MS8.0汶川地震断层的应力状态以及对余震危险性的影响

利用中国地震局在汶川地震前后对四川盆地以及龙门山断裂进行的水压致裂绝对应力测量数据,近断层强震记录,以及由美国USGS公布的包括地震矩、地震波能量等在内的远场震源参数解,从简单断层模型出发,应用地震能量分配原理和库仑摩擦准则,初步估算和判断了2008年MS8.0汶川地震断层破裂过程和震源参数,以及滑移弱化模型下应力变化(静态应力降的大小)对断层内部余震强度的影响.结果表明,对主震而言,地震辐射效率和地震效率上限值分别约为36%和14%,平均滑移弱化距离Dc约为0.5 m,破裂能约为1.29×1016J, 松弛功约为1.13×1016 J.主断层内所贮存的粘弹性松弛功的大小与主震的地震波辐射能相当,假设主震在应变能变化中的松弛功全部用于一个余震的触发,且主断层上的余震发生与主震一样遵从相同的断层破裂机制:即能量分配准则,那么汶川地震余震释放的全部能量相当于一个MS6.9级的地震.由此可推断汶川地震主断层上不会发生MS6.9级以上的余震,而主震后更多较小震级的余震可能持续几十年甚至上百年.     

Evolution of cumulative Coulomb failure stress in northeastern Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau and its effect on large earthquake occurrence

We simulate accumulative Coulomb failure stress change in a layered Maxwell viscoelastic media in the north-eastern Qinghai-Xizang(Tibetan)Plateau since 1920.Lithospheric stress/strain evolution is assumed to be drivenby dislocations of large earthquakes(M≥7.0)and secular tectonic loading.The earthquake rupture parameters suchas the fault rupture length,width,and slip are either adopted from field investigations or estimated from their sta-tistic relationships with the earthquake magnitudes and seismic moments.Our study shows that among 20 largeearthquakes(M≥7.0)investigated,17 occurred in areas where the Coulomb failure stress change is positive,with atriggering rate of 85%.This study provides essential data for the intermediate to long-term likelihood estimation oflarge earthquakes in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.     

2016年以来门源2次6级地震的应力触发及其对祁连—海原断裂带地震危险性的指示

祁连—海原断裂带是青藏高原东北缘的边界断裂带,调节着青藏高原北东向的推挤和阿拉善地块的东向运动.前人动力学模拟指出,该断层有效摩擦系数可低至0.05,远小于通常在库仑应力计算及相关地震危险性分析中采用的0.4.本文基于库仑应力理论讨论了2016年门源6.4级对2022年门源6.9级地震的应力触发,并讨论了其对青藏高原东北缘地震危险性的指示意义.结果显示：随着有效摩擦系数降低,断层面最大库仑应力加载可达0.013 MPa,表明2016年门源6.4级地震可以增加2022年门源6.9级地震震源区的地震危险性.库仑应力随着有效摩擦系数的降低而增加,暗示祁连—海原断裂带的低有效摩擦系数可以促进2016年门源6.4级地震对2022年门源6.9级地震的应力触发.本文同时给出了祁连—海原断裂带两个库仑应力增强的区域,即西段的托莱山断裂和中段的天祝空段,这两个区域同时也是历史大震破裂空段和断层高闭锁段,预示着这两个断层段未来地震危险性高,值得进一步关注.

     

1976年唐山MS7.8地震余震序列持续时间及对地震危险性分析的意义

1976年7月28日唐山MS7.8大地震对唐山及其周边地区造成了重大的人员伤亡和财产损失. 主震之后约15小时滦县又发生了MS7.1地震; 同年11月15日宁河也发生了MS6.9地震. 唐山MS7.8主震后的余震一直持续至今,使该区域至今保持了与主震前相比具有较高的地震活动性．如何估计余震的持续时间,并进一步将余震从主震目录中去除,一直是地震学中所关注的问题．该文通过对数线性回归和理论计算,从不同角度求取并讨论了1976年唐山MS7.8大地震的余震持续时间．结果表明,由对数线性回归计算得到的余震持续时间约为80 a．而基于Dieterich的余震触发理论所得到的余震持续时间则与区域剪应力变化率有关．区域剪应力变化率可有几种不同方法求得: ① 根据剪应力变化率和静态应力降Delta;tau;e及地震回复周期tr之间的关系求取应力变化率,该方法所得到的余震持续时间约为70——100 a;② Ziv和Rubin对Dieterich的方法进行了修正,给出了通过远场加载速率和断层宽度求取应力变化率, 该方法得到的余震持续时间约为80 a;③ 由背景场地震活动性求取远场剪应力速率, 可以得到该地区二维分布式的余震持续时间,此方法得到的研究区域内余震持续时间为130——160 a．综上,唐山地区余震持续时间约为70——140 a,据此, 该地区现今所发生的地震仍为MS7.8唐山地震所触发的余震．      

