Return period estimates of extreme sea level along the east coast of India from numerical simulations

Estimates of return periods of extreme sea level events along the coast are useful for impact assessment. In this study, a vertically integrated 2D model was developed for the simulation of storm surges in the Bay of Bengal. The bathymetry for the model was derived from an improved ETOPO-5 data set, which was prepared in our earlier work. The meteorological forcing for the model was obtained from the cyclone model of Holland using the data available for 136 low-pressure systems that occurred during 1974–2000 in the Bay of Bengal. The simulated total sea level and the surge component were obtained for each event. The simulated peak levels showed good agreement with the observations available at few stations. The annual maxima of sea levels, extracted from the simulations, were fitted with Gumbel distribution using r-largest annual maxima method to estimate the 5- and 50-year return periods of extreme events at 26 stations along the east coast of India. The return periods estimated from simulated sea levels showed good agreement with those obtained from observations. The 5- and 50-year return levels of total sea level along the east coast of India show a considerable increase from south to north, with the 50-year return total sea levels being as high as 6.9 and 8.7 m at stations along the north eastern coast such as Sagar Island and Chandipur, respectively. The high return levels are expected at these stations as the cyclones developed in the Bay of Bengal generally move north or north-west, producing extreme events in the northern part, and moreover, these stations are characterized by high tidal ranges. However, at some regions in the southern part such as Surya Lanka and Machilipatnam, though 50-year return levels of total sea level are not very high (2.98 and 2.97 m, respectively) because of the relatively lower tidal ranges, high return levels of surges (0.84 and 0.57 m, respectively) are found. In addition to the role of shallow depths (5.0 and 6.1 m, respectively) at the two stations, the high return levels of surges are attributed to the effect of geometrical configuration at Surya Lanka and width (100 km) and orientation of continental shelf at Machilipatnam.     

Climate and solar signals in property damage losses from hurricanes affecting the United States

The authors show that historical property damage losses from US hurricanes contain climate signals. The methodology is based on a statistical model that combines a specification for the number of loss events with a specification for the amount of loss per event. Separate models are developed for annual and extreme losses. A Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used to generate posterior samples from the models. Results indicate the chance of at least one loss event increases when the springtime north–south surface pressure gradient over the North Atlantic is weaker than normal, the Atlantic ocean is warmer than normal, El Ni?o is absent, and sunspots are few. However, given at least one loss event, the magnitude of the loss per annum is related only to ocean temperature. The 50-year return level for a loss event is largest under a scenario featuring a warm Atlantic Ocean, a weak North Atlantic surface pressure gradient, El Ni?o, and few sunspots. The work provides a framework for anticipating hurricane losses on seasonal and multi-year time scales.     

Nonlinear dynamics of the sea level time series in the eastern English Channel

Coastal flooding due to surge events represents natural hazards with huge potential consequences for coastal regions. Sea level time series display variations on a large range of timescales, with a deterministic component associated with tidal variations and a stochastic component primarily associated with meteorological forcing, the non-tidal residual. The deterministic component can be evaluated using a model taking into account astronomical forcing and topographic information. The measured sea level is the sum of a slowly varying mean sea level component, the tidal term and the stochastic term. Here, we consider hourly time series recorded in the ports of Boulogne-sur-Mer, Calais, and Dunkirk, in the eastern English Channel. Measured data and modeled data, both provided by the SHOM (“Service hydrographique et océanographique de la marine,” hydrographic and oceanographic services of the French Navy), are analyzed using Fourier spectral analysis. The statistics of return times of extreme events are also estimated directly from the time series and compared between modeled and measured data. It is found that return times from tidal or measured time series are quite different for large thresholds and that they also have a very different Fourier power spectrum, the measured data having a power-law regime which is not found in the modeled tidal data. It is also shown, using Hilbert–Huang transform, that non-tidal residual time series are intermittent and possess multifractal scaling properties. Finally, water level non-tidal residual relationship is explored, and it is shown that the larger mean values of the surge (negative and positive parts) are obtained for the medium level of the tidal value.     

