Exploration of the wind-induced drift characteristics of typical Chinese offshore fishing vessels

The drift motion of a maritime distress target is the collective result of the balance of forces that comes from wind, currents and waves. The drift properties vary from one type of object to another. The objective of this paper is to explore the leeway drift characteristics of typical Chinese offshore fishing vessels as well as evaluate the leeway drift model. First, a series of field experiments were conducted in South China Sea to provide data source. Next, nine leeway coefficients in AP98 leeway model were derived by the least square fitting based on the experimental data. Furthermore, another drifting dynamics model based on a balance of forces on the drifting vessel due to wind and currents, was also calibrated for comparison. Finally, two cases of drift trajectory and searching areas were simulated by the two different models through Lagrangian particle tracking and Monte Carlo techniques. Results indicate that the AP98 leeway model is in better accordance with the observation compared with the drifting dynamics model. Additionally, the simulation accuracy of AP98 leeway model can be improved to some extent especially when the probability of positive crosswind (POPC) is considered. Considering the large number of the typical offshore fishing vessels in South China Sea, and their high accident rate, the model coefficients for this type of vessels are expected to be implemented into more search and rescue (SAR) models by SAR organizations.     

Wind-induced drift of objects at sea: The leeway field method

A method for conducting leeway field experiments to establish the drift properties of small objects (0.1-25 m) is described. The objective is to define a standardized and unambiguous procedure for condensing the drift properties down to a set of coefficients that may be incorporated into existing stochastic trajectory forecast models for drifting objects of concern to search and rescue operations and other activities involving vessels lost at sea such as containers with hazardous material.An operational definition of the slip or wind and wave-induced motion of a drifting object relative to the ambient current is proposed. This definition taken together with a strict adherence to a 10 m wind speed allows us to refer unambiguously to the leeway of a drifting object. We recommend that all objects if possible be studied using what we term the direct method, where the object’s leeway is studied directly using an attached current meter.We establish a minimum set of parameters that should be estimated for a drifting object for it to be included in the operational forecast models used for prediction of search areas for drifting objects.We divide drifting objects into four categories, depending on their size. For the smaller objects (less than 0.5 m), an indirect method of measuring the object’s motion relative to the ambient current must be used. For larger objects, direct measurement of the motion through the near-surface water masses is strongly recommended. Larger objects are categorized according to the ability to attach current meters and wind monitoring systems to them.The leeway field method proposed here is illustrated with results from field work where three objects were studied in their distress configuration; a 1:3.3 sized model of a 40-foot Shipping container, a World War II mine and a 220 l (55-gallon) oil drum.     

On predicting boat drift for search and rescue

A theoretical model for predicting boat drift for search and rescue missions is presented in this work. The drift model is based on the law of physics which govern the motion of a floating body in a given wind and surface current field. In terms of the empirical aerodynamics force coefficients of the boat or any other drifting object, external wind field, and current field, the drift velocity of the boat being searched for can be obtained. The uncertainty of the characteristics of the boat’s drift is evaluated by interval analysis of the uncertainties of the characteristics of the drifting boat and external forcing fields. The search area expansion and the source of uncertainty are systematically evaluated. The current statistical model-based operational definitions of leeway drift, leeway rate, leeway angle, divergence angle, leeway divergence, downwind component of leeway, and crosswind component of leeway are clarified in light of the presented theoretical model. The divergence angle and leeway divergence are evaluated through the interval analysis of the uncertainty of the parameters involved.     

Total kinetic energy in four global eddying ocean circulation models and over 5000 current meter records

We compare the total kinetic energy (TKE) in four global eddying ocean circulation simulations with a global dataset of over 5000, quality controlled, moored current meter records. At individual mooring sites, there was considerable scatter between models and observations that was greater than estimated statistical uncertainty. Averaging over all current meter records in various depth ranges, all four models had mean TKE within a factor of two of observations above 3500 m, and within a factor of three below 3500 m. With the exception of observations between 20 and 100 m, the models tended to straddle the observations. However, individual models had clear biases. The free running (no data assimilation) model biases were largest below 2000 m. Idealized simulations revealed that the parameterized bottom boundary layer tidal currents were not likely the source of the problem, but that reducing quadratic bottom drag coefficient may improve the fit with deep observations. Data assimilation clearly improved the model-observation comparison, especially below 2000 m, despite assimilated data existing mostly above this depth and only south of 47 °N. Different diagnostics revealed different aspects of the comparison, though in general the models appeared to be in an eddying-regime with TKE that compared reasonably well with observations.     

