青藏高原植被变化与地表热源及中国降水关系的初步分析

利用设在青藏高原的5个自动气象站（AWS）近地层梯度观测资料、归一化植被指数（GIMMS NDVI）和中国624个台站月降水资料,初步分析了青藏高原植被变化与地表热源及中国降水的关系．结果表明：青藏高原植被与地表热源之间存在明显的正相关关系．高原西部感热与NDVI的正相关关系较高原东部显著,而高原东部地表潜热与NDVI的正相关关系则好于高原西部．植被改善后,各季节地表热源以增加为主,尤其夏季,热源增量最大;冬、春季感热对地表热源增量贡献较大,潜热贡献相对较小;夏、秋季感热与潜热对地表热源增量贡献同等重要．青藏高原植被与中国夏季降水相关系数从南到北,呈“＋-＋”带状分布．植被变化引起的高原地表加热异常可能是影响中国夏季降水的重要因子之一．     

中国植被碳通量与氮沉降通量百年尺度时空变化及其与气候的关系

利用7个地球系统模式的植被净初级生产力(NPP)对中国地区1901～2005年植被碳通量的时空变化进行了研究,并结合气候因子分析了NPP的变化与气温、降水和辐射的关系;文章还进一步研究了中国地区1901～2005年氮沉降通量NH_x、NO_y的时空变化,并分析了NH_x、NO_y的变化与气温、降水和NPP的关系.结果表明:(1)近百年来中国地区NPP呈现上升趋势,模式集合平均的趋势系数为0.88, NPP的分布趋势总体呈现出北低南高,由西北到东南逐渐增加的特征.温度、降水、光照在该梯度方向上均有利于植物生长,其中模式集合平均NPP与气温、降水、长波辐射和短波辐射相关系数分别为0.88、0.73、0.91和0.67.(2)近百年来中国地区NH_x、NO_y呈现上升趋势,其中趋势系数分别为0.98和0.98,且通过了99.9%的信度检验. NH_x和NO_y总体呈现出北低南高,由西北到东南呈阶梯状逐渐增加的特征.(3) NH_x和NO_y与气温之间的相关系数空间分布大体相似,只是数值略有差异,与气温相关系数空间分布从东到西是正相关-负相关-正相关相间的分布; NH_x和NO_y与降水之间的相关系数空间分布也是大体相似,但降水相关系数空间分布相对比较复杂,在季风区从北到南呈正相关-负相关-正相关-负相关-正相关的相间分布,非季风区从东到西呈负相关-正相关-负相关-正相关的相间分布.(4) NH_x和NO_y与NPP之间的相关系数空间分布总体一致,与NPP相关系数空间分布相对比较复杂,其中模式集合平均的分布在东北地区和西南地区为正相关值区,其他地区是正相关与负相关交替分布.     

基于镭同位素分布的黄海和东海垂直混合速率计算

在黄海和东海采样测定了水体中的镭同位素分布,用平流扩散模型描述镭同位素分布,最小二乘方法计算了垂直涡动扩散系数和上升流或下降流流速.结果给出北黄海中部、南黄海中部、浙江沿岸和台湾北部海域存在上升流,流速分别为0.46×10^-3cm·s^-1、0.17×10^-3~1.39×10^-3cm·s^-1、2.02×10^-3~3.04×10^-3 cm·s^-1和1.06×10^-3~2.51×10^-3 cm·s^-1.北黄海中部和东海东北部存在下降流.流速分别为-2.30×10^-3 cm·s^-1和-0.61×10^-3~-2.10×10^-3 cm·s^-1.计算同时给出的垂直涡动扩散系数为5.84~48.2 cm²·s^-1,平均值为22.3 cm²·s^-1.北黄海和浙江沿岸上升流流速与文献的结果一致;北黄海中部存在下降流与文献的结论一致.本研究结果与文献结果一致是对所建立的方法的肯定,也是对文献研究结果的支持.     

