Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland

Abstract

Discharge in the Warta River in Poland has been analysed based on long series of measurements at the Gorzów Wielkopolski gauge station (covering the whole catchment area) and at Poznań (middle and upper catchment area), and the Note? River is characterized by the gauge station at Nowe Drezdenko. The annual mean discharge of the Warta River for the period 1981–2010 was equal to the average value for the last 163 years (209 m³ s^-1), and there was no significant change in comparison with the ratio of runoff in the summer and winter half-years. In the driest region of Poland, the climate has been described on the basis of precipitation and air temperature. The annual mean precipitation for 1981–2010 (544 mm) in the Warta River catchment area was the same as that for the period 1848–2010. The precipitation has been increasing in spring and winter, and decreasing in summer. There is a positive and very significant correlation (r = 0.705) between the annual discharge and annual precipitation totals. The annual mean air temperature has risen by 0.6°C between the periods 1848–1980 and 1981–2010.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Ilnicki, P., Farat, R., Górecki, K., and Lewandowski, P., 2014. Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (6), 1117–1134. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.831979     

Some aspects of the hydroclimatology of the Quesnel River Basin,British Columbia,Canada

In conjunction with available climate data, surface runoff is investigated at 12 gauges in the Quesnel watershed of British Columbia to develop its long‐term (1926–2004) hydroclimatology. At Quesnel itself, annual mean values of air temperature, precipitation and runoff are 4·6 °C, 517 and 648 mm, respectively. Climate data reveal increases in precipitation, no significant trend in mean annual air temperature, but an increasing trend in mean minimum temperatures that is greatest in winter. There is some evidence of decreases in winter snow depth. On the water year scale (October–September), a strong positive correlation is found between discharge and precipitation (r = 0·70, p < 0·01) and a weak negative correlation is found between precipitation and temperature (r = ? 0·36, p < 0·01). Long‐term trends using the Mann‐Kendall test indicate increasing annual discharge amounts that vary from 8 to 14% (12% for the Quesnel River, p = 0·03), and also a tendency toward an earlier spring freshet. River runoff increases at a rate of 1·26 mm yr^?1 m^?1 of elevation from west to east along the strong elevation gradient in the basin. Discharge, temperature and precipitation are correlated with the large‐scale climate indices of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El‐Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Monotonic trend and abrupt changes for major climate variables in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin

On the basis of the mean air temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and pan evaporation at 23 meteorological stations in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin from 1960 to 2001, the long‐term monotonic trend and abrupt changes for major climate variables have been investigated. The plausible monotonic trend of annual climatic time series are detected using a non‐parametric method. The abrupt changes have been investigated in terms of a 5 year moving averaged annual series, using the moving t‐test (MTT) method, Yamamoto method and Mann–Kendall method. The results showed that the annual air temperature has increased by 0·80 °C in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin during the past 42 years. One obvious cold period and one warm period were detected. The warmest centre was located in the northern part of the basin. The long‐term trend for annual precipitation was not significant during the same period, but a dry tendency was detected. According to the Kendall slope values, the declining centre for annual precipitation was located in the eastern part and the centre of the study area. The long‐term monotonic trend for annual sunshine duration and pan evaporation were negative. The average Kendall slopes are ? 29·96 h/10 yr and ? 39·63 mm/10 yr, respectively. The tests for abrupt changes using MTT and Yamamoto methods show similar results. Abrupt changes occurred in the mid 1980s for temperature, in the late 1980s for precipitation and in the early 1980s for sunshine duration and pan evaporation. It can be seen that the abrupt changes really happened in the 1980s for the climate variables. Different results are shown using the Mann–Kendall method. Both the abrupt changes of temperature and precipitation took place in the early 1990s, and that of pan evaporation occurred in the 1960s. The only abrupt change in sunshine duration happened during the similar period (in the 1980s) with the results detected by the MTT and Yamamoto methods. The abrupt changes which occurred in the 1990s and 1960s are not detectable using the MTT and Yamamoto methods because of the data limitation. However, the results tested by the MTT and Yamamoto methods exhibited great consistency. Some of the reasons may be due to the similar principles for these two methods. Different methods testing the abrupt climatic changes have their own merits and limitations and should be compared based on their own assumption and applicable conditions when they are used. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of freshwater and material fluxes from the Yangtze River into the East China Sea by using TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data

