Spatial Patterns of Migration and Income Change in the Mountain West: The Dominance of Service‐Based,Amenity‐Rich Counties

One of the most recognizable and important changes occurring in the West is rapid population growth. This article intends to address questions associated with whether patterns of population growth and income migration are associated with “new” and “old” West economies. Rural restructuring in the U.S. has created a group of counties with service‐based economies. In the Mountain West, a number of counties with service‐based economies are located in areas with high levels of environmental or natural amenities, creating what has been termed the “New West.” Migration to the rural parts of the Mountain West, and the income transfers associated with migration, are increasingly concentrated within these New West counties. Rapid population growth, the changing characteristics of in‐migrants, and their spatial concentration in New West counties provide a basis for conflicts over what the rural West is becoming.     

中国人口收缩的城乡分异特征及形成机理

在县市尺度上对2000—2010年人口收缩区的城乡分异特征进行分析,划分出城增乡减型、城乡双收缩型和城减乡增型等类型,并建立人口收缩城乡分异的理论分析框架,探讨了不同类型的形成机理,主要的发现如下：① 2000—2010年,人口收缩单元占比约为38.6%,城增乡减型单元占据绝对主体,达到34.5%,而“城乡双收缩型”和“城减乡增型”单元占比均较低。② 中部地区人口收缩区城镇人口增长普遍较快,东北地区城乡双收缩的特征较为突出,而东部和西部地区存在较明显的空间分异。③ 城镇化水平和经济发展水平对人口收缩城乡分异特征的影响最为显著,城镇化水平较高而经济发展水平较低的人口收缩区越可能出现城镇人口增长缓慢甚至城乡双收缩。④ 经济发展速度、人口自然增长水平、公共服务等因素对人口收缩城乡分异特征也存在一定的影响。     

U.S. Intercounty Migration in the 1990s: People and Income Move Down the Urban Hierarchy

Internal migration within the United States continues to transform both the magnitude and composition of population at all geographic scales. During 1994 ‐ 1995, the majority of counties gained both people and income, largely as a consequence of net outmigration by higher income migrants from the nation's most populous cities. Regionally, net gainers of both people and income included counties in the West and South as well as other areas renowned for environmental amenities. Spatially, net migration flowed down the urban hierarchy from large central cities to adjacent suburbs which, in turn, exported migrants to exurban areas. Large cities tended to exchange migrants with nearby counties as well as other large cities. Migration patterns such as these are contributing to spatial deconcentration and economic disparity.     

Insights from past and present social science literature on the (unequal) development of New Zealand's rural communities

A review of social research on rural New Zealand undertaken as part of the National Science Challenge (NSC 11) “Building Better Homes, Towns and Cities” allows a fresh look at rural development within the context of New Zealand's colonial history. The research suggests that government development programmes and legislation privileged those responsible for producing the bulk of New Zealand's export income. Cultural attitudes, structural inequalities and a failure to understand how the character of, and social relations in, rural areas have changed has impeded particularly Māori economic growth, the participation of women, and non‐farm sectors of rural society, to the detriment of all.     

AMENITY MIGRATION IN THE U.S. SIERRA NEVADA*

ABSTRACT. Since 1960 California's Sierra Nevada counties have ranked among the regions with the strongest relative population growth in the state. Reassessment of peripheral areas has been the main force driving population and settlement growth in the central Sierra Nevada of California and Nevada, termed “amenity migration” or “counterurbanization.” This study analyzes the impacts of amenity migrants—“urban refugees”—on socioeconomic conditions in high‐mountain regions. We define these regions as the “High Sierra,” comprising zones at elevations more than 1,800 meters above sea level. People who migrate to the High Sierra tend to be white and well educated, with considerable household earnings. Unlike the population in the foothills, these migrants are not senior citizens. Their demand for periodic or permanent residences has caused housing prices to increase enormously. As a result, a majority of homes are now priced well beyond the reach of local salaries, which may lead to potential conflict between locals and newcomers. The massive settlement expansion in high‐mountain areas requires a new approach to land‐use planning, one that takes functional regions into account. Therefore, it is expedient to reassess existing jurisdictional boundaries.     

