印度洋偶极子及其可预报性研究进展

主要介绍印度洋偶极子(IOD)的时空特征、演变机制和可预报性的研究进展。IOD是东西热带印度洋反相的海温异常,是热带印度洋的年际海温变率最主要的两种异常结构之一。关于IOD的演变机制,特别是ENSO在其中所起作用,一直是学界争论的热点。一些学者认为,IOD是ENSO通过遥相关作用对热带印度洋造成的影响;另一些学者则认为,IOD是热带印度洋内部海气振荡的产物。本研究重点讨论这两种观点的相关证据以及IOD与ENSO的关系。此外,现有多数模式对IOD的预报时效小于3~4个月,潜在的预报时效则大于5个月,但这些对IOD的可预报性研究尚处于起步阶段,还有很大发展空间。     

Effects of Interannual Variability in the Eastern Indian Ocean on the Indonesian Throughflow

The influences of the large-scale interannual variations in the eastern Indian Ocean on the variability of the Indonesian throughflow are investigated by using an ocean general circulation model, driven by the ERS satellite winds from July 1992 to June 1997. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the simulated surface dynamic height variability captures two dominant modes on an interannual time scale, which are quite consistent with the available observations. The first mode indicates large amplitude in the western tropical Pacific and has a strong relation to the El Niño events, while the second EOF exhibits the large amplitude in the eastern Indian Ocean. The simulated net Indonesian throughflow shows an interannual variation of amplitude of about 15 Sv, with large transport from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean during 1994/95 and small transport during 1992 and 1997. It turns out that the net throughflow variation shows a high correlation with the second EOF mode (r = 0.51) for the whole five-year simulation. On the other hand, the correlation with the first mode is rather low (r = ?0.07). However, the relative importance of the EOF modes to the throughflow variability changes with time. The upper-layer transport above a depth of 230 m in the Indonesian archipelago is also affected by the second mode. The difference in the upper-layer transport across 1°S and 110°E generates warm water convergence/divergence with a magnitude of 4 Sv within the Indonesian Seas on the interannual time scale, which shows good correspondence with sea surface temperature variation averaged over the Indonesian archipelago.     

2000—2017年东印度洋季风带海域温度锋时空特征变化分析

基于2000-2017年的MODIS-Terra气候态月平均海表温度数据检测了东印度洋季风带海域的温度锋,统计了各锋面每月发生的锋点数量、锋面平均强度及中心线长度,并基于2000—2017年逐年海表温度数据,研究了以恒河-雅鲁藏布江河口锋和爪哇岛锋为代表的典型温度锋面的年际变化。结果发现:在3、4月,东印度洋季风带海域的锋面最弱、数量最少;5-10月期间,5°~15°N及5°~15°S一带的温度锋出现并发展;12、1、2月最北部锋面发展并趋向成熟。研究区存在恒河-雅鲁藏布江河口锋、爪哇岛锋、Palk海峡锋、东锡兰锋及伊洛瓦底江河口锋5个温度锋,其中最北部的恒河-雅鲁藏布江河口锋全年存在,东北季风时期长度较长,强度较大,最南部的爪哇岛锋存在于4—11月,西南季风时期较强,长度和数量也处于较高水平,其余锋面主要发生于西南季风盛行时期,且强度、长度等变化相对较小。两个典型温度锋空间位置的年际变化均不大,恒河-雅鲁藏布江河口锋平均强度的年际变化较大,最大超过0.03℃/km,长度变化相对较小;爪哇岛锋平均强度的变化相对平稳,但锋点数量和中心线长度存在较大的年际变化。     