In order to determine material fluxes in rivers by non‐contact methods, it is essential to estimate river discharge first. Although developed and optimized for open oceans, satellite radar altimetry has the potential to monitor variations in the levels of inland waters such as lakes and rivers. Making use of the concept of an ‘assumed reference point’, we converted TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry data on water level variations in the Yangtze River (Changjiang) to ‘water level’ data. We also used ‘water level’ time‐series data and in situ river discharge to establish a rating curve. By use of the rating curve, we converted data on ‘water level’ derived from 7 years (1993–99) of TOPEX/Poseidon data to actual river discharge. On the basis of statistical correlation between discharge and nutrient concentration data collected in 1987–88 and in 1998–99, we estimated the total amounts of freshwater and material fluxes transferred by the Yangtze River during the 1990s. The result reveals that an overall, but very slight, increase in freshwater and material fluxes occurred during the 1990s. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The assessment of surface water resources for the semi‐arid Yongding River Basin from 1956 to 2000 and the impact of land use change

The assessment of surface water resources (SWRs) in the semi‐arid Yongding River Basin is vital as the basin has been in a continuous state of serious water shortage over the last 20 years. In this study, the first version of the geomorphology‐based hydrological model (GBHM) has been applied to the basin over a long period of time (1956–2000) as part of an SWR assessment. This was done by simulating the natural hydrological processes in the basin. The model was first evaluated at 18 stream gauges during the period from 1990 to 1992 to evaluate both the daily streamflows and the annual SWRs using the land use data for 1990. The model was further validated in 2000 with the annual SWRs at seven major stream gauges. Second, the verified model was used in a 45‐year simulation to estimate the annual SWRs for the basin from 1956 to 2000 using the 1990 land use data. An empirical correlation between the annual precipitation and the annual SWRs was developed for the basin. Spatial distribution of the long‐term mean runoff coefficients for all 177 sub‐basins was also achieved. Third, an additional 10‐year (1991–2000) simulation was performed with the 2000 land use data to investigate the impact of land use changes from 1990 to 2000 on the long‐term annual SWRs. The results suggest that the 10‐year land use changes have led to a decrease of 8·3 × 10⁷ m³ (7·9% of total) for the 10‐year mean annual SWRs in the simulation. To our knowledge, this work is the first attempt to assess the long‐term SWRs and the impact of land use change in the semi‐arid Yongding River Basin using a semi‐distributed hillslope hydrological model. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes and variation in the discharge regime of the Upper Suriname River Basin and its relationship with the tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST anomalies

Long‐term changes and variability in river flows in the tropical Upper Suriname River Basin in Suriname (2–6°N, 54–58°W) are analysed, including the relation to sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific Ocean. To analyse variability, lag correlation and statistical properties of the data series are used. Long‐term changes are analysed using parametric and non‐parametric statistical techniques. The analyses are performed for the period 1952–1985. The results show that both river discharge series at Semoisie and Pokigron are non‐stationary and have a negative trend. The negative rainfall trend in the centre of Suriname may be responsible for the negative trend in the annual river discharges in the basin. The highest correlation (Pearson's coefficient c) is obtained when the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SSTs lags the monthly discharges at Pokigron by 3–4 months (c = 0·7) and when the Tropical South Atlantic (TSA) SSTs lags the discharges by 4 months (c = ? 0·7). It also follows that the high (low) monthly flows, from April–August (September–March) are associated with increasing (decreasing) SSTs in the TNA and with decreasing (increasing) SSTs in the TSA. The results also reveal that years with low (high) discharges are more related to warmer (colder) SSTs during the year in the TNA region and a southward displacement of the Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). However, the Pacific El Niño (La Niña) events may also be responsible for low (high) flow years in this basin. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation of spatiotemporal dynamics of water fluxes in Germany under climate change

In most of Europe, an increase in average annual surface temperature of 0·8 °C is observed, and a further increase is projected. Precipitation tends to increase in northern Europe and decrease in southern Europe, with variable trends in central Europe. The climate scenarios for Germany suggest an increase in precipitation in western Germany and a decrease in eastern Germany, and a shift of precipitation from summer to winter. When investigating the effects of climate change, impacts on water resources are among the main concerns. In this study, the first German‐wide impact assessment of water fluxes dynamics under climate change is presented in a spatially and temporally distributed manner using the state‐of‐the‐art regional climate model, Statistical Regional (STAR) model and the semi‐distributed process‐based eco‐hydrological model, soil and water integrated model (SWIM). All large river basins in Germany (lower Rhine, upper Danube, Elbe, Weser and Ems) are included. A special focus of the study was on data availability, homogeneity of data sets, related uncertainty propagation in the model results and scenario‐related uncertainty. After the model calibration and validation (efficiency from 0·6 to 0·9 in 80% of cases) the water flow components were simulated at the hydrotope level, and the spatial distributions were compared with those in the Hydrological Atlas of Germany. The actual evapotransipration is likely to increase in most parts of Germany, while total runoff generation may decrease in south and east regions. The results for the second scenario period 2051–2060 show that water discharge in all six rivers would be 8–30% lower in summer and autumn compared with the reference period, and the strongest decline is expected for the Saale, Danube and Neckar. Higher winter flow is expected in all of these rivers, and the increase is most significant for the Ems (about 18%). However, the uncertainty of impacts, especially in winter and for high water flows, remains high. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long‐term variations and temporal scaling of hydroclimatic time series with focus on the German part of the Elbe River Basin

