南极和北极地区变化对全球气候变化的指示和调控作用——第四次IPCC评估报告以来一些新认知

政府间国际气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）2007年发布了第4次评估报告后,全球气候变化问题再次成为国际社会、科技界和社会公众关注的焦点之一,并迅速成为了一个重要的国际科学和政治议题。 2007年以来,尤其是第4次国际极地年的实施,越来越多的观测和研究事实表明,北极和南极地区正在出现快速地变化着,这些变化也正在从量上到质量变化,当在跨越这种变化的阈门时,可能出现：北冰洋会在2040年前后出现夏季无海冰所引起的北半球大范围的持续暴雪的寒冷冬季;2050年左右南极上空臭氧空洞可能消失并恢复到上世纪80年代水平,南极地区可能会快速升温并引起东南极冰盖和海冰快速融化,使海平面升高加速;极区海水温度快速升高会驱动极区表层海洋和上覆大气之间CO2分压平衡加速,极区海洋也会大量吸收大气CO2,并诱发海水酸化及对极区生态系统产生不可逆的破坏。因此,南极和北极地区的快速变化,正在扮演对全球气候变化的指示和调控作用。     

Reconstruction of the Ross Ice Drainage System, Antarctica, at the Last Glacial Maximum

We present here a revised reconstruction of the Ross ice drainage system of Antarctica at the last glacial maximum (LGM) based on a recent convergence of terrestrial and marine data. The Ross drainage system includes all ice flowlines that enter the marine Ross Embayment. Today, it encompasses one-fourth of the ice-sheet surface, extending far inland into both East and West Antarctica. Grounding lines now situated in the inner Ross Embayment advanced seaward at the LGM (radiocarbon chronology in Denton and Marchant 2000 and in Hall and Denton 2000a, b), resulting in a thick grounded ice sheet across the Ross continental shelf. In response to this grounding in the Ross (and Weddell) Embayment, ice-surface elevations of the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet were somewhat higher at the LGM than at present (Steig and White 1997; Borns et al. 1998; Ackert et al. 1999). At the same time, surface elevations of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet inland of the Transantarctic Mountains were slightly lower than now, except near outlet glaciers that were dammed by grounded ice in the Ross Embayment. The probable reason for this contrasting behavior is that lowered global sea level at the LGM, from growth of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, caused widespread grounding of the marine portion of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, whereas decreased LGM accumulation led to slight surface lowering of the interior terrestrial ice sheet in East Antarctica. Rising sea level after the LGM tripped grounding-line recession in the Ross Embayment, which has probably continued to the present day (Conway et al. 1999). Hence, gravitational collapse of the grounded ice sheet from the Ross Embayment, accompanied by lowering of the interior West Antarctic ice surface and of outlet glaciers in the Transantarctic Mountains, occurred largely during the Holocene. At the same time, increased Holocene accumulation caused a slight rise of the inland East Antarctic ice surface.     

A 36 Ky record of iceberg rafting and sedimentation from north-west Iceland

Evidence from north-west Iceland's shelf and fjords is used to develop a scenario for environmental change during the last 36 cal Ky. The retreat history of the Iceland Ice Cap during the last deglaciation is delineated through lithofacies studies, carbon analyses and magnetic susceptibility, and studies of ice-rafted debris (IRD) in sediment cores. Sedimentological data from lake Efstadalsvatn, Vestfirdir peninsula, trace the glacier retreat on land. In two of the high resolution shelf cores we detect near continuous IRD accumulation from 36 to 11 cal Kya. However, IRD is absent in the cores from ca. 22 to 19 cal Kya, possibly indicating more extensive landfast sea ice conditions. All cores show intensified IRD during the Younger Dryas chronozone; the fjord cores show a continuous IRD record until 10 cal Kya. Magnetic susceptibility and carbon analyses from Efstadalsvatn reveal the disappearance of local ice in the basin just before 10.5 cal Kya. No IRD was detected in the sediment cores during 10 to Ø4 cal Kya. Some indication of cooling occurs between 4 and 3 cal Kya, with a fresh input of IRD in fjord cores after 1 cal Kya.     

