The chronology and the hydrometeorology of catastrophic floods on Dartmoor,South West England

Extreme floods are the most widespread and often the most fatal type of natural hazard experienced in Europe, particularly in upland and mountainous areas. These ‘flash flood’ type events are particularly dangerous because extreme rainfall totals in a short space of time can lead to very high flow velocities and little or no time for flood warning. Given the danger posed by extreme floods, there are concerns that catastrophic hydrometeorological events could become more frequent in a warming world. However, analysis of longer term flood frequency is often limited by the use of short instrumental flow records (last 30–40 years) that do not adequately cover alternating flood‐rich and flood‐poor periods over the last 2 to 3 centuries. In contrast, this research extends the upland flood series of South West England (Dartmoor) back to ca AD 1800 using lichenometry. Results show that the period 1820 to mid‐1940s was characterized by widespread flooding, with particularly large and frequent events in the mid‐to‐late 19th and early 20th centuries. Since ca 1850 to 1900, there has been a general decline in flood magnitude that was particularly marked after the 1930s/mid‐1940s. Local meteorological records show that: (1) historical flood‐rich periods on Dartmoor were associated with high annual, seasonal and daily rainfall totals in the last quarter of the 19th century and between 1910 and 1946, related to sub‐decadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and receipt of cyclonic and southerly weather types over the southwest peninsula; and (2) the incidence of heavy daily rainfall declined notably after 1946, similar to sedimentary archives of flooding. The peak period of flooding on Dartmoor predates the beginning of gauged flow records, which has practical implications for understanding and managing flood risk on rivers that drain Dartmoor. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

To what extent have changes in channel capacity contributed to flood hazard trends in England and Wales?

The frequency of floods has been projected to increase across Europe in the coming decades due to extreme weather events. However, our understanding of how flood frequency is affected by geomorphic changes in river channel capacity remains limited. This paper seeks to quantify the influence of trends in channel capacity on flood hazards. Measuring and predicting the effect of geomorphic changes on freshwater flooding is essential to mitigate the potential effects of major floods through informed planning and response. Hydrometric records from 41 stream gauging stations were used to measure trends in the flood stage (i.e. water surface elevation) frequency above the 1% annual exceedance threshold. The hydrologic and geomorphic components of flood hazard were quantified separately to determine their contribution to the total trend in flood stage frequency. Trends in cross‐sectional flow area and mean flow velocity were also investigated at the same flood stage threshold. Results showed that a 10% decrease (or increase) in the channel capacity would result in an increase (or decrease) in the flood frequency of approximately 1.5 days per year on average across these 41 sites. Widespread increases in the flood hazard frequency were amplified through both hydrologic and geomorphic effects. These findings suggest that overlooking the potential influence of changing channel capacity on flooding may be hazardous. Better understanding and quantifying the influence of geomorphic trends on flood hazard will provide key insight for managers and engineers into the driving mechanisms of fluvial flooding over relatively short timescales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The influence of hydroclimatic variability on flood frequency in the Lower Rhine

Climate change is expected to significantly affect flooding regimes of river systems in the future. For Western Europe, flood risk assessments generally assume an increase in extreme events and flood risk, and as a result major investments are planned to reduce their impacts. However, flood risk assessments for the present day and the near future suffer from uncertainty, coming from short measurements series, limited precision of input data, arbitrary choices for particular statistical and modelling approaches, and climatic non‐stationarities. This study demonstrates how historical and sedimentary information can extend data records, adds important information on extremes, and generally improves flood risk assessments. The collection of specific data on the occurrence and magnitude of extremes and the natural variability of the floods is shown to be of paramount importance to reduce uncertainty in our understanding of flooding regime changes in a changing climate. For the Lower Rhine (the Netherlands and Germany) estimated recurrence times and peak discharges associated with the current protection levels correlate poorly with historical and sedimentary information and seem biased towards the recent multi‐decadal period of increased flood activity. Multi‐decadal and centennial variability in flood activity is recorded in extended series of discharge data, historical information and sedimentary records. Over the last six centuries that variability correlates with components of the Atlantic climate system such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multi‐decadal Oscillation (AMO). These climatic non‐stationarities importantly influence flood activity and the outcomes of flood risk assessments based on relatively short measurement series. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A hydrogeomorphic assessment of twenty‐first century floods in the UK