基于MODIS数据的博斯腾湖流域植被变化及其与气候因子的关系

以博斯腾湖流域为研究区,基于2001-2016年时间序列的MODIS NDVI数据分析了研究区植被的时空变化趋势,并结合流域气象站点的气温、降水、日照时数和相对湿度数据分析了植被生长季累积NDVI和16天NDVI与气候因子之间的响应特征.结果表明:(1)流域植被覆盖变化呈改善趋势,生长季累积NDVI年变化率为0.014 a-1,16天NDVI变化率均为正值,植被改善趋势显著区域主要分布在高山草原湿地和农业灌溉区边缘的新增农田.(2)植被生长季累积NDVI主要受降水和相对湿度影响,植被总体生产力与水分条件关系最密切,生长季逐16天NDVI与同期气温和日照时数在植被生长初期和末期关系显著,而与降水没有显著的相关性,说明植被短期瞬时长势对热量条件更为敏感.(3)在植被生长不同阶段对气候变化具有不同的滞后效应,其中植被生长初期和末期对气温有0.5~1个月的滞后,生长盛期对降水有0.5~3个月的滞后、日照时数有1.5~2.5个月的滞后、相对湿度有0.5~2.5个月的滞后,揭示了植被不同生长阶段水热条件对其生长韵律的控制差异.     

气候变化和人类活动对黄土高原植被覆盖变化的影响

利用GIMMS和SPOT VGT两种归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据对黄土高原地区1981~2006年期间植被覆盖的时空变化进行了研究, 并从气候变化和人类活动的角度分析了植被覆盖变化的原因. 黄土高原地区植被覆盖经历了以下4个阶段: ① 1981~1989年植被覆盖持续增加时期; ② 1990~1998年以小幅波动为特征的相对稳定时期; ③ 1999~2001年植被覆盖迅速下降时期; ④ 2002~2006年植被覆盖进入迅速上升时期. 黄土高原地区植被覆盖变化存在显著的空间差异, 内蒙古和宁夏沿黄农业灌溉区和鄂尔多斯退耕还林还草生态恢复区的植被覆盖明显提高, 而黄土丘陵沟壑区和六盘山、秦岭北坡等山地森林区的植被覆盖明显退化. 从不同的植被类型来看, 沙地、草地和耕地的NDVI上升趋势显著, 而森林植被的NDVI呈明显的下降趋势. 研究表明: 植被覆盖变化是气候变化和人类活动共同作用的结果. 黄土高原地区气候变暖在加剧土壤干燥化抑制夏季植被生长的同时, 提高了春、秋季节植被生长活性, 延长了植被生长期. 黄土高原地区植被覆盖和降水关系密切, 降水变化是植被覆盖变化的重要原因. 农业生产水平的提高致使农业区NDVI在不断上升, 同时, 正在黄土高原大规模进行的退耕还林还草工程建设, 其生态效应也正在呈现.     

插值公式、相关系数和采样间隔对GRACE Follow-On 星间加速度精度的影响

本文基于星间加速度法开展了插值公式、相关系数和采样间隔对GRACE Follow-On星间加速度精度影响的研究. 模拟结果表明:1)适当增加数值微分公式的插值点数可有效提高插值精度. 基于9点Newton插值公式,星间加速度的插值误差为4.401×10^-13 m·s^-2,分别基于7点、5点和3点插值公式,插值误差增加了1.192倍、6.912倍和274.029倍. 2)适当增大相关系数可有效降低星间加速度的误差. 基于相关系数0.99,星间加速度方差为3.777×10^-24 m²·s^-4,分别基于相关系数0.90、0.70、0.50和0.00,方差增加了9.780倍、22.404倍、26.217倍和26.820倍. 3)随着采样间隔增大,星间加速度方差逐渐降低,但卫星观测值的空间分辨率也同时降低,因此合理选取采样间隔有利于地球重力场精度的提高. 4)基于9点Newton插值公式、相关系数(K波段测量系统星间距离和星间速度0.85、GPS轨道位置和轨道速度0.95、星载加速度计非保守力0.90)和采样间隔10 s,利用预处理共轭梯度迭代法,精确和快速反演了120阶GRACE Follow-On地球重力场,在120阶处累计大地水准面精度为4.602×10^-4 m.     

