Modelling evapotranspiration in an alpine grassland ecosystem on Qinghai‐Tibetan plateau

Thus far, measurements and estimations of actual evapotranspiration (ET) from high‐altitude grassland ecosystems in remote areas like the Qinghai‐Tibetan plateau are still insufficient. To address these issues, a comparison between the results of the eddy covariance (EC) measurements and the estimates, considering the Katerji and Perrier (KP), the Todorovic (TD) and the Priestley–Taylor (PT) models, was carried out over an alpine grassland (38^o03'1.7'' N, 100^o 27’ 26'' E; 3032 m a.s.l.) during the growing seasons in 2008 and 2009. The results indicated that the KP model after a particularly simple calibration gave the most effective ET values in different time scales, the PT model slightly underestimate ET at night and the TD model significantly overestimated ET at noon. In addition, the canopy resistance calculated by the TD model was completely different from that calculated using the inverted EC‐measured data and the KP model, which may be due to some unrealistic assumptions made by the TD model. The KP parameters were a = 0.17 and b = 1.50 for the alpine grassland and appeared to be interannually stable. However, the PT parameter showed some interannual variations (α = 0.83 and 0.74 for 2008 and 2009, respectively). Therefore, the KP model was preferred to estimate the actual ET at both hourly and daily time scales. The PT model, being the simplest approach and field condition dependent, was recommended when available weather data were rare. On the contrary, the TD model always overestimated the actual ET and should be avoided in case of the alpine grassland ecosystems. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A coupled surface resistance model to estimate crop evapotranspiration in arid region of northwest China

The Penman–Monteith (PM) model has been widely used to estimate crop evapotranspiration (ET), but it performs poorly with sparse vegetation. By combining the Jarvis canopy resistance model and the soil resistance model, we have developed a coupled surface resistance model to address this issue. Maize field and vineyard ET, measured by the eddy covariance method during 2007 and 2008, were used to test the estimations produced by the PM model combined with our coupled surface resistance model and Jarvis model, respectively. Results indicate that PM model combined with the coupled surface resistance model produces higher determination coefficient and lower root mean square error when compared with the PM–Jarvis method, either for maize field or for the sparse vineyard, on half‐hourly or daily time scales. Our study confirms that the coupled surface resistance model produces higher accuracy than the Jarvis model and provides a method to calculate resistance parameters for using the PM model to simulate the ET of sparse vegetation. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Artificial neural network models for estimating regional reference evapotranspiration based on climate factors

Evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the basic components of the hydrologic cycle and is essential for estimating irrigation water requirements. In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) model for reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) calculation was investigated. ANNs were trained and tested for arid (west), semi‐arid (middle) and sub‐humid (east) areas of the Inner Mongolia district of China. Three or four climate factors, i.e. air temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (U) and duration of sunshine (N) from 135 meteorological stations distributed throughout the study area, were used as the inputs of the ANNs. A comparison was conducted between the estimates provided by the ANNs and by multilinear regression (MLR). The results showed that ANNs using the climatic data successfully estimated ET₀ and the ANNs simulated ET₀ better than the MLRs. The ANNs with four inputs were more accurate than those with three inputs. The errors of the ANNs with four inputs were lower (with RMSE of 0·130 mm d^?1, RE of 2·7% and R² of 0·986) in the semi‐arid area than in the other two areas, but the errors of the ANNs with three inputs were lower in the sub‐humid area (with RMSE of 0·21 mm d^?1, RE of 5·2% and R² of 0·961. For the different seasons, the results indicated that the highest errors occurred in September and the lowest in April for the ANNs with four inputs. Similarly, the errors were higher in September for the ANNs with three inputs. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A simple temperature method for the estimation of evapotranspiration

Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) is essential in water resources management and hydrological practices. Estimation of ET in areas, where adequate meteorological data are not available, is one of the challenges faced by water resource managers. Hence, a simplified approach, which is less data intensive, is crucial. The FAO‐56 Penman–Monteith (FAO‐56 PM) is a sole global standard method, but it requires numerous weather data for the estimation of reference ET. A new simple temperature method is developed, which uses only maximum temperature data to estimate ET. Ten class I weather stations data were collected from the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia. This method was compared with the global standard PM method, the observed Piche evaporimeter data, and the well‐known Hargreaves (HAR) temperature method. The coefficient of determination (R²) of the new method was as high as 0.74, 0.75, and 0.91, when compared with that of PM reference evapotranspiration (ET_o), Piche evaporimeter data, and HAR methods, respectively. The annual average R² over the ten stations when compared with PM, Piche, and HAR methods were 0.65, 0.67, and 0.84, respectively. The Nash–Sutcliff efficiency of the new method compared with that of PM was as high as 0.67. The method was able to estimate daily ET with an average root mean square error and an average absolute mean error of 0.59 and 0.47 mm, respectively, from the PM ET_o method. The method was also tested in dry and wet seasons and found to perform well in both seasons. The average R² of the new method with the HAR method was 0.82 and 0.84 in dry and wet seasons, respectively. During validation, the average R² and Nash–Sutcliff values when compared with Piche evaporation were 0.67 and 0.51, respectively. The method could be used for the estimation of daily ET_o where there are insufficient data. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating evapotranspiration for a temperate salt marsh,Newcastle, Australia

Evapotranspiration was studied at a salt marsh site in the Hunter River estuary, NSW, Australia, during 1996–8. Estimates of actual evapotranspiration (E_a) were obtained for three sites using the eddy correlation method. These values were compared with results obtained with the Penman and Penman–Monteith equations, and with pan evaporation. The Penman–Monteith method was found to be most reliable in estimating daily and hourly evapotranspiration. Surface resistance values averaging 12 s m^?1 were derived from the eddy correlation estimates. Recent tidal flooding and rainfall were found to decrease surface resistance and increase E_a/E_p ratios. Estimates of evapotranspiration obtained using the Penman–Monteith method were shown to be sensitive to changes in surface resistance, canopy height and the method used to estimate net radiation from incoming solar radiation. These results underline the importance of accurately estimating such parameters based on site‐specific data rather than relying on empirical equations, which are derived primarily for crops and forests. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Thermodynamic consistency of potential evapotranspiration estimates in Florida

This study investigates the validity of fundamental assumptions regarding the partitioning of energy that are implicit in the Penman–Monteith (PM) and Priestly–Taylor (PT) models of potential evapotranspiration (PET). Both these models require energy conservation, but differ in the partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes as measured by the Bowen ratio. Application of these models at four research sites in Florida collectively show that these models can be calibrated to provide adequate PET prediction at all sites. The prediction of Bowen ratios using the calibrated PET models showed that the PT model is preferable for lakes and is acceptable for marsh and forest; the crop‐coefficient application of the PM model is preferable for grass and is acceptable for marsh; and the standard PM model is acceptable for marsh. For the marsh and forest covers, the margins of preference between the three models are not very strong. This investigation was limited to climatic conditions in Florida and caution should be exercised in extending these results to other sites and climates. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of potential evapotranspiration in the mountainous Panama Canal watershed

Spatially distributed hydrometeorological and plant information within the mountainous tropical Panama Canal watershed is used to estimate parameters of the Penman–Monteith evapotranspiration formulation. Hydrometeorological data from a few surface climate stations located at low elevations in the watershed are complemented by (a) typical wet‐ and dry‐season fields of temperature, wind, water vapour and pressure produced by a mesoscale atmospheric model with a 3 × 3 km² spatial and hourly temporal resolution, and (b) leaf area index fields estimated over the watershed during a few years using satellite data with two different spatial and temporal resolutions. The mesoscale model estimates of spatially distributed surface hydrometeorological variables provide the basis for the extrapolation of the surface climate station data to produce input for the Penman–Monteith equation. The satellite information and existing digital spatial databases of land use and land cover form the basis for the estimation of Penman–Monteith spatially distributed parameter values. Spatially distributed 3 × 3 km² potential evapotranspiration estimates are obtained for the 3300 km² Panama Canal watershed. Estimates for Gatun Lake within the watershed are found to reproduce well the monthly and annual lake evaporation obtained from submerged pans. Sensitivity analysis results of potential evapotranspiration estimates with respect to cloud cover, dew formation, leaf area index distribution and mesoscale model estimates of surface climate are presented and discussed. The main conclusion is that even the limited spatially distributed hydrometeorological and plant information used in this study contributes significantly toward explaining the substantial spatial variability of potential evapotranspiration in the watershed. These results also allow the determination of key locations within the watershed where additional surface stations may be profitably placed. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A comparison of ASCE and FAO-56 reference evapotranspiration for a 15-min time step in humid climate conditions