Bio-optical properties of high chlorophyll Case 1 waters and of yellow-substance-dominated Case 2 waters

Case 1 waters with high chlorophyll content can be encountered as soon as the nutrient availability is high enough and the terrestrial influence by land drainage is negligible. Offshore oceanic blooms and upwelling zones along arid coasts are instances of such waters. Their bio-optical properties are less documented compared to those of mesotrophic or oligotrophic waters. A coherent set of measurements of bio-geochemical properties (algal pigments, suspended particulate matter), inherent optical properties (absorption and scattering by water bodies and by particulate material), and apparent optical properties (hyperspectral reflectance and diffuse attenuation coefficients) was obtained within the Benguela Current, i.e. in an upwelling area with arid climate and no runoff. These data allow the bio-optical relationships in eutrophic Case 1 waters to be analyzed, and their natural variability to be compared with that previously observed in less productive waters. In addition, a comparison between eutrophic Case 1 waters and yellow substance dominated Case 2 waters can be made, since such waters are also present in the area under investigation. The coherence between the inherent and apparent optical properties is also analyzed via inversion. Despite some deficiencies in their parameterization, the existing bio-optical models for Case 1 waters were proven to be valid such that they can be extended without significant discontinuities toward the domain of high concentration (up to 30 mg m⁻³). In particular, those models in use for the interpretation of remotely sensed ocean color continue to apply, even if the sensitivity of current algorithms for the chlorophyll retrieval weakens owing to inescapable physical limitations in the case of high concentrations.     

Fish settlement in the ocean vs. estuary: Comparison of pelagic larval and settled juvenile composition and abundance from southern New Jersey,U.S.A.

To describe the larval and juvenile fish fauna and to evaluate the relative contribution of the ocean and the estuary as settlement areas for benthic species, we compared the composition and abundance of larval fish supply to that of recently settled juvenile fishes in both ocean and an adjacent estuary habitats in southern New Jersey. The study was conducted from May to November 1992 in the Great Bay–Little Egg Harbor estuary (<1–8 m sampling depth) and on the adjacent inner continental shelf in the vicinity of Beach Haven Ridge (8–16 m). During the study more larvae nearing settlement (postflexion) were captured in the estuary than in the ocean. Settlement occurred earlier in the estuary than in the ocean perhaps under the influence of earlier, seasonal warming of estuarine waters. There appeared to be two spatial patterns of settlement in the study area based on the dominant species (n = 17) represented by a sufficient number of individuals (n ≥ 25 individuals). There were species that primarily settle in the estuary, as represented by both estuarine residents (n = 3) and transients (n = 4), and those that settle in both the estuary and the ocean (n = 10). However, there were no species whose larvae were present in the estuary yet settle in the ocean. The fact that many of the species settle in both the estuary and the ocean indicates an overlap between these habitats because, at least for some species, these habitats may function in the same way. Further resolution of fish settlement patterns, and its influence on recruitment will need to rely on synoptic comparisons between estuaries and the ocean over multiple years.     

The model of tracing drift targets and its application in the South China Sea

A Leeway-Trace model was established for the traceability analysis of drifting objects at sea. The model was based on the Leeway model which is a Monte Carlo-based ensemble trajectory model, and a method of realistic traceability analysis was proposed in this study by using virtual spatiotemporal drift trajectory prediction. Here,measured data from a drifting buoy observation experiment in the northern South China Sea in April 2019,combined with surface current data obtained from the finite volu...     

Computations of the energy flux to mixing processes via baroclinic wave drag on barotropic tides

The geographical distribution of barotropic to baroclinic transfer of tidal energy by baroclinic wave drag in the abyssal ocean is estimated. Using tidal velocities from a state-of-the-art numerical tidal model, the total loss of barotropic tidal energy in the deep ocean (between 70°S and 70°N and at depths greater than 1000 m) is estimated to be about 0.7 TW (M₂) corresponding to a mean value of the energy flux (e) of 2.4×10⁻³ W/m². The distribution of e is however highly skewed with a median of about 10⁻⁶ W/m². Only 10% of the area is responsible for more than 97% of the total energy transfer.To assess the possible influence of the relatively coarse bathymetry representation upon the present estimate, complementary calculations using better resolved sea floor topography are carried out over a control area around the Hawaiian Ridge. There are no major differences between the results achieved using the two different bathymetry databases. Fluxes of about 16 GW or 6×10⁻³ W/m² are computed in both cases, and the main contributions to the total fluxes originate in the same range of e-values and cover equally large parts of the total area.It is not clear whether the present model is valid at flat or subcritical bottom slopes. However, for the Hawaiian region, only 2% of the total energy flux as calculated in the present study originates in areas of critical and subcritical slopes.     

