The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability of moderate-to-large earthquakes in central Japan

The EEPAS (“Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale”) model is a space–time point-process model based on the precursory scale increase (Ψ) phenomenon and associated predictive scaling relations. It has previously been fitted to the New Zealand earthquake catalogue, and applied successfully in quasi-prospective tests on the CNSS catalogue for California for forecasting earthquakes with magnitudes above 5.75 and on the JMA catalogue of Japan for magnitudes above 6.75. Here we test whether the Ψ scaling relations extend to lower magnitudes, by applying EEPAS to depth-restricted subsets of the NIED catalogue of the Kanto area, central Japan, for magnitudes above 4.75. As in previous studies, the EEPAS model is found to be more informative than a quasi-static baseline model based on proximity to past earthquakes, and much more informative than the stationary uniform Poisson model. The information that it provides is illustrated by maps of the earthquake occurrence rate density, covering magnitudes from 5.0 to 8.0, for the central Japan region as at the beginning of year 2004, using the NIED and JMA catalogues to mid-2003.     

2019年5月18日松原M5.1地震构造机制分析

基于区域地震台网的数字化波形资料,使用ISOLA方法对2019年5月18日吉林松原M5.1地震进行矩张量反演,研究地震的震源机制,并且收集了地震序列中M_L2.5以上地震的震源机制解,采用FMSI（focal mechanism stress inversion）方法反演震中区构造应力场。结果显示：松原M5.1地震的矩震级为4.9,矩心深度为6 km,双力偶分量为91.5%,主压应力P轴方位角、倾角分别为76°和3°,主张应力T轴方位角、倾角分别为166°和16°,震源机制解显示典型的构造地震特征;震中区构造应力场理论应力轴σ₁方位角、倾伏角分别为88.0°和0.9°,σ₂方位角、倾伏角分别为178.2°和9.6°,σ₃方位角、倾伏角分别为352.5°和80.4°,这一结果与区域构造应力场一致。推断认为区域构造应力场触发了2019年松原M5.1地震活动,地震震源机制解的北西向节面与震中区附近的第二松花江断裂现今活动性质完全一致,认为第二松花断裂可能是松原M5.1地震的发震断层。     

The present-day active deformation in the central and northern parts of the Gulf of Suez area,Egypt, from earthquake focal mechanism data

The average seismic strain rate is estimated for the seismotectonic zone of the northern/central parts of the Gulf of Suez. The principal strain rate tensor and velocity tensor were derived from a combination of earthquake focal mechanisms data and seismic moment of small-sized earthquakes covering a time span of 13 years (1992–2004). A total of 17 focal mechanism solutions have been used in the calculation of the moment tensor summation. The local magnitudes (MLs) of these events range from 2.8 to 4.7. The analysis indicates that the dominant mode of deformation in the central and northern parts of the Gulf of Suez is extension at a rate of 0.008 mm/year in N28°E direction and a small crustal thinning of 0.0034 mm/year. This low level of strain means that this zone experienced a little seismic deformation. There is also a right lateral shear motion along the ESE–WNW direction. This strain pattern is consistent with the predominant NW–SE normal faulting and ESE–WNW dextral transtensive faults in this zone. Comparing the results obtained from both stress and strain tensors, we find that the orientations of the principal axes of both tensors have the same direction with a small difference between them. Both tensors show a predominantly extensional domain. The nearly good correspondence between principal stress and strain orientations in the area suggests that the tectonic strength is relatively uniform for this crustal volume.     

