Validation of ship manoeuvring models using metamodels

This paper describes how simplified auxiliary models—metamodels—can be used to create benchmarks for validating ship manoeuvring simulation models. A metamodel represents ship performance for a limited range of parameters, such as rudder angles and surge velocity. In contrast to traditional system identification methods, metamodels are identified from multiple trial recordings, each containing data on the ship’s inherent dynamics (similar for all trials) and random disturbances such as environmental effects and slightly different loading conditions. Thus, metamodels can be used to obtain these essential data, where simple averaging is not possible. In addition, metamodels are used to represent a ship’s behaviour and not to obtain physical insights into ship dynamics. The experimental trials used for the identification of metamodels can be found in in-service recorded data. After the metamodel is identified, it is used to simulate trials without substantial deviations from the ship state parameters used for the identification. Subsequently, the predictions of the metamodels are compared with the predictions of a tested manoeuvring simulation model. We present two case studies to demonstrate the application of metamodels for moderate turning motions of two ships.     

离水辐射非朗伯特性的Monte Carlo模拟及分析

水体光场的非朗伯特性(二向性)是目前水色反演算法中的误差因素之一。随着新一代高精度水色遥感器的发射,原来的许多次要因素已变得不可忽略。为研究水体光场的非朗伯特性,首先建立了一个三维MonteCarlo海洋光学模型,并利用国际上提出的7个海洋光学标准问题中的4个对模型的正确性进行了检验;在此基础上,模拟了不同太阳天顶角、体成分等参数对离水辐射率的方向特性的影响。模拟结果表明,在一定的遥感器-太阳-像元几何条件下,同一水体的光场二向性带来的离水辐射率变化可能大于已有的业务化水色大气修正算法反演高水辐射率的误差。模拟结果对水色遥感中正确进行现场数据获取及遥感与地面数据比对有一定的意义。     

Identification of hydrodynamic coefficients for manoeuvring simulation model of a fishing vessel

The results of numerical and experimental investigations on the manoeuvring performance of a fishing vessel, typical for Mediterranean Sea, are here presented. PMM experiments were used for evaluating hydrodynamic derivatives and implementing the theoretical model. The simulation model was validated, both with zig-zag and spiral experimental model tests results in still water and compared with Tribon Initial Design module results.     

非均一相互作用能对超薄膜生长影响的Monte Carlo模拟研究

利用Monte Carlo (MC)模拟技术研究了非均一的吸附原子与基底相互作用能在一定的生长条件下对超薄膜生长过程的影响.非均一相互作用能是由基底表面原子在垂直和水平方向上实际位置与理想晶格原子位置的偏差所造成.本文用高斯分布来表示这种非均一相互作用能.模拟结果表明:非均一相互作用能对超薄膜的生长过程及薄膜的形貌有显著的影响.这种影响同时受到生长条件的限制,在中等温度时相互作用能的非均一性对岛的个数、平均大小的影响最显著;温度的增加在一定程度上可抵御相互作用能的非均一性对薄膜生长的影响.     

Statistical simulation of wave climate and extreme beach erosion

Recent developments in extreme values modelling have been used to develop a framework for determining the coastal erosion hazard on sandy coastlines. This framework quantitatively reproduced the extreme beach erosion volumes obtained from field measurements at Narrabeen Beach, Australia. This encouraging finding was achieved using Kriebel and Dean's [Kriebel, D.L. and Dean, R.G., 1993. Convolution method for time-dependent beach profile response. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering, 119(2): 204–226.] simple beach erosion and accretion model. The method includes allowances for joint probability between all basic erosion variates including; wave height, period and direction, event duration, tidal anomalies and event spacing. A new formulation for the dependency between wave height and period has been developed. It includes the physical wave steepness limitation. Event grouping, where significantly more erosion can occur from two closely spaced storms is handled by temporally simulating the synthetic wave climate and the resulting beach erosion and accretion.     