A new look at population change and regional development in Aotearoa New Zealand

In New Zealand, population change is interlinked with regional development. Places growing in population attract regional investment, while regional investment—or lack thereof—can change migration patterns. However, to determine the appropriate response to population change for a community, it is important to understand that population change involves much more than “just” migration. Specifically, it involves interactions between the three components of population change: natural change (births minus deaths), net migration (international and internal) and population ageing (changing cohort size). For example, migration can be negative, but growth can be positive due to underlying natural increase or growth in cohort size. Responses need to differ, depending on these drivers. The goal of this article is to provide new insights into these interactions using data for 275 cities, towns and rural centres (hereafter “urban places”) in New Zealand for the period 1976 to 2013. The results show that natural change has been consistently positive for most urban places up to the present, although projections indicate that in the future this component will become negative across much of the country. At the same time, net migration shows considerable spatial variation, not only in terms of volume, but also direction (negative or positive), which differs markedly by age. A net gain of people of retirement age can offset a net loss of young adults to deliver overall growth, and vice‐versa, but the two have very different implications for longer term growth. An analysis of the drivers of net migration using GIS and machine learning techniques provides an indication of the importance of economic conditions (land‐use and access to markets), lifestyle, access to essential services (hospitals and education) and their interaction with age in regional change. The results show that population age is the best predictor of migration. Younger people are moving to cities for tertiary education and work and older people near or in retirement are moving to smaller lifestyle towns but also want to be close to amenities such as hospitals and international airports. The research also shows that natural lifestyle characteristics (landscape and climate), in combination with age are just as important as economic conditions for understanding migration. Regional development, such as infrastructure that helps business (ports and services) is important for the working age population but not necessarily the retirement age group. When regional development, age/life‐cycle stage and lifestyle come together, such as in Queenstown and Tauranga, net migration gain is high.     

Ways of improving settlement in West Siberia

"[This] paper devoted to the settlement system and the problem of rural population loss in that portion of West Siberia having a significant agricultural base takes issue with some implicit assumptions incorporated within the General Scheme of Settlement within the USSR. More specifically, policies calling for the deliberate, i.e., forced, resettlement of rural population in selected villages in order to provide economies of scale in rural services provision are criticized on two major counts: (1) that such 'enlarged' settlements will still be too small to be allocated the necessary range of functions according to standard city-planning formulae, and (2) that they accelerate rural depopulation by serving as spring-boards for migration to still larger centers."     

Reasons for Returning and Not Returning to Rural U.S. Communities

Population loss persists in nonmetropolitan America, especially in isolated counties with limited natural amenities. Communities in these counties experience high levels of outmigration among high school graduates, but low in-migration is more important in distinguishing declining from growing nonmetropolitan counties, and return migration is a much more prominent component of in-migration to these locationally disadvantaged areas. This research uses a multisited, interview-based methodology to understand the factors that influence decisions of people in their late twenties to late forties to move back to rural communities and the barriers that keep others from making such moves. The life course segment considered here captures a critical “settling down” period when career and family obligations overlap and return migration peaks. Interviews at high school reunions, the only venues where stayers, return migrants, and nonreturn migrants are found together, show that limited rural employment opportunities are barriers for nonreturnees. Others intent on returning find ways to secure or create employment but are primarily influenced to move home by family concerns. Connections to the larger social and physical environment of the community are important as well. Interviews affirm that factors affecting migration decisions work in combination, and ties to both people and place are critical for understanding rural return migration.     

湖南省乡村贫困的影响因素及调控路径研究

贫困是当今世界尖锐的社会问题之一,贫困问题的研究对于改善民生、保障民生和推动贫困地区的社会经济发展具有十分重要的意义。本文以湖南省51个贫困县为例,综合运用熵值法、空间回归分析等方法,从人口结构、居住条件、收入状况与家庭支出4个方面构建贫困测度指标体系,对乡村贫困空间分异特征、影响因素、类型划分、调控路径等进行研究。结果表明：① 湖南省乡村贫困的空间分布呈现出显著的差异性,总体上以轻度贫困和一般贫困为主,比较贫困所占比例较少,比较贫困主要位于武陵山连片特困地区,包括怀化与湘西地区。② 湖南省乡村贫困是区域自然条件和外部社会经济因素相互作用、交互影响的结果,乡村贫困与县均海拔、自然灾害发生面积、农林牧渔业总产值、乡村产业结构及城乡居民收入比呈正相关关系,与农业机械化总动力和人均耕地面积呈负相关关系。③ 基于乡村贫困的测度结果对湖南省51个贫困县进行类型划分,共分为单因素主导型、双因素驱动型、多因素综合型3个大类和P因素主导型、P-E因素驱动型、P-H-E因素综合型等14个小类,并从基础设施建设、文化教育、职业能力培训以及特色产业发展对不同类型贫困县提出相应的脱贫措施。     

Arrest Rates during Natural Resource Development: Drilling,Drinking and Disorderly Conduct in the Marcellus Shale Region

Increased criminal activity has been linked to rapid natural resource development, particularly in rural areas. These “boomtowns” often experience rapid population growth, resulting in “social disruption”. This research examines one component of social disruption, crime, in the context of unconventional energy development in Pennsylvania. We employ quantitative longitudinal methods to examine the association between county-level arrest rates for four types of minor crimes and unconventional natural gas well density in Pennsylvania from 2005 to 2014 controlling for demographic and socioeconomic variables. Results indicate that well density is positively associated with driving under the influence and disorderly conduct arrest rates, but is not associated with arrest rates for drug abuse violations or public drunkenness. Findings suggest the need to look beyond broad categories of criminal activity to particular types of crime related to energy development, and to what extent these indicate broader patterns of social disruption.     