The 10 June 2012 Fethiye Mw 6.0 aftershock sequence and its relation to the 24–25 April 1957 Ms 6.9–7.1 earthquakes in SW Anatolia,Turkey

The 10 June 2012 M_w 6.0 aftershock sequence in southwestern Anatolia is examined. Centroid moment tensors for 23 earthquakes with moment magnitudes (M_w) between 3.7 and 6.0 are determined by applying a waveform inversion method. The mainshock is a shallow focus strike-slip with reverse component event at a depth of 30 km. The seismic moment (M_o) of the mainshock is estimated as 1.28 × 10¹⁸ Nm and rupture duration of the Fethiye mainshock is 38 s. The focal mechanisms of the aftershocks are mainly strike-slip faulting with a reverse component. The geometry of the focal mechanisms reveals a strike-slip faulting regime with NE–SW trending direction of T-axis in the entire activated region. A stress tensor inversion of focal mechanism data is performed to obtain a more accurate picture of the Fethiye earthquake stress field. The stress tensor inversion results indicate a predominant strike-slip stress regime with a NW–SE oriented maximum horizontal compressive stress (S_H). According to variance of the stress tensor inversion, to first order, the Fethiye earthquake area is characterized by a homogeneous interplate stress field. The Coulomb stress change associated with the mainshock and the largest aftershock are also investigated to evaluate any significant enhancement of stresses along the Gulf of Fethiye and surrounding region. Positive lobes with stress more than 0.4 bars are obtained, indicating that these values are large enough to increase the Coulomb stress failure towards NNW–SSE and E–W directions.     

Crustal deformation in northern Central America

Evaluation of the seismic moment tensor for earthquakes on plate boundary is a standard procedure to determine the relative velocity of plates, which controls the seismic deformation rate predicted from the slip on a single fault. The moment tensor is also decomposed into an isotropic and a deviatoric part to discover the relationship between the average strain rate and the relative velocity between two plates. We utilize this procedure to estimate the rates of deformation in northern Central America where plate boundaries are seismically well defined. Four different tectonic environments are considered for modelling of the plate motions. The deformation rates obtained here compare well with those predicted from the plate motions models and are in good agreement with actual observations. Deformation rates on faults are increasingly being used to estimate earthquake recurrence from information on fault slip rate and more on how we can incorporate our current understanding into seismic hazard analyses.     

Present Kinematic Regime and Recent Seismicity of Gulf Suez,Egypt

In this study we computed recent seismicity and present kinematic regime in the northern and middle zones of Gulf of Suez as inferred from moment tensor settlings and focal mechanism of local earthquakes that happened in this region. On 18 and 22 of July, 2014 two moderate size earthquakes of local magnitudes 4.2 and 4.1 struck the northern zone of Gulf of Suez near Suez City. These events are instrumentally recorded by Egyptian National Seismic Network (ENSN). The earthquakes have been felt at Suez City and greater Cairo metropolitan zone while no losses were reported. The source mechanism and source parameters of the calculated events were considered by the near-source waveform data listed at very broadband stations of ENSN and supported by the P-wave polarity data of short period stations. The new settling method and software used deem the action of the source time function, which has been ignored in most of the program series of the moment tensor settling analysis with near source seismograms. The obtained results from settling technique indicate that the estimated seismic moments of both earthquakes are 0.6621E + 15 and 0.4447E + 15 Nm conforming to a moment magnitude Mw 3.8 and 3.7 respectively. The fault plan settlings obtained from both settling technique and polarity of first-arrival indicate the dominance of normal faulting. We also evaluated the stress field in north and middle zones of Gulf of Suez using a multiple inverse method. The prime strain axis shows that the deformation is taken up mainly as stretching in the E–W and NE–SW direction.     

Source parameters of earthquakes in the reservoir-triggered seismic (RTS) zone of Koyna–Warna, Western India

New empirical relations are derived for source parameters of the Koyna–Warna reservoir-triggered seismic zone in Western India using spectral analysis of 38 local earthquakes in the magnitude range M _L 3.5–5.2. The data come from a seismic network operated by the CSIR-National Geophysical Research Institute, India, during March 2005 to April 2012 in this region. The source parameters viz. seismic moment, source radius, corner frequency and stress drop for the various events lie in the range of 10¹³–10¹⁶ Nm, 0.1–0.4 km, 2.9–9.4 Hz and 3–26 MPa, respectively. Linear relationships are obtained among the seismic moment (M ₀), local magnitude (M _L), moment magnitude (M _w), corner frequency (fc) and stress drop (?σ). The stress drops in the Koyna–Warna region are found to increase with magnitude as well as focal depths of earthquakes. Interestingly, accurate depths derived from moment tensor inversion of earthquake waveforms show a strong correlation with the stress drops, seemingly characteristic of the Koyna–Warna region.     

