Development of a hurricane boundary-layer wind model

Summary Hurricanes cause a variety of damage due to high winds, heavy rains, and storm surges. This study focuses on hurricanes’ high winds. The most devastating effects of sustained high winds occur in the first few hours of landfall. During the short period, hurricanes’ rainfall often increases, while the low-level pressure gradients continue to weaken. Latent heating does not appear to strengthen the surface winds. The indicator is that dry mechanisms such as the boundary layer processes and terrain are responsible for the damaging winds in the coastal areas. In this study, the design of a dry hurricane boundary layer wind model is described. The goal is to develop a forecast tool with near-real time applications in expeditious wind damage assessment and disaster mitigation during a hurricane landfall event. Different surface roughness lengths and topographic features ranging from flat land to the mountainous terrain of Taiwan were used in the model simulation experiments to reveal how the coastal environment affected the hurricane surface winds. The model performed quite well in all cases. The experiments suggested that the downward transfer of high momentum aloft played a significant role in the maintenance of high wind speeds at the surface. The surface wind maximums were observed on the lee sides of high terrain. The surface streamline analyses showed that the high mountains tended to block the relatively weak flow and caused small eddies, while they forced the stronger flow to turn around the mountains. Due to great difficulty in data collection, the hurricane boundary layer over land remains one of the least understood parts of the system. The dry model proves to be an effective way to study many aspects of hurricane boundary layer winds over a wide range of terrain features and landfall sites. The model runs efficiently and can be run on a medium-size personal computer. Received March 16, 2001 Revised September 10, 2001     

A study of wind speed modification and internal boundary-layer heights in a coastal region

Wind profile data within the first two kilometres of a coast have been used to study the wind field modification downstream of this surface discontinuity. The land area is generally very flat, having an overall roughness length of 0.04 m. A wind model, suitable for practical applications and inexpensive to run, has been tested against the data and was found to give satisfactory results. Knowing the climatological statistics of wind and stratification, e.g., at the coast, the model may thus be used to estimate, on a climatological basis, how the wind field is modified with distance inland, at least in areas with only minor topography. This type of information is of great importance when locating wind turbines. It is in these cases also important to know the statistics of the internal boundary-layer (IBL) height, as the turbulence intensity may be quite different in and above the IBL, which in turn may influence load and fatigue calculations. Using the wind profile data, the IBL height was clearly discernible in the majority of cases. Having very unstable stratification over land, the IBL height could, however, not be determined from the wind profiles, as the wind in these cases did not decrease inland. This result was also obtained using the wind model. A simple model of the type z _IBL = a · x ^b, was instead tested, and was shown to give reasonable results.     

2005—2020年新疆百里风区精细化逐时风速特征研究

精细化捕捉风速大小及其变化细节过程,是顺利开展风区大风监控预报预警气象服务的关键理论支撑。本文基于百里风区气象观测站的风速数据,对质量控制后的2分钟平均风速、大风日数、日最大风速、日极大风速资料进行计算,给出百里风区2005—2020年精细化逐时风速特征。结果表明：（1）随时间分辨率的提高,24次与4次定时观测值差异明显增大,且偏差随风力等级增高而增大;（2）百里风区风速变化规律与大气环流紧密相关,地形起到加强放大作用。在太阳辐射及地形地貌影响下,百里风区年平均风速8.3 m·s-1,年平均大风日数200.6天,地面风速持续较高;（3）一年中春夏季平均风速最大,且较大风速持续时间长;（4）一日中平均风速高峰时段与大风易发时段不完全重合,平均风速最大值出现在夜间4时前后,大风高发时段峰值集中在17—20时。     

A model for computing small-scale wind variations over a water surface

Based on the primitive equations, a one-level model is described for computing surface winds under the meso-scale influences of orography, friction and heating. The effects of atmospheric stability and land-water contrasts are examined in detail. Results of testing the model with data collected during the International Field Year for the Great Lakes (IFYGL) in 1972 are given. The model is able to simulate land and lake breezes as well as meso-scale effects due to gradients in surface water temperature. Compared to simple methods of computing surface winds, use of the model reduces the vector error in estimates of surface winds by about 1.25 m s^–1 on the average.     

