Earthquake disaster risk assessment and evaluation for Turkey

Turkey is the one country in which 90% of the buildings are subject to the risk of earthquake disaster. Recent earthquakes revealed that Turkey’s present residential reinforced-concrete constructions are insufficient in earthquake resistance. Many of the buildings which collapsed or were severely damaged have been rehabilitated by applying simple methods, whose adequacy is questionable. As in Japan and the United States, Turkey’s earthquake assessment studies have increased, especially after earthquakes in 1999, In US, several methodologies and standards, such as Hazard-US (HAZUS) and Applied Technology Council (ATC) 13-20-21 and 156, provide comprehensive earthquake loss estimation methodology for post-earthquake assessment. This paper provides post-earthquake assessment and disaster management for Turkey. The main aim of the post-earthquake assessment discussed is to evaluate loss and estimate damage through disaster management approach. Classification criteria for damage are essential to determine the situation after an earthquake in both the short and long terms. The methodology includes probabilistic-based analysis, which considers the magnitude of Ms ≥ 5.0 earthquakes between 1900 and 2005, for determining the probabilistic seismic hazard for Turkey.     

断裂性质与滑坡分布的关系——以汶川地震中的大型滑坡为例

美姑河流域地处全球滑坡灾害密集的云贵高原与川西南山地过渡带,该地区因地貌类型特殊,大型-巨型滑坡数量多、危害重、成因机理复杂,成为河谷区重大工程和城镇建设的安全隐患。笔者在国内外古滑坡研究成果分析的基础上,总结了美姑河流域古滑坡时空展布、滑坡对顺构造地貌响应、滑坡孕灾-控灾机理,滑坡成灾模式与主控因素等方面的研究进展。结合当前滑坡防灾减灾实际需求,提出美姑河流域顺构造地貌控制下古滑坡孕灾模式研究的3个优选方向：(1)不同发育强度的顺构造地貌对滑坡孕灾-控灾模式,(2)构造差异隆升对顺构造地貌区大型滑坡发育的孕灾模式,(3)通过古滑坡年代学研究建立断裂、褶皱、古地震和古气候变化与滑坡发育的对应联系。破解这些研究方向的关键科学问题,将为西南山区古滑坡研究及防灾减灾起到积极指导作用。     

Landslides in Emilia-Romagna region (Italy): strategies for hazard assessment and risk management

In Emilia-Romagna, over 32,000 landslide bodies cover one-fifth of the hilly and mountainous territory. The majority of them originated as earth-flows after the last glacial maximum and grew during the rainiest periods of the Holocene through the superimposition of new earth-flows. Reactivation of these large landslides is the main problem the geologists of Emilia-Romagna are facing now. Intense and/or prolonged precipitation play a major role as triggering factors in reactivating landslide bodies, but also the importance of snowmelt is suggested by the monthly distribution of landslide events. Almost all the present-day landslide activity is due to the reactivation of pre-existing landslide bodies. Consequently, territorial planning and geo-thematic cartography are fundamental tools for the reduction of risk. The Emilia-Romagna geo-thematic cartography (1:10,000) is legally binding and regulates land use in regional, municipal and basin plans.     

Earthquake recurrence assessment of the active Shanchiao Fault in northern Taiwan

The Shanchiao Fault is an active normal fault located in the Taipei metropolis, northern Taiwan. Faulting activities have been observed from both the long-term geological data and the short-term GPS surface deformation along the fault. Particularly, with recent studies suggesting the potential of triggering an M_w 7.0-plus earthquake, the Shanchiao Fault is posing a direct seismic threat to the most important, densely populated Taipei metropolitan area in Taiwan. As a result, this study aims to evaluate the earthquake recurrence probability of the Shanchiao Fault, in an attempt to estimate the seismic hazard and help in decision-making for the Taiwan government. Given the capability of capturing the stochastic nature of tectonic stress accumulating, this study used the Brownian model to calculate the earthquake recurrence of the Shanchiao Fault. From the analysis, the recurrence probabilities of the Shanchiao Fault are determined at 8.3 and 17.4% for the next 50 and 100 years, respectively.     

Earthquake risk to industry in Istanbul and its management

Istanbul is home to 40% of the industrial facilities in Turkey. Thirty percent of the population working in industry lives in the city. Past earthquakes have evidenced that the structural reliability of residential and industrial buildings in the country is questionable. In the Marmara region the earthquake hazard is very high with a 2% annual probability of occurrence of a magnitude 7+ earthquake on the main Marmara fault. These facts make the management of industrial risks imperative for the reduction of socioeconomic losses. In this paper we present a first-order assessment of earthquake damage to the industry in Istanbul and raise issues for better characterization and quantification of industrial losses and management of urban industrial risks. This paper borrows from the project report entitled ‘Earthquake Risk Assessment for Industrial Facilities in Istanbul’. The full report can be found at http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/depremmuh.html under the link ‘Research and Applied Projects’.     

