Estimation of Strong Ground Motion from a Great Earthquake Mw 8.5 in Central Seismic Gap Region, Himalaya (India) Using Empirical Green’s Function Technique

In the present study ground motions for a Mw 8.5 scenario earthquake are estimated at 13 sites in Kumaun-Garhwal region using the empirical Green’s function technique. The recordings of 1991 Uttarkashi earthquake of Mw 6.8 at these sites are used as an element earthquake. A heterogeneous source model consisting of two asperities is considered for simulating the ground motions. The entire central seismic gap (CSG) can expect acceleration in excess of 100 cm/s² with NW portion in excess of 400 cm/s² and SE between 100 and 200 cm/s². The central portion can expect peak ground acceleration (PGA) between 200 and 400 cm/s². It has been observed from simulation of strong ground motion that sites located near the rupture initiation point can expect accelerations in excess of 1g. In the present analysis, Bhatwari and Uttarkashi can expect ground accelerations in excess of 1g. The estimates of the PGA are compared with earlier studies in the same region using different methodologies and it was found that the results are comparable. This has put constrains on the expected PGAs in this region. The obtained PGA values can be used in identifying the vulnerable areas in the central Himalaya, thereby facilitating the planning, design and construction of new structures and strengthening of the existing structures in the region.     

Source study of two small earthquakes of Delhi, India, and estimation of ground motion from future moderate, local events

We study source characteristics of two small, local earthquakes which occurred in Delhi on 28 April 2001 (Mw3.4) and 18 March 2004 (Mw2.6). Both earthquakes were located in the heart of New Delhi, and were recorded in the epicentral region by digital accelerographs. The depths of the events are 15 km and 8 km, respectively. First motions and waveform modeling yield a normal-faulting mechanism with large strike-slip component. The strike of one of the nodal planes roughly agrees with NE–SW orientation of faults and lineaments mapped in the region. We use the recordings of the 2004 event as empirical Green’s functions to synthesize expected ground motions in the epicentral region of a Mw5.0 earthquake in Delhi. It is possible that such a local event may control the hazard in Delhi. Our computations show that a Mw5.0 earthquake would give rise to PGA of ~200 to 450 gal, the smaller values occurring at hard sites. The estimate of corresponding PGV is ~6 to 15 cm/s. The recommended response spectra, Sa, 5% damping, for Delhi, which falls in zone IV of the Indian seismic zoning map, may not be conservative enough at soft sites for a postulated Mw5.0 local earthquake.     

Seismotectonic study of Kishtwar region of Jammu Province using local broadband seismic data

Two moderate earthquakes of Mw 5.7 on the first of May and Mw 5.2 on the second of August occurred in the Kishtwar region in the year 2013. Our broadband seismic observatories located in the region recorded these events and the aftershocks. We analyzed these data to understand the seismotectonics of this region. Most of the events were located between 33.03° to 33.29° N latitude and 75.40° to 76.07° E longitude. Focal depths of these shallow earthquakes range from 7 to 12 km and are confined between Panjal Thrust (PT) and Kishtwar Window (KW). Spectral analysis of these events reveals that stress drop, source radius, corner frequency, and moment magnitude varied between 3.3 and 70.1 bars, 0.121 and 3.55 km, 0.397 and 6.06 Hz, and Mw 2.2 and Mw 5.7, respectively. The low stress drop of small-magnitude earthquakes reveals the brittle nature of the upper crust which is coincident with the field observations. The variation of stress drop with magnitude shows positive correlation whereas no such relation was observed between stress drop and depth of focus. The b value calculated (0.83) for the area reveals high stress accumulation within the incompetent rock zones in the area.     

Earthquake-reactivated landslide scenarios in Southern Italy based on spectral-matching input analysis

