Relationship between element-level and contact-level parameters of micromechanical and upscaled plasticity models for granular soils

Acta Geotechnica - The models for stress–strain behavior of granular soils can be generally categorized into two approaches: the conventional plasticity approach and the micromechanics-based...     

Bootstrapped models for intrinsic random functions

Use of intrinsic random function stochastic models as a basis for estimation in geostatistical work requires the identification of the generalized covariance function of the underlying process. The fact that this function has to be estimated from data introduces an additional source of error into predictions based on the model. This paper develops the sample reuse procedure called the bootstrap in the context of intrinsic random functions to obtain realistic estimates of these errors. Simulation results support the conclusion that bootstrap distributions of functionals of the process, as well as their kriging variance, provide a reasonable picture of variability introduced by imperfect estimation of the generalized covariance function.This paper was presented at Emerging Concepts, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.     

Reliability of volumetric geological structural models

The results of theoretical analysis of the data commonly used for development of volumetric geological structural models, and the uncertainties that arise interpreting these data, are discussed. Such uncertainties are caused by restricted technical capabilities of structural analysis, necessity in model assumptions, and subjective experience of interpreter. To minimize the uncertainties introduced by the interpreter in the presentation of 3D structure of geological models, a formalized procedure based on methodology of expert judgment has been elaborated. This procedure comprises several stages: compilation of the database of local structural intersections, integration of all structural elements in the block volume, and comparison of alternative models suggested by several interpreters for the given state of knowledge on the studied block. The compilation of the database and integration of intersections and structural elements is accompanied by an estimation of the reliability of decisions made, using specially prepared formal scales. The stages may be cyclically repeated until the knowledge on the block will achieve a degree, which rules out alternative models on the accepted scale.     

A probabilistic parametrization for geological uncertainty estimation using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)

In the past years, many applications of history-matching methods in general and ensemble Kalman filter in particular have been proposed, especially in order to estimate fields that provide uncertainty in the stochastic process defined by the dynamical system of hydrocarbon recovery. Such fields can be permeability fields or porosity fields, but can also fields defined by the rock type (facies fields). The estimation of the boundaries of the geologic facies with ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was made, in different papers, with the aid of Gaussian random fields, which were truncated using various schemes and introduced in a history-matching process. In this paper, we estimate, in the frame of the EnKF process, the locations of three facies types that occur into a reservoir domain, with the property that each two could have a contact. The geological simulation model is a form of the general truncated plurigaussian method. The difference with other approaches consists in how the truncation scheme is introduced and in the observation operator of the facies types at the well locations. The projection from the continuous space of the Gaussian fields into the discrete space of the facies fields is realized through in an intermediary space (space with probabilities). This space connects the observation operator of the facies types at the well locations with the geological simulation model. We will test the model using a 2D reservoir which is connected with the EnKF method as a data assimilation technique. We will use different geostatistical properties for the Gaussian fields and different levels of the uncertainty introduced in the model parameters and also in the construction of the Gaussian fields.     

Finite element models for use in mechanics including geological engineering

A number of finite element (FE) models have been developed, starting with a purely magnetic one. The magnetic model was verified against analytical solutions and the commercial FE-programme ANSYS. The magnetic model was then coupled to the wave-equation, resulting in a model governing linear magnetostriction. In the magnetostrictive model a property of two degrees of freedom, that is, displacements, was coupled to a property of one degree of freedom, that is, magnetic potential. To make this possible, non-quadratic coupling matrices had to be developed. This linear model was then verified against analytical solutions, with a good conceptual agreement. In the next step the still linear system of equations was time-propagated, using the Newmark method. This model was verified by comparing the differential step-response of the system calculated with the time propagation method, to the frequency function of the system, calculated with the harmonic model. Further, non-linear and non-linear transient models were developed and discussed. The non-linear transient model was developed for a situation where a Terfenol rod was assumed to collide periodically with a rigid wall, thus indicating a tool for analysing a Terfenol based resonant system, which could be used, for example, for ultrasonic cutting of hard and brittle materials and also for rock-blasting.     

