近百年来中国冰川变化及其对气候变化的敏感性研究进展

冰川变化是气候变化的产物,也是气候变化的指示器.在全球变暖的背景下,近百年来我国冰川消融强烈,以退缩为主.本文对近百年来我国冰川末端退缩、物质平衡变化和冰川面积变化方面的研究成果进行了综合分析.从时间和空间两方面探讨了我国冰川变化对气候变化响应的敏感性.结果表明,我国冰川末端变化对气候变化的响应在时间上要滞后10～20年,冰川末端退缩、物质平衡变化和面积变化的幅度在青藏高原边缘和周边地区要大于高原内部,对气候变化响应的敏感性也由内部向边缘增强.最后指出了我国冰川变化研究中存在的主要问题及今后发展趋势.     

近百年海螺沟冰川退缩区域土壤CO2排放规律

贡嘎山东坡海螺沟冰川退缩地植被原生演替系列的样地调查基础上,用光合作用测定仪(美国产CI-301PS)的闭路方法测定土壤呼吸,并测定相关的生态因子。对植被原生演替过程中草本群落,川滇柳,冬瓜杨小树林,冬瓜杨中龄林,冬瓜杨成熟林,针阔混交林,云冷杉中龄林和云冷杉成熟林7个阶段的土壤呼吸速率进行连续3a的测定,它们的土壤CO2排放通量分别是51 67、39 70、56 45、58 89、85 22、120 26和158 65kgCO2/hm2·d-1。建立了7个阶段的土壤呼吸速率与温度的相关关系,认为未来大气温度升高将对同一气候区内的草地土壤呼吸影响最大,对演替过程中的落叶阔叶林土壤呼吸影响次之,对云冷杉林土壤呼吸影响最小。样地的形成年龄、生物量和净初级生产力这些与演替进程植物群落新陈代谢水平呈正相关的因素,才是决定样地土壤呼吸速率的主要因素,也是各样地之间土壤呼吸速率存在差异的主要原因。并将植被原生演替序列土壤CO2排放通量与国内外测定不同类型土壤呼吸速率的结果进行比较,认为Raich等人对温带针叶林土壤排放CO2通量的估测值偏低,对全球不同生态系统类型土壤排放CO2通量的差异估测不足。     

高山增水效应及其水资源意义

根据高山上云、雾、雨、雪、径流等水资源丰富现象，分析了高山冰川、植被、地形等与汽-水作用关系，提出高山增水效应概念和高山区水资源开发与保护的新思路。高大山体及其造成的垂向对流、高山冰川和高山植被共同作用形成了高山增水效应，并形成良性增水系统。山体愈高大，增水效应愈明显。对内陆干旱地区开发利用更多的高山水资源具有意义。     

自然植物被对气候变化响应的研究：综述

植被－气候关系的研究已经超越了植被地理学、植被生态学的研究范围，而成为全球变化研究的核内容之一，从而受到地理学家、生态学院等的广泛关注，并开展了大量的研究。本文概述了过去、现在和未来自然植被对气候变化响应研究的主要进展，阐述了自然植被响应气候变化，特别是未来全球气候变化的基本的可能结果。     

贡嘎山东坡不同海拔高度树轮宽度对气候变化的响应

树木生长对气候变化的响应机制是气候重建的基础,在不同的气候或环境背景下,树轮宽度对气候变化的响应不同,其响应随着地形或海拔等因素的变化而变化。利用采自贡嘎山东坡5个海拔高度的树轮样本建立了树轮宽度年表,并对年表特征、年轮宽度及其对气候要素的响应进行分析,探讨了该区树木径向生长对气候变化的响应关系。结果表明:年轮平均宽度具有随海拔高度的增加而减小的趋势,树轮宽度对气候要素的响应也具有海拔差异。在海拔3700m的森林上限树轮宽度与当年7月份平均温度显著正相关,在海拔3000m高度与3月份平均温度显著正相关,而在海拔2800m树轮宽度与气候因子之间没有显著的响应关系。通过与海螺沟冰川末端进退变化和文献记载的特殊气候年份对比发现,树轮宽度年表与海螺沟冰川进退变化及文献记录的特殊气候年份具有一定的一致性,宽度年表对气候变化具有一定的指示意义。     