The occurrence of devastating floods in the British uplands during the first two decades of the twenty‐first century poses two key questions: (1) are recent events unprecedented in terms of their frequency and magnitude; and (2) is climate and/or land‐use change driving the apparent upturn in flooding? Conventional methods of analysing instrumental flow records cannot answer these questions because upland catchments are usually ungauged, and where records do exist they rarely provide more than 30–40 years of data. In this paper we analyse all lichen‐dated upland flood records in the United Kingdom (UK) to establish the longer‐term context and causes of recent severe flooding. Our new analysis of torrential sedimentary deposits shows that twenty‐first century floods are not unprecedented in terms of both their frequency (they were more frequent before 1960) and magnitude (the biggest events occurred during the seventeenth–nineteenth centuries). However, in some areas recent floods have either equalled or exceeded the largest historical events. The majority of recent floods have been triggered by torrential summer downpours related to a marked negative phase of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) between 2007 and 2012. It is of concern that historical data suggests there is far more capacity in the North Atlantic climate system to produce wetter and more prolonged flood‐rich periods than hitherto experienced in the twenty‐first century. Looking forwards, an increased likelihood of weather extremes due to climate change means that geomorphological based flood series extensions must be placed at the centre of flood risk assessment in the UK uplands and in similar areas worldwide. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change and fluvial flood risk in the UK: more of the same?

The potential impact of climate change on fluvial flooding is receiving considerable scientific and political interest thanks to evidence from climate model projections and a widely held belief that flood risk may be increasing at European levels. This review compares published work on historical trends in UK rainfall and river flow records with high‐resolution regional climate change projections, and attempts to reconcile apparent differences between the two. Attention is focused on the techniques used for climate change detection and attribution, as well as the potential confounding effects of land‐use change. International and domestic efforts to build adaptive capacity rest on improved quantification of uncertainty in flood risk at very local, catchment and regional scales. This will involve further research to better integrate climate and land‐management interactions, to understand changes in the dependence between different flood generating mechanisms, and to improve the characterization and communication of uncertainty at all stages of analysis. Resources are also needed to ensure that latest, but still uncertain, science is presented in an appropriate form to underpin policy development and is translated into sensible guidance for practitioners. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial and temporal variability of flood seasonality in Wales

High‐magnitude floods across Europe within the last decade have resulted in the widespread reassessment of flood risk; this coupled with the introduction of the Water Framework Directive (2000) has increased the need for a detailed understanding of seasonal variability in flood magnitude and frequency. Mean day of flood (MDF) and flood seasonality were calculated for Wales using 30 years of gauged river‐flow records (1973–2002). Noticeable regional variations in timing and length of flood season are evident, with flooding occurring earlier in small catchments draining higher elevations in north and mid‐west Wales. Low‐altitude regions in West Wales exposed to westerly winds experience flooding during October–January, while large eastern draining catchments experience later flooding (January–February). In the northeast and mid‐east regions December–January months experience the greatest number of floods, while the southeast has a slightly longer flood season (December–February), with a noticeable increase in January floods. Patterns obtained from MDF data demonstrate their effectiveness and use in analysing regional patterns in flood seasonality, but catchment‐specific determinants, e.g. catchment wetness, size and precipitation regime are important factors in flood seasonality. Relatively strong correlations between precipitation and flood activity are evident in Wales, with a poorer relationship between flooding and weather types and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Historically unprecedented erosion from Tropical Storm Irene due to high antecedent precipitation

Lacustrine sediment archives indicate that flooding during Tropical Storm Irene (2011) in the north‐eastern United States caused the most severe erosion of any flood in the historic record, surpassing that of events with greater precipitation and peak discharges. Compared to deposition from historic floods, Irene's event layer was more massive and more enriched in unweathered upland sediments, indicating an anomalously high incidence of mass wasting and sediment entrainment. Precipitation records indicate that neither precipitation intensity nor total accumulation distinguished Irene from less erosive historic floods. However, cumulative precipitation prior to Irene exceeded the 95th percentile of all days in the record. When allowing for non‐stationarity in the twentieth century background precipitation, we find a four‐fold increase in the probability of Irene‐like conditions, where impacts of extreme rainfall are enhanced by high antecedent precipitation. We conclude that irrespective of increases in extreme precipitation, the risk of highly erosive flooding in the region is increasing due to the influence of wetter baseline conditions associated with a changing climate. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