基于Copula函数的设计潮位过程要素组合风险分析

现行推求设计潮位过程大多采用高潮位与潮差同频率放大的方法,未考虑到二者遭遇可能性的大小。采用G-H Copula函数建立了年最高潮位和相应潮差的二维联合分布模型,通过组合风险分析法研究了设计高潮位和设计潮差的组合风险率。以天津港多年实测资料计算分析为例,结果表明:较大重现期的高潮位和潮差同时发生的概率较小,50年一遇高潮位与50年一遇潮差组合的风险率仅为0.05%,同频率设计偏安全,可依据组合风险率适当降低潮差设计标准。所采用的联合分布模型及其应用,在定量分析基础上为设计潮位过程的推求提供了一种新方法。     

河口海岸桥隧工程设计流速推算

跨海桥隧工程设计需要推算工程位置不同重现期设计流速,由于现场缺乏长期实测流速资料,设计流速推算存在很大困难。研究提出了采用不同重现期典型风暴潮过程推算河口海岸设计流速的数值模拟方法,对河口地区考虑洪水径流与风暴潮流的耦合。在依据澳门验潮站1925—2003年实测潮位资料分析珠江口海域风暴潮过程特征的基础上,结合潮位和潮差年极值频率分析结果构建了不同重现期典型风暴潮潮型。采用平面二维水动力数学模型模拟了不同重现期风暴潮和上游一般洪水组合条件下珠江口水域的流场,得出港珠澳大桥沿线各控制点处设计流速。     

Extreme wind gust hazard in Australia and its sensitivity to climate change

For consideration of structural design of buildings and infrastructure in Australia, this paper presents hazard modelling and mapping of extreme wind gusts under the current climate and likely future climate change. Statistical and probabilistic approaches are applied to analyse the daily extreme wind gust data recorded between 1939 and 2007 at 545 anemometer stations around Australia. The estimated hazards are compared with the regional design wind speeds specified by the structural design standard, AS/NZS 1170.2:2011. Our results indicate that, under the current climate, structures in the areas on the west of and around Brisbane, Queensland and Newcastle, New South Wales, may be under higher gust hazard than they are designed for. Sensitivity study shows that these areas are also sensitive to the projected synoptic wind intensity changes. When subjected to ±20 % intensity change and ±50 % occurrence frequency change of tropical cyclones, the northwest coast of Western Australia, the northern part of Northern Territory, and the northeast coast between Cairns and Townsville, Queensland, will experience around ±10 m/s changes in extreme wind gust speeds of 500-year return period.     

The influence of episodic weather events on tidal residual currents: A case study at Sebastian Inlet,Florida

Field data of tidal current speeds collected January 9–31, 1990, in Sebastian Inlet, which connects the Atlantic Ocean and the Indian River Lagoon on the east coast of central Florida, show that the average Eulerian and Stokes residual currents are both lagoonward. This pattern can be used to explain the long-term trend of accumulations of marine sediments on the flood tidal delta adjacent to the lagoon end of the inlet. Numerical model results indicate that the long-term Stokes residual current is mainly determined by the tidal characteristics of the lagoon and ocean, and subsequently, are less variable. The long-term lagoonward Eulerian current, on the other hand, is interrupted by episodic weather events such as frontal storms. Storms can cause the abrupt superelevation of instantaneous water-levels on the lagoon side of the inlet. The short-lived pulses of freshwater inflow into the lagoon associated with storms could be discharged through the inlet instantaneously. Both the instantaneous superelevation of lagoon water levels and freshwater outflow can cause temporary reversal of Eulerian residual current in the inlet. Therefore, the general residual flow pattern in Sebastian Inlet is not only determined by the tidal characteristics of the Atlantic Ocean and Indian River Lagoon but also by the wind and precipitation associated with episodic storms, and by the long-term mean sea-level difference between the lagoon and the ocean.     

