Immigrant Concentration and Domestic Migrant Dispersal: Is Movement to Nonometropolitan Areas “White flight”?

This article examines linkages between recent domestic out-migration from immigrant gateway metropolitan areas and nonmetropolitan migration gains, based on data of the 1990 census, 1996 Current Population Survey, and population estimates for the 1990–1996 period from the Bureau of Census. Our analysis of these data suggests that there is a mirror image of migration patterns between high immigration metropolitan area losses and nonmetropolitan area gains. This is especially evident in the West with the relationship between Los Angeles and San Francisco areas' losses on the one hand, and the region's nonmetropolitan gains on the other. While pre-elderly and elderly retirees have contributed to these nonmetropolitan gains, much of it is attributable to the destination choices of suburban-like populations—Whites with children, not college educated, and with lower incomes—that have been leaving high immigration metropolitan areas. This new, more dispersed form of “White flight” holds the potential for reinvigorating smaller, nonmetropolitan communities, but creating, as well, new demographic divisions across space.     

Migration,Sources of Income,and Community Change in the Nonmetropolitan Northwest

During the late 1980s and the first half of the 1990s, the nonmetropolitan Northwest grew quite rapidly, narrowing the gap between the growth rates of the metropolitan Northwest, and oupacing national rates. This growth was largely the result of in-migration from regional and national metropolitan areas. Traditional economic base theory does not explain the recent growth, as employment levels in in the region's basic industries continue to stagnate and decline, and the sources of income for these in-migrants remain a mystery. This paper utilizes data from the 1990 Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) to determine the extent to which metropolitan-origin migrants are measurably different from oldtime nonmetropolitan residents on certain socioeconomic variables, in an attempt to understand the ways in which the newcomers survive financially. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) shows that newcomers are younger, earn less in wages and salary, receive more nonearnings income, and reside in more valuable housing compared with the resident population. Discriminant analysis shows that differences in the earned income measures are largely explained by age differences, while the nonearnings income and value of residence remainsignificantly higher for the metropolitan origin migrants even when age and earned income are controlled. While the analysis indicates that measurable socioeconomic differences do exist between the two populations, it appears that the current wave of growth and change in the nonmetropolitan Northwest is much more complicated than a simple newcomer-oldtimer dichotomy.     

NEW APPROACHES TO DELINEATING METROPOLITAN AND NONMETROPOLITAN SETTLEMENT: GEOGRAPHERS DRAWING THE LINE

The federal government's Office of Management and Budget, with staff support from the Census Bureau's Population Division, is responsible for maintaining the statistical standard that provides criteria used to define metropolitan settlement and that delineates individual metropolitan areas for use in federal statistics. Review of the current standard, which dates from 1990, is now under way in conjunction with the 2000 census. Reviews of the emergence of the metropolitan form of settlement in the United States and of previous geospatial units representing metropolitan settlement are provided. A framework of geospatial units to represent the various elements of settlement at the close of the 20th century, including metropolitan and nonmetropolitan forms, is offered. Three papers that provide new approaches to delineating metropolitan and nonmetropolitan settlement in the United States are introduced. [Keywords: metropolitan and nonmetropolitan settlement, geospatial units of analysis, federal government, statistics.]     

Responding to Negative Public Attitudes towards Immigration through Analysis and Policy: regional and unemployment dimensions

ABSTRACT

This paper examines two key dimensions of the impact of immigration for Australia and related policy aspects. One is sub-national and the other is national. They are, first, the regional location aspects of immigration and, second, the aggregate unemployment implications of immigration. These are chosen so as to focus on two important issues that condition public attitudes towards immigration. In relation to the first, there is a common positive view that channelling migration towards regional areas assists regional development and reduces pressure on metropolitan areas. The paper reviews regional concepts embodied in Australian immigration policy and the ways in which visa arrangements have implemented policies geared towards the regional dispersal of immigrants. Using official data, it discusses the demographic impacts of these policies and, in particular, considers the extent to which immigrants to regional Australia remain there over the longer term. In relation to unemployment, a common concern is that immigrants take jobs from local workers. The paper examines—using statistical regression methodology—the relationship between immigration and national aggregate unemployment in Australia. It evaluates the net consequences of immigration for both existing residents and new arrivals together. The paper concludes that, with good policy design in each case, regional location encouragement can be effective for immigrants and that immigrants need not take more jobs than they create. The analysis demonstrates that mixed-methods approaches to important social science issues can be productive, and helpful also for policy. Evidence, such as that presented in this paper, offers a powerful basis from which to counter negative public and political discourses surrounding immigration in contemporary Australia.     

