Flood risk management,an approach to managing cross-border hazards

River flooding is a serious hazard in the UK with interest driven by recent widespread events. This paper reviews different approaches to flood risk management and the borders (physical, conceptual and organisational) that are involved. The paper showcases a multi-method approach to negotiating flood risk management interventions. We address three fundamental issues around flood risk management: differences and similarities between a variety of approaches; how different approaches work across borders between professionals, lay people, organisations and between different planning regimes; and, whether the science evidence base is adequate to support different types of flood risk management. We explore these issues through a case study on the River Tweed using Q methodology, community mapping and focus groups, participatory GIS, and interviews, which enabled co-production of knowledge around possible interventions to manage flooding. Our research demonstrated that excellent networks of practice exist to make decisions about flood risk management in the Scottish–English borders. Physical and organisational borders were continually traversed in practice. There was an overwhelming desire from professional flood managers and local communities for an alternative to simply structural methods of flood management. People were keen to make use of the ability of catchments to store water, even if land needed to be sacrificed to do so. There was no difference in the desire to embrace natural flood management approaches between people with different roles in flood management, expertise, training or based in different locations. Thus conceptual borders were also crossed effectively in practice.     

造山带火山岩浆作用

造山带火山岩石学研究的主要目的在于重溯造山带的构造-岩浆演化历史.纵观我国以至全球的大陆造山带形成-演化历史,一个造山带往往经历了古大陆裂解、洋陆转换、陆块拼合-碰撞、陆内伸展-盆山耦合和新构造隆升(陆内造山)等众多不同的构造演化阶段,这些不同的构造演化阶段和不同的构造环境均有特定火山岩浆作用与之相伴.因此,我们可以根据造山带形成-演化不同阶段火山岩浆作用的特点来重溯造山带的构造-岩浆演化历史,并进而从更大尺度上加以对比,探索全球动力学乃至比较行星动力学等重大科学问题.本文对造山带火山岩石学研究中的一些重要问题进行了讨论和评述,这些问题包括有:板块内部火山岩浆活动、离散板块边界上的火山岩浆活动、会聚板块边缘的火山岩浆活动.     

Modelling risk and risking models: The diffusive boundary between science and policy in volcanic risk management

This article examines the science–policy interface in volcanic risk assessment. It analyses empirical data from research on Montserrat, where new volcanic risk assessment methodologies were pioneered. We discuss the ways in which these methods contributed towards the ordering of scientific advice in its geographical context, and we provide examples of the complex and overlapping topologies that are assembled in a volcanic eruption. In this case, the science–policy interface can be conceptualised as diffusive: both science and policy contain multiple overlapping networks of actors, objects and ideas that interact with one another through flows of responsibilities, attribution, identity and interpretation. Volcanic risk management involves negotiation of conceptual, relational and physical boundaries, and as a result requires the use of qualitative and quantitative methods across human and physical geography.     

Environmental geochemistry in disaster response and planning

Large volumes of solid, gaseous, or liquid materials that are of potential concern from an environmental or public health perspective are commonly produced by natural or anthropogenic disasters, such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, urban fires, landslides, hurricanes, tsunamis, floods, windstorms, industrial spills, and terrorist attacks. Geochemical processes play key roles in the environmental and health impacts of these materials. Yet, process-focused environmental geochemistry expertise and characterization methods are often underutilized in disaster response and planning. In part, the scientific studies needed for detailed process characterization are difficult to plan and implement while the events are still underway, and delayed responses can miss key transient processes and byproducts. Further, emergency responders are focused primarily on identifying the types, amounts, and health hazards of contaminants produced by the event, thus the responders do not have the time or the need to collect the full range of appropriate geological, geochemical, microbiological and other data necessary to understand the full range of physical and chemical processes that influence contamination from these extreme events. A thorough characterization and understanding of geochemical and environmental processes that occur during specific disasters can be used to better anticipate effects of and plan for similar future disasters. A broad spectrum of environmental geochemistry capabilities can be applied to help emergency response authorities and the public health community in their initial hazardous materials assessments immediately following disasters.     