Contribution of offshore islands in the prediction of water levels due to tide�Csurge interaction for the coastal region of Bangladesh

In this study, a doubly nested tide?Csurge interaction model was established for the coastal region of Bangladesh. A fine grid model, capable of incorporating all major offshore islands, was nested into a coarse grid model extending up to 15°N latitude of the Bay of Bengal. To take into account the thickly populated small and big islands between Barisal and Chittagong and the extreme bending of the coastline accurately, a very fine grid model for this region was again nested into the fine grid model. Along the northeast corner of this very fine grid model, the Meghna River discharge was taken into account. The boundaries of the coast and islands were approximated through proper stair step, and the model equations were solved by semi?Cimplicit finite difference technique using staggered grid. Appropriate tidal regime over the model domain was generated by forcing the sea level to be oscillatory with the constituent M2 along the southern open boundary of the coarse grid model omitting wind stress. This previously generated tidal regime was introduced as the initial state of the sea for nonlinear tide?Csurge interaction phenomenon. The model was applied to estimate water levels along the coastal region of Bangladesh due to the interaction of tide and surge associated with the storm April 1991, and the results were found to be in a reasonable agreement with those observed. The model was used to investigate the influence of offshore islands on water levels and water levels were found to be significantly influenced by offshore islands.     

Anthropogenic effects and climate change threats on the flood diversion of Erchung Floodway in Tanshui River,northern Taiwan

Hurricanes pose serious threats to people and infrastructure along the United States Gulf and Atlantic coasts. The risk of the strongest hurricane winds over the North Atlantic basin is analyzed using a statistical model from extreme value theory and a tessellation of the domain. The spatial variation in model parameters is shown, and an estimate of the limiting strength of hurricanes at locations across the basin is provided. Quantitative analysis of the variation is done using a geographically weighted regression with regional sea surface temperature as a covariate. It is found that as sea surface temperatures increase, the expected hurricane wind speed for a given return period also increases.     

The estimation of palaeohydrodynamic processes from subtidal deposits using time series analysis methods

Tidal bundle sequences are the characteristic large-scale cross-bedded sets with mud drapes deposited by strongly asymmetrical bidirectional tidal currents. By means of time series analysis of the bundle thickness of such sequences, the palaeohydrodynamic processes can be reconstructed. This technique involves: (1) Fourier analysis to test the periodicity of the bundle-thickness sequence and to estimate the periods and the phases of the most important periodic components; (2) filtering analysis to resolve the bundle-thickness sequence into different components (i.e. diurnal components, random variations, neap/spring components and longer period variations) and also to estimate the relative importance (amplitude) of each component. From these analyses, useful information can be derived as to the palaeotidal regime (whether semidiurnal or mixed) and also about the possible influence of non-tidal processes, such as storms (their strength, duration, frequency and direction). Results from a subrecent and an ancient example show that tidal currents and storm-induced currents are the most important hydrodynamic processes in the transport and deposition of sediment in these shallow marine environments.     

Spatiotemporal variations of extreme sea levels around the South China Sea: assessing the influence of tropical cyclones,monsoons and major climate modes

With sea levels projected to rise as a result of climate change, it is imperative to understand not only long-term average trends, but also the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme sea level. In this study, we use a comprehensive set of 30 tide gauges spanning 1954–2014 to characterize the spatial and temporal variations of extreme sea level around the low-lying and densely populated margins of the South China Sea. We also explore the long-term evolution of extreme sea level by applying a dynamic linear model for the generalized extreme value distribution (DLM-GEV), which can be used for assessing the changes in extreme sea levels with time. Our results show that the sea-level maxima distributions range from ~?90 to 400 cm and occur seasonally across the South China Sea. In general, the sea-level maxima at northern tide gauges are approximately 25–30% higher than those in the south and are highest in summer as tropical cyclone-induced surges dominate the northern signal. In contrast, the smaller signal in the south is dominated by monsoonal winds in the winter. The trends of extreme high percentiles of sea-level values are broadly consistent with the changes in mean sea level. The DLM-GEV model characterizes the interannual variability of extreme sea level, and hence, the 50-year return levels at most tide gauges. We find small but statistically significant correlations between extreme sea level and both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Our study provides new insight into the dynamic relationships between extreme sea level, mean sea level and the tidal cycle in the South China Sea, which can contribute to preparing for coastal risks at multi-decadal timescales.