Source parameters of 1<Superscript>st</Superscript> April 2015 Chamoli earthquake (Mw 4.8) vis-à-vis seismotectonics of the region

The paper presents a detailed analysis of 1^st April 2015 earthquake, whose epicenter (30.16° N, 79.28° E) was located near Simtoli village of Chamoli district, Uttarakhand. The focal depth is refined to 7 km by the grid search technique using moment tensor inversion. The source parameters of the earthquake as estimated by spectral analysis method suggested the source radius of ~1.0 km, seismic moment as 1.99E+23 dyne-cm with moment magnitude (Mw) of 4.8 and stress drop of 69 bar. The fault plane solution inferred using full waveform inversion indicated two nodal planes, the northeast dipping plane having strike 334° and dip 5° and the southwest dipping plane with dip 86° and strike 118°. The parallelism of the nodal plane striking 334° with dip 5° as indicated in depth cross sections of the tectonic elements suggested the north dipping Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) to be the causative fault for this earthquake. Spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes during the period 1960-2015 showed seismic quiescence during 2006-2010 and migration of seismicity towards south.     

Moment tensors and micromechanical models

A numerical modelling approach that simulates cracking and failure in rock and the associated seismicity is presented and a technique is described for quantifying the seismic source mechanisms of the modelled events. The modelling approach represents rock as an assemblage of circular particles bonded together at points of contact. The connecting bonds can break under applied stress forming cracks and fractures in the modelled rock. If numerical damping is set to reproduce realistic levels of attenuation, then energy is released when the bonds break and seismic source information can be obtained as damage occurs. A technique is described by which moment tensors and moment magnitudes can be calculated for these simulated seismic events. The technique basically involves integrating around the source and summing the components of force change at the surrounding particle contacts to obtain the elements of the moment tensor matrix. The moment magnitude is then calculated from the eigenvalues of the moment tensor. The modelling approach is tested by simulating a well-controlled experiment in which a tunnel is excavated in highly stressed granite while microseismicity is recorded. The seismicity produced by the model is compared to the actual recorded seismicity underground. The model reproduces the spatial and temporal distribution of seismicity observed around the tunnel and also the magnitudes of the events. A direct comparison between the actual and simulated moment tensors is not performed due to the two-dimensional nature of the model, however, qualitative comparisons are presented and it is shown that the model produces intuitively realistic source mechanisms. The ability to obtain seismic source information from the models provides a unique means for model validation through comparison with actual recorded seismicity. Once it is established that the model is performing in a realistic manner, it can then be used to examine the micromechanics of cracking, failure and the associated seismicity and to help resolve the non-uniqueness of the geophysical interpretation. This is demonstrated by examining in detail the mechanics of one of the modelled seismic events by observation of the time dependence of the moment tensor and by direct examination of the particle motions at the simulated source.     

Active crustal deformation in two seismogenic zones of the Pannonian region — GPS versus seismological observations