An integrated flood risk assessment model for property insurance industry in Taiwan

Taiwan is located in an area affected by Northwest Pacific typhoons, which are also one of the most important sources of rainfall to the island. Unfortunately, the abundant rainfall brought by typhoons frequently produces hazards. In recent years, typhoons and floods have caused serious damage, especially Typhoon Morakot in 2009. In this study, a probabilistic model is developed based on historical events which can be used to assess flood risk in Taiwan. There are 4 separate modules in this model, including a rainfall event module, a hydraulic module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Local data obtained from the Taiwan government are used to construct this model. Historical rainfall data for typhoon and flood events that have occurred since 1960, obtained from the Central Weather Bureau, are used for computing the maximum daily rainfall for each basin. In addition, the latest flood maps from the Water Resources Agency are collected to assess the probable inundation depth. A case study using the local data is carried out. Assessment is made to predict possible economic loss from different financial perspectives such as the total loss, insured loss, and loss exceeding probabilities. The assessment results can be used as a reference for making effective flood risk management strategies in Taiwan.     

Integrated application of the analytic hierarchy process and the geographic information system for flood risk assessment and flood plain management in Taiwan

Flooding is one of the major natural hazards in Taiwan, and most of the low-lying areas in Taiwan are flood-prone areas. In order to minimize loss of life and economic losses, a detailed and comprehensive decision-making tool is necessary for both flood control planning and emergency service operations. The objectives of this research were (i) to develop a hierarchical structure through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to provide preferred options for flood risk analysis, (ii) to map the relative flood risk using the geographic information system (GIS), and (iii) to integrate these two methodologies and apply them to one urban and one semi-rural area in central Taiwan. Fushin Township and the floodplain of Fazih River (1 km on either side of the channel) in Taichung City were selected for this study. In this paper, the flood risk is defined as the relative flood risk due to broken dikes or the failure of stormwater drainage systems. Seven factors were considered in relation to the failure of stormwater drainage, and five to that of broken dikes. Following well-defined procedures, flood maps were drawn based on the data collected from expert responses to a questionnaire, the field survey, satellite images, and documents from flood management agencies. The relative values of flood risk are presented using a 200-m grid for the two study areas. It is concluded that integration of AHP and GIS in flood risk assessment can provide useful detailed information for flood risk management, and the method can be easily applied to most areas in Taiwan where required data sets are readily available.     

Earthquake risk assessment in NE India using deep learning and geospatial analysis

Earthquake prediction is currently the most crucial task required for the probability, hazard, risk mapping, and mitigation purposes. Earthquake prediction attracts the researchers' attention from both academia and industries. Traditionally, the risk assessment approaches have used various traditional and machine learning models. However, deep learning techniques have been rarely tested for earthquake probability mapping. Therefore, this study develops a convolutional neural network (CNN) model for earthquake probability assessment in NE India. Then conducts vulnerability using analytical hierarchy process (AHP), Venn's intersection theory for hazard, and integrated model for risk mapping. A prediction of classification task was performed in which the model predicts magnitudes more than 4 Mw that considers nine indicators. Prediction classification results and intensity variation were then used for probability and hazard mapping, respectively. Finally, earthquake risk map was produced by multiplying hazard, vulnerability, and coping capacity. The vulnerability was prepared by using six vulnerable factors, and the coping capacity was estimated by using the number of hospitals and associated variables, including budget available for disaster management. The CNN model for a probability distribution is a robust technique that provides good accuracy. Results show that CNN is superior to the other algorithms, which completed the classification prediction task with an accuracy of 0.94, precision of 0.98, recall of 0.85, and F1 score of 0.91. These indicators were used for probability mapping, and the total area of hazard (21,412.94 km²), vulnerability (480.98 km²), and risk (34,586.10 km²) was estimated.     

Hazard management and risk design by optimal statistical analysis

Elicitation methods are used in decision making with respect to risk hazards to allow a researcher to infer the subjective utilities of outcomes from the observed preferences of an individual. A questionnaire method is presented, in this study, which takes into account the inevitable distortion of preferences by random errors and minimizes the effect of such errors. Under mild assumptions, the method for eliciting the utilities of many outcomes is a three-stage procedure. First, the questionnaire is utilized to elicit responses from which a subjective score is defined. Second, individual risk factors are discussed. Finally, the regression model presents individual risk preferences given the overall organizational risk culture, risk management policy, risk identification, and risk analysis. This paper addresses how company managers face risk and their tolerance of risk with respect to risk management.     

