Site class mapping based on earthquake ground motion data recorded by regional seismographic network

This paper presents a methodology for site class mapping in regions without adequate geotechnical, geologic and geomorphologic data, which is prevailing in many less developed regions globally. The proposed methodology is based primarily on analysis of earthquake ground motion data recorded by regional seismographic network. Three analysis methods independently developed have been adopted with appropriate weightings, from which a continuous value of site class index ranging from 1 to 4 could be assigned to each station. Finally, a regional site class map could be developed by applying an interpolation procedure across all stations of the seismographic network of which the site classes were estimated.     

区域生态风险评价

生态风险评价是伴随着环境管理目标和环境观念的转变而逐渐兴起并得到发展的一个新的研究领域，它区别于生态影响评价的重要特征在于其强调不稳定性因素的作用，区域生态风险评价所涉及的风险源以及评价受体等都在区域内具有空间异质性，因而比一般生态风险评价更复杂。通过讨论区域生态风险评价的特点和方法论基础，对有关概念和评价的方法步骤进行了理论探讨。     

中国大陆现今构造变形GPS观测数据与速度场

利用 1991— 1999年间 36 2个全球定位系统 (GPS)测站的观测资料 ,初步获得了中国大陆及周边地区现今地壳水平运动的统一速度场。该速度场主要涵盖青藏高原 ,天山 ,塔里木、川滇 ,河西走廊 ,福建东南沿海等重要构造活动区 ,测定精度总体优于 2～ 3mm/a ,速度场站点的分布和测定精度基本上满足中国大陆现今构造变形和动力学研究的需求。现代大地测量第一次比较全面、定量地展示出中国大陆在周边板块作用下大幅度构造变形的图像 ,为模拟大陆岩石圈动力过程提供了基础性的运动学约束条件。     

Estimation of S-wave site response in and around Delhi region from weak motion data

Site response in and around Delhi is studied using digital seismograms recorded by a thirteen-station VSAT-based 24-bit digital Delhi telemetry network of the India Meteorological Department. Nine local (M _l ≥ 2.3) and nine regional (M _l ≥ 3.9) earthquakes are selected for the estimation of site amplification factor using the classical standard spectral ratio for regional events (Ridge Delhi Observatory being the reference station), normalized standard spectral ratio for local events, horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio or receiver function and the generalized inversion techniques in the frequency range of 0.5 to 7.5 Hz. Site response curves at all the thirteen stations exhibit station to station variation of the site amplification factor reflecting the changes in geologic/geotectonic/soil conditions. A comparison of the site response values obtained by the generalized inversion with those computed using receiver function technique shows a large scatter even though the pattern of the curves remain more or less similar. However, the site effects computed by generalized inversion and standard spectral ratio exhibit a good 1:1 correspondence. The peaks yielded by all the methods have been observed to occur at the same frequencies. It is evident that the softer fluvial deposits of the newer alluvium of the east Yamuna sector show steeper site amplification gradient at lower frequencies, while the greater Delhi experiences moderate site amplification. The variation of site response corroborates the abrupt changes in intensity from one location to another due to local site condition.     

基于地面观测的遥感监测蒸散量验证方法研究

为了保证遥感监测蒸散量的准确性,需建立一套较完整的遥感监测蒸散量地面验证方法对其进行验证.通过由大孔径闪烁仪、涡动相关仪和自动气象站等组成的蒸散量观测系统可以获取不同卫星像元尺度蒸散量的地面观测值.自2002年以来,由海河流域的密云、馆陶、大兴及小汤山等站构建了一个不同卫星像元尺度蒸散量的观测站网,经过严格的观测数据处理与质量控制,获取了一大批卫星像元尺度蒸散量及其配套参数的地面观测值.同时,建立了一套基于地面观测的遥感监测蒸散量验证流程,重点对验证像元的选取以及评价指标的构建等进行探讨.依据上述验证流程,在海河流域的北京地区开展了遥感监测蒸散量的地面验证工作.利用2008年密云站和大兴站的大孔径闪烁仪观测数据,对基于MODIS数据估算的北京地区区域蒸散量进行验证.结果表明:这套基于大孔径闪烁仪观测数据的遥感监测蒸散量验证方法是合理、可行的.其中2008年北京地区遥感监测月、日蒸散量的均方差分别为13.75和0.91 mm,平均相对误差分别为22.79%、18.61%.     