加利福尼亚湾温盐阶梯的发现

基于历史CTD数据和EW0210航次的部分地震测线,在加利福尼亚湾首次发现了盐指型温盐阶梯,并对其尺度和规模有了较为清晰的认识.经分析发现在该区域水深100～600 m范围内主要发育有层厚较大的温盐阶梯,其中均匀混合层厚度可达几十米甚至上百米,水平方向上连续性好,界面处热通量主要集中在-0.1～-0.2 W·m^-2,盐通量主要集中在-1×10^-7～-2×10^-7m·s^-1.受地形引起的内潮波或涡旋的影响,阶梯层抖动剧烈,上下起伏较大,部分反射层垂向位移甚至可达80 m,由此推测该阶梯结构可能将会被破坏.     

爆炸地震的能量转换系数计算及其应用

本文提出爆炸地震的能量转换系数计算公式 α=(k·10^-2)^3/n·10^-3和 α=2.03·10^-3 multiply from i=1 to 6 （F_i）上式中k、n为爆炸地震效应的统计参数。下式中F_i（i=1,2,…,6）为反映爆炸方式和场地条件的影响因子。 利用爆炸地震的能量转换系数α,还可建立不同爆炸方式的药量等效系数η: η=α/α₀和爆炸震级估算公式 M=4.42+0.53logαQ.上式中α₀为井下组合（标准）爆破的转换系数。下式中Q为以吨（t）为单位的药量（TNT）。     

郑州地震监测中心站连续重力仪背景噪声水平分析

选取2009—2019年郑州地震监测中心站连续重力观测数据,结合地震频段观测数据精度,分析中心站背景噪声水平,结果发现：①潮汐和气压等因素对重力观测数据的亚地震频段和潮汐频段的平均功率谱密度值(PSD)影响较大,在地震频段影响较小;②通过对月地震噪声等级值(SNM)的分析,发现较小值多集中在每年2月(农历春节前后);③在研究时段内,地震频段噪声等级SNM值范围在(3.107—3.268)×10^-16 (m·s^-2)²/Hz,重力固体潮汐观测精度P_L范围在(0.130—0.278)×10^-8(m·s^-2)·(Hz·s)^-1/3,与gPhone-1相对重力仪相比,PET重力仪观测数据存在一定漂移,其P_L数值略大,表明观测环境和仪器性能共同制约着重力观测精度。     

应用MODIS数据监测千岛湖流域植被覆盖动态(2001-2013年)

流域植被覆盖状况对于水源地生态环境保护具有重要的指示作用.当前的水质目标管理不仅要着眼于湖库水质参数控制,更应该从整个流域的角度维系生态平衡.在此背景下,依托长时间序列MODIS遥感数据对千岛湖流域2001-2013年植被覆盖状况进行监测,采用最小二乘法趋势分析和Mann-Kendall显著性检验方法分析了千岛湖流域植被的空间分布特征、时间变化特征与长期变化趋势.研究表明该方法能够有效地监测流域植被覆盖的时空动态变化:1)从空间分布上来看,千岛湖流域植被覆盖状况整体较好,但同时也发现受人为干扰较大的地域如河、湖附近的城镇建设用地、农业用地以及园地,其NDVI值明显低于自然林地;2)从时间变化特征上看,2001-2013年千岛湖流域植被年际NDVI在0.69~0.73之间波动,且近年来有增长趋势,年内季节性NDVI动态分析表明高时间分辨率的MODIS数据能够用来区分常绿植被与落叶植被的物候特征,以分析不同植被类型对流域氮、磷流失的风险差异;3)从变化趋势上看,2001-2013年植被覆盖状况改善的区域远大于退化的区域,其中改善区域约占流域面积的55.90%,呈现出一定退化状态的区域约占29.60%(严重退化区域仅占3.97%),而相对稳定不变区域约占14.51%.经与气温与降水等气候因子进行相关性分析表明,植被NDVI与气温呈显著正相关,而降水则不敏感,说明气温是研究区植被生长的主导气候因子.同时发现,人类活动对局部植被变化影响较大.研究结果可为流域水资源与生态环境保护提供空间数据支撑.     