Vulnerability assessment for preliminary flood risk mapping and management in coastal areas

Despite continuing technological advancement in hazard and vulnerability assessment, risk modelling and hazard mitigation techniques, losses to disasters associated with natural hazards continue and in some cases are increasing across Europe and worldwide. This paper focuses on the need to bridge the gap between technical solutions and the sociopolitical contexts in which these are produced, to better understand and create more effective risk management regimes. We do so with application of the science–policy co-production frame to landslide risk management in Italy. The methodology deployed included a desk study informed by semi-structured interviews carried out with selected key stakeholders at national, regional and municipal level. We propose a normative and analytical framework for transferring co-production into natural hazard research by presenting a matrix identifying four contexts within which co-production may unfold. The matrix is based on two axes, which distinguish between innovation and its absence in science and policy domains. We examine several examples of co-production, such as the water–soil integrated approach to risk management or the implementation of hazard/risk assessment. The results highlight that the insulation of science from the institutional context within which knowledge is produced and used is a very problematic issue. This often hinders the implementation of desirable policies and undermines the effectiveness of interventions. Moreover, innovation in science and policy does not automatically result in successful solutions for landslide risk management. Finally, results confirm the utility of co-production but also highlight methodological challenges associated with the introduction of this new conceptual paradigm into the well-structured communities of scientists and policy-makers.     

Earthquake risk assessment for the building inventory of Muscat,Sultanate of Oman

Little Andaman, the fourth largest island in the Andaman group of islands of India, was severely affected by the December 26, 2004, Indian Ocean tsunami generated by massive earthquake of moment magnitude 9.3 Mw which devastated the Andaman and Nicobar group of islands causing heavy damage to life and property. Due to hostile terrain conditions not much information was available on the extent of inundation and run-up along the island except for Hut Bay region. In order to study the vulnerability of the island to tsunami hazard, the inundation in the island due to the 2004 tsunami was studied using TUNAMI N2 numerical model and ENVISAT ASAR datasets. The extent of inundation derived from the SAR imagery was compared using the RTK-GPS field survey points collected in the Hut Bay regions immediately after the 2004 tsunami. The extent of inundation obtained from SAR images for the entire island was compared with inundation obtained from model. It was observed that the inundation obtained from the model matched well with inundation extent from SAR imagery for nearshore regions, while for low-lying areas and creeks large deviations were observed. In the absence of field datasets, the inundation derived from SAR imagery would be effective in providing ground data to validate the numerical models which can then be run for multiple scenarios for disaster mitigation and planning operation in areas that have hostile terrain conditions.     

城市饮用水源地水环境健康风险评价及风险管理

环境健康风险评价是环境科学的一个新兴研究领域,在简要介绍水环境健康风险评价基本方法的基础上,建立了健康风险评价模式,并根据深圳市主要饮用水源地水质监测资料,进行分析与评价。研究结果表明:(1)深圳市7个主要水库由基因毒物质所产生的健康风险的数量级为1 0-5~1 0-4,而由躯体毒物质所产生的健康风险的数量级为1 0-11~1 0-10,因此,基因毒物质为优先控制污染物;(2)对于Cr、As、Cd这三种基因毒物质,这7个水库的优先控制污染物是Cr;(3)对于躯体毒物质,所有水库的优先控制污染物是氨;(4)饮用水源各类污染物所致健康危害的个人年总风险小于国际辐射防护委员会(ICRP)推荐的最大可接受值,但超过瑞典环保局、荷兰建设和环境部推荐的最大可接受水平。目前环境健康风险评价还没有包括在常规环境评价工作中,建议在今后的评价工作中应该逐步开展这方面的工作,以提高供水安全。     

Landslide risk assessment and management: an overview

Landslides can result in enormous casualties and huge economic losses in mountainous regions. In order to mitigate landslide hazard effectively, new methodologies are required to develop a better understanding of landslide hazard and to make rational decisions on the allocation of funds for management of landslide risk. Recent advances in risk analysis and risk assessment are beginning to provide systematic and rigorous processes to enhance slope management. In recent years, risk analysis and assessment has become an important tool in addressing uncertainty inherent in landslide hazards.This article reviews recent advances in landslide risk assessment and management, and discusses the applicability of a variety of approaches to assessing landslide risk. Firstly, a framework for landslide risk assessment and management by which landslide risk can be reduced is proposed. This is followed by a critical review of the current state of research on assessing the probability of landsliding, runout behavior, and vulnerability. Effective management strategies for reducing economic and social losses due to landslides are described. Problems in landslide risk assessment and management are also examined.     

