Towards an integrated management framework for emerging disaster risks in Japan

An integrated framework for disaster risk management is presented to cope with the risk of low-probability high-consequence (LPHC) disasters in urban communities. Since the 2000 Tokai flood in Japan, there has been a shift in the management strategy from disaster prevention with a presumed zero risk to disaster reduction with an acceptable risk. The framework consists of: (i) integration of a different categories of risk reduction options in terms of structural and nonstructural measures, regulation and market-oriented measures, (ii) strengthening of the capacity of local communities to make their own management choices for LPHC-type disaster risks, and (iii) promoting the participation of stakeholders throughout the entire cycle of risk management. The interdisciplinary framework is discussed with reference to lessons learned from two recent major flood disasters (the 2000 Tokai flood and the 2004 Niigata flood). To implement the goals of the integrated framework, a participatory platform for disaster risk communication called “Pafrics” has been developed. Preliminary results of the pilot study of participation and risk communication supported by Pafrics are presented.     

堰塞坝堆积演化过程及开发利用研究进展

堰塞坝险情的形成演化与综合开发治理是防灾减灾领域研究的焦点问题,因坝体形成过程特殊、内部结构复杂、组成材料不均且堆积形态迥异,导致其与人工坝体差异较大,目前仍缺乏有效的安全性评估方法及科学的开发治理措施。本文列举了国内外典型的堰塞坝事件,从堰塞坝的形成、类型和结构特征等方面,总结了已有的研究成果,阐述了堰塞坝的形成机理,重点分析了崩塌、滑坡、泥石流堰塞坝的堆积演化过程研究。归纳了目前堰塞坝应急处置和综合治理的工程措施与非工程措施,列举了堰塞坝蓄水发电、引水灌溉、环境旅游等开发利用的成功案例。通过文献和案例汇编,建立了堰塞坝事件研究的文献资料库。鉴于堰塞坝较高的溃决风险和开发潜能,提出当前研究存在的主要问题和继续努力的研究方向,为堰塞坝的风险预测及开发利用提供有益参考。     

基于灰色关联度法的可拓理论在霍尔古吐水电站坝址区泥石流危险性评价中的应用

泥石流危险性评价是灾情预测、防灾救灾决策中的重要内容,是国内外灾害科学研究的热点之一。本文以新疆开都河霍尔古吐水电站坝址区群沟泥石流为研究对象,在对泥石流区域地质环境研究的基础上,选取泥石流规模、爆发频率等8个因素作为评价因子,采用灰色关联度确定评价因子权重,运用可拓理论,通过定性和类比的方法对群发泥石流区域进行危险性评价。将评价结果与刘希林提出的单沟泥石流评价结果比较,清水沟与雪莲沟的可拓法评价危险度等级要高于单沟泥石流评价结果,这一结果和现场调查情况相吻合。因此,基于灰色关联度法的可拓理论对霍尔古吐水电站坝址区群发泥石流危险度评价结果合理可靠,进而为坝区泥石流危险性评估、规划防治提供合理的科学依据。     

Getting Canadians prepared for natural disasters: a multi-method analysis of risk perception,behaviors, and the social environment

As part of our broader research agenda on the psychology of risk communication and of risk management, we use a socio-ecological approach, inspired by Bronfenbrenner (Am Psychol 32:513–531, 1977. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066x.32.7.513), to better understand how Canadians perceive and prepare for risks originating from natural disasters. In this article, we present three empirical mixed-method studies as layers of analysis—a national survey, a social-spatial multi-level analysis, and a series of qualitative interviews—to bring a better understanding of how to engage Canadians in disaster preparedness and risk management. From our data, we examined how individuals perceived and understood natural disaster risks in Canada and how these fit in their social and life contexts. Given the increasingly diverse Canadian population, we used a cultural lens to contrast immigrants to Canadian-born individuals. After introducing the conceptual background and presenting our empirical studies, we conclude with a discussion on the implications for risk communication and management for natural disasters. Our findings suggest that Canadians could benefit from culturally targeted disaster risk reduction strategies that engage individuals–communities–government at all levels and are more attuned to the realities and specificities of life stressors.

     

Integrated Risk Assessment and Governance of Multi-hazards in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

The construction of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is one of the major strategic initiatives to promote the sustained and steady growth of China's economy at current and the new normal stages. Comprehensive enhancing the governance levels of various natural disaster risks in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is the basic guarantee for promoting the implementation of the development strategy. Based on the multi-hazard integrated risk theory, the main disaster risks of the core cities (Shanghai, Wuhan, and Chongqing) of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the major risk-earthquake disaster chain were systematically analyzed. The status and existing problems of multi-hazard integrated risk governance in the Yangtze River Economic Belt were expounded in this paper. The main problems include: Insufficient understanding of multi-hazard integrated risk formation mechanism; low level of safety fortification; Imperfect regional coordination and linkage mechanism; and insufficient role of insurance and reinsurance in risk transfer. Finally, the overall promotion strategies were proposed, including establishing multi-hazard integrated risk identification mechanism and governance capability evaluation system; comprehensive improving the fortification level of multi-hazard integrated risk prevention; establishing multi-hazard and multi-party linkage disaster monitoring and early warning systems; strengthening major disaster risk management and evacuation facilities construction; accelerating the construction of catastrophe insurance systems based on multi-hazard risks. This will provide a theoretical reference for major disaster risks studies in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.     