The Tyrrhenian portion of the Calabria region (southern Italy) is particularly prone to landslides as a consequence of intense morphodynamic processes. These processes affect the slopes that are composed of highly jointed metamorphic rock masses. Moreover, the frequent intense rainfalls and the up to Mw 7.0 regional earthquakes represent the main landslide triggering factors. An area of approximately $45\,\hbox {km}^{2}$ was selected as a test site in the context of a regional project aimed at reconstructing possible earthquake-reactivated landslide scenarios (i.e., referred to already existing landslide masses). An inventory map led to the identification of 175 landslides, including rock slides, earth slides and rock falls. Ground-motion scenarios based on a spectral-matching method were derived to evaluate the expected earthquake-induced displacements of the existing landslides. Naturally recorded acceleration time histories were selected from international ground-motion databases based on a similarity index and considered representative of the seismological features of the considered seismic sources (i.e., epicentral distance, magnitude, focal mechanism). Spectral attenuation was considered, according to well-established attenuation laws, to define the expected response spectrum at the outcropping bedrock corresponding to each existing landslide. Subsequently, the selected natural records were modified to guarantee spectral matching with the attenuated response spectra at each landslide site. The derived time histories were used to compute co-seismic displacements via the classic Newmark’s sliding-block method. Different scenarios of co-seismic landslide displacements or collapse were generated for different pore-water pressure hypotheses. The strongest $\hbox {Mw}>6$ seismic scenario (Messina Straits seismogenic source) indicated an exceedance probability of earthquake-induced co-seismic landslide collapse varying from 20 to 55 % with the increasing severity of the pore-water pressures. This probability corresponds to a percentage of co-seismic landslide displacements up to 40 % of the total inventoried landslides. The exceedance probability indicated that co-seismic landslide collapse drops below 20 % for $\hbox {Mw}<6$ seismic scenarios. In contrast, if a uniform probability is assumed for the seismic action occurrence, i.e., return periods of 475 and 2,475 years, the total percentage of landslide co-seismic displacements could be as high as 70 and 90 %, respectively, for the considered pore-water pressures.     

Investigating the role of source mechanism,surface topography,and attenuation on the observed PGA pattern in May 28, 2004, Mw 6.2 Baladeh earthquake (Iran)

In this paper, we use seismic waveform simulation to investigate the influence of source mechanism complexity, surface topography, and quality factor on the observed peak ground motions in May 28, 2004, moment magnitude (Mw) 6.2 Baladeh earthquake. The observed peak ground acceleration (PGA) pattern in this event, which is the biggest earthquake to hit the Central Alborz Mountains of Iran in modern instrumental era, is irregular in some respects. First, the observed PGA contours are elongated toward north-west and, second, the maximum observed PGA value of 1049 cm/s² on the horizontal component of Hasan Keyf station 50 km away from the epicenter is quite high and irregular for an earthquake of this magnitude, at such long distance. In this study, we employ the spectral element method, implemented in SPECFEM3D software package to simulate the 3D wave propagation from several source models in the area. Our results suggest directivity effect is the main cause of the anomalous observations in this earthquake and could account for the elongation of PGA contours and also the anomalous maximum PGA value observed at Hasan Keyf strong motion station. We show that the surface topography has minor effect on the observed peak ground acceleration and the resulting PGA maps. Also by finding the bounds of seismic quality factor effect on the peak ground acceleration values, we show that this factor could not account for the elongation of iso-acceleration contours in the north-west direction.     

Probability of Peak Ground Horizontal and Peak Ground Vertical Accelerations at Tehran and Surrounding Areas

The active faults near Tehran are capable of producing Mw magnitudes of 6.62?C7.23; at epicentral distances of 25?km from the active faults, and Mw?=?7.23, the peak ground horizontal acceleration, PGH, is between 386 and 730?cm/s² and peak ground vertical acceleration, PGV, is between 192 and 261?cm/s²; the historic earthquake of the fourth century BC, Mw?=?7.16 produced the highest estimated PGH acceleration in Tehran, between 254 and 479?cm/s² and PGV acceleration between 127 and 173?cm/s². Earthquakes from 1909 to 2008, within 300?km from Tehran, are used for calculation of magnitude frequency relation, and results are applied to estimate PGH and PGV accelerations as a function of magnitudes for a set of fixed epicentral distance and site conditions; also as a function of epicentral distances for a set of fixed magnitudes and site conditions. Poisson??s distribution is used for probability calculation of PGH and PGV accelerations for several exposure times, site conditions and epicentral distances; accelerations with very high probability, near 1, are presented. At an epicentral distance of 10?km and exposure time of 450?years, in the northern part of Tehran, close to Mosha and the Northern Tehran faults, PGH acceleration is 800?C420?cm/s² and PGV is 400?C220?cm/s² with high probability. At an epicentral distance of 25?km and 1,000?years exposure time, PGH is 610?C320?cm/s² and PGV is 310?C160?cm/s² with high probability, where larger values are for soft soil and smaller values are for hard rock.     