Gravity evolution and earthquake activities of the northeastern edge of Qinghai-Xizang block

The relationship between temporal-spatial evolution of gravity and earthquake activity during 1992–2001 has been analyzed systematically by integrally adjusting the gravity observation data of the northeastern edge of Qinghai-Xizang (Qingzang) block. The result shows that the gravity observation data of the northeastern edge of Qingzang block obtained by using the uniform starting datum can completely reflect the precursory gravity information appearing during the seismogenic process. In the genesis stage of an earthquake, regional gravity anomaly appears in a large area, resulting in related local gravity anomaly. The dynamic image of gravity field can clearly reflect the orderly evolution and earthquake activity. Foundation item: Key Project of China Earthquake Administration during the tenth Five-year Plan (100501-05-05).     

Gravity evolution and earthquake activities of the northeastern edge of Qinghai-Xizang block

Introduction Earthquake is closely tied up with gravity on the basis of crustal deformation and crustaldensity change. With the accumulation of stress around the epicenter, the spatial position ofground point and density crustal medium will change with strain during the seismogenic processof an earthquake. All these factors will bring about the change of gravity field. Since the Xingtaiearthquake in China in 1966, mobile gravity measurements in a large scale and the studies ongravity var…     

Inversion for negative dislocation on elastic block boundaries in the northeastern margin of Qinghai-Xizang block and prediction for strong earthquake location

Introduction According to the negative dislocation model (Matsu′ura et al, 1986), the relative motion be-tween active blocks under contemporary crustal movement is likely to be partially blocked on the boundaries. Suppose the lower ductile zone of boundary could slip freely, while due to the fric-tional resistance, etc., the upper brittle zone would restrict such kind of relative motion, so as to give rise to stress and strain accumulation. Namely, the surface displacement in the block bound-…     

Estimate of earthquake hazard in the Vrancea (Romania) region

A maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters maximum magnitudeM _max, annual activity rate , and theb value of the Gutenberg-Richter equation in the Vrancea (Romania) region. The applied procedure permits the use of mixed catalogs with incomplete historical as well as complete instrumental parts, the consideration of variable detection thresholds, and the incorporation of earthquake magnitude uncertainty.Our imput data, comprises 105 historical earthquakes which occurred between 984 and 1934, and a complete data file containing 1067 earthquakes which occurred during the period 1935–30 August, 1986. The complete part was divided into four subcatalogs according to different thresholds of completeness. Only subcrustal events were considered, and dependent events were removed.The obtained value (=0.65) is at the lower range of the previously reported results, but it appears concurrent with conceptual and observational facts. The same concerns inferred value of _max = 7.8 and activity rate _4.0 = 5.34.     

1997年以来巴颜喀拉块体周缘强震之间的黏弹性触发研究

本文利用考虑黏弹性地壳结构和精确震源参数的震后形变模型,计算了玛尼、昆仑山口西、汶川地震所形成的同震和震后形变场的变化过程与特征,结果显示玛尼地震的震后形变场有利于昆仑山口西地震的能量积累,玛尼地震与昆仑山口西地震的震后形变场对汶川地震的作用不明显,而这三次地震总的震后形变场在玉树断裂带附近形成了一个明显带有左旋性质的形变,有助于玉树地震的发生.将计算出的应力值投影到断层的滑动方向上,得到了这些地震震前的库仑应力变化过程,结果显示玛尼地震对昆仑山口西地震的库仑应力值呈现一个从负转正的过程;玛尼地震和昆仑山口西地震对汶川地震的库仑应力改变量较小;这三次强震对玉树地震的库仑应力作用为0.012 MPa左右,大于地震触发的阈值0.01 MPa.最后利用断层应力积累与滑动速率的关系,计算出断层应力的年积累量,得到这些地震之间的影响值相对于年积累量的大小,结果表明仅昆仑山口西地震对玉树地震的影响在1年左右,其他地震之间的影响都很微小.由此我们认为即便是考虑地壳的黏弹性应力作用,对于较远的断层来说影响也较弱,自身的能量积累是短时间内地块边界带上较远距离强震连发的决定性因素.     