京郊门城镇地面塌陷危险性研究

采空地面塌陷是门城镇地区危害性最严重的地质灾害类型。根椐实地勘察资料 ,论述了地面塌陷的分布特征和形成条件 ;选取与塌陷密切相关的 1 1个因素 ,采用二级模糊综合评判法对地面塌陷的危险度进行了分区预测。     

A preliminary discussion on the opportunities and challenges of linking climate change adaptation with disaster risk reduction

Managing the risks of extreme events such as natural disasters to advance climate change adaptation (CCA) has been a global focus. However, a critical challenge in supporting CCA is to improve its linkage with disaster risk reduction (DRR). Based on discussions on similarities and differences between CCA and DRR concerning their spatial–temporal scales, main focuses, preferred research approaches and methodologies, etc., this paper tentatively put forward an analytical framework of “6W” for linking DRR with CCA. This framework presented preliminary answers to a series of fundamental questions, such as “What is adaptation with respect to disaster risk?” “Why adaptation is needed?” “Who adapt to what?” “How to adapt?” “What are the possible principles to assess the adaptation effect?” To bridge the research gaps between CCA and DRR, it is imperative to associate the adaptation actions with both near-term disaster risk and long-term climate change and formulate adaptation strategies at various spatial–temporal scales by embracing uncertainty in a changing climate.     

喜马拉雅东构造结工程选址面临的地质安全挑战

喜马拉雅东构造结是全球构造活动最强烈、地质环境最复杂、地质灾害最频发的地区之一, 工程规划建设面临板块构造带的构造错断、深埋工程灾变、松动山体失稳、流域性地质灾害链等灾难性地质安全风险。如何在活动构造带内选择相对稳定与安全的场址, 实现工程规划建设与运营的地质安全风险最小化, 是当前工程地质领域的重要课题。文章系统梳理了东构造结地区重大地质安全问题, 发现传统的工程选址理论已无法满足喜马拉雅东构造结工程选址的要求, 工程选址面临地质演化过程与工程区地质建造不清、构造活动性与强震灾害风险突出、深部构造应力场与灾变研究薄弱、超高位超远程地质灾害链形势严峻等重大地质安全挑战。为此, 文章从"区域地质演化与工程地质问题" "活动断裂及工程安全风险" "复杂地应力场及工程灾变风险" "流域性地质灾害链工程风险" "东构造结工程选址理论方法"共5个方面提出工程选址主要研究方向, 为完善工程选址风险评价与防控方法提供思路。      

三峡库区沿江城镇地质灾害风险评价——以重庆市万州区大周镇为例

针对三峡水利枢纽工程建成蓄水后,涉水新型城镇建设面临的地质灾害及其风险定量评价难问题,在地质灾害精细化调查基础上,以重庆市万州区大周镇集镇区为例,通过分析计算地质灾害的发育特征、稳定性和危害性,构建了基于斜坡单元的危险性评价和基于危险源分析的承灾体易损性评价的城镇尺度地质灾害风险评价框架。定量计算不同重现期降雨极值情景下的斜坡稳定性和不同灾害强度下承灾体易损性,实现了库区集镇区地质灾害风险评价; 基于社会经济发展和地质灾害风险现状分析,提出了大周镇集镇区国土空间规划建议。地质灾害风险评价结果对制定地方发展规划具有指导意义,评价方法对同类沿江城镇地质灾害风险评价具有参考价值。     

Prioritization of disaster risk in a community using GIS

Prioritization of disaster risk was carried out for a community in Toronto, Canada. Geographic information systems (GIS) were used for spatial analysis, including spatial overlays and clipping for extracting spatial and attribute information related to people’s vulnerability, critical infrastructure and landuse. In order to determine disaster risk, the overall community vulnerability was evaluated by combining social, economic, physical and environmental vulnerabilities. This paper uses the propane explosion incident as the case in point to demonstrate the methodology and procedure used to evaluate risk using GIS techniques. City of Toronto spatial data have been integrated with the study area to gather landuse information, identify risk zones based on the propane storage facility location and evaluate risks. Statistics Canada 2006 census data have been used for area demographics and people’s social and economic status. Vulnerability indicators were determined based on the GIS-derived spatial and attribute data for the hazard and evacuation zones followed by a quantitative spatial risk estimation and ranking. The methodology of this study, based on the risk evaluation and prioritization conducted, can be applied to future decision making in effective landuse planning and the development of risk management strategies.     