Long‐term variations and temporal scaling of mean monthly time series of river flow, precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, duration of bright sunshine, degree of cloud cover, short wave radiation, wind speed and potential evaporation within or in vicinity of the German part of the Elbe River Basin are analyzed. Statistically significant correlations between the 2–15 year scale‐averaged wavelet spectra of the hydroclimatic variables and the North Atlantic Oscillation‐ and Arctic Oscillation index are found which suggests that such long‐term patterns in hydroclimatic time series are externally forced. The Hurst parameter estimates (H) based on the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) indicate persistence for discharge, precipitation, wind speed, air pressure and the degree of cloud cover, all having an annual cycle and a broad low‐frequency distribution. Also, DFA H parameter estimates are higher for discharge than for precipitation. The major long‐term quasi‐periodic variability modes of precipitation detected using Singular Spectrum Analysis coincide with those detected in the discharge time series. Upon subtraction of these low‐frequency quasi‐periodic modes, the DFA H parameter estimates suggest absence of the persistence for both precipitation and discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Standard normal homogeneity test as a tool to detect change points in climate-related river discharge variation: case study of the Kupa River Basin

ABSTRACT

The study addresses homogeneity testing of annual discharge time series for eight hydrological stations and five annual climate time series for one weather station in the Kupa River Basin, between Slovenia and Croatia, and global annual average surface temperature time series for the period 1961–2010. The standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) was used to detect both abrupt and gradual linear trend homogeneity breaks. The results reveal natural change points at the beginning of the 1980s. Absolute homogeneity testing of average annual weather station-level air pressure, annual precipitation, differences between precipitation totals and potential evapotranspiration and surface runoff from the independent observation time series confirmed an abrupt shift, also at the beginning of the 1980s. The trend of local air temperature for 1985–2000, which partly coincides with global surface temperature trend for 1974–2005, strengthened the river discharge regime shift since the beginning of the 1980s. These results could improve climate variation monitoring and estimation of the impact of climate variation on the environment in the area. Generally, an indication of climate regime change points and an assessment of their duration could provide significant benefits for the society.     

Bankfull Discharge Recurrence Interval in Gravel-bed Rivers

Bankfull discharge was identified in some 30 gravel-bed rivers representing in total c. 40 gauging stations. The catchment sizes cary from 4km² to nearly 2700km². Bankfull discharge value increases with basin size. In the case of gravel-bed rivers developed on an impermeable substratum, the following equation emerges: Q_b=0·087 A^1·044. Bankfull discharge recurrence interval was determined by fitting maximum annual floods (T_a) into Gumbel's distribution and then using the partial duration series (T_p) in this same distribution. Recurrence interval is below 0·7 years (T_p) for small pebble-bed rivers developed on an impermeable substratum; it reaches 1·1 to 1·5 years when the catchment size of these rivers exceeds 250km². Rivers incised in the soft schists of the Famenne show larger channel capacity at bankfull stage, a small width/depth ratio and thus higher recurrence intervals (1·4–5·3 years with T_a and 1–4·4 years with T_p). Baseflow-dominated gravel-bed streams and sandy or silty rivers experience less frequent bankfull discharges, with a recurrence interval higher than 2 or even 3 years (T_p). © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Annual estimates of water and solute export from 42 tributaries to the Yukon River