Empirical seismic vulnerability assessment of Icelandic buildings affected by the 2000 sequence of earthquakes

In June 2000, two Mw6.5 earthquakes occurred within a 4-day interval in the largest agricultural region of Iceland causing substantial damage and no loss of life. The distance between the earthquake epicentres and the fault rupture was approximately 15 km. Nearly 5000 low-rise residential buildings were affected, some of which were located between the faults and exposed to strong ground motion from both events. The post-earthquakes damage and repair costs for every residential building in the epicentral region were assessed for insurance purposes. The database is detailed and complete for the whole region and represents one of the best quality post-earthquake vulnerability datasets used for seismic loss estimation. Nonetheless, the construction of vulnerability curves from this database is hampered by the fact that the loss values represent the cumulative damage from two sequential earthquakes in some areas, and single earthquakes in others. A novel methodology based on beta regression is proposed here in order to define the geographical limits on areas where buildings sustained cumulative damage and predict the seismic losses for future sequence of events in each area. The results show that the average building loss in areas affected by a single event is below 10% of the building replacement value, whilst this increases to an average of 25% in areas affected by the two earthquakes. The proposed methodology can be used to empirically assess the vulnerability in other areas which experienced sequence of events such as Emilia-Romagna (Italy) in 2012.     

Evidence of nonlinear site response in horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio from near-field earthquakes

The issue is addressed as to whether the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) method is sensitive to the amplitude of ground motion from near-field earthquakes. Twenty-one three-component accelerograms from two closely located similar soil sites in the town of Lefkas are used. The recordings represent 17 earthquakes covering a wide range of magnitudes, epicentral distances and azimuths. Peak horizontal accelerations (PGA) and velocities (PGV) lie in the ranges 20–540 cm/s² and 1.4–55.2 cm/s. For each HVS ratio, the site's fundamental-resonance frequency, f_res, is determined visually. Linear correlation analysis shows that f_res is strongly (negatively) correlated to PGA and PGV (r between −0.7 and −0.8); no correlation is found with resonance amplitude or epicentral distance. We show that the observed correlation is attributable to soil nonlinearity and indicate how weak-motion estimates of f_res can be corrected for use in assessing site response during strong shaking.     

Slip Distribution and Seismic Moment of the 2010 and 1960 Chilean Earthquakes Inferred from Tsunami Waveforms and Coastal Geodetic Data

The slip distribution and seismic moment of the 2010 and 1960 Chilean earthquakes were estimated from tsunami and coastal geodetic data. These two earthquakes generated transoceanic tsunamis, and the waveforms were recorded around the Pacific Ocean. In addition, coseismic coastal uplift and subsidence were measured around the source areas. For the 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake, inversion of the tsunami waveforms recorded at nearby coastal tide gauge and Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) stations combined with coastal geodetic data suggest two asperities: a northern one beneath the coast of Constitucion and a southern one around the Arauco Peninsula. The total fault length is approximately 400 km with seismic moment of 1.7 × 10²² Nm (Mw 8.8). The offshore DART tsunami waveforms require fault slips beneath the coasts, but the exact locations are better estimated by coastal geodetic data. The 22 May 1960 earthquake produced very large, ~30 m, slip off Valdivia. Joint inversion of tsunami waveforms, at tide gauge stations in South America, with coastal geodetic and leveling data shows total fault length of ~800 km and seismic moment of 7.2 × 10²² Nm (Mw 9.2). The seismic moment estimated from tsunami or joint inversion is similar to previous estimates from geodetic data, but much smaller than the results from seismic data analysis.     

A new seismic hazard assessment in the region of Andalusia (Southern Spain)

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Andalusia (Southern Spain) in terms of peak ground acceleration, PGA, and spectral accelerations, SA(T), is presented in this paper. In contrast to most of the previous studies in the region, which were performed for PGA, making use of Intensity-to-PGA relationships, hazard was here calculated in terms of magnitude, using published spectral ground-motion models. Moreover, we considered different ground-motion models for the Atlantic sources, since the attenuation of those motions seems to be slower, as evidenced in the case of the extensive macroseismic areas of earthquakes like those occurred in the years 1755, 1969 and 2007. A comprehensive review of the seismic catalogue and of the seismogenic models proposed for the region was carried out, including those for Northern Africa, which is part of the influence area. Hazard calculations were performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology using a logic tree, which accounts for six different seismic source zonings and five different ground-motion attenuation relationships. Hazard maps in terms of PGA and SA (0.2 s) and SA (1 s) and coefficient of variation (COV) maps, for the 475-year return period were first obtained in rock sites. A geotechnical classification and amplification factors were proposed and new hazard maps including local effects were represented, showing PGA values ranging from 24 to 370 cm/s² for the whole Andalusian territory, with the highest expected values (PGA > 300 cm/s²) in some parts of the Granada Province and in the town of Vélez Málaga. Lowest values (PGA < 50 cm/s²) correspond to some towns of the Huelva and Córdoba provinces. The inclusion of soil effects provides a more detailed picture of the actual hazard the region is subjected to.     