Seismic events discrimination by neuro-fuzzy merging of signal and catalogue features

This article presents an original method for the classification of low magnitude seismic events recorded in France by a network of seismometers. Three types of events are discriminated: earthquakes, mining blasts and rock bursts. This method is based on a merging of catalogue measurements and possibly incomplete measurements deduced from several seismic signals related to the event. The merging is performed by a multi-layer neural network. A fuzzy coding is applied to the input characteristics of the neural network. It allows the network to integrate data imperfections during the learning phase. Then, it is possible to process efficiently incomplete data. The results are obtained on a database composed of all the 1,402 seismic events recorded between August 23^rd 1993 and May 30^th 1994. They show that the fuzzy coding and the merging of catalogue features and signal features extracted from several seismometers for each event increase the performance of correct classification to more than 90% even when the database contains missing values. The confusion rate between earthquakes and mining blasts is simultaneously reduced.     

Fault plane solutions of microearthquakes and small events in the Hellenic arc

The Hellenic arc is the most active seismic region of the transition zone between the African and Eurasian plates. In this rapidly deforming region, the physical state of the crust and upper mantle may vary laterally and vertically. However, a detailed 3D model of the region is lacking. The reliable determination of fault plane solutions is crucial if such a model is to be produced. On this basis, fault plane solutions have been determined from recent microearthquakes and small events to assess their reliability for use in tectonic interpretation. A search algorithm on first motion data and amplitude ratios and also a waveform-matching scheme were employed on data from our temporal network, operated on the western part of the island of Crete. There, a network of 47 three-component digital stations with an aperture of 60 km and an average station spacing of 5 km was operated in 1997. The majority of the shallow microearthquakes under Crete for which fault plane solutions were determined have a near horizontal T-axis oriented essentially E–W. Differences between well determined fault plane solutions from the search algorithm and the waveform-matching technique were significant (strike up to 45°, dip up to 10°, and slip up to 50°). Second, data of small events within the Hellenic subduction zone were obtained from recently installed broadband stations at local and regional distances and inverted for a deviatoric seismic moment tensor. Available solutions from other sources such as the Harvard group, EMSC, or SED show drastic differences in part. Owing to still limited azimuthal station coverage, the resulting fault plane solutions of small events have generally not been well constrained. The observed large variation of fault plane solutions for micoearthquakes and small events poses a caveat to tectonic interpretation in case of using data from a few stations only.     

Study of directivity effect on electromagnetic emissions in the HF band as earthquake precursors: Preliminary results on field observations

This work focuses on the use of electromagnetic emissions (EM) in the HF band as a warning event for earthquakes. EM at HF components 41 MHz and 46 MHz were monitored and recorded from eight field stations in Greece and correlated with seismological events. Directivity effect raised since EM emissions at specific station locations were correlated to earthquake events from prescribed regions. EM recordings during 1999 were used and by visual inspection were associated to most of the earthquake events greater than 5R. Using these observations a novel algorithm based on the ratio of short term to long term signal average, together with a prediction rules set derived from 1999's EM emissions study were developed to combine results from several field stations. Performance of the system was promising, but was dependent on the geographic area of interest. Overall performance for earthquakes events of magnitude greater than 5.7 R was 75% of seismic events were correctly predicted by EM activity, while 25% were not predicted.     

DEM支持下的梅雨区雨量站网规划研究

雨量站网是水文站网整体功能中极其重要的一个组成部分,雨量资料的准确性和代表性,将直接影响洪水预报的精度,科学地规划和优化雨量站网,使雨量资料最大程度地反映流域的实际降雨情况,可以大大提高洪水预报系统的精度。根据水文技术发展的现状,采用抽站法,基于GIS技术,加入地形、气象等下垫面因素综合考虑,对梅雨地区雨量站网进行优化研究。     

Comparison of statistical methods and multi-time validation for the determination of the shallow landslide rainfall thresholds