Annual export of 11 major and trace solutes for the Yukon River is found to be accurately determined based on summing 42 tributary contributions. These findings provide the first published estimates of tributary specific distribution of solutes within the Yukon River basin. First, we show that annual discharge of the Yukon River can be computed by summing calculated annual discharges from 42 tributaries. Annual discharge for the tributaries is calculated from the basin area and average annual precipitation over that area using a previously published regional regression equation. Based on tributary inputs, we estimate an average annual discharge for the Yukon River of 210 km³ year^–1. This value is within 1% of the average measured annual discharge at the U.S. Geological Survey gaging station near the river terminus at Pilot Station, AK, for water years 2001 through 2005. Next, annual loads for 11 solutes are determined by combining annual discharge with point measurements of solute concentrations in tributary river water. Based on the sum of solutes in tributary water, we find that the Yukon River discharges approximately 33 million metric tons of dissolved solids each year at Pilot Station. Discharged solutes are dominated by cations calcium and magnesium (5.65 × 10⁹ and 1.42 × 10⁹ g year^–1) and anions bicarbonate and sulphate (17.3 × 10⁹ and 5.40 × 10⁹ g year^–1). These loads compare well with loads calculated independently at the three continuous gaging stations along the Yukon River. These findings show how annual solute yields vary throughout a major subarctic river basin and that accurate estimates of total river export can be determined from calculated tributary contributions. Copyright © 2011. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Temporal trend in surface water resources in Tianjin in the Haihe River Basin,China

Considering the highly stochastic nature of the hydrological process, wavelet transform was used to analyse the characteristics, trends and causes of variations in annual run‐off (1917–2006) into Tianjin in the Haihe River Basin. Run‐off was steadily declining due to climate change and human activity and a significant decrease in run‐off along the time series was discovered around the 1960s; however, the change in precipitation was insignificant. The time series of run‐off was heavily influenced by a nonlinear feature and mainly influenced by the natural climate before the 1960s, but after the 1970s the change remained steady, with an annual run‐off that fluctuated between 0·2 and 48·4 mm and was maintained at a low level (9·3 mm). The main cause of the run‐off decline in the 1960s was that more than 1900 reservoirs with a total holding capacity of up to 83 mm were constructed in the upper and middle reaches, which controlled 85% of the total run‐off. These projects have played an active role in the reservoir action and water conservation since they were implemented. At the beginning of the 1980s, the demand for water resources increased with the rapid growth of the population and the large‐scale development of industry and agriculture in the Haihe River Basin, which caused a reduction in run‐off into Tianjin. Overall, the hydrological effects of water storage projects regulating river run‐off were beneficial to flood control, but might cause a serious reduction in river run‐off into Tianjin and the lower reaches of the basin. In addition, a decrease in annual precipitation and changes in temperature in Northern China have also had an adverse effect on natural run‐off, which caused a greater decline in water resources, but this did not have a powerful influence on the overall decline in the run‐off. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of sediment retention by dams on delta shoreline recession: evidences from the Krishna and Godavari deltas,India

River deltas are the major repositories of terrestrial sediment flux into the world's oceans. Reduction in riverine inputs into the deltas due to upstream damming might lead to a relative dominance of waves, tides and currents that are especially exacerbated by coastal subsidence and sea‐level rise ultimately affecting the delta environment. Analysis of multi‐date satellite imagery and maps covering the Krishna and Godavari deltas along the east coast of India revealed a net erosion of 76 km² area along the entire 336‐km‐long twin delta coast during the past 43 years (1965–2008) with a progressively increasing rate from 1·39 km² yr^?1 between 1965 and 1990, to 2·32 km² yr^?1 during 1990–2000 and more or less sustained at 2·25 km² yr^?1 during 2000–2008. At present the Krishna has almost become a closed basin with decreased water discharges into the delta from 61·88 km³ during 1951–1959 to 11·82 km³ by 2000–2008; and the suspended sediment loads from 9 million tons during 1966–1969 to as low as 0·4 million tons by 2000–2005. In the case of the Godavari delta, although the water discharge data do not show any major change, there was almost a three‐fold reduction in its suspended sediment loads from 150·2 million tons during 1970–1979 to 57·2 million tons by 2000–2006. A comparison of data on annual sediment loads recorded along the Krishna and Godavari Rivers showed consistently lower sediment quantities at the locations downstream of dams than at their upstream counterparts. Reports based on bathymetric surveys revealed considerable reduction in the storage capacities of reservoirs behind such dams. Apparently sediment retention at the dams is the main reason for the pronounced coastal erosion along the Krishna and Godavari deltas during the past four decades, which is coeval to the hectic dam construction activity in these river basins. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.     