Migration,Sources of Income,and Community Change in the Nonmetropolitan Northwest

During the late 1980s and the first half of the 1990s, the nonmetropolitan Northwest grew quite rapidly, narrowing the gap between the growth rates of the metropolitan Northwest, and oupacing national rates. This growth was largely the result of in-migration from regional and national metropolitan areas. Traditional economic base theory does not explain the recent growth, as employment levels in in the region's basic industries continue to stagnate and decline, and the sources of income for these in-migrants remain a mystery. This paper utilizes data from the 1990 Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) to determine the extent to which metropolitan-origin migrants are measurably different from oldtime nonmetropolitan residents on certain socioeconomic variables, in an attempt to understand the ways in which the newcomers survive financially. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) shows that newcomers are younger, earn less in wages and salary, receive more nonearnings income, and reside in more valuable housing compared with the resident population. Discriminant analysis shows that differences in the earned income measures are largely explained by age differences, while the nonearnings income and value of residence remainsignificantly higher for the metropolitan origin migrants even when age and earned income are controlled. While the analysis indicates that measurable socioeconomic differences do exist between the two populations, it appears that the current wave of growth and change in the nonmetropolitan Northwest is much more complicated than a simple newcomer-oldtimer dichotomy.     

METROPOLITAN,URBAN, AND RURAL COMMUTING AREAS: TOWARD A BETTER DEPICTION OF THE UNITED STATES SETTLEMENT SYSTEM

Discontent with the current definition of metropolitan areas and the lack of differentiation within nonmetropolitan territory provided the incentive for the research presented here. Census tracts rather than counties were used as the building blocks for assignment of tracts, not just to metropolitan areas, but also to larger towns (10,000 to 49,999) and to smaller urban places (2,500 to 9,999). The analysis used 1990 census-defined urbanized areas and tract-to-tract commuter flows. Results include a modest shift of population from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan, as well as a significant reduction in the areal size of metropolitan areas, disaggregation of many areas, and frequent reconfiguration to a more realistic settlement form. [Key words: metropolitan, urban-rural, commuting.]     

Immigration,Polarization, or Gentrification? Accounting for Changing House Prices and Dwelling Values in Gateway Cities

Past research has identified immigration, social polarization, and gentrification as factors with significant impacts upon price movements and other housing characteristics in gateway cities. This study attempts to compare the effects of these three factors in Toronto and Vancouver, Canada's primary gateway cities, over the period from 1971 to 1996. The paper describes house price changes from Multiple Listing Service rolls and changes of dwelling values in census tracts, and interprets visual evidence for the effects of the three factors. The observed centralization of price gains is then sharpened in a univariate and multivariate analysis of changes in dwelling values for census tracts in each metropolitan area. While there is consistency in the spatial patterns of changes in housing prices and dwelling values between the two cities, there are differences in the importance of the three processes at different times and places. Moreover, strong effects at the metropolitan scale become much more blurred with spatial disaggregation.     

Regional Comparisons of Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Migration in the 1970s and 1980s: Age and Place Implications*

Over the last thirty years, nonmetropolitan regions across the United States have experienced volatile population shifts ranging from rapid growth to persistent decline. Several authors have suggested that the age structure of the population may contribute to these population trends. In the 1970s, the older baby boomers were entering labor and housing markets, while the younger boomers were enrolling in nonmetropolitan colleges and universities. By the 1980s, this large cohort was aging into a different stage in the life course. This article examines metropolitan and nonmetropolitan population shifts during the 1970s and 1980s within an age‐cohort framework. Using Public Use Microsample data from 1980 and 1990, the analysis explores relationships between housing market, labor market, place characteristics, and the migration flows of different age cohorts. The analysis focuses on cohort‐specific in‐migration to two regions: New England and the Four Corners states of Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. The results are consistent with a life‐course understanding of migration behavior, especially during the late 1970s, with older cohort shifts directed towards nonmetropolitan destinations and younger cohort shifts more influenced by labor and housing‐market variables. The results further demonstrate a large potential for future nonmetropolitan population growth, yet these growth experiences are likely to be regionally differentiated. These results have important policy implications for nonmetropolitan regions.     