自然植被对气候变化响应的研究:建模

预测性植被制图（PVM）是自然植被对气候变化响应建模的重要思想和方法，已为国外的许多生态学家、地理学家在开展全球变化的影响研究中所采用。本文在简述了PVM发展过程的基础上，对其方法进行了归纳，并探讨了PVM对气候-植被响应模型研究的作用。在文中作者特别强调地理信息系统（GIS）在自然植被对气候变化响应建模中的重要性，并对GIS支持下的构模方法和步骤进行了总结。     

牛背梁自然保护区林线不同海拔巴山冷杉径向生长对气候变化的响应

近年来气候变化对秦岭植被的影响已得到众多研究的证实,牛背梁作为秦岭东部主脊和国家级自然保护区,该地区亚高山林线植被对气候变化的生态响应现状尚未得到广泛关注。依照树木年代学原理,进行响应分析并建立回归模型,探讨了牛背梁林线关键树种巴山冷杉（Abies fargesii）年表特征及对气候响应的海拔分异特征。结果表明：（1）随海拔升高,树木生长对气候的敏感性逐渐上升,但轮宽年表的同步性和信号强度呈先下降后上升的特点。（2）不同海拔树轮宽度年表的气候响应结果基本一致,对气温的敏感性均较降水强,敏感时段为当年2～8月,差异主要体现在,高海拔树木受生长季末期8月气温的影响较重,中海拔树木受生长季前期3～4月降水和上年冬季10～11月气温的促进,而低海拔树木受初春1～2月降水的限制作用明显。（3）对比分析低、中、高海拔3个回归模型中显著因子的变化趋势,发现气候变化可以促进巴山冷杉生长季的提前,但不同海拔树木的生长动态各异,说明研究区林线不同海拔巴山冷杉生长对全球变化可能具有不同的响应机制。     

长江源区冰川对全球气候变化的响应

长江源区是青藏高原内部山地冰川集中分布的地区之一，其冰川储量都占长江流域冰川总量的一半以上。近几十年以来由于受全球气候变化的影响，长江源区气候呈暖干化的倾向，大多数冰川呈退缩状态，这对长江源区的生态环境产生深刻的影响，进而危及整个长江流域的生态安全。用英国Hadley气候预测与研究中心的GCM模型HADCM2预测长江源区未来的气候情景，结果显示在不同的实验条件下，气候都将由现在的暖干化趋势向暖湿化方向转变。通过建立长江源区对气候变化的响应模型，用来预测在未来气候情景下冰川变化的趋势，预计在本世纪的不同时期冰川零平衡线（雪线）将上升16－50m。     

1959-2008年新疆阿尔泰山友谊峰地区冰川变化特征

 利用1959年地形图、2008年ASTER数字遥感影像及数字高程模型,在地理信息系统技术支持下分析了新疆阿尔泰山友谊峰地区冰川的变化特征。研究表明：1959-2008年该区冰川整体呈萎缩趋势,且变化幅度相对较大。相对于1959年,2008年冰川面积和数量分别变化-32.5%和-27.9%。其中,小于1 km2的冰川面积平均变化率为-66.7%,面积小于0.5 km2的冰川面积变化率大于-70%,面积大于1 km2以上的冰川面积变化率为-35.0%,1~5 km2的冰川面积变化率为-27.9%。冰川末端平均后退253 m,末端退缩比例为-18.3%,且南坡冰川末端变化率大于北坡。分析发现,研究区冰川面积亏损较大主要缘于该区小冰川分布数量较多（面积小于1 km2的冰川数量达75%),对气候变化的响应较为敏感。     

自然植被对气候变化响应的研究:综述

植被-气候关系的研究已经超越了植被地理学、植被生态学的研究范围，而成为全球变化研究的核心内容之一，从而受到地理学家、生态学家等的广泛关注，并开展了大量的研究。本文概述了过去、现在和未来自然植被对气候变化响应研究的主要进展，阐述了自然植被响应气候变化，特别是未来全球气候变化的基本的可能结果。     

