Probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazard in the Andaman–Nicobar–Sumatra region

Natural Hazards - The Andaman–Nicobar–Sumatra (ANS) region is a very hazardous area on the globe, which has witnessed a megathrust earthquake of Mw 9.2 on 26 December 2004 and several...     

Estimation of the rupture velocity and fault length of the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake using a dense broadband seismic array in Taiwan

The rupture process of the disastrous Sumatra–Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 was analyzed by array processes for teleseismic P-waves recorded by a dense broadband seismic array in Taiwan with epicentral distances of close to 31°. The azimuthal variation from the BATS array center to both ends of the rupture fault is approximately 21°, which is larger than that reported previously for seismic arrays used to image the rupture process of this earthquake, thereby providing a high spatial resolution in studying the source rupture behavior. Two array-processing methods were used to analyze teleseismic P-wave trains. Both analyses were based on data recorded by a broadband network, covering a region of 200 × 400 km, with the aim of evaluating the rupture behavior of the earthquake. Consistent results from both analyses indicate that the earthquake had a rupture duration exceeding 500 s, with major asperities encountered at 80, 260, and 330 s after the initiation of rupturing. We traced the ruptured fault for more than 1200 km from the point of initial rupture. The average rupture velocity was approximately 3.0 km/s and the major northward rupture propagation began at 80 s after the initiation of rupturing.     

Sedimentological and geomorphological effects of the Sumatra–Andaman Tsunami in the area of Khao Lak,southern Thailand

The Sumatra–Andaman Tsunami left distinctive sedimentological and geomorphological signatures in the area of Khao Lak. Fine-grained sediments, predominantly layers of cohesive, carbonate-rich, fine-sandy silt with thicknesses of 1–10 cm, erosionally overlying pre-tsunami sandy soils and sediments, represent the most common tsunami deposits in the study area. Petrographically, they differ significantly from other coastal sediments and affiliated soils. Due to their grain size and corresponding clay mineral content, muddy shelf sediments (sub-wave base) are indicated as a main source. The present results suggest that indications of shelf influence, although varying regionally, might contribute to the identification of fine-grained tsunami sediments and their differentiation from storm sediments. However, the observed differences of tsunami sediments to soils and other coastal sediments, especially with respect to carbonate mineralogy, might disappear in short geological time under conditions of intensive weathering and bioturbation. At Cape Pakarang, hundreds of boulders with up to 24 tons were deposited on the foreshore and upper shoreface. Applying Nott’s (Earth Planet Sci Lett 210:269–276, 2003) formulas, minimum flow velocities of 3.9 m/s are required to transport the largest boulders. The devastating tsunami effect of both, onshore flow and backflow, is documented by damaged human constructions. Geomorphological effects include intensive widening of estuary mouths and the development of erosional channels. Now, estuary mouths are reduced, and erosional channels cut off from the sea due to the formation of a post-tsunami beach ridge.     

Complexity in hydro-seismicity of the Koyna–Warna region,India

Koyna–Warna region in western India is known to be the largest case of the reservoir-triggered seismicity in the world with M6.3 earthquake in 1967. This region continues to be seismically active even after 45 years with occurrences of earthquakes up to M5.0. The porous crustal rocks of Koyna–Warna region respond to changes in the prevailing stress/strain regime. This crustal section is highly fractured and is being fed by rivers and reservoirs. It is also subjected to fluctuating plate boundary forces and significant gravity-induced stresses due to crustal inhomogeneities. These changes induce variations in the water level in bore wells before, during and after an earthquake, and their study can help in understanding the earthquake genesis in the region. The ongoing seismicity thus requires understanding of coupled hydrological and tectonic processes in the region. Water table fluctuations are a reflection of the ongoing hydro-tectonics of the region. The fractal dimension of water levels in the bore wells of the region can be used as measure of the nonlinear characteristics of porous rock, revealing the underlying complexity. In this paper, we present values of correlation dimensions of the water level data in the bore wells using the nonlinear time series methodology. The spatiotemporal changes in the fractal dimensions have also been determined. The results show that hydro-seismically the region behaves as a low-dimensional nonlinear dynamical system.     