GIS for land evaluation for shrimp farming in Haiphong of Vietnam

This study was conducted to identify appropriate sites for shrimp farming development in Haiphong province of Vietnam using geographical information systems (GIS). Thirteen base layers (thematic maps) were grouped into four main land use requisites for aquaculture, namely, (1) potential for pond construction (slope, land use type, soil thickness, elevation), (2) soil quality (soil type, soil texture, soil pH), (3) water availability (distance to sea, and water source), and (4) infrastructure and socio-economical status (population density, distance to roads, local markets, and hatcheries). A constraint layer was used to exclude areas from suitability maps that were not allowed to implement shrimp farming. A series of GIS models was developed to identify and prioritize the most suitable areas for shrimp farming.This study shows that the land evaluation model is useful for identifying suitable areas for shrimp farming and for allocating land for efficient income generation, effective conservation, and sustainable land management. It was estimated that about 31% (2604 ha) of the total land area (8281 ha) in Haiphong was highly suitable for shrimp farming. Since existing shrimp farms cover only 1690 ha of land in the study area, the potential for expanding shrimp farms should take into consideration further political and environmental issues.     

High short-term variability of CO2 fluxes during an upwelling event off the Chilean coast at 30°S

pH and alkalinity measurements from a coastal upwelling area located near 30°S (Coquimbo, Chile), are used to describe the short-term variations of CO₂ air–sea exchanges over a period of one week in summer 1996. A 180 km ocean–coastal transect, together with two almost-synoptic grid surveys off Coquimbo covering approximate 2500 km² each, showed that during and immediately after a 4 day long southwesterly wind event (24–28 January) a large area of cold surface water (≈14°C), highly supersaturated in CO₂ (fCO₂ up to 900 μatm), was located near the coast. Three days after the end of the event, the second grid survey showed that in most of the study area the surface temperature and pH had increased significantly (by 1–3°C and 0.05–0.2, respectively), and that the surface water was no longer supersaturated in CO₂. The CO₂-supersaturated water observed in the first grid survey was identified as upwelled subsurface equatorial water, a water mass with its core at about 200 m depth: the depth from which the water upwells is a major determinant of the surface water fCO₂. Integrated C fluxes within a 20 km wide coastal strip (1900 km²) indicate a strong outgassing of CO₂ from the ocean under upwelling conditions (Grid 1; 121 t C day^-1), while the net C exchange was directed to the ocean during the relaxation period (Grid 2; 19 t C day^-1). Estimates of CO₂ fluxes in upwelling areas based on surface water fCO₂ measurements must therefore take into account these short-term variations: reliance on longer-term averages and interpolation will lead to erroneous results.     

Acoustic propagation analysis with a sound speed feature model in the front area of Kuroshio Extension

This paper aims to analyse acoustic-propagation character in the front area of Kuroshio Extension (KE). By analysing Argo data and the Sea surface height (SSH) data in this KEF area, a two-dimensional (2D) sound-speed feature model (SSPFM) characterising the KEF is proposed. The SSPFM has a transition zone with a width about 100 km and the sound channel changes from 1000 m south of KEF to 300 m north of KEF, resulting in a sharp gradient about 7 m/km. Along with the meandering character of the KEF axis, the sharp gradient results in a rather complicated acoustic environment in the KEF area. With reanalysis data from the hybrid coordinate ocean model, a three-dimensional (3D) sound-speed environment is established. The acoustic propagation character in the KEF area is then analysed with the 2D SSPFM and the 3D acoustic environment. Results show that the KEF affects acoustic propagation mainly by modifying the sound channel depth. Given that acoustic propagation in the KEF area is influenced mainly by the meandering KEF, with the near-real-time SSH data to locate the KEF, the 2D SSPFM is able to provide a near-real-time estimate of the underwater 3D acoustic environment.     