2013年赤道波动调制下的东印度洋春季Wyrtki急流季节内变化研究

A strong spring Wyrtki jet(WJ) presents in May 2013 in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. The entire buildup and retreat processes of the spring WJ were well captured by two adjacent Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers mounted on the mooring systems. The observed zonal jet behaved as one intraseasonal event with the significant features of abrupt emergence as well as slow disappearance. Further research illustrate that the pronounced surface westerly wind burst during late-April to mid-May, associated with the active phase of a robust eastwardpropagating Madden–Julian oscillation in the tropical Indian Ocean, was the dominant reason for the rapid acceleration of surface WJ. In contrasting, the governing mechanism for the jet termination was equatorial wave dynamics rather than wind forcing. The decomposition analysis of equatorial waves and the corresponding changes in the ocean thermocline demonstrated that strong WJ was produced rapidly by the wind-generated oceanic downwelling equatorial Kelvin wave and was terminated subsequently by the westward-propagating equatorial Rossby wave reflecting from eastern boundaries of the Indian Ocean.     

热带印度洋降水的年际变化特征分析

对热带印度洋海区逐月降水资料的分析表明,热带印度洋海区降水年际变化的主要特征表现为东、西方向反位相的偶极子模态,该模态与热带印度洋海区低空纬向风场异常有较强的相关,并且与太平洋ENSO事件存在显著相关。另外对偶极子型降水主要模态的周期分析表明,偶极子型降水距平还存在1.5 a和4 a左右的变化周期。     

热带印度洋偶极子发生和演变机制的数值研究

对中国科学院大气物理研究所(IAP)大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)发展的第三代海洋模式(L30T63 OGCM)进行了改进。分析了该模式1959年1月—1998年12月的40a积分结果，以此研究热带印度洋偶极子发生、发展和消亡的物理机制。对数值模拟结果的分析表明，赤道印度洋表面异常东风引起的异常环流结构是偶极子发生、发展的主要动力学原因，其表面异常东风转换为异常西风所引起的异常环流结构调整是偶极子消亡的主要动力学原因；海气界面热通量异常的交换对热带印度洋海表温度距平偶极子模态的形成和演变起着重要的作用；垂直输送作用是热带印度洋次表层海温偶极子模态发生和演变的主要物理机制。     

南印度洋热带气旋快速增强事件气候特征及其年际变率

利用美国联合台风预警中心的热带气旋最佳路径数据集、美国国家海洋和大气管理局的扩展重构海表温度数据、全球海洋数据同化系统的温度、盐度数据及美国国家环境预报中心/国家大气研究中心的再分析资料, 分析了1981—2019年南印度洋热带气旋快速增强事件的气候特征和年际变率。结果表明, 南印度洋热带气旋快速增强事件产生频率呈现单峰分布, 主要产生在每年的12月至次年4月。南印度洋热带气旋增强事件的产生位置呈带状分布, 其中3个高值中心分别位于马达加斯加岛东北海域、南印度洋中部海域和澳大利亚西北海域, 这主要是由于热带气旋热潜和垂直风切变两个大尺度环境变量决定的。年际变率方面, 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动对南印度洋热带气旋增强事件产生频率的调制作用是不对称的, 厄尔尼诺年与拉尼娜年南印度洋热带气旋快速增强事件均减少, 但使其减少的物理机制不同。厄尔尼诺年, 热带气旋快速增强事件减少主要是较高的垂直风切变造成的; 拉尼娜年, 热带气旋快速增强事件减少主要是由于热带气旋热潜的降低, 而海表温度、垂直风切变和相对湿度也存在一定贡献。     

南海冬季海浪的时空变率特征

The spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the waves in the South China Sea(SCS) in the boreal winter during the period of 1979/1980–2011/2012 have been investigated based on the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts interim(ERA-Interim) reanalysis dataset. The results show that the leading mode of significant wave height anomalies(SWHA) in the SCS exhibits significant interannual variation and a decadal shift around the mid-1990 s, and features a basin-wide pattern in the entire SCS with a center located in the west of the Luzon Strait. The decadal change from a weak regime to a strong regime is mainly associated with the enhancement of winter monsoon modulated by the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO). The interannual variation of the SWHA has a significant negative correlation with the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation(ENSO) in the same season and the preceding autumn. For a better understanding of the physical mechanism between the SCS ocean waves and ENSO, further investigation is made by analyzing atmospheric circulation. The impact of the ENSO on the SWHA over the SCS is bridged by the East Asian winter monsoon and Pacific-East Asian teleconnection in the lower troposphere. During the El Ni?o(La Ni?a), the anomalous Philippine Sea anticyclone(cyclone) dominates over the Western North Pacific, helps to weaken(enhance) East Asian winter monsoon and then emerges the negative(positive) SWHA in the SCS.     