The poverty dynamics in rural China during 2000–2014: A multi-scale analysis based on the poverty gap index

As the largest developing country in the world, China’s rural areas face many poverty- related issues. It is imperative to assess poverty dynamics in a timely and effective manner in China’s rural areas. Therefore, we used the poverty gap index to investigate the poverty dynamics in China’s rural areas during 2000–2014 at the national, contiguous poor areas with particular difficulties and county scales. We found that China made significant achievements in poverty alleviation during 2000–2014. At the national scale, the number of impoverished counties decreased by 1428, a reduction of 97.28%. The rural population in impoverished counties decreased by 493.94 million people or 98.76%. Poverty alleviation was closely associated with economic development, especially with industrial development. Among all 15 socioeconomic indicators, the industrial added value had the highest correlation coefficient with the poverty gap index (r = –0.458, p<0.01). Meanwhile, the inequality of income distribution in the out-of-poverty counties has been aggravated. The urban-rural income gap among the out-of-poverty counties increased by 1.67-fold, and the coefficient of variation in rural per-capita income among the out-of-poverty counties also increased by 9.09%. Thus, we argued that special attention should be paid to reducing income inequality for sustainable development in China’s rural areas.     

基于贫困分级的云南省城乡收入差距时空演化与影响因素研究

云南是中国贫困县最多的山区省份,同时也是中国城乡收入差距长期居高不下的典型省份。针对当前研究中未能深入探讨城乡收入差距与各地贫困程度关联性、未能深入探讨各影响因素空间相关性、忽视关键地理因素对城乡收入差距影响等问题和不足,本文将各县按照贫困程度的差异划分为4个类别,使用云南省129个县（市）2010—2018年产业、社会、经济、人口等维度的面板数据,并引入“地形-气候综合优劣度”作为非经济指标,在分析城乡收入差距时空演化和空间格局特征基础上,运用空间动态面板模型深入探析了其影响因素。基于研究结果,认为有必要将缩小城乡收入差距与国家精准扶贫战略、城乡融合发展战略和乡村振兴战略有效衔接。     

湖南武陵山片区农民收入多样性特征及其对贫困的影响

应用探索性和验证性定量分析方法,测度并探讨了2000~2012年间湖南武陵山片区农民收入多样性的时空演变特征及其对贫困的影响。研究发现,湖南武陵山片区农民收入的多样性程度不高且呈现“先降后升”的趋势,不同县市区间农民收入多样性程度差距不断缩小;多样性程度相似县市区在少数年份呈现出空间集聚而在大多数年份为随机分布;片区内娄邵片区、张家界片区农民收入多样性程度相对较高,怀化片区最低,湘西州片区则提升幅度最大,整体上高多样化县市区向娄邵片区和湘西州片区集中;局部空间格局中高-高（HH）、低-高（LH）类型有较大的空间迁移,而高-低（HL）、低-低（LL）类型在空间上分布相对稳定且大多数年份驻留在怀化片区,湘西州片区内县市区跨空间格局类型变迁最为剧烈;农民收入多样性对增加农民收入、降低贫困有着十分显著的影响。     

Assessing the need for evacuation assistance in the 100 year floodplain of South Florida

The main objective of this study is to assess evacuation assistance need in the 100 year floodplain of South Florida (Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties) by examining select population characteristics of the floodplain inhabitants. Dasymetric mapping is used to redistribute block group level census data to homogeneous inhabited zones of 30 m × 30 m. Because the 100 year floodplain does not correspond to block group boundaries, this data redistribution increases the resolution and accuracy of the floodplain population and their social characteristics. Data on poverty, age, vehicle ownership and mobile housing units are obtained for each 30 m × 30 m zone in the floodplain and is aggregated to the block group level. It is then used to assess evacuation assistance need (based on volume of need as well as concentration of need) for the floodplain in each block group. Results reveal variations in evacuation need across the floodplain. “Age” is the main driver of evacuation need along the coast. “Poverty” is a factor inland, in both urban and rural areas. “Lack of vehicle ownership” contributes to assistance need in coastal and inland urban areas, but not so much in rural areas. “Mobile housing” is a factor in rural areas. Miami-Dade County has higher volume and concentration of poor households lacking vehicular ownership. Palm Beach and Broward counties, on the other hand, have a more dominant presence of elderly and of mobile housing. These results have important implications for local and regional evacuation planning in the event of a 100 year flood.     

