On the consistency of earthquake moment release and space geodetic strain rates: Europe

In this paper, approximately 100 VLBI/SLR/GPS velocities map European strain rates from <0.09 × 10⁻⁸ to >9.0 × 10⁻⁸ yr⁻¹ with regional uncertainties of 20 to 40 per cent. Kostrov's formula translates these strain-rate values into regional geodetic moment rates M¯˙ _geodetic . Two other moment rates, M¯˙ _seismic , extracted from a 100-year historical catalogue and M¯˙ _plate , taken from plate-tectonic models, contrast the geodetic rates. In Mediterranean Europe, the ratios of M¯˙ _seismic to M¯˙ _geodetic are between 0.50 and 0.71. In Turkey the ratio falls to 0.22. Although aseismic deformation may contribute to the earthquake deficit ( M¯˙ _seismic values less than M¯˙ _geodetic ), the evidence is not compelling because the magnitudes of the observed shortfalls coincide with the random variations expected in a 100-year catalogue. If the lack of aseismic deformation inferred from the 100-year catalogue holds true for longer periods, then much of Europe's strain budget would have to be accommodated by more frequent or larger earthquakes than have been experienced this century to raise the ratios of M¯˙ _seismic to M¯˙ _geodetic to unity. Improved geological fault data bases, longer historical earthquake catalogues, and densification of the continent's space geodetic network will clarify the roles of aseismic deformation versus statistical quiescence.     

Relation between deformation and seismicity in the active fault zone of Kamchatka, Russia

In the regional geodetic network of the Russian Far East, an active fault zone of the Kamchatka peninsula has been selected in order to study the relation between seismic activity and deformation. This paper provides the first results of a detailed and high-precision 3-km long levelling profile, along which geodetic data have been collected weekly for almost three years. The data processing and analytical methods that were originally used have been elaborated for this particular type of very small local network. In the active fault zone, two distinct ways of releasing accumulated potential energy, i.e. seismicity and 'fault superintensive movements', have been registered. The inverse correlation that is discovered between deformation rate and seismic activity could be useful in earthquake forecasts.     

Coseismic deformation revealed by inversion of strong motion and GPS data: the 2003 Chengkung earthquake in eastern Taiwan

A moderate earthquake of   M _w= 6.8  occurred on 2003 December 10. It ruptured the Chihshang Fault in eastern Taiwan which is the most active segment of the Longitudinal fault as a plate suture fault between the Luzon arc of the Philippine Sea plate and the Eurasian plate. The largest coseismic displacements were 13 cm (horizontal) and 26 cm (vertical). We analyse 40 strong motion and 91 GPS data to model the fault geometry and coseismic dislocations. The most realistic shape of the Chihshang fault surface is listric in type. The dipping angle of the seismic zone is steep (about 60°–70°) at depths shallower than 10 km and then gradually decreases to 40°–50° at depths of 20–30 km. Thus the polygonal elements in Poly3D are well suited for modelling complex surfaces with curving boundaries. Using the strong motion data, the displacement reaches 1.2 m dip-slip on the Chihshang Fault and decreases to 0.1 m near surface. The slip averages 0.34 m, releasing a scalar moment of 1.6E26 dyne-cm. For GPS data, our model reveals that the maximal dislocation is 1.8 m dip-slip. The dislocations decrease to 0.1 m near the surface. The average slip is 0.48 m, giving a scalar moment of 2.2E26 dyne-cm. Regarding post-seismic deformation, a displacements of 0.5 m were observed near the Chihshang Fault, indicating the strain had not been totally released, as a probable result of near-surface locking of the fault zone.     

Temporal and spatial variations of post-seismic deformation following the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake

We use GPS displacements collected in the 15 months after the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake  ( M _w 7.6)  to evaluate whether post-seismic deformation is better explained by afterslip or viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle. We find that all viscoelastic models tested fail to fit the general features in the post-seismic GPS displacements, in contrast to the satisfactory fit obtained with afterslip models. We conclude that afterslip is the dominant mechanism in the 15-month period, and invert for the space–time distribution of afterslip, using the Extended Network Inversion Filter. Our results show high slip rates surrounding the region of greatest coseismic slip. The slip-rate distribution remains roughly stationary over the 15-month period. In contrast to the limited coseismic slip on the décollement, afterslip is prominent there. Maximum afterslip of 0.57 m occurs downdip and to the east of the hypocentral region. Afterslip at hypocentral depths is limited to the southern part of the main shock rupture, with little or no slip on the northern section where coseismic slip was greatest. Whether this results from along strike variations in frictional properties or dynamic conditions that locally favour stable sliding is not clear. In general, afterslip surrounds the area of greatest coseismic slip, consistent with post-seismic slip driven by the main shock stress change. The total accumulated geodetic afterslip moment is  3.8 × 10¹⁹ N m  , significantly more than the seismic moment released by aftershocks,  6.6 × 10¹⁸ N m  . Afterslip and aftershocks appear to have different temporal evolutions and some spatial correlations, suggesting that aftershock rates may not be completely controlled by the rate of afterslip.     

Coseismic well-level changes due to the 1992 Roermond earthquake compared to static deformation of half-space solutions

The M _w 5.4 Roermond earthquake of 1992 April 13 was one of the strongest events during the last 500 years in Central Europe. For the period March–May 1992, we collected records of 194 continuously operating well-level sensors, mostly located within 120  km of the epicentre. Nearly all wells penetrate unconfined or poorly confined Quaternary deposits with high hydraulic conductivities. 81 out of 194 raw data sets show a significant dynamic or step-like response of centimetre amplitude to the passage of seismic waves. Precursory anomalies are not obvious in these records. Coseismic well-level fluctuations could reflect a redistribution of stress and pore pressure in the brittle crust. Systematic analyses of such fluctuations may improve our knowledge of the role of pore fluids in crustal rheology and earthquake mechanics. The rather high number of individual observational records for a single event allows a regional correlation of the signs and amplitudes of the coseismic steps to changes in volume strain caused by the earthquake. The coseismic strain field at the surface was calculated for a homogeneous and a layered half-space. The results show reasonable agreement in the sign of the well-level steps but the amplitudes predicted from the wells' volumetric strain responses are much smaller than those that were recorded. Clearly, the coseismic well-level steps cannot be explained by volume strain changes, as derived from linear elastic models.