Decadal trends and causes of sedimentation in the Inner Mongolia reach of the upper Yellow River,China

Using hydrological and sediment data, this study investigated decadal trends in sediment erosion/deposition in the Inner Mongolia reach of the upper Yellow River. The calculated yearly sediment erosion/deposition show that the reach was dominated by aggradation, degradation, and aggradation successively in three periods with the years around 1961 and 1987 as break‐points. By constructing relations between water discharge and sediment load, the contributions of key factors to the changes in sediment erosion/deposition in the reach were quantified. Results show that the sediment retention behind the main stem dams, the increase of natural runoff, and the decrease of sediment inputs from tributaries and upstream watershed were the main factors causing the transition from aggradation during 1955–1961 to degradation during 1962–1987. The reduction of natural runoff, the decrease of sediment retention behind dams, and the rise of sediment supply from tributaries were the key causes of the reversal from degradation in 1962–1987 to aggradation in 1988–2003. Water diversion has played an important role in the long‐term aggradation of the Inner Mongolia reach. The main stem dams had functioned to alleviate siltation after 1961, but their effects on siltation reduction had been gradually diminishing since the 1990s. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climatic control on river discharge simulations,Zackenberg River drainage basin,northeast Greenland

A spatially distributed, physically based, hydrologic modeling system (MIKE SHE) was applied to quantify intra‐ and inter‐annual discharge from the snow and glacierized Zackenberg River drainage basin (512 km²; 20% glacier cover) in northeast Greenland. Evolution of snow accumulation, distribution by wind‐blown snow, blowing‐snow sublimation, and snow and ice surface melt were simulated by a spatially distributed, physically based, snow‐evolution modelling system (SnowModel) and used as input to MIKE SHE. Discharge simulations were performed for three periods 1997–2001 (calibration period), 2001–2005 (validation period), and 2071–2100 (scenario period). The combination of SnowModel and MIKE SHE shows promising results; the timing and magnitude of simulated discharge were generally in accordance with observations (R² = 0·58); however, discrepancies between simulated and observed discharge hydrographs do occur (maximum daily difference up to 44·6 m³ s^?1 and up to 9% difference between observed and simulated cumulative discharge). The model does not perform well when a sudden outburst of glacial dammed water occurs, like the 2005 extreme flood event. The modelling study showed that soil processes related to yearly change in active layer depth and glacial processes (such as changes in yearly glacier area, seasonal changes in the internal glacier drainage system, and the sudden release of glacial bulk water storage) need to be determined, for example, from field studies and incorporated in the models before basin runoff can be quantified more precisely. The SnowModel and MIKE SHE model only include first‐order effects of climate change. For the period 2071–2100, future IPCC A2 and B2 climate scenarios based on the HIRHAM regional climate model and HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations indicated a mean annual Zackenberg runoff about 1·5 orders of magnitude greater (around 650 mmWE year^?1) than from today 1997–2005 (around 430 mmWE year^?1), mainly based on changes in negative glacier net mass balance. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic Changes of Sediment Discharge and the Influencing Factors in the Yellow River,China, for the Recent 90 Years

The dynamic changes in the sediment discharge over 90 years from 1919 to 2008 in the Yellow River in China were assessed on the basis of annual rainfall series and annual sediment series in Shan County hydrological station. The key factors affecting sediment discharge, such as rainfall, and human activities were studied. Anomaly accumulation method and double mass curve were employed to test the stage changes of sediment discharge, and to determine the main factors of sediment decline. Results showed that the annual average sediment discharge under natural conditions was about 16 × 10⁸ t, but the measured annual average sediment during 1919–2008 was 12.71 × 10⁸ t. The highest annual average during the study period was 39.10 × 10⁸ t in 1933 while the lowest was 1.77 × 10⁸ t in 2008. Sediment discharge in the Yellow River experienced two low sediment stages (1924–1931 and 1979–2008) and a high sediment stage (1932–1971), respectively. Since 1979, there was a significant decreasing trend in the sediment discharge, and the main influencing factor was fierce human activities. Annual average sediment discharge in the post‐development period (1979–2008) was 69.7% lower than that in the pre‐development period (1919–1978), with average reduction of 81 and 19% caused by human activities and rainfall, respectively. These results provide important evidence for making protecting policy for water resources quality and environmental safety of the Yellow River.     