Shallow landslides are unforeseeable phenomena often resulting in critical conditions in terms of people’s safety and damage. The main purpose of this paper is the comparison of different statistical methods used to determine the rainfall thresholds for the shallow landslide occurrence. Rainfall data over a 46-year period were collected for one rain gauge located in a test area of northwest Italy (Riviera Spezzina; RS). In the RS, intense rainfalls often induce shallow landslides causing damage and sometimes casualties. The rainfall events occurred in the 1967–2006 period were classified as events inducing shallow landslides (SLEs_1967–2006) and events that did not trigger shallow landslides (NSLEs_1967–2006). Thresholds for various percentiles of SLEs_1967–2006 were computed by identifying the lower limit above which shallow landslides occurred. Another set of thresholds, corresponding to different probabilities of occurrence, was determined using SLEs_1967–2006 and NSLEs_1967–2006. The least-squares linear fit (LSF) and the quantile regression (QR) techniques were employed in the former approach, while the logistic regression (LR) was applied in the latter. The thresholds were validated with the same data used for their definition and with the data recorded in the 2008–2014 period. Contingency tables were created and contingencies and skill scores were computed. The 10% probability threshold obtained using the LR method is characterized by the best values of at least two skill scores for both periods considered; therefore, it may be considered the “best” threshold for the RS. The results of this work can help the choice of the best statistical method to determine the shallow landslide rainfall thresholds.     

多种地球物理场观测数据中亚失稳现象

20100124山西河津M4.8地震前,临汾地震台宽频倾斜仪记录到与实验室岩石破裂亚失稳过程类似图像,震源及附近地区也出现多项准同步性的短临异常。本文对这次地震前震源及附近地区多种地球物理场观测数据在发震断层黏滑失稳前不同阶段的变化特征进行了探讨。结果表明：1）震前记录到的亚失稳现象并非单点单测项,而是具有多点多物理场的群体性特征;2）这些异常出现的时间与临汾宽频倾斜仪记录的亚失稳事件时间基本同步,其形态上以大幅突变为主,时间上多集中在震前45 d左右,空间上主要集中在距震中100 km的范围内,且具有随时间从外围向震中区集中的特点;3）震前不仅在多种地球物理场观测数据中记录到类似亚失稳现象,而且在震前1~6 d一些地球物理场观测仪器还记录到与发震断层失稳前预滑有关的小事件;4）震前临汾宽频倾斜仪记录到的亚失稳现象、震源及附近地区出现多项准同步性的短临异常,是在震源及附近地区的区域应力场增强、介质特性发生改变的情况下出现的,可能与河津地震有关;5）震前多种地球物理场异常随时间推移显示出协同化的特点,即沿发震断裂方向有由外围向震中迁移和集中的特点。     

The RANSAC Method for Generating Fracture Networks from Micro-seismic Event Data

Fracture network modeling is an essential part of the design, development and performance assessment of Enhanced Geothermal Systems. These systems are created from geothermal resources, usually located several kilometers below the surface of the Earth, by establishing a network of connected fractures through which fluid can flow. The depth of the reservoir makes it impossible to make direct measurements of fractures and data are collected from indirect measurements such as geophysical surveys. An important source of indirect data is the seismic event point cloud generated by the fracture stimulation process. Locations of these points are estimated from recorded micro-seismic signals generated by fracture initiation, propagation and slip. This point cloud can be expressed as a set of three-dimensional coordinates with attributes, for example Se _ijk ={(x,y,z);?a|x,y,z∈R,?a∈I}. We describe two methods for reconstructing realistic fracture trace lines and planes given the point cloud of seismic events data: Enhanced Brute-Force Search and RANSAC. The methods have been tested on a synthetic data set and on the Habanero data set of Geodynamics’ geothermal project in the Cooper Basin of South Australia. Our results show that the RANSAC method is an efficient and suitable method for the conditional simulation of fracture networks.     

A preliminary seismic study of Taal Volcano,Luzon Island Philippines

The very active Taal Volcano lies in the southern part of Luzon Island only 60 km from Manila, the capital of the Philippines. In March 2008 we deployed a temporary seismic network around Taal that consisted of 8 three-component short period seismometers. This network recorded during the period from March to November 2008 about 1050 local events. In the early data processing stages, unexpected linear drifting of clock time was clearly identified for a number of stations. The drifting rates of each problematic station were determined and the errors were corrected before further processing. Initial location of each event was derived by manually picked P-/S-phases arrival times using HYPO71 and a general velocity model based on AK135. Since the velocity structure beneath Taal is essentially unknown, we used travel times of 338 well-located events in order to derive a minimum 1D velocity model using VELEST. The resulting locations show that most events occurred at the shallow depth beneath the Taal Volcano, and two major earthquake groups were noticed, with one lying underneath the western shore of Taal lake and the other one spread around the eastern flank of the Taal Volcano. Since there is no reported volcano activities during the operation period of our seismic array, we are still not confident to interpret these findings in terms of other natures of volcano at the current stage. However, our work represents an important pioneer step towards other more advanced seismic studies in Taal Volcano.     

