strongly affected by these water conservation works, including ponds and reservoirs, which should be considered in the modelling. In this study, based on the observed data of the Weicheng River catchment, the relationships between precipitation, runoff, vegetation, topography and sediment yield were analyzed, a distributed runoff and sediment yield model(WSTD-SED) was developed, and the hydrological processes of different land-use scenarios were simulated by using the model. The main results are summarized as follows: 1) there is an alternating characteristic in river channels and reservoirs in the Jialing River hilly area, with scour occurring in wet years and deposit occurring in dry years. 2) Most of the sediment deposited in river channels and reservoirs is carried off by the largest flood in the year. 3) The model yielded plausible results for runoff and sediment yield dynamics without the need of calibration, and the WSTD-SED model could be usedto obtain qualitative estimates on the effects of land use change scenarios. 4) The modelling results suggest that a 10% increase in cropland(dry land) reforestation results in a 0.7% decrease in runoff and 1.5% decrease in sediment yield.     

基于GEE黄河三角洲长时序生态指数遥感估算与分析

基于遥感长时间序列的分析能够得到更加科学、完整、全面的特征规律,本文以黄河三角洲为研究区域,开展了生态指数遥感估算及分析研究。基于Google Earth Engine (GEE)分析了2000年以来逐年度归一化植被指数（NDVI）、湿度指数（Wet）、盐分指数（SI3）、遥感生态指数（RSEI）,获得了完整、细致长时间序列的分析结果。考虑到黄河三角洲的区域特点,引入了盐分指数（SI3）与遥感生态指数（RSEI）相结合的评价分析方法。研究发现,自2011年以来研究区的生态环境指数呈上升趋势,生态环境持续改善。     

Climate change and its effects on runoff of Kaidu River,Xinjiang, China: A multiple time-scale analysis

This paper applied an integrated method combining grey relation analysis, wavelet analysis and statistical analysis to study climate change and its effects on runoff of the Kaidu River at multi-time scales. Maj or findings are as follows： 1） Climatic factors were ranked in the order of importance to annual runoff as average annual temperature, average temperature in autumn, average temperature in winter, annual precipitation, precipitation in flood season, av- erage temperature in summer, and average temperature in spring. The average annual temperature and annual precipitation were selected as the two representative factors that impact the annual runoff. 2） From the 32-year time scale, the annual runoff and the average annual temperature presented a significantly rising trend, whereas the annual precipitation showed little increase over the period of 1957-2002. By changing the time scale from 32-year to 4-year, we observed nonlinear trends with increasingly obvious oscillations for annual runoff, average annual temperature, and annual precipitation. 3） The changes of the runoff and the regional climate are closely related, indicating that the runoff change is the result of the regional climate changes. With time scales ranging from 32-year, 16-year, 8-year and to 4-year, there are highly significant linear correlations between the annual runoff and the average annual temperature and the annual precipitation.     

Runoff responses to climate change in arid region of northwestern China during 1960–2010

Based on runoff, air temperature, and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010, the effects of climate change on water resources in the arid region of the northwestern China were investigated. The long-term trends of hydroclimatic variables were studied by using both Mann-Kendall test and distributed-free cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart test. Results indicate that the mean annual air temperature increases significantly from 1960 to 2010. The annual precipitation exhibits an increasing trend, especially in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the North Uygur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang in the study period. Step changes occur in 1988 in the mean annual air temperature time series and in 1991 in the precipitation time series. The runoff in different basins shows different trends, i.e., significantly increasing in the Kaidu River, the Aksu River and the Shule River, and decreasing in the Shiyang River. Correlation analysis reveals that the runoff in the North Xinjiang (i.e., the Weigan River, the Heihe River, and the Shiyang River) has a strong positive relationship with rainfall, while that in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the middle section of the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the Shule River has a strong positive relationship with air temperature. The trends of runoff have strong negative correlations with glacier coverage and the proportion of glacier water in runoff. From the late 1980s, the climate has become warm and wet in the arid region of the northwestern China. The change in runoff is interacted with air temperature, precipitation and glacier coverage. The results show that streamflow in the arid region of the northwestern China is sensitive to climate change, which can be used as a reference for regional water resource assessment and management.     