Mesoscale structure of tropical cyclones in the surface wind field

The mesoscale structure of tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific in 2002–2007 at different stages of evolution (from the genesis to the maximum intensity) is studied using the QuikSCAT satellite data and JRA-25 reanalysis data. It is demonstrated that the genesis of the tropical cyclone was preceded by the formation of the stable disturbance that was observed in the vorticity field on the average 47 hours before the first report. The variability is noted of the mesoscale structure of the cyclone during the process of its formation and evolution: the increase in the intensity of mesovortices, the decrease in their number as a result of the merging, the narrowing of the area occupied by them, and localization of this area near the center at the stage of maximum development. It is shown that the relationship between the mean intensity of mesovortices at the initial disturbance and the tropical cyclone intensity is close to linear and has high correlation coefficients.     

A wind tunnel boundary-layer simulation of wind flow over complex terrain: Effect of terrain and model construction

The report presents the results of a wind-tunnel study of the flow of the natural wind over complex terrain. A 1:4000 undistorted scale model of Gebbies Pass in the South Island of New Zealand was prepared and tested in the boundary-layer wind tunnel in the Department of Mechanical Engineering at the University of Canterbury.Three forms of construction, viz., terraced, contoured and roughness-added, were compared. Velocity and turbulence profiles, Reynolds stresses and spectra were measured, and correlation of results between different types of construction was calculated. The terraced form was much simpler to construct but was found to be unsatisfactory. The correlation between the contoured and roughness-added models was as high as 0.94, although the roughness-added model made a significant difference to the results in the lower 20%; of the boundary layer. The results of these tests will be compared with results from the field in a future report.     

A maritime boundary-layer model for the prediction of fog

A two-dimensional boundary-layer model is described. The model is designed to predict and study the effects of meteorological changes on the formation and dissipation of fog and stratus. Radiational heat loss along with the transport of static energy, moisture and momentum are treated. Cloud droplet distributions are parameterized using a gamma distribution from which radiative properties and droplet fall velocities are computed. Turbulent exchange coefficients are calculated using the Monin-Obukhov theory of similitude which accounts for variations in atmospheric stability. Although the boundary-layer depth depends only on turbulent intensity during stable atmospheric conditions, its growth during unstable conditions is determined from the capping inversion's intensity and the amount of turbulence generated at the surface.Several experiments are presented which demonstrate the effects of various meteorological parameters on the formation and duration of stratus and fog. Energy-budget analyses show the importance of each of the physical processes being modeled.Although not new, radiative transfer processes are shown to be extremely important in the transfer of heat from the boundary layer and in the process of fog formation. Fog formation location is highly sensitive to the moisture content upstream, whereas changes in wind speed had much less effect in the variance of fog location.Numerical experiments with other processes such as back radiation from the atmosphere, haze and cloud droplet population, are described and shown to have smaller effects.     

The diurnal wind variation in a variable eddy viscosity semi-geostrophic Ekman boundary-layer model: Analytical study

Summary ?A time-dependent semi-geostrophic Ekman boundary-layer model (SG), including slowly varying eddy diffusivity with height and inertial term effects, is developed to investigate the diurnal wind variation in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). An approximate analytical solution of this model is derived by using the WKB method, which extends the Tan and Farahani (1998)’s solution by including the vertical variable eddy viscosity. The features of the diurnal wind variation in the PBL mainly depend on three factors: the latitude, horizontal momentum advection and eddy viscosity. The vertical variable eddy viscosity has little influence on diurnal wind variation in the PBL at the low latitude, however its effect may be exacerbated in the mid- and high latitudes. In comparing with the constant eddy viscosity case, the decreasing (increasing) with height eddy viscosity produces a large (small) maximum wind speed (MWS) in the PBL, however, the eddy viscosity that has a mid-layer peak in the vertical gives rise to a higher height of occurrence of MWS. For the boundary-layer wind structure, there is a singular point when the modified SG inertial oscillation frequency η equals the forcing frequency ω. The isotachs of boundary-layer wind speed have almost no tilt to left or right relative to time evolution and the occurrence time of the MWS is the earliest at the singular point. The feature will be enhanced in the decreasing with height eddy viscosity case and weakened in the eddy viscosity initially increasing with height case. Received April 6, 2001; accepted December 27, 2001     