1997年以来巴颜喀拉块体周缘强震之间的黏弹性触发研究

2021年5月22日在青海玛多发生M_W7.4地震,为了探究玛多地震的不同滑动模型对周围地区及断层应力的加卸载作用,本文首先以GNSS数据为约束,结合中国地震局地质研究所公布的玛多地震同震滑动模型（模型A）断层面几何结构反演获得同震滑动模型（模型C）,再分别利用模型A、模型B（USGS）、模型C计算玛多地震对周围地区及断层的应力加卸载作用。结果显示：① 模型C矩震级为M_W7.46,最大滑动量为3.39 m,主体破裂位于0—10 km深度范围,整体破裂东侧大于西侧,滑动分布相对于模型A也更加均匀平滑,反演效果较好;② 不同模型计算的应力分布基本相同,沿破裂段同震库仑应力加载区域面积随着深度的增加而增加,且在发震断裂带西端、东端分别各有两处明显的库仑应力加载区域,在昆仑山口—江错断裂东、西段、甘孜—玉树断裂、东昆仑断裂东段、玛多—甘德断裂、清水河断裂中、西段、达日断裂西段均产生了明显的应力加载,但模型B计算结果有所差异,昆仑山口—江错断裂中段处于应力卸载状态,震后10年断层应力状态变化不大,但清水河断裂东段在震后应力调整中卸载作用较为明显,地震危险性降低;③ 为了探究强震对玛多地震的影响,本文分别计算了2008年汶川地震以后巴颜喀拉地块M≥7.0强震同震及震后效应对玛多地震的应力加卸载,结果表明所有强震均对玛多地震有应力加载作用,但累积库仑应力并未超过触发阈值。

     

2010年MS7.1级玉树地震同震库仑应力变化以及对2011年MS5.2级囊谦地震的影响

2010年4月14日青海省玉树藏族自治州发生M_S7.1级地震.和传统的板内地震相比,玉树M_S7.1级地震的余震具有数量少、震级大的特点.研究玉树地震主震与余震之间的关系,对于我们了解余震的发震机理具有十分重要的参考价值.本文利用弹性位错理论和分层岩石圈模型,计算玉树地震引起的同震及震后黏弹松弛应力场变化,讨论M_S7.1级玉树地震对余震分布的影响以及与2011年囊谦M_S5.2级地震之间的触发关系.结果显示,玉树地震导致了四处明显的库仑应力增强的扇区,2010年4月13日至6月17日的870次M_L>1.0级余震主要分布于主震破裂面附近区域以及破裂面东北端的应力增强扇区.分析玉树地震对余震分布的影响时,有效摩擦系数以及计算深度的选取对计算结果的影响较小,是否考虑区域构造应力场的影响较大.考虑区域构造应力场时,占总数86.7%的余震位于库仑应力增强区,地震应力触发理论较好地解释了余震的分布.选取囊谦地震震源机制解的两个节面作为库仑应力计算中的接收断层参数,并且考虑不同黏滞系数下的玉树地震同震及震后黏弹松弛效应,模型计算结果均表明囊谦地震位于玉树地震所导致应力影区,仅依靠地震的静态、震后黏弹松弛应力触发理论,无法解释囊谦地震的发生,说明该次地震可能是一次独立的事件.     

Source process of the 1990 Gonghe,China, earthquake and tectonic stress field in the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) plateau