Preliminary analysis on the relationships between Tibetan Plateau NDVI change and its surface heat source and precipitation of China

Using the automatic weather station data obtained from the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the normalized dif- ference vegetation index and the monthly precipitation data of China and by the methods of correlation and composite analysis, preliminary analytical results are achieved concerning the relationships be- tween TP NDVI change and its surface heat source and precipitation of China. The results of our re- search may lead to the following conclusions: (1) A positive correlation relationship exists between TP NDVI change and its surface heat source, including the sensible heat and the latent heat. As to the correlation of the former, it is more remarkable in western TP than in eastern TP, and as to the correla- tion of the latter, however it turns out contrary. (2) With the improvement of TP vegetation, its surface heat source of every season is also mainly reinforced, especially in summer. As to the contribution of the sensible heat and the latent heat to the increment of the TP surface heat source intensity, the for- mer is comparatively more significant than the latter in winter and spring, while in summer and autumn, the two have almost the same importance. (3) The correlation coefficient between summer NDVI over TP and the corresponding period precipitation of China displays a belt distribution of " ? " from south to north China. (4) Anomalous surface heating field over TP derived from vegetation change is probably an important factor to affect summer precipitation of China.     

The diurnal and seasonal characteristics of urban heat island variation in Beijing city and surrounding areas and impact factors based on remote sensing satellite data

Based on the land surface temperature (LST), the land cover classification map,vegetation coverage, and surface evapotranspiration derived from EOS-MODIS satellite data, and by the use of GIS spatial analytic technique and multivariate statistical analysis method, the urban heat island (UHI) spatial distribution of the diurnal and seasonal variabilities and its driving forces are studied in Beijing city and surrounding areas in 2001. The relationships among UHI distribution and landcover categories, topographic factor, vegetation greenness, and surface evapotranspiration are analyzed. The results indicate that: (i) The significant UHI occur in Beijing city areas in the four seasons due to high heat capacity and multi-reflection of compression building, as well as with special topographic features of its three sides surrounded by mountains,especially in the summer. The UHI spatial distribution is corresponding with the urban geometry structure profile. The LST difference is approximately 4-6℃ between Beijing city and suburb areas, comparatively is 8- 10℃ between Beijing city area and outer suburb area in northwestern regions. (ii) The UHI distribution and intensity in daytime are different from nighttime in Beijing city area, the nighttime UHI is obvious. However, in the daytime, the significant UHI mainly appears in the summer, the autumn takes second place, and the UHI in the winter and the spring seem not obvious. The surface evapotranspiration in suburb areas is larger than that in urban areas in the summer, and high latent heat exchange is evident, which leads to LST difference between city area and suburb area. (iii) The reflection of surface landcover categories is sensitive to the UHI, the correlation between vegetation greenness and UHI shows obviously negative.The scatterplot shows that there is the negative correlation between NDVI and LST (R2 = 0.6481).The results demonstrate that the vegetation greenness is an important factor for reducing the UHI,and large-scale construction of greenbelts can considerably reduce the UHI effect.     