Effects of errors and biases on the scaling of earthquake spatial pattern: application to the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman sequence

This study discusses the scaling properties of the spatial distribution of the December 26, 2004, Sumatra aftershocks. We estimate the spatial correlation dimension D ₂ of the epicentral distribution of aftershocks recorded by a local network operated by Geological Survey of India. We estimate the value of D ₂ for five blocks in the source area by using generalized correlation integral approach. We assess its bias due to finite data points, scaling range, effects of location errors, and boundary effects theoretically and apply it to real data sets. The correlation dimension was computed both for real as well as synthetic data sets that include randomly generated point sets obtained using uniform distributions and mimicking the number of events and outlines of the effective areas filled with epicenters. On comparing the results from the real data and random point sets from simulations, we found the lower limit of bias in D ₂ estimates from limited data sets to be 0.26. Thus, the spatial variation in correlation dimensions among different blocks using local data sets cannot be directly compared unless the influence of bias in the real aftershock data set is taken into account. They cannot also be used to infer the geometry of the faults. We also discuss the results in order to add constraints on the use of synthetic data and of different approaches for uncertainty analysis on spatial variation of D ₂. A difference in D ₂ values, rather than their absolute values, among small blocks is of interest to local data sets, which are correlated with their seismic b values. Taking into account the possible errors and biases, the average D ₂ values vary from 1.05 to 1.57 in the Andaman–Nicobar region. The relative change in D ₂ values can be interpreted in terms of clustering and diffuse seismic activity associated with the low and high D ₂ values, respectively. Overall, a relatively high D ₂ and low b value is consistent with high-magnitude, diffuse activity in space in the source region of the 2004 Sumatra earthquake.

     

SPH–DEM coupling method based on GPU and its application to the landslide tsunami. Part II: reproduction of the Vajont landslide tsunami

Acta Geotechnica - Landslide tsunamis are complex fluid–solid coupling processes that often cause enormous catastrophes. In this study, the smooth particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and discrete...     

Opposite vergent synclines on the flanks of a large-scale box fold in the Chamba–Lahaul region, northwest Himalaya, India

This article focuses on two regional-scale synclines of the Chamba Thrust Sheet, northwest Himalaya. These synclines were explained by two different tectonic events. Earlier studies ascribe the NE vergent Tandi syncline and the SW vergent Chamba syncline to the older NE-directed nappe stacking and the younger SW-directed Himalayan deformation events, respectively. The new field data and structural analysis reveal that these synclines define the flanks of a large-scale asymmetric box fold referred to here as the Hadsar–Chobia box fold and to a common phase of deformation. The box fold in the Chamba Thrust Sheet has developed over a ductile–brittle substrate referred to here as the Chamba Thrust. This thrust has translated a portion of the Tethys Himalaya over both the Higher Himalayan Crystallines and the Lesser Himalaya. Structural analysis, particularly the parallelism between the trends of hinge lines of the Hadsar–Chobia box fold and the strike of the regional thrust planes indicate that the folding and translation may have occurred simultaneously during the D₁ deformation episode.     

Research on comprehensive carrying capacity of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region based on state-space method

Based on state-space method and component analysis, this paper builds a comprehensive evaluation system of carrying capacity for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region from four aspects, namely economy, environment, ecology and energy. The results show that the comprehensive carrying capacity in this region gradually rises in recent years and the economic carrying capacity plays an important role in this situation. Ecological and environmental carrying capacity are gradually enhanced but still affected by water shortages. The energy carrying capacity of this region is low, which is the major factor restricting its sustainable development. Based on the empirical results, following policy suggestions should be adopted: Firstly, local government should accelerate technological progress, promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure; Secondly, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resource should be solved gradually; thirdly, government should develop recycling economy, realizing the coordinated development of economy and environment; last but not least, saving energy and improving energy efficiency.     

