ON THE SENSITIVITY OF CONCLUSIONS ABOUT THE BASES OF COGNITIVE DISTANCE

The “ecological fallacy’ inherent in two studies of the correlation of cognitive distance with objective distance and travel time is considered. The studies reach opposite conclusions using similar types of data, but both involve different types of aggregation of cognitive-distance judgments. It is shown that, under certain circumstances, correlations based on aggregate data can lead to reverse conclusions to those based on more behaviorally valid disaggregate data. Hence such aggregation is unjustifiable and, as a result, neither study's conclusions can be relied upon.     

旅游供给与需求的空间关系研究

本文研究旅游供给与旅游需求的地域分布规律和空间联系特征，提出了旅游供给与需求的空间模式以及二者之间的动态平衡关系。并根据我国旅游供需分布特点，以大城市为中心，分析了不同地域旅游供需关系。     

Sensitivity of disease cluster detection to spatial scales: an analysis with the spatial scan statistic method

ABSTRACT

The spatial scan statistic method has been widely used for detecting disease clusters. Its results may be affected by scales, including the aggregation level of the input data and the population threshold used in the detection. Previous studies offered inconsistent findings, and few had considered both types of scales at the same time. Using 24 simulated datasets and two real disease datasets, we investigated the method’s sensitivity to the two types of scales. We aggregated the individual-level data into areal units of three levels, including county, town, and a 900 m grid. We detected clusters with three population thresholds, including 10%, 25%, and 50%. We used two measurements, distance between cluster centres and the Jaccard index, to quantify the consistency of clusters detected with different scale settings. We find: (1) the method is not greatly sensitive to the data aggregation level when the cluster is strong and in a place with high population density; (2) the method’s sensitivity to the population threshold is determined by the actual size of the true cluster; and (3) a regular grid with fine resolution is advantageous over the subjectively defined areal units. The process and findings may have broader meanings to similar spatial analyses.     

THE IMPORTANCE OF SCALE IN MEASURING THE SECONDARY EFFECTS IN REGRESSION ANALYSIS

This study proposes a method of using ecological¹ variables in regression analysis to identify the weak or secondary effects of independent variables without introducing spurious correlation due to aggregation.     

Forthcoming events

Abstract

This is the second of two papers which elaborates a framework for embedding urban models within GIS. In the first paper (Batty and Xie 1994), we outlined how the display functions of a proprietary GIS could be used to organize a series of external software modules which contained the central elements of the modelling process, namely dataset selection and analysis, and model specification, calibration, and prediction. In that paper, we dwelt on display and data analysis functions whereas here we outline the model-based functions of the system. We begin by reviewing residential location models based on population density theory, stating continuous and discrete model forms, and calibration methods. We then illustrate a pass through the software using data for the Buffalo urban region, showing how observed data and model estimates can be evaluated through graphic display. We present ways in which the system can be used to explore and fit a variety of models to different zoning systems and in so doing, show how subset selection and aggregation can be used to find models with good fit. Finally we draw conclusions and outline an agenda for further research.     

THE PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT OF GEOGRAPHERS IN CANADA

This paper considers the appropriateness of typologies of urban retailing areas based on multivariate functional data. The findings of a case study in which statistical and graphical methods were employed within the framework of multivariate ordination are presented. It is shown that the functional attributes of retail areas are closely associated with their location, accessibility, quality, morphology, size, period of development, and socioeconomic character.     

乌鲁木齐市居民购物行为特征研究

通过分析乌鲁木齐市居民购物行为问卷调查资料,从不同类型商品的角度对居民购物的时间特征、空间特征、居民出行的目的特征与方式特征进行了初步研究。得出了以下结论：（1）工作日下午下班以后是工作日选购各类商品的首选时段;休息日无固定时段是休息日选购各类商品的首选时段（除蔬菜类商品）。（2）夜间购物出行的频率最低。（3）新市区居民在购买不同类型商品时出行的距离较远,天山区居民购买不同类型商品时出行的距离较近。（4）在工作日主要以工作购物类型为主;在休息日主要以多重目的购物类型为主。（5）购买低等级商品主要是步行;购买中间等级商品和高等级商品主要是乘坐公交车。     