Notable shifting in the responses of vegetation activity to climate change in China

The weakening relationship between inter-annual temperature variability and vegetation activity in the Northern Hemisphere over the last three decades has been reported by a recent study. However, how and to what extent vegetation activity responds to climate change in China is still unclear. We applied the Pearson correlation and partial correlation methods with a moving 15-y window to the GIMMS NDVI dataset from NOAA/AVHRR and observed climate data to examine the variation in the relationships between vegetation activity and climate variables. Results showed that there was an expanding negative response of vegetation growth to climate warming and a positive role of precipitation. The change patterns between NDVI and climate variables over vegetation types during the past three decades pointed an expending negative correlation between NDVI and temperature and a positive role of precipitation over most of the vegetation types (meadow, grassland, shrub, desert, cropland, and forest). Specifically, correlation between NDVI and temperature (P_NDVI-T) have shifted from positive to negative in most of the station of temperature-limited areas with evergreen broadleaf forests, whereas precipitation-limited temperate grassland and desert were characterized by a positive P_NDVI-P. This study contributes to ongoing investigations of the effects of climate change on vegetation activity. It is also of great importance for designing forest management strategies to cope with climate change.     

European precipitation connections with large-scale mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) fields

Abstract

To advance understanding of hydroclimatological processes, this paper links spatiotemporal variability in gridded European precipitation and large-scale mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) time series (1957–2002) using monthly concurrent correlation. Strong negative (positive) correlation near Iceland and (the Azores) is apparent for precipitation in northwest Europe, confirming a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) association. An opposing pattern is found for southwest Europe, and the Mediterranean in winter. In the lee of mountains, MSLP correlation is lower reflecting reduced influence of westerlies on precipitation generation. Importantly, European precipitation is shown to be controlled by physically interpretable climate patterns that change in extent and position from month to month. In spring, MSLP–precipitation correlation patterns move and shrink, reaching a minimum in summer, before expanding in the autumn, and forming an NAO-like dipole in winter. These space–time shifts in correlation regions explain why fixed-point NAO indices have limited ability to resolve precipitation for some European locations and seasons.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Montanari

Citation Lavers, D., Prudhomme, C., and Hannah, D.M., 2013. European precipitation connections with large-scale mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) fields. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 310–327.     

SRES A2情景下中国气候未来变化的多模式集合预测结果

采用政府间气候变化委员会资料中心的模式预测结果,本文分析了SRES A2温室气体和气溶胶排放情景下中国大陆21世纪前30年的10年际气候变化趋势. 研究揭示：大陆冬季和夏季表面温度、表面最高温度和最低温度分别升高0.3～2.3℃、0.1～2.0℃、0.5～2.7℃,增幅大体上呈现东西向带状分布,由南至北升温逐渐加强,且增幅随时间加大. 此外,上述三气候要素冬季升温幅度要大于同期夏季、表面最低温度升幅要强于同期表面最高温度,冬季和夏季表面温度的季节内变化范围减小. 冬季东亚地区海平面气压异常幅度在-1.0hPa至0.4hPa之间变化,呈东西向带状分布,表现为南正北负、随时间推进异常幅度有所加大,正负交界面向南扩展;同时,东北、华北和西部海平面气压负异常较大. 夏季海平面气压异常空间分布与冬季相似. 2001～2030年,青藏高原大部、大陆东南部和河套大部分地区降水量增加0.1～0.8mm/d.     

北大西洋涛动和南半球环状模不同位相配置对我国南方夏季降水的协同影响

利用我国气象台站观测资料和再分析格点数据,诊断研究了前期春季(4-5月份)北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation,NAO)和南半球环状模(Southern Annular Mode,SAM)在不同位相配置下对我国南方夏季降水异常变化的协同影响作用.分析结果表明,在剔除ENSO最强信号影响后,我国南方夏季降水异常分布显著地依赖于前期春季两个较为独立的年际变率主模态(NAO和SAM)位相的不同配置,即降水异常型主要表现为两个因子单独作用的叠加效果,当前春SAM正位相偏强而NAO负位相偏强时,二者的影响呈现协同正效应,我国南方夏季(6-7月份)降水表现为全区正异常,特别在长江中下游及其以南附近地区最为显著;反之,当前春SAM呈偏强的负位相而NAO偏强的正位相配置时,二者的影响呈现协同负效应,对应我国夏季长江中下游地区降水表现为显著负异常.对其可能的影响机理研究表明,在SAM与NAO位相相反情况下,二者均会通过海气相互作用过程影响到热带大西洋北部海温的异常变化,进而形成协同作用,增强北大西洋海温三极子模态异常信号,从而通过欧亚大陆的遥相关波列对东亚夏季风和我国南方降水产生显著影响.相比之下,当SAM与NAO同位相时,可能表现为抵消效应,不利于北大西洋海温三极子发展,从而削弱对我国南方夏季降水的影响,此方面还有待进一步研究.     