     

Wave and tidal current sorting of shelf sediments southwest of England

The relative roles of waves and tidal currents in transporting bottom sediment on the continental shelf off Lands End, southwest England, are evaluated by study of (a) sediment grain size in relation to boundary layer measurements in tidal currents, (b) regional variation in sediment parameters in relation to peak tidal and wave-induced currents, and (c) visual observation of bedforms. (a) The sediments are mainly zoogenic sands. The average hydraulic equivalent median diameter is Mdφ=1.40φ (medium grade sand), and two-thirds of the median grain sizes fall between 0.97φ and 1.83φ. The linear bottom current which will just move this range of sizes is exceeded only slightly by the highest tidal drag velocities ū* measured in the area. Thus, sediment movement by tidal currents alone is restricted to areas of high bed roughness and strong peak tidal flows. In contrast, wave-induced oscillatory currents at 100 m depth (typical of the area) attain sufficient speed to disturb the same particle sizes over 3% of the time. This includes storm periods when much greater velocities occur. (b) The average Mdφ of the sediment decreases southwest and northeast from south of the Lizard. This correlates well with the pattern of maximum tidal current speeds, suggesting that tidal currents control the areal distribution of sediment median grain size. Most sediments are well sorted (mean σ_i=0.48φ). Sorting improves at shallower depths but does not improve in areas of faster tidal currents, suggesting that wave-induced currents exert the major control on sorting. Silt and clay proportions increase west of the Scilly Isles and are influenced by both wave and tidal currents. (c) Photographs and television pictures show that symmetrical bedforms due to wave action are dominant north and west of the western Channel. Asymmetric bedforms are more common in the western Channel itself, where tidal currents and bed roughness are both high. Results are used to construct a sediment transport model for the study area. Since medium grade well sorted sands occur in depths of over 100 m, many ancient, extensive, well sorted sand sheets may have been deposited at depths greater than previously suspected.     

海南岛洋浦湾沉积作用研究

本文对海南岛洋浦湾海域的洋浦湾、新英湾、洋浦深槽及拦门沙浅滩的沉积环境和沉积特征做了描述、讨论，对河流、海岸侵蚀和珊瑚礁生物的３种沉积物来源及数量做了分析计算，得出其总量为９×１０⁴ｍ^３／ａ。根据钻孔柱状样的¹⁴Ｃ及²¹⁰Ｐｂ分析，得出８０００ａＢ．Ｐ．以来沉积速率为０．１～０．２ｃｍ／ａ，近百年来沉积速率为１～２ｃｍ／ａ。     

台风风暴潮影响下潮滩沉积动力模拟初探--以江苏如东海岸为例

以江苏如东潮滩为研究区,采用沉积动力学垂向二维概念模型来模拟正常天气和台风期间潮滩沉积的空间分布特征,探讨台风风暴潮对潮滩正常沉积层序的改造作用.模拟结果表明,在涨落潮时间-流速对称特征明显的如东海岸,潮汐作用使潮滩沉积呈显著的分带性,且剖面形态向“双凸形”演化,两个“凸点”分别位于平均高潮位和平均低潮位附近.在台风期间风暴增水效应下,开边界悬沙浓度差异将导致潮滩冲淤和沉积分布格局的变化,潮上带和潮间带上部均堆积泥质沉积物,潮间带中下部在风暴过程中普遍遭受不同程度的砂质沉积物侵蚀或之后堆积泥质沉积物,在沉积层序中形成风暴冲刷面.因此,潮滩的风暴沉积记录存在于潮间带上部或更高部位.以此模型为基础,可进一步综合考虑极浅水边界层水动力结构、沉积物粒度分布变化、波-流联合作用、台风降水、互花米草等生物活动、潮沟摆动及人工围垦等因素,从而建立风暴事件在沉积层序中的时间序列,更好地解译沉积记录中的古环境信息.     

