Spatial Characteristics of Regional Wildfire Frequencies in Intermountain West Grass-Dominated Communities

Understanding the environmental factors that influence spatial patterns of rangeland wildfires facilitates both fire and land management decisions. I used discriminant analysis to examine ignition frequency of lightning-initiated fires in grass-dominated communities in the Intermountain West between 1980 and 1994, then mapped regional fire frequencies to illustrate spatial patterns. Two canonical discriminant functions effectively separate groups of high, medium, and low ignition frequencies, based on climate conditions and fuel characteristics. Regions of highest frequency tend to have large elevational differences, more mesic climates, and less annual grass cover. Spatial patterns of ignition frequencies tend to reflect local topography, with higher frequencies west of 119° W. Expansion of exotic annual grasses throughout the region may be reducing differences in ignition frequency between regions of highest and lowest frequency.     

Residential Location and White Attitudes Toward Mixed-Race Neighborhoods in Kalamazoo,Michigan

Abstract

Past studies have suggested that white attitudes toward mixed-race neighborhoods in northern metropolises vary spatially. Nonetheless, conflicting hypotheses exist in regard to the nature of these spatial patterns and explanations for them. Data gathered within the Kalamazoo Urbanized Area indicate that white attitudes are significantly related to both: 1) the level of interaction between whites and blacks, and 2) the distance between residence and the Negro neighborhood. Attitudes tend to be more favorable with higher interaction levels, and they tend to be less favorable as distance from the Negro neighborhood increases. When control is made for interaction, the relationship between attitude and distance is greatly weakened, indicating that interaction is the dominant variable. That does not eliminate the spatial component, however, because the racial interaction patterns in Kalamazoo are strongly related to distance from the black residential areas.     

Effects of fire, grazing, and the presence of shrubs on Chihuahuan desert grasslands

Responses of herbaceous and suffrutescent species to fire, grazing, and presence of Prosopis glandulosa were examined in a Chihuahuan desert grassland in south-central New Mexico. Treatments were assigned randomly to eight 12×8 m plots within each of two blocks. Following fires in June 1995, unfenced plots were exposed to livestock grazing over 4 years. Plots were established that either included or excluded P. glandulosa. Perennial grass cover, primarilyBouteloua eriopoda , decreased by 13% in burned plots but increased 5% in unburned areas. Conversely, perennial forb cover was 4% greater after fire. Perennial grass frequency decreased 30% more and perennial forb frequency increased 10% more following burning. Further, increases in evenness after fire resulted in a 225% increase in species diversity. Grazing also resulted in a decrease in perennial grass cover while frequency decreased 22% more in grazed than ungrazed plots. Only frequency and not cover of perennial forbs and annual grasses increased more following grazing. Presence of P. glandulosa had no differential effect on responses of non-shrub species. Fires were conducted during near drought conditions while grazing occurred during years of precipitation equivalent to the long-term average. Precipitation immediately following fire may be critical for recovery of B. eriopoda -dominated desert grasslands; relationships between fire and post-fire precipitation patterns require future investigation.     

Gender Differences in Chronic Exposure to Traffic-Related Air Pollution—A Simulation Study of Working Females and Males

The objective of this study was to identify spatial variability in exposure to outdoor traffic-related air pollution with specific emphasis on comparing exposure estimates for working females and males across a metropolitan area. A spatial exposure simulation model was used to estimate annual average exposure to traffic-related nitrogen dioxide for males and females reporting regular work in census tracts other than that of their residence, in Vancouver, British Columbia. The model produced estimates of annual average exposure in six microenvironments (home indoor, work indoor, other indoor, outdoor, in-vehicle to work, and in-vehicle other) using time-activity patterns and work flow data, for males and females in each of 382 census tracts. This allowed for the identification of spatial variations in exposure estimates for each gender, due to mobility within the study region. Indoor sources of nitrogen dioxide were not included in the simulation. No significant differences in estimated total exposure were found between working females and males in general. Small but observable spatial differences, however, were found between working females and males at the 90th percentile of the exposure distributions associated specifically with the work indoor microenvironment. These were highest in suburban areas (+3 μ g/m³ for females, relative to total exposures in the range of 26 to 37 μ g/m³ annual average hourly nitrogen dioxide). These results identify specific geographic locations in the study area where personal monitoring studies might be warranted and suggest that the inclusion of workplace locations in multivariate modeling could be useful to further understand differences in estimated exposures.     