南印度洋海表温度距平冬季重现特征与机制的初步分析

本文主要利用1958–2016年GECCO2等资料通过超前/滞后相关分析方法,分析了南印度洋海表温度距平（SSTA）冬季−冬季重现的时空特征,并探讨了海洋和大气强迫对其形成的贡献。结果显示,SSTA冬季−冬季重现主要发生在南印度洋15ºS以南海域,特别是在马达加斯加岛至澳大利亚西南部之间的海域（15º～45ºS,70º～100ºE）重现信号最为显著。重现信号除了主要发生在次年冬季外,在部分海域重现信号发生较早,可在次年秋季发生并持续至随后的冬季。进一步分析表明,混合层深度冬深夏浅的变化（即海洋重现机制）是研究海域SSTA冬季重现的主因。另外,在马达加斯加岛南部海域和澳大利亚西南部海域海面净热通量对SSTA的重现也有直接的贡献。     

印度洋海底压强的季节和长期变化

利用2003—2015年的重力恢复和气候实验(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE)卫星观测数据, 揭示了印度洋海底压强的变化特征, 并探讨了其变化机制。结果表明, 印度洋海底压强具有显著的季节变化特征, 北半球冬季在40°S以北(南), 海底压强呈负(正)异常, 夏季分布与冬季相反。印度洋区域的海底压强空间分布与Ekman输送空间分布有较好的对应关系。正压涡度方程诊断结果表明, 利用风场重构的海底压强能够较好地解释印度洋海底压强的季节和长期变化。此外, 海平面变化收支分析表明, 海底压强的变化在高纬度区域主导了海平面变化。     

东南印度洋沿岸海温年代际振荡及经向传播探讨

用SODA资料分析了热带西南印度洋上升区温度距平与整个南印度洋温度距平的时滞相关, 发现热带西南印度洋上升区温度距平与65°S, 105°E附近200 m深度的温度距平存在滞后10 a的相关振荡, 同时探讨了其可能的机制为温跃层内的斜压内波驱动, 即65°S, 105°E附近200 m深度的温度距平沿着温跃层上层在东南印度洋沿岸从高纬度向低纬的传播, 传播时间大约为10 a左右, 这种信号在传播过程中表现得较弱, 而在起点和终点的两端振荡比较强。波动的传播相比振荡本身要显得弱。     

东印度洋细菌类群水平与垂直分布初探

作为海洋食物网的重要组成部分,微生物在海洋的生物化学循环以及能量和元素流动中起着重要的作用。目前对东印度洋中微生物的种群结构和分布知之甚少。本研究运用分子生物学手段,包括多聚酶链式反应-变形梯度凝胶电泳(PCR-DGGE)技术和高通量测序技术,对东印度洋的赤道区域以及邻近的孟加拉湾区域水体中细菌的16S rRNA基因进行了探索。结果表明,Bacteroidetes, Proteobacteria (Alpha和Gamma类群), Actinobacteria, Cyanobacteria和Planctomycetes为研究区域微生物的主要类群。通过PCR-DGGE,发现微生物类群具有显著的水平分布模式;进一步的高通量测序的结果更加清晰的显示出细菌类群的垂直分布模式:相对其他两层,Cyanobacteria和Actinobacteria在25米水层出现更多;Bacteroidetes在25m和150m为主要类群,而在75m水层相对较少;Proteobacteria (主要为Alphaproteobacteria)类群在75m水层为优势类群。随着水层的加深,不同站位的细菌类群组成趋于一致。结果表明高通量测序能够把占据微小部分的微生物类群区分出来。本研究是针对东印度洋水体中细菌的水平和垂直分布以及多样性信息的首次报道,研究结果对于进一步发现潜在微生物功能类群以及探索这些微生物在东印度洋中的能量和物质循环中的作用有所帮助。     