闽东北沿海罗源县土地利用空间分布格局的 多尺度分析

在不同的空间尺度上,制约土地利用空间分布的影响因子及其影响程度并不相同,因此区域空间分布格局 分析应优先考虑制约空间分布的影响因子识别及其影响程度的尺度依赖性的研究。本文以闽东沿海的罗源县为研 究区域,采样统计方法与GIS 技术,选取20 个候选影响因子,研究了该县主要土地利用空间分布格局的影响因子 及其空间尺度相关性。研究表明模型的解释能力、影响因子及其影响系数均会随研究尺度发生不同程度的变化,回 归模型的解释能力以及主要影响因子的制约程度总体上均随研究尺度增大呈增强趋势。除受坡度、海拔高程等地 形条件的严格制约外,罗源县主要地类均在一定程度上受到人口因素以及若干可达性因素的影响。     

Using landscape characteristics to define an adjusted distance metric for improving kriging interpolations

Interpolation of point measurements using geostatistical techniques such as kriging can be used to estimate values at non-sampled locations in space. Traditional geostatistics are based on the spatial autocorrelation concept that nearby things are more related than distant things. In this study, additional information was used to modify the traditional Euclidean concept of distance into an adjusted distance metric that incorporates similarity in terms of quantifiable landscape characteristics such as topography or land use. This new approach was tested by interpolating soil moisture content, pH and carbon-to-nitrogen (C:N) ratio measured in both the mineral and the organic soil layers at a field site in central Sweden. Semivariograms were created using both the traditional distance metrics and the proposed adjusted distance metrics to carry out ordinary kriging (OK) interpolations between sampling points. In addition, kriging with external drift (KED) was used to interpolate soil properties to evaluate the ability of the adjusted distance metric to incorporate secondary data into interpolations. The new adjusted distance metric typically lowered the nugget associated with the semivariogram, thereby better representing small-scale variability in the measured data compared to semivariograms based on the traditional distance metric. The pattern of the resulting kriging interpolations using KED and OK based on the adjusted distance metric were similar because they represented secondary data and, thus, enhanced small-scale variability compared to traditional distance OK. This created interpolations that agreed better with what is expected for the real-world spatial variation of the measured properties. Based on cross-validation error, OK interpolations using the adjusted distance metric better fit observed data than either OK interpolations using traditional distance or KED.     

Effects of spatial aggregation approaches on classified satellite imagery

Spatial aggregations of raster data based on the majority rule have been typically used in landscape ecological studies. It is generally acknowledged that (1) dominant classes increase in abundance while minor classes decrease in abundance or even disappear through aggregation processes; and (2) spatial patterns also change with aggregations. In this paper, we examined an alternative, random rule-based aggregation and its effects on cover type abundance and landscape patterns, in comparison with the majority rule-based aggregation. We aggregated a classified TM imagery (about 1.5 million ha) from 30m (4231 × 3717 pixels) incrementally to 990m resolution (132 pixels × 116 pixels). Cover type proportion, mean patch size ratio, aggregation index (AI), and fractal dimension (FD) were used to assess the effects of aggregation. To compare landscapes under different resolutions, we assumed that the landscapes were least distorted if (1) the cover type proportions and mean patch size ratios among classes were maintained, and (2) all cover types responded in the same way for a given index as aggregation levels increased. For example, distortion is introduced by aggregation if some cover types increase their AI values with increasing aggregation levels while other cover types decrease. Our study indicated that the two spatial aggregation techniques led to different results in cover type proportions and they altered spatial pattern in opposite ways. The majority rule-based aggregations caused distortions of cover type proportions and spatial patterns. Generally, the majority rule-based aggregation filtered out minor classes and produced clumped landscapes. Such landscape representations are relatively easy for interpreting and, therefore, are suitable for land managers to conceptualize spatial patterns of a study region. By contrast, the random rule-based aggregations maintained cover type proportions accurately, but tended to make spatial patterns change toward disaggregation. Overall, the measurements of landscape indices used in this study indicated that     

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF POTENTIAL-DENSITY REGRESSIONS

Strong correlations have been observed between potential indices and the densities of spatial variables. The conventional null hypothesis of bivariate regression is inappropriate for testing their significance. A randomization test is proposed and is applied to 1975 US population data by state. The resulting relationship has a significant correlation, but its slope could occur frequently under the null hypothesis. The correlation is shown to be related to the spatial autocorrelation of densities by constructing arrangements with prescribed values of the modified Moran index.     

GIS-cartography: visual decision support for spatio-temporal data handling

Abstract

This paper describes a new joint Dutch research initiative ‘GIS-cartography’, combining the research efforts of the cartographers of Utrecht University, Delft University of Technology and the International Institute for Aerospace Survey and Earth Sciences (ITC) in Enschede. The research initiative focuses on the quantification and visualization of data quality, which will be placed in the context of providing automated visual decision support in specific map use strategies. As these map use strategies can only be performed if the relevant cartographic images can be created, studies of both physical access to the data, user interfaces and the provision of sufficient support to allow the user to understand and to derive sensible conclusions from the data are included in the project. Before modules automatically visualizing data quality can be implemented, data documentation, standardization and integration have to be effected, therefore these issues are also covered.     

