Fuzzy logic model approaches to daily pan evaporation estimation in western Turkey / Estimation de l’évaporation journalière du bac dans l’Ouest de la Turquie par des modèles à base de logique floue

Abstract

Abstract Evaporation is one of the fundamental elements in the hydrological cycle, which affects the yield of river basins, the capacity of reservoirs, the consumptive use of water by crops and the yield of underground supplies. In general, there are two approaches in the evaporation estimation, namely, direct and indirect. The indirect methods such as the Penman and Priestley-Taylor methods are based on meteorological variables, whereas the direct methods include the class A pan evaporation measurement as well as others such as class GGI-3000 pan and class U pan. The major difficulty in using a class A pan for the direct measurements arises because of the subsequent application of coefficients based on the measurements from a small tank to large bodies of open water. Such difficulties can be accommodated by fuzzy logic reasoning and models as alternative approaches to classical evaporation estimation formulations were applied to Lake Egirdir in the western part of Turkey. This study has three objectives: to develop fuzzy models for daily pan evaporation estimation from measured meteorological data, to compare the fuzzy models with the widely-used Penman method, and finally to evaluate the potential of fuzzy models in such applications. Among the measured meteorological variables used to implement the models of daily pan evaporation prediction are the daily observations of air and water temperatures, sunshine hours, solar radiation, air pressure, relative humidity and wind speed. Comparison of the classical and fuzzy logic models shows a better agreement between the fuzzy model estimations and measurements of daily pan evaporation than the Penman method.     

Dependence of evaporation on meteorological variables at different time-scales and intercomparison of estimation methods

This paper consists of two parts. In the first part, the significance of five major factors, including solar radiation, vapour pressure deficit, relative humidity, wind speed and air temperature, that control evaporation were evaluated comparatively at different time-scales using the data from Changines station in Switzerland. The comparative evaluation was made at hourly, daily, 10-day and monthly time-scales. It was found that the role of controlling variables in evaporation varied with the time-scale. The vapour pressure deficit was best correlated with pan evaporation at all time-scales, while the wind speed was least correlated with pan evaporation, especially when the time period was longer than a day. In the second part, four equations for calculating evaporation, including temperature-based methods, humidity-based methods, mass transfer methods and radiation-based methods, were compared with pan evaporation. Of these four equations, the Penman equation, representing the mass transfer method, resulted in monthly evaporation values that agreed most closely with pan evaporation values. The Romanenko equation, representing the humidity method, also compared reasonably well with pan evaporation. The Turc equation, representing the radiation method, and the Thornthwaite equation, representing the temperature method, were found to underestimate evaporation significantly, especially for cold months. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of 15 evaporation methods applied to a small mountain lake in the northeastern USA

Few detailed evaporation studies exist for small lakes or reservoirs in mountainous settings. A detailed evaporation study was conducted at Mirror Lake, a 0.15 km² lake in New Hampshire, northeastern USA, as part of a long-term investigation of lake hydrology. Evaporation was determined using 14 alternate evaporation methods during six open-water seasons and compared with values from the Bowen-ratio energy-budget (BREB) method, considered the standard. Values from the Priestley–Taylor, deBruin–Keijman, and Penman methods compared most favorably with BREB-determined values. Differences from BREB values averaged 0.19, 0.27, and 0.20 mm d⁻¹, respectively, and results were within 20% of BREB values during more than 90% of the 37 monthly comparison periods. All three methods require measurement of net radiation, air temperature, change in heat stored in the lake, and vapor pressure, making them relatively data intensive. Several of the methods had substantial bias when compared with BREB values and were subsequently modified to eliminate bias. Methods that rely only on measurement of air temperature, or air temperature and solar radiation, were relatively cost-effective options for measuring evaporation at this small New England lake, outperforming some methods that require measurement of a greater number of variables. It is likely that the atmosphere above Mirror Lake was affected by occasional formation of separation eddies on the lee side of nearby high terrain, although those influences do not appear to be significant to measured evaporation from the lake when averaged over monthly periods.     