北极新奥尔松Austre Lovénbreen冰川退缩迹地不同演替阶段的植物组成与植被群落特征分析

为开展新奥尔松地区苔原植物生长和植被演替对冰川退缩响应的研究,在Austre Lovénbreen冰川(简称A冰川)前沿不同年代冰缘线附近布设了植被样方,调查了样方内植物组成与群落结构。结果表明:(1)A冰川1990年冰缘线代表植被演替的初始阶段,样方内仅出现先锋植物挪威虎耳草(Saxifraga oppositifolia);(2)1936年冰缘线代表冰川退缩长达75年后植被发育的情况,样方内植物种类和个体数明显增多,植被群落以木本植物极柳(Salix polaris)和草本植物黄葶苈(Draba bellii)为主,地衣以寒生肉疣衣(Ochrolechia frigida)和鸡皮衣(Pertusaria sp.)等壳状地衣为主;(3)随着冰川迹地形成时间更长,植被趋向成熟阶段发展,样方内极柳占绝对优势,地衣的物种多样性和盖度显著增加,出现雪黄岛衣(Flavocetraria nivalis)和刺岛衣(Cetraria aculeata)等叶状地衣。初步结果表明冰川退缩迹地上的物种更替明显,群落结构发生着显著变化。     

Vegetation development and carbon storage on a glacier foreland in the High Arctic, Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard

The distribution of organic carbon and its relationship to vegetation development were examined on a glacier foreland near Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard (79°N). In a 0.72-km² area, we established 43 study plots on three line transects along primary succession from recently deglaciated area to old well-vegetated area. At each plot, we measured the type and percent coverage of vegetation types. The organic carbon content of vegetation, organic soil, and mineral soil samples was determined based on their organic carbon concentration and bulk density. Cluster analysis based on vegetation coverage revealed five types of ground surfaces representing variations in the amounts and allocation patterns of organic carbon. In the later stages of succession, 7%–24% and 31%–40% of organic carbon was contained in the organic and deeper soil layers, respectively. Organic carbon storage in the later stages of succession ranged from 1.1 – 7.9 kg C m⁻². A larger amount of organic carbon, including ancient carbon in a raised beach deposit, was expected to be contained in much deeper soil layers. These results suggest that both vegetation development and geological history affect ecosystem carbon storage and that a non-negligible amount of organic carbon is distributed in this High Arctic glacier foreland.     

长白山圆池泥炭沼泽演变及环境信息记录

通过分析长白山圆池泥炭剖面总有机碳含量、总正构烷烃含量、奇偶优势指数、(C23+C25)含量和2C31/(C27+C29)比值,讨论了泥炭发育不同时期植物输入情况,同时结合210Pb测年建立的年代序列来探讨该区的气候变化规律.研究结果显示,约1400年前,气候干冷,圆池尚没有出现沼泽化;1400年开始,气候稍暖,少量植物输入,圆池开始沼泽化;约从1860年至今,气候逐步转暖,大量植物输入,圆池沼泽化速度加快.     

THE RESPONSE OF PARTIALLY DEBRIS‐COVERED VALLEY GLACIERS TO CLIMATE CHANGE: THE EXAMPLE OF THE PASTERZE GLACIER (AUSTRIA) IN THE PERIOD 1964 TO 2006

Long‐term observations of partly debris‐covered glaciers have allowed us to assess the impact of supra‐glacial debris on volumetric changes. In this paper, the behaviour of the partially debris‐covered, 3.6 km² tongue of Pasterze Glacier (47°05′N, 12°44′E) was studied in the context of ongoing climate changes. The right part of the glacier tongue is covered by a continuous supra‐glacial debris mantle with variable thicknesses (a few centimetres to about 1 m). For the period 1964–2000 three digital elevation models (1964, 1981, 2000) and related debris‐cover distributions were analysed. These datasets were compared with long‐term series of glaciological field data (displacement, elevation change, glacier terminus behaviour) from the 1960s to 2006. Differences between the debriscovered and the clean ice parts were emphasised. Results show that volumetric losses increased by 2.3 times between the periods 1964–1981 and 1981–2000 with significant regional variations at the glacier tongue. Such variations are controlled by the glacier emergence velocity pattern, existence and thickness of supra‐glacial debris, direct solar radiation, counter‐radiation from the valley sides and their changes over time. The downward‐increasing debris thickness is counteracting to a compensational stage against the common decrease of ablation with elevation. A continuous debris cover not less than 15 cm in thickness reduces ablation rates by 30–35%. No relationship exists between glacier retreat rates and summer air temperatures. Substantial and varying differences of the two different terminus parts occurred. Our findings clearly underline the importance of supra‐glacial debris on mass balance and glacier tongue morphology.     