VS crustal models of the Roccamonfina volcano and relationships with Neapolitan volcanoes (southern Italy)

Shear wave velocities of the crust and upper mantle are defined beneath the Roccamonfina volcano and surrounding Apennines (southern Italy) from the simultaneous nonlinear inversion of the local group velocity dispersion data, obtained from seismic events recorded in 1988–2004 at Roccamonfina station of the INGV-RSNC network, and regional dispersion data obtained in previous studies. The main features of the representative V_S models are a carbonatic basement and a low velocity zone at 6–10?km of depth. The sedimentary succession is ~5?km thick below the Roccamonfina volcano and lays above a high V_S (3.8?km/s) ascribable to solidified magma body, while it is ~10?km thick below the surrounding Apennines. A low velocity layer with an average thickness of 10?km is detected below the Roccamonfina volcano which can be associated with the presence of partial melting and interpreted as magmatic reservoir. Such low velocity layer, also found below the surrounding Apennines but with a reduced thickness of 2–3?km, extends to the Campanian Plain and to the Neapolitan volcanic area, from Campi Flegrei to Somma-Vesuvius.     

Characteristics of meteorological drought in Bangladesh

Meteorological drought events occur in Bangladesh are diagnosed using monthly rainfall and mean air temperature from the surface observations and Regional Climate Model (RegCM) by calculating Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the period 1961?C1990. The historical records of drought event obtained from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics and International Disaster Database are used to verify the SPI and PDSI detected events. The SPI and monthly PDSI are obtained for 27 station data across Bangladesh as well as for two subregions over the country. Result based on the observed data shows that regional information is better in drought diagnosis compared to the point information. The regional analysis is able to detect about 80?% of the drought events occurred during the study period. Frequency of moderate drought is higher for all over the country. The SPI calculated from RegCM rainfall shows that the detection of moderate drought events is 10, 7, and 21?% overestimated for 1-, 3-, and 6-month length, respectively, compared to using of observed data. For extreme drought cases, detection is overestimated (underestimated) by 25?% (79?%) for 1-month (6-month) length. The PDSI results for model and observed data are nearly same to SPI calculations. Model monthly PDSI result is overestimated (underestimated) by 29?% (50?%) for moderate (severe) drought events with reference to the observed PDSI. Hence, RegCM output may be useful to detect 3?C6-month (monthly to seasonal) length moderate drought events over a heavy rainfall region likely Bangladesh.     

Multivariate delineation of rainfall homogeneous regions for estimating quantiles of maximum daily rainfall: A case study of northwestern Mexico

Lack of data in maximum daily rainfall frequency analysis can generate ineffcient estimates for design purposes. An approach to diminish these errors is to apply regional estimation techniques, which require that all stations be located at the same homogeneous region. In this paper, a delineation of homogeneous precipitation regions was made based on the multivariate methods of principal component analysis and hierarchical ascending clustering. A region in northwestern Mexico was selected to apply this methodology. It was concluded that only the coeffcients of variation of the L-moments, along with latitude, longitude and altitude at each climatological station are sufficient to define the homogeneous rainfall regions, and that either the inclusion or exclusion of information in the regional techniques has a direct impact on the estimation of events associated to different return periods.     