Assessment of manoeuvring performance of large tankers in restricted waterways: a real-time simulation approach

During the past 30 years there has been a steady growth in the size and number of ships that use the Strait of Istanbul (Bosporus) which is one of the most hazardous, crowded, difficult and potentially dangerous waterways in the world. There have been over 200 accidents over the past decade resulting in loss of life and serious damage to the environment. This paper presents the results of a real-time ship manoeuvring simulation study investigating the manoeuvring performance of large tankers in the Bosporus. The study was conducted with a ship manoeuvring simulator which is capable of subjecting a given hull form to any combination of environmental conditions, i.e. wind, current and wave drift forces. The results indicate that when realistic environmental conditions are taken into account the size of ships which can navigate safely in compliance with the traffic separation lanes is limited.     

Effect of surge uncertainty on probabilistically computed dune erosion

To assess the flood protection capacity of dunes in The Netherlands, a semi-probabilistic dune-erosion prediction method is currently in use in which uncertainties in input parameters of an empirical dune erosion model were taken into account, with the exception of the uncertainty in the extreme surge distribution. Previous research has shown that the surge is by far the most influential parameter affecting erosion in the currently used erosion model, which is due both to the influence of the surge level itself and to the conditional dependence of the wave height and period on the surge level in the probabilistic model used for the assessment. Furthermore, the distribution of extreme surge levels has been shown to contain large statistical uncertainty. The inclusion of uncertainty in input variables into probabilistic models results in more extreme events (in this case erosion) for the same exceedance probability, largely due to the incorporation of higher values of the input variables. The goal of the research described in this paper was to determine the impact of the inclusion of uncertainty in the extreme surge distribution on the estimate of critical erosion (erosion associated with an exceedance frequency of 10^− 5 per year). The uncertainty in the surge distributions was estimated and parameterized, and was incorporated into the probabilistic model. A reduction in uncertainty was subsequently imposed to estimate what value a reduction in uncertainty can offer, in terms of the impact on critical erosion. The probabilistic technique first-order reliability method (FORM) was applied to determine the relative contribution of the uncertainty in the surge distribution (as well as the remaining stochastic variables) to the critical erosion. The impact of the inclusion of uncertainty in the surge distribution on the critical retreat distance was found to be substantial with increases ranging from 34% to 93% of the original estimate at five locations along the Dutch coast. The reduced uncertainty showed a more subtle impact, with increases in critical retreat distance ranging from 10% to 26% of the original estimate. The relative importance analysis showed that the uncertainty in the surge distribution has a strong influence, with the relative importance ranging from 10% to 23% for an exceedance frequency of 10^− 5 per year.     

Efficient estimation of extreme response of drag-dominated offshore structures by Monte Carlo simulation

The paper describes a novel approach to the problem of estimating the extreme response statistics of a drag-dominated offshore structure exhibiting a pronounced dynamic behaviour when subjected to harsh weather conditions. It is shown that the key quantity for extreme response prediction is the mean upcrossing rate function, which can be simply extracted from simulated response time histories. A commonly adopted practice for obtaining adequate extremes for design purposes requires the execution of 20 or more 3-h time domain analyses for several extreme sea states. For early phase considerations, it would be convenient if extremes of a reasonable accuracy could be obtained based on shorter and fewer simulations. The aim of the work reported in the present paper has therefore been to develop specific methods which make it possible to extract the necessary information about the extreme response from relatively short time histories.The method proposed in this paper opens up the possibility to predict simply and efficiently both short-term and long-term extreme response statistics. The results presented are based on extensive simulation results for the Kvitebjørn jacket structure, in operation on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. Specifically, deck response time histories for different sea states simulated from an MDOF model were used as the basis for our analyses.     