Source parameters of earthquakes in the reservoir-triggered seismic (RTS) zone of Koyna–Warna, Western India

New empirical relations are derived for source parameters of the Koyna–Warna reservoir-triggered seismic zone in Western India using spectral analysis of 38 local earthquakes in the magnitude range M _L 3.5–5.2. The data come from a seismic network operated by the CSIR-National Geophysical Research Institute, India, during March 2005 to April 2012 in this region. The source parameters viz. seismic moment, source radius, corner frequency and stress drop for the various events lie in the range of 10¹³–10¹⁶ Nm, 0.1–0.4 km, 2.9–9.4 Hz and 3–26 MPa, respectively. Linear relationships are obtained among the seismic moment (M ₀), local magnitude (M _L), moment magnitude (M _w), corner frequency (fc) and stress drop (?σ). The stress drops in the Koyna–Warna region are found to increase with magnitude as well as focal depths of earthquakes. Interestingly, accurate depths derived from moment tensor inversion of earthquake waveforms show a strong correlation with the stress drops, seemingly characteristic of the Koyna–Warna region.     

Mapping the sub-trappean Mesozoic sediments in the western part of Narmada–Tapti region of Deccan Volcanic Province,India

Deccan Traps spread over large parts of south, west and central India, possibly hiding underneath sediments with hydrocarbon potential. Here, we present the results of seismic refraction and wide-angle reflection experiments along three profiles, and analyze them together the results from all other refraction profiles executed earlier in the western part of Narmada–Tapti region of the Deccan Volcanic Province (DVP). We employ travel time modelling to derive the granitic basement configuration, including the overlying Trap and sub-trappean sediment thickness, if any. Travel time skips and amplitude decay in the first arrival refraction data are indicative of the presence of low velocity sediments (Mesozoic), which are the low velocity zones (LVZ) underneath the Traps. Reflection data from the top of LVZ and basement along with the basement refraction data have been used to derive the Mesozoic sediment thickness.In the middle and eastern parts of the study region between Narmada and Tapti, the Mesozoic sediment thickness varies between 0.5 and 2.0 km and reaches more than 2.5 km south of Sendhwa between Narmada and Tapti Rivers. Thick Mesozoic sediments in the eastern parts are also accompanied by thick Traps. The Mesozoic sediments along the present three profiles may not be much prospective in terms of its thickness, except inside the Cambay basin, where the subtrappean sediment thickness is about 1000–1500 m. In the eastern part of the study area, the deepest section (>4 km) has thick (∼2 km) Mesozoic sediments, but with almost equally thick Deccan Trap cover. Results of the present study provide important inputs for future planning for hydrocarbon exploration in this region.     

Sedimentogenesis and resource potential of Middle–Upper Bathonian reservoirs in the Middle Ob’ region

This study provides a comprehensive sedimentologic analysis of the J₂ prospective horizon (Middle–Late Bathonian) in the central West Siberian Basin. Based on the extensive dataset, it was established that structural complexity of this horizon is largely caused by a variety of depositional environments. Sedimentary facies of this horizon pass upward from widespread continental at the base, through deltaic or coastal-continental, to marginal-marine at the top. Change in the paleohypsometry of the study area reflects the distribution of depositional environments, in terms of the proportions of continental, transitional, and marine deposits. The study also shows that facies variability and change in depositional settings can have a significant control on reservoir quality, as well as its vertical and lateral distribution. Using a combination of detailed GDE reconstructions, structure contour mapping on the top and base of the J₂ horizon, analyses of well test data, probability of reservoir presence, distribution of average porosity and permeability within different subenvironments, a composite map showing variations in the reservoir effectiveness in the J₂ horizon was generated.     