长江三角洲城市化地区植被初级生产力的时空变化研究

城市化过程对植被初级生产具有重要影响。以往研究主要集中于城市用地扩张对植被初级生产力的直接影响分析,而较少关注其间接效果。本文以长江三角洲地区为例,分别从地区尺度和城市尺度分别分析了2000-2013年植被初级生产力的时空变化,探讨了其与气温、降水量及城市建成区绿化覆盖率的关系。研究表明：地区尺度上,2000-2013年长江三角洲植被初级生产力呈现不断增加,其中城市建成区植被初级生产力呈现显著增加的趋势（P<0.05）;城市尺度上,城市建成区内植被初级生产力主要呈现增加的趋势,而其外围缓冲区内则与此相反。在当前气候变化背景下,这可能与城市建成区绿化覆盖率不断增加,及快速的城市扩张有关。     

RELATION BETWEEN PRECIPITATIONAND SEDIMENT TRANSPORT IN THE DASHA RIVER WATERSHED

The study on sediment production and its relationship with climatic and hydrological factors in watershed is a major environment issue of concern in the international community. Based on the observational records covering the period from 1954 to 1999, the characteristics of precipitation changing over the Dasha River Watershed in Anhui Province and its relation to sediment yield were studied using tendency analysis and correlation analysis.Results showed that the precipitation of the Dasha River Watershed has high variability. In those 46 years, 34% of spring rainfall, 58% of summer rainfall and 30% of annual rainfall will be considered anomaly. The gray correlation analysis shows that sediment discharge correlates most closely with the frequency of the rainstorm with a daily precipitation above 100mm, secondly with the frequency of the rainstorm with a daily precipitation of 50-100mm, and thirdly with the number of rainy days. Their correlation coefficients are 0.98,0.90 and 0.85 respectively. In addition,the paper suggests the major countermeasures and methods for controlling of soil and water losses in this area.     

秦巴山区植被覆盖与土壤湿度时空变化特征及其相互关系

基于2001-2014年MODIS-NDVI和MODIS-LST数据,利用温度植被干旱指数对土壤湿度进行遥感反演,分析了秦巴山区植被覆盖与土壤湿度时空变化特征及其相互关系。研究发现：① 秦巴山区植被覆盖与土壤湿度均呈增加趋势;② 植被覆盖整体水平较高且表现出“四周低,中间高”的空间分布特征,土壤湿度整体表现出“北低南高”的空间分布特征,大体上二者呈现出空间分布正相关性;③ 植被改善趋势表现明显,显著改善区分布分散,无明显集中区域,退化区域主要集中于北部渭河沿岸及东部边缘少量地区;土壤湿度增长态势明显,增大区分布于除西北边缘及东北边缘外的几乎整个研究区中,减小区域面积小且大部分表现不显著;④ 秦巴山区植被覆盖与土壤湿度时空变化上呈现出明显的正相关性,其中69.71%的区域表现出土壤湿度增大-植被覆盖改善的特征,分布于研究区除四周边缘地带外的大部分地区。     

土地利用和气候变化对海河流域蒸散发时空变化的影响

蒸散发（ET）是水文能量循环和气候系统的关键环节,研究ET的时空变化特征及其响应土地利用和气候变化的驱动机制对于理清流域水资源和气候变化的关系具有重要的意义。本文基于MOD16/ET数据集定量分析了海河流域2000-2014年ET的时空变化特征,并结合时序气温降水数据和土地利用数据,采用相关分析方法定量探索了ET与气候因子的驱动力关系。结果表明：① 海河流域2000-2014年ET表现为较为显著的空间分布格局,呈现出北部和南部高、西北部和中东部低的分布特性。不同土地利用类型的多年ET呈林地>草地>耕地>其他类型的特征;② 2000-2014年海河流域年均ET波动范围为371.96~441.29 mm/a,多年ET的均值为398.69 mm/a,平均相对变化率为-0.41%,整体呈下降趋势;③ 多年月ET与气温和降水均呈单峰型周期性变化趋势,年内月ET呈单峰变化趋势;④ 春秋两季的ET与降水和气温的相关性明显高于其他季节,ET与气温和降水的平均相关系数是-0.17和0.37,表明降水对于ET的响应程度强于气温;⑤ 驱动分区结果表明海河流域ET受气候因子驱动的主要类型是降水驱动型和降水、气温共同驱动型;⑥ 海河流域耕地ET变化气候因子驱动模式主要是降水、气温共同驱动型;林地、草地的驱动模式主要气温驱动型和降水驱动型,其他土地利用类型的驱动模式主要是受其他因素驱动。该研究将对海河流域水资源开发管理和区域气候调节起到科学指导作用。     

Temporal variations of water discharge and sediment load of Huanghe River, China

Based on the data from gauging stations,the changes in water discharge and sediment load of the Huanghe (Yellow)River were analyzed by using the empirical mode decomposition(EMD)method.The results show that the periodic oscillation of water discharge and sediment load of the Huanghe River occurs at the interannual,decadal,and multi-decadal scales,caused by the periodic oscillations of precipitation,and El Nio/Southern Oscillation(ENSO)affects water discharge by influencing precipitation distribution and contributes to periodic varations in precipitation and water discharge at interannual timescale.The water discharge and sediment load of the Huanghe River have decreased since the 1960s under the influence of precipitation and huamn activities,and human activities attribute more than precipitation to the reduction in the water discharge and sediment load,furthermore,water abstraction and water-soil conservation practices are the main causes of the decrease in water discharge and sediment load,respectively.The reduction in sediment load has directly impacted on the lower reaches of the Huanghe River and the river delta, causing considerable erosion of the river channel in the lower reaches since the 1970s along with River Delta changing siltation into erosion around 2000.     