TheM _s =6.9 Gonghe, China, earthquake of April 26, 1990 is the largest earthquake to have been documented historically as well as recorded instrumentally in the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) plateau. The source process of this earthquake and the tectonic stress field in the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang plateau are investigated using geodetic and seismic data. The leveling data are used to invert the focal mechanism, the shape of the slipped region and the slip distribution on the fault plane. It is obtained through inversion of the leveling data that this earthquake was caused by a mainly reverse dip-slipping buried fault with strike 102°, dip 46° to SSW, rake 86° and a seismic moment of 9,4×10¹⁸ Nm. The stress drop, strain and energy released for this earthquake are estimated to be 4.9 MPa, 7.4×10^–5 and 7.0×10¹⁴ J, respectively. The slip distributes in a region slightly deep from NWW to SEE, with two nuclei, i.e., knots with highly concentrated slip, located in a shallower depth in the NWW and a deeper depth in the SEE, respectively.Broadband body waves data recorded by the China Digital Seismograph Network (CDSN) for the Gonghe earthquake are used to retrieve the source process of the earthquakes. It is found through moment-tensor inversion that theM _s =6.9 main shock is a complex rupture process dominated by shear faulting with scalar seismic moment of the best double-couple of 9.4×10¹⁸ Nm, which is identical to the seismic moment determined from leveling data. The moment rate tensor functions reveal that this earthquake consists of three consecutive events. The first event, with a scalar seismic moment of 4.7×10¹⁸ Nm, occurred between 0–12 s, and has a focal mechanism similar to that inverted from leveling data. The second event, with a smaller seismic moment of 2.1×10¹⁸ Nm, occurred between 12–31 s, and has a variable focal mechanism. The third event, with a sealar seismic moment of 2.5×10¹⁸ Nm, occurred between 31–41 s, and has a focal mechanism similar to that inverted from leveling data. The strike of the 1990 Gonghe earthquake, and the significantly reverse dip-slip with minor left-lateral strike-slip motion suggest that the pressure axis of the tectonic stress field in the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang plateau is close to horizontal and oriented NNE to SSW, consistent with the relative collision motion between the Indian and Eurasian plates. The predominant thrust mechanism and the complexity in the tempo-spatial rupture process of the Gonghe earthquake, as revealed by the geodetic and seismic data, is generally consistent with the overall distribution of isoseismals, aftershock seismicity and the geometry of intersecting faults structure in the Gonghe basin of the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang plateau.Contribution No. 96 B0006 Institute of Geophysics, State Seismological Bureau, Beijing, China.     

A physics-based earthquake simulator and its application to seismic hazard assessment in Calabria (Southern Italy) region

The use of a newly developed earthquake simulator has allowed the production of catalogs lasting 100 kyr and containing more than 100,000 events of magnitudes ≥4.5. The model of the fault system upon which we applied the simulator code was obtained from the DISS 3.2.0 database, selecting all the faults that are recognized on the Calabria region, for a total of 22 fault segments. The application of our simulation algorithm provides typical features in time, space and magnitude behavior of the seismicity, which can be compared with those of the real observations. The results of the physics-based simulator algorithm were compared with those obtained by an alternative method using a slip-rate balanced technique. Finally, as an example of a possible use of synthetic catalogs, an attenuation law has been applied to all the events reported in the synthetic catalog for the production of maps showing the exceedance probability of given values of PGA on the territory under investigation.     

惠州断层及其邻区地震危险性评价

惠州断层长约20 km,宽约5 km,产状135°—150°/NE∠65°—75°,在断层露头处可见复合断层角砾岩,这反映出该断层曾发生过多次运动.为研究该断层最新活动时代及地震危险性,得到的现今惠州断层垂直形变图显示,该区明显受区域活动构造所控制,垂直形变幅度相对较小,无明显的高速度梯度带;地壳水平运动状态测点的运动...     

地震视应力及其物理意义的探讨

对NEIC宽频带地震辐射能量目录和哈佛CMT目录,给出全球震级大于5．5级的有能量记录的地震资料进行统计研究。首先,拟合得到全球浅源地震和不同类型地震平均视应力的大小和范围,验证了前人得到的“走滑型视应力大于倾滑型视应力”的结论;其次,对折合能量和地震矩关系分析得到：正断层型地震的折合能量随着地震矩增大而减小,而对于走滑型和逆冲型地震未得到前人给出的明确结论;对主震视应力和余震视应力的分析比较表明,它们在量值上没有规律性,必须要结合实际的地震事件,才能反映出它们之间大小关系的真正物理内涵,因为不同的主震可能对震源区的应力场有不同的影响——造成震源区应力场的应力集中（障碍体模式）,大部分余震的视应力高于主震视应力;或使应力场更加均匀（凹凸体模式）,大部分余震视应力低于主震视应力。这些结论对地震震源理论研究具有一定意义。     

Current state of integrated earthquake simulation for earthquake hazard and disaster