Impact of the 2010 tsunami on an endangered insular soil–plant system

Natural catastrophes could damage island biodiversity and ecosystems, and their effects could become devastating if combined with human disturbances. In this study, we determined the effects of the tsunami occurred in Robinson Crusoe Island (Chile) on 27 February 2010 on an endangered soil–plant system. Using data of endemic Cabbage Trees (Dendroseris litoralis Skottsb.) and soil attributes taken before and after the 2010 event, we developed thematic maps to assess the changes in population size and soil substrate of Cabbage Trees caused by the tsunami. We determined that from 153 pre-tsunami (2009) standing Cabbage Trees, only 66 (43 %) survived in 2011, mostly in elevations above 25 m a.s.l. Before the tsunami, 86 (56 %) of Cabbage Trees were established in humus-rich soil sites whereas after the tsunami, this number declined to 53 (35 %). These results represent the first report of a severe population decline after a tsunami and indicate that tsunamis are an important source of species extinction in small oceanic islands not only by reducing the population size but also by reducing the quality of sites for plant growth.     

Anoxia in the Domanik basin of the Timan–Pechora region

Analysis of the carbon isotopic composition in aryl carotenoid derivatives, including isorenieratene, in bitumen from domanikoid rocks of the sections cropping out along the Chut River revealed that they contain anomalously heavy carbon, which is determined by the formation of these compounds from green sulfur bacteria of the family Chlorobiaceae. These bacteria use the peculiar process of carbon fixing as HCO₃^? in the reversed tricarboxilic acid cycle. The fact of hydrosulfuric contamination of the photic water layer in the Domanik basin is confirmed by the plurality of data. Anoxity in shelf water of the middle Frasnian Timan–Pechora basin is evident from lithological features such as, for example, lamination of some rocks and mass death of the fauna.     

Balneological study based on the hydrogeochemical aspects of the sulfate springs water (Hit–Kubaiysa region), Iraq

This research examined the balneological characteristics of spring waters within the area of Abu-Jir Fault Zone throughout the hydrogeologic aspects explained by the setting of the hydrogeologic units including the water-bearing horizons of Euphrates, Ana, and Baba Formations. The groundwater flow in the hydrogeologic system correlated with the trends of enrichment or depletion case processes of mineralization (spatial distribution maps of TDS and other components) show different phenomena of groundwater source and interconnection, which helps in the classification springs into two potential site. The physicochemical characteristics of the water flow from springs indicate a hydrochemical approach throughout the spatial variation of important parameters (using Rockware software) related to the balneological study. The monitoring network of the spring waters performed by seven field measurements and 33 variables (totaling to 720 detected measurements) in 18 springs approved the after desk study and water point inventory using a GPS apparatus (GARMIN SUMMIT-e TREX). The study examined the integrated hydrogeological aspects and spring water properties for evolutions and the classification of minero-medicinal water. The traditional hydrochemical information of the spring waters and their sediment properties correlated with balneological limits (standards and definitions) are used in the selection of springs characterized by balneotherapeutic applications. A suggested screening and ranking technique has been developed for evaluating preferable springs selected for natural therapy. The application of ranking technique indicates four graded consequent preferable springs for balneotherapeutic investment: first grade spring represented by Kubaiysa spring (S-4); second grade springs represented by Tawila spring (S-12); third grade springs represented by Mamora spring (S-15), Arnab spring (S-10), Zazoe spring (S-5), and Maqtoom spring (S-13); and fourth grade springs represented by Khalidiya spring (S-16) and Layeg spring (S-7).     

Crustal structure and rift tectonics across the Cauvery–Palar basin,Eastern Continental Margin of India based on seismic and potential field modelling