SEDIMENT DISCHARGE OF THE HUANGHE RIVER AND ITS EFFECT ON SEDIMENTATION OF THE BOHAI SEA AND THE YELLOW SEA

The Huanghe (Yellow) River, with annual sediment discharge about 11 ×108tons, contributes about 17% of the fluvial sediment discharge of world's 21 major rivers to the ocean because its middle reaches flow across the great Loess Plateau of China. Sediment discharge of the Huanghe River has a widespread and profound effect on sedimentation of the sea. The remarkable shift of its outlet in 1128-1855 A.D. to the South Yellow Sea formed a large subaqueous delta and provided the substrate for an extensive submarine ridge field.The shift of its outlet in the modern delta every 10 years is the main reason why with an extremely heavy sediment input and a micro- tidal environment, the Huanghe River has not succeeded in building a birdfoot delta like the Mississippi. The Huanghe River has consistently brought heavy sediment input to sea at least since 0.7 myr.B.P. Paleochannels, paleosols, cheniers and fossils on the sea bottom indicate that the Yellow Sea was exposed during the late Quaternary glacial low-sea l     

IMPACTS OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE ON SALT WATER INTRUSION IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER ESTUARY

Sea level rise could increase the salinity of an estuary by altering the balance between fresh water and salt water. The implications of sea level rise for increasing salinity have been examined in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River estuary. By correlative analysis of chlorinity, discharge and tidal level and calculation of two-dimensional chlorinity, distribution of the Changjiang River estuary, the changes of the intensity and lasting hours of salt water intrusion at Wusong Station and the changes of chlorinity distribution in the South Branch of the Changjiang River estuary have been estimated when future sea level rises 50-100 cm. The intensity of salt water intrusion in the future will be far more serious than current trend.     

Assessing land use/land cover change impacts on the hydrology of Nyong River Basin,Cameroon

Uncontrolled land use land cover change(LULCC) is impacting watershed hydrology,particularly in tropical watersheds in developing countries. We assessed the extent of LULCC in the southern portion of the Nyong River basin through analysis of three land use maps in 1987, 2000 and2014. LULCC impact on hydrological variables of the Mbalmayo, Olama, Pont So'o, Messam, and Nsimi sub-watersheds of the southern portion of the Nyong River basin were evaluated by using the linear regression modeling and the Mann-Kendall test. This study reveals that dense forest cover decreased by16%, young secondary forest increased by 18%,agricultural/cropland increased by 10%, and built-up area/bare soil increased by 3% from 1987 to 2014.The decrease in dense forest cover at 0.6% per year on average was driven by indiscriminate expansion of subsistence agricultural/cropland through shifting and fallow cultivation farming systems. Nonsignificant trends in total discharge, high flows, and low flows were observed in the large sub-watersheds of Mbalmayo and Olama from 1998 to 2013 with LULCC within the watershed. In contrast, significant decreasing trends in stream discharge(up to-5.1%and-5.9%), and significant increasing trends in high flows(up to 2.1% and 6.3%), respectively, were observed in the small sub-watersheds of Pont So'o and Messam from 1998 to 2013, particularly with increase in agricultural/cropland cover and decrease in dense forest cover. However, we found nonsignificant trends in mean annual discharge and low flows for all and whole watershed with LULCC. The results reveal spatially varying trends of stream discharge, low flows and high flows among the subwatersheds with LULCC within the study watershed.The results suggest that the impacts of LULCC on watershed hydrology are easily detected in small subwatersheds than in large sub-watersheds. Therefore,the magnitude of dense forest cover loss must be significantly greater than 16% to cause significant changes and common trends in the hydrology of the sub-watersheds of the southern portion of the Nyong River basin. The Mann-Kendall and Regression approaches show appreciable potential for modelling the impacts of LULCC on the hydrology of the southern portion of the Nyong River basin and for informing forest management.     

基于HJ-1B/IRS的重庆市热岛效应监测应用

本文利用MODIS数据反演大气透射率,利用HJ-1B/CCD进行分类,并反演地表比辐射率.在此基础上,借鉴单窗算法,利用HJ-1B/IRS数据反演得到地表温度,并利用MODIS温度产品对反演结果进行了初步验证.最后利用热场变异指数进一步分析重庆的热岛空间分布特征,并对NDVI与NDBI对热岛效应的影响进行了分析.其结论...