Many applications in diverse disciplines require estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) at hourly or smaller time steps. The primary objectives of this study were to compare the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) and FAO-56 Penman–Monteith equations for 15-min ET₀ (ET_{0,15-min,ASCE} and ET_0,15-min,FAO) estimations for humid climate conditions and to compare the 24 h sum of ASCE (ET_0,24 h,ASCE) and FAO-56 15-min ET₀ (ET_0,24 h,FAO) with the daily ET₀ (ET_0,d,FAO) computed from the daily FAO-56 equation, which is identical to ASCE daily ET₀ equation. Ten-year, i.e., 1997–2006 continuous 15-min and daily weather data for 11 representative and well-distributed sites throughout Georgia, USA were used. It was evident that during the day, ET_{0,15-min,ASCE} was higher than ET_0,15-min,FAO due to a lower surface resistance parameter value, while at night ET_{0,15-min,ASCE} was lower than ET_0,15-min,FAO due to a higher surface resistance parameter value. The ET_0,15-min,FAO was about 5% less than ET_{0,15-min,ASCE} and ET_0,24 h,FAO was about 5% lower than ET_0,24 h,ASCE. The difference between ET_{0,15-min,ASCE} and ET_0,15-min,FAO during the day and night was highly dependent on wind speed. During the three summer months, i.e., June, July and August, on average, ET_0,24 h,FAO was only 1% higher than ET_0,d,FAO while ET_0,24 h,ASCE was 5% higher than ET_0,d,FAO. For the entire year, ET_0,24 h,FAO was 8% higher than ET_0,d,FAO while ET_0,24 h,ASCE was 13% higher than ET_0,d,FAO. The ET_0,24 h,FAO and ET_0,d,FAO had a better agreement than ET_0,24 h,ASCE and ET_0,d,FAO throughout the year and during the summer months. It is also worth noting that the daily calculations for FAO-56 and ASCE were identical. These results demonstrated that for applications that require 15-min time steps or daily ET₀ for the entire year, the use of ET_0,15-min,FAO and ET_0,24 h,FAO, respectively, will yield more consistent outcomes. The use of ET_0,d,FAO during the summer months can be as accurate as the use of ET_0,24 h,FAO for applications that require daily time steps, such as irrigation scheduling.     

Comparison of three models to estimate evapotranspiration for a temperate mixed forest

Forest evapotranspiration is one of the main components in the regional water budget. A comparison between measured and estimated eddy covariance (EC) data, considering the Katerji–Perrier (KP), Todorovic (TD) and Priestley–Taylor (PT) actual evapotranspiration methods, was carried out. These models, relying on more easily obtainable data, are valuable when long‐term direct measurements are not available. The objective of this paper is to compare the effectivity of these three models. In this paper, experimental data were obtained within the temperate mixed forest of broad‐leaved and coniferous trees of the Changbai Mountains in northeastern China during the growing seasons of 2003 to 2005. The KP method gave the most effective values for half‐hourly and daily evapotranspiration computed by summing up half‐hourly estimates, and the TD method overestimated evapotranspiration by about 30%. The diurnal courses of estimated and measured evapotranspiration showed bell curves, similar to that of net radiation, except for a slight increase at about 14:30 solar time due to a peak value of vapour pressure deficit (VPD). For the case of daily evapotranspiration using daily mean micrometeorological variables, the PT method presented the closest values to the measurements. Accuracy of estimation related to VPD negatively (especially for VPD > 1·5 kPa). The KP parameters, considered to be vegetation dependent, were a = 0·545 and b = 1·31 at the experimental site. A constant PT parameter (α = 1·18) was applied to estimated evapotranspiration. Daily values of α responded to VPD (negatively) more strongly than to soil moisture (positively) in this forest. The experiment showed the inherent limits and advantages of the three methods. The KP method, a semi‐empirical approach, was preferred to estimate half‐hourly evapotranspiration. The TD method was a mechanistic approach to estimate reference evapotranspiration and always overestimated actual evapotranspiration. The PT method, being site dependent and the simplest approach, was effective enough to estimate large time‐scale (at least daily) evapotranspiration. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variation of reference evapotranspiration and its contributing climatic factors in the Poyang Lake catchment,China