三种活跃火遥感产品（MODIS C6、VIIRS V1和VIIRS J1）一致性与差异性对比

MODIS C6、VIIRS V1和VIIRS J1是NASA火灾信息资源管理系统（FIRMS）2020年首次同步发布的三套全球活跃火遥感产品。鉴于卫星过赤道时间、空间分辨率、火情监测算法有别,分析MODIS和VIIRS不同活跃火产品监测结果一致性和差异性,对明确不同火产品的适用性至关重要。利用中南半岛同年活跃火矢量产品,通过GIS渔网（1 km）定量分析不同时间尺度（全年、旱/雨季和昼/夜）活跃火发生的频次与强度特征,横向对比了三套活跃火产品的一致性与差异。结果表明：① 中南半岛三套产品逐月发生频次一致性最高,逐日次之,逐时最低。全年“有火区”格网占比37.23%,其中VIIRS相应比重三倍于MODIS,且J1略高于V1。三套产品两两比较时,VIIRS V1/VIIRS J1组合总体一致性最高,VIIRS J1/MODIS C6组合一致性最低。② 三套产品旱季“有火区”占比、活跃火发生频次与强度均显著高于雨季,且VIIRS V1与J1活跃火发生强度空间分布一致性更高。旱季V1活跃火累积发生频次最高、发生强度更强;雨季J1相应频次最高,发生强度较强。③ 三套产品白天“有火区”占比、活跃火累积发生频次均高于夜间,发生强度空间分布一致性亦高于夜间,其中VIIRS V1与J1夜间一致性最高。且昼/夜V1活跃火累积发生频次和“有火区”占比均最高,但J1发生强度最强。④ VIIRS V1与J1监测精度更高,空间覆盖范围更广,且VIIRS V1更适用于旱季、白天和夜间活跃火相关研究,而VIIRS J1对雨季活跃火的探测水平更高,但MODIS C6的优势在于历史数据丰富。     

Incorporating spatial association into statistical classifiers: local pattern-based prior tuning

ABSTRACT

This paper proposes a new classification method for spatial data by adjusting prior class probabilities according to local spatial patterns. First, the proposed method uses a classical statistical classifier to model training data. Second, the prior class probabilities are estimated according to the local spatial pattern and the classifier for each unseen object is adapted using the estimated prior probability. Finally, each unseen object is classified using its adapted classifier. Because the new method can be coupled with both generative and discriminant statistical classifiers, it performs generally more accurately than other methods for a variety of different spatial datasets. Experimental results show that this method has a lower prediction error than statistical classifiers that take no spatial information into account. Moreover, in the experiments, the new method also outperforms spatial auto-logistic regression and Markov random field-based methods when an appropriate estimate of local prior class distribution is used.     

UK-based terrorists' antecedent behavior: A spatial and temporal analysis

Background and purposeTerrorism is a real and present danger. The build-up to an attack includes planning, travel, and reconnaissance which necessarily require the offender to move through their environment. Whilst research has examined patterns of terrorist attack locations, with a few exceptions (e.g. Rossmo & Harries, 2011), it has not examined the spatial behavior of the terrorists themselves. In this paper, we investigate whether the spatial mobility patterns of terrorists resemble those of criminals (and the wider population) and if these change in the run up to their attacks.MethodUsing mobile phone data records for the ringleaders of four different UK-based terrorist plots in the months leading up to their attacks, we examine the frequency with which terrorists visit different locations, how far they travel from key anchor points such as their home, the distance between sequential cell-site hits and how their range of movement varies as the planned time to attack approaches.ConclusionsLike the wider population (and criminals), the sample of terrorists examined exhibited predictable patterns of spatial behavior. Most movements were close to their home location or safe house, and they visited a relatively small number of locations most of the time. Disaggregating these patterns over time provided mixed evidence regarding the way in which their spatial activity changed as the time to the planned attack approached. The findings are interpreted in terms of how they inform criminological understanding of the spatial behavior of terrorists, and the implications for law enforcement.     

