Holocene sea-level changes and glacio-isostasy in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea

Shoreline displacement in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland during the past 9000 radiocarbon years was reconstructed by studying a total of 10 isolated lake and mire basins located in Virolahti in southeastern Finland and on the Karelian Isthmus, and in Ingermanland in Russia. Study methods were diatom analyses, sediment lithostratigraphical interpretation and radiocarbon dating. In southeastern Finland, the marine (Litorina) transgression maximum occurred ca. 6500–6200 ¹⁴C yr BP (7400–7100 cal. yr BP). In areas of the slower land uplift rate on the Karelian Isthmus and in Ingermanland, the transgression maximum occurred ca. 6400–6000 ¹⁴C yr BP (7300–6800 cal. yr BP). The highest Litorina shoreline is located at ca. 23 m above present sea-level in southeastern Finland, whereas in the eastern part of the Karelian Isthmus, near St. Petersburg, it is located at ca. 8 m above present sea-level. The amplitude of the Litorina transgression in Virolahti area is ca. 4 m, whereas on the Karelian Isthmus and in Ingermanland the amplitude has varied between 5 and 7 m. The regional differences between areas are solely due to different glacio-isostatic land uplift rates. The seven basins studied in this research were connected to the Baltic Sea basin during the Litorina Sea stage and their diatom and lithostratigraphical records indicate a single, smooth Litorina transgression.     

Evaluation of present-day rainfall simulations over West Africa in CORDEX regional climate models

The objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of seven CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs), driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset to simulate the observed rainfall characteristics over West Africa during the period of 1990–2008. The seasonal climatology, annual rainfall cycles, interannual variability, 850 hPa specific humidity, and wind fields of the RCMs outputs were assessed over a number of spatial scales covering three climatically homogenous subregions (Guinea Coast, Savannah, and Sahel) and the entire West Africa domain. The ability of the RCMs to simulate the response to El Nino and La Nina events were further assessed. Results indicate that the RCMs captured the spatial pattern of rainfall and the three distinctive phases of the West African monsoon reasonably. It is worth noting that RCA and CRCM5 failed to distinctively reproduce the monsoon jump while CCLM, HIRHAM, and REMO largely overestimated the amount of the pre- and the post-monsoon rainfall. The analysis also showed significant biases in individual models depending on the subregion and season under consideration. These biases appear to be linked to the model’s failure to resolve convective processes and topography accurately. The majority of the RCMs used were consistent with the ground observation in capturing the dry (wet) conditions associated with the El Nino (La Nina) events. Statistical analysis conclusively revealed that the RCMs performance varies over the subregions and seasons, implying that no single model is best at all time. In general, REGCM3 was found to be the most outstanding of all the RCMs and is therefore recommended for use in rainfall assessment over West Africa.     

Flandrian sea-level changes in the Fenland. II: Tendencies of sea-level movement,altitudinal changes,and local and regional factors

Stratigraphic, micropalaeontologic and radiocarbon data show that since c. 6500 BP the Fenland has been influenced by 7 periods of positive sea-level tendencies and by 6 periods of negative sea-level tendencies. Despite the numerous problems associated with the reconstruction of past altitudes of sea level the periods of positive sea-level tendencies were clearly characterised by a rise in sea level, the development of transgressive overlaps and a landward movement of the coastline. The periods of negative sea-level tendencies were characterised by the development of regressive overlaps, a seaward movement of the coastline and a reduced or negative rate of sea-level rise. The various altitudinal errors do not permit the incontrovertible distinction of periods of falling sea levels. All changes within the Fenland were not synchronous and local factors influenced the exact nature of each sea-level indicator. Dominant regional and local factors have been identified for different areas and different time periods. The chronological and spatial characteristics of the sequences within the Fenland are best explained by a palaeocoastline without supratidal barriers controlling sedimentation. The data indicate an average crustal subsidence in the Fenland of 0.9m/1000 years since c. 6500 BP and the pattern of positive and negative tendencies of sea-level movement is also seen in the chronologies for north west England and north east Scotland.     