造山带火山岩研究

造山带火山岩石学研究的主要目的在于重溯造山带的构造－岩浆演化历史。纵观我国以至全球的大陆造山带形成、演化历史，一个造山带往往经历了古大陆裂解、洋陆转换、陆块拼合－碰撞、陆内伸展－盆山耦合和新构造隆升（陆内造山）等众多不同的构造演化阶段，这些不同的构造演化阶段和不同的构造环境均有特定火山岩浆作用与这相伴。因此，可以根据造山带形成、演化不同阶段火山岩浆作用的特点来重溯造山带的构造－岩浆演化历史，进而从更大尺度上加以对比，探索全球动力学乃至比较行星动力学等重大科学问题。本文对造山带火山岩石学研究中的一些重要问题进行了讨论和评述，这些问题包括：板块内部火山岩浆活动、离散板块边界上的火山岩浆活动、会聚板块边缘的火山岩浆活动。     

Mapping the vulnerability for evacuation of the Campi Flegrei territorial system in case of a volcanic unrest

Over the past few decades, intense urban expansion has occurred over the Campi Flegrei territorial system without considering the volcanic risk. In this active volcanic area, where a short period evacuation could be necessary, the emergency management cannot be based solely on hazard-related information. The territorial and social features must also be considered. In this framework, the main purpose of this research is to point out the seriousness of the present setting of the Campi Flegrei territorial system in case an evacuation is necessary. Following the concept of regional evacuation, the zone to be involved in emergency planning was identified as the whole of the area threatened by the volcanic events of the past 10?ka. Inside this area the spatial relation between the resident distribution and the outflows of roads, railway stations and harbours, to facilitate evacuation, was investigated. A spatial relational GIS-based procedure was used to draw the territorial system vulnerability map, depicting the zones with different capabilities to support the evacuation of residents in case of volcanic activity. Based on the concept that people could leave the dangerous area by the means of transport supplied by Civil Protection, and using the threshold value of over-crowding of 0.70 people/m², we identified the collection areas for residents to be immediately evacuated in case of volcanic unrest, and five macrozones displaying different capabilities to cope with an emergency phase.     

A landslide database for Nicaragua: a tool for landslide-hazard management

A digital landslide database has been created for Nicaragua to provide the scientific community and national authorities with a tool for landslide-hazard assessment, emergency management, land-use planning, development of early warning systems, and the implementation of public and private policies. The Instituto Nicaragüense de Estudios Territoriales (Nicaraguan Geosciences Institute, INETER) began to compile the database in a digital format in 2003 as part of a comprehensive geographical information system for all types of geohazards. Landslide data have been obtained from a variety of sources including newspapers, technical reports, and landslide inventory maps. Inventory maps are largely based on fieldwork and aerial-photo analyses conducted by foreign development agencies in collaboration with INETER and other Nicaraguan institutions. This paper presents the sources of landslide information, introduces the database, and presents the first analyses of the data at national and regional scales. The database currently contains spatial information for about 17,000 landslides that occurred in mountainous and volcanic terrains. Information is mainly recorded for the period 1826–2003, with a large number of events that occurred during the disastrous Hurricane Mitch in October 1998. The oldest historical event is dated at 1570, some events are recorded as prehistorical, and other events have unknown dates of occurrence. Debris flows have been the most common types of landslides, both in volcanic and nonvolcanic areas, but other types, including rockfalls and slides, have also been identified. Intense and prolonged rainfall, often associated with tropical cyclones, and seismic and volcanic activity represent the most important landslide triggers. At a regional scale, the influence of topographic (elevation, slope angle, slope aspect) and lithologic parameters on the occurrence of landslides was analyzed. The development of the database allowed us to define the state of knowledge on landslide processes in the Nicaragua and to provide a preliminary identification of areas affected by landslides.     

Semi-automated regional classification of the style of activity of slow rock-slope deformations using PS InSAR and SqueeSAR velocity data

Large slow rock-slope deformations, including deep-seated gravitational slope deformations and large landslides, are widespread in alpine environments. They develop over thousands of years by progressive failure, resulting in slow movements that impact infrastructures and can eventually evolve into catastrophic rockslides. A robust characterization of their style of activity is thus required in a risk management perspective. We combine an original inventory of slow rock-slope deformations with different PS-InSAR and SqueeSAR datasets to develop a novel, semi-automated approach to characterize and classify 208 slow rock-slope deformations in Lombardia (Italian Central Alps) based on their displacement rate, kinematics, heterogeneity and morphometric expression. Through a peak analysis of displacement rate distributions, we characterize the segmentation of mapped landslides and highlight the occurrence of nested sectors with differential activity and displacement rates. Combining 2D decomposition of InSAR velocity vectors and machine learning classification, we develop an automatic approach to characterize the kinematics of each landslide. Then, we sequentially combine principal component and K-medoids cluster analyses to identify groups of slow rock-slope deformations with consistent styles of activity. Our methodology is readily applicable to different landslide datasets and provides an objective and cost-effective support to land planning and the prioritization of local-scale studies aimed at granting safety and infrastructure integrity.