By using linear regression (parametric), Mann–Kendall (nonparametric) and attribution analysis methods, this study systematically analysed the changing properties of reference evapotranspiration (ETr) calculated using the Penman–Monteith method over the Poyang Lake catchment during 1960–2008 and investigated the contribution of major climatic variables to ETr changes and their temporal evolution. Generally, a significant decreasing trend of annual ETr is found in the catchment. The decrease of annual ETr in the Poyang Lake basin is mostly affected by the decline of summer ETr. Over the study period, climatic variables, i.e. sunshine duration (SD), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (WS) and vapour pressure all showed decreasing trends, whereas mean daily temperature (DT) increased significantly. Multivariate regression analysis indicated that SD is the most sensitive climatic variable to the variability of ETr on annual basis, followed by RH, WS and DT, whereas the effect of vapour pressure is obscure. Although recent warming trend and decrease of relative humidity over the catchment could have increased ETr, the combined effect of shortened SD and reduced WS negated the effect and caused significant decrease of ETr. Our investigation reveals that the relative contributions of climatic variables to ETr are temporally unstable and vary considerably with large fluctuation. In consideration of the changes of climatic variables over time, further analysis indicated that changes of mean annual ETr in 1970–2008 were primarily affected by SD followed by WS, RH and DT with reference to 1960s. However, WS became the predominant factor during the period 2000–2008 compared with reference period 1960s, and followed by SD. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

M5 model tree based modelling of reference evapotranspiration

This paper investigates the potential of M5 model tree based regression approach to model daily reference evapotranspiration using climatic data of Davis station maintained by California irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS). Four inputs including solar radiation, average air temperature, average relative humidity, and average wind speed whereas reference evapotranspiration calculated using a relation provided by the CIMIS was used as output. To compare the performance of M5 model tree in predicting the reference evapotranspiration, FAO–56 Penman–Monteith equation and calibrated Hargreaves–Samani relation was used. A comparison of results suggests that M5 model tree approach works well in comparison to both FAO–56 and calibrated Hargreaves–Samani relations. To judge the generalization capability of M5 model tree approach, model created by using the Davis data set was tested with the datasets of four different sites. Results from this part of the study suggest that M5 model tree could successfully be employed in modeling the reference evapotranspiration. Further, sensitivity analysis with M5 model tree approach suggests the suitability of solar radiation, average air temperature, average relative humidity, and average wind speed as input parameters to model the reference evapotranspiration Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Direct and indirect methods to simulate the actual evapotranspiration of an irrigated overhead table grape vineyard under Mediterranean conditions

Two methods, indirect and direct, for simulating the actual evapotranspiration (E) were applied to an irrigated overhead table grape vineyard during summer, situated in the Mediterranean region (south Italy), over two successive years. The first method, indirect but more practical, uses the crop coefficient (K_c) approach and requires determination of the reference evapotranspiration E₀ (FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) method). This method underestimated on average by 17% the daily values of the actual evapotranspiration E. The analysis in this paper shows that the values of K_c for the table grapes determined by the FAO method seem to not be valid in our experimental conditions. Similar conclusions can be found in the literature for the table grape cultivated under different experimental conditions and using different training systems. The second method, is a direct method for estimating the evapotranspiration. It requires development of a model for the overhead table grape vineyard E, following the Penman–Monteith one‐step approach, and using standard meteorological variables as inputs for the determination of the canopy resistance. This method, which needs a particularly simple calibration, provided a better simulation of the hourly and daily evapotranspiration than the indirect method. In additon, the standard error of the daily values for the direct method ( ± 0 · 41 mm) was about 50% lower than that obtained for the indirect method, also when the indirect method used a locally calibrated coefficient K_c instead of a generic K_c. Both, for practical application and theoretical issues, the advantages and disadvantages linked to the use of each tested method are discussed in detail. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Greater effect of canopy conductance in regulating the energy partition above the maize field in arid northwest China