Artificial neural networks and empirical equations to estimate daily evaporation: application to Lake Vegoritis,Greece

ABSTRACT

Evaporation is one of the most important components in the energy and water budgets of lakes and is a primary process of water loss from their surfaces. An artificial neural network (ANN) technique is used in this study to estimate daily evaporation from Lake Vegoritis in northern Greece and is compared with the classical empirical methods of Penman, Priestley-Taylor and the mass transfer method. Estimation of the evaporation over the lake is based on the energy budget method in combination with a mathematical model of water temperature distribution in the lake. Daily datasets of air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity, sunshine hours and evaporation are used for training and testing of ANN models. Several input combinations and different ANN architectures are tested to detect the most suitable model for predicting lake evaporation. The best structure obtained for the ANN evaporation model is 4-4-1, with root mean square error (RMSE) from 0.69 to 1.35 mm d^?1 and correlation coefficient from 0.79 to 0.92.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman

ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

A nonlinear function approach for the normalized complementary relationship evaporation model

A nonlinear function approach for the normalized complementary relationship evaporation model that is different from the methodology maintaining the symmetric complementary relationship with appropriate definitions of potential and wet‐environment evaporation is proposed and verified. This approach employs the definitions used in the advection‐aridity model, wherein the potential is estimated using the Penman equation. Normalized by Penman potential evaporation, the complementary relationship model is expressed as a function describing the relationship between the evaporation ratio (the ratio of the actual to the Penman potential evaporation) and the proportion of the radiation term in Penman potential evaporation. The new nonlinear function proposed in the current study is approximately equivalent to the advection‐aridity and the modified Granger models under conditions that are neither too wet nor too dry, but is more reasonable under arid and wet conditions. The new nonlinear function model performs well in estimating actual evaporation, as verified by the observed data from four sites under different land covers. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integration of Penman approach with complementary principle for evaporation research

Natural evaporation occurs with water transportation from an unsaturated land surface into an unsaturated atmosphere. The subprocesses at the land surface and in the atmosphere are one‐sidedly emphasized in the Penman approach and the complementary principle, in which the ratio of actual evaporation to the Penman potential evaporation is expressed as a function of the wetness state of the land surface and the atmosphere, respectively. The Penman approach and complementary principle can be integrated for completely conceptualizing the evaporation process, by expressing the evaporation ratio as a function of both the land surface and atmospheric wetness. The integrated approach has the potential to increase the accuracy of evaporation estimation while reducing the burdens of parameterization.     

Evaporation estimation on Lake Titicaca: a synthesis review and modelling

The aim of this study was to validate evaporation models that can be used for palaeo‐reconstructions of large lake water levels. Lake Titicaca, located in a high‐altitude semi‐arid tropical area in the northern Andean Altiplano, was the object of this case study. As annual evaporation is about 90% of lake output, the lake water balance depends heavily on the yearly and monthly evaporation flux. At the interannual scale, evaporation estimation presents great variability, ranging from 1350 to 1900 mm year^?1. It has been found that evaporation is closely related to lake rainfall by a decreasing relationship integrating the implicit effect of nebulosity and humidity. At the seasonal scale, two monthly evaporation data sets were used: pan observations and estimations derived from the lake energy budget. Comparison between these data sets shows that (i) there is one maximum per year for pan evaporation and two maxima per year for lake evaporation, and (ii) pan evaporation is greater than lake evaporation by about 100 mm year^?1. These differences, mainly due to a water depth scale factor, have been simulated with a simple thermal model θ_w(h, t) of a free‐surface water column. This shows that pan evaporation (h = 0·20 m) is strongly correlated with direct solar radiation, whereas the additional maximum of lake evaporation (h = 40 m) is related to the heat restitution towards the atmosphere from the water body at the end of summer. Finally, five monthly evaporation models were tested in order to obtain the optimal efficiency/complexity ratio. When the forcing variables are limited to those that are most readily available in the past, i.e. air temperature and solar radiation, the best results are obtained with the radiative Abtew model (r = 0·70) and with the Makkink radiative/air temperature model (r = 0·67). Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