Estimating spatial efficiency using cyber search,GIS, and spatial optimization: a case study of fire service deployment in Los Angeles County

ABSTRACT

The efficiency of public investments and services has been of interest to geographic researchers for several decades. While in the private sector inefficiency often leads to higher prices, loss of competitiveness, and loss of business, in the public sector inefficiency in service provision does not necessarily lead to immediate changes. In many cases, it is not an entirely easy task to analyze a particular service as appropriate data may be difficult to obtain and hidden in detailed budgets. In this paper, we develop an integrative approach that uses cyber search, Geographic Information System (GIS), and spatial optimization to estimate the spatial efficiency of fire protection services in Los Angeles (LA) County. We develop a cyber-search process to identify current deployment patterns of fire stations across the major urban region of LA County. We compare the results of our search to existing databases. Using spatial optimization, we estimate the level of deployment that is needed to meet desired coverage levels based upon the location of an ideal fire station pattern, and then compare this ideal level of deployment to the existing system as a means of estimating spatial efficiency. GIS is adopted throughout the paper to simulate the demand locations, to conduct location-based spatial analysis, to visualize fire station data, and to map model simulation results. Finally, we show that the existing system in LA County has considerable room for improvement. The methodology presented in this paper is both novel and groundbreaking, and the automated assessments are readily transferable to other counties and jurisdictions.     

Modeling the spatial patterns of human wildfire ignition in Yunnan province,China

Despite wildfire being an important regulator of dryland ecosystems, uncontrolled wildfire can be harmful to both forest ecosystems and human society, and wildfire prevention and control continue to raise worldwide concern. Wildfire management depends on knowledge of wildfire ignitions, both for cause and location. The regimes and factors influencing wildfire ignition have been studied at length. Humans have a profound effect on fire regimes and human activity is responsible for igniting the largest number of fires in our study area. Understanding the spatial patterns of ignitions is foremost to achieving efficiency in wildfire prevention. Previous studies mainly concentrate on overall wildfire risk integrating numerous factors simultaneously, yet the importance of human factors on ignition has not received much attention. In this study, we mapped human accessibility to explore the influence of human activity on wildfire ignition in a simple and straightforward way. A Bayesian weights-of-evidence (WofE) method was developed based on fire hotspots in China's Yunnan province extracted from satellite images and verified as known wildfires for the period 2007–2013. We considered a set of factors that impact fire ignition as associated with human accessibility: the locations of settlements, roads, water and farmland susceptible to human wildfire ignition. Known points of likely wildfire ignition were selected as training samples and all suspected thematic maps of the factors were taken as explanatory layers. Next, the weights of each layer in terms of its explanatory power were computed and used to generate evidence based on a threshold to pass a statistical test. The conditional independence (CI) of each layer was checked with the Agterberg-Cheng test. Finally, the posterior probability was calculated and its precision validated using samples of both presence and absence by withheld validation data. A comparison of WofE models was made to test the predictability. Results show proximity to villages, roads and farmland are strongly associated with human wildfire ignition and that wildfire more often occurs at an intermediate distance from high-density human activity. The WofE method proved more powerful than logistic regression, improving predictive accuracy by 10% and was more straightforward in presenting the association of dependence and independence. In addition, WofE with 1000 m buffer bands is more robust in predicting human wildfire ignition risk than binary or 100 m buffers for the ecoregion studied. Our results are significant for advising practical wildfire management and resource allocation, evaluation of human ignition control and also provides a foundation for future efforts toward integrated wildfire prediction.     