气候变暖下太湖极端洪水的归因探讨

全球增温引起的降水变化是否引起极端洪水的增加,发生在不同气候背景的极端洪水事件可提供不同参照系;而不同驱动因子下气候、水文数值模拟为认识洪水发生和归因提供了有效途径.本文结合机理数值模拟和随机统计模拟两种途径,针对1990s和1880s的太湖流域特大洪水,通过GCM气候模拟驱动的流域水文模拟和不确定性的阈值模拟,分析19世纪末和20世纪末极端洪水的发生强度和频率的变化,从而论证极端洪水发生的风险系数.结果表明,1990s的极端洪水流量(0.1%的极端洪水流量(Q0.1%)为2929~3601 m³/s,0.5%的极端洪水流量(Q0.5%)为1842~1893 m³/s)比工业革命前大气温室气体状况下(Q0.1%为2069~3119 m³/s,Q0.5%为1436~1561 m³/s)显著增大.与19世纪末相比,由于太湖流域人类活动改变的流域下垫面在1999年特大洪水中引起最大增量占35%,本文模拟和分析的20世纪末气候下的洪水最大增量占60%.去除人类活动影响的下垫面变化,估计特大洪水风险的最大增量为25%,因此认为20世纪末气候变化引起的太湖极端洪水风险在增加;这将为认识与全球增温相关联的洪水灾害预测预警提供科学依据.     

The effects of floods on the temperature of riparian groundwater

The transition area between rivers and their adjacent riparian aquifers, which may comprise the hyporheic zone, hosts important biochemical reactions, which control water quality. The rates of these reactions and metabolic processes are temperature dependent. Yet the thermal dynamics of riparian aquifers, especially during flooding and dynamic groundwater flow conditions, has seldom been studied. Thus, we investigated heat transport in riparian aquifers during 3 flood events of different magnitudes at 2 sites along the same river. River and riparian aquifer temperature and water‐level data along the Lower Colorado River in Central Texas, USA, were monitored across 2‐dimensional vertical sections perpendicular to the bank. At the downstream site, preflood temperature penetration distance into the bank suggested that advective heat transport from lateral hyporheic exchange of river water into the riparian aquifer was occurring during relatively steady low‐flow river conditions. Although a small (20‐cm stage increase) dam‐controlled flood pulse had no observable influence on groundwater temperature, larger floods (40‐cm and >3‐m stage increases) caused lateral movement of distinct heat plumes away from the river during flood stage, which then retreated back towards the river after flood recession. These plumes result from advective heat transport caused by flood waters being forced into the riparian aquifer. These flood‐induced temperature responses were controlled by the size of the flood, river water temperature during the flood, and local factors at the study sites, such as topography and local ambient water table configuration. For the intermediate and large floods, the thermal disturbance in the riparian aquifer lasted days after flood waters receded. Large floods therefore have impacts on the temperature regime of riparian aquifers lasting long beyond the flood's timescale. These persistent thermal disturbances may have a significant impact on biochemical reaction rates, nutrient cycling, and ecological niches in the river corridor.     

Flooding in Fiji: findings from a 100-year historical series

Abstract

Correspondence from a long-established sugar mill provided the opportunity to construct the longest flood series for a river in Fiji—the Ba River in northwest Viti Levu—from 1892 to 2002. Flood waters reached the mill floor every four years on average. Contrary to common lore, this study could detect no increase in the frequency of major floods over the course of the 20th century, despite intensification of land use and siltation of the river channel over that time. Large, slow-moving tropical cyclones situated northwest of the valley have generated large floods, but so too have tropical rainstorms. Major floods have occurred in months when the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was both negative and positive, suggesting that the SOI is a poor indicator of flood potential for the Ba River.     

Stormy geomorphology: geomorphic contributions in an age of climate extremes

The increasing frequency and/or severity of extreme climate events are becoming increasingly apparent over multi‐decadal timescales at the global scale, albeit with relatively low scientific confidence. At the regional scale, scientific confidence in the future trends of extreme event likelihood is stronger, although the trends are spatially variable. Confidence in these extreme climate risks is muddied by the confounding effects of internal landscape system dynamics and external forcing factors such as changes in land use and river and coastal engineering. Geomorphology is a critical discipline in disentangling climate change impacts from other controlling factors, thereby contributing to debates over societal adaptation to extreme events. We review four main geomorphic contributions to flood and storm science. First, we show how palaeogeomorphological and current process studies can extend the historical flood record while also unraveling the complex interactions between internal geomorphic dynamics, human impacts and changes in climate regimes. A key outcome will be improved quantification of flood probabilities and the hazard dimension of flood risk. Second, we present evidence showing how antecedent geomorphological and climate parameters can alter the risk and magnitude of landscape change caused by extreme events. Third, we show that geomorphic processes can both mediate and increase the geomorphological impacts of extreme events, influencing societal risk. Fourthly, we show the potential of managing flood and storm risk through the geomorphic system, both near‐term (next 50 years) and longer‐term. We recommend that key methods of managing flooding and erosion will be more effective if risk assessments include palaeodata, if geomorphological science is used to underpin nature‐based management approaches, and if land‐use management addresses changes in geomorphic process regimes that extreme events can trigger. We argue that adopting geomorphologically‐grounded adaptation strategies will enable society to develop more resilient, less vulnerable socio‐geomorphological systems fit for an age of climate extremes. © 2016 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