基于县域单元的河南农民收入区域分异时空格局

依据河南1995—2009年县域农民人均纯收入统计数据,采用数理统计和地统计分析法对农民收入水平区域差异时空格局演变态势进行深入探讨。研究表明,1995—2009年间河南县域农民人均纯收入水平绝对差异持续增大,而相对差异呈阶段性波动增大态势;县域农民收入水平表现出较强的空间集聚态势,整体上呈以豫中和豫西北县市为中心,以豫北、豫东、豫东南和豫西南地区县市为外缘的核心-边缘型空间格局,西北和东南部县市间差距在拉大,两极分化趋势增强。由此认为,加快提高豫东和豫东南农业县域的农民收入水平是推进全省区域协调发展的关键。     

Business Services,Productivity, and Wages: Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Michigan Counties, 1977–1997

This article investigates the growth of business services (SIC73) in Michigan and models the relationship between the industry and local economic conditions in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties. The research makes four conclusions. First, SIC73 measures explain variance in manufacturing productivity. Second, SIC73 indicators explain variation in manufacturing and overall wages. Third, these relationships vary between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties. Despite growth in rural regions, SIC73 indicators more effectively predict wages and productivity in metropolitan counties. Hence, the localized benefits associated with SIC73 industries are more strongly associated with metropolitan economies. Fourth, the interdependencies that have developed between SIC73 industries and the manufacturing sector decrease over time in both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan contexts. The article concludes with suggestions for future research.     

Business Services,Productivity, and Wages: Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Michigan Counties, 1977–1997

This article investigates the growth of business services (SIC73) in Michigan and models the relationship between the industry and local economic conditions in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties. The research makes four conclusions. First, SIC73 measures explain variance in manufacturing productivity. Second, SIC73 indicators explain variation in manufacturing and overall wages. Third, these relationships vary between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties. Despite growth in rural regions, SIC73 indicators more effectively predict wages and productivity in metropolitan counties. Hence, the localized benefits associated with SIC73 industries are more strongly associated with metropolitan economies. Fourth, the interdependencies that have developed between SIC73 industries and the manufacturing sector decrease over time in both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan contexts. The article concludes with suggestions for future research.     

湖南省武陵山片区人口城镇化与流通产业发展协同演化及其减贫效应研究

运用协同度模型、空间ESDA、趋势面分析和面板计量回归模型,分析湖南省武陵山片区2001—2017年人口城镇化与流通产业发展协同的时空演化特征及其减贫效应。研究发现：湖南省武陵山片区人口城镇化与流通产业协同发展整体呈上升趋势但水平偏低,不同板块间协同水平差异显著且有扩大倾向;具有“集聚–分散–集聚”空间循环过程,局部空间极化效应明显,形成邵阳板块的显著热点区和湘西自治州板块的显著冷点区;协同发展“东高西低”空间分布格局更趋明显,“北高南低”分布态势减弱;两者协同发展对农民收入提升、贫困减缓具有显著正向促进作用,进一步空间效应分解发现协同减贫的空间正外溢性显著;实施人口城镇化与流通产业发展“双轮”协同驱动战略是实现乡村振兴的现实需要,也是落实高质量脱贫方略的重要支撑。     

全面二孩背景下中国省际人口迁移格局预测及城镇化效应

采用第六次中国人口普查数据,基于全面二孩实施背景,预测未来中国与省际城乡人口规模以及省际人口迁移规模;采用2010年人口数据和2020年预测人口数据,从对比视角分析了中国省际人口迁移格局变化及其对城镇化发展的影响。研究发现：① 城乡全面放开二孩政策不会带来区域人口数量的剧烈反弹;② 综合考虑省际人口迁移方向与强度,将中国31个省份划分为4种类型;③ 省际人口迁移促进了城镇化率的提高及省际差异的缩小,对2010~2020年中国城镇化率的增加的贡献占到了30.77%。     

Primacy or Pluralism: Future Directions in Economic Geography

Rates of geographical mobility vary greatly, and fairly predictably, across the life course. Our analysis of special county-to-county migration tabulations of Census 2000 data discloses that, when flows are disaggregated by age, radically different patterns of net population redistribution are taking place upward and downward within the national urban hierarchy. The movements at the late-career, empty-nester, and retirement stage are the most “demographically effective” or unidirectional. The elderly fleeing large metropolitan areas have been congregating in micropolitan and rural counties with special climatic and other natural amenities. The opposite net flow is found for younger adults, who have been flocking into megametropolitan conurbations. At the midcareer stage, the net movement is from larger to medium metropolitan areas. We detail the age articulation of county-to-county migration flows with novel graphical portrayals and statistical measures. We give some thoughts on the relationship between intergenerational dependency and migration trends, and we speculate about whether the current patterns of age-articulated movement up and down the urban hierarchy will continue as the baby boom retires and the echo cohorts come of age.