The Cauvery–Palar basin is a major peri-cratonic rift basin located along the Eastern Continental Margin of India (ECMI) that had formed during the rift-drift events associated with the breakup of eastern Gondwanaland (mainly India–Sri Lanka–East Antarctica). In the present study, we carry out an integrated analysis of the potential field data across the basin to understand the crustal structure and the associated rift tectonics. The composite-magnetic anomaly map of the basin clearly shows the onshore-to-offshore structural continuity, and presence of several high-low trends related to either intrusive rocks or the faults. The Curie depth estimated from the spectral analysis of offshore magnetic anomaly data gave rise to 23 km in the offshore Cauvery–Palar basin. The 2D gravity and magnetic crustal models indicate several crustal blocks separated by major structures or faults, and the rift-related volcanic intrusive rocks that characterize the basin. The crustal models further reveal that the crust below southeast Indian shield margin is ～36 km thick and thins down to as much as 13–16 km in the Ocean Continent Transition (OCT) region and increases to around 19–21 km towards deep oceanic areas of the basin. The faulted Moho geometry with maximum stretching in the Cauvery basin indicates shearing or low angle rifting at the time of breakup between India–Sri Lanka and the East Antarctica. However, the additional stretching observed in the Cauvery basin region could be ascribed to the subsequent rifting of Sri Lanka from India. The abnormal thinning of crust at the OCT is interpreted as the probable zone of emplaced Proto-Oceanic Crust (POC) rocks during the breakup. The derived crustal structure along with other geophysical data further reiterates sheared nature of the southern part of the ECMI.     

An assessment of the carrying capacity of groundwater resources in North China Plain region–Analysis of potential for development

Over-exploitation of groundwater in North China Plain (NCP) has resulted in a series of eco-environment problems. Sustainable use of groundwater resources in NCP, in particular management of groundwater resource carrying capacity (GRCC), faces an unprecedented challenge. Here we define GRCC, and a new assessment method is tentatively proposed and applied to evaluate GRCC based on the whole NCP, city administrative units and county administrative units. Our study divided the NCP into three zones, i.e. non-overexploited non-overloaded zone (NNZ), overexploited but non-overloaded zone (ONZ), and overexploited overloaded zone (OOZ). Results confirmed 27.6% of counties belonged to NNZ. However, 58.9% of counties and NCP as a whole belonged to ONZ, and 13.5% of counties belonged to OOZ. Spatially, NNZs were mainly distributed in Beijing, parts of eastern coastal cities and Henan Province. OOZs were mostly distributed in middle-eastern part of Cangzhou, parts of Dezhou, Tianjin and Binzhou, and the remaining areas belonged to ONZs. We suggest two approaches for enhancing GRCC, i) increasing the amount of available groundwater and ii) improving the water use efficiency. An increase of 11.0 billion cubic meters to the available groundwater levels combined with water use efficiency improvements up to 479 CNY per cubic meter of the world mean, the gross domestic product (GDP) sustained by groundwater in the NCP could reach 11.1 trillion CNY and maintain a 20 years of GDP development assuming the current rate of growth.     

Technogenic-tectonic earthquakes of the Dnieper–Donets aulacogen

The Mikhnevo Seismic Group of the Institute of Geosphere Dynamics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IGD RAS), and the Malin mini-group in the region of the Dnieper–Donets aulacogen, within which prospecting and mountain-explosion works were carried out from 2007 to 2015 on industrial scales, recorded a series of seismic events. Special attention has been focused on analysis of the nature of three earthquakes in 2015. Application of the spectral discrimination method log(Pg/Lg) and cross-correlation tools allowed us to identify the seismic events in 2015 as a special technogenic-tectonic type.     

Depression and elevation tsunami waves in the framework of the Korteweg–de Vries equation

Although tsunamis in the deep ocean are very long waves of quite small amplitudes, as they propagate shorewards into shallow water, nonlinearity becomes important and the structure of the leading waves depends on the polarity of the incident wave from the deep ocean. In this paper, we use a variable-coefficient Korteweg–de Vries equation to examine this issue, for an initial wave which is either elevation, or depression, or a combination of each. We show that the leading waves can be described by a reduction of the Whitham modulation theory to a solitary wave train. We find that for an initial elevation, the leading waves are elevation solitary waves with an amplitude which varies inversely with the depth, with a pre-factor which is twice the maximum amplitude in the initial wave. By contrast, for an initial depression, the leading wave is a depression rarefaction wave, followed by a solitary wave train whose maximum amplitude of the leading wave is determined by the square root of the mass in the initial wave.