Numerical assessment of bathymetric changes caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami at Kirinda Fishery Harbor,Sri Lanka

Thus far various numerical models have been developed and improved to aid understanding of the sediment transport process due to tsunamis. However, the applicability of these models for the field-scale bathymetric change remains a major issue due to the scarcity of measured bathymetric data immediately before and after tsunamis. This study focuses on assessing the applicability of the sediment transport model by comparing the model results with measured bathymetry data obtained one month before and two months after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami at Kirinda Fishery Harbor, Sri Lanka. Obtained model results were compared with measured data along four different transects. In particular, similar to the measured data, the model reproduced the bed level change at the harbor mouth well, although it shows some discrepancy on bathymetric change along the shoreline, which is directly affected by littoral drift. Therefore, it is noted that the divergence of reproducing the local bathymetry change is due to the normal wind wave effect on measured data and the model limitations. Hence we included the wind wave effect in modeled data and the discrepancy between measured and modeled data was reduced. Furthermore, the modeled bed level change indicates a dynamic behavior in terms of the net variation during the tsunami flow, such that deposition dominates in the inflow and erosion dominates in the backflow. Both bed level variation and the suspended load concentration reveal that the large amount of eroded sediment attributable to tsunami waves was in suspended form and was deposited in the nearshore area after the water fluctuation had abated. The model results further indicate that eroded sediment at the initial depth deeper than 11 m might be brought by the incoming tsunami waves and deposited in the nearshore area where the depth is shallower than 7 m.     

Ocean current estimation using a Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter during the Grand Lagrangian Deployment experiment (GLAD)

In the summer and fall of 2012, during the GLAD experiment in the Gulf of Mexico, the Consortium for Advanced Research on Transport of Hydrocarbon in the Environment (CARTHE) used several ocean models to assist the deployment of more than 300 surface drifters. The Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) at 1 km and 3 km resolutions, the US Navy operational NCOM at 3 km resolution (AMSEAS), and two versions of the Hybrid Coordinates Ocean Model (HYCOM) set at 4 km were running daily and delivering 72-h range forecasts. They all assimilated remote sensing and local profile data but they were not assimilating the drifter’s observations. This work presents a non-intrusive methodology named Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter that allows assimilating the local drifter data into such a set of models, to produce improved ocean currents forecasts. The filter is to be used when several modeling systems or ensembles are available and/or observations are not entirely handled by the operational data assimilation process. It allows using generic in situ measurements over short time windows to improve the predictability of local ocean dynamics and associated high-resolution parameters of interest for which a forward model exists (e.g. oil spill plumes). Results can be used for operational applications or to derive enhanced background fields for other data assimilation systems, thus providing an expedite method to non-intrusively assimilate local observations of variables with complex operators. Results for the GLAD experiment show the method can improve water velocity predictions along the observed drifter trajectories, hence enhancing the skills of the models to predict individual trajectories.     

Bioenergetic model estimates of interannual and spatial patterns in consumption demand and growth potential of juvenile pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) in the Gulf of Alaska

A bioenergetic model of juvenile pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) was used to estimate daily prey consumption and growth potential of four ocean habitats in the Gulf of Alaska during 2001 and 2002. Growth potential was not significantly higher in 2002 than in 2001 at an alpha level of 0.05 (P=0.073). Average differences in growth potential across habitats were minimal (slope habitat=0.844 g d⁻¹, shelf habitat=0.806 g d⁻¹, offshore habitat=0.820 g d⁻¹, and nearshore habitat=0.703 g d⁻¹) and not significantly different (P=0.630). Consumption demand differed significantly between hatchery and wild stocks (P=0.035) when examined within year due to the interaction between hatchery verses wild origin and year. However, the overall effect of origin across years was not significant (P=0.705) due to similar total amounts of prey consumed by all juvenile pink salmon in both study years. We anticipated that years in which ocean survival was high would have had high growth potential, but this relationship did not prove to be true. Therefore, modeled growth potential may not be useful as a tool for forecasting survival of Prince William Sound hatchery pink salmon stocks. Significant differences in consumption demand and a two-fold difference in nearshore abundance during 2001 of hatchery and wild pink salmon confirmed the existence of strong and variable interannual competition and the importance of the nearshore region as being a potential competitive bottleneck.     