考虑时间效应的滑坡风险评估和管理

提出了考虑时间效应的滑坡风险评估和管理方法。以香港地区近20年的16 000个切破的观测资料为基础,从统计学的角度提出了边坡的时变可靠性分析方法。推导了新建边坡在未来服役时间内的年失效概率的计算公式,并对现役边坡在未来服役时间内的年失效概率进行了预测。确定了基于年死亡人数的滑坡风险接受准则,并分析了基于滑坡时变风险的边坡加固时间。结果表明,考虑时间效应的滑坡风险评估和管理方法能够更加真实地反映滑坡随时间变化的特性。新建边坡的年失效概率随边坡服役时间逐渐增大,尤其是当边坡服役超过10年时,每年发生滑坡的概率急剧增大。现役边坡的年失效概率基本与继续服役时间呈线形关系。此外,香港斜坡维修指南规定的边坡加固时间能够有效地将滑坡风险降低到ALARP区或可接受的风险区。     

A method for na-tech risk assessment as supporting tool for land use planning mitigation strategies

Hazardous industrial sites have always represented a threat for the community often provoking major accidents overcoming the boundaries of the plants and affecting the surrounding urban areas. If the industrial sites are located in natural hazard-prone areas, technological accidents may be triggered by natural events, generating so-called na-tech events which may modify and increase the impact and the overall damage in the areas around them. Nevertheless, natural and technological hazards are still treated as two separate issues, and up to now the methods for na-tech risk assessment have been developed mainly for specific natural hazards, generally restricted to some plant typologies and to the area of the plant itself. Based on a review of the current na-tech literature, this article illustrates a risk assessment method as a supporting tool for land use planning strategies aimed at reducing na-tech risk in urban areas. More specifically, a multi attribute decision-making method, combined with fuzzy techniques, has been developed. The method allows planners to take into account, according to different territorial units, all the individual na-tech risk factors, measured through both quantitative and qualitative parameters, while providing them with a na-tech risk index, useful to rank the territorial units and to single out the priority intervention areas. The method is designed to process information generally available about hazardous plants (safety reports), natural hazards (hazard maps) and features of urban systems mainly influencing their exposure and vulnerability to na-tech events (common statistical territorial data). Furthermore, the method implemented into a GIS framework should easily provide planners with comparable maps to figure out the hazard factors and the main territorial features influencing the exposure and vulnerability of urban systems to na-tech events. The method has been tested on a middle-sized Municipality in the Campania Region, identified as 2nd class seismic zone, according to the Ordinance 3274/2003, in which a LPG storage plant, classified as a plant with major accident potential by the Seveso II Directive (art. 9), is located just within the city core.     

Groundwater contamination: risk management and assessment for landfills in Mar del Plata, Argentina

 This study presents a program for risk management in the contamination of groundwater resulting from leachate in landfills at Mar del Plata (Argentina). The program includes prediction, prevention, monitory observation and mitigation as actions that must be taken prior to, during, and after contamination occurs. This routine aids in the identification of weak points and failures of the program for those who are in charge of making decisions, and will allow better use of limited financial and technical resources based on planning, thus minimizing disconnected determinations. Results of the prediction stage were confirmed through monitoring. The presence of a plume of contamination more than 100 m from the landfill was shown, thus proving that implementation of a monitoring plan to follow the development of the contaminated plume must be implemented, particularly in populated areas which depend on residential wells for their water supply. Received: 8 May 2000 · Accepted: 14 August 2000     

国际滑坡风险评估与管理指南研究综述

总结了国际主流滑坡风险评估与管理技术指南的进展和现状,综述了滑坡风险管理范畴中包含的理论和技术框架,研究精度和层次,滑坡编录、易发性、危险性和风险分区研究的技术方法;指出了滑坡风险分区成果的误差来源和可靠性验证方法;基于滑坡风险分区的研究成果,提出了土地利用规划中风险控制措施的建议。总结了主流国家和地区滑坡风险管理的发展历程和经验,结合中国地质灾害防灾减灾的现状,强调了出版滑坡风险评估与管理指南的紧迫性,并展望了滑坡等突发地质灾害风险评估与管理的发展前景。     

Earthquake risk and slope stability in Jerusalem

Jerusalem is located 25 km from the active Dead Sea fault, which is a part of the Dead Sea Rift System Despite its proximity to the fault, the city has escaped past seismic events relatively undamaged. In contrast to the rest of the city, the Mount of Olives did suffer damage as a result of landslides, as evidenced by a large landslide scarp found in the western slope The unstable slopes in Jerusalem are located on soft Senonian chalk. In the past, these areas were left undeveloped and as a result, damage from earthquakes was relatively slight However, during the past 15 years, with the expansion of Jerusalem, construction has been taking place on unstable slopes as well This could result in heavy damage during future earthquakes A map showing the areas of highest risk is presented. It is recommended that the unstable slopes be reserved as green areas.     

Earthquake risk and its mitigation in Istanbul

Physical and societal vulnerability to earthquakes and expected physical, social, economic, and industrial losses in Istanbul are outlined. This risk quantification has served as the basis for the Earthquake Masterplan. Risk-mitigation activity that was, and is, being conducted by several agencies and in different context and sectors are elaborated.