Glacier Retreat, Mass-Balance and Thinning: Sermilik Glacier, South Greenland

This study documents thinning and retreat of the South Greenland ice margin and discusses possible reasons in the light of mass‐balance and change of dynamic conditions. Analyses of satellite images have shown that the glacier tongue of Sermilik glacier disintegrated within the past 15 years. Furthermore, the observed thinning close to the Sermilik glacier front was as much as 120 m water equivalent during this period. This figure was derived by comparing surface elevation data from a digital elevation model (1985) and laser altimeter measurements from the year 2000, showing surface elevation changes along a flow line of Sermilik glacier. Mass‐balance data from in situ measurements performed at a centre flow line of the glacier are presented. These data are compared to results from remote sensing analyses of the study area. Net ablation reconstruction over the last 41 years from positive‐degree‐day modelling, at various locations along the Sermilik glacier massbalance transect, shows an increase during the past decades. These analyses indicate that only 55% of the total thinning in this area can be explained by mass‐balance changes. The remaining 45% of the thinning is attributed to changes in the dynamic behaviour of the glacier, such as an increase of creep towards the end of the twentieth century. The significant thinning along the Qagssimiut lobe can also be explained as a combination of mass‐balance changes and changes in ice dynamic behaviour.     

2000—2014年喀喇昆仑山音苏盖提冰川表面高程变化

喀喇昆仑山区冰川由于存在正物质平衡或跃动、前进现象,被称之为“喀喇昆仑异常”,不过该地区冰川变化差异显著,尤其是大型表碛覆盖冰川,呈现与其他类型冰川明显的差异性响应,为理解喀喇昆仑冰川异常的机理,冰川尺度的详细变化研究十分必要。音苏盖提冰川位于喀喇昆仑山乔戈里峰北坡,是中国面积最大的冰川,是典型的大型表碛覆盖冰川。通过应用TanDEM-X/TerraSAR-X（2014年2月）与SRTM-X DEM（2000年2月）的差分干涉测量方法计算音苏盖提冰川表面高程变化,并结合冰川表面流速对冰川表面高程变化和跃动进行分析和讨论。结果表明：2000—2014年音苏盖提冰川表面高程平均下降了1.68±0.94 m,即冰川整体厚度在减薄,年变化率为-0.12±0.07 m·a^-1。冰川表面高程变化分布不均,其中南分支（S）冰流冰川整体减薄较为显著,冰川南分支冰流运动速度较快,前进/跃动的末端占据了冰川的主干,阻滞原主干冰川物质的向下运移（跃动）,导致原主干冰舌表面高程上升;冰川厚度减薄随着海拔升高先下降后保持稳定,同时呈现一定的波动性;低海拔表碛区域消融大于裸冰区,可能存在较薄表碛,因热传导高、覆盖大量冰面湖塘和冰崖存在,加速了冰川消融;在坡度小于30 °的区域,冰川厚度减薄随着坡度的减小而加剧;坡向朝南冰川厚度略微增加（0.01 m）,西南坡向冰川厚度略微减薄（-0.03 m）,其他坡向冰川厚度减薄明显。近14 a来,表碛覆盖的音苏盖提冰川表面高程整体下降表明物质处于亏损状态,冰川跃动导致局部冰川表面高程的增加。     

Flatisen,Svartisen: A Norwegian glacier in decline

ABSTRACT

The advance and retreat of glaciers, influenced by changes of local and regional climates, can result in dramatic landscape changes. The article, which follows up previous documentation of long-term studies at Svartisen, deals with changes of Flatisen: at the end of the 19th century, this was one of the largest glaciers of West Svartisen, and was supplied by accumulation areas that rose to > 1400 m a.s.l. It crossed the river Glomåga and ascended to 100 m above the valley floor. The river had a subglacial course until the 1920s. A proglacial lake, formed in front of the glacier in the 1930s and became larger throughout the rest of the 20th century. Changes of Flatisen between 1957 and 1990 were monitored during visits to the glacier. After the retreating front became inaccessible by land, photographs were taken. Early this century, the glacier retreated from the lake. A helicopter reconnaissance in July 2017 revealed that the surface was almost wholly below 1000 m a.s.l., the local equilibrium line altitude of recent years. Without a permanent accumulation zone, Flatisen is likely to disappear within the first half of the present century.     