Evaluation of manoeuvring coefficients of a self-propelled ship using a blade element momentum propeller model coupled to a Reynolds averaged Navier Stokes flow solver

The use of an unsteady computational fluid dynamic analysis of the manoeuvring performance of a self-propelled ship requires a large computational resource that restricts its use as part of a ship design process. A method is presented that significantly reduces computational cost by coupling a blade element momentum theory (BEMT) propeller model with the solution of the Reynolds averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) equations. The approach allows the determination of manoeuvring coefficients for a self-propelled ship travelling straight ahead, at a drift angle and for differing rudder angles. The swept volume of the propeller is divided into discrete annuli for which the axial and tangential momentum changes of the fluid passing through the propeller are balanced with the blade element performance of each propeller section. Such an approach allows the interaction effects between hull, propeller and rudder to be captured. Results are presented for the fully appended model scale self-propelled KRISO very large crude carrier 2 (KVLCC2) hull form undergoing static rudder and static drift tests at a Reynolds number of 4.6×10⁶ acting at the ship self-propulsion point. All computations were carried out on a typical workstation using a hybrid finite volume mesh size of 2.1×10⁶ elements. The computational uncertainty is typically 2–3% for side force and yaw moment.     

超声回弹综合法检测单一构件混凝土强度推定值的保证率分析

在实际工程检测数据的基础上,利用M on te C arlo试验对单一构件混凝土强度推定值的保证率问题进行了分析。30片梁板实测数据分析结果表明:将构件各测区混凝土强度换算值的最小值作为该构件的混凝土强度推定值的保证率范围为79.0%~94.2%,小于《超声回弹综合法检测混凝土强度技术规程》(CECS 02:88)规定的95%保证率要求,因此,对结构性能鉴定而言该混凝土强度推定值是偏于不安全的,应引起试验检测人员的充分重视。     

极化X波段雷达海面溢油微波散射模型研究

为研究溢油对海面电磁散射的影响,作者根据海面复合微波散射模型理论和蒙特卡洛统计模型理论,通过引入单分子油膜的黏性阻尼,对粗糙的溢油海面进行建模,定量分析溢油对海浪谱和海面后向散射系数值两个方面的影响。为实现基于X波段雷达海面溢油检测提供理论支撑,有助于解决溢油检测中的虚警率高的问题。     

分层水体对表层辐照度比影响的蒙特卡罗分析

众多海洋观测数据表明,在真光层深度范围内,海水固有光学特性和光学有效组分的剖面分层分布是广泛存在的,而很多遥感反演模型的建立基于均一分布假设,尤其是在经验模型的建立中,往往只利用某一深度或各深度平均的光学有效组分浓度与水体光谱的统计关系。文章通过模拟平静水面水下光的辐射传输,分别研究了叶绿素、无机悬浮物浓度垂直分布结构对水下辐照度比的影响,并对比了两类分层水体权重函数等效浓度计算式及相应水下辐照度比,结果表明,对于分层水体,透射深度和层化强度是影响等效浓度值计算误差的主要因素,透射越深,表层层化越强,水体层化对水下辐照度比的影响就越大,但其计算误差也越大。Gondon等效浓度计算结果比较接近实际值,而Zaneveld计算式则高估了分层水体的等效浓度值。     

大气-海浪耦合模式对台风“碧利斯”的数值模拟

本文将海表粗糙度作为耦合大气、海浪模式的重要因子,实现中尺度大气模式MM5(V3)和第三代海浪模式WAVEWATCHⅢ的双向耦合,建立充分考虑大气、海浪相互作用的大气.海浪耦合模式.将该大气-海浪耦合模式应用于对0604次台风"碧利斯"的数值模拟,在耦合模式中引入Smith92海表粗糙度参数化方案,探讨其对台风和台风浪的影响.研究结果表明,大气-海浪耦合模式能够抓住台风过程的总体特征.Smith92海表粗糙度参数化方案对台风路径影响不大.但在台风系统强度的模拟上影响明显,采用Smith92方案使得台风系统强度显著增强,对台风系统强度的模拟有明显改善.同样,大气-海浪耦合模式能够很好的模拟台风过程中海浪的传播和演变.采用Smith92方案使得海面有效波高明显增高,对海面有效波高的模拟有一定程度改善.因此,在大气-海浪耦合模式中恰当的选择海表粗糙度参数化对改进大气-海浪耦合模式的模拟效果是很有意义的.     