REPORT OF THE AAG DELEGATE TO THE CANADIAN ASSOCIATION OF GEOGRAPHERS

Formal program evaluation is one of the most widely used tools for program termination decisions in universities. By understanding and anticipating program evaluation, a farsighted geography department can convert it from a threat into a strategy for survival in the 1980s. In the process, many departments will be renewed and improved.     

Jobs and the Single Parent: An Analysis of Accessibility to Employment in Toronto

Abstract

In this article, we undertake an analysis of accessibility to jobs from the perspective of single-parent household members. Individuals in this demographic segment are of interest due to the fact they often face the double burden of household and employment responsibilities. A case study of the city of Toronto in Canada, an urban area that has seen an increase in absolute and relative numbers of single-parent households in recent years, is presented. Analysis is based on the application of relative accessibility deprivation indicators (RADI), which are calculated using model-based estimates of distance traveled for various population segments, as well as employment data for the city and its surroundings. The results of the analysis indicate that there are substantial differences in the levels of accessibility to jobs between members of single-parent households, in particular females, and members of other types of households.     

THE DEPENDENCE OF THE ANNUAL TOTAL ON THE NUMBER OF RAIN‐SPELLS AND THEIR YIELD IN THE MEDITERRANEAN

Rain‐spells are a key parameter for examining the variation in rainfall amounts, especially in arid and semi‐arid areas. A rain‐spell is defined as a period of consecutive days with rainfall above a certain determined Daily Rainfall Threshold (DRT). Two different seasons or two stations may have the same average TOTAL, but different synoptic conditions are the cause for the differences in their Number of Rain‐Spells (NRS) their Rain‐Spells Yield (RSY) or both. The present study examines whether a season is drier/wetter according to its length, or whether it depends on the NRS in 41 Mediterranean stations. It analyses the relationships between dry/wet seasons and various elements of the rain‐spells. These objectives are analysed both at a basin level of the entire Mediterranean, and at a station level. The main conclusions at the basin level are that precipitation amounts are not related to the length of the seasons, and therefore, a Short or a Long season can be either Dry or Wet. The significant positive correlation between the TOTAL and the annual NRS that was found indicates that a Dry season tends to have Few rain‐spells and a Wet season tends to have Many rain‐spells. At the station level of most stations, a Dry or Wet season is caused mainly by changes in the RSY and less so by changes in the NRS. This tendency is more evident in the southern Mediterranean. Furthermore, Wet seasons are characterized by an increase in the number of Long rain‐spells (longer than three days) and mainly in the RSY of these spells. These conclusions may serve to characterize the rainfall regime under any scenario due to a climatic change.     

芜湖高铁建设对居民出游行为影响调查及对策研究

从居民旅游交通决策行为、居民出游空间、居民出游行为预期影响3个角度分析芜湖市高铁建设对城市居民出游的影响.结果表明：（1）旅游交通是影响居民旅游决策的重要因素.（2）居民出游市场以近程为主,空间分布主要集中在100-400 km范围内,且东向出游特征明显,目的地以长三角地区为主.（3）高速铁路开通将增加芜湖居民出游交通工具的选择,改变原有的旅游市场空间,中远程出游比例增加,同时也会影响居民出游次数与天数以及景区的选择.最后,依据国内外学者对高铁旅游研究成果,结合本次问卷调查实际情况,初步探讨高速化背景下,芜湖市旅游的发展对策.     

AUTOMATED ISOCHRONES AND THE LOCATIONS OF EMERGENCY MEDICAL SERVICES IN CITIES

A method is described for the automatic calculation and graphical reproduction of isochrones around emergency medical centers in large cities. The isochrones are set for different time standards and for varying traffic conditions. The technique is based on the concept of a velocity field. It permits a rapid evaluation of coverage standards under different operating conditions.     

THE MOST PERFECT EXAMPLE OF AN ALIEN ECOLOGY EVER CONSTRUCTED

Much science-fiction literature is based upon the creation and exploration of alternative environments. Stanley G. Weinbaum's short story, “Parasite Planet,”introduces an unusual environment that may be wrong in the light of recent evidence on Venus but still stimulates the geographical imagination.