Mountain-derived versus shelf-based glaciations on the western Taymyr Peninsula, Siberia

The early Russian researchers working in central Siberia seem to have preferred scenarios in which glaciations, in accordance with the classical glaciological concept, originated in the mountains. However, during the last 30 years or so the interest in the glacial history of the region has concentrated on ice sheets spreading from the Kara Sea shelf. There, they could have originated from ice caps formed on areas that, for eustatic reasons, became dry land during global glacial maximum periods, or from grounded ice shelves. Such ice sheets have been shown to repeatedly inundate much of the Taymyr Peninsula from the north-west. However, work on westernmost Taymyr has now also documented glaciations coming from inland. On at least two occasions, with the latest one dated to the Saale glaciation (marine isotope stage 6 [MIS 6]), warm-based, bedrock-sculpturing glaciers originating in the Byrranga Mountains, and in the hills west of the range, expanded westwards, and at least once did such glaciers, after moving 50–60 km or more over the present land areas, cross today's Kara Sea coastline. The last major glaciation affecting south-western Taymyr did, however, come from the Kara Sea shelf. According to optically stimulated luminescence dates, this was during the Early or Middle Weichselian (MIS 5 or 4), and was most probably not later than 70 Kya. South-western Taymyr was not extensively glaciated during the last global glacial maximum ca. 20 Kya, although local cold-based ice caps may have existed.     

Glacial history of the Antarctic Peninsula since the Last Glacial Maximum–a synthesis

The extent of ice, thickness and dynamics of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice sheets in the Antarctic Peninsula region, as well as the pattern of subsequent deglaciation and climate development, are not well constrained in time and space. During the LGM, ice thickened considerably and expanded towards the middle–outer submarine shelves around the Antarctic Peninsula. Deglaciation was slow, occurring mainly between >14 Ky BP (¹⁴C kilo years before present) and ca. 6 Ky BP, when interglacial climate was established in the region. After a climate optimum, peaking ca. 4 - 3 Ky BP, a cooling trend started, with expanding glaciers and ice shelves. Rapid warming during the past 50 years may be causing instability to some Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves.     

Spatial-temporal characters of Antarctic sea ice variation

Using sea ice concentration dataset covering the period of 1968-2002 obtained from the Hadley Center of UK, this paper investigates characters of Antarctic sea ice variations .The finding demonstrates that the change of mean sea-ice extent is almost consistent with that of sea-ice area, so sea-ice extent can be chosen to go on this research. The maximum and the minimum of Antarctic sea ice appear in September and February respectively. The maximum and the maximal variation of sea ice appear in Weddell Sea and Ross Sea, while the minimum and the minimal variation of sea-ice appear in Antarctic Peninsula. In recent 35 years, as a whole, Antarctic sea ice decreased distinctly. Moreover, there are 5 subdivision characteristic regions considering their different variations. Hereinto, the sea-ice extent of Weddell Sea and Ross Sea regions extends and area increases, while the sea-ice extent of the other three regions contracts and area decreases. They are all of obvious 2-4 years and 5-7 years significant oscillation periods. It is of significance for further understanding the sea-ice-air interaction in Antarctica region and discussing the relationship between sea-ice variation and atmospheric circulation.     

北半球积雪/海冰面积与温度相关性的差异分析

积雪和海冰的时空变化对区域以及全球的气候、水文具有重要影响。基于雪冰数据和NCEP再分析气温数据,利用MK检验、滞后分析等方法,分析了积雪、海冰的时空变化特征及其与温度的相关特征。结果表明：1979-2013年,北半球积雪区、北极圈的年均温度呈显著上升的趋势,而积雪面积和海冰面积呈显著下降的趋势。在大部分地区,积雪覆盖频率随着温度的上升呈显著减少的趋势,但在中国长江中下游、青藏高原等局部地区,积雪覆盖频率随着温度的上升呈显著增加趋势。在大部分的近陆地海域,海冰覆盖频率随着温度的上升呈显著下降趋势。超前时间1~2个月的温度与海冰面积的负相关性最高。超前1~4个月的温度与积雪面积的负相关性最高。温度对海冰的影响时间比对积雪的影响时间长1~2个月。温度变化对海冰和积雪的影响存在一致性,但积雪和海冰对温度的响应时间存在差异,具有空间变异性。     

南极海冰的时空变化特征

依据Hadley中心提供的全球海冰密集度格点资料 ,利用诊断分析方法 ,对近 35年来南极海冰的时空变化特征进行了研究。研究表明 ,在南极地区 ,海冰平均北界和海冰总面积的变化基本一致 ,可以用海冰北界来研究南极海冰的时空变化特征。南极海冰最多和最少期分别出现在 9月和 2月 ;威德尔海和罗斯海地区海冰最多、变化最大 ,南极半岛地区海冰最少 ,变化也小 ;近 35年来环南极地区的海冰有明显的减少趋势。南极海冰变化的时空多样性十分明显 ,存在着 5个变化不同的区域 ,其中有两个区域近 35年来海冰范围扩大 ,面积增加 ,而另三个区域则海冰范围缩小 ,面积减少。不同区域的海冰都存在着较明显的 2- 3年和 5- 7年主振荡周期。南极海冰时空变化特征的研究对进一步认识南极地区海 冰 气相互作用的物理过程 ,讨论南极海冰变异与大气环流和天气气候的关系有重要意义     