Assessing vegetation dynamics and their relationships with climatic variability in northern China

In this study, the vegetation dynamics and their correlations with climate variability in northern China were evaluated based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and meteorological datasets from 1982 to 2006. The NDVI showed that vegetation cover had a tiny increasing trend for whole study area in the past 25 years. However, the interannual changes of NDVI were different in each season. The part of spring and autumn NDVI values increased significantly, while the summer NDVI increased no significantly. And the interannual variations of the NDVI showed obvious spatial differentiations. The annual max NDVI increased were mainly distributed in most areas of grassland and farmland, whereas the annual max NDVI decreased were mainly distributed in forest areas. The annual NDVI and temperature had more important relationships. Thus, as compared to precipitation, the correlation between NDVI with temperature was stronger than the precipitation in northern China. NDVI and climatic variables were different in each season. The NDVI trends exhibited a close correspondence to climatological variations in region and season. In Addition, human activities also had profound effect to the NDVI trends in some regions. All these findings will make humans know more about the knowledge of the natural forces that influence vegetation change and supply a scientific basic resource to for the environmental management in northern China.     

基于MODIS数据的干旱遥感监测研究

干旱是影响社会发展和农业生产的重要因素之一。本文基于EOS/MODIS卫星遥感资料,选取江西省2001-2006年的NDVI时间序列数据,分析了NDVI对干旱的响应规律。计算了NDVI与气温、降水之间的关系。并提取植被状态指数(VCI),分析VCI与气温距平、降水距平的空间分布规律。结果表明:2003年江西夏季旱灾以高温少雨天气为主。这一时期的NDVI数值明显低于其他年份同一时期的NDVI值。气温温度越高,NDVI值越大;日照时数时间越长,NDVI值越大;降水量越高,NDVI值越大;降水距平百分率越高,VCI值越高;平均温度距平越小,VCI值越高。说明气候因素对NDVI指数和VCI指数有很大影响。研究表明,基于MODIS的植被指数可以反映旱灾的时空分布规律。     

Regional sea-surface temperatures explain spatial and temporal variation of summer precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River

ABSTRACT

The summer precipitation (June–September) in the source region of the Yellow River accounts for about 70% of the annual total, playing an important role in water availability. This study divided the source region of the Yellow River into homogeneous zones based on precipitation variability using cluster analysis. Summer precipitation trends and teleconnections with global sea-surface temperatures (SST) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) from 1961 to 2010 were investigated by Mann-Kendall test and Pearson product-moment correlation analysis. The results show that the northwest part (Zone 1) had a non-significantly increasing trend, and the middle and southeast parts (zones 2 and 3) that receive the most precipitation displayed a statistically significant decreasing trend for summer precipitation. The summer precipitation in the whole region showed statistically significant negative correlations with the central Pacific SST for 0–4 month lag and with the Southern Indian and Atlantic oceans SST for 5–8 month lag. Analyses of sub-regions reveal intricate and complex correlations with different SST areas that further explain the summer precipitation variability. The SOI had significant positive correlations, mainly for 0–2 months lag, with summer precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River. It is seen that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have an influence on summer precipitation, and the predominant negative correlations indicate that higher SST in equatorial Pacific areas corresponding to El Niño coincides with less summer precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Gerten