大都市区城市扩张过程及形态对比分析——以东京、纽约和上海为例

大都市区化是全球城市化进程中的普遍现象,研究大都市区域城市扩张进程对理解其未来增长趋势、区域可持续发展具有重要意义。大都市区土地扩张及区域间的对比分析,以及都市区发育过程中城市扩张的一般化空间模式还未被深入理解。论文选取东京、纽约和上海3个大都市区,获取1990—2015年间3期Landsat影像数据,使用梯度和格网分析法,采用城市土地密度函数和城市扩张指数,从建设用地数量变化及其时空分布、城市形态变化等方面,多角度对比分析各城市不同阶段建设用地增长的时空差异。结果表明：① 大都市区边界仍在不断扩展,建设用地在研究期内持续增长;20多年间东京、纽约和上海的建设用地面积分别增长了63%、53%和233%;上海一直处于高强度扩张状态,而纽约的城市扩张在后期几近停滞。② 大都市区建设用地密度从中心向外呈圈层递减式分布,城市核心区和边缘区半径的增长最明显;城市形态均趋向于紧凑。③ 新增建设用地时空异质性明显。东京的远郊新城不断建设,纽约一些尚有发展潜力的区域次中心仍在扩张但速率逐渐放缓,上海的核心区外围增长剧烈并逐渐向远城区推进。④ 大都市区域扩张先后经历高速期—缓慢期—停滞期,扩张进程表现为核心区膨胀—次中心及新城建设—逐步形成稳定的多中心结构。     

基于手机信令数据的城内迁居活跃度识别方法研究——以武汉市为例

中国城市的快速发展加速了城市内部人口的居住迁移,精细测度居民迁居行为及其空间分异特征,对于从人的行为视角来分析城市居住空间结构演进过程具有现实意义。本文以武汉都市发展区为例,基于手机信令大数据,提出净活跃度指标和总活跃度指标来量化描述迁居活跃度,并依据两个指标的分类及组合,将居民居住地划分为高迁入型活跃区、平稳型活跃区、高迁出型活跃区、高迁入型非活跃区、平稳型非活跃区与高迁出型非活跃区六种空间类型,进而探讨居民迁居的空间分布特征。结果表明：① 武汉都市发展区内部人口迁移总体呈现出从主城区向近郊区逐步迁移的趋势,且主城区人口总活跃度相较更高。② 主城区以高迁出型活跃区和高迁入型活跃区为主,近郊区则以平稳型非活跃区为主。③ 不同空间类型内的居住类型存在差异：高迁入型活跃区内以新建小区、高校住区、学区房、城中村为主;平稳型活跃区以农村居住地、园区周边住宅为主;高迁出型活跃区以老旧小区、园区周边住宅、城中村、农村居住地为主;非活跃区则以农村居住地为主。本文提出了一种基于时序手机信令大数据的居民迁居活跃度评价指标体系,并以实证研究证明其对于居民迁居地空间类型划分的有效性,研究结果可为相关规划决策部门掌控城市内部的人口迁移特征提供数据支撑、为城市不同区域针对性的进行公共资源配置提供参考依据。     