Influence of Coupled Rossby Waves on Primary Productivity and Tuna Abundance in the Indian Ocean

Interannual coupled Rossby waves in the extratropical Indian Ocean propagate westward in covarying pycnocline depth, sea surface temperature, and meridional surface wind anomalies from the west coast of Australia between 15°S and 35°S, taking 3–4 years to transit the interior ocean to Madagascar. In the interior subtropical gyre, where the tuna longline catch (TLC) mainly concerns two species (albacore and bigeye), these waves have been observed to affect year-to-year changes in catch, with wave crests (troughs) in the main pycnocline associated with high (low) TLC anomalies. This suggested that tuna longline catch is associated with the entrainment of nutrient-rich pycnocline water into the photic zone and a subsequent increase in primary productivity there. Here, this hypothesis is examined within the context of SeaWiFS chlorophyll concentration (CC). We find the situation the opposite of that expected, with wave crests (troughs) in the main pycnocline associated with low (high) CC anomalies averaged over the photic zone. These results are shown to be consistent with a model relating the anomalous CC tendency to upper-layer divergence in the wave, not unlike that relating surface slicks to upper-layer divergence in internal gravity waves. Thus, the connection between interannual coupled Rossby waves and TLC in the interior subtropical gyre does not appear to derive from wave-induced modulation of the pelagic food web. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Statistical characteristics and mechanisms of mesoscale eddies in the North Indian Ocean

The statistical characteristics and mechanisms of mesoscale eddies in the North Indian Ocean are investigated by adopting multi-sensor satellite data from 1993 to 2019. In the Arabian Sea(AS), seasonal variation of eddy characteristics is remarkable, while the intraseasonal variability caused by planetary waves is crucial in the Bay of Bengal(BOB). Seasonal variation of the eddy kinetic energy(EKE) is distinct along the west boundary of AS,especially in the Somali Current region. In the BOB, lar...     

Energetics of the Tsunami of 26 December 2004 in the Indian Ocean: A Brief Review

The energetics of the most destructive tsunami in historical time, and that of the under ocean earthquake that triggered this tsunami of 26 December 2004 in the Indian Ocean have been briefly reviewed. This latest tsunami has several other unique characteristics besides being one of the worst natural disasters in human history. It is the first truly global tsunami after modern seismographic and sea level monitoring networks have been put in place. It was the first tsunami on record detected by a satellite, even though at present, global satellite coverage of the oceans for real time tsunami detection is not adequate. Finally, the energy associated with the tsunami and the earthquake that triggered it is so large that speculation has been made about the normal modes of oscillation of the earth, that were triggered by the earthquake as well as some suggestions, that some of the earth's rotational characteristics may have temporarily changed to a discernible degree. Here, we briefly review the energetics of the tsunami and the earthquake that triggered it.     

北印度洋越赤道经向翻转环流的年际变化

利用50a(1950~1999)的SODA资料对北印度洋(7°S以北)越赤道的经向翻转环流及其年际变化进行了研究。结果表明,就年平均而言,上层向北的入流在越过赤道后最终通过Ekman层向南返回构成环流圈;在赤道附近的混合层,表层存在与Ekman流相反的流动。向北的入流主要通过西边界流实现,深度可达500m,向南的流动在西部较强。此环流有很明显的年际变化,周期约为4a;它的变化与海面风应力的变化是密切相关的。提出了反映此环流年际变化的2个指数。     