Intensification of future heat waves in Pakistan: a study using CORDEX regional climate models ensemble

Future trends in the occurrence of heat waves (HW) over Pakistan have been presented using three regional climate models (RCMs), forced by three different global climate models (GCMs) runs under RCP8.5 scenarios. The results of RCMs are obtained from CORDEX (Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment) database. Two different approaches for the assessment of HWs are defined, namely Fixed and Relative approaches. Fixed approach is defined for a life-threatening extreme event in which the temperature can reach more than 45 °C for a continuous stretch of several days; however, Relative approach events may not be directly life-threatening, but may cause snow/ice melt flooding and impact on food security of the country in summer and winter seasons, respectively. The results indicate a consistent increase in the occurrence of HWs for both approaches. For the Fixed approach, the increase is evident in the eastern areas of Pakistan, particularly plains of Punjab and Sindh provinces which host many big cities of the country. It is argued that the effect of HWs may also be exacerbated in future due to urban heat island effect. Moreover, summer time HWs for Relative approach is most likely to increase over northern areas of the country which hosts reservoirs of snow and glacier, which may result in events like glacial lake outburst flood and snow/ice melt flooding. Furthermore, the increase in winter time HWs for Relative approach may affect negatively on the wheat production, which in turn can distress the overall food productivity and livelihoods of the country. It is concluded that this study may be a useful document for future planning in order to better adapt to these threats due to climate change.     

Late holocene climate changes in the Sea of Azov region

The results of paleoclimatic reconstructions made with the help of the information-statistical method developed by V.A. Klimanov based on palynological data from the Sea of Azov bottom sediments. For the period of the last 3000 years, four phases of warm and dry climates and three phases of relatively cool and humid climates were identified. The latter phases were characterized by wider expansion of tree vegetation in the region around the Sea of Azov. The range of mean annual temperatures between warmer and cooler intervals was about 4°C.     

A Comparison of Greenland Ice and Baltic Sea Sediment Record—A Contribution to Climate Change Analysis

Modern methods on the Theory of Dynamical Systems, time series analysis and multidimensional statistics allow us to extract crucial information about behavior of dynamical systems from observed natural records. We applied some of these methods to two geo-climatic records from Greenland ice and Baltic Sea sediments. Decomposed and noise-free signals demonstrate the presence of ‘global’ components with concordant periodicities of about 900, 500 and 400 years in both records. Both signals correspond to complex periodical (non-chaotic) behavior. The main governing processes belong to the class of dynamical systems with weak dissipation of energy. The observed climate variability gives us an option for the correct stochastic prediction which would be impossible in the case of chaotic behavior of a climatic system.     

Neotectonics, sea-level changes and biological evolution in the Fennoscandian Border Zone of the southern Kattegat Sea

Shallow seismic data and vibrocore information, sequence stratigraphic and faunal evidence have been used for documentation of Late Weichselian reactivation of faulting in the south central Kattegat, southern Scandinavia. The study area is situated on the Fennoscandian Border Zone, where tectonic activity has been recurrent since Early Palaeozoic time and still occurs, as shown by present earthquake activity. New data from the area south of the island of Anholt show that after deglaciation fast isostatic rebound resulted in reactivation of a NW-SE striking normal fault system. This tectonic episode is dated to a period starting shortly before 15.0 cal. ka BP and ending around 13.5 cal. ka BP, after regression had already reached a level of about 30 m b.s.l. The vertical displacement associated with the faulting was in the order of 20 m. More generally, the results support the previously reported late Weichselian sea-level highstand, which was followed by forced regression until the eustatic sea-level rise surpassed the rate of glacio-isostatic rebound in early Preboreal. Our findings further imply that drainage of the Baltic Ice Lake through the Øresund at c. 15 cal. ka BP (Bergsten & Nordberg 1992) may have been triggered by tectonic activity in this region.     