鄱阳湖夏季水面蒸发与蒸发皿蒸发的比较

水面蒸发是湖泊水量平衡要素的重要组成部分.基于传统蒸发皿观测蒸发不能代表实际水面蒸发,而实际水面蒸发特征仍不清楚.本研究基于涡度相关系统观测的鄱阳湖水体实际水面蒸发过程,在小时和日尺度分析了水面蒸发的变化规律及其主要影响因子,并与蒸发皿蒸发进行比较.研究表明,实际水面蒸发日变化波动剧烈,变化范围在0~0.4 mm/h之间.水面蒸发的日变化特征主要受风速的影响.鄱阳湖8月份日水面蒸发量与蒸发皿蒸发量在总体趋势上具有很好的一致性.8月份平均日水面蒸发速率(5.90 mm/d)比蒸发皿蒸发速率(5.65 mm/d)高4.6%.水面日蒸发量与蒸发皿蒸发量的比值在8月上、中、下旬平均值分别为1.24、1.00、0.92,呈现下降的趋势.鄱阳湖夏季水面日蒸发量与风速和相对湿度相关性显著,而蒸发皿蒸发与净辐射、气温、饱和水汽压差和相对湿度均呈显著相关.这是由于蒸发皿水体容积小,与湖泊相比其水体热存储能力小,因此更容易受到环境因子的影响.     

Evaporation process modelling over northern Iran: application of an integrative data-intelligence model with the krill herd optimization algorithm

ABSTRACT

An integrated data-intelligence model based on multilayer perceptron (MLP) and krill herd optimization – the MLP-KH model – is presented for the estimation of daily pan evaporation. Daily climatological information collected from two meteorological stations in the northern region of Iran is used to compare the potential of the proposed model against classical MLP and support vector machine models. The integrated and the classical models were assessed based on different error and goodness-of-fit metrics. The quantitative results evidenced the capacity of the proposed MLP-KH model to estimate daily pan evaporation compared to the classical ones. For both weather stations, the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.725 and 0.855 mm/d, respectively, was obtained from the integrated model, while the RMSE for MLP was 1.088 and 1.197, and for SVM it was 1.096 and 1.290, respectively.     

Evaluation and generalization of radiation‐based methods for calculating evaporation

Eight radiation‐based equations for determining evaporation were evaluated and expressed in five generalized forms. Five evaporation equations (Abtew, Hargreaves, Makkink, Priestley and Taylor and Turc), where each represents one generalized form, were then compared with pan evaporation measured at Changins station in Switzerland. The comparison was first made using the original constant values involved in each equation, and then using the recalibrated constant values. Evaluation of the Priestley and Taylor equation requires net radiation data as input, in this study, net radiation was estimated using Equation (16) owing to the lack of observation data. The results showed that when the original constant values were used, large errors resulted for most of the equations. When recalibrated constant values were substituted for the original constant values, four of the five equations improved greatly, and all five equations performed well for determining mean annual evaporation. For seasonal and monthly evaporation, the Hargreaves and Turc equations showed a significant bias, especially for cold months. With properly determined constant values, the Makkink and modified Priestley and Taylor equations resulted in monthly evaporation values that agreed most closely with pan evaporation in the study region. The simple Abtew equation can also be used when other meteorological data except radiation are not available. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation and generalization of temperature‐based methods for calculating evaporation

Seven temperature‐based equations, each representing a typical form, were evaluated and compared for determining evaporation at two climatological stations (Rawson Lake and Atikokan) in north‐western Ontario, Canada. The comparison was first made using the original constant values involved in each equation, and then using the recalibrated constant values. The results show that when the original constant values were used, larger biases existed for most of the equations for both stations. When recalibrated constant values were substituted for the original constant values, six of the seven equations improved for both stations. Using locally calibrated parameter values, all seven equations worked well for determining mean seasonal evaporation values. For monthly evaporation values, the modified Blaney–Criddle method produced least error for all months for both stations, followed by the Hargreaves and Thornthwaite methods. The Linacre, Kharrufa and Hamon methods showed a significant bias in September for both stations. With properly determined constant values, the modified Blaney–Criddle, the Hargreaves and Thornthwaite methods can be recommended for estimating evaporation in the study region, as far as temperature‐based methods are concerned. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of potential evapotranspiration in the mountainous Panama Canal watershed