This paper presents the current state of integrated simulation for earthquake hazard and disaster. This simulation takes advantage of the macro–micro analysis method; this method estimates an earthquake’s strong motion with high spatial and temporal resolution, using the bounding medium theory to obtain optimistic and pessimistic estimates of expected strong motion distribution and the singular perturbation expansion that results in an efficient multi-scale analysis. Integrated earthquake simulation calculates seismic responses for all structures in a target area, inputting simulated strong ground motion to a structure analysis method that is plugged into the system by means of a wrapper; a suitable method, linear or nonlinear, is chosen depending on the type of the structure. The results of all simulations are visualized so that residences and government officials can share a common recognition of earthquake hazard and disaster. Two examples of this integrated earthquake simulations are presented; one is made by plugging nonlinear structure analysis methods into the system, and the other is made for an actual city, the computer model of which is constructed with the help of available geographical information systems.     

区域优势构造面和余震节面库仑应力变化相关性与地震预测意义.

根据2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震震源机制,计算了主震破裂在区域优势直立走滑构造面上引起的库仑应力变化,发现3级以上余震大部分分布在库仑应力变化为正的区段,与应力的正相关性为56%——71%;5级余震与应力的正相关性达到60%——80%．5级余震节面上库仑应力变化的正相关性为60%——80%,其效果与优势构造面具有等价性．表明应用库仑应力函数方法分析区域优势构造面应力变化,可能是判断未来地震活动发生地点的一条有效途径．其物理机制可能源于地壳应变主体单元中区域应变能与单元中包含的不同尺度断层面上应力分布的正相关性．亦即主破裂造成沿区域优势构造产生应力的不均匀分布,应力的非均匀性引起区域应变能的非均匀分布,在应变能升高的区段,某些次生断裂面应力随之升高,从而引发余震活动．     

2010年玉树地震地表破裂带典型破裂样式及其构造意义

野外调查表明,青海玉树MS7.1地震发生在青藏高原中部甘孜—玉树断裂的玉树段上,在玉树县结古镇至隆宝镇之间产生了一系列包括剪切破裂、张剪切破裂、压剪切破裂、张性破裂及其不连续岩桥区出现的鼓包或陷落坑(拉分盆地)、高寒地区特有的冰裂缝等地表破裂单元,它们斜列组合成整体走向约300°、长约65 km、最大同震左旋位移2.4 m的地表破裂带,具有变形局部化的基本特征.玉树地震地表破裂带整体上可划分为长约15 km的结隆次级地表破裂带和长约31 km的结古次级地表破裂带,两者呈左阶羽列,其间无地表破裂段长约17 km,对应于MW6.4和MW6.9两个次级地震事件.地表破裂类型、基本组合特征等显示出甘孜—玉树断裂两盘块体的运动方式以纯剪切的左旋走滑为主,从一个方面反映了青藏高原物质存在着向东的逃逸和挤出现象.     

2014年8月3日云南鲁甸地震强地面运动初步模拟及烈度预测

2014年8月3日云南省昭通市鲁甸县发生了Ms6.5级地震.在已知的三维介质模型、地形数据基础上,利用震源运动学初步反演模型（张勇等,2014）,作者采用曲线坐标网格三维曲线有限差分方法模拟了鲁甸地震波场传播过程,并计算了模拟区域地震烈度分布.结果表明：地震最大烈度为Ⅶ度,破坏主要集中在鲁甸县以及巧家县、会泽县靠近鲁甸县的边界.另外,模拟结果还显示地震动在山峰、山脊处具有较大的幅度.计算表明断层东北侧的低速沉积盆地的波动放大效应加强了该地区的地震灾害.     

2014年2月12日新疆于田地震强地面运动初步模拟及烈度预测

2014年2月12日新疆自治区于田县发生了MS7.3级地震.在已知的三维介质模型、地形数据基础上,利用震源运动学初步反演模型（张勇等,2014）,作者采用曲线坐标网格三维曲线有限差分方法模拟了于田地震波场传播过程,并计算了模拟区域地震烈度分布.结果表明：地震最大烈度为7度,距离震中最近的于田县城烈度约为5度,断层西北侧地面震动略强于断层东南侧.另外模拟结果还显示地震动在山脊处具有较大的幅度.该地震本身主要能量释放区域在中地壳,主要滑动未及地表,因此对地表造成的破坏有限,这与目前尚无人员伤亡报告的情况相符合.