Sedimentology of middle ordovician carbonates in the Argentine precordillera: evidence of regional relative sea-level changes

The Las Aguaditas Formation in the Argentine Precordillera of San Juan is the only Ordovician carbonate sequence deposited on a slope. Spiculites, mudstones and calcisiltites represent the autochthonous sediments, characterized by a fine lamination, rare fossils and their dark colour. The pelagic fauna consists of rare radiolarians/calcispheres, trinucleid trilobites, graptolites and conodonts. The latter are typical of an open marine environment and proved a Llanvirn—Llandeilo age for the Las Aguaditas Formation.In the upper part of the succession there are several intercalations of megabreccias. Their thickness decreases from about 20 to 4 m towards the top of the formation, accompanied by an increasing amount of carbonate turbidites. The clasts of the breccias are derived from the slope as well as the platform. Each of the megabreccia horizons represents a system of channels, lobes and interchannel deposits, which together form a slope apron. On top of the lower breccia a small biostrome developed, where bryozoans and crinoids are preserved in an autochthonous position.Sedimentation of the Las Aguaditas Formation started with the drowning of the underlying carbonate platform (San Juan limestones). Near the Arenig-Llanvirn boundary, a rapid ecstatic sea-level rise led to the deposition of graptolitic black shales and mudstones. Upwards, allochthonous carbonates become increasingly abundant. The onset of megabreccia deposition coincides with a major relative sea-level fall, caused by block movements in connection with rifting. The subsequent transition from breccia formation towards turbiditic sedimentation corresponds to an environmental shift from the slope towards the toe of slope and basin and marks a renewed moderate sea-level rise. Correspondence to: M. Keller     

应用统计降尺度方法预估江淮流域未来降水

统计降尺度方法广泛应用于弥补大气环流模式(GCM)模拟区域气候变化能力较弱的不足。利用1960~2009年的NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和江淮流域52个站点降水观测资料,通过敏感性分析,针对4个季节分别选择10个大尺度预测因子,采用主成分分析(PCA)和支持向量机(SVM)相结合的方法,建立了江淮流域降水统计降尺度模型。检验结果表明,该模型获取的江淮流域降水的偏差显著减小,能够描述降水在月、年尺度的变化,适用于HadCM3输出的大尺度气候场,具有预测未来降水变化的能力。将统计降尺度模型应用于HadCM3在A2情景下输出的2020~2099年大尺度预测因子,分3个时段:2020~2039年,2050~2069年和2080~2099年,从年和季节两个时间尺度分析江淮流域未来降水变化。结果表明,相对1960~1999年,未来3个时段的降水有小幅增加,其中2080~2099年增幅最大,为3.6 mm;在未来3个时段的不同季节,降水变化呈现出不同特征。     

Flandrian sea-level changes in the Fenland. I: The geographical setting and evidence of relative sea-level changes

The Flandrian sediments of the Fenland record the infilling of the Wash embayment on the east coast of England, UK. Since at least 6500 BP changes in sea level have been a major control on the rate and pattern of sediment accumulation. New data are presented from the area which together with published information allow the reconstruction of palaeoenvironments from 6500 to 2500 BP. The major environmental changes involved alternations between freshwater fen and intertidal marine sedimentation. Each episode was characterised by transitional changes as vegetation and sediment zones shifted over large areas. Marine/brackish sediments are found up to 45 km inland of the present coast. Radiocarbon dated sea-level index points, with relevant stratigraphic and micropalaeontological data, ranging from 6415 BP at ?8.17m OD to 2595 BP at +1.45m OD, are described.     

Past occurrences of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea and the role of climate variability,environmental change and human impact