Spatially distributed hydrometeorological and plant information within the mountainous tropical Panama Canal watershed is used to estimate parameters of the Penman–Monteith evapotranspiration formulation. Hydrometeorological data from a few surface climate stations located at low elevations in the watershed are complemented by (a) typical wet‐ and dry‐season fields of temperature, wind, water vapour and pressure produced by a mesoscale atmospheric model with a 3 × 3 km² spatial and hourly temporal resolution, and (b) leaf area index fields estimated over the watershed during a few years using satellite data with two different spatial and temporal resolutions. The mesoscale model estimates of spatially distributed surface hydrometeorological variables provide the basis for the extrapolation of the surface climate station data to produce input for the Penman–Monteith equation. The satellite information and existing digital spatial databases of land use and land cover form the basis for the estimation of Penman–Monteith spatially distributed parameter values. Spatially distributed 3 × 3 km² potential evapotranspiration estimates are obtained for the 3300 km² Panama Canal watershed. Estimates for Gatun Lake within the watershed are found to reproduce well the monthly and annual lake evaporation obtained from submerged pans. Sensitivity analysis results of potential evapotranspiration estimates with respect to cloud cover, dew formation, leaf area index distribution and mesoscale model estimates of surface climate are presented and discussed. The main conclusion is that even the limited spatially distributed hydrometeorological and plant information used in this study contributes significantly toward explaining the substantial spatial variability of potential evapotranspiration in the watershed. These results also allow the determination of key locations within the watershed where additional surface stations may be profitably placed. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Intercomparison of evapotranspiration estimates

Abstract

Five methods of computing reference evapotranspiration from a reference crop (Penman, radiation, Blaney-Criddle, Hargreaves and pan evaporation) have been studied for their applicability under different climatic conditions. The Penman method was taken as the standard and the other four methods were compared against this method. Good correlation was obtained between the values estimated by the four methods and the Penman method although differences in magnitude were found. Regression equations were developed to correct those differences in magnitude. The method suitable for the estimation of reference evapotranspiration for each climatic condition is also suggested.     

Estimating soil water fluxes from soil water records obtained using dielectric sensors

Accurate estimation of the soil water balance (SWB) is important for a number of applications (e.g. environmental, meteorological, agronomical and hydrological). The objective of this study was to develop and test techniques for the estimation of soil water fluxes and SWB components (particularly infiltration, evaporation and drainage below the root zone) from soil water records. The work presented here is based on profile soil moisture data measured using dielectric methods, at 30‐min resolution, at an experimental site with different vegetation covers (barley, sunflower and bare soil). Estimates of infiltration were derived by assuming that observed gains in the soil profile water content during rainfall were due to infiltration. Inaccuracies related to diurnal fluctuations present in the dielectric‐based soil water records are resolved by filtering the data with adequate threshold values. Inconsistencies caused by the redistribution of water after rain events were corrected by allowing for a redistribution period before computing water gains. Estimates of evaporation and drainage were derived from water losses above and below the deepest zero flux plane (ZFP), respectively. The evaporation estimates for the sunflower field were compared to evaporation data obtained with an eddy covariance (EC) system located elsewhere in the field. The EC estimate of total evaporation for the growing season was about 25% larger than that derived from the soil water records. This was consistent with differences in crop growth (based on direct measurements of biomass, and field mapping of vegetation using laser altimetry) between the EC footprint and the area of the field used for soil moisture monitoring. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High resolution water body mapping for SWAT evaporative modelling in the Upper Oconee watershed of Georgia,USA