CHANGES IN THE MAGNITUDE AND TRANSFORMATION OF FLOOD WAVES SUBSEQUENT TO THE CHANNELIZATION OF THE RABA RIVER,POLISH CARPATHIANS

Alterations in flood flows of the Raba River are examined to determine the influence exerted on flood waves by changing morphological conditions. With stable vertical channel position, the river increased its sinuosity during the 1920s to 1940s, and the change was accompanied by a growing tendency to flood-wave attenuation. The temporal change in flood-wave transformation is typical of a developing low-flow system. Subsequently, streambed degradation has been induced due to channnelization works which straightened and narrowed the river. Flood waves became progressively more flashy as channel incision progressed. The increase in magnitude of flood waves passing the deepened reach was greatest for bankfull flows and diminished for lower in-bank flows and higher overbank flows. The tendency to magnification of peak discharges has been also found in other Carpathian rivers which were considerably degraded in the 20th century in response to channelization. Introducing an empirically found correcting factor into the analysis of the ratio of outflow to inflow peak discharges shows how the conditions of peak-flow transformation in a reach have changed since the beginning of the study period. A marked coincidence between changes in vertical channel location and variations in the ‘corrected’ peak-discharge ratio proves channel changes to be a very important reason for the growing flood hazard in southern Poland. Gradient oversteepening and channel narrowing, caused by channelization, lead to formation of a river system having a steep, straight, narrow and deep channel. Such a morphology distinguishes the system from natural low-flow and high-flow systems. Reduced floodplain water storage and self-acceleration of flow concentrated in a channel zone make flood waves progressively more flashy on their way down the channelization-formed system.     

Flood hazard and risk analysis in the southwest region of Bangladesh

Flood hazard and risk assessment was conducted to identify the priority areas in the southwest region of Bangladesh for flood mitigation. Simulation of flood flow through the Gorai and Arial Khan river system and its floodplains was done by using a hydrodynamic model. After model calibration and verification, the model was used to simulate the flood flow of 100‐year return period for a duration of four months. The maximum flooding depths at different locations in the rivers and floodplains were determined. The process in determining long flooding durations at every grid point in the hydrodynamic model is laborious and time‐consuming. Therefore the flood durations were determined by using satellite images of the observed flood in 1988, which has a return period close to 100 years. Flood hazard assessment was done considering flooding depth and duration. By dividing the study area into smaller land units for hazard assessment, the hazard index and the hazard factor for each land unit for depth and duration of flooding were determined. From the hazard factors of the land units, a flood hazard map, which indicates the locations of different categories of hazard zones, was developed. It was found that 54% of the study area was in the medium hazard zone, 26% in the higher hazard zone and 20% in the lower hazard zone. Due to lack of sufficient flood damage data, flood damage vulnerability is simply considered proportional to population density. The flood risk factor of each land unit was determined as the product of the flood hazard factor and the vulnerability factor. Knowing the flood risk factors for the land units, a flood risk map was developed based on the risk factors. These maps are very useful for the inhabitants and floodplain management authorities to minimize flood damage and loss of human lives. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing possible changes in flood frequency due to climate change in mid‐sized watersheds in New York State,USA