A hindcast simulation of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice variability, 1955–2001

A hindcast simulation of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice variability during 1955-2001 has been performed with a global, coarse resolution ice-ocean model driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis daily surface air temperatures and winds. Both the mean state and variability of the ice packs over the satellite observing period are reasonably well reproduced by the model. Over the 47-year period, the simulated ice area (defined as the total ice-covered oceanic area) in each hemisphere experiences large decadal variability together with a decreasing trend of Ø1% per decade. In the Southern Hemisphere, this trend is mostly caused by an abrupt retreat of the ice cover during the second half of the 1970s and the beginning of the 1980s. The modelled ice volume also exhibits pronounced decadal variability, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Besides these fluctuations, we detected a downward trend in Arctic ice volume of 1.8% per decade and an upward trend in Antarctic ice volume of 1.5% per decade. However, caution must be exercised when interpreting these trends because of the shortness of the simulation and the strong decadal variations. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments have revealed that the trend in Antarctic ice volume is model-dependent.     

A "critical" climatic evaluation of last interglacial (MIS 5e) records from the Norwegian Sea

Sediment cores from the Norwegian Sea were studied to evaluate interglacial climate conditions of the marine isotope stage 5e (MIS 5e). Using planktic forminiferal assemblages as the core method, a detailed picture of the evolution of surface water conditions was derived. According to our age model, a step-like deglaciation of the Saalian ice sheets is noted between ca. 135 and 124.5 Kya, but the deglaciation shows little response with regard to surface ocean warming. From then on, the rapidly increasing abundance of subpolar forminifers, concomitant with decreasing iceberg indicators, provides evidence for the development of interglacial conditions sensu stricto (5e- ss ), a period that lasted for about 9 Ky. As interpreted from the foraminiferal records, and supported by the other proxies, this interval of 5e- ss was in two parts: showing an early warm phase, but with a fresher, i.e., lower salinity, water mass, and a subsequent cooling phase that lasted until ca. 118.5 Kya. After this time, the climatic optimum with the most intense advection of Atlantic surface water masses occurred until ca. 116 Kya. A rapid transition with two notable climatic perturbations is observed subsequently during the glacial inception. Overall, the peak warmth of the last interglacial period occurred relatively late after deglaciation, and at no time did it reach the high warmth level of the early Holocene. This finding must be considered when using the last interglacial situation as an analogue model for enhanced meridional transfer of ocean heat to the Arctic, with the prospect of a future warmer climate.     

南极冰盖表面冰流速研究综述

冰川表面流速作为南极冰盖物质平衡估算的一项重要内容,对于研究全球变暖背景下的海平面上升具有重要意义。随着技术的进步,南极的冰流速监测方法已经从传统的花杆测量、光学仪器边角测量,发展到先进的GPS测量和遥感观测。南极冰盖冰流速总体特征是:海岸带冰流速快于内陆冰流速,冰架冰流速快于陆地冰流速,西南极冰流速快于东南极冰流速。未来加强对数据稀疏地区的冰流速监测,扩大冰流速研究的时间尺度,开发冰流速研究的新方法以及构建冰流速波动与气候变化相互关系模型等,成为南极冰流速研究的新热点。     

Northern Hemisphere sea ice simulations by global climate models

The study described here is a synthesis of global climate model projections of Northern Hemisphere sea ice through the end of the 21st century. The synthesis includes an enhancement of the informational content of the projections from a set of five global atmosphere-ocean-ice models. The adjustments are based on the systematic errors in the models' present-day simulations relative to the HadISST observational data set. All models show decreases of sea ice through the 21st century when forced by the B2 scenario of greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations. However, the differences in the present-day ice coverage simulated by the models are sufficiently large that they dominate the across-model variances of the projected ice extents. The adjustments based on the present-day biases remove much of the spread among the projections. The decreases of the adjusted ice extent by the year 2100 range from about 12% to about 46%. The percentage decreases are larger in summer than in winter; much of the Arctic Ocean is ice-free at the time of the summer ice minimum by the year 2099.     

LATE‐GLACIAL GLACIER EVENTS IN SOUTHERNMOST SOUTH AMERICA: A BLEND OF ‘NORTHERN’ AND 'SOUTHERN’ HEMISPHERIC CLIMATIC SIGNALS?