Field survey around strong motion stations and its implications on the seismic intensity in the Lushan earthquake on April 20, 2013

The M _s7.0 Lushan earthquake on April 20, 2013 is another destructive event in China since the M _s8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 and M _s7.1 Yushu earthquake in 2010. A large number of strong motion recordings were accumulated by the National Strong Motion Observation Network System of China. The maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) at Station 51BXD in Baoxing Country is recorded as ?1,005.3 cm/s², which is even larger than the maximum one in the Wenchuan earthquake. A field survey around three typical strong motion stations confirms that the earthquake damage is consistent with the issued map of macroseismic intensity. For the oscillation period 0.3–1.0 s which is the common natural period range of the Chinese civil building, a comparison shows that the observed response spectrums are considerably smaller than the designed values in the Chinese code and this could be one of the reasons that the macroseismic intensity is lower than what we expected despite the high amplitude of PGAs. The Housner spectral intensities from 16 stations are also basically correlated with their macroseismic intensities, and the empirical distribution of spectral intensities from Lushan and Wenchuan Earthquakes under the Chinese scale is almost identical with those under the European scale.     

Two large earthquakes in western Switzerland in the sixteenth century: 1524 in Ardon (VS) and 1584 in Aigle (VD)

The Valais is the most seismically active region of Switzerland. Strong damaging events occurred in 1755, 1855, and 1946. Based on historical documents, we discuss two known damaging events in the sixteenth century: the 1524 Ardon and the 1584 Aigle earthquakes. For the 1524, a document describes damage in Ardon, Plan-Conthey, and Savièse, and a stone tablet at the new bell tower of the Ardon church confirms the reconstruction of the bell tower after the earthquake. Additionally, a significant construction activity in the Upper Valais churches during the second quarter of the sixteenth century is discussed that however cannot be clearly related to this event. The assessed moment magnitude Mw of the 1524 event is 5.8, with an error of about 0.5 units corresponding to one standard deviation. The epicenter is at 46.27 N, 7.27 E with a high uncertainty of about 50 km corresponding to one standard deviation. The assessed moment magnitude Mw of the 1584 main shock is 5.9, with an error of about 0.25 units corresponding to one standard deviation. The epicenter is at 46.33 N and 6.97 E with an uncertainty of about 25 km corresponding to one standard deviation. Exceptional movements in the Lake Geneva wreaked havoc along the shore of the Rhone delta. The large dimension of the induced damage can be explained by an expanded subaquatic slide with resultant tsunami and seiche in Lake Geneva. The strongest of the aftershocks occurred on March 14 with magnitude 5.4 and triggered a destructive landslide covering the villages Corbeyrier and Yvorne, VD.     

Coseismic Fault Slip of the September 16, 2015 <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mw</Emphasis> 8.3 Illapel,Chile Earthquake Estimated from InSAR Data

The complete surface deformation of 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel, Chile earthquake is obtained using SAR interferograms obtained for descending and ascending Sentinel-1 orbits. We find that the Illapel event is predominantly thrust, as expected for an earthquake on the interface between the Nazca and South America plates, with a slight right-lateral strike slip component. The maximum thrust-slip and right-lateral strike slip reach 8.3 and 1.5 m, respectively, both located at a depth of 8 km, northwest to the epicenter. The total estimated seismic moment is 3.28 × 10²¹ N.m, corresponding to a moment magnitude Mw 8.27. In our model, the rupture breaks all the way up to the sea-floor at the trench, which is consistent with the destructive tsunami following the earthquake. We also find the slip distribution correlates closely with previous estimates of interseismic locking distribution. We argue that positive coulomb stress changes caused by the Illapel earthquake may favor earthquakes on the extensional faults in this area. Finally, based on our inferred coseismic slip model and coulomb stress calculation, we envision that the subduction interface that last slipped in the 1922 Mw 8.4 Vallenar earthquake might be near the upper end of its seismic quiescence, and the earthquake potential in this region is urgent.     