Integrating Monte Carlo and hydrodynamic models for estimating extreme water levels by storm surge in Colombo,Sri Lanka

The prediction of high extremes in sustained water level is very important for coastal engineering design and planning. The recorded historical water level datasets in Colombo, Sri Lanka, are not long enough for the traditional frequency analysis in predicting extreme water levels, such as 50-, 100- and 200-year extreme water levels. In this study, the integrated ADCIRC + SWAN hydrodynamic model and Monte Carlo model have been applied to predict extreme water level in Colombo station of Sri Lanka. The meteorological driving forces of cyclone storm surge are simulated by Monte Carlo stochastic model. The calibrated ADCIRC model with SWAN wave model is used to simulate the potential surge setups with the driving forces generated by Monte Carlo model. By ranking the maximum high water levels in each storm surge procedure, the estimation on extreme high water levels for the desired return period is proposed in this study. The estimated extreme high water levels with return period of 50, 100 and 200 years are 1.28, 1.40 and 1.50 m correspondingly. The estimated extreme high water levels are recommended for engineering design and planning.     

Mapping Shoreline Variability of Two Barrier Island Segments Along the Florida Coast

Recent projections of global climate change necessitate improved methodologies that quantify shoreline variability. Updated analyses of shoreline movement provide important information that can aid and inform likely intervention policies. This paper uses the Analyzing Moving Boundaries Using R (AMBUR) technique to evaluate shoreline change trends over the time period 1856 to 2015. Special emphasis was placed on recent rates of change, during the 1994 to 2015 period of active storm conditions. Small segments, on the order of tens of kilometers, along two sandy barrier island regions on Florida’s Gulf and Atlantic coasts were chosen for this study. The overall average rate of change over the 159-year period along Little St. George Island was ??0.62?±?0.12 m/year, with approximately 65% of shoreline segments eroding and 35% advancing. During periods of storm clustering (1994–2015), retreat rates along portions of this Gulf coast barrier accelerated to ??5.49?±?1.4 m/year. Along the northern portion of Merritt Island on Florida’s Atlantic coast, the overall mean rate of change was 0.22?±?0.08 m/year, indicative of a shoreline in a state of relative dynamic equilibrium. In direct contrast with the Gulf coast shoreline segment, the majority of transects (65%) evaluated along the oceanfront of Merritt Island over the long term displayed a seaward advance. Results indicate that episodes of clustered storm activity with fairly quick return intervals generally produce dramatic morphological alteration of the coast and can delay natural beach recovery. Additionally, the data show that tidal inlet dynamics, shoreline orientation, along with engineering projects, act over a variety of spatial and temporal scales to influence shoreline evolution. Further, the trends of shoreline movement observed in this study indicate that nearshore bathymetry—the presence of shoals—wields some influence on the behavior of local segments of the shoreline.     