基于高分影像与InSAR解译的西藏林芝则隆弄高位链式地质灾害发育特征分析

则隆弄沟位于西藏林芝米林县雅鲁藏布江右岸,属于震后影响区,因沟内地形陡峻、物源充足以及水源充沛,1950—2020年期间沟内高位地质灾害活动频繁,沟口村庄和桥梁长期遭受其严重威胁。根据现场调查与无人机航拍,结合多期遥感影像和InSAR数据,对则隆弄沟形成区高风险物源类别、数量以及流通区、堆积区的松散堆积物运动堆积特征进行解译,结果显示:目前则隆弄沟内形成区与流通区陡缓坡交界区域多级多期堆积有大量冰碛物松散物源,流动性较强,区域地质条件、地震活动、气象水文等因素为则隆弄高位链式地质灾害发生提供不稳定的物源结构、良好的临空条件和储藏平台、充足的势动能转换条件以及水动力条件。总结出则隆弄高位地质灾害链形成及演化过程为:高位冰崩（岩崩）-碎屑流-泥石流-堵江堰塞坝（湖）-洪水灾害,其长期具备高易发性和高危险性,后期应加强则隆弄沟高位地质灾害链的监测预警与风险防控。     

Economic risk maps of floods and earthquakes for European regions

Europe experiences different natural hazards and subsequent risks that have various effects on the development of its regions. The spatial significance of hazards can be expressed as an economic risk when combining hazard potential with vulnerability data. Two examples of European natural hazard maps on floods and earthquakes, as well as the resulting risk profiles of regions (combination of hazard potential and vulnerability) give a first impression on the spatial characters of hazards in Europe and their potential impact on further spatial development. The economic risk maps enable a view on the spatial dimension of the economic damage potential of flood and earthquakes, pointing out comparable situations across Europe with the aim to facilitate targeted responses and policies. The spatial character of a hazard is either defined by spatial effects that might occur in case of a disaster or by the possibility of spatial planning responses. The integration of the economic vulnerability of a region (regional GDP per capita, population density) leads to a classification of areas according to their economic risk or damage potential towards hazards. These synthetic risk profiles are presented as risk maps of European regions in administrative boundaries. Obtained information can be of interest for spatial planning and development strategies, e.g. economic risk profile of regions can influence the targets of investments and could thus be an important background for structural funding.     

The tourism disaster vulnerability framework: an application to tourism in small island destinations

Islands are known to be vulnerable to natural hazards, resulting in substantial risks for their tourism industries. To facilitate the systematic analysis of the underlying vulnerability drivers, a tourism disaster vulnerability framework was developed. The conceptual model then guided qualitative empirical research in three regions: the Caribbean, the South Pacific, and the Indian Ocean. The results from 73 interviews highlight common, as well as idiosyncratic, factors that shape the islands’ hazardscapes and vulnerabilities. Key vulnerabilities included social, economic, political, and environmental dimensions. Probably, the most critical vulnerability driver is the lack of private sector investment in disaster risk reduction. This is interrelated with deficient planning processes, on-going demand for coastal products, lack of political will, and poor environmental conditions. Notwithstanding many barriers, some businesses and organisations engage proactively in addressing disaster risk. The paper’s empirical evidence supports the validity of the framework, and suggestions for further research are made.     

A new viewpoint of hazard assessment and management for Taiwan��s insurance issues

High rates of urbanization, environmental degradation, and industrial development in disaster-prone areas have all served to increase the extent of damage following catastrophes. Recently, losses from environmental hazards have escalated, which has resulted in a noticeable change in policy, with more emphasis on loss reduction through mitigation, preparedness, and recovery programs. This study focuses on natural disaster management in which the direct risks are posed by the natural disasters themselves. This paper presents a review of issues surrounding natural disaster risk control and insurance in Taiwan. It proposes the use of background information concerning risk control strategies as well as earthquake, typhoon, and flood insurance in Taiwan. Finally, an insurance case study is utilized to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology.     