Technological improvements in remote sensing and geographic information systems have demonstrated the abundance of artificially constructed water bodies across the landscape. Although research has shown the ubiquity of small ponds globally, and in the southeastern United States in particular, their cumulative impact in terms of evaporative alteration is less well quantified. The objectives of this study are to examine the hydrologic and evaporative importance of small artificial water bodies in the Upper Oconee watershed in the northern Georgia Piedmont, USA, by mapping their locations and modelling these small reservoirs using the Soil Water Assessment Tool. Comparative Soil Water Assessment Tool models were run with and without the inclusion of small reservoir surface area and volume. The models used meteorological inputs from 1990–2013 to represent years with drought, high precipitation, and moderate precipitation for both the calibration and evaluation periods. Statistical comparison of streamflow indicated that the calibration methodology produced results where the default model simulation without reservoirs fit observed flows more closely than the modified model with small reservoirs included (e.g., Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.72 vs. 0.64, r² of 0.73 vs. 0.66, and percent bias of 11.4 vs. 21.6). In addition, Penman–Monteith, Hargreaves, and Priestley–Taylor evapotranspiration equations were used to estimate actual evaporation from 2,219 small water bodies identified throughout the 1,936.8 km² watershed. Depending on the evaporation equation used, water bodies evaporated an average of 0.03–0.036 km³/year for the period 2003–2013. Using Penman–Monteith further, if the reservoirs were not considered and average actual evapotranspiration rates from the rest of the basin were applied, only 0.016 km³ of water would have left the basin as a result of evapotranspiration. This finding suggests construction of small reservoirs increased evaporation by an average of 0.017 km³ per year (approximately 46,500 m³/day). As the construction of small reservoirs continues and high resolution image data used to map these water bodies becomes increasingly available, watershed models that evolve to address the cumulative impacts of small water bodies on evaporation and other hydrologic processes will have greater potential to benefit the water resource management community.     

Sensitivity of mass transfer-based evaporation equations to errors in daily and monthly input data

The influence of data errors on the performance of mass transfer-based evaporation equations was investigated for both monthly and daily data from a climatological station in the State of Vaud in Switzerland. Evaporation estimates were found to be particularly sensitive to vapour pressure gradient, less sensitive to wind speed and most insensitive to temperature. A quantitative analysis showed that: (1) systematic errors in vapour pressure data influenced evaporation estimates inversely to more or less the same magnitude for both monthly and daily cases; (2) systematic errors in wind speed and temperature data influenced evaporation estimates inversely to the magnitude of about a half and a quarter of the magnitude of the influence of vapour pressure errors, respectively; and (3) evaporation estimates were much more sensitive to random errors in the case of monthly data than daily data. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaporation from boreal reservoirs: A comparison between eddy covariance observations and estimates relying on limited data

Hydrological models used for reservoir management typically lack an accurate representation of open-water evaporation and must be run in a scarce data context. This study aims to identify an accurate means to estimate reservoir evaporation with simple meteorological inputs during the open-water season, using long-term eddy covariance observations from two boreal hydropower reservoirs with contrasting morphometry as reference. Unlike the temperate water bodies on which the majority of other studies have focused, northern reservoirs are governed by three distinct periods: ice cover in the cold season, warming in the summer and energy release in the fall. The reservoirs of interest are Eastmain-1 (52°N, mean depth of 11 m) and Romaine-2 (51°N, mean depth of 42 m), both located in eastern Canada. Four approaches are analysed herein: a combination approach, a radiation-based approach, a mass-transfer approach, and empirical methods. Of all the approaches, the bulk transfer equation with a constant Dalton number of 1.2 x 10⁻³ gave the most accurate estimation of evaporation at hourly time steps, compared with the eddy covariance observations (RMSE of 0.06 mm h⁻¹ at Eastmain-1 and RMSE of 0.04 mm h⁻¹ at Romaine-2). The daily series also showed good accuracy (RMSE of 1.38 mm day⁻¹ at Eastmain-1 and RMSE of 0.62 mm day⁻¹ at Romaine-2) both in the warming and energy release phases of the open-water season. The bulk transfer equation, on the other hand, was incapable of reproducing condensation episodes that occurred soon after ice breakup. Basic and variance-based sensitivity analyses were conducted, in particular to measure the variation in performance when the bulk transfer equation was applied with meteorological observations collected at a certain distance (~10–30 km) from the reservoir. This exercise illustrated that accurate estimates of open water evaporation require representative measurements of wind speed and water surface temperature.     