Statistical characteristics of instantaneous dense gas clouds released in an atmospheric boundary-layer wind tunnel

Wind tunnel experiments were performed to examine the behavior of suddenly released volumes of dense gas in a turbulent shear layer. Instantaneous concentrations were measured with hot-wire katherometers. Multiple replications of each cloud volume, density, and velocity combination produced statistics for plume arrival time, arrival of maximum concentration time, plume departure time, and maximum concentrations. Probability distributions and standard deviations of each plume property permit prediction of hazard risks.     

Comparison of Surface Wind Stress Anomalies over the Tropical Pacific Simulated by an AGCM and by a Simple Atmospheric Model

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复杂下垫面风电场风速数值模拟及误差特征

利用WRF模式分别对沿海及山地条件下风电场风速进行高分辨数值模拟,并对其误差特征进行分析,结果表明:1)WRF模式对复杂地形条件下的风速模拟性能良好,模拟值较好地体现天气尺度的周期变化;2)沿海及山地条件下模拟与观测的误差特征各不相同。模式静态数据未能显现沿海的小岛,并且低估了山地测风塔所在的海拔,导致沿海平均模拟风速偏大,山地平均模拟风速偏小;3)分析不同风向的归一化均方根误差,沿海陆风情况下,下垫面相对复杂,误差明显增大;沿海海风情况下,下垫面均一,误差明显减小;4)仅作单个风电场周边数百平方千米的模拟,采用一台12核的服务器进行WRF模式的并行计算可满足48 h短期预测的时效性。仅仅提高模拟的网格分辨率,并不一定能提升模拟的准确性。     

A boundary-layer analysis of atmospheric motion over a semi-elliptical surface obstruction

Flow over surface obstructions can produce significantly large wind shears such that adverse flying conditions can occur for aeronautical systems (helicopters, V/STOL vehicles, etc.). The purpose of this analysis is to determine the kinds of flow fields that can result from surface obstructions in an otherwise horizontally homogeneous statistically stationary flow. The technique is based on the boundary-layer/Boussinesq-approximated equations of motion. The pressure gradient resulting from the surface obstruction is that consistent with a potential flow over a two-dimensional cylinder with elliptical cross-section, an approach commonly used for boundary-layer analyses in the engineering community. The dissipative effects of atmospheric turbulence on the mean flow are represented with eddy-viscosity models of the Reynolds stresses. The upstream flow is a neutral one and is characterized by a logarithmic profile for the mean wind. The following conclusions result from the analysis: (1) localized maxima in wind speed occur at the top of a surface obstruction, which are expected in physically real flow situations, (2) an increase in the elliptical aspect ratio decreases the wind speed within the boundary layer at the top of the ellipse and returns it to the logarithmic distribution characteristic of undisturbed flow, (3) increases in surface roughness affect the flow by decreasing the velocity in the boundary layer, with the most pronounced effect occurring near the surface of the smaller aspect-ratio ellipse, (4) Reynolds number has a negligible effect on the overall flow for the range of Reynolds numbers considered in this study, (5) a decrease in the elliptical aspect ratio and an increase in the surface roughness cause larger separation regions.     

Effects of tropical instability wave (TIW)-induced surface wind feedback in the tropical Pacific Ocean