     

岩浆作用与青藏高原演化

        青藏高原是我国岩浆岩最发育的地区之一,出露着从元古宇到新生代各个地质时期多种类型的火山岩与侵入岩,面 积达30万km2左右,占全区面积的10％以上。这些岩浆岩在青藏大陆动力学研究中有着重要的作用,既是探测深部的“探 针”和“窗口”,又是构造演化的记录,并形成重要的构造-岩浆-成矿带。本文拟通过岩浆作用和岩浆岩来研究青藏高原 演化的一些科学问题。（1）印度-亚洲大陆碰撞时限：印度-亚洲大陆碰撞时限是青藏高原形成演化中一个非常重要的基础 问题,也是国际上争论的一个热点,到目前为止,分歧仍然很大,从主张早于70 Ma 到34 Ma都有。本文根据来自我国西藏 南部延伸1500 km以上的主碰撞带的综合证据提出,印度-亚洲大陆碰撞开始的时间为70/65 Ma,完成的时间在40 Ma左右, 这个时期称为同碰撞期,40 Ma之后转入后碰撞期。（2）同碰撞阶段的壳-幔交换-底侵与岩浆混合作用: 南冈底斯带同碰撞 花岗岩中有着丰富的岩浆底侵作用与岩浆混合作用证据。这两种作用,是通过岩浆作用实现壳－幔间物质和能量的交换, 是两种不同而又密切相关的大陆地壳生长方式。（3） 青藏巨厚地壳的成因: 双倍于正常厚度的巨厚地壳,是青藏高原最显著 的特点之一,世界瞩目。通过对同碰撞与后碰撞火成岩的研究提出“两类地壳、两种机制”的认识,即新生地壳与再循环 地壳;构造挤压增厚机制与地幔物质注入增厚机制。（4）青藏岩石圈的组成、结构与演化：高原岩石圈地幔存在三种地球 化学端元,存在三种岩石圈结构类型,已在青藏高原多处发现地幔与下地壳岩石的地表露头及火成岩所携带的深源岩石包 体。（5）青藏高原深部物质的可能流动：青藏高原新生代碰撞-后碰撞火成活动有规律的时空迁移,以及深部地球物理探 测,都暗示碰撞引起壳幔深部物质的横向流动     

山东烟台门楼水库火山岩剖面特征及地学意义

在山东省地质遗迹调查研究中,首次在烟台门楼水库东侧马山发现一处典型的火山岩侵入剖面。为进一步准确评价剖面地学意义,在剖面中采取砂样1件及玄武岩样品3件,分别利用ESR法和K-Ar法进行精确测年。结果表明:胶东地区为地壳长期稳定或微微隆起的地区,可作为我国第三地势阶梯中地壳稳定或相对隆升区的一个代表;火山岩剖面为中新世晚期产物,其火山活动大致可分为三期:第一期为火山凝灰岩与火山集块岩喷发时期,发生在7.19 Ma左右,第二期为玄武岩的多期次溢流时期发生在6.75 Ma左右,第三期为小型断裂活动与玄武岩脉的侵入时期,发生在5.32 Ma左右,但其规模明显弱于前两期。门楼水库火山岩剖面是我国少有的火山岩侵入剖面,属典型地质遗迹资源,具有较高的科研与保护价值。     

西昆仑阿什库勒火山群地质特征和活动分期

阿什库勒火山群作为青藏高原内最新期的北部昆仑火山群的典型代表,长期以来一直受到国内外地学界的广泛关注。我们通过对阿什库勒盆地火山区的野外地质地貌考察,研究了阿什库勒盆地内第四纪火山活动历史,完成了阿什库勒火山群重要火山锥体的1∶2000火山机构图。同时,对系统采集于不同火山机构和部位的20个火山岩样品进行了系列Ar-Ar同位素年代测试分析,获得了翔实的研究区不同火山岩石单元的绝对年龄数据。结合野外地质地貌考察结果,讨论了阿什库勒盆地的火山活动的第四纪时期活动历史,并将主要活动时期进一步划分为早更新世早期、早更新世中期、中更新世早期、中更新世晚期、晚更新世期和全新世期六期,取得了与前人有关该研究区火山活动历史和活动期次类似的划分方案,并补充了新的年代学证据。研究成果弥补了藏北高原西部由于恶劣工作环境而造成的第四纪火山学研究的不足。     

青藏高原东缘新构造与活动构造研究新进展及展望

新构造运动与活动构造对人类的出现、演化、生存和发展都产生着深刻影响。近年来在青藏高原东缘部署开展的活动断裂调查与活动构造体系研究、川滇地块旋扭变形的古地磁学研究、西秦岭地区新构造与活动构造研究、滇西盆谷区的新构造幕划分、腾冲火山活动特征及其新构造背景调查等都取得了一系列重要进展与成果。这些成果对于深入认识和理解青藏高原东部地区现今地壳变形特征及其动力学机制和探索活动构造体系控震作用都具有重要意义,并可为该区的重大工程规划建设与国土规划利用的科学决策和城镇化发展等提供重要的地质依据。     