Diversity of the 2014 Iquique’s foreshocks and aftershocks: clues about the complex rupture process of a Mw 8.1 earthquake

We study the foreshocks and aftershocks of the 1 April 2014 Iquique earthquake of Mw 8.1. Most of these events were recorded by a large digital seismic network that included the Northern Chile permanent network and up to 26 temporary broadband digital stations. We relocated and computed moment tensors for 151 events of magnitude Mw?≥?4.5. Most of the foreshocks and aftershocks of the Iquique earthquake are distributed to the southwest of the rupture zone. These events are located in a band of about 50 km from the trench, an area where few earthquakes occur elsewhere in Chile. Another important group of aftershocks is located above the plate interface, similar to those observed during the foreshock sequence. The depths of these events were constrained by regional moment tensor (RMT) solutions obtained using the records of the dense broad band network. The majority of the foreshocks and aftershocks were associated to the interplate contact, with dip and strike angles in good agreement with the characteristics of horst and graben structures (>2000 m offset) typical of the oceanic Nazca Plate at the trench and in the outer rise region. We propose that the spatial distribution of foreshocks and aftershocks, and its seismological characteristics were strongly controlled by the rheological and tectonics conditions of the extreme erosive margin of Northern Chile.     

Evidence of nonlinear site response in HVSR from SMART1 (Taiwan) data

Deamplification of strong motion and the increase of the effective period of soil deposits are typical nonlinear effects; we seek them in SMART1-array data by applying the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) technique. The recordings, from four soil and one rock stations, represent 23 earthquakes (M_L 4.9–7.0); PGA varies between 20–260 cm/s². For each station, mean HVSR curves are calculated for two PGA ranges: <75 cm/s² and >100 cm/s² (weak and strong motion). At the soil stations, the “weak” (linear) and “strong” (nonlinear) responses are significantly different. Below 1–1.8 Hz, the nonlinear response exceeds the linear one. Above 2 Hz, the nonlinear response drops below the linear one and above 4–6 Hz below unity (deamplification). From 10 to 16 Hz, the two responses converge. One soil site shows significant negative correlation between resonance frequency and ground acceleration. Such behaviour agrees with other empirical studies and theoretical predictions. Our results imply that the HVSR technique is sensitive to ground-motion intensity and can be used to detect and study nonlinear site response.     

On the ability of Moho reflections to affect the ground motion in northeastern Italy: a case study of the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence

It has been observed that post-critically reflected S-waves and multiples from the Moho discontinuity could play a relevant role on the ground motion due to medium to strong size earthquakes away from the source. Although some studies investigated the correlation between the Moho reflections amplitudes and the damage in the far field, little attention was given to the frequency content of these specific phases and their scaling with magnitude. The 2012 Emilia seismic sequence in northern Italy, recorded by velocimetric and accelerometric networks, is here exploited to investigate Moho reflections and multiples (SmSM). A single station method for group velocity-period estimation, based on the multiple filter technique, is applied to strong motion data to detect SmSM. Amplitude and frequency scaling with magnitude is defined for earthquakes from \(\hbox {Mw}=3.9\) to \(\hbox {Mw}=5.9\) . Finally, the ability of SmSM to affect the ground motion for a maximum credible earthquake within the Po plain is investigated by extrapolating observed engineering parameters. Data analysis shows that high amplitude SmSM can be recognized within the Po plain, and at the boundaries between the Po plain and the Alpine chain, at epicentral distances larger than 80 km, in the period range from 0.25 to 3 s and in the group velocity window from about 2.6 to 3.2 km/s. 5 % damped pseudo-spectral accelerations at different periods (0.3, 1.0 and 2.0 s), and Housner intensities, are obtained from data characterized by large amplitude SmSM. A scaling relationship for both pseudo-spectral accelerations and Housner intensities is found for the earthquakes of the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence. \(\hbox {I}_{\mathrm{MCS}}\) from VII to VIII is estimated, as a result of SmSM amplitude enhancement, at about 100 km for a maximum credible earthquake ( \(\hbox {Mw}=6.7\) ) in the Po plain, showing that moderate to high damage cloud be caused by these specific phases.     