The hypoxic zone in the Baltic Sea has increased in area about four times since 1960 and widespread oxygen deficiency has severely reduced macro benthic communities below the halocline in the Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Finland, which in turn has affected food chain dynamics, fish habitats and fisheries in the entire Baltic Sea. The cause of increased hypoxia is believed to be enhanced eutrophication through increased anthropogenic input of nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus. However, the spatial variability of hypoxia on long time-scales is poorly known: and so are the driving mechanisms. We review the occurrence of hypoxia in modern time (last c. 50 years), modern historical time (AD 1950–1800) and during the more distant past (the last c. 10 000 years) and explore the role of climate variability, environmental change and human impact. We present a compilation of proxy records of hypoxia (laminated sediments) based on long sediment cores from the Baltic Sea. The cumulated results show that the deeper depressions of the Baltic Sea have experienced intermittent hypoxia during most of the Holocene and that regular laminations started to form c. 8500–7800 cal. yr BP ago, in association with the formation of a permanent halocline at the transition between the Early Littorina Sea and the Littorina Sea s. str. Laminated sediments were deposited during three main periods (i.e. between c. 8000–4000, 2000–800 cal. yr BP and subsequent to AD 1800) which overlap the Holocene Thermal Maximum (c. 9000–5000 cal. yr BP), the Medieval Warm Period (c. AD 750–1200) and the modern historical period (AD 1800 to present) and coincide with intervals of high surface salinity (at least during the Littorina s. str.) and high total organic carbon content. This study implies that there may be a correlation between climate variability in the past and the state of the marine environment, where milder and dryer periods with less freshwater run-off correspond to increased salinities and higher accumulation of organic carbon resulting in amplified hypoxia and enlarged distribution of laminated sediments. We suggest that hydrology changes in the drainage area on long time-scales have, as well as the inflow of saltier North Sea waters, controlled the deep oxic conditions in the Baltic Sea and that such changes have followed the general Holocene climate development in Northwest Europe. Increased hypoxia during the Medieval Warm Period also correlates with large-scale changes in land use that occurred in much of the Baltic Sea watershed during the early-medieval expansion. We suggest that hypoxia during this period in the Baltic Sea was not only caused by climate, but increased human impact was most likely an additional trigger. Large areas of the Baltic Sea have experienced intermittent hypoxic from at least AD 1900 with laminated sediments present in the Gotland Basin in the Baltic Proper since then and up to present time. This period coincides with the industrial revolution in Northwestern Europe which started around AD 1850, when population grew, cutting of drainage ditches intensified, and agricultural and forest industry expanded extensively.     

Development and carbon sequestration of tropical peat domes in south-east Asia: links to post-glacial sea-level changes and Holocene climate variability

Tropical peatlands of SE-Asia represent a significant terrestrial carbon reservoir of an estimated 65 Gt C. In this paper we present a comprehensive data synthesis of radiocarbon dated peat profiles and 31 basal dates of ombrogenous peat domes from the lowlands of Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Borneo and integrate our peatland data with records of past sea-level and climate change in the region. Based on their developmental features three peat dome regions were distinguished: inland Central Kalimantan (Borneo), Kutai basin (Borneo) and coastal areas across the entire region. With the onset of the Holocene the first peat domes developed in Central Kalimantan as a response to rapid post-glacial sea-level rise over the Sunda Shelf and intensification of the Asian monsoon. Peat accumulation rates in Central Kalimantan strongly declined after 8500 cal BP in close relation to the lowering rate of the sea-level rise and possibly influenced by the regional impact of the 8.2 ka event. Peat growth in Central Kalimantan apparently ceased during the Late Holocene in association with amplified El Niño activity as exemplified by several truncated peat profiles. Peat domes from the Kutai basin are all younger than ～8300 cal BP. Peat formation and rates of peat accumulation were driven by accretion rates of the Mahakam River and seemingly independent of climate. Most coastal peat domes, the largest expanse of SE-Asian peatlands, initiated between 7000 and 4000 cal BP as a consequence of a Holocene maximum in regional rainfall and the stabilisation and subsequent regression of the sea-level. These boundary conditions induced the highest rates of peat accumulation of coastal peat domes. The Late Holocene sea-level regression led to extensive new land availability that allowed for continued coastal peat dome formation until the present. The time weighted mean Holocene peat accumulation rate is 0.54 mm yr^?1 for Central Kalimantan, 1.89 mm yr^?1 for Kutai and 1.77 mm yr^?1 for coastal domes of Sumatra and Borneo. The mean Holocene carbon sequestration rates amount to 31.3 g C m^?2 yr^?1 for Central Kalimantan and 77.0 g C m^?2 yr^?1 for coastal sites, which makes coastal peat domes of south-east Asia the spatially most efficient terrestrial ecosystem in terms of long term carbon sequestration.     