ATLANTA IN THE TELECOMMUNICATIONS AGE: THE FIBER-OPTIC INFORMATION NETWORK

This paper addresses the role of the Atlanta metropolitan area as a telecommunications center based on the use of fiber optics. The major focus is on the intrametropolitan layout of this network, including fiber-optic access points, downtown and suburban fiber loops, and the location of data service and teleservice centers. The aim is to identify congruence between high-technology firms and fiber-optic lines that produce clustering within the metropolitan region. Atlanta has a dense fiber-optic infrastructure in place in the CBD-Midtown area and in several corporate clusters in the suburbs. A number of fiber-optic carriers compete in the Atlanta market—including BellSouth, with approximately 400,000 miles of fiber-optic cable—giving Atlanta more miles of optic fiber than any other metropolitan area in the United States. This extensive fiber network bestows fresh advantages to old downtown property and businesses and creates burgeoning opportunities in the suburbs as it literally undergirds the growth of edge cities at such locations as Perimeter Center and Cumberland-Galleria. Long-established Atlanta firms such as Coca-Cola have drawn fiber sites to themselves, whereas sites on fiber-optic loops attract new businesses seeking ready backbone and broadband access to other metropolitan areas in the United States and cities around the globe. This study also focuses on Atlanta's position within the U.S. intermetropolitan telecommunications hierarchy, where the metropolitan area ranks sixth in total number of backbone connections with other U.S. Metropolitan areas. [Key words: Atlanta, fiber optics, telecommunications.]     

The suburbanization of poverty? An alternative perspective

A popular and powerful narrative focuses on a crisis of suburban decline in the United States. However, a consensus regarding the scope and scale of one dimension of suburban decline—poverty—is hindered by the use of contradictory definitions of suburban space. This research presents an alternative approach to measuring suburban poverty that is less computationally intensive yet capable of capturing complex shifts in the spatial distribution of poverty within metropolitan areas. An analysis of the distribution of poverty in the largest 100 metropolitan areas between 1990 and 2007–11 concludes that while poverty is increasing in the low-density suburbs of a handful of large metropolitan areas, the more general trend in most other metropolitan areas is an increase in poverty in moderately dense residential areas. Implicated in these trends are long-term trends in metropolitan area economic growth, a secular decline in inner-ring suburbs, and the impact of gentrification on housing opportunities for at-risk populations in large cities.     

Analyzing Changes in Urban Form and Commuting Time*

Abstract

Urban work trips have changed in important ways during the last decades. In Québec City, a medium-sized Canadian metropolitan area, commuting distances increased for both male and female workers between 1977 and 1996, while durations increased for male workers and decreased for female workers. This article seeks to identify spatial and social factors responsible for these changes. We develop a disaggregate model of trip duration estimated on the basis of large samples derived from travel surveys comparable through time. Using categorical variables to specify change, we are able to separate change effects from level effects attributable to various dimensions of urban form. Our analysis clearly indicates that, once travel mode and key social factors are controlled for, the shift from a monocentric to a dispersed city form is responsible, in the Québec metropolitan area, for increasing commuting time. This is contrary to findings in larger metropolitan areas, where, it has been argued, the suburbanization of jobs maintains stability in commuting duration.     

Neighborhood and socioeconomic change in emerging megapolitan nodes: tracking shifting social geographies in three rapidly growing United States metropolitan areas, 1980–2010

This paper investigates the complex demographic and social changes that have occurred in the neighborhoods of fast-growing United States metropolitan areas emerging as nodes in megapolitan regions between 1980 and 2010. A neighborhood typology is created using k-means cluster analysis to examine the demographic and housing characteristics, and geographic distribution, of neighborhoods that have existed in rapidly growing metropolitan areas. A socioeconomic index is created using principal component analysis (PCA) to analyze socioeconomic conditions within neighborhoods. Using data from the metropolitan areas of Las Vegas, Nevada; Austin, Texas; and Raleigh, North Carolina, this study identifies five neighborhood types, each of which has distinctive geographic and socioeconomic trends. The geographic orientation of each metropolitan area within their larger megapolitan region appears to have a role in the geography of neighborhood change. The results are also discussed in relation to human ecology, immigration, and economic restructuring.     