Preliminary Analysis of the Temporal Patterns of Heavy Rainfall across the Southeastern United States

This paper examines trends in heavy rainfall events across the southeastern United States over the past century. Time series of the number of annual storm events over a 76.2 mm threshold were used for analysis. Significant trends that had some spatial coherence were identified. Increasing trends were detected in a region extending from northeastern Texas to the Appalachians, with a weaker signal of decreasing events along the East Coast. These patterns may be linked to fluctuations in the strength and migration of the Bermuda High.     

Management of wildfires with a geographical information system

Abstract

Wildfires pose a constant threat to natural resources, endangered species, human property and even human lives. Effective management of wildfires requires a thorough understanding of the environmental and human related factors that are important to wildfires, as well as the complex spatial relationships among them. A geographical information system was used to analyse the data of the Idyllwild 7-5-minute quadrangle in southern California, U.S.A. A probability model which incorporated topography, vegetation, temperature, precipitation, proximity to buildings and proximity to transportation was constructed to generate the distribution of the probability of fire occurrence. Critical zones of danger from fire which need suppression were delineated. Two hypothetical spatial strategies of prescribed burning were evaluated in terms of their effectiveness in reducing the danger to the district from fire and producing a more desirable spatial pattern.     

Spatial Dispersion of Intra-Urban Juvenile Delinquency

Abstract

Studies of the spatial distribution of juvenile delinquency have generally been of a correlational nature. It is felt that geostatistical techniques such as centrography can offer complementary insights into spatial patterns of urban delinquency. The spatial dispersion of delinquent activity of Phoenix, Arizona for 1968 was assessed centrographically to determine differences in the dispersion of groups within selected delinquent populations. Greatest differences in dispersion were found when both offense and residence locations of delinquents were arrayed by ethnic group membership. For most groups of delinquents, it was found that the dispersion of residence locations was greater than was the dispersion of offense locations. Suggestions are made for classroom adaptation of the spatial methodology presented.     

A land-use mix allocation model considering adjacency,intensity, and proximity

ABSTRACT

Land-Use Mix (LUM) refers to the strategy of integrating complementary functions within a building or area. While LUM has become a dominant approach in urban planning, its actual benefits and vision for spatial planning remain unclear. To clarify this issue, this study discerns the spatial features of land-use patterns depending on the compatibilities among land-use categories. Accordingly, this study introduces three LUM measures – adjacency, intensity, and proximity – to identify differences in the spatial distribution of land-use categories. Based on these measures, a land-use allocation model is developed to specify spatial patterns satisfying the given compatibilities. This model is tested by applying the concept of the neighborhood unit on a case study of normative land-use patterns subject to specified compatibilities. The results describe spatial features of four compatibility sets, including a set exhibiting a compatibility conflict between the same land-use pair and LUM measures when, for example, a given land-use pair is compatible in terms of intensity but incompatible in terms of proximity. Understanding the spatial features of a normative land-use pattern that satisfies various possible compatibilities will facilitate the incorporation of the LUM approach into local planning guidance and zoning ordinances.     

Are Fabiana imbricata shrublands advancing over northwestern Patagonian grasslands? A population dynamics study involving fire and precipitation

Shrub encroachment is the advance of woody plants over grasslands. For some shrub species this process is favoured by fire and high precipitation. In northwestern Patagonia spring precipitation is related with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Over the past years, ENSO has shown an increase in both amplitude and frequency. Our study focuses on the population dynamics of the shrub Fabiana imbricata Ruiz & Pav. (Solanaceae) using stochastic models which involve different fire frequencies and variations in spring precipitation. Our results indicate that F. imbricata's population grows at a wide range of fire frequencies, reaching its maximum every 6–10 years. The elasticity analysis show that, as fire frequency diminishes, population growth rate depends almost exclusively on adult survival, recruitment events are rare and the presence of seedlings or juveniles is seldom observed. In this case, the landscape would be formed by mature F. imbricata shrublands, and population persistence would depend on adult survival, seed production and their accumulation in the soil bank. However, in the case of very high fire frequencies, more recurrent recruitment pulses would be observed, with a landscape dominated by young shrublands composed of individuals of different ages and reproductive status.     