The frequency of flooding is often presumed to increase with climate change because of projected increases in rainfall intensities. In this paper, using 50‐plus years of historical discharge and meteorological data from three watersheds in different physiographic regions of New York State, USA, we find that annual maximum stream discharges are associated with 20% or less of the annual maximum rainfall events. Instead of rainfall events, approximately 20% of annual maximum stream discharges are associated with annual maximum snowmelt events while 60% of annual maximum discharges are associated with moderate rainfall amounts and very wet soil conditions. To explore the potential for changes in future flood risk, we employed a compound frequency distribution that assumes annual maximum discharges can be modelled by combining the cumulative distribution functions of discharges resulting from annual maximum rainfall, annual maximum snowmelt, and occurrences of moderate rain on wet soils. Basing on a compound frequency distribution comprised of univariate general extreme value (GEV) and gamma distributions, we found that a hypothetical 20% increase in the magnitude of rainfall‐related stream discharge results in little change in 96th percentile annual maximum discharge. For the 99th percentile discharge, two waterbodies in our study had a 10% or less increase in annual maximum discharge when annual maximum rainfall‐related discharges increased 20% while the third waterbody had a 16% increase in annual maximum discharges. Additionally, in some cases, annual maximum discharges could be offset by a reduction in the discharge resulting from annual maximum snowmelt events. While only intended as a heuristic tool to explore the interaction among different flood‐causing mechanisms, use of a compound flood frequency distribution suggests a case can be made that not all waterbodies in humid, cold regions will see extensive changes in flooding due to increased rainfall intensities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence

Abstract

The magnitudes of the largest known floods of the River Rhine in Basel since 1268 were assessed using a hydraulic model drawing on a set of pre-instrumental evidence and daily hydrological measurements from 1808. The pre-instrumental evidence, consisting of flood marks and documentary data describing extreme events with the customary reference to specific landmarks, was “calibrated” by comparing it with the instrumental series for the overlapping period between the two categories of evidence (1808–1900). Summer (JJA) floods were particularly frequent in the century between 1651–1750, when precipitation was also high. Severe winter (DJF) floods have not occurred since the late 19th century despite a significant increase in winter precipitation. Six catastrophic events involving a runoff greater than 6000 m ³ s^‐1 are documented prior to 1700. They were initiated by spells of torrential rainfall of up to 72 h (1480 event) and preceded by long periods of substantial precipitation that saturated the soils, and/or by abundant snowmelt. All except two (1999 and 2007) of the 43 identified severe events (SEs: defined as having runoff > 5000 and < 6000 m ³ s ^‐1) occurred prior to 1877. Not a single SE is documented from 1877 to 1998. The intermediate 121-year-long “flood disaster gap” is unique over the period since 1268. The effect of river regulations (1714 for the River Kander; 1877 for the River Aare) and the building of reservoirs in the 20th century upon peak runoff were investigated using a one-dimensional hydraulic flood-routing model. Results show that anthropogenic effects only partially account for the “flood disaster gap” suggesting that variations in climate should also be taken into account in explaining these features.

Citation Wetter, O., Pfister, C., Weingartner, R., Luterbacher, J., Reist, T., & Trösch, J. (2011) The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 733–758.     

Predicting storm runoff from different land‐use classes using a geographical information system‐based distributed model

A method is presented to evaluate the storm runoff contributions from different land‐use class areas within a river basin using the geographical information system‐based hydrological model WetSpa. The modelling is based on division of the catchment into a grid mesh. Each cell has a unique response function independent of the functioning of other cells. Summation of the flow responses from the cells with the same land‐use type results in the storm runoff contribution from these areas. The model was applied on the Steinsel catchment in the Alzette river basin, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, with 52 months of meteo‐hydrological measurements. The simulation results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land‐use areas in this catchment, and this tends to increase for small floods and for the dry‐season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to recession flow. It is demonstrated that the relative contribution from urban areas decreases with flow coefficient, that cropland relative contribution is nearly constant, and that the relative contribution from grassland and woodland increases with flow coefficient with regard to their percentage of land‐use class areas within the study catchment. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydro-climatology of the Lower Rhône Valley: historical flood reconstruction (AD 1300–2000) based on documentary and instrumental sources

From the HISTRHONE database we extracted 1483 hydro-meteorological events from AD 1300 to 2000 that occurred in the Lower Rhône Valley, France. Daily heights of the Rhône River at Beaucaire and Arles are also available, from 1816 and 1829, respectively. A total of 517 floods were divided into three categories and a synthetic frequency severity index (FSI) was computed. Running averages of 11 and 31 years show a succession of poor and rich flood fluctuations. Extreme floods tripled in the second half of the period (1650–2000). Singular spectrum analysis isolates a dominant irregular component (main positive anomalies in 1450–1580, around 1700, late 18th century, and most of the 20th century). We focus on the 17th century, with rare flooding events between two secular so-called “hyper phases”, i.e. frequent and/or severe floods. We also recorded 173 episodes of ice in the river, during the Little Ice Age.     

