玉树断裂活动性研究

通过实地考察和室内工作，对玉树断裂的活动性进行了分段研究。该断裂划分为３段：（１）西北段全新世以来活动强烈，以水平左旋活动为主，水平滑动速率达７．３ｍｍ／ａ，沿断裂带展布大量的古地震事件遗迹；（２）中段第四纪以来的主体活动时段在晚更新世以前，以正断层活动为主；（３）东南段全新世以来活动强烈，以水平左旋活动为主，水平滑动速率约５ｍｍ／ａ，沿断裂带分布有大量的古地震事件遗迹，历史上记载的最大地震为１８９６年的邓柯７．０级地震     

新疆库尔勒活动断裂和断层破裂段探讨

新疆南疆重镇库尔勒市及附近地区，至少分布着９条颇具规模的活动断裂。尤其斜切库尔勒市区北部的库尔勒断裂，新活动十分强烈。库尔勒断裂东段与兴地断裂西段很可能是连通的一条地震破裂段，两者均存在着丰富的多期次古地震事件的遗迹，为较稳定的断层“破裂单元”。该破裂段上现代地震活动异常平静，但发现了明显的蠕滑错开形迹。这种地震的发生与断层滑动不协调现象，说明断层运动受到了抑制，能量在某处得以积累，有酿成大震的条件和危险。     

南澳强震区北部断裂活动性与断层气异常的关系

南澳强震区北部柘林地区断层气的测试结果表明，北西向黄岗水断裂带的主干断裂断层气含量较高，次级断裂和其它方向断裂的断层气含量较低，根据断层气异常，结合断裂新活动的表现形式和地震分布特征，大致可将区内断裂的活动性划分为三类。     

龙泉山断裂带地震活动性浅析

通过对龙泉山断裂带东坡断裂和西坡断裂的地震活动性研究,表明该带是一条活断层。历史地震记载和现今地震活动均呈现沿断裂带分布,地震活动呈现周期性和南北跳迁的特点,近10年来地震监测资料表明该带地震活动在增强。     

南定河断裂带断层活动特征与古地震事件

南定河断裂带是滇西南地区一条重要的北东向断裂构造，它由东、西两分支断裂组成。本文根据沿断裂带发育的串珠状盆地展布、沉积物的分布以及第四纪地层的变动情况，分析了该断裂带的活动特征，西支断裂第四以来活动强烈且明显的差异性，东支断裂从晚第三纪末起已停止活动，对于这条缺少地震历史载和仪器记录的活动断层，古地地震研究也是一个进一步认识其活动强度的行之有效的方法。     

第四纪火山区活动构造的识别和地震危险性评价

在第四纪火山区作活动构造研究时需要仔细地区分岩浆原生构造，火山区非构造变动和真正的活动断裂。第四纪火山区晚更新世晚期以来不再活动的断裂不宜看成危险性断裂。第四纪火山可能发生中强地震，极少可能发生大地震。     

唐山断裂现代活动性研究

利用1984～2008年唐山台跨断层基线和水准数据,分时段研究断层的运动特征,计算出唐山断裂水平形变、垂直形变特征及断层活动速率。求解断层及周边地区的的应变特征和主应变方向,研究唐山断裂的活动特征。探讨唐山断裂活动与地震活动的关系。     

大同盆地内砂板梁上断裂新活动及其力学实验模拟

通过野外实地考察、野外现场力学实验及室内力学实验模拟断裂的新活动，来研究砂板梁新隆起的活动构造特征和类型。旨在从实验模拟与野外实践相结合的基础上，对活动构造，特别是对断裂新活动在第四纪松散沉积层中特殊的表现形式进行研究，寻找第四纪松散沉积层中断裂新活动的有效识别标志，这是准确判定断裂新活动的关键，对工程地质评价及区域性地震危险性分析有很好的实用价值     

成都平原最大可能地震能力估计

成都平原位于青藏高原的东南缘，紧靠龙门山推覆构造带。近代地壳运动，断裂活动和地震活动水平应介于青藏高原活动构造区和四川盆地弱活动构造区的过渡地带。本文从构造类比角度对成都平原的最大可能地震能力进行了评估；结果表明其最大可能地震能力高于该区的地震史载水平。其中，蒲江－新津－成都德阳断裂可达６±０．５级，大邑－彭县－绵竹隐伏断裂可达５．６级左右。     

镇江市活动断层探测项目主要断层活动性研究

镇江市是江苏省破坏性地震发生较多的地区。对镇江市主要发震断层开展活动性探测及地震危险性评价工作,查明其发震能力,对于镇江市防震减灾事业发展具有重要意义。对镇江市区威胁较大的主要隐伏断层有4条,分别为幕府山-焦山断裂、五峰山-西来桥断裂、丹徒-建山断裂、汝山-上会断裂。通过开展浅层人工地震勘探、钻孔联合地质剖面探测、野外地震地质调查等相关工作,评价4条断裂的活动历史、活动性质、规模、展布及最新活动时代。研究结果表明,幕府山-焦山断裂最新活动时代为中更新世晚期,丹徒-建山断裂最新活动时代为早更新世至中更新世早期,五峰山-西来桥断裂最新活动时代为中更新世,汝山-上会断裂为前第四纪断裂。幕府山-焦山断裂和五峰山-西来桥断裂是目标区具备一定发震能力、地震危险性较大的2条断裂;判断五峰山-西来桥断裂潜在地震的最大震级为6.0级,幕府山-焦山断裂潜在地震的最大震级为6.5级。     