全球大洋潮汐模式在北印度洋潮汐预报准确性的评估

为评估DTU10、TPXO8、GOT00.2和NAO.99b 4个全球大洋潮汐模式对北印度洋潮汐的预报能力,采用英国海洋资料中心提供的海区中部和沿岸站潮汐调和常数资料,检验了这些模式4个主要分潮(M_2、S_2、K_1、O_1)的准确度。它们的各分潮调和常数资料准确度都比较高,振幅绝均差的最大值仅5.61 cm,迟角绝均差的最大值仅9.13°。这些模式的调和常数给出潮波传播特征差别不大。基于这些模式提供的调和常数,分别建立了北印度洋4、8和16分潮潮汐预报模型,将预报结果与中国海事服务网提供的沿岸24个站潮汐表资料进行对比。各模式的8分潮(M_2、S_2、N_2、K_2、K_1、O_1、P_1、Q_1)潮汐预报模型均优于4分潮(M_2、S_2、K_1、O_1)潮汐预报模型,NAO.99b模式可以提供16分潮(M_2、S_2、N_2、K_2、K_1、O_1、P_1、Q_1、MU_2、NU_2、T_2、L_2、2N_2、J_1、M1、OO_1)潮汐预报模型,但是对预报结果改善不明显;在各模式中,GOT00.2模式的8分潮潮汐预报模型对北印度洋沿岸的预报效果最好,平均绝均差为14.97 cm。     

基于WOA18数据集的印度洋等密度面年代际变化研究

基于WOA18(World Ocean Atlas)温盐数据集,分析印度洋等密度面的气候态分布,而后选取1985—1994年、1995—2004年和2005—2017年3个时段,分析等密度面的年代际变化。研究给出了11个等密度面深度的气候态分布,其中σ₀=26.00 kg/m³的等密度面(参考压强为0 dbar)在 40°S附近露头,随着位势密度的增大,等密度面露头区逐渐南移直至消失;位势密度大于σ₀=26.95kg/m³且小于等于σ₂=37.00kg/m³的等密度面最深处均位于马达加斯加南侧,在北印度洋的深度变化不大。重点分析了σ₀=26.00 kg/m³,σ₁=31.87 kg/m³(参考压强为1 000 dbar),σ₂=36.805 kg/m³(参考压强为2 000 dbar)3个等密度面深度和盐度的年代际变化,研究表明两者均存在显著的年代际变化。对于σ₀=26.00kg/m³等密度面,深度先变浅后加深,年代际变化主要位于30°S—40°S(等密度面深度快速变化区);等密度面盐度在1995—2004年和1985—1994年的差异与2005—2017年和1995—2004年的差异中基本呈现相反的变化。 σ₁=31.87kg/m³和σ₂=36.805kg/m³的等密度面深度年代际变化都集中于40°S—50°S海域;总体上盐度的年代际变化前者表现为减小,后者表现为增加。     

Comparison of Grid Averaged Altimeter and Buoy Significant Wave Heights in the Northern Indian Ocean

A quantitative comparison of the collocated inter-annual significant wave height (SWH) data collected between 2006 and 2009 from buoys and altimeters at nine buoy locations (total n = 2241) in the Northern Indian Ocean is attempted for assessing the validity of daily averaged gridded altimeter significant wave height (ASWH) provided by AVISO for operational use. ASWH is underestimated by 0.20 m, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) is less than 0.30 m, the Scatter Index is less than 20%, and the correlation coefficient is greater than 0.90. Further, at three locations, the examination of the above statistics showed that the bias and RMSE is high during the southwest monsoon season compared with the Northeast monsoon. Scatter Index showed only slight variation (14–18%) for different ranges of SWH. The response of the daily average gridded ASWH data during extreme conditions (cyclones) in the vicinity of the buoy locations is poor at all compared buoy locations. The gridded ASWH from different satellite missions provided by AVISO can be used for basin scale validation experiments of the wave model and for climatological studies in the Indian Ocean, except during cyclone conditions.