Utilizing synoptic climatological methods to assess the impacts of climate change on future tornado-favorable environments

Previous research into the impacts of climate change on severe mid-latitude weather has been limited by the spatial resolution of many important variables in global climate model output. By utilizing synoptic climatological methods, however, this research takes an entirely different approach. Using a six-step process that includes principal components analysis, cluster analysis, and discriminant function analysis, this study first creates a continental-scale map pattern classification at three levels of the atmosphere, from geopotential height and temperature fields. These patterns are then associated to historic F2 and stronger United States?? tornado days using binary logistic regression. Using output data from two GCMs, spanning five different model emissions scenarios, this synoptic climatology of tornadoes is then utilized in order to project the changes in the frequency and seasonality of tornadic environments due to a changing climate. Results indicate that F2 and stronger US tornado days will increase anywhere from 3.8 to 12.7% by the 2090s. The majority of this increase is likely to be manifested in the earlier part of the tornado season. In addition to the shift in seasonality, a broadening of the peak tornado season is also noticed under some scenarios. Geographically, portions of the Northern and Central Plains, the High Plains, the Lower Great Lakes, the Mid-Atlantic States, and the Southeast are projected to experience an increase in tornado days under some future scenarios. The Upper Great Lakes states and the Southern Plains are projected to experience a decrease in tornado days.     

A dinoflagellate cyst record of Holocene climate and hydrological changes along the southeastern Swedish Baltic coast

A high-resolution, well-dated dinoflagellate cyst record from a lagoon of the southeastern Swedish Baltic Sea reveals climate and hydrological changes during the Holocene. Marine dinoflagellate cysts occurred initially at about 8600 cal yr BP, indicating the onset of the Littorina transgression in the southeastern Swedish lowland associated with global sea level rise, and thus the opening of the Danish straits. Both the species diversity and the total accumulation rates of dinoflagellate cysts continued to increase by 7000 cal yr BP and then decreased progressively. This pattern reveals the first-order change in local sea level as a function of ice-volume-equivalent sea level rise versus isostatic land uplift. Superimposed upon this local sea level trend, well-defined fluctuations of the total accumulation rates of dinoflagellate cysts occurred on quasi-1000- and 500-yr frequency bands particularly between 7500 and 4000 cal yr BP, when the connection between the Baltic basin and the North Atlantic was broader. A close correlation of the total accumulation rates of dinoflagellate cysts with GISP2 ice core sea-salt ions suggests that fluctuations of Baltic surface conditions during the middle Holocene might have been regulated by quasi-periodic variations of the prevailing southwesterly winds, most likely through a system similar to the dipole oscillation of the modern North Atlantic atmosphere.     

渤海湾西岸CZ01钻孔沉积物粒度端元分析及其气候—海平面变化响应*

沧州地区位于海陆交互的渤海湾西岸,易受到海平面变化和极端气候事件的影响,对于全球气候变化的响应十分敏感。应用非参数化端元分析模型将沧州地区CZ01钻孔中更新世晚期以来的沉积物粒度划分出6个端元并分析其物源,结合已有地质记录,揭示不同时间尺度下各端元对气候—海平面变化的响应。结果表明: (1)EM1(5.01 μm)主要为远源的风尘输入,EM2(13.18 μm)和EM3(39.81 μm)为古黄河所携带的沉积物,EM4(69.18 μm)和EM5(138.04 μm)为海相沉积物,EM6(275.42 μm)可能指示古洪水等极端气候事件。(2)深海氧同位素(MIS)Ⅰ 阶段,气候温暖湿润,EM4+5含量指示渤海海平面整体呈波动上升的趋势并逐渐接近现代海平面。该阶段内由于11.5 ka BP左右的新仙女木事件以及5.1 ka BP左右冷干事件的发生,渤海海平面在稳定上升状态后出现停滞或小幅下降的现象; 而在9.5 ka BP、7.5 ka BP、5.8 ka BP和1.7 ka BP左右,东亚夏季风增强导致降水增加,渤海海平面升高。(3)MIS Ⅵ 阶段北半球气候冷干,150~132 ka BP左右因喜马拉雅运动减弱造成的区域沉降中心转移致使渤海海面升高。MIS Ⅴ 阶段气候波动剧烈: 在间冰期暖期(5a、5c和5e)气候暖湿,渤海海平面上升; 而MIS5b和5d时期渤海海面高度较低。MIS Ⅳ 阶段较MIS5a末期海平面突然下降后趋于稳定,期间出现若干次小规模海侵事件,可能与东亚夏季风频繁变化有关。MIS Ⅲ 阶段至末次冰盛期海平面大幅度下降且存在周期性升降变化,并在46 ka BP左右出现大规模海侵事件。MIS Ⅱ 阶段较MIS Ⅲ 阶段海平面出现小幅度下降,为低海平面时期; 伴随15 ka BP左右冰盛期的结束,东亚夏季风增强,海平面开始上升。渤海海平面180 ka BP以来的变化记录与北半球乃至全球范围内的地质记录存在一致性,与太阳辐射波动引起的冰川消融及东亚夏季风变化密切相关。     