Instream flow requirements for sediment transport in the lower Weihe River

Estimation of instream flow requirements for sediment transport (IFRST) in the downstream Weihe River is important for the maintenance of a healthy ecosystem of the river. In this study, the IFRST for the lower Weihe River is estimated on the basis of the observed hydrological data during the period 1960–2001. The results showed that the mean annual IFRSTs for the reach between Lintong and Huaxian and the reach below Huaxian were 6·85 and 7·62 billion m³/year, respectively, and the standard errors were 0·50 and 0·76 billion m³/year, respectively. The results also showed that the Sanmenxia Reservoir is an important driver for the changes in channel morphology and hydraulics, as well as the IFRST. Furthermore, according to the hydrological frequency (p value) estimated from annual instream flow data during the period 1960–2001, four typical years (p = 25%, 50%, 75% and 90%) for the two reaches of the Weihe River were determined. The analysis showed that the IFRST has a negative power functional relationship with the sediment concentration. On the basis of the efficiency coefficients (R²) during three sub‐periods 1960–1973, 1974–1990 and 1991–2001, the annual IFRSTs in the above two reaches for the four typical years were estimated under different deposition and erosion–deposition conditions. The results provide useful references for restoration and water resource management of the Weihe River. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trends in annual discharge from the Yangtze River to the sea (1865–2004) / Tendances et épisodes extrêmes dans les débits annuels du Fleuve Yangtze débouchant dans la mer (1865–2004)

Abstract

Uninterrupted records of annual discharge from the Yangtze River to the sea (at Datong Hydrographical Station) began in the 1950s. This series shows no significant trend. However, at Hankou, a station upstream from Datong, annual discharges have been observed since 1865 almost without gaps. The annual discharges at Datong and Hankou were found to be closely correlated. Based on the regression equation, the missing annual discharges at Datong were estimated and a time series from 1865 to 2004 was established. Although the annual discharge has varied greatly, it shows a significant decreasing trend. The trendline revealed an 8.2% decrease from 1865 to 2004. The decrease in discharge was attributed to increases in water consumption and reservoir construction, while the interannual variations were related to climate variability. The decreasing trend in discharge is expected to continue in the coming decades due to human activities. This decreasing trend should be taken into account in the decision making on the South-to-North-Water Diversion projects.     

Trend and change-point analyses of streamflow and sediment discharge in the Yellow River during 1950–2005

Abstract

The objectives of this work are: (a) to statistically test and quantify the decreasing trends of streamflow and sediment discharge of the Yellow River in China during 1950–2005, (b) to identify change points or transition years of the decreasing trends, and (c) to diagnose whether the decreasing trends were caused by precipitation changes or human intervention, or both. The results show that significant decreasing trends in annual streamflow and sediment discharge have existed since the late 1950s at three stations located in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yellow River (P?=?0.01). Change-point analyses further revealed that transition years existed and that rapid decline in streamflow and sediment discharge began in 1985 in most parts of the basin (P?=?0.05). Adoption of conservation measures in the 1980s and 1990s corroborates the identified transition years. Double-mass curves of precipitation vs streamflow (sediment) for the periods before and after the transition years show remarkable decreases in proportionality of streamflow (sediment) generation. All percentiles of streamflow and sediment discharge after the transition years showed rapid reduction. In the absence of significantly decreasing precipitation trends, it is concluded that the decreasing trends were very likely caused by human intervention. Relative to the period before the transition, human intervention during 1985–2005 reduced cumulative streamflow by 13.5, 14.3 and 24.6% and cumulative sediment discharge by 29.0, 24.8 and 26.5%, at Toudaoguai, Huayuankou and Lijin, respectively, showing the quantitative conservation effect in the basin.

Citation Gao, P., Zhang, X.-C., Mu, X.-M., Wang, F., Li, R. & Zhang, X. (2010) Trend and change-point analyses of streamflow and sediment discharge in the Yellow River during 1950–2005. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(2), 275–285.     

Periodic changes of stream flow in the last 40 years in Tarim River Basin,Xinjiang, China

Using the annual runoff series for the last 40 years from the Tarim River Basin, their periodic properties were analysed and their future trends predicted. Runoff data were collected at five hydrological gauging stations in the three main branches of the Tarim River. An extrapolation method and variance analysis were used to identify periods in annual runoff, and a trend superposition model to predict future changes. Results show that, there is a common period of 17 years in annual runoff changes for all three branches, with Hotan River showing an additional period of 10 years. Based on this trend, it is suggested that the annual runoff of the Tarim River should decrease in the period of 2006–2008, but increase in year 2009, and the flow may possibly begin to decrease significantly in year 2010. The long term trend of runoff in Tarim Basin has followed the global prediction of GCMs, i.e. began to increase in accordance with global increase of air temperature and precipitation in 1990. However, it has shown a local feature of uneven changes among the head streams in the same basin, which needs to be further investigated. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.