ABSTRACT. This paper examines new geomorphological, chronological and modelling data on glacier fluctuations in southernmost South America in latitudes 46–55°S during the last glacial–interglacial transition. Establishing leads and lags between the northern and southern hemispheres and between southern mid‐latitudes and Antarctica is key to an appreciation of the mechanisms and resilience of global climate. This is particularly important in the southern hemisphere where there is a paucity of empirical data. The overall structure of the last glacial cycle in Patagonia has a northern hemisphere signal. Glaciers reached or approached their Last Glacial Maxima on two or more occasions at 25–23 ka (calendar) and there was a third less extensive advance at 17.5 ka. Deglaciation occurred in two steps at 17.5 ka and at 11.4 ka. This structure is the same as that recognized in the northern hemisphere and taking place in spite of glacier advances occurring at a time of high southern hemisphere summer insolation and deglaciation at a time of decreasing summer insolation. The implication is that at orbital time scales the‘northern’ signal dominates any southern hemisphere signal. During deglaciation, at a millennial scale, the glacier fluctuations mirror an antiphase 'southern’ climatic signal as revealed in Antarctic ice cores. There is a glacier advance coincident with the Antarctic Cold Reversal at 15.3–12.2 ka. Furthermore, deglaciation begins in the middle of the Younger Dryas. The implication is that, during the last glacial–interglacial transition, southernmost South America was under the influence of sea surface temperatures, sea ice and southern westerlies responding to conditions in the 'southern’ Antarctic domain. Such asynchrony may reflect a situation whereby, during deglaciation, the world is more sensitized to fluctuations in the oceanic thermohaline circulation, perhaps related to the bipolar seesaw, than at orbital timescales.     

南极洲维斯特福尔德丘陵与菲尔德斯半岛冰缘地貌的比较研究

东南极大陆沿岸的维斯特福尔德丘陵(68°22'～68°40'S,77°55'～78°30'E)和西南极乔治王岛南端的菲尔德斯半岛(62°08'～62°20'S,58°45'～58°58'W)的气候条件不同。前者属于极地大陆性气候,气温低,冬季严寒,干燥、风大,夏季较短;后者属于极地海洋性气候,气温不很低,湿润、风小,夏季较长。因此,两地的冰缘地貌的组合类型及其发育过程存在明显的差异。前者冰缘地貌单一,发展速度较慢;后者冰缘地貌复杂多样,发展速度较快。 本文根据实地观测资料,对极地大陆型和极地海洋型两类冰缘地貌作一些比较,并且提出,年冻融日数是决定冰缘作用强弱的最重要指标。     

Wisconsinan and Holocene Climate History from an Ice Core at Taylor Dome, Western Ross Embayment, Antarctica

Geochemical data and geophysical measurements from a 554-m ice-core from Taylor Dome, East Antarctica, provide the basis for climate reconstruction in the western Ross Embayment through the entire Wisconsinan and Holocene. In comparison with ice cores from central East and West Antarctica, Taylor Dome shows greater variance of temperature, snow accumulation, and aerosol concentrations, reflecting significant variability in atmospheric circulation and air mass moisture content. Extreme aridity during the last glacial maximum at Taylor Dome reflects both colder temperatures and a shift in atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the advance of the Ross Sea ice sheet and accounts for regional alpine glacier retreats and high lake levels in the Dry Valleys. Inferred relationships between spatial accumulation gradients and ice sheet configuration indicate that advance of the Ross Sea ice sheet began in late marine isotope stage 5 or early stage 4. Precise dating of the Taylor Dome core achieved by trace-gas correlation with central Greenland ice cores shows that abrupt deglacial warming at Taylor Dome was near-synchronous with the ∼14.6 ka warming in central Greenland and lags the general warming trend in other Antarctic ice cores by at least 3000 years. Deglacial warming was following by a warm interval and transient cooling between 14.6 and 11.7 ka, synchronous with the Bølling/Allerød warming and Younger Dryas cooling events in central Greenland, and out of phase with the Antarctic Cold Reversal recorded in the Byrd (West Antarctica) ice core. Rapid climate changes during marine isotope stages 4 and 3 at Taylor Dome are similar in character to, and may be in phase with, the Northern Hemisphere stadial–interstadial (Dansgaard–Oeschger) events. Results from Taylor Dome illustrate the importance of obtaining ice cores from multiple Antarctic sites, to provide wide spatial coverage of past climate and ice dynamics.     