Fast linearized forecasts for subsurface flow data assimilation with ensemble Kalman filter

Ensemble methods present a practical framework for parameter estimation, performance prediction, and uncertainty quantification in subsurface flow and transport modeling. In particular, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has received significant attention for its promising performance in calibrating heterogeneous subsurface flow models. Since an ensemble of model realizations is used to compute the statistical moments needed to perform the EnKF updates, large ensemble sizes are needed to provide accurate updates and uncertainty assessment. However, for realistic problems that involve large-scale models with computationally demanding flow simulation runs, the EnKF implementation is limited to small-sized ensembles. As a result, spurious numerical correlations can develop and lead to inaccurate EnKF updates, which tend to underestimate or even eliminate the ensemble spread. Ad hoc practical remedies, such as localization, local analysis, and covariance inflation schemes, have been developed and applied to reduce the effect of sampling errors due to small ensemble sizes. In this paper, a fast linear approximate forecast method is proposed as an alternative approach to enable the use of large ensemble sizes in operational settings to obtain more improved sample statistics and EnKF updates. The proposed method first clusters a large number of initial geologic model realizations into a small number of groups. A representative member from each group is used to run a full forward flow simulation. The flow predictions for the remaining realizations in each group are approximated by a linearization around the full simulation results of the representative model (centroid) of the respective cluster. The linearization can be performed using either adjoint-based or ensemble-based gradients. Results from several numerical experiments with two-phase and three-phase flow systems in this paper suggest that the proposed method can be applied to improve the EnKF performance in large-scale problems where the number of full simulation is constrained.     

Bayesian geological and geophysical data fusion for the construction and uncertainty quantification of 3D geological models

Traditional approaches to develop 3D geological models employ a mix of quantitative and qualitative scientific techniques,which do not fully provide quantification of uncertainty in the constructed models and fail to optimally weight geological field observations against constraints from geophysical data.Here,using the Bayesian Obsidian software package,we develop a methodology to fuse lithostratigraphic field observations with aeromagnetic and gravity data to build a 3D model in a small(13.5 km×13.5 km)region of the Gascoyne Province,Western Australia.Our approach is validated by comparing 3D model results to independently-constrained geological maps and cross-sections produced by the Geological Survey of Western Australia.By fusing geological field data with aeromagnetic and gravity surveys,we show that 89%of the modelled region has>95%certainty for a particular geological unit for the given model and data.The boundaries between geological units are characterized by narrow regions with<95%certainty,which are typically 400-1000 m wide at the Earth's surface and 500-2000 m wide at depth.Beyond~4 km depth,the model requires geophysical survey data with longer wavelengths(e.g.,active seismic)to constrain the deeper subsurface.Although Obsidian was originally built for sedimentary basin problems,there is reasonable applicability to deformed terranes such as the Gascoyne Province.Ultimately,modification of the Bayesian engine to incorporate structural data will aid in developing more robust 3D models.Nevertheless,our results show that surface geological observations fused with geophysical survey data can yield reasonable 3D geological models with narrow uncertainty regions at the surface and shallow subsurface,which will be especially valuable for mineral exploration and the development of 3D geological models under cover.     

浅谈城市地质调查与地质灾害治理在城市建设中的作用

由于城市规模的进一步扩大,基本建设的项目不断增加,在建设过程中发生的地质灾害也越来越多。从地质因素在城市建设中的表征入手,论述了开展城市地质灾害调查与治理的必要性及可操作性。依据江苏各大城市的地质构造特点及存在的地质灾害隐患,提出了对城市地质灾害调查与治理的设想。     

过渡型流体转换对洪水型重力流沉积研究的启示及地质意义

洪水型重力流是重力流沉积学的研究热点,以往研究认为洪水型重力流具有紊流支撑的流体性质,对于其流体性质转化及其沉积记录的识别不够深入。近年研究揭示重力流沉积过程中可形成多种过渡型流体,具有特殊流体转换机制和沉积特征。通过调研国内外最新文献,系统介绍了过渡型流体基本特征、沉积机制方面的研究进展,并讨论了其对洪水型重力流沉积研究的启示及地质意义。研究结果表明：在少量黏土矿物影响下,沉积物重力流流体的性质即可由紊流向层流转化,形成特殊的过渡型流体。转化过程主要取决于黏土矿物含量和类型控制的流体内聚力和流速控制的紊流应力二者之间的相互作用。过渡型流体可以产生大型流水沙纹(large current ripple)、砂质纹层—泥质纹层间互形成的低幅度沙波(low amplitude bed wave)等独特的底床类型。尽管实验研究揭示了过渡型流体可能形成的沉积底床特征,针对洪水型重力流沉积记录中过渡型流体的解释仍十分缺乏,尤其是过渡型流体转换机制及其沉积响应仍亟待深入探索。过渡型流体的沉积底形是研究洪水型重力流沉积动力机制的重要载体,可为深入理解洪水型重力流沉积过程提供新视角,同时可能具有更广泛的...     