A modeling study of the Satilla River estuary,Georgia. I: Flooding-drying process and water exchange over the salt marsh-estuary-shelf complex

The flooding-drying process over the intertidal zone of the Satilla River estuary of Georgia was examined using a three-dimensional (3-D) primitive equations numerical model with Mellor and Yamada's (1982) level 2.5 turbulent closure scheme. The model was forced by the semi-diurnal M₂, S₂, and N₂ tides and freshwater discharge at the upstream end of the estuary. The intertidal salt marsh was treated using a 3-D wet-dry point treatment technique that was developed for the σ-coordinate transformation estuary model. Good agreement was found between model-data comparison at anchor monitoring sites and also along the estuary that suggested that the model provided a reasonable simulation of the temporal and spatial distribution of the 3-D tidal current and salinity in the Satilla River estuary. Numerical experiments have shown that the flooding-drying process plays a key role in the simulation of tidal currents in the main river channel and in water transport over the estuarine-salt marsh complex. Ignoring this process could lead to a 50% under-estimation of the amplitude of tidal currents. The model results also revealed a complex spatial structure of the residual flow in the main channel of the river, with characteristics of multiple eddy-like cell circulations. These complicated residual currents are formed due to tidal rectification over variable topography with superimposition of inertial effects, asymmetry of tidal currents, and baroclinic pressure gradients. Water exchanges over the estuary-intertidal salt marsh complex are asymmetric across the estuary, and tend to vary periodically on the northern side while quickly washing out of the marsh zone on the southern side. Strong Stokes’ drifting velocity was predicted in the estuary, so that the Lagrangian trajectories of particles were characterized by strong nonlinear processes that differ significantly from those estimated by the Eulerian residual currents.     

The rise and fall of the estuarine intertidal zone

Water level records from two study sites in Indian River Lagoon, along Florida’s Atlantic Coast, are used to characterize the vertical displacement of the estuarine intertidal zone in response to subtidal frequency forcing. A 22-year water level record indicates that the seasonal cycle has a range approximately one-quarter greater than the mean tidal range. The intertidal zone thus rises and falls to such an extent that over time scales in excess of several weeks there is no layer which consistently experiences an alternating exposure and inundation. Six-year sets of high and low tide extremes from the second study site are expressed in the form of cummulative histograms to determine the probabilities with which high tide and low tide levels lying outside of median values will occur in response to the interaction of tidal constituents and low-frequency forcing. High and low water values are then stratified by month, and probability distributions are recomputed for each subset. In this study area, unpredictable, low-frequency water level fluctuations perturb the intertidal zone to such an extent that the probabilities of extreme high and low water levels, in addition to mean high and low water, must be determined to characterize the stuarine intertidal zone adequately. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A01BY034 00002     

Oscillations of sea level rise along the Atlantic coast of North America north of Cape Hatteras

It is shown in the short comment that the sea levels are oscillating about a longer-term trend and that the sea level rise (SLR) computed with time windows of 20, 30 or 60?years also oscillates, with the amplitude of these latter oscillations reducing as the time window increases. The use of only two values of the SLR distribution is misleading to infer conclusions about the accelerating behaviour. In particular, the comparison of the 30-year SLR 1950?C1979 with the 30-year SLR 1980?C2009 for the tide gauges along the Atlantic coast of North America north of Cape Hatteras to infer an accelerating behaviour is particularly wrong because the 30-year time window is a too short interval to appreciate the longer-term sea level trend cleared of the multi-decadal oscillations, and the two values from the SLR distribution are computed, respectively, at the times of a valley and a peak for the 60-year Atlantic Ocean multi-decadal oscillation. By using a 60-year time window or all the data since opening when more than 60?years of recording are available and by analysing the SLR time history, the only conclusion that can be inferred from the analysis of the tide gauges along the North American Atlantic coast is that the sea levels are oscillating without too much of a positive acceleration along their longer-term trend.     

我国河口水文研究的回顾与建议

我国入海河口水文研究的进展主要表现在积累了大量实测资料,广泛开展了物理模型试验和数学模拟,在河口潮汐、潮流、盐淡水混合、余环流、波浪、风暴潮、泥沙等方面取得了很多研究成果。建议今后进一步完善河口水文观测站网,加强长时间序列观测,重视遥感技术等新技术的应用和学科间的相互渗透,在加强开发应用研究的同时,要重视对基础理论的研究。