Discussion on moment tensor solution and seismogenic structure of Ruichang-Yangxin earthquake on 10 September 2011

Ruichang-Yangxin earthquake is another moderate earthquake in Yangxin-Jiujiang area since 2005 Jiujiang-Ruichang M5.7 earthquake. In order to more understand the seismic activities in this area, we study the moment tensor solution and the seismogenic structure of the Ruichang-Yangxin earthquake. Precise earthquake relocation shows that the mainshock occurred on the southwestern part of the NE-trending fault and aftershocks are distributed not only along the NE-trending fault but also along its conjugated NW-trending fault. By comprehensive analysis on the earthquake distribution, characteristics of isoseismal curve, focal mechanism, and regional structure characteristics, it is inferred that this earthquake is caused by the NE-trending Tanlu fault. In addition, it has close relationship with the conjugated NW-trending fault as well. Many researches have shown that the junction area is the earthquake-prone area, and should be paid more attention to. And our study also proves this viewpoint.     

汶川M_s 8.0地震大震复发周期的研究进展

汶川Ms8.0地震发生在青藏高原东缘NE向龙门山断裂带上,造成以映秀、北川为中心的长达300km的同震地表破裂带.初步研究认为,龙门山断裂带大震复发属于特征地震模式.本文在考虑地形差异影响下,用有限元数值模拟方法对汶川地震的大震复发周期进行研究.初步结果表明:龙门山断裂带大震复发周期为3908～4482a,该结果与古地震、断层滑动法、地震矩率、GPS数据确定等给出的结果具有较好的一致性,为龙门山断裂带的地震活动性及地震危险性研究提供重要的定量依据.     

1927年古浪8级地震的破裂习性及破裂机制的数值模拟

1927年古浪8级地震是继1920年海原8．5级地震之后发生在海原一祁连山断裂带上的另一次特大地震。对这次地震的破裂习性，前人的研究结果存在较大分歧。本文在多探槽揭露和地面追踪调查基础上，结合相关的历史资料分析后，认为本次地震是由构成古浪推覆体的天桥沟一黄羊川断裂、皇城双塔断裂冬青顶断裂段以及武威一天祝隐伏断裂等共同作用的结果。对古浪推覆体平面和剖面变形机制的有限元数值模拟结果显示，其应力和应变的集中区主要分布在天桥沟一黄羊川断裂西段、皇城一双塔断裂冬青顶一带以及武威一天祝隐伏断裂和古浪一双塔断裂所在的古浪峡一带，这与地震地表破裂带的展布是一致的，同时也进一步说明了1927年古浪8级地震是该推覆体整体活动的结果。     

Application of fault diagnosis method in earthquake prediction

Thedevelopmentandthevariationoftheearthquakeprocessisaverycomplicatedoneandaffectedandlimitedbymanyfactors.Thekeyoftheaccuratepredictionistosetupadynamiccomprehensivepredictionmodelbasedonthecomprehensionoftheprecursorcharacteristicandtheattentionofthevariationwithtimeofthesefactors.Inthispaper,wetrytoapplythefaultdiagnosistectonictoeanhquakeprediction.Thefaultdiagnosistectonicisanapplicableboundaryscience.Thebasicideaistojudgeifthefaultoccurinthesystemandtodeterminewhereandwhenthefaultoccuran…     

Rupture Property of the 1927 Gulang Ms8.0 Earthquake and Numerical Simulation of Rupture Mechanism

INTRODUCTIONThe1927GulangMS8.0earthquake is a severe earthquake followed the HaiyuanMS8.5earthquake of1920inthe Qilian Mt._Hexi Corridor earthquake zone.The most severely hit region wasaround Gulang and Liangzhou(the present Wuwei)of Gansu Province,with a…     

THE ACTIVITY FEATURES OF XIADIAN FAULT ZONE REVEALED BY RONGJIABAO TRENCH AND ITS PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION

The time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the active faults based on the quantitative study of seismo-geology has the vital practical significance for the earthquake prevention and disaster management because it describes the seismic risk of active faults by the probability of an earthquake that increases with time and the predicted magnitude. The Poisson model used in the traditional probabilistic method contradicts with the activity characteristics of the fault, so it cannot be used directly to the potential earthquake risk evaluation of the active fault where the time elapsing from the last great earthquake is relatively short. That is to say, the present Poisson model might overestimate the potential earthquake risk of the Xiadian active fault zone in North China because the elapsed time after the historical M8 earthquake that occurred in 1679 is only 341a. Thus, based on paleoearthquake study and geomorphology survey in the field, as well as integrating the data provided by the previous scientists, this paper reveals two paleo-events occurring on the Xiadian active fault zone. The first event E₁ occurred in 1679 with magnitude M8 and ruptured the surface from Sanhe City of Hebei Province to Pinggu District of Beijing at about 341a BP, and the other happened in (4.89±0.68)ka BP(E₂). Our research also found that the average co-seismic displacement is ~(1.4±0.1)m, and the predicted maximum magnitude of the potential earthquake is 8.0. In addition, the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of great earthquakes for Xiadian active fault zone in the forthcoming 30a is performed based on Poisson model, Brownian time passage model(BPT), stochastic characteristic-slip model(SCS)and NB model to describe time-dependent features of the fault rupture source and its characteristic behavior. The research shows that the probability of strong earthquake in the forthcoming 30a along the Xiadian active fault zone is lower than previously thought, and the seismic hazard level estimated by Poisson model might be overestimated. This result is also helpful for the scientific earthquake potential estimation and earthquake disaster protection of the Xiadian active fault zone, and for the discussion on how to better apply the time-dependent probabilistic methods to the earthquake potential evaluation of active faults in eastern China.     

具有立交成因重复地震的有限元分析

应用有限元分析方法 ,分析计算了具有立交成因的原地重复地震的孕育机理 ,得出如下结论 :在第一个地震临震前 ,与发震断层平行立接的深部断层对发震断层有底劈作用 ,发震后深部断层会继续破裂传播 ,导致浅层的横向断层扭曲 ,从而使横向断层闭锁而孕育地震。     

Rupture Property of the 1927Gulang Ms8.0 Earthquake and Numerical Simulation of Rupture Mechanism1

The 1927 Gulang M_S8.0 earthquake is a severe earthquake that followed the Haiyuan M_S8.5 earthquake of 1920 in the Qilian Mt._Hexi Corridor earthquake zone. There are divergences of opinion in the previous studies about the rupture properties of the earthquake. Based on trenching and field investigation, and analysis of historical data, we hold that the earthquake resulted from the joint process of the Tianqiaogou_Huangyangchuan fault, Dongqingding segment of the Huangcheng_Shuangta fault and the Wuwei_Tianzhu buried fault, which constitute the Gulang nappe. By finite_element numerical simulation on the deformation mechanism of Gulang nappe, it is found that the stress and strain mainly concentrate in the western segment of the Tianqiaogou_Huangyangchuan fault, the Dongqingding segment of the Huangcheng_Shuangta fault, and the Gulangxia segment of the Wuwei_Tianzhu buried fault and the Gulang_Shuangta fault. The stress concentration coincides with the distribution of the earthquake surface rupture. It also proves that the earthquake is an outcome of the Gulang nappe activity as a whole.     

龙门山断裂带的贝尼奥夫应变分析

基于2011—2020年在龙门山地区发生的地震,分3个区段估算累积贝尼奥夫应变。结果表明,龙门山北段对九寨沟M_S7.0地震存在阶跃,震后一年内累积贝尼奥夫应变抬升量约为2 000×10~8;龙门山中段对芦山M_S7.0地震存在明显阶跃,震后一年内累积贝尼奥夫应变抬升量约为5 300×10~8。由此可以认为,龙门山中段与芦山地震有较高关联度,而其北段与九寨沟地震的关联度次之。这个抬升量是该区域构造运动与对应地震关联度的一个描述,这对于研究地震的动力源、孕震构造及发震机理有参考意义。另外,对累积贝尼奥夫应变时变斜率的研究结果还表明,累积贝尼奥夫应变的时变斜率在邻近地震前均存在降低的现象,这可能是震前应力松弛过程的表现,但这仅是一个初步研究,对其机理以及可否成为大地震孕育指标等问题还需要对更多震例作进一步研究。     

龙门山和鲜水河断裂带对区域构造加载作用的动态响应

为了研究汶川地震和鲜水河断裂带上的地震之间是否有触发作用及区域构造加载作用在这些地震发生过程中对应力场的影响.我们以汶川地震和鲜水河断裂带所在区域上的共7次地震为研究对象,区域构造加载作用由GPS速度边界近似,用分裂节点技术模拟上地壳地震的发生,并采用三维黏弹性有限元方法,模拟库仑应力的演化.研究结果表明:鲜水河断裂带上的地震震前积累的库仑应力的17%~38%来自区域构造加载的持续作用,其他的地震形变引起的库仑应力的积累约占49%~67%,故地震触发作用明显(除1948年理塘地震和1973年炉霍地震外);而汶川地震震前1893—1981年发生的地震释放了该区部分库仑应力,不可能对汶川地震有触发作用.汶川地震的库仑应力积累可能主要来自区域构造加载作用,地震发生以后几乎释放了所在区域的所有库仑应力,形成新的格局.