A perturbation stochastic finite-element method for groundwater flow models based on an undetermined-coefficients approach

A new perturbation technique and finite-element method, which incorporates an undetermined-coefficients approach, is proposed to conduct stochastic simulation for problems of groundwater flow. Formulas of the mean value and variance of groundwater head are derived to exclude the process of computing the first and second-order derivatives of groundwater head with respect to stochastic variables (coefficient of transmissibility, storage coefficient, etc.) in the calculation process of common finite element methods. For ordinary stochastic groundwater problems, the statistical properties of groundwater head can be easily obtained by using the proposed method, which is especially efficient for the stochastic problems that have fewer input stochastic variables. A stochastic numerical simulation of a two-dimensional confined-groundwater flow problem has been conducted to validate effectiveness and determine the limitations of the proposed method. The results illustrate that the accuracy and efficiency of the method proposed are satisfactory, and that the computing time is shorter when there is a small number of input stochastic variables.     

过渡型流体转换对洪水型重力流沉积研究的启示及地质意义

洪水型重力流是重力流沉积学的研究热点,以往研究认为洪水型重力流具有紊流支撑的流体性质,对于其流体性质转化及其沉积记录的识别不够深入。近年研究揭示重力流沉积过程中可形成多种过渡型流体,具有特殊流体转换机制和沉积特征。通过调研国内外最新文献,系统介绍了过渡型流体基本特征、沉积机制方面的研究进展,并讨论了其对洪水型重力流沉积研究的启示及地质意义。研究结果表明：在少量黏土矿物影响下,沉积物重力流流体的性质即可由紊流向层流转化,形成特殊的过渡型流体。转化过程主要取决于黏土矿物含量和类型控制的流体内聚力和流速控制的紊流应力二者之间的相互作用。过渡型流体可以产生大型流水沙纹（large current ripple）、砂质纹层—泥质纹层间互形成的低幅度沙波（low amplitude bed wave）等独特的底床类型。尽管实验研究揭示了过渡型流体可能形成的沉积底床特征,针对洪水型重力流沉积记录中过渡型流体的解释仍十分缺乏,尤其是过渡型流体转换机制及其沉积响应仍亟待深入探索。过渡型流体的沉积底形是研究洪水型重力流沉积动力机制的重要载体,可为深入理解洪水型重力流沉积过程提供新视角,同时可能具有更广泛的沉积学研究价值。     

Comparative performance of eight ensemble learning approaches for the development of models of slope stability prediction

Acta Geotechnica - Slope engineering is a complex nonlinear system. It is difficult to respond with a high level of precision and efficiency requirements for stability assessment using conventional...     

Reduced order models for many-query subsurface flow applications

Inverse modeling involves repeated evaluations of forward models, which can be computationally prohibitive for large numerical models. To reduce the overall computational burden of these simulations, we study the use of reduced order models (ROMs) as numerical surrogates. These ROMs usually involve using solutions to high-fidelity models at different sample points within the parameter space to construct an approximate solution at any point within the parameter space. This paper examines an input–output relational approach based on Gaussian process regression (GPR). We show that these ROMs are more accurate than the linear lookup tables with the same number of high-fidelity simulations. We describe an adaptive sampling procedure that automatically selects optimal sample points and demonstrate the use of GPR to a smooth response surface and a response surface with abrupt changes. We also describe how GPR can be used to construct ROMs for models with heterogeneous material properties. Finally, we demonstrate how the use of a GPR-based ROM in two many-query applications—uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis—significantly reduces the total computational effort.     

不同破坏准则下水合物沉积物的统计损伤模型

利用连续介质损伤力学理论与概率统计方法,假设水合物沉积物微元强度服从Weibull分布,在现有室内三轴和直剪试验数据的基础上,考虑水合物饱和度的影响,分别建立了基于修正Mohr-Coulomb强度准则和修正Lade-Duncan强度准则的水合物沉积物统计损伤本构模型,并将理论模型预测结果与室内试验进行对比,验证了模型的有效性。结果显示：基于Lade-Duncan强度准则的损伤本构模型能够较准确地反映水合物沉积物峰前的应力?应变规律,而基于修正Mohr-Coulomb强度准则的损伤本构模型则对于模拟峰后的应变软化特征有较好的适用性。对于在低有效围压、不同水合物饱和度条件下的水合物沉积物,基于修正Mohr-Coulomb强度准则的损伤本构模型的模拟精确性要优于基于修正Lade-Duncan准则的损伤模型;而在同一饱和度、不同有效围压条件下,基于修正Lade-Duncan强度准则的损伤本构模型的模拟结果则要优于基于修正Mohr-Coulomb强度准则的损伤本构模型。     

地质实体模型的三维交互与分析技术研究

地质实体模型的三维可视化涉及到复杂地质体结构构造和相关地质属性数据的视觉表达与分析,利用科学计算可视化技术来充分、完整、交互式地展示与分析三维地质实体模型一直是三维地质建模领域的研究热点。研发的三维地质建模及可视化系统中可实现通用三维交互操作,包括三维模型的几何变换、三维交互定位与空间属性查询、三维模型的剖切、虚拟钻探、基坑开挖、隧道生成与虚拟漫游等。这些操作采用面向软件的技术,通过对现有的二维设备（如鼠标、键盘等）进行三维仿真,为全方位、多角度的认识和理解地质实体模型提供了强有力的支持。     