三工河流域绿洲土地利用对土壤特性的影响

Understanding the effect of human activities on the soil environment is fundamental to understanding global change and sustainable development. In the process of transformation of tropical rain forests and semiarid grasslands to farmlands, land degradation usually occurs. But the transformation of arid desert landscape to oasis is found to have quite different consequences. Taking an alluvial plain oasis in the north piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains as a case study, we investigate oasis soil properties related to different land-use systems during the transformation of arid desert to oases. Selected land-use systems con- sisted of an annual crop field less than 3 years old, annual crop field 3-6 years old, annual crop field more than 6 years old, perennial crop field less than 4 years old, perennial crop field of 4-6 years old, perennial crop field more than 6 years old, abandoned farmland more than 3 years old, woodland field more than 6 years old, ecological forestation field, natural shrubbery field, desert grass land, and saline or alkaline field. Different land-use systems affect significantly the distribution of sand, silt and clay. Sand content in oasis soil tends to decrease with cultivation years but silt and clay contents tend to be increased in the oasis soils. Soil fertility is higher in the land-use systems under strong human disturbance than under weak human disturbance. Oasis soil nutrients also tend to increase with cultivation years. Soils have a significantly lower salinity in the land-use systems under strong human disturbance than under weak human disturbance. Soil organic matter and nutrients of the annual and perennial crop systems in the oasis tend to increase with cultivation time with the oasis soil acting as a carbon sink. These results show that soils are not degraded and the soil quality is gradually improved under rational land use and scientific management patterns, including uniform exploitation of land resources, effective irrigation systems, sound drainage systems, balanced ferti     

ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN MIGRATION PATTERNS—DISPARITIES AMONG ARABS AND JEWS IN THE PERIPHERAL REGIONS OF ISRAEL*

Studies of migration patterns in national peripheries of countries do not distinguish between different population groups in these regions. The present study examines spatial patterns of Arab and Jewish populations in Israel's national periphery. The migration trends of Arabs and Jews in the northern national periphery (the Galilee) are compared with those of the southern national periphery (the Negev). The Arab and Jewish populations within these areas show different spatial patterns of migration: in both the northern and the southern peripheries, Jews tend to migrate from the periphery to the core, while Arabs tend to migrate within the periphery. These differences increase the ratio of Arabs to Jews in both regions. The findings suggest that researchers should examine subregions and subgroups when studying migration patterns.     

Climatic characteristics of high temperature in East China during 1961–2005

Based on the daily maximum temperature data covering the period 1961-2005, temporal and spatial characteristics and their changing in mean annual and monthly high temperature days（HTDs）and the mean daily maximum temperature（MDMT）during annual and monthly HTDs in East China were studied.The results show that the mean annual HTDs were 15.1 and the MDMT during annual HTDs was 36.3℃in the past 45 years.Both the mean annual HTDs and the MDMT during annual HTDs were negative anomaly in the1980s and positive anomaly in the other periods of time,oscillating with a cycle of about 12-15 years.The mean annual HTDs were more in the southern part,but less in the northern part of East China.The MDMT during annual HTDs was higher in Zhejiang,Anhui and Jiangxi provinces in the central and western parts of East China.The high temperature process（HTP） was more in the southwestern part,but less in northeastern part of East China.Both the HTDs and the numbers of HTP were at most in July,and the MDMT during monthly HTDs was also the highest in July.In the first 5 years of the 21st century,the mean annual HTDs and the MDMT during annual HTDs increased at most of the stations,both the mean monthly HTDs and the MDMT during monthly HTDs were positive anomalies from April to October,the number of each type of HTP generally was at most and the MDMT in each type of HTP was also the highest.     