Particulate organic carbon in the global ocean derived from SeaWiFS ocean color

Satellite remote sensing offers new means of quantifying particulate organic carbon, POC, concentration over large oceanic areas. From SeaWiFS ocean color, we derived 10-year data of POC concentration in the surface waters of the global ocean. The 10-year time series of the global and basin scale average surface POC concentration do not display any significant long-term trends. The annual mean surface POC concentration and its seasonal amplitude are highest in the North Atlantic and lowest in the South Pacific, when compared to other ocean basins. POC anomalies in the North Atlantic, North Pacific, and global concentrations seem to be inversely correlated with El Niño index, but longer time series are needed to confirm this relationship. Quantitative estimates of POC reservoir in the oceanic surface layer depend on the choice of what should represent this layer. Global average POC biomass is 1.34 g m^?2 if integrated over one optical depth, 3.62 g m^?2 if integrated over mixed layer depth, and up to 6.41 g m^?2 if integrated over 200-m layer depth (when assumed POC concentration below MLD is 20 mg m^?3). The global estimate of total POC reservoir in the surface 200-m layer of the ocean is 228.61×10¹³ g. We expect that future estimates of POC reservoir may be even larger, when more precise calculations account for deep-water organic-matter maxima in oligotrophic regions, and POC biomass located just below the seasonal mixed layer in spring and summer in the temperate regions.     

Isotopic constraints on the Si-biogeochemical cycle of the Antarctic Zone in the Kerguelen area (KEOPS)

Estimation of the silicon (Si) mass balance in the ocean from direct measurements (Si uptake-dissolution rates …) is plagued by the strong temporal and spatial variability of the surface ocean as well as methodological artifacts. Tracers with different sensitivities toward physical and biological processes would be of great complementary use. Silicon isotopic composition is a promising proxy to improve constraints on the Si-biogeochemical cycle, since it integrates over longer timescales in comparison with direct measurements and since the isotopic balance allows to resolve the processes involved, i.e. uptake, dissolution, mixing. Si-isotopic signatures of seawater Si(OH)₄ and biogenic silica (bSiO₂) were investigated in late summer 2005 during the KEOPS experiment, focusing on two contrasting biogeochemical areas in the Antarctic Zone: a natural iron-fertilized area above the Kerguelen Plateau (< 500 m water depth) and the High Nutrient Low Chlorophyll area (HNLC) east of the plateau (> 1000 m water depth). For the HNLC area the Si-isotopic constraint identified Upper Circumpolar Deep Water as being the ultimate Si-source. The latter supplies summer mixed layer with 4.0 ± 0.7 mol Si m^? 2 yr^? 1. This supply must be equivalent to the net annual bSiO₂ production and exceeds the seasonal depletion as estimated from a simple mixed layer mass balance (2.5 ± 0.2 mol Si m^? 2 yr^? 1). This discrepancy reveals that some 1.5 ± 0.7 mol Si m^? 2 yr^? 1 must be supplied to the mixed layer during the stratification period. For the fertilized plateau bloom area, a low apparent mixed layer isotopic fractionation value (?³⁰Si) probably reflects (1) a significant impact of bSiO₂ dissolution, enriching the bSiO₂ pool in heavy isotope; and/or (2) a high Si uptake over supply ratio in mixed layer at the beginning of the bloom, following an initial closed system operating mode, which, however, becomes supplied toward the end of the bloom (low Si uptake over supply ratio) with isotopically light Si(OH)₄ from below when the surface Si(OH)₄ pool is significantly depleted. We estimated a net integrated bSiO₂ production of 10.5 ± 1.4 mol Si m^? 2 yr^? 1 in the AASW above the plateau, which includes a significant contribution of bSiO₂ production below the euphotic layer. However, advection which could be significant for this area has not been taken into account in the latter estimation based on a 1D approach of the plateau system. Finally, combining the KEOPS Si-isotopic data with those from previous studies, we refined the average Si-isotopic fractionation factor to ? 1.2 ± 0.2‰ for the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.     