Earthquake early warning feasibility in the Campania region (southern Italy) and demonstration system for public school buildings

We present the results of a feasibility study of an earthquake early warning system (EEWS) for the Campania region (southern Italy) using schools as specific targets. The study considered the seismogenic zones as sources of potential earthquakes for the area, the Italian accelerometric network as the recording network for seismic event occurrence, and the performances of the software platform PRESTo ^Plus for data analysis and processing. We analyze the distribution of lead-times for all possible threatening seismic sources for each municipality in the region under study by extracting the lead-time value corresponding to the 5th, 10th and 25th percentiles of the distributions. We discuss the results for the 5th percentile in order to analyze the worst-case scenario: in the case of a single site, the lead-time is expected to be larger than this value in the 95 % of the cases. Since the population distribution in Campania is uneven and most of the people live nearby the coast, whilst the most destructive earthquakes occur along the Apennine chain, we can conclude that an efficient EEWS can allow most of the schools in the area to undertake some mitigating actions. The testing of the EEWS was carried out in the high school ITIS ‘E. Majorana’, located at Somma Vesuviana, about 80 km from the seismogenic Irpinia region. For this purpose, the Sentinel, an actuator made up of low-cost hardware (i.e., Arduino^®), was developed in close cooperation with students and teachers of the school to receive alert messages from the PRESTo ^Plus platform and warn the school users in case of a seismic event. The EEWS and the Sentinel were successfully tested during some blind drills performed during normal school activities.     

Performance of masonry buildings during the Emilia 2012 earthquake

The earthquake sequence started on May \(20\) th 2012 in Emilia (Italy) affected a region where masonry constructions represent a large part of the existing building stock and the construction of new modern masonry buildings is a common practice. The paper is focused on the performance of common architectural configurations, typical for residential or business use. The large majority of old masonry buildings is made of fired clay bricks. The seismic performance of these buildings is particularly interesting since major past earthquakes in Italy affected areas with mainly stone masonry structures. Apart from examples showing systematic or peculiar structural deficiencies governing the vulnerability of several buildings, the overall seismic performance of these structures to repeated shaking, with PGA as large as 0.25–0.3 g was rather good, despite the major part of them were only conceived for carrying vertical loads. In fact, seismic design is mandatory in the area only since 2003. Modern low-rise masonry buildings erected after this date and incorporating seismic design and proper detailing resulted in most cases practically undamaged. The examples reported in the paper allow an evaluation of the superior performance of seismically designed modern masonry buildings in comparison to older ones.     

Seismic hazard assessment in continental Ecuador

A seismic hazard assessment study of continental Ecuador is presented in this paper. The study begins with a revision of the available information on seismic events and the elaboration of a seismic catalog homogenized to magnitude Mw. Different seismic source definitions are revised and a new area-source model, based on geological and seismic data, is proposed. The available ground motion prediction equations for crustal and subduction sources are analyzed and selected for the tectonic environments observed in Ecuador. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approach is carried out to evaluate the exceedance probability of several levels of peak ground acceleration PGA and spectral accelerations SA (T) for periods (T) of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1 and 2s. The resulting hazard maps for continental Ecuador are presented, together with the uniform hazard spectra of four province capital cities. Hazard disaggregation is carried out for target motions defined by the PGA values and SA (1s) expected for return periods of 475 and 2475 years, providing estimates for short-period and long-period controlling earthquakes.     

Observations of seismic activity in Southern Lebanon

Recent seismic activity in southern Lebanon is of particular interest since the tectonic framework of this region is poorly understood. In addition, seismicity in this region is very infrequent compared with the Roum fault to the east, which is seismically active. Between early 2008 and the end of 2010, intense seismic activity occurred in the area. This was manifested by several swarm-like sequences and continuous trickling seismicity over many days, amounting in total to more than 900 earthquakes in the magnitude range of 0.5?≤?M _d?≤?5.2. The region of activity extended in a 40-km long zone mainly in a N-S direction and was located about 10 km west of the Roum fault. The largest earthquake, with a duration magnitude of M _d?=?5.2, occurred on February 15, 2008, and was located at 33.327° N, 35.406° E at a depth of 3 km. The mean-horizontal peak ground acceleration observed at two nearby accelerometers exceeded 0.05 g, where the strongest peak horizontal acceleration was 55 cm/s² at about 20 km SE of the epicenter. Application of the HypoDD algorithm yielded a pronounced N-S zone, parallel to the Roum fault, which was not known to be seismically active. Focal mechanism, based on full waveform inversion and the directivity effect of the strongest earthquake, suggests left-lateral strike-slip NNW-SSE faulting that crosses the NE-SW traverse faults in southern Lebanon.