自然灾害风险初议

自然灾害风险的研究与评价是制定减灾对策、土地利用规划、社会发展与经济建设规划及保险展业的基础工作。自然灾害风险是灾害科学的前沿性研究课题。本文对自然灾害风险的特点、分类、形成原因、构成要素、结构层次、分析方法和研究风险的基本步骤进行了初步的讨论,以期在推动我国自然灾害风险研究中起到抛砖引玉的作用。     

Current status of the debate about the age of Lake Nyos dam (Cameroon) and its bearing on potential flood hazards

Scientific visits to Lake Nyos in Northwestern Cameroon in the aftermath of the gas disaster that killed over 1,750 people in 1986 revealed the presence of a pyroclastic natural dam in the northern border of the lake. This dam is being affected by back erosion. Collapse of the dam could cause a flood that would affect inhabited areas over a 220?km distance. Timing of dam collapse has been hotly debated based on vastly different carbon-14 and potassium-argon formation ages. In previous work, we used uranium series disequilibria to suggest a formation age of >5,000?years. Detailed comparison of uranium series and trace element data for lavas of Lake Nyos and Mt. Cameroon, both belonging to the Cameroon Volcanic Line, suggests that Lake Nyos basalts erupted with an initial radium-226/thorium-230 ratio that is two times higher than lavas erupting on Mt. Cameroon today. This information is used to infer an age of 8,750?±?490?years, which we suggest is the formation age of the Lake Nyos dam. The erosion rate deduced from this age does not indicate that collapse of the dam from back erosion alone and the attendant potential flood disaster are as eminent and alarming as previously thought. However, other factors militate for action to secure the dam. Work is underway to reinforce it by engineering methods.     

岩溶塌陷研究现状及趋势分析

为全面掌握当前国际岩溶塌陷研究动态,促进岩溶塌陷综合防治水平提升,重点从成因机制、识别评价和监测预警三个方面总结了当前国内外岩溶塌陷研究现状,以此为基础,综合运用文献和项目数据对国内外岩溶塌陷研究趋势进行了分析。结果显示:人类工程活动与岩溶环境相互作用关系是当前国际岩溶塌陷研究的热点;成因机理定量化、隐患识别快速化、监测预警精细化和风险防控时效化将是未来的重点攻关方向。      

Identification and assessment of heavy rainfall–induced disaster potentials in Taipei City

With increasing threat to lives and properties, identifying and assessing disaster potentials has become necessary and prior for effective disaster preparation and rescue planning. This study first introduces practical methods currently used in Taipei City, Taiwan, to identify and assess heavy rainfall–induced potential risks on flood, debris flow, and landslide. The identified disaster potential information is further applied to a series of deterministic and probabilistic risk analyses using Shilin District of Taipei City as a case study. The deterministic risk analyses are conducted to evaluate the impact of various heavy rainfall intensities on the residents. The probabilistic risk analyses are performed to establish risk curves for the population affected by heavy rainfall–induced hazards. The risk curve represents the relationships between the affected population and the annual exceedance probability. This study found the annual exceedance probability is very sensitive to the assumed coefficients of variation of the affected population. It is recommended historical statistical data on the correlation between affected population and rainfall intensity should be recorded and compiled in order to assess the actual probability distribution function of the affected population. Risk analysis results are further applied to assess the community evacuation capacity in this district. Last, short-term and long-term mitigation strategies and recommendations are discussed.     

基于贝叶斯网络的梯级水库连溃风险

为研究梯级水库漫坝连溃的风险,并探索贝叶斯网络在水库连溃风险分析中的可行性,通过构建洪水作用下双库连溃的贝叶斯网络模型,并选取四川省大渡河上两相邻梯级水库进行分析,以推求水库漫（溃）坝概率及评估连溃风险。分析过程表明贝叶斯网络方法能直观、简便地分析多风险源共同作用下的水库群连溃风险问题。结果表明,两水库天然洪水漫坝条件概率的数量级均为10-6,洪水引发单库漫坝风险较小;正常蓄水位以上,上游水库溃坝洪水致下游水库漫坝条件概率超0.8,即上游水库溃坝导致水库连溃的风险很大。     

崩塌滑坡地质灾害风险排序方法研究

我国地质灾害具有点多面广的分布特点,而地质灾害风险管控人力和能力有限,因此需要开展地质灾害风险排序工作,筛选出优先管控的地质灾害隐患点,确保地质灾害风险管控对策实施的针对性和高效性。地质灾害风险排序的实质是运用定量化风险评价计算出每处隐患点的风险值,然后根据风险值开展排序工作。目前定量化风险评价模型多用于单个地质灾害点风险评价,并未应用于大范围地质灾害风险排序工作,且模型较为复杂,推广应用较难。在分析崩塌、滑坡地质灾害与其环境因素间的响应关系及规律的基础上,提取崩塌、滑坡地质灾害的主控环境因子与诱发因子,联合人口、物质、资源等易损性因子建立地质灾害风险评价指标体系;基于岩石工程系统相互作用矩阵与专家打分法确定各级地质灾害风险评价指标因子权重,构建地质灾害风险评分体系;并根据风险评价定义,提出了能够快速定量化的简易地质灾害风险计算模型。以贵州省98处地质灾害隐患点为例,开展模型应用验证,风险排序结果与灾害管理机构主观认识的实际风险一致,验证了本模型的合理性与有效性,提高了地质灾害风险管控能力与效率。