A critical review and re-investigation of the Pleistocene deposits between Cranfield Point and Kilkeel,Northern Ireland: Implications for regional sea-level models and glacial reconstructions of the northern Irish Sea basin

The coastline of County Down includes sites that are pivotal to understanding the history of the last glaciation of the northern Irish Sea Basin in relation to relative sea level and regional glacial readvances. The cliff sections display evidence that has been used to underpin controversial models of glaciomarine sedimentation in isostatically-depressed basins followed by emergent marine and littoral environments. They also provide crucial evidence claimed to constrain millennial-scale ice sheet oscillations associated with uniquely large and rapid sea-level fluctuations. This paper reviews previous work and reports new findings that generally supports the ‘terrestrial’ model of glaciation, involving subglacial accretion and deformation of sediment beneath grounded ice. Deep troughs were incised into the till sheet during a post Late Glacial Maximum draw-down of ice into the Irish Sea Basin. Ice retreat was accompanied by glaciomarine accretion of mud in the troughs during a period of high relative sea level. The trough-fills were over-ridden, compacted, deformed and truncated during a glacial re-advance that is correlated with the Clogher Head Readvance. Grounding-line retreat accompanied by rapid subaqueous ice-proximal sedimentation preserved a widespread subglacial stone pavement. Raised beach gravels cap the sequence. The evidence supports an uninterrupted fall in relative sea level from c. 30?m that is consistent with sea level curves predicted by current glacio-isostatic adjustment modelling. Critical evidence previously cited in support of subaerial dissection of the troughs, and hence rapid fall and rise in relative sea level prior to the deposition of the glaciomarine muds, is not justified.     

Evidence of the final drainage of the Baltic Ice Lake and the brackish phase of the Yoldia Sea in glacial varves from the Baltic Sea

A clay-varve chronology based on 14 cross-correlated varve graphs from the Baltic Sea and a mean varve thickness curve has been constructed. This chronology is correlated with the Swedish Time Scale and covers the time span 11530 to 10250 varve years BP. Two cores have been analysed for grain size, chemistry, content of diatoms and changes in colour by digital colour analysis. The final drainage of the Baltic Ice Lake is dated to c . 10800 varve years BP and registered in the cores analysed as a decrease in the content of clay. This event can be correlated with atmospheric Δ14 C content and might have resulted in an increase in these values recorded between 11565 and 11545 years BP. The results of the correlation between the varve chronology from the Baltic Sea, the Greenland GRIP ice core and the atmospheric Δ14 C record indicate that c . 760 years are missing in the Swedish Time Scale in the part younger than c. 10250 varve years BP. A change in colour from a brownish to grey varved glacial clay recorded c . 10770 varve years BP is found to be the result of oxygen deficiency due to an increase in the rate of sedimentation in the early Preboreal. The first brackish influence is recorded c . 10540 varve years BP in the northwestern Baltic Sea and some 90 years later in the eastern Gotland Basin.