Tropical instability waves (TIWs) arise from oceanic instability in the eastern tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, having a clear atmospheric signature that results in coupled atmosphere–ocean interactions at TIW scales. In this study, the extent to which TIW-induced surface wind feedback influences the ocean is examined using an ocean general circulation model (OGCM). The TIW-induced wind stress (τ_TIW) part is diagnostically determined using an empirical τ_TIW model from sea surface temperature (SST) fields simulated in the OGCM. The interactively represented TIW wind tends to reduce TIW activity in the ocean and influence the mean state, with largest impacts during TIW active periods in fall and winter. In December, the interactive τ_TIW forcing induces a surface cooling (an order of ?0.1 to ?0.3 °C), an increased heat flux into the ocean, a shallower mixed layer and a weakening of the South Equatorial Current in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Additionally, the TIW wind effect yields a pronounced latitudinal asymmetry of sea level field across the equator, and a change to upper thermal structure, characterized by a surface cooling and a warming below in the thermocline, leading to a decreased temperature gradient between the mixed layer and the thermocline. Processes responsible for the τ_TIW–induced cooling effects are analyzed. Vertical mixing and meridional advection are the two terms in the SST budget that are dominantly affected by the TIW wind feedback: the cooling effect from the vertical mixing on SST is enhanced, with the maximum induced cooling in winter; the warming effect from the meridional advection is reduced in July–October, but enhanced in November–December. Additional experiments are performed to separate the relative roles the affected surface momentum and heat fluxes play in the cooling effect on SST. This ocean-only modeling work indicates that the effect of TIW-induced wind feedback is small but not negligible, and may need to be adequately taken into account in large-scale climate modeling.     

Weather yield model for the semi tropical region (Pakistan)

Weather models are essential tools for checking of the effect of the weather elements in terms of their effect on the production of the crop. This research is an attempt to see the effect of only two variables i.e., temperature and rainfall for the division Faisalabad (semitropical region of Pakistan).The model fitted is of the linear form:the values of a,b, c have been found. The expected yield has been calculated by using the aridity indices (X1 and X2 ) and the result in the form of coefficient of determination R2 has been found equal to 0.166. The significance of the regression coefficient has been tested, which shows that the contribution to the yield from aridity index at germination and that at ripening is significant.The wheat yields are the results of a wide variety of variables, most of which show varying degree of relationship with one another, some positive and some negative in terms of output. These variables may be technology, fertilizers, pesticides, epidemics, kinds of seeds used, market price of crop and the area under cultivation etc, which can be the source of variation in the wheat yield. Since rainfall during germination and temperature at the ripening periods are the necessary factors for the yield of wheat, for this purpose these parameters have been studied in order to their contribution.     

On characteristics of wind direction fluctuations in the surface layer

It is shown that the ratio of standard deviation of lateral velocity to the friction velocity, /u _*, and therefore wind direction fluctuations, are sensitive to mesoscale terrain properties. Under neutral conditions, /u _* is almost 40% larger in rolling terrain than over a horizontal surface. In the lee of a low mountain, the fluctuations may be 2.5 times as strong as over horizontal terrain. In contrast, vertical velocity fluctuations are little influenced by mesoscale terrain features.Now with Air Weather Service, Offutt AFB, Omaha, Nebraska.     

A subgrid-scale model for large-eddy simulation of planetary boundary-layer flows

A long-standing problem in large-eddy simulations (LES) of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is that the mean wind and temperature profiles differ from the Monin-Obukhov similarity forms in the surface layer. This shortcoming of LES has been attributed to poor grid resolution and inadequate sub-grid-scale (SGS) modeling. We study this deficiency in PBL LES solutions calculated over a range of shear and buoyancy forcing conditions. The discrepancy from similarity forms becomes larger with increasing shear and smaller buoyancy forcing, and persists even with substantial horizontal grid refinement. With strong buoyancy forcing, however, the error is negligible.In order to achieve better agreement between LES and similarity forms in the surface layer, a two-part SGS eddy-viscosity model is proposed. The model preserves the usual SGS turbulent kinetic energy formulation for the SGS eddy viscosity, but it explicitly includes a contribution from the mean flow and a reduction of the contributions from the turbulent fluctuations near the surface. Solutions with the new model yield increased fluctuation amplitudes near the surface and better correspondence with similarity forms out to a distance of 0.1–0.2 times the PBL depth, i.e., a typical surface-layer depth. These results are also found to be independent of grid anisotropy. The new model is simple to implement and computationally inexpensive.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

区域地面天气图上华北飑线的特征及其临近预报

应用1970—1980年常规资料及逐时区域加密的观测资料,分析了百余次飑线过程,并对发展完整的十个飑线过程做了逐时诊断分析。分析了华北飑线的中尺度气候特征和不同天气型的环境条件;给出了飑线各发展阶段的地面中尺度概念模型;还讨论了应用逐时地面加密资料制做飑线临近预报的基本思路。