Spectral analysis of climate cycles to predict rainfall induced landslides in the western Mediterranean (Majorca,Spain)

In the present work, spectral analysis has been applied to determine the presence and statistical significance of climate cycles in long-term data series from different rainfall and gauging stations located in the Tramuntana Range, in the north-western sector of the island of Majorca. Climate signals recorded previously in the Mediterranean region have been identified: the ENSO, NAO, HALE, QBO and Sun Spot cycles as well as others related to solar activity; the most powerful signals correspond to the annual cycle, followed by the 6-month and NAO cycles. The incorporation of data derived from gauging stations contributes to better climate signal detection as local and exceptional influences are eliminated. Simulations have been performed for each rainfall/gauging station, using the most significant climate cycles obtained by means of the power spectrum. A good correlation between rainfall/flow values and simulated cycles has been obtained. The NAO and ENSO cycles are the most influential in the rainy periods, and specifically the NAO cycle, where a good correlation between episodes of high rainfall/flow and high values of ANAOI can be observed. At a second stage, landslides dated and recorded in the Tramuntana Range since 1954 (174 events) have been correlated with the simulated cycles obtaining good results, as the landslide events match rainfall peaks well. The correlation for the past decade (since 2005), when a detailed landslide inventory is available, also reveals a coincidence between landslide events and climate cycles, and specifically NAO and ENSO cycles. That is the case of the period 2008–2010, when numerous mass movements took place, and when the largest movement of the inventory was recorded. Results show a potential rainy period in the Tramuntana Range for the coming years (with maximum values around year 2021), when conditions similar to those related to the 2008–2010 event could take place again. The methodology presented in this work can contribute to the prediction of temporal, extreme hydrological events in order to design short-/medium-term mitigation strategies on a regional scale.     

Evaluation and implications of seismic events in Garhwal-Kumaun region of Himalaya

The Garhwal-Kumaun region continues to accumulate the built-up of strain energy like the other regions of the Himalaya. But this sector unlike the other sectors is yet to release this accumulated strain energy which can be in the form of great earthquake. The region has sufficient strain energy to generate earthquake of M>8. The analysis of seven hundred ten local events recorded by ten station broad band network between August’07 to February’10 shows that most of the seismic events recorded in this region continue to occur from shallow depths (< 25 km). The evaluation of source parameters from p-wave spectral analysis indicates that the events have low stress drop values. The region continues to release energy in the form of smaller magnitude earthquakes. The epicentral location map indicates that Munsiari Thrust, which is located south of the Main Central Thrust is more active.     

山丹地应力监测站体应变仪的地震效应

本文简要介绍了山丹地应力监测台站的概况, 用多种方法对该台站安装的TYB-2000A体应变仪在2007年8月至2008年7月记录的174次肘M_s4.0~M_s8.6地震数据进行了处理与分析, 其中汶川地震及余震共85次, 并与其他台站记录的地震资料进行比对, 对记录的应变地震波、同震应变阶跃、地震前后地球自由振荡的变化及其所包含的物理意义等信息深入分析, 揭示出地震前后应变波的变化规律, 为今后的地震预测和灾害防治提供了科学依据.      

Recent seismicity and crustal stress field in the Lucanian Apennines and surrounding areas (Southern Italy): Seismotectonic implications

We analyzed the instrumental seismicity of Southern Italy in the area including the Lucanian Apennines and Bradano foredeep, making use of the most recent seismological data base available so far. P- and S-wave arrival times, recorded by the Italian National Seismic Network (RSNC) operated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), were re-picked along with those of the SAPTEX temporary array deployed in the region in the period 2001–2004. For some events located in the upper Val d'Agri, we also used data from the Eni-Agip oil company seismic network. We examined the seismicity occurred during the period between 2001 and 2006, considering 514 events with magnitudes M ≥ 2.0. We computed the V_P/V_S ratio obtaining a value of 1.83 and we carried out an analysis for the one-dimensional (1D) velocity model that approximates the seismic structure of the study area. Earthquakes were relocated and, for well- recorded events, we also computed 108 fault plane solutions. Finally, using 58 solutions, the most constrained, we computed regional stress field in the study area.Earthquake distribution shows three main seismic regions: the westernmost (Lucanian Apennines) characterized by high background seismicity, mostly with shallow hypocenters, the easternmost below the Bradano foredeep and the Murge with deeper and more scattered seismicity, and finally the more isolated and sparse seismicity localized in the Sila Range and in the offshore area along the northeastern Calabrian coast. Focal mechanisms computed in this work are in large part normal and strike-slip solutions and their tensional axes (T-axes) have a generalized NE–SW orientation. The denser station coverage allowed us to improve hypocenters determination compared to those obtained by using only RSNC data, for a better characterization of the crustal and subcrustal seismicity in the study area.