青藏高原东缘新构造与活动构造研究新进展及展望

新构造运动与活动构造对人类的出现、演化、生存和发展都产生着深刻影响。近年来在青藏高原东缘部署开展的活动断裂调查与活动构造体系研究、川滇地块旋扭变形的古地磁学研究、西秦岭地区新构造与活动构造研究、滇西盆谷区的新构造幕划分、腾冲火山活动特征及其新构造背景调查等都取得了一系列重要进展与成果。这些成果对于深入认识和理解青藏高原东部地区现今地壳变形特征及其动力学机制和探索活动构造体系控震作用都具有重要意义,并可为该区的重大工程规划建设与国土规划利用的科学决策和城镇化发展等提供重要的地质依据。     

Political and scientific uncertainties in volcanic risk management: The yellow alert in Quito in October 1998

Volcanic risk management involves volcanologists, civil authorities and the affected population. The paper reports on one `yellow alert' in Quito in 1998. It describes the scientific context, the political announcement and the decision-making process that preceded, as well as the social perception of the volcanic crisis. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

基于MO的土地利用规划管理信息系统的设计与实现

土地利用规划与管理是保障实行可持续土地利用的重要手段.为了实现土地利用规划编制成果的科学性和可操作性,土地利用数据信息变更动态管理自动化、信息化是必然趋势.目前随着土地利用总体规划修编工作的不断深入,土地利用规划及管理工作作为土地利用管理宏观调控的重要手段也越来越受到重视.本文基于 MO组件和VB开发语言,以抚州市东乡县土地利用基础数据为例,设计和研究支持图文表一体化管理、适应土地利用规划业务管理需要的土地利用规划管理信息系统.     

基于自然灾害风险评价框架的省级地质灾害风险区划方法探讨——以吉林省为例

地质灾害风险区划是地质灾害风险管理与防治的有效手段之一,对于科学防治地质灾害具有重要意义。基于自然灾害风险理论,从致灾因子危险性,承灾体暴露性和脆弱性以及防灾减灾能力(恢复力)等入手,选取评价指标,构建省级地质灾害风险评价模型,对全省地质灾害进行风险区划。该模型在吉林省地质灾害风险区划中应用表明,评价结果合理,与野外调查情况吻合,可以为规划和地质灾害防治等工作提供依据。     

国际科学界跨世纪的重大研究主题——国际全球变化研究实施十年进展与现状

全球变化研究是国际科学界跨世纪的重大研究主题。国际全球变化研究从其组织、计划制定与实施已逐渐形成了一套有机的完整的框架体系，整体推动着全球变化研究的深入开展。文章从国际全球变化的组织框架、计划体系和主要研究环节等主要方面概述了国际全球变化研究实施十年后的进展与现状，特别是分析概括了全球变化研究的主要环节——观测研究、过程研究、预测研究、数据与信息管理研究、影响（后果）分析研究、对策研究与政策评估研究，简明概述了其研究现状与进展     

Risk reduction at the ��Last-Mile��: an attempt to turn science into action by the example of Padang, Indonesia

More than ever before, the last decade revealed the immense vulnerability of the world??s cities to natural hazards. Neither the tsunami in the Indian Ocean in 2004, the hurricane Katrina in 2005, the cyclone Nargis in 2008 nor the earthquakes in Sichuan in 2008 or in Haiti 2010 found the people, the city administrations or the national or international organizations well prepared in the advent of anticipated but to a large extent disregarded natural disasters. It is evident that the lack of tailor-made disaster management plans and standard operational procedures are often the crucial point in proper risk reduction approaches. This study presents an approach to transfer knowledge of an extensive multidisciplinary scientific study on risk identification into recommendations for risk reduction strategies. The study has been conducted by means of a combination of experts from different scientific communities coming from civil and coastal engineering, remote sensing, social sciences, evacuation modelling and capacity development. The paper presents the results of this research approach and interweaves key findings with recent experiences from an eyewitness on a previous hazard event. Thus, necessary tsunami hazard and vulnerability information as well as valuable insights into preparedness activities have been derived for initiating updated infrastructural designs and practical recommendations for emergency management as well as strategic spatial planning activities at the local scale. The approach was applied in the context of tsunami early warning and evacuation planning in the coastal city of Padang, Western Sumatra, Republic of Indonesia.     

项目管理理论在土地一级开发项目中的应用——目标分析和目标系统设计

土地一级开发是国内很多大中城市进行城市运营的重要方式,项目管理的理论方法已广泛应用于基建、开发、科研等项目运作。从项目管理的角度对该项活动的实施过程加以分析,将目标管理的方法应用其中,进行充分的目标分析和目标系统设计,可以使土地一级开发的运作更加科学化、系统化。