THE FILTERING DOWN PROCESS IN GEORGIA: THE THIRD STAGE IN THE PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE

Branch plants have been a major factor in the filtering down process in Georgia. Industrial movement down the urban hierarchy seems in general to describe filtering down prior to about 1960, but metropolitan to nonmetropolitan filtering down has been more characteristic of the past twenty years. High versus low technology industries are differently involved in the filtering down process, with high technology industries dominating new branch plant location in nonmetropolitan areas.     

2001: Reflections on the Spatial Odysseys of New Zealanders

‘Brain drain’ has been one of the abiding topics of public debate during 2000. Emigration of New Zealanders much more than immigration of new settlers has dominated discourses about international migration, even though for much of the year the country experienced overall net migration gains rather than net losses. This paper addresses the migration of New Zealanders with reference to both the international shortage of skilled labour, especially ‘white’ English speaking labour, and the growing debate about ‘replacement’ migration. The gradual recognition, both by politicians and academics, of a ‘New Zealand diaspora’ is examined.     

COMPREHENDING COMPLEXITY

Since 1905 the Bureau of the Census has devised and applied concepts and criteria for delineating metropolitan areas and has published statistics describing them. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and its predecessor, the Bureau of the Budget, have defined metropolitan areas for use by federal agencies since introducing standard metropolitan areas (SMAs) for the 1950 census. In the late 20th century, new national United States settlement forms emerged, and distinctions between urban and rural areas or between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas lost both their theoretical and practical significance. A proposed system of national settlement areas, applied experimentally to eight diverse states, uses counties (towns and cities in New England) as basic statistical units, with each categorized by its population density as ranked within both its state and the nation. Relative population density alone is an adequate and appropriate surrogate for activity patterns and interaction among geographic units, approximating the patterns delineated by current practice, while blanketing the nation with non-overlapping statistical aggregates. [Key words: metropolitan area definition, urban population density, census geography.]     

COMMUTING DIRECTIONALITY,A FUNCTIONAL MEASURE FOR METROPOLITAN AND NONMETROPOLITAN AREA STANDARDS

The daily journey to work is ubiquitous in American life. Portraying commuting behavior graphically at the subcounty level, however, has been hampered by technical obstacles. With desktop GIS and new analytical tools, the spatial particulars of commuting can be given clarity. This paper explores the use of a spatial statistic, the mean weighted direction of journey-to-work flows, to aggregate and depict commuting at the census tract level for the purpose of delineating metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. Using 1990 census data for Iowa, tract-to-tract flow vectors and resultant vectors are calculated and drawn for each census tract, and a set of functional areas for the state is produced. The research suggests that the concept of commuting directionality is a community characteristic requiring further attention. Directionality may be a useful component in a census-tract-level national settlement classification system made possible with disaggregated data and annual updates through the American Community Survey. [Key words: metropolitan areas, commuting, GIS, census tract, settlement classification.]     

POLYCENTRICITY OR DISPERSION?: CHANGES IN CENTER EMPLOYMENT IN METROPOLITAN SYDNEY, 1981 TO 1996

Much recent literature in urban studies, geography, and planning portrays an inexorable evolution toward polycentricity as a new “postmodern” metropolitan form. However, detailed and comparable empirical investigations, at once both comprehensive and disaggregated, are more elusive. A study by Gordon and Richardson (1996) of employment trends in Los Angeles—the archetypal polycentric metropolis—produced the surprising conclusion that a process of generalized dispersion rather than a clustering in major suburban subcenters seemed well established for the period 1970 to 1990. This paper adapts the Gordon-Richardson methodology to an investigation of centered versus noncentered employment trends in Sydney, Australia, between 1981 and 1996. Based on a detailed statistical analysis, the study suggests some parallels to the Los Angeles experience in the 1980s but uncovers a recentralization trend in the 1990s. The findings underline the importance of locality-specific factors and the need for further systematic and comparative research.     

THE DEMOGRAPHIC CONSEQUENCES OF METROPOLITAN POPULATION DECONCENTRATION IN THE U.S.

Although the recent growth in the nonmetropolitan population of the U.S. is now well documented, little attention has been given to the consequences these trends will have on the future composition and growth of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan regions. This paper discusses the feedback effects of migration on the future age structure and population growth of both regions during the period 1975–2000.