The partition of available energy into evapotranspiration affected by environmental and physiological factors is critical in understanding the water cycle and optimizing the water management in the field. Our study attempted to accurately quantify the environmental and physiological control on variability in evaporative fraction (EF) based on the Penman–Monteith model. The eddy covariance method was used to measure water flux over a canopy and then calculate the EF above a maize field in northwest China in 2007. Results indicate that the EF was lower in other growth stages than in the heading stage, so the EF value in the heading stage was taken as the standard value. The decreases in EF caused by canopy conductance and environmental factors were 0.176 and ?0.026, accounting for 117% and ?17% of the total difference in EF, respectively. Such results were mainly due to the following: (1) the variation of maize canopy conductance was greater than that of the environmental factors, such as air temperature, air humidity, wind speed and radiation; (2) the EF of the maize was more sensitive to variation in canopy conductance than the environmental factor. Our study revealed that crop physiological factor played an important role in determining the energy partition processes and reducing the sensible heat flux in the maize field. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatiotemporal variations and abrupt changes of potential evapotranspiration and its sensitivity to key meteorological variables in the Wei River basin,China

Evapotranspiration is an important component of hydrological cycle and a key input to hydrological models. Therefore, analysis of the spatiotemporal variation of potential evapotranspiration (PET) will help a better understanding of climate change and its effect on hydrological cycle and water resources. In this study, the Penman–Monteith method was used to estimate PET in the Wei River basin (WRB) in China based on daily data at 21 meteorological stations during 1959–2008. Spatial distribution and temporal trends of annual and seasonal PET were analysed by using the Spline interpolation method and the Mann–Kendall test method. Abrupt changes were detected by using the Pettitt test method. In order to explore the contribution of key meteorological variables to the variation of PET, the sensitivity coefficients method was employed in this study. The results showed that: (1) mean annual and seasonal PET in the WRB was generally decreasing from northeast to southwest. Summer and spring made the major contributions to the annual values; (2) annual and seasonal PET series in most part of the WRB exhibited increasing trends; (3) abrupt changes appeared in 1993 for annual and spring PET series for the entire basin, while summer value series was detected in the late 1970s. (4) Relative humidity was the most sensitive variable for PET in general for the WRB, followed by wind speed, air temperature and solar radiation. In the headwater and outlet of the WRB, relative humidity and air temperature were the most sensitive variables to PET, while relative humidity and wind speed were more influential in most part of the middle‐lower region. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Parametric calibration of the Hargreaves–Samani equation for use at new locations

The Hargreaves–Samani (HS) evapotranspiration equation is very useful for the on‐site irrigation management in data‐short situations such as small and midsize farms and landscaped areas. Although much work has been performed to improve the precision of the evapotranspiration (ET_o) estimates for use at new locations, the results have not been consistent and many have not been confirmed by other works. The purpose of this study was to review and to evaluate the seven most promising parameters used for the calibration of the HS evapotranspiration equation, using two different regions: California and Bolivia. The results of this study show that annual correlations between HS and Penman–Monteith can be misleading because the correlation is poor in the humid months and improves progressively along the dry season until the first rains. The average monthly wind speed can be used for both spatial and seasonal calibration of the HS equation, especially during the irrigation season. Elevation and precipitation can be used to calibrate the HS equation when no reference ET_o values are available at nearby stations. The monthly value of K_T calculated from solar radiation follows a parabolic function along the year and should not be used for improving the estimates of the HS equation because the clearness index produces better results than actual solar radiation measurements. The results also indicate that the use of distance to coast, temperature range and temperature parameter does not improve the precision of the HS equation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatiotemporal variation and driving forces of reference evapotranspiration in Jing River Basin,northwest China