Three-dimensional strain analysis in physical models of geological structures

A method is outlined for calculating three-dimensional finite strain in physical models of geological structures containing passive strain markers. This method makes it possible to determine the three-dimensional strain pattern in models of structures that lack any of the types of symmetry (such as that imparted by cylindrical folding) that simplified calculations in previous work. The strain markers in the new method are in the shape of stubby rectangular prisms or cubes. These form a three-dimensional grid or array occupying each of the active layers in a model (e.g., for a simple two-layer gravitationally unstable system, one grid for the overburden layer and one for the buoyant layer). Each of the grids can be described by positions of three families of “strain marker surfaces”, which are contacts between layers of strain markers.

After deformation, the model is serial-sectioned horizontally and the traces of the strain marker surfaces on the sections are digitized. The strain state is calculated at each of several hundred points arranged in a three-dimensional “output grid” extending throughout the mechanically active part of the model. An interpolation procedure is used to estimate the spacing and orientation of the strain marker surfaces in the vicinity of each of the output grid points. The following quantities are determined for each of the three families of strain marker surfaces:

1. (1) the local horizontal orientation of the strain marker surfaces;

2. (2) the local spacing of the surfaces; and

3. (3) the local inclination of the surfaces, calculated from their change in position from the serial section above, to the serial section below, the output grid point.

This information is used to generate a parallelepiped representing the strain marker geometry in the neighbourhood of the output grid point. The edges of the parallelepiped are equivalent to the coefficients of the strain matrix, from which the three principal strain magnitudes and orientations are readily derived.     

Multilevel Monte Carlo methods using ensemble level mixed MsFEM for two-phase flow and transport simulations

In this paper, we propose multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods that use ensemble level mixed multiscale methods in the simulations of multiphase flow and transport. The contribution of this paper is twofold: (1) a design of ensemble level mixed multiscale finite element methods and (2) a novel use of mixed multiscale finite element methods within multilevel Monte Carlo techniques to speed up the computations. The main idea of ensemble level multiscale methods is to construct local multiscale basis functions that can be used for any member of the ensemble. In this paper, we consider two ensemble level mixed multiscale finite element methods: (1) the no-local-solve-online ensemble level method (NLSO); and (2) the local-solve-online ensemble level method (LSO). The first approach was proposed in Aarnes and Efendiev (SIAM J. Sci. Comput. 30(5):2319-2339, 2008) while the second approach is new. Both mixed multiscale methods use a number of snapshots of the permeability media in generating multiscale basis functions. As a result, in the off-line stage, we construct multiple basis functions for each coarse region where basis functions correspond to different realizations. In the no-local-solve-online ensemble level method, one uses the whole set of precomputed basis functions to approximate the solution for an arbitrary realization. In the local-solve-online ensemble level method, one uses the precomputed functions to construct a multiscale basis for a particular realization. With this basis, the solution corresponding to this particular realization is approximated in LSO mixed multiscale finite element method (MsFEM). In both approaches, the accuracy of the method is related to the number of snapshots computed based on different realizations that one uses to precompute a multiscale basis. In this paper, ensemble level multiscale methods are used in multilevel Monte Carlo methods (Giles 2008a, Oper.Res. 56(3):607-617, b). In multilevel Monte Carlo methods, more accurate (and expensive) forward simulations are run with fewer samples, while less accurate (and inexpensive) forward simulations are run with a larger number of samples. Selecting the number of expensive and inexpensive simulations based on the number of coarse degrees of freedom, one can show that MLMC methods can provide better accuracy at the same cost as Monte Carlo (MC) methods. The main objective of the paper is twofold. First, we would like to compare NLSO and LSO mixed MsFEMs. Further, we use both approaches in the context of MLMC to speedup MC calculations.     

地质灾害土地资源易损性评价定量探讨

地质灾害风险评估中对土地资源易损性考虑较少,作为自然资源的主要承灾体,土地资源应和人口和物质财富一样进行定量化研究。在地质灾害评价理论和土地资源价值理论的基础上,探讨了地质灾害风险评估中的土地资源易损性评估的技术方法。易损性的影响因素是灾害强度和土地资源承灾能力,承灾能力的影响因素是土地利用方式、土壤类型等,基于此,建立了数学模型进行易损性计算,核算了土地资源的经济价值、社会价值、生态价值,进行了综合易损性计算和土地资源易损性区划,并在西乡县进行了实例验证。