The seismicity and the associated seismic hazard in the central part of the Pannonian region is moderate, however the vulnerability is high, as three capital cities are located near the most active seismic zones. In our analysis two seismically active areas, the Central Pannonian and Mur-Mürz zones, have been considered in order to assess the style and rate of crustal deformation using Global Positioning System (GPS) and earthquake data.We processed data of continuous and campaign GPS measurements obtained during the years 1991–2007. Velocities relative to the stable Eurasia have been computed at HGRN, CEGRN and EPN GPS sites in and around the Pannonian basin. Uniform strain rates and relative displacements were calculated for the investigated regions. GPS data confirm the mostly left lateral strike slip character of the Mur-Mürz–Vienna basin fault system and suggest a contraction between the eastward moving Alpine-North Pannonian unit and the Carpathians.The computation of the seismic strain rate was based on the Kostrov summation. The averaged unit norm seismic moment tensor, which describes the characteristic style of deformation, has been obtained from the available focal mechanism solutions, whereas the annual seismic moment release showing the rate of the deformation was estimated using the catalogues of historical and recent earthquakes.Our analysis reveals that in the Central Pannonian zone the geodetic strain rate is significantly larger than the seismic strain rate. Based on the weakness of the lithosphere, the stress magnitudes and the regional features of seismicity, we suggest that the low value of the seismic/geodetic strain rate ratio can be attributed to the aseismic release of the prevailing compressive stress and not to an overdue major earthquake. In the Mur-Mürz zone, although the uncertainty of the seismic/geodetic strain rate ratio is high, the seismic part of the deformation seems to be notably larger than in the case of the Central Pannonian zone. These results reflect the different deformation mechanism, rheology and tectonic style of the investigated zones.     

岩体破裂矩张量反演方法及其应用

地震及岩体失稳破裂过程中,破裂机制、震源参数及破裂能量等信息均可通过矩张量方法求解,文中详细介绍了矩张量基本理论,对比分析了绝对矩张量反演法、相对矩张量反演法、混合型矩张量反演法等3种常用方法的优缺点。在详细归纳、总结国内外相关文献的基础上,就水压致裂、采矿及深埋隧道等工程领域综述了矩张量反演理论在岩体工程中的应用现状,并结合其在德国黑林根矿区微震事件震源机制分析中的应用实例,表明通过矩张量反演获取的震源机制解及震源参数等信息,在岩体工程灾害预警及防治、水压致裂过程监测和控制等领域具有重要作用。最后分析了影响矩张量反演精度的因素及应用于岩体工程领域时存在的不足,包括定位精度低、波形识别及处理困难等问题,并对其在采矿、石油等岩体工程领域的应用前景、改进措施及需进一步研究的问题等进行了探讨,为矩张量反演方法的推广应用提供重要的参考。     

Modeling of source parameters of the 15 December 2015 Deogarh earthquake of M<Subscript>w</Subscript> 4.0

We herein present source parameters and focal mechanism of a rare cratonic upper crustal earthquake of M_w4.0, which occurred at 8 km depth (centroid depth) below a region near Deogarh, Jharkhand. For our study, we used broadband waveform data from a seismic network of 15 three-component seismographs in the eastern Indian craton. The average seismic moment, moment magnitude and source radius are estimated to be 1.1 × 10¹⁵ N-m, 4.0 and 180.6 m, respectively. The high average stress drop of 14.27 MPa could be attributed to its lower-crustal origin. The mean corner frequency is calculated to be 4.1 Hz. To study the source mechanism, we perform a deviatoric constrained full waveform moment tensor inversion of multiple point sources on the band-passed (0.06 – 0.14 Hz) broadband displacement data of the Deogarh event, using ISOLA software. The best fit is obtained for the source at 8 km centroid depth, with a moment magnitude 3.7, and a right-lateral strike-slip mechanism with strike 162°, dip 72° and rake 169°. The P-axis orients N24°E, which is parallel to the direction of the absolute plate motion direction of Indian plate, while T-axis orients E-W, which is parallel to the strike of the pre-existing Damodar Graben (DG) of Gondwana age. The occurrence of this earthquake is attributed to the neotectonic reactivation of a fault associated with the E-W trending DG shear zone.     