Implication of evaporative loss estimation methods in discharge and water temperature modelling in cool temperate climates

Evaporative flux is a key component of hydrological budgets. Water loss through evapotranspiration reduces volumes available for run‐off. The transition from liquid to water vapour on open water surfaces requires heat. Consequently, evaporation act as a cooling mechanism during summer. Both river discharge and water temperature simulations are thus influenced by the methods used to model evaporation. In this paper, the impact of evapotranspiration estimation methods on simulated discharge is assessed using a semidistributed model on two Canadian watersheds. The impact of evaporation estimation methods on water temperature simulations is also evaluated. Finally, the validity of using the same formulation to simulate both of these processes is verified. Five well‐known evapotranspiration models and five evaporation models with different wind functions were tested. Results show a large disparity (18–22% of mean annual total evapotranspiration) among the evapotranspiration methods, leading to important differences in simulated discharge (3–25% of observed discharge). Larger differences result from evaporation estimation methods with mean annual divergences of 34–48%. This translates into a difference in mean summer water temperature of 1–15%. Results also show that the choice of model parameter has less influence than the choice of evapotranspiration method in discharge simulations. However, the parameter values influence thermal simulations in the same order of magnitude as the choice of evaporation estimation method. Overall, the results of this study suggest that evapotranspiration and open water evaporation should be represented separately in a hydrological modelling framework, especially when water temperature simulations are required.     

Implications of 2007’s Earthquake Activity in Eğirdir Lake (SW Anatolia) Based on Moment Tensor Solutions and Inversion of Stress State

We analyzed the waveforms of the small- to moderate-sized earthquakes that took place in the northern part of the inner Isparta Angle (IA) to retrieve their source parameters and combine these results with the focal mechanism solutions of the larger events that occurred in 2007 in E?irdir Lake at the apex of IA. In total, source mechanisms of 20 earthquakes within the magnitude range 3.5 < M < 5.0 were calculated using a regional moment tensor inversion technique. The inversion of the focal mechanisms yields an extensional regime with a NNE–SSW (N38°E) trending σ ₃ axis. Inversion results are related to a mainly WNW–ESE oriented normal fault beneath E?irdir Lake. The R value of a NNE–SSW extensional regime is 0.562 showing a triaxial stress state in the region. The current stress regime results from complex subduction processes such as slab pull, slab break-off, roll-back and/or retreating mechanism along the Hellenic and Cyprus arcs and the southwestward extrusion of the Anatolian block since the early Pliocene.     

Comparison of radial basis function networks and empirical equations for converting from pan evaporation to reference evapotranspiration

Evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the major processes in the hydrological cycle, and its reliable estimation is essential to water resources management. Numerous equations have been developed for estimating ET, most of which are complex and require numerous items of weather data. In many areas, the necessary data are lacking, and simpler techniques are required. Evaporation pans are used throughout the world because of the simplicity of technique, low cost, and ease of application. In this study, the radial basis function (RBF) network is applied for pan evaporation to evapotranspiration conversions. The adaptive pan‐based RBF network was trained using daily Policoro data from 15 May 1981 to 23 December 1983. The RBF network obtained, Christiansen, FAO‐24 pan, and FAO‐56 Penman–Monteith equations were verified in comparison with lysimeter measurements of grass evapotranspiration using daily Policoro data from 25 February to 18 December 1984. Based on summary statistics, the RBF network ranked first with the lowest RMSE value (0·433 mm day^?1). The RBF network obtained on the basis of the daily data from Policoro, Italy and pan‐based equations were further tested using mean monthly data collected in Novi Sad, Serbia, and Kimberly, Idaho, USA. The overall results favoured use of the RBF network for pan evaporation to evapotranspiration conversions. The use of the RBF network is very simple and does not require any knowledge of ANNs. Users require only code (RBF network), E_pan data and corresponding R_a data. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.