River flood seasonality in the Northeast United States: Characterization and trends

The New England and Mid‐Atlantic regions of the Northeast United States have experienced climate‐induced increases in both the magnitude and frequency of floods. However, a detailed understanding of flood seasonality across these regions, and how flood seasonality may have changed over the instrumental record, has not been established. The annual timing of river floods reflects the flood‐generating mechanisms operating in a basin, and many aquatic and riparian organisms are adapted to flood seasonality, as are human uses of river channels and flood plains. Changes in flood seasonality may indicate changes in flood‐generating mechanisms, and their interactions, with important implications for habitats, flood plain infrastructure, and human communities. I applied a probabilistic method for identifying flood seasons at a monthly resolution for 90 Northeast U.S. watersheds with natural, or near‐natural, flood‐generating conditions. Historical trends in flood seasonality were also investigated. Analyses were based on peaks‐over‐threshold flood records that have, on average, 85 years of data and three peaks per year—thus providing more information about flood seasonality than annual maximums. The results show rich detail about annual flood timing across the region with each site having a unique pattern of monthly flood occurrence. However, a much smaller number of dominant seasonal patterns emerged when contiguous flood‐rich months were classified into commonly recognized seasons (e.g., Mar–May, spring). The dominant seasonal patterns identified by manual classification were corroborated by unsupervised classification methods (i.e., cluster analyses). Trend analyses indicated that the annual timing of flood‐rich seasons has generally not shifted over the period of record, but 65 sites with data from 1941 to 2013 revealed increased numbers of June–October floods—a trend driving previously documented increases in Northeast U.S. flood counts per year. These months have been historically flood‐poor at the sites examined, so warm‐season flood potential has increased with possible implications for aquatic and riparian organisms.     

Modelling artificial channel and land‐use changes and their impact on floods and sediment yield to the Ishikari basin

The potential for flooding and sediment transport is greatly affected by river channel form and changes in land use. Therefore the modelling of channel morphology prior to canalization and of land‐use change is important with respect to the prediction of floods and sediment yield and their consequences. A combination of land‐use transformation maps and soil properties shows certain decision rules for the conversion of forest into arable or vice versa. The model proposed, from this study, was used to simulate possible past and/or future channel and land‐use patterns. Subsequently, the outcome of this simulation was used to assess the risk of flooding, sediment transport and soil‐erosion under different conditions. In this study, channel morphology prior to canalization and land‐use change in the Ishikari basin, Hokkaido, Japan, were analysed by comparing three scenarios using a physical based channel and slope model. The results indicate that pre‐canalization channel morphology has a significant impact on flood peak, but no significant effect on sediment yield. In contrast, land‐use change has a significant effect on soil eroded from hillslopes, but no significant effect on flooding for Ishikari basin. This study also illustrates the challenges that a simple model, such as a physical based channel and slope model, can simulate large‐scale river basin processes using fewer hydrological data resources. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flood frequency under the influence of trends in the Pearl River basin,China: changing patterns,causes and implications

Using a nonstationary flood frequency model, this study investigates the impact of trends on the estimation of flood frequencies and flood magnification factors. Analysis of annual peak streamflow data from 28 hydrological stations across the Pearl River basin, China, shows that: (1) northeast parts of the West and the North River basins are dominated by increasing annual peak streamflow, whereas decreasing trends of annual peak streamflow are prevailing in other regions of the Pearl River basin; (2) trends significantly impact the estimation of flood frequencies. The changing frequency of the same flood magnitude is related to the changing magnitude or significance/insignificance of trends, larger increasing frequency can be detected for stations with significant increasing trends of annual peak streamflow and vice versa, and smaller increasing magnitude for stations with not significant increasing annual peak streamflow, pointing to the critical impact of trends on estimation of flood frequencies; (3) larger‐than‐1 flood magnification factors are observed mainly in the northeast parts of the West River basin and in the North River basin, implying magnifying flood processes in these regions and a higher flood risk in comparison with design flood‐control standards; and (4) changes in hydrological extremes result from the integrated influence of human activities and climate change. Generally, magnifying flood regimes in the northeast Pearl River basin and in the North River basin are mainly the result of intensifying precipitation regime; smaller‐than‐1 flood magnification factors along the mainstream of the West River basin and also in the East River basin are the result of hydrological regulations of water reservoirs. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.