Source parameters of March 10 and September 13, 2007, United Arab Emirates earthquakes

On March 10 and September 13, 2007 two earthquakes with moment magnitudes 3.66 and 3.94, respectively, occurred in the eastern part of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The two events were widely felt in the northern Emirates and Oman and were accompanied by a few aftershocks. Ground motions from these events were well recorded by the broadband stations of Dubai (UAE) and Oman seismological networks and provide an excellent opportunity to study the tectonic process and present day stress field acting in this area. In this study, we report the focal mechanisms of the two main shocks by two methods: first motion polarities and regional waveform moment tensor inversion. Our results indicate nearly pure normal faulting mechanisms with a slight strike slip component. We associated the fault plane trending NNE–SSW with a suggested fault along the extension of the faults bounded Bani Hamid area. The seismicity distribution between two earthquake sequences reveals a noticeable gap that may be a site of a future event. The source parameters (seismic moment, moment magnitude, fault radius, stress drop and displacement across the fault) were also estimated from displacement spectra. The moment magnitudes were very consistent with waveform inversion. The recent deployment of seismic networks in Dubai and Oman reveals tectonic activity in the northern Oman Mountains that was previously unknown. Continued observation and analysis will allow for characterization of seismicity and assessment of seismic hazard in the region.     

Aseismic deformation in the Alps: GPS vs. seismic strain quantification

Neotectonics of the Western and Central Alps is characterized by ongoing widespread extension in the highest zones of the chain and transcurrent/compressive tectonics at the external limits of the belt. The overall geodetically measured deformations also indicate extension across the Western Alps. There is a good qualitative coherency between seismotectonic and geodetic approaches. Here we attempt to quantify the seismic part of the deformation. The seismic strain is compared to the deformation derived from geodesy. In sub‐areas of homogeneous seismic stress/strain, we computed the total seismic moment tensor and related strain tensor. This study provides new quantitative elements about the ongoing geodynamic processes in the alpine belt. The important discrepancies obtained between seismic strains and geodetically‐measured deformations raise the issue of aseismic deformation in the Alps, which could be related to elastic loading, creeping and/or a slower ductile‐style deformation.     

Source Parameters of Old Earthquakes: Semi-Automatic Digitization of Analog Records and Seismic Moment Assessment

Recovering seismic information contained in old analog records could increase our knowledge of seismic source characteristics and the seismicity of a region. This is particularly important in zones with low to moderate seismicity.To extract the available information, it is necessary to digitize the seismic records. This is not an easy task especially owing to the generally poor quality of the original records, with illegible or missing parts. However some exceptions were found in the records of a few seismological stations in Germany, Sweden and France.This paper presents an example of the recovering of source parameters and can be divided in two parts: the first one presents a simple semi-automatic technique for digitization of old analog seismic records, developed using commercial software on a PC; the second part describes the methodology of assessing the seismic moment, using empirical and theoretical relations, as well as the seismic source dimensions.The earthquake selected to illustrate this procedure is the 23 April 1909 Benavente (Portugal) earthquake. This earthquake occurred in the Lower Tagus Valley region and caused great destruction in the meizoseismal area. It is the biggest earthquake that occurred during this century in the central part of the country and its magnitude has been estimated between 6.6 and 7.6.The digitization procedure allowed the recovery of seismic information contained in old analog records, in particular, the seismic moment estimation. The results obtained indicated that 7.6 was a very high value for the magnitude of the 23 April 1909 earthquake, suggesting that the magnitude reported in the Portuguese catalogue is overestimated. The estimated moment magnitude is 6.0.     

KINEMATICS OF QUATERNARY EXTENSION IN THE PAMIR

KINEMATICS OF QUATERNARY EXTENSION IN THE PAMIR1　BurtmanVS ,MolnarP .GeologicalandgeophysicalevidencefordeepsubductionofcontinentalcrustbeneaththePamir[J].SpecPapGeolSocAm ,1993,2 81:76 . 2　StreckerMR ,FrischW ,HamburgerMW ,etal.QuaternarydeformationintheEasternPamirs ,TadzhikistanandKyrgyzs tan[J].Tectonics,1995 ,14(5 ) :10 6 1～ 10 79.…     