Changes in the global cryosphere and their impacts: A review and new perspective

As one of the five components of Earth's climatic system, the cryosphere has been undergoing rapid shrinking due to global warming. Studies on the formation, evolution, distribution and dynamics of cryospheric components and their interactions with the human system are of increasing importance to society. In recent decades, the mass loss of glaciers, including the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, has accelerated. The extent of sea ice and snow cover has been shrinking, and permafrost has been degrading. The main sustainable development goals in cryospheric regions have been impacted. The shrinking of the cryosphere results in sea-level rise, which is currently affecting, or is soon expected to affect, 17 coastal megacities and some small island countries. In East Asia, South Asia and North America, climate anomalies are closely related to the extent of Arctic sea ice and snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. Increasing freshwater melting from the ice sheets and sea ice may be one reason for the slowdown in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the Arctic and Southern Oceans. The foundations of ports and infrastructure in the circum-Arctic permafrost regions suffer from the consequences of permafrost degradation. In high plateaus and mountainous regions, the cryosphere's shrinking has led to fluctuations in river runoff, caused water shortages and increased flooding risks in certain areas. These changes in cryospheric components have shown significant heterogeneity at different temporal and spatial scales. Our results suggest that the quantitative evaluation of future changes in the cryosphere still needs to be improved by enhancing existing observations and model simulations. Theoretical and methodological innovations are required to strengthen social economies' resilience to the impact of cryospheric change.     

南极海冰与我国夏季天气的关系

南极各区海冰变化不同,这种不同的变化必然对各区局地大气环流产生不同的影响,进而可能对全球气候系统产生不同的作用。本文利用Hadley中心提供的1968年1月-2002年12月全球海冰密集度格点资料,结合中央气象台的北半球500hPa、100hPa高度场资料以及中国160站降水、温度资料,利用诊断分析方法,分别对南极Ross海区和Weddell海区海冰与我国夏季天气的关系进行了研究。研究表明,南极Ross海区和Weddell海区海冰对我国夏季天气均具有指示意义。Ross海区是影响我国夏季东北地区降水的海冰关键区,若该区上一年9月海冰偏多,则来年6月我国东北降水偏少;Weddell海区是影响我国夏季东北温度的海冰关键区,若该区上一年9月海冰偏多,则来年6月我国东北温度偏低。     

南极地区冰雪消失对全球大气环流和气候影响的数值模拟

本文利用全球大气环流模式通过数值模拟研究了北半球夏季南极地区冰雪覆盖的消失对大气环流和全球气候影响的过程。结果表明南极冰雪消失不仅影响南半球大气环流异常,而且通过引起热带环流异常如增强东亚季风环流和减弱Walker环流等引起北半球大气环流和我国夏季气候的异常。南极冰雪覆盖的消失将给全球气候带来严重后果。文中也对南极冰雪气候效应的动力学机制进行了讨论。     

Temperature variation and its driving forces over the Antarctic coastal regions in the past 250 years

By comparing the oxygen isotopic temperatures recorded by many shallow ice cores from the coastal regions of Antarctica, this paper presents the special characteristics of the temperature variations over the Antarctic coastal regions in the past 50 years, 150 years and 250 years. In the past 50 years, the isotopic temperatures recorded in the ice cores over different sites on the Antarctic coastal regions differ greatly. For instance, although increasing isotopic temperatures have been reported for many sites studied, many sites show decreasing trends, the regional regularity in temperature variations is still insignificant. In the past 150 years, the isotopic temperature trends in the coastal regions of Antarctica show an alternate-distributing pattern. In the past 250 years, all the ice cores from the coastal regions of Antarctica have recorded the so-called Little Ice Age (LIA). The above-mentioned spatial characteristics of the temperature variations over the Antarctic coastal regions are likely to reflect the impacts of the unique Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) and the special terrain (such as the large drainage basins) on the coastal regions of Antarctica. Furthermore, the impacting intensity of the unique Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and the special terrain differs in terms of the temporal scale of the temperature change.     

南极冰盖物质平衡与海平面变化研究新进展

本文在简要介绍冰盖物质平衡及其对海平面影响的基础上,从整体法和分量法两个方面总结了南极冰盖物质平衡研究的最新进展,并分析了影响其物质平衡的不确定因素。研究表明,整个南极冰盖物质平衡呈现负增长的趋势,其中西南极Amundsen海湾附近的冰盖物质流失最为明显。另外,南极冰盖边缘的大部分地区还呈现变薄的趋势。南极冰盖物质流失是引起海平面上升的最大潜在因素之一,其冰架的缓冲作用、冰盖的不稳定性和冰盖底部融水的作用等不确定因素对南极冰盖物质平衡具有重要的影响。未来随着观测技术和数据处理技术的不断提高,南极冰盖物质平衡的估算及其不确定因素有望得到进一步的认识,从而为预测海平面的上升范围提供更多的理论和技术支撑。