Estimates of primary production by remote sensing in the Arctic Ocean: Assessment of accuracy with passive and active sensors

The Arctic Ocean, including its regional shelf seas, is assumed to play an important role in the global carbon cycle. However, the true magnitude of annual production is unknown, as in situ data are sparse in time and space. Remote sensing technology has the potential to provide large scale estimates of phytoplankton biomass at much higher frequency and spatial coverage than shipboard observations in this remote region. Subsurface peaks in both biomass and primary production (PP), which are the characteristics of the Arctic, are shown to limit the reliability of ocean color based integrated PP (IPP) models in the Chukchi Sea. Here we report that the retrievals of IPP from remotely sensed ocean color data were accurate only when limited to 1.2 optical depths, which severely constrains the utility of ocean color remote sensing for the assessment of Arctic Ocean dynamics.Active sensors such as LIDAR, can, in combination with passive ocean color, dramatically improve our ability to estimate IPP for the Arctic. IPP retrievals were improved to within a factor of 2–3 of the measured values, when the vertical distribution of Chl a was determined to a resolution of 1 m using modeled LIDAR retrievals of the beam attenuation coefficient. This was far better than models using only passive ocean color. The instrument specifications of the current NASA spaceborne LIDAR (CALIOP) allow for the retrieval of K_d at a depth resolution of 23 m. Even with this constraint, however, the accuracy of the modeled IPP was improved over passive ocean color retrievals to approximately a factor of 3. The Arctic is a perfect location to merge ocean color and LIDAR measurements as the polar orbit of CALIOP provides complete grid coverage of the area every 8 days, crossing the horizontal gradients in Chl a already known to exist from passive ocean color observations.     

Tidally driven mixing in a numerical model of the ocean general circulation

Astronomical data reveals that approximately 3.5 terawatts (TW) of tidal energy is dissipated in the ocean. Tidal models and satellite altimetry suggest that 1 TW of this energy is converted from the barotropic to internal tides in the deep ocean, predominantly around regions of rough topography such as mid-ocean ridges. A global tidal model is used to compute turbulent energy levels associated with the dissipation of internal tides, and the diapycnal mixing supported by this energy flux is computed using a simple parameterization.The mixing parameterization has been incorporated into a coarse resolution numerical model of the global ocean. This parameterization offers an energetically consistent and practical means of improving the representation of ocean mixing processes in climate models. Novel features of this implementation are that the model explicitly accounts for the tidal energy source for mixing, and that the mixing evolves both spatially and temporally with the model state. At equilibrium, the globally averaged diffusivity profile ranges from 0.3 cm² s⁻¹ at thermocline depths to 7.7 cm² s⁻¹ in the abyss with a depth average of 0.9 cm² s⁻¹, in close agreement with inferences from global balances. Water properties are strongly influenced by the combination of weak mixing in the main thermocline and enhanced mixing in the deep ocean. Climatological comparisons show that the parameterized mixing scheme results in a substantial reduction of temperature/salinity bias relative to model solutions with either a uniform vertical diffusivity of 0.9 cm² s⁻¹ or a horizontally uniform bottom-intensified arctangent mixing profile. This suggests that spatially varying bottom intensified mixing is an essential component of the balances required for the maintenance of the ocean’s abyssal stratification.     

Diagnosis of vertical velocities with the QG omega equation: an examination of the errors due to sampling strategy

Vertical motion at the mesoscale plays a key role in ocean circulation, ocean-atmosphere interaction, and hence climate. It is not yet possible to make direct Eulerian measurements of vertical velocities less than 1000 m day⁻¹. However, by assuming quasi-geostrophic (QG) balance, vertical velocities O (10 m day⁻¹) can be diagnosed from the geostrophic velocity field and suitable boundary conditions. Significant errors in the accuracy of this diagnosis arise from the necessary compromise between spatial resolution and synopticity of a hydrographic survey. This problem has been addressed by sampling the output of a numerical ocean model to simulate typical oceanographic surveys of mesoscale fronts. The balance between the number of observations and the synopticity of observations affects the apparent flow and in particular the diagnosed vertical motion. A combination of effects can typically lead to errors of 85% in the estimation of net vertical heat flux. An analytical two-layer model is used to understand components of this error and indicate the key parameters for the design of mesoscale sampling.     

Using stochastic population process models to predict the impact of climate change

More than ten years ago a paper was published in which stochastic population process models were fitted to time series of two marine polychaete species in the western Wadden Sea, The Netherlands (Van der Meer et al., 2000). For the predator species, model fits pointed to a strong effect of average sea surface winter temperature on the population dynamics, and one-year ahead model forecasts correlated well with true observations (r = 0.90). During the last decade a pronounced warming of the area occurred. Average winter temperature increased with 0.9 °C. Here we show that despite the high goodness-of-fit whilst using the original dataset, predictive capability of the models for the recent warm period was poor.