A deterministic seismic hazard analysis for shallow earthquakes in Greece

The maximum expected ground motion in Greece is estimated for shallow earthquakes using a deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA). In order to accomplish this analysis the input data include an homogeneous catalogue of earthquakes for the period 426 BC–2003, a seismogenic source model with representative focal mechanisms and a set of velocity models. Because of the discrete character of the earthquake catalogue and of errors in location of single seismic events, a smoothing algorithm is applied to the catalogue of the main shocks to get a spatially smoothed distribution of magnitude. Based on the selected input parameters synthetic seismograms for an upper frequency content of 1 Hz are computed on a grid of 0.2° × 0.2°. The resultant horizontal components for displacement, velocity, acceleration and DGA (Design Ground Acceleration) are mapped. The maps which depict these results cannot be compared with previously published maps based on probabilistic methodologies as the latter were compiled for a mean return period of 476 years. Therefore, in order to validate our deterministic analysis, the final results are compared with PGA estimated from the maximum observed macroseismic intensity in Greece during the period 426 BC–2003.Since the results are obtained for point sources, with the frequency content scaled with moment magnitude, some sensitivity tests are performed to assess the influence of the finite extent of fault related to large events. Sensitivity tests are also performed to investigate the changes in the peak ground motion quantities when varying the crustal velocity models in some seismogenic areas. The ratios and the relative differences between the results obtained using different models are mapped and their mean value computed. The results highlight the importance in the deterministic approach of using good and reliable velocity models.     

Stress field estimation based on focal mechanisms and back projected imaging in the Eastern Llanos Basin (Colombia)

At least 156 earthquakes (Mw 2.8–4.4) were detected in Puerto Gaitán, Colombia (Eastern Llanos Basin) between April 2013 and December 2014. Out of context, this figure is not surprising. However, from its inception in 1993, the Colombian National Seismological Network (CNSN) found no evidence of significant seismic events in this region. In this study, we used CNSN data to model the rupture front and orientation of the highest-energy events. For these earthquakes, we relied on a joint inversion method to estimate focal mechanisms and, in turn, determine the area's fault trends and stress tensor. While the stress tensor defines maximum stress with normal tendency, focal mechanisms generally represent normal faults with NW orientation, an orientation which lines up with the tracking rupture achieved via Back Projection Imaging for the study area. We ought to bear in mind that this anomalous earthquake activity has taken place within oil fields. In short, the present paper argues that, based on the spatiotemporal distribution of seismic events, hydrocarbon operations may induce the study area's seismicity.     

用长周期体波反演地震矩张量及其实际意义

摘　 要　 介绍了地震矩张量的性质和用长周期体波反演地震矩张量的方法。用地震矩张量表 示震源‚能够使震源参数线性化‚从而实现由观测资料快速、简捷地反演出震源参数。     

Stress fields and fault reactivation angles of the 2000 western Tottori aftershocks and the 2001 northern Hyogo swarm in southwest Japan

We estimated the stress fields of the aftershocks of the 2000 western Tottori earthquake (M_w 6.6) and the northern Hyogo swarm (max M_w 5.2) by a stress tensor inversion of moment tensor solutions reported from the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (Japan). The maximum principal stress direction of the western Tottori sequence was estimated as N107°E with a strike–slip regime. In the northern Hyogo swarm, the orientations of the principal stress directions could not be well constrained by the observed data, but after examining the detailed characteristics of the solution, we obtained a most probable solution of N113°E for the σ₁ direction. These solutions are consistent with the maximum horizontal directions roughly estimated from the strike directions of large earthquakes occurring geographically between these two seismic activities. We measured the angle between each fault–slip direction and maximum principal stress direction to investigate the frictional properties of earthquakes. The distribution of the angles was forward modeled to estimate the coefficient of friction and the stress ratio, assuming uniformly distributed fault orientations. For the western Tottori sequence, a homogeneous stress field with a coefficient of friction less than 0.4 was estimated. A high stress level was also suggested because very little change occurred in the stress field during the mainshock. For the northern Hyogo sequence, the coefficient of friction was estimated to be between 0.5 and 1.0.