Evapotranspiration is an important component of the hydrological cycle, which integrates atmospheric demands and surface conditions. Research on spatial and temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) enables understanding of climate change and its effects on hydrological processes and water resources. In this study, ET_o was estimated by the FAO‐56 Penman–Monteith method in the Jing River Basin in China, based on daily data from 37 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2005. ET_o trends were detected by the Mann–Kendall test in annual, seasonal, and monthly timescales. Sensitivity coefficients were used to examine the contribution of important meteorological variables to ET_o. The influence of agricultural activities, especially irrigation on ET_o was also analyzed. We found that ET_o showed a decreasing trend in most of the basin in all seasons, except for autumn, which showed an increasing trend. Mean maximum temperature was generally the most sensitive parameter for ET_o, followed by relative humidity, solar radiation, mean minimum temperature, and wind speed. Wind speed was the most dominant factor for the declining trend in ET_o. The more significant decrease in ET_o for agricultural and irrigation stations was mainly because of the more significant decrease in wind speed and sunshine hours, a mitigation in climate warming, and more significant increase in relative humidity compared with natural stations and non‐irrigation stations. Changes in ET_o and the sensitivity coefficient of meteorological variables in relation to ET_o were also affected by topography. Better understanding of ET_o response to climate change will enable efficient use of agricultural production and water resources, which could improve the ecological environment in Jing River Basin. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of methods for applying the Priestley–Taylor equation at a regional scale

The scenario assumed for this study was that of a region with a complete or first‐order weather station surrounded by a network of second‐order stations, where only monthly air temperature data were available. The objective was to evaluate procedures to estimate the monthly α parameter of the Priestley–Taylor equation in the second‐order stations by adjusting and extrapolating α values determined at the first‐order station. These procedures were applied in two climatic zones of north‐east Spain with semi‐arid continental and semi‐arid Mediterranean climates, respectively. Procedure A assumed α to be constant over each zone for each month (direct extrapolation). Procedure B accounted for differences in vapour pressure deficit and available energy for evapotranspiration between the first‐ and second‐order stations. Procedure C was based on equating the Penman–Monteith (P–M) and Priestley–Taylor (P–T) equations on a monthly basis to solve for α. Methods to estimate monthly mean vapour pressure deficit, net radiation and wind speed were developed and evaluated. A total of 11 automated first‐order weather stations with a minimum period of record of 6 years (ranging from 6 to 10 years) were used for this study. Six of these stations were located in the continental zone and five in the Mediterranean zone. One station in each zone was assumed to be first‐order whereas the remainder were taken as second‐order stations. Monthly α parameters were calibrated using P–M reference crop evapotranspiration (ET₀) values, calculated hourly and integrated for monthly periods, which were taken as ‘true’ values of ET₀. For the extrapolation of monthly α parameters, procedure A was found to perform slightly better than procedure B in the Mediterranean zone. The opposite was true in the continental zone. Procedure C had the worst performance owing to the non‐linearity of the P–M equation and errors in the estimation of monthly available energy, vapour pressure deficit and wind speed. Procedures A and B are simpler and performed better. Overall, monthly P–T ET₀ estimates using extrapolated α parameters and R_n?G values were in a reasonable agreement with P–M ET₀ calculated on an hourly basis and integrated for monthly periods. The methods presented for the spatial extrapolation of monthly available energy, vapour pressure deficit and wind speed from first‐ to second‐order stations could be useful for other applications. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatiotemporal variations of reference evapotranspiration in recent five decades in the arid land of Northwestern China

Spatial and temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) are useful for regional agricultural and water resources management as well as required in most distributed hydrological modelling. In the current study, the Penman–Monteith estimated ET₀ in the arid land of Northwestern China has been explicitly explored using the Mann–Kendall test. Most stations in the study region exhibited significant decreasing trend of ET₀ (P < 0.05) with only few occasions showing significant increasing trend (P < 0.05), despite the increase of temperature in the entire region. Analysis results revealed that the overall decreasing wind speed contributed most to the decreasing trend of ET₀, whereas the contributions of relative humidity and sunshine duration were limited. Temperature played the second important role on determining ET₀ trend, but its effect was opposite to that of wind speed and was largely offset by the decreasing wind speed. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis suggested the impact of temperature to ET₀ was much larger than formerly reported if its effect on saturated vapour deficit was taken into account. The results obtained in the current study will help for better understanding of the effects of climate changes to water resource management in the arid land of northwest China. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.