完全非线性波浪破碎模型沿岸流数值模拟

探讨一种基于完全非线性Boussinesq方程的波浪破碎模型在沿岸流计算中的应用问题。针对控制方程中的完全非线性项对沿岸流成长过程的影响进行了深入讨论。数学模型计算结果表明,完全非线性项有使平均流局部化的作用;通过数模实验还发现,垂向高阶涡度项可以有效抑制破波区外回流;运用Visser的实验室沿岸流实测资料从沿岸流速度、波高和平均水位几方面对所提模型进行了验证,并给出了紊动参数的计算结果。     

Numerical simulation of storm surges in Bangladesh using a bay-river coupled model

A numerical hydrodynamic model is described for the simulation of storm surges in Bangladesh. The model applies to a region including the river Meghna and allows account to be taken of the freshwater discharge through the river. By using a forcing wind stress distribution representative of the 1970 Chittagong cyclone, a comparison is made between model simulations both with and without inclusion of the river along the Bangladesh coast. The conclusion is that the introduction of the effect of a river in storm surge models may lead to an important change in the detailed prediction.     

运用支持向量机方法对数值模拟结果的初步释用

基于获得的海水浴场逐日两次观测资料及同期NCEP数值模拟结果(提取各种相关变量),通过求取两者之间的相互关系,并采用最优子集方法确定了对各预报要素具有重要意义的影响因子。针对海水浴场的气温、降水及能见度等要素的预报,应用支持向量机方法建立了相应的预测模型,最终获得不同海水浴场在不同预报时效、不同预报要素的数值产品释用结果。经过对比分析,各预报要素释用后的结果较释用前在预报准确率方面有较大的提高。     

Incorporating uncertainty into the estimation of biological reference points for a spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery

The status of a fishery is often defined as the probability of fishing mortality rate exceeding a perilous level for long‐term sustainability. Lobster stock assessments are often subject to large uncertainty in input data and high levels of natural variability in lobster life history processes, which calls for incorporating uncertainty associated with both indicator and management reference points in an evaluation of biological risk of overfishing. Using a Monte Carlo simulation approach, we evaluated the impacts of uncertainty in modelling on the determination of the status of the Taitung spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery (Taiwan), which has not been quantitatively determined despite its commercial importance. The commonly used biological reference points derived from the per recruit model (F _0.1 the fishing mortality rate where the slope of the curve of yield‐per‐recruit model is 10% of the maximum slope and F _4Q%, the fishing mortality rate that reduces the expected egg production for a cohort of female lobsters to 40% of that produced in the absence of a fishery of the egg‐per‐recruit model) were influenced by uncertainties associated with lobster life history and fishery parameters. A large uncertainty in the current fishing mortality rate (F _cnr) and estimates of biological reference points (F _BRPs) increased the uncertainty in determining the risk of overexploitation throughout the confidence levels of the stochastic decision‐making framework. This simulation study suggests that the target reference point of F _40% is less sensitive to the input parameters’ uncertainty than F _0.1 We suggest a further evaluation of other F‐based references points and development of biomass‐based reference points before final selection and implementation for the management of the Taitung lobster fishery.     

独山港表层沉积物重金属潜在生态风险的Monte Carlo模拟

基于沉积物重金属污染风险评估系统的不确定性和随机性,采用Monte Carlo模拟技术定量刻画沉积物重金属含量数据分布特征,并通过与潜在生态风险指数法的综合集成,评估了独山港海域表层沉积物重金属(Cu、Pb、Zn、Cr、Cd、Hg和As)的潜在生态风险水平。结果表明,港区中Cu、Pb和Zn为中等污染,Cd、Cr、Hg和As为轻微污染;综合污染指数C_d处于轻微污染的概率为38.32%,处于中等污染的概率为61.68%。所有7种重金属污染程度以及潜在生态风险指数RI均为轻微级。敏感性分析表明,Cu、Zn和Cr对C_d和RI起主导作用。