The role of fire as a long-term landscape modifier: Evidence from long-term fire observations (1922–2000) in Greece

The objective of this paper is to document the role of fire in shaping the landscape by identifying links between historical fire records and the current landscape indicating that fire favors certain land use/land cover (LULC) types. We geo-referenced fire records taken from 1922 to 2000 in Aitoloakarnania, the largest prefecture -in terms of surface area- of Greece and compared the past LULC classes where fires burned to the present landscape. The outputs indicated a shift of the historic fire ignition points from natural to agricultural-related LULC classes since a significant proportion of fire incidents that, according to the fire records, burnt natural vegetation units is currently located in agricultural landscape units. Additionally, a significant proportion of the fire-affected land cover classes retain their character thus supporting the argument that these classes, especially fire-prone or fire-resistant, have developed mechanisms to cope with fire. In such ecosystems the role of fire is to maintain rather than transform land cover classes.The findings of this research lead us to conclude that fire can be perceived as a long-term landscape modifier in the Mediterranean, although its effects may vary from region to region because of differences in regeneration patterns among the main land cover types, topographic constraints and local fire histories. Historical fire records extending back to the early 20th century proved to provide valuable information that can reveal interesting patterns of fire burning history and explain present land cover and use patterns. This knowledge, documented from historical records, can be used to develop fire management and land cover/land use management planning.     

A 7000-Year Record of Environmental Change,Bear Lake,Rocky Mountain National Park,USA

Few long-term records of the fire history of Rocky Mountain National Park exist. Data from a lake sediment core was used to reconstruct changes in vegetation and fire frequencies over the last 7000 cal yr. Bear Lake is a high-elevation lake surrounded by subalpine vegetation in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Pollen data indicate that a warm and dry climate prevailed between ca. 7000 and 5000 cal yr BP. Temperatures increased until shortly before ca. 3500 cal yr BP when evidence for a marked decline is seen. Cooler-than-present conditions were maintained until ca. 1700 cal yr BP, when conditions transitioned to more like those of the present-day climate. Based on macroscopic charcoal analyses, fire frequency had varied between two and five episodes per 1000 years. The largest peak in charcoal was at ca. 590 cal yr BP. The fire return interval has varied with climate over time; however, we calculate a fire return interval of 325 years over the past 7000 years. Given these results, fire activity is likely to increase under current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate projections of an increase in annual temperatures.     

FIRE EFFECTS ON SOIL HETEROGENEITY BENEATH CHAMISE AND REDSHANKS CHAPARRAL

The origin of soil heterogeneity found in Adenostoma fasciculatum and A sparsifolium chaparral was investigated in the Santa Monica Mountains, California. Possibilities were that geologic and genetic processes created inherent variability in surface soils, and/or that chaparral vegetation generated this variability. Fourteen soil properties were assessed under 17 pairs of the two shrub species before (1984) and after (1985) a wildfire. Hypotheses were that, although magnitudes of soil properties may change with fire, the inherent soil patterns would remain, while vegetation-influenced patterns might either be accentuated or obliterated. All but one of the 14 soil properties changed after fire, and 8 of these changed in the same direction for both shrub species. Different magnitudes of change, as well as opposite changes in 5 soil properties, led to an elimination of most spatial heterogeneity after fire. Eleven soil properties showed significant pre-burn differences between shrub species, while only 3 did so after fire. Vegetation influence was responsible for the spatial soil heterogeneity in the mature stand of chaparral, apparently developing over one regeneration period of about 40 years. With the obliteration of fine-scale soil differences during each fire cycle, soil heterogeneity cannot play a role in determining vegetation regeneration patterns. The creation of a more uniform substrate after fire, however, may favor sprouting over seeding strategies in postfire succession. [Key words: chaparral, fire ecology, soil properties, California.]