Glacier area changes in the Nujiang-Salween River Basin over the past 45 years

Automated image classification and visual interpretation of Landsat imagery were used to extract the glacier boundary in the Nujiang-Salween River Basin (NSRB) around the years 1975, 2000, and 2020. The spatiotemporal characteristics of glacier area changes in the NSRB were determined and the reasons for the spatial heterogeneity in glacier area changes were discussed, based on comparative analyses of temperature and precipitation data from meteorological stations around the NSRB. The results indicate that 1) the total glacier area in the NSRB decreased by 477.78 km² (28.17%) at a rate of -0.62%/a in 1975-2020. Most shrinkage occurred at low and mid altitudes, with the most severe occurring at 5290-5540 m, accounting for 40% of the total shrinkage. Considering other river basins in China, the relative glacier area change rate in the NSRB was similar to that for typical inland river basins in northwest China but lower than that for other transboundary river basins in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. 2) These areal changes in the NSRB presented obvious regional differences. The glaciers in the Hengduan Mountains retreated significantly, followed by those in the Nyainqentanglha Mountains, with relatively low shrinkage observed in the Tanggula Mountains. The number of cold and hot spots indicating areal changes increased after 2000, along with their spatial heterogeneity. 3) The glacier shrinkage rate over different time intervals was positively correlated with temperature. Thus, spatial heterogeneity of climate change effects could elucidate differences in the glacier area change rate in different regions of the NSRB. The temperature rise was determined as the primary reason for the significant glacial retreat over the past 45 years. As the significant warming trend continues, the glacier area in the NSRB is likely to shrink further.     

Inter-annual variations in vegetation and their response to climatic factors in the upper catchments of the Yellow River from 2000 to 2010

To understand the variations in vegetation and their correlation with climate factors in the upper catchments of the Yellow River, China, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index（NDVI） time series data from 2000 to 2010 were collected based on the MOD13Q1 product. The coefficient of variation, Theil–Sen median trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall test were combined to investigate the volatility characteristic and trend characteristic of the vegetation. Climate data sets were then used to analyze the correlation between variations in vegetation and climate change. In terms of the temporal variations, the vegetation in this study area improved slightly from 2000 to 2010, although the volatility characteristic was larger in 2000–2005 than in 2006–2010. In terms of the spatial variation, vegetation which is relatively stable and has a significantly increasing trend accounts for the largest part of the study area. Its spatial distribution is highly correlated with altitude, which ranges from about 2000 to 3000 m in this area. Highly fluctuating vegetation and vegetation which showed a significantly decreasing trend were mostly distributed around the reservoirs and in the reaches of the river with hydropower developments. Vegetation with a relatively stable and significantly decreasing trend and vegetation with a highly fluctuating and significantly increasing trend are widely dispersed. With respect to the response of vegetation to climate change, about 20–30% of the vegetation has a significant correlation with climatic factors and the correlations in most areas are positive： regions with precipitation as the key influencing factor account for more than 10% of the area; regions with temperature as the key influencing factor account for less than 10% of the area; and regions with precipitation and temperature as the key influencing factors together account for about 5% of the total area. More than 70% of the vegetation has an insignificant correlation with climatic factors.     

东帕米尔高原昆盖山跃动冰川遥感监测研究

冰川跃动是冰川周期性地快速运动,给下游生命财产安全带来巨大威胁。对已经发现的跃动冰川进行监测不仅有助于提高对冰川跃动机理的认识,而且对冰川跃动灾害预警预报和风险评估都具有重要的意义。在中国第二次冰川编目中发现,1963-2009年东帕米尔高原昆盖山的5Y663L0023冰川末端发生大幅前进。本文利用Landsat影像、ASTER立体像对等数据对该冰川前进过程进行监测研究。结果表明：该冰川于1990-1992年和2007-2013年分别前进81±30 m和811±30 m,其中2007-2013年的前进属于跃动引发的前进。其中跃动最高峰在2007年8月21日-2008年10月26日,期间32.7×10⁶ m³的冰体发生卸载,导致末端前进了704±30 m,面积扩张了0.34 km²。针对东帕米尔地区跃动冰川周期研究的空白,本文认为该冰川跃动周期中跃动期为4 a,平静期最短为15 a左右。该冰川属于多温型冰川,跃动受热力学机制影响的